Master’s Thesis

Climate Change Impact on Ratu River Flooding and its Effects on Communities’ Life, Livelihood and People Led Adaptation

Dinesh Kumar Shah

Nepal Engineering College Changunarayan, Bhaktapur Pokhara University Nepal

February, 2019

Climate Change Impact on Ratu River Flooding and its Effects on Communities’ Life, Livelihood and People Led Adaptation

By

Dinesh Kumar Shah PU Registration No: 2017-1-50-0007 Exam Roll No: 17500007

A thesis submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science (M.Sc.) in Interdisciplinary Water Resources Management awarded by Pokhara University

Nepal Engineering College Changunarayan, Bhaktapur Pokhara University Nepal

February, 2019

Dedication

I would like to dedicate this thesis to my family. ABSTRACT

Riverine and flashflood cause more damage to life, livelihood and infrastructure annually than any other calamities, which is exaggerated by changing extreme weather in recent past. Hence, they constitute the main hazard. On this ground this study attempted to look dynamics of flood and damages caused to Communities’ life, livelihood resources and adaptive practice of the people living in Mahottari and Dhanusha District of Ratu watershed. This study also aimed to assess the impacts of land use and land cover change (LULCC) on flooding and change in climatic trend, if any, in the Ratu watershed. The study involved analysis of LULCC using land use map and analysis of time series data of rainfall and temperature (Jaleshwar and Tulsi meteorology stations) of Ratu watershed. Focus Group Discussion (FGD), Key Informants Interview with the representative of Government officials, local NGO, local elected bodies and field observation of study area were carried out.

Tulsi, being located in North receives more rainfall (average annual 1706 mm) because of orographic effect, while Jaleshwar receives 970 mm on and average. Temperature records t Jaleshwar shows maximum temperature range of 34 to 38°C between April to June. Similarly the minimum temperature ranges fron 8 to 12°C during December to February. The observed increased trend in minimum temperature indicates hotter winter than past. In addition, people perception on increased heat waves in summer, increase in frequency of high intensity rainfall, and drying of surface water are indication of climate change impacts in Ratu watershed. In twenty years (1996 to 2016) buildup area has increased from 3.9 to 17.95 sq.km (360 %) while forested area decreased from 128.04 to 123.76 sq.km. Sand cover has decreased from 31.39 to 20.65 sq.km attributed to flood control measures. This shows people have encroached to the flood plain after confinement of water flow by embankments. LULCC, excavation of the river resources such as sand and gravel from easily accessible places (bridges and settlements), and development of infrastructure without due consideration to draining the natural flow of water are some of the reasons for an increase in the frequency and magnitude of flood and river-bank cutting in the watershed. People’s perception revealed increase in flood frequency and resultant losses. In the upstream, Dhanusha located at lower elevation than Mahottari suffer more from frequent flooding. Some of the recent devastating floods in the memory of people were those of 1977, 1981, 1988, 1993, 2004 and 2016. Flooding due to shifting of the river channel and rise in the river bed due to siltation of sand and gravel are common in the watershed.

People have strong ability to live with the flood. This has been possible with the adaptive strategies such as raising plinth level of houses, making drains around the homested are some of the strategies adapted at household level. Besides, development of physical infrastructures, such as flood control embankments, and establishment of flood warning systems at community level, mainly in Sarpallo, has helped building confidence of the people to live in the flood plain. The support of the government and non-governmental organizations are often limited to relief and rescue of the people during flood emergencies. Hence, programmes well integrated with physical infrastructure and flood preparedness activities, like one in Sarpallo are therefore needed in other flood affected area of Ratu watershed.

ii Declaration

I hereby declare that this study entitled " Climate Change Impact on Ratu River Flooding and its Effects on Communities’ Life, Livelihood and People Led Adaptation situated in Mahottari and Dhanusha District” is based on my original research work. Related works on the topic, by other researchers, have been duly acknowledged. I owe all the liabilities relating to accuracy and authenticity of the data or any other information included hereunder.

Signature: Name of Student: Dinesh Kumar Shah Date:

iii Recommendation

This is to certify that this thesis entitled " Climate Change Impact on Ratu River Flooding and its Effects on Communities’ Life, Livelihood and People Led Adaptation situated in Mahottari and Dhanusha District " prepared and submitted by Dinesh Kumar Shah, in partial fulfillment of the requirements of the degree of Master of Science (M.Sc.) in Interdisciplinary Water Resources Management awarded by Pokhara University, has been completed under my supervision. I recommend the same for acceptance by Pokhara University.

Signature: Name of the Supervisor: Prof. Dr. Khem Raj Sharma

Organization: Nepal Engineering College, (Affiliated to Pokhara University), Lalitpur, Nepal Designation: Director, nec CPS Date:

iv Certificate

This thesis entitled " Climate Change Impact on Ratu River Flooding and its Effects on Communities’ Life, Livelihood and People Led Adaptation situated in Mahottari and Dhanusha District " prepared and submitted by Dinesh Kumar Shah has been examined by us and is accepted for the award of the degree of Master of Sciences (M.Sc.) in Interdisciplinary Water Resources Management by Pokhara University.

………………………. ………………………. ………………………. External Examiner Signature Date

Prof. Dr. Khem Raj Sharma ………………………. ……………………….

Thesis Supervisor & Signature Date Director, Nepal Engineering College- Center for Postgraduate Studies

v Acknowledgement

I would like to express my sincere gratitude to Prof. Dr. Khem Raj Sharma; my supervisor from nec, for his immense support and advice provided in the course of this study and also for support provided by him throughout my studies at Nepal Engineering college. I would like to acknowledge him with my deep respect.

I am very thankful to Mr. Robert Dongol, iWRM coordinator, nec for his continued support provided since conceptualization of research till finalization of report. I would also like to thank administrative staff for their support in facilitating logistic support.

I am very thankful to Jalsrot Vikas Sanstha /Global Water Partnership Nepal (JVS/GWP Nepal) for their technical guidance and partial financial support provided for the research. I am thankful to Mr. Mahendra Karki, Mr. Suresh Koirala, Mr. Rajkumar Mahato and Mr. Binod Mahato who extensively facilitated my work during field visit. My special thanks go to my friend Mr. Raman Maharjan for his support in finalizing land use map.

I am very thankful to DWIDM official, DSCO official and ward official of Bardibas Municipality, Mithila Municipality and Siswa-Manra Municipality for their support during field work. My special thank go to Er. Balaram Bhandary, People’s Embankment Program/DWIDM for providing study report related with Ratu River.

In conclusion I solely dedicate this thesis to my beloved parents, my wife Mrs. Anupama Purbey, my daughter Miss. Aditi Shah and son Mr. Darsith Shah for their support and encouragement for completing my post graduation course.

Dinesh Kumar Shah

vi Table of Content

Contents Page

ABSTRACT...... ii

Declaration ...... iii

Recommendation ...... iv

Certificate...... v

Acknowledgement ...... vi

Table of Content ...... viii

List of Tables ...... x

List of Figures ...... xi

Abbreviations and Acronyms ...... xii

Chapter 1 ...... 1

Introduction ...... 1

1.1 Background ...... 1

1.2 Statement of Problem ...... 2

1.3 Research Question ...... 2

1.4 Research Objective ...... 2

1.5 Significance of Study ...... 3

1.6 Scope and Limitation ...... 3

Chapter 2 ...... 4

Literature Review ...... 4

2.1 Climate Change ...... 4

2.2 Impact of Climate Change on river flood risk at global scale ...... 4

2.3 Changes in Climate Induced Disaster in Nepal ...... 5

2.4 Impacts of Climate Induced Disaster in Nepal ...... 5

2.5 Land use/Land Cover Change ...... 6

2.5.1 Land Use Change and Climate...... 7

2.5.2 Effects of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Water Resource ...... 7

2.5.3 Land Use Land Cover Change and Watershed Management ...... 7

2.6 Climate Change Adaptation ...... 8

2.7 Impacts/Threat of Climate Change in Ratu River Basin ...... 8

Chapter 3 ...... 10

Methodology ...... 10

3.1 Conceptual Framework ...... 10

3.2 Research Design and Approach ...... 10

3.3.1 Location of study area ...... 12

viii 3.3.2 Demarcation of the Study Area and Selection of Case wards ...... 12 3.3.3 River Morphology...... 13 3.3.4 Geology and Soil ...... 13 3.3.5 Climate and Hydrology ...... 14 3.3.6 Population in the Watershed ...... 14 3.4 Primary Data Collection ...... 15 3.4.1. Rapport Building...... 15 3.4.2 General Field Observation “Transect Walk” ...... 15 3.4.3 Key Informants Interview ...... 16 3.5 Review and Analysis of Secondary Data ...... 16 3.5.1. Meteorological Data ...... 17 3.5.2 Land Use Land Cover Change ...... 18 Chapter 4 ...... 22 Result and Discussion ...... 22 4.1 Climatology of Study Area ...... 22 4.2 Analysis of Land Use/Land Cover Change from Google Earth Image ...... 24 4.3 Perceived Impacts of Climate Change on Flooding ...... 27 4.3.1 Perceived Change in Frequency of Flood Hazard ...... 27 4.3.2 Perceived Cause of Damaging Flood Events ...... 29 4.3.3 Damages to Livelihood Resources Caused Due to Flooding ...... 30 4.3.4 Preparedness to Flooding ...... 32 4.3.5 External Support for Relief, Rescue and Livelihood Recovery ...... 33 4.4 Adaptation to Flooding ...... 34 4.4.1 Adaptation at Household Level ...... 34 4.4.2 Adaptation at Community Level ...... 37 4.5 External Agency/Government Supported Planned Adaptation ...... 37 Chapter 5 ...... 39 Conclusion and Recommendations ...... 39 5.1 Conclusion ...... 39 5.2 Recommendation ...... 40 References...... 42 Annex 1: Checklist for Key Informant Interview ...... 44 Annex 2: Checklist for Focus Group Discussion:...... 46 Annex 3: Time Series Rainfall Data ...... 55 Annex 4: Time Series Temperature Data of Jaleshwar Station ...... 59 Annex 5: Peak Flood Calculation ...... 61

ix List of Tables

Title Page

Table 2.1: Human Deaths from Major Disasters Since 2000 to 2017 ...... 6 Table 3.1 Population of Affected area ...... 14 Table 3.2: Demographic Change of Study area: ...... 15 Table 3.3 Summary of monthly Minimum and Maximum Temperature, Jaleshwar (1987 to 2016) ...... 17 Table 3.4: Summary of Rainfall Data, Tulis (1987 to 2016) ...... 18 Table 3.5 Area Wise Fores Loss and Gain ...... 20 Table 4.1 Comparison of Peak Discharge with Various Method for Ungauged Catchment ...... 23 Table 4.2 Flood Discharge Estimated by Narayani Method: ...... 23 Table 4.3 Land Use Change in Study Area ...... 25 Table 4.4 Perceived Frequency of Devastating Flood in Study area ...... 28 Table 4.5 Perceived Cause of Damaging Flood Events in the Study Area ...... 29 Table 4.6 Damages to Livelihood Resources Caused Due to Flooding in Study Area ...... 30 Table 4.7 Responses on Preparedness to Flooding in the Study Area ...... 32

x List of Figures

Title Page

Figure 3.1 Conceptual Framework ...... 10 Figure 3.2: Research Framework ...... 11 Figure 3.3: Map of Ratu River Basin ...... 12 Figure 3.4: Land Use Map of Ratu Watershed, 1996 (Source: ICIMOD, 2007) ...... 19 Figure 3.5: Forest Loss (2000-2012), (Source: DFO, Mahottari) ...... 20 Figure 3.6: Closer View of Ratu River Watershed of Different Time period (Source: Google Earth Image 1984 to 2016) ...... 21 Figure 4.1: Absolute and Average Maximum and Minimum Yearly Temperture at Jaleshwar (1989-2016) ...... 22 Figure 4.2: Comparison of Peak Discharge of Narayani Method with 2 years Returns Period of WECS/DHM method ...... 24 Figure 4.3: Land Use Map of Ratu Watershed, 2016 ...... 26 Figure 4.4: Sediment Deposition in Khau Ropne Jhori of Ratu River (October, 2017) .... 27 Figure 4.5: Flowchart of Adaptation Measures in the Study Area ...... 36

xi Abbreviations and Acronyms

ADPC Asian Disater Prevention Center APF Armed Police Force BCM Billion Cubic Meter CBS Central Bureau of Statistics CDO Chief District Officer

CFGORRP Community Based Flood andGlacial Lake Outburst Risk Reduction Project CPS Center for Postgraduate Studies CNDRC Central Natural Disaster Relief Committee DADO District Agriculture Development Office DDC District Development Committee DDPRP District Disaster Preparedness and Relief Plan DDRC District Disaster Relief Committee DHM Department of Hydrology and Meteorology DNDRC District Natural Disaster Relief Committee DoI Department of Irrigation DoS Department of Survey DSCO District Soil Conservation Office DWIDP Department of Water Induced Disasters Prevention DWIDM Department of Water Induced Disaster Management GEF Global Environment Fund FGD Focus Group Discussion FMP Flood Mitigation Plan GDP Gross Domestic Product GIS Geographic Information System GLOF Glacial Lake Outburst Flood GoN Government of Nepal GPS Geographic Positioning System GWP Global Water Partnership Ha Hectare HHs House Holds ICIMOD International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development INGO International Non-Government Organization JVS Jalsrot Bikas Sanstha KIIs Key Informants’ Interview Km Kilometer LDOF Landslide Dam Outburst Flood

xii MI Mean Importance

MoHA Ministry of Home Affairs MT Million Tonn PU Pokhara University NP Nepal Police NA Nepal Army NGO National Government Organization NRCS Nepal Red Cross Society PAF Poverty Alleviation Fund UN United Nation UNDP United Nations Development Programme

xiii Chapter 1

Introduction

1.1 Background

Impacts of climate change are becoming highly visible across the globe. Climate change is redefining earth’s natural landscape by altering air and water temperature, runoff of water, biodiversity, changes in precipitation (Dykema et al.,). Climate change is one of the biggest crises facing by humanity globally. Over the past two decades, the global average temperature rose by 0.4 ̊C (IPCC, 2014). This rise in temperature can be attributed to the rise in greenhouse gas (GHG) levels in the earth’s atmosphere mainly due to use of fossil fuels and to continuing deforestation, as set out by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in their report of 2014. Earth surface temperature is increasing rapidly which consequently has impacted precipitation pattern and, as a consequence has implication to different sectors and livelihood of communities (Dykema et al.,).

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has predicted 3.7 to 4.8 °C of st warming this 21 century if the business as usual continues (IPCC, 2014). The continuous increase in greenhouse gas emission due to anthropogenic pressure would further amplify the rate of increase in temperature and intensify the frequency of extreme weather events including floods, droughts, changing rainfall pattern, water resources depletion, and severe heat/cold waves (Arnell & Gosling, 2016). It has rendered the global communities specially the poorest households more vulnerable to climate change (CBS, 2017 b).

Climate change has impacted on natural and human systems on all continents and across the oceans in recent decades. According to IPCC, in many regions, changing precipitation or melting snow and ice are altering hydrological systems, affecting water resources in terms of quantity and quality. Many terrestrial, freshwater, and marine species have shifted their geographic ranges, seasonal activities, migration patterns, abundances, and species interactions in response to ongoing climate change (IPCC, 2014). Based on many studies conducted across wide range of regions, it has shown negative impacts of climate change on crop yields and has been more common than positive impacts (Bowyer et al., 2014).

Over three decades (1976–2005), 943 natural disasters were reported in South Asia, of which one-third were caused by floods, primarily in the Indus, Ganges, and Brahmaputra basins (Shrestha, et al., 2014). Nepal has a dense network of rivers and streams which differ in size, morphology and pattern of flow. The rivers originating from Nepal’s Himalayas flow in the north-south direction and confluence with the Ganges which is the trunk stream draining northern India and Nepal. The southern rivers originating from the Siwalik range have little water in the dry season but they cause flash floods during monsoon, causing damages to large tract of agricultural land in plain areas of Terai (Jha, 2015). Siwalik also called Chure is made up of the fluvial sedimentary rocks which is not fully adjusted and all the rivers and rivulates from Mahabharat range flow from this area to the Terai, which is naturally very sensitive area.

1 1.2 Statement of Problem

Chure originated rivers are ephemeral in nature. They have immense discharges which carry huge sediments during monsoon. Deforestation, free grazing and livestock pressures and improper agricultural practices in Chure region increased the soil exposure which, in turn, increases the susceptibility of erosion above the inherent weak geology (DHM, 2014). In flat land (Bhabar/ Terai), with reduced water energy, sediment deposition starts on the river ways/ banks (first the heavy particles then slowly other small ones) towards the river line. Deposition of sediments in flat lands itself blocks the waterways which results frequent meandering of the river and flooding of agricultural lands in the downstream. These phenomenon resulting flash floods, river meandering, soil erosion are the major threats to the people and livelihood in the Chure and Terai region. The increasing trend in rise of temperature, short duration intense precipitation due to the effect of climate change with combined effect of faulty land use practice of people, consequences of flood on life and material of people will increase in coming days (Shrestha et al., 2014).

Unstable geological condition, steep topography, combined with extreme weather conditions, makes the Chure region prone to many different natural hazards. Between 1983 and 2004, landslide and floods alone have been responsible for loss of 315 people annually while the loss/damages caused to physical infrastructure and livelihood of the people have been worth more than NRs. 14 trillion (DWIDP, 2004).

Ratu River is the medium river systems originated from Chure range and is situated in southern region of Nepal. Major portion of catchment of Ratu River is situated in Mahottari district while remaining portion lies in Dhanusha and Sindhuli District. Eleven urban municipalities and five rural municipalities of these districts lie within the watershed of Ratu river systems. Landslides, sedimentation, bank cutting, channel shifting, flash flood and inundation of agriculture land are consequences resulting from annual flooding in Ratu watershed.

1.3 Research Question

The study was carried out with the aim of developing basic understanding about climate change and its impacts on Chure originated Ratu River and how are people adapting to these changes. This study intended to focus on the following questions:

1. What are the dynamics of Ratu River flooding? 2. What are the consequences of flooding on life and property of communities? 3. What are the impacts of changing land use/land cover on flooding and livelihood of people in the study area? 4. What are the adaptation measures taken by the local communities?

1.4 Research Objective

The overall objective of the study was to find climate change impacts on Ratu river flooding and adaptation measures taken by people. The specific objectives of study are:

i.) To analyze dynamics of flooding in Ratu River.

2 ii.) To document and analyze consequences of flooding on life and livelihood resources of the people. iii.) To document impacts of land use/land cover change on flooding and livelihood resources. iv.) To document the adaptive measures taken by the people living in the study area.

1.5 Significance of Study

Flood damage in the Ratu River is more frequent in the monsoon season. The area in the flood plain of the river is badly affected by recurrent inundation and stream-bank erosion during flood events. The study was expected to produce value at three levels: i) In developing the understanding on the changes in the dynamics of flooding and flood damages in the study area, ii) In analyzing the damages caused to the livelihood resources of the people in the study area as a result of recurrent flood events, and iii) In documenting the adaptive practices of the people living in the flood plain and in analyzing the value of these practices in sustaining the livelihoods of those people. These three levels of output are essential elements in any development planning relating to flood mitigation and/or flood risk management. These findings of the study are therefore expected to create opportunity for promotion of adaptive practices through replication and up-scaling of the practices at two levels:

i) At the community level within the study area in consolidating the community based responses to build adaptive strategies to recurrent flood events, and ii.) Replication and up-scaling of the adaptive practices to other areas of similar nature by building on the adaptive practices and their value in sustaining the livelihood resources.

1.6 Scope and Limitation

Ratu River Basin is divided into two physiographical unit, Siwalik (Chure) and Terai in south and extended upto Indo-Nepal border. The watershed area covers 532 sq. km, and shares part of Sindhuli District in the north and Mahottari and Dhanusa Districts in the south. Its elevation ranges from 61m near the Indo-Nepal border in the south to 740m in the north. The basin’s maximum north-south and east-west aerial distances are 58.46 and 13.14 km, respectively (DHM, 2014). Eleven urban municipalities and five rural municipalities, the smallest administrative units of the country, lie within this watershed. Hence, current study was unable to cover whole geographical unit of watershed. The survey was based on the purposive sampling. Hence, it didn’t possess the power of generalization of the results to whole; however, it will show the various impacts of climate change, particularly consequence of flood within the watershed of the study area.

3 Chapter 2

Literature Review

2.1 Climate Change

Climate change scenarios project warmer temperatures and changed precipitation with negative impacts on water supply (Santos et al., 2016). The Fourth Assessment Report of Working Group II of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) critically assessed thousands of recent publications on different aspects of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerabilities. Paper, prepared by lead authors of the freshwater chapter in the recent IPCC Report summarizes the key findings concerning projections of climate change impacts on freshwater resources and their management, adaptation and vulnerabilities (Kundzewicz et al., 2008). Changes in the pattern of water flows and groundwater recharge over space and time are determined by changes in temperature, evaporation and, crucially, precipitation. Some climate change impacts on hydrological processes have been observed already, and further changes are projected. They vary between regions and seasons (Kundzewicz et al., 2008).

Floods are one of the most devastating disasters, especially in Asia (Whitehead et al., 2012). Poor people in society are the most vulnerable, as they live in the most threatened locations and struggle to cope with the impacts due to income, political, and social constraints (Bowyer et al., 2014). This can be compounded by the observation that developing countries are particularly threatened by flooding because of their limited capacity to prevent and absorb disaster impacts (Bowyer et al., 2014). Moreover, the future threat from flooding is likely to increase due to the effects of climate change, changing flood patterns and rapid land use/land cover change placing more people in harm’s way (Bubeck, 2018).

2.2 Impact of Climate Change on river flood risk at global scale

River flood hazard is one of the most immediate visible impacts of climate change. Only few assessments of changing river flood hazard have been done which mainly have focused on frequency of occurrence of specific frequency events (Arnell and Gosling, 2016). Key conclusion of such studies is that the projected effects of climate change on the flood hazard may be very substantial, but very dependent on climate change scenario (Arnell and Gosling, 2016). Floods impact societies in various ways, ranging from the loss of life, injuries and mental health effects, to the destruction of assets (Bubeck, 2018). However, despite the growing numbers of people affected by flooding, there is little acknowledgement of the whole range of impacts that can occur (Bubeck, 2018).

The potential impacts of climate change and socio-economic change on flow and water quality in rivers worldwide is key area of interest (Whitehead et al., 2012). Most of the rivers in the world, either small of large, are of vital concern as it provides fresh water for people, agriculture, industry, and for ecosystem functioning (Whitehead et al., 2012). Climate change combined with socio-economic consideration is a key strategic concern of the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), fifth assessment report (IPCC, 2014). The IPCC reports highlights the likely impacts of climate change and proposes strategy for assessing future Shared Socio-economic Pathways and how these

4 might interact with climate change to generate a combined effects on catchment, people and livelihood.

Damage caused by flood hazard is increasing throughout the globe due to climate change. As a part of adaptation strategies concept of vulnerability to climate change is introduced abroad to identify flood hotspot and to establish improvement measures (Kim et al., 2012).

2.3 Changes in Climate Induced Disaster in Nepal

Government of Nepal conducted National Climate Change Impacts Survey (NCCIS) under Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) in 2016, reveals following facts. 49.33 % households have heard about climate change. Majority of surveyed households perceived an increase in drought, landslide, avalanche, and Disease/insect whereby majority (64.05%) in temperate zone observed an increase in fire in settlement in the last 25 years. The survey result shows that 74.29 per cent of total households have observed changes in water sources whereby 84.47 per cent observed decrease in amount of surface water. On the other hand, 79.64 per cent households in urban area and 68.12 per cent in rural area reported decrease in water quality. Likewise, majority of households (74.56%) in mountain region have reported complete drying up of surface water and high percentage (48.81%) in hill area observed complete drying up of the underground water sources (CBS, 2016c). Such changes in water sources have been reported due to insufficient rainfall. Majority of households from all climatic zones perceived that trees, shrubs, medicinal herbs, non-timber products, aquatic animals, aquatic plants, wild animals, and birds are decreasing whereas grass and insects are increasing (CBS, 2016c).

Nepal is facing the rage of natural and human induced disasters with greater frequency and intensity (MoHA, 2018b). The earthquake of 1934, 1980, 1988, 2015 and the flood of July, 1993, 2008, 1913, 2014 and 2017 are the most devastating disasters which not only caused heavy losses to human lives and physical properties but also adversely affected the development process of the country as a whole (MoHA, 2018a). Analysis of disaster data of Nepal, revealed that the human life loss and property losses are in increasing trend. This is basically due to the low level of preparedness. Table 2.1 below shows human casualties from floods, landslides, thunderbolts, fires, hail-stones, wind-storms, avalanches, snow- storms, epidemics and earthquakes in 18 years (2000 to 2017) time period.

2.4 Impacts of Climate Induced Disaster in Nepal

More than 80 percent of the total population of Nepal is at risk from natural hazards, such as floods, landslides, windstorms, hailstorms, fires, earthquakes and Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (CBS, 2016c). Nepal is also in a seismically active zone with a high probability for massive earthquakes. All these factors place Nepal among the 20 most disaster prone countries in the world (MoHA, 2018b). Incidences of disasters are growing every year in Nepal. The available information system on disaster captures the human impacts of disaster, economic losses and environmental damages and show that disasters account about two percent loss of national GDP annually (MoHA, 2018b).

Climate change impact has been experienced in different sectors in Nepal including agriculture, forests and biodiversity, water resources and energy. While several policies have been devised at the central level, effective implementation of such policies and plans at local and community level is a challenge due to limitations including lack of availability

5 of integrated and reliable data and information on different aspects of climate change impacts (CBS, 2016c).

Table 2.1: Human Deaths from Major Disasters Since 2000 to 2017

Avala nches /snow storm Flood andla ndsli de

WindStor m HailStorm Thunderb olt Epidemi cs Year Total Fire

2000 173 26 37 1 2 - 141 380 2001 196 38 26 1 1 - 154 147 2002 441 6 11 0 3 - 0 461 2003 232 62 16 0 20 - 0 330 2004 131 10 10 0 0 - 0 151 2005 141 18 28 0 0 21 41 249 2006 141 15 3 1 0 - 34 194 2007 216 40 9 18 1 6 0 290 2008 134 16 11 0 2 0 3 166 2009 135 7 35 0 0 2 10 189 2010 240 70 69 0 2 2 462 845 2011 263 95 46 2 6 0 36 448 2012 123 119 77 0 18 9 9 361 2013 219 146 59 0 3 7 4 438 2014 241 96 62 0 3 38 12 452 2015 293 115 53 0 2 2 18 483 2016 297 105 85 0 4 0 14 505 2017 236 85 63 0 5 1 10 400 Total 3852 1069 700 23 72 88 948 16125 Source: MoHA, 2018

2.5 Land use/Land Cover Change

Land use and cover change (LUCC) is the study of land surface change. Land use (such as agriculture, pasture, or plantation) describes human use of land, while land cover (such as forest or desert) describes the biophysical characteristics of the land surface. Land use change may affect land cover, while changing land cover may similarly affect land use (Zvoleff et al., 2017). There are two types of land use change: direct anthropogenic (human-caused) changes and indirect changes. Examples of anthropogenic changes include deforestation, reforestation and afforestation, agriculture, and urbanization. Indirect changes include those changes in climate or in carbon dioxide concentrations that force changes in vegetation.

2 2 An estimated 4.7 million km of grassland areas and 6 million km of forest/woodland have been converted to cropland worldwide since 1850 and the main purpose for land cover change is to obtain food and other essentials (Adhikari, 2016). Land-cover modifications-changes in the structure of an extant cover of a short duration (such as forest succession under slash-and burn cultivation) are also widespread. The pace and intensity of land cover change increased rapidly over the last three centuries and accelerated over the last three decades (ibid).

6 2.5.1 Land Use Change and Climate

Land use and land cover changes can significantly contribute to overall climate change (ELC, 2015). Vegetation and soils typically act as a carbon sink, storing carbon dioxide that is absorbed through photosynthesis. When the land is disturbed, the stored carbon dioxide—along with methane and nitrous oxide—is emitted, re-entering the atmosphere. Carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide are greenhouse gases, which contribute to global warming. The clearing of land can result in soil degradation, erosion, and the leaching of nutrients; which can also possibly reduce its ability to act as a carbon sink. This reduction in the ability to store carbon can result in additional carbon dioxide remaining in the atmosphere, thereby increasing the total amount of greenhouse gases (ibid).

2.5.2 Effects of Land Use/Land Cover Change on Water Resource

Land use changes are altering the hydrologic system and have potentially large impacts on water resources. Rapid socio-economic development drives land use change. Land use changes have potentially large impacts on water resources (Wagner et al., 2013). Rapid socio-economic development drives land use changes, which include changes of land use classes, e.g., conversion of cropland to urban area due to urbanization, as well as changes within classes such as a change of crops or crop rotations. Particularly in regions where water availability is limited, land use changes could result in an increase of water scarcity and thus contribute to a deterioration of living conditions. Increase of agricultural area leads to an exacerbation of the imbalance of water availability and demand in dry season due to increased consumption of irrigation water, whereas urbanization results in more runoff during rainy season due to the increase of paved surface area. Thus in monsoon regions, urbanization and increase in agricultural areas aggravate the imbalance between seasonal water availability and water demand (ibid).

The influence of land cover change on storm runoff generation is very complicated as land use and soil cover have an effect on interception, surface retention, evapo-transpiration, and resistance to overland flow. For instance, cropland and urban land yield more flood volumes, higher peak discharges and shorter flow travel times than grassland or woodland (Adhikari, 2016). Also, land-use and land-cover changes are one of the main human induced activities altering the groundwater system (Adhikari, 2016).

2.5.3 Land Use Land Cover Change and Watershed Management

Many of our forests, wetlands, grasslands, and other areas have been replaced with houses, farms, pastures, factories, stores, businesses, roads, and streets. These changes in the way we use our land have altered the hydrology of watersheds. A watershed is a region of land that drains into a body of water, typically a river or lake. Water not only moves across the surface of land in a watershed (runoff), but it also filters down through the soil and rock to form groundwater. Groundwater is the water beneath the surface of the ground that has seeped down from the surface and is the source of water for wells and springs. Runoff is water that does not seep into the ground, but instead flows over the surface of the land. Changes in land use affect our watersheds.

Watershed management is a term used to describe the process of implementing land use practices and water management practices to protect and improve the quality of the water

7 and other natural resources within a watershed by managing the use of those land and water resources in a comprehensive manner. Over-exploitation and degradation of the land and land based resources lead to the degradation of the watershed condition and thus to the agro-ecosystem and food security (Wagner et al., 2013). Therefore, there is need of the watershed management. Watershed Management is the process of guiding and organizing the use of land & other resource in a watershed to provide desired goods and services without adversely affecting the environment or ecological balance (Adhikari, 2016). It involves multiple resource types and requires understanding of the relationships among land cover, soil and water (Adhikari, 2016). The concept of watershed management has internationally gained significance following the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development in 1992 in Rio de Janeiro (also known as the Earth Summit). Watershed management as a measure of development implies that the resources within a defined watershed should be utilized for the benefit of the local population and in harmony with the environment (Brigitta & Forch, 2019).

2.6 Climate Change Adaptation

Climate change adaptation is a response to global warming (also known as "climate change" or "anthropogenic climate change"), that seeks to reduce the vulnerability of social and biological systems to relatively sudden change and thus offset the effects of global warming. Even if emissions are stabilized relatively soon, global warming and its effects should last many years, and adaptation would be necessary to the resulting changes in climate (Bubeck, 2018). Adaptation is especially important in developing countries since those countries are predicted to bear the brunt of the effects of global warming (Bowyer et al., 2014).

Adaptation to the risks posed by climate change and variability is a complex process, and one that is still relatively new to many organizations. To date, progress on adaptation in both the private and public sector has at best been patchy (Bowyer et al., 2014). A risk management framework is highly attractive for dealing with adaptation, and the consequences from climate risks. The potential for effective climate risk management, and thus adaptation, is increased by considering all the relevant climate and non-climate factors that relate to a particular adaptation problem, and by integrating climate risks into corporate risk management strategies (ibid).

Climate change is expected to significantly impact on extreme precipitation events frequency and magnitude and on temperature (Arnell & Gosling, 2016). On the other hand, human modifications of the basin areas, jointly with land use change and anthropological pressure on the rivers, are consistently impacting on the retention and drainage capacity of the catchment areas (Brigitta & Forch, 2019). This could be translated in a substantial increase of surface runoff and, consequently, river peak discharge. To ensure that appropriate flood defense systems are designed, an adjustment of the hazard maps to link the portability with a correct discharge is needed (ECAP, 2015).

2.7 Impacts/Threat of Climate Change in Ratu River Basin

Climate change along with the human behavior in the watershed has remarkably changed the scenario of the watershed regarding the flora-fauna and availability of natural resources within. Changing rainfall patterns, shift in onset of monsoon, frequent short but heavy rainfall and increasing drought period has been noticed by almost of the residents

8 within the Ratu Watershed area (ICIMOD, 2007). In 1966, 1977 and 1995 there were flooding events. 15-20 years back there were dense forest with infinite Khair (Senegalia catechu), Karma and Sisso (Dalbergia sissoo) species which are now no more in the watershed area. Among fauna, Ghoral, wild boar, Jangali chicken, and other wild animals were common which are now listed as endangered species in Chure. More importantly there were dense bamboos of different species which are now very rare on the watershed area. Early fruit species like Cheuri (Fruit) and wild mangoes are now named rare species (DHM, 2014).

9 Chapter 3

Methodology

3.1 Conceptual Framework

This study mainly focuses on the trend of climate in the study area and its implication, basically flood, on people residing along the river basin, so it become important to understand nexus among climate, land use land cover change, adaptation and people’s perception of flood hazard. Among other, change in land cover is arguably most significant driver of environmental change, as it leads to many main area of concern: loss of biodiversity, greenhouse gas emission, soil degradation and alteration of hydrological cycles. Adaptation and perception of people help reduce impacts of flood hazard on people’s life and livelihood. The overall conceptual framework of research is presented in figure 3.1.

Planned Adaptation Land Use Land Cover (Government) Change (Deforestation, increase in buildup area, encroachment to floodplain etc) Adaptation Autonomous (Local People)

Reduction Impacts Life and Flood Hazard Livelihood of Local

Climate Change (Rise of temperature, Local People Perception change in precipitation pattern etc.) Figure 3.1 Conceptual Framework 3.2 Research Design and Approach

The study involved case study approach, involving series of consultation with key stakeholders and people in the study area in formulating the problem, in framing the research questions and in setting out the research objectives. This helped in the delineation of the study area and in the selection of the case ward for the study. Visits and consultation with the agencies and their personnel dealing with management of watershed, flood and flood disasters and the key informants and people from the study area helped developing understanding on the dynamics of flooding, flood damages and the resulting livelihood consequences. These were also substantiated by review and analysis of secondary data. This understanding was then used in selecting the study rural/urban municipality to

10 develop micro-level understanding on the stresses on the livelihood system of the people and the adaptive strategies of the people across the selected four locations.

The research design includes both quantitative and qualitative method of research along with case study. The study was designed to involve four stages of works focused to collection, analysis and synthesis of information to help build understanding on the dynamics of flooding including land use land cover change and flood damages and adaptive practices of the people- i.) review and synthesis of secondary sources of data to develop macro perspective on the recurrent flooding and flood damages in the area, ii.)study of the four case wards to understand the physical, social and economic context and their linkages to dynamics of flood damages faced by the people across the four wards, iii.) develop understanding on the adaptive practices and relative importance accrued by the people to the spectrum of adaptive practices across the case wards, and iv.)cross-case analysis leading to the damages produced to the livelihood resources in the past flood events to the physical and socio-economic context of the case wards, evaluating the value of the adaptive practices to the local context and the gaps thereto for resilient living in the flood plain.

The study therefore typically included an embedded case study with the four case wards representing four different physical and socio-economic contexts while located in the same macro environment with the history of flood damages and livelihood recovery in the past. The overall research framework of study is shown in figure 3.2. The frame work comprises overall research design, literature review, field study, and data analysis.

Research Framework

Step 1 Step 2 Step 3 Step 4 Research Literature Review Key Informants Data Analysis Design interview & Field Study

General approach • Rapport Quantitative and /Case Studies • Background Building Qualitative data information • Focus Group analysis Discussion (Statistical • Previous studies • General analysis: MS Field excel) Conceptual • Journal articles and Observation Framework other published • Key documents Informant Interview • Grey literature

Criteria for case study site

Secondary Data Primary Data

Figure 3.2: Research Framework Reporting

11 3.3 Study Area: Ratu River Watershed

3.3.1 Location of study area

Ratu Watershed is located in the southern part of Nepal between 26° 37’ 43” to 27° 8’ 3” N and 85° 46’ 13” to 85° 58’ 47” E. The area covers 532 sq. km, and shares part of the Sindhuli District in the north and the Mahottari and Dhanusa Districts in the south (Figure 3.3). Its elevation ranges from 61 m near the Indo-Nepal border in the south to 740 m in the north. The basin’s maximum north-south and east-west aerial distances are 58.46 and 13.14 km, respectively. Ratu river covers 10 urban municipality and 5 rural municipality of Mahottari district and one urban municipality of Dhanusa district. The smallest administrative units of the country lie within this watershed.

Figure 3.3: Map of Ratu River Basin

3.3.2 Demarcation of the Study Area and Selection of Case wards

The entry point in the formulation of the research problem and development of the study was selection of the reach of Ratu River with the history of recurrent flooding and flood

12 damages and also evidences of the planned intervention of the government in responding to the flood damages. The evidence of planned intervention in the control of flooding and flood damages was considered an essential element in the selection of the study reach because the adaptation of the people to the flooding is influenced and shaped strongly by planned intervention, involving infrastructures built for river training and flood control. This study focused on the reach of Ratu river watershed from the upstream i.e. Ratu bridge of BP highway at Mithila Munipality-11 (Tulsi), extending up to downstream to Manra siswa Municipality-6 & 7 (Sarpallo), involving a 45 km long reach of the river with the history of recurrent flooding and flood damages. Downstream of Ratu bridge of east-west highway, the meander pattern and shift in the river channel has been more frequent producing recurrent damages to livelihood resources. The area most affected by floods have been Tulsi, Gauribas, Pashupati Nagar, Kishan Nagar, Banchauri, Balwa, Sarpallo, Jaleshwar and Nainhi of Mahottari district and Tulsi, Lalgad of Dhanusha district. On Indian side, Government of India had built high elevation road just adjacent to Indo-Nepal boarder which cause back flow of water towards Nepal during monsoon and inundate Nainhi and Jaleshwar of Nepal.

Within the stated study reach, four case wards Tulsi, Lalgad of Mithila 10 and 11 Kalapani of Bardibas-6 and Sarpallo of Manra Siswa-6 & 7 were selected for detailed study of damages resulting to livelihood resources and adaptive practices of the people. The selection of the four case wards was selected in way so that it could represent whole catchment of Ratu River watershed. Beside it was also guided by: Long history of settlement with the incidences of shifting and relocation of the people and the processes of reconstruction and resettlement, providing evidences on simultaneous processes of degradation and rebuilding and therefore providing opportunity of developing evidences around adaptive practices of the people in maintaining the livelihoods. The case wards facing differential damages resulting from the flood incidences in the past and also differential adaptive capacity of the people to deal with the flooding and flood damages despite being located in the different physical and socio-cultural setting, hence providing opportunity to link adaptive capacity to contextual variables. The four case wards representative to the overall pattern of adaptation of the people in the flood plain within the area and also in other parts in the Chure and Terai region of the country.

3.3.3 River Morphology

The Ratu River originates from Maisthan in the north near the border of Sindhuli and Mahottari. The total length of the main channel is 82 km within the territory of Nepal. It flows through relatively wide valleys within the Siwaliks, alluvial plain and finally across the Nepal-India border. It is a seasonal river with considerable volume of sub surface water flow during dry season. Its major tributaries are the Jangha River, the Sunjhari River, and the Badahare River. The Ratu exceeds 800 m in width in the upper reaches, becoming less than 40 m near the border. The river deposited substantial sediment, resulting in aggradation, shifting, meandering, widening and braiding (DHM, 2014).

3.3.4 Geology and Soil

A distinct geological characteristic is found in the upper and lower reaches of the basin. The upper reach comprises the Siwalik Hills, while the lower reach is in the Terai, the northern extension of the Indo-Gangetic Plain. The upper reach has all the three subgroups of the Siwaliks, namely, the Lower Siwaliks, the Middle Siwaliks, and the Upper Siwaliks.

13

The Lower Siwaliks are composed of brown sandstone and clays. The Middle Siwaliks are characterized by thick beds of sandstone. The Upper Siwaliks form the major part of the watershed and are composed of conglomerates with pebbles and boulders. The topography of the Upper Siwaliks is highly dissected, coarsely textured, and subdued. To the south lies a depositional zone of very low relief and gentle slopes.

3.3.5 Climate and Hydrology

Since the elevation of the Ratu River Basin is less than 1,000 masl, the basin experiences a sub-tropical monsoon climate. Summer months (March-Sept.) are very hot with maximum temperatures exceeding 30°C, and winter months are mild with average monthly temperatures between 15 and 20°C. There are four distinct seasons of precipitation: dry pre-monsoon (March-May) characterized by thunderstorms; monsoon (June-Sept.) with heavy precipitation; post monsoon (October.); and dry winter (November.-December.).

3.3.6 Population in the Watershed

The population profile of Ratu affected area is presented in Table 3.1 and population profile of study area is presented separately in Table 3.2 to compare demographic change of study area. The change in population is stagnant at upstream of Ratu river while there is very high increase of population in Manra Siswa 6 & 7 (Sarpallo) because many household from vicinity has migrated due to facilities like all weather road access, electricity, flood risk management work etc. Reason for stagnant population at upstream is result of frequent incidence of flooding, inundation that caused large number of population to migrate out of the study area. The household in the study area belong to Rai, Magar, Brhamin, Chetri, Newar, Bishwakarma, Mahato, Teli, Sonar, Suri, Yadav and majority of them are small holders.

Table 3.1 Population of Affected area

S.N Urban/Rural Municipality House Population Cencus 2011 Hold Male Female Total 1 Mithila Municipality 10 &11 1726 4428 4495 8923 2 Aurahi Municipality 5822 15781 16070 31851 3 Balawa Municipality 7661 20632 21709 42341 4 Bardibas Municipality 13113 31349 32863 64212 5 Bhangaha Municipality 8560 21990 24767 46757 6 Gaushala Municipality 11893 33751 32926 66677 7 Jaleshwar Municipality 10034 28696 28853 57549 8 Loharpatti Municipality 7317 18949 20934 39883 9 Manra Siswa Municipality 8532 24856 24836 49652 10 Matihani Municipality 5226 15215 15811 31026 11 Ram Gopalpur Municipality 5257 14767 15645 30412 12 Sonam Rural Municipality 6341 19637 19110 38747 13 Ekdada Rural Municipality 4809 14831 14484 29315 14 Mahottari Rural Municipality 4861 13814 13616 27430 15 Pipara Rural Municipality 6490 17725 17799 35524 16 Samsi Rural Municipality 5382 16739 17052 33791 Source: CBS, 2017

14 Table 3.2: Demographic Change of Study area:

Population Attribute by Ward Population Census Remark 2001 2011 Tulsi (Mithila Municipality-11) Total HHs 668 1024 Total Population 3451 5301

Lalgad (Mithila Municipality-10) Total HHs 626 702 Total Population 3807 3662 Kalapani (Bardibas-6) Total HHs 810 970 Total Population 4308 5050 Sarpallo (Manra Siswa 6 & 7) Total HHs 1226 1787 Total Population 7159 9876 Source: CBS, 2017 and Population Census 2001

3.4 Primary Data Collection

Sample for primary data was based on purposive sampling and was selected randomly to represents whole study area. For primary data collection, the following tools were used: i) Walk through and observation of physical context and the scar of past flood damages in the study area, ii) Focus group discussion (FGDs) in the four case wards focused to understanding the chronology of the flood damages and the processes of recovery of livelihoods and the adaptive responses of the people to the past flood events, and iii) Key informants’ interviews to understand the support of external agencies and their value in livelihood recovery processes and building adaptive capacity of the people to live with the flood.

The approach to implementing each of these methodological tools in the collection of relevant data/information is provided in the following sections.

3.4.1. Rapport Building

Rapport was developed to create level of trust and understanding with community people, community based organization (CBO), local stakeholders, water sector organization, th district officials and related departments within the study area from 26 November, 2018.

3.4.2 General Field Observation “Transect Walk”

Physical observation of the study area was done by walk through along with the people from study area to observe the shift in the river course and the degradation and damages caused to the land resources in the study area in the past flood events. The walks through

15 of the area with the local people also help for understanding the processes of recovery of the damaged resources.

3.4.3 Key Informants Interview

Key informants interview was done to substantiate the information obtained . Seven KII was done to develop additional information with regards to the value of support services from the government and other agencies in flood damage recovery and building adaptive capacity of the people to recurrent flood disasters in the area. Information was collected at district and community levels through in-depth individual interviews with key informants, meetings, informal discussions, telephone conversations, and email communications. Both women and men, and official from People Embankment Progarm, Mahottari, DSCO, DFO and municipality official and communities, were interviewed. At the local level, separate key informant interviews was conducted with community members, representing both local leaders and ordinary men and women. Checklist for KII is presented in Annex-I.

3.4.4 Focus Group Discussion

Four Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) were carried out in four case wards of study area separately. A checklist was developed (Annex-II) to guide the FGD and record the information and/or perspectives of the participants. Use of checklist was also helpful in systematizing the discussion process of FGDs and helped obtaining triangulated information for reliability of the information.

FGD in each case wards was conducted involving participants from different age group (40 to 70 years old) and occupations. Specifically elderly people were encouraged to participate so that chronological record of the past flood events, damages caused to the life and livelihood resources and their efforts in the recovery of damaged livelihood resources can be recorded.

3.5 Review and Analysis of Secondary Data

Secondary data are important part of the study, not only for formulating and developing research but also to develop macro-perspective on the physical context of the study area. Data from DHM and information collected from the literature review of both published and unpublished literatures were used as the secondary information for the analysis and interpretation. Literature review was done throughout the research period for upgrading information on other’s experiences and various methodologies followed elsewhere.

Secondary data involved reviews of past studies on flood risk analysis and flood damage assessments carried out by different organization, mainly People Embankment Program, Mahottari, DSCO report and other agencies, including those carried out by independent researchers in similar nature river.

This study includes both field survey and map studies. In primary session, field work was conducted to acquire first hand data required for the research. Besides information on flood and flood damages and adaptation practices in the study area, land use/land cover maps of the study area were necessary which were obtained by using Google Earth computer application and map of various time period was used to show land use change of the study area.

16

Population and demographic changes in the study areas which was obtained from Municipality profile and census data of Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS) was used as secondary data. Information on community forest, agricultural pattern, and the number of beneficiary households in each wards were obtained from the respective wards office. Results of relevant studies carried out were used to the extent of needs in substantiating the study findings. All these are discussed in detail in following section.

3.5.1. Meteorological Data

Temperature of Jaleshwar station (station 1122) and rainfall data of Tulsi (station 1110) and Jaleshwar stations were collected from Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) and are analyzed using Microsoft excel to know dynamics of flooding in the Ratu watershed. For the analysis of climatic trend, temperature and rainfall data from year 1987 to 2016 were used.

The time series monthly rainfall and temperature data of these stations were obtained and are presented in the Annex III and Annex IV respectively. Summary of the temperature and rainfall data are shown in Table 3.3 and 3.4 respectively. Since temprature data of Tulsi is not recorded by DHM, hence only temperature data from Jaleshwar station is analyzed to know temperature trend of study area.

As there is no gauging station on Ratu river, there is no exact information about discharge. However discharge calculation is done with reference of “Design Manual For River Training Works In Nepal” prepared by Government of Nepal, Ministry of Water Recourses, Water and Energy Commission Secretariat from which the

i.) Modified Dicken’s method, ii.) WECS/DHM method, iii.) Rational Method and iv.) Narayani Method are used for estimating flood discharges.

Equations and procedure used in estimating flood discharge and calculation sheet are presented in Annex-5.

Table 3.3 Summary of monthly Minimum and Maximum Temperature, Jaleshwar (1987 to 2016)

Parameter Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Average max 20 24 30 33 31 30 29 29 28 27 23 21

Absolute max 24 29 34 38 38 37 35 36 35 36 31 28

Average min 9 11 17 20 22 23 23 23 23 20 13 10

Absolute min 8 9 14 18 22 24 23 24 25 18 12 10

Source: DHM, 1987 to 2016

17 Table 3.4: Summary of Rainfall Data, Tulis (1987 to 2016)

Jaleshwar Tulsi Year Mean Max 24 hr-Max Mean Max 24 hr-Max 1987 DNA 0 DNA 220 795 234 1988 DNA 0 DNA 175 523 182 1989 84 310 73 144 591 118 1990 89 344 86 143 552 124 1991 42 257 82 139 415 164 1992 82 207 130 99 353 69 1993 98 461 128 161 637 145 1994 67 297 86 110 377 114 1995 67 303 87 156 741 252 1996 105 438 70 148 752 127 1997 89 272 82 152 471 128 1998 123 589 151 169 920 146 1999 128 515 128 156 514 97 2000 83 369 154 115 471 125 2001 62 331 72 177 517 93 2002 102 617 154 164 925 92 2003 DNA DNA DNA 146 593 105 2004 DNA DNA DNA 192 1110 276 2005 93 714 184 122 683 153 2006 90 407 113 133 529 124 2007 183 733 170 162 629 131 2008 75 259 135 124 349 108 2009 38 233 49 80 308 107 2010 58 186 67 102 376 84 2011 80 458 106 137 524 168 2012 73 394 210 95 279 94 2013 30 148 50 117 285 78 2014 104 524 155 141 617 126 2015 48 257 98 DNA 0 DNA 2016 113 369 88 142 596 127 (DNA: Data Not Available)

3.5.2 Land Use Land Cover Change

Ratu watershed comprises all three subgroups of Siwalik in the upper reach and Terai in the lower reach, the northern extension of Indo Gangetic plain. Siwalik is made of unconsolidated river deposits and is prone to earthquakes and landslides and problem of soil erosion is also very high. With change in land use/land cover in this region combined with worst weather (rise in temperature and intensity of Rainfall) problem of landslide, soil erosion, river bank cutting due to high velocity flow during monsoon has magnified the risk of flood disaster in the study area.

18

For Land Use Land Cover change analysis, data obtained from the study report of ICMOD, 2007 on Ratu Watershed, District Forest Office Mahottari report and land use map of 2016 prepared with reference to satellite image are used.

Figure 3.4: Land Use Map of Ratu Watershed, 1996 (Source: ICIMOD, 2007)

According to study conducted by District Forest Office, Mahottari total forest loss in Mahottari district was found to be 627.43 ha during 2000-2012, while reforestation was only 11.54 ha. Encroachment was found to be done mainly for settlement and cultivation. Forest loss was found to be as high as 249 ha in 2010 AD whereas same area (4 ha) was the minimum loss of forest land in 2001 and 2002 AD. The highest amount of forest loss was in Laxminiya while Padaul, Ankar, Parsa Patali, Ratauli and Gaidha Bhetpur loss the least forest. Highest forest cover gain was in Laxminiya with 4.89 ha of forest cover increment. Forest loss information is presented in Figure 3.5 and area wise forest loss and gain is presented in Table 3.5.

19

249

103

64 59

40 29 31 26 12 4 4 7

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Figure 3.5: Forest Loss (2000-2012), (Source: DFO, Mahottari)

Table 3.5 Area Wise Fores Loss and Gain

Area Forest Gain Forest Loss Difference/Change Laksminiya 4.89 238.92 -234.03 Khairmara 1.67 9.0 -7.33 Belgachhi 1.07 107.76 -106.69 Gauribas 1.01 1.73 -0.72 Maisthan 0.76 5.20 -4.44 Phulakaha 0.38 0.18 0.2 Ramnagar 0.38 54.75 -54.37 Bharatpur 0.19 2.67 -2.48 Pipra 0.19 2.32 -2.13 Bardibas 0.13 0.83 -0.7 Sarpallo 0.13 0.32 -0.19 Mahottari 0.13 0.55 -0.42 Sisawakataiya 0.13 0.12 0.01 Banauli Donauli 0.06 0.23 -0.17 Kolhuwa Bagaiya 0.06 - 0.06 Ekarhiya 0.06 0.52 -0.46 Bangaha 0.06 10.61 -10.55 Ekdara 0.06 0.29 -0.23 Bhramarpura 0.06 0.46 -0.4 Halkhori 0.06 - 0.06 Jaleshwar 0.06 0.99 -0.93 Remaining Area 0 189.98 -189.98 Total 11.45 627.43 -615.98

20

Similarly change in morphology of Ratu river is analyzed from the closer view of statelite image of Ratu river of the year 1984, 2004 and 2016 and is shown in Figure 3.6. Considerble change in morphology of river can be observed during 1984 to 2016.

1984 2004

2019

Figure 3.6: Closer View of Ratu River Watershed of Different Time period (Source: Google Earth Image 1984 to 2016)

21 Chapter 4

Result and Discussion

4.1 Climatology of Study Area

The basin has a tropical to subtropical climate dominated by monsoon winds. There is a climatological station at Jaleshwor, the district headquarters of Mahottari and Tulsi- Mithila municipality-11 of Dhanusha district.

Figure 4.1 shows that average maximum temperature in the study area is 33°C whereas average minimum temperature is 16°C and occurs in 2001 and its consecutive average maximum temperature is 29°C which indicate that year 2001 was the coolest weather of the study area. Analysis of temperature does not show any considerable change in trend of maximum of temperature in past 29 years, but there is increasing trend in average minimum temperature and shows that winter is getting hotter than past. Also people revealed increase in hot days both in winter and summer in recent years and frequency of heat wave has increased causing health impacts on people’s life.

45 Absolute Max.

40 y = -0.0208x + 36.22

R² = 0.0266 Avg. Max.

35

30 Absolute Min. y = -0.0117x + 30.98 25 R² = 0.0186 Min. Avg. 20 y = 0.0275x + 20.042 Linear (Absolute 15 R² = 0.096 Max. ) 10 Linear (Avg. 5 y = -0.016x + 9.8746 Max.) R² = 0.0195 Linear (Absolute 0 Min.) 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Linear (Min. Year Avg. )

Figure 4.1: Absolute and Average Maximum and Minimum Yearly Temperture at Jaleshwar (1989-2016)

Table 3.3 shows that average maximum monthly temperature range between 31°C to 33°C in the month of April/May, whereas the minimum average monthly temperature was in January, which is 8°C. Thus the climate is characterized by hot summers and cold winters with monsoon months of June to September on average contributing about 84.40% of rainfall which almost match with national average (80%). The climate is suitable for a variety of crops including rice, maize, jute, sugarcane, potatoes, tobacco etc.

The mean annual rainfall figures for Jaleshwar and Tulsi are 970 mm and 1706 mm, respectively. Tulsi, located in the north, receives more rainfall, mainly because of the orographic effect on the prevailing summer monsoon. Flood frequency analysis of different period was estimated by both rational and empirical formula used for ungauged river. The results obtained are presented in Table 4.1. Among the method used to estimate

22 flood discharge, rational method yielded higher discharge value in comparison to other method used. This is because Nepal lacks sufficient databases of hydrological and topographical characteristics that affect rainfall runoff data collection, land use, land cover and soil type (Rijal, 2014).

Table 4.1 Comparison of Peak Discharge with Various Method for Ungauged Catchment

Return Period Stadard WECS(Qp= DHM(Qp Modified Rational 3 3 Normal m /s) =m /s) Dicken's (Qp= (Qp= m3/s) Variate m3/s)

2 0 465 506 505 1895 5 0.842 705 817 817 2071 10 1.282 877 1049 1053 2351 25 1.5715 1011 1237 1365 3122 50 2.054 1284 1627 1601 4200 100 2.326 1469 1899 1837 5378 500 2.878 1929 2600 2385 8506 1000 3.09 2142 2933 2621 10038

Further analysis of rainfall data of Jaleshwar and Tulsi station indicates that monsoon is active from May to October (13.86 % of annual volume) in the area and maximum rainfall between May to October at Jaleshwar and Tulsi area 207 mm to 172 mm and 311.3 mm to 210.0 mm respectively. These volumes of rainfall are sufficient to cause flashflood in Ratu river and its frequency is in increasing trend. Peak discharge estimated from 24hr extreme rainfall (Table 4.2) using Narayani method when compared with peak discharge obtained from WECS/DHM, Modified Dicken’s and Rational methods, revealed increase in frequency of flood of different return period as shown in Table 4.2 and Figure 4.2 respectively. Besides, perception of local people also revealed increase in frequency of high intensity low duration rainfall in the area and consequently responsible for damaging flood.

Table 4.2 Flood Discharge Estimated by Narayani Method:

24-hr (Qp 24-hr Max (Qp 24-hr Max (Qp Year Max ppt. Year 3 Year 3 =m3/s) ppt. (mm) =m /s) ppt. (mm) =m /s) (mm)

1987 233.8 1991 1997 128.3 1276 2007 131.2 1298 1988 182.3 1656 1998 146.3 1407 2008 108.3 1126 1989 118.2 1201 1999 96.5 1033 2009 107.4 1119 1990 123.5 1241 2000 125.3 1254 2010 84.4 936 1991 164.2 1532 2001 93.2 1007 2011 168.3 1561 1992 69.4 809 2002 92.2 999 2012 94.4 1017 1993 145.3 1400 2003 104.5 1096 2013 78.4 886 1994 114.3 1172 2004 275.5 2249 2014 126.4 1262 1995 252.3 2107 2005 153.4 1457 2016 126.5 1263 1996 127.4 1270 2006 124.3 1247 2017 410.3 3020

23

Comparison of Peak Discharge (1987 to 2017)

3163

2863

2563

2263

1963

1663

1363

1063

763

463

163 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30

Average Peak Discharge-2 Years Return Period

Peak Discharge (Narayani Method,m3/s)

Figure 4.2: Comparison of Peak Discharge of Narayani Method with 2 years Returns Period of WECS/DHM method

4.2 Analysis of Land Use/Land Cover Change from Google Earth Image

As per land use map of 1996, about two-thirds of the basin was under cultivation. Forests occupy 128 sq. km, or 24% of the total watershed area (Table 4.4). Of that, 103 sq. km are on the hill slopes with the remaining forests situated on flood plain. A considerable portion (6.04%) of the basin area comprises bare ground with recent sand and gravel deposits. A huge proportion of the sand and gravel is concentrated in the upper and middle reaches, i.e., the inner river valley. Other land uses, such as orchards, and ponds, cover 3.04% of the total area. Built-up areas and ponds are concentrated on the alluvial plain. Land use map of 2016 shows, the area under forest cover had decreased from 128.04 sq. km to 124.76 sq. km, which is a decline of 3.34% in forest cover during the last 20 years (ICIMOD, 2007 and Land Use Map, 2016). Similarly buildup area has increased drastically from 3.9 sq. km to 17.95 sq. km. Area of sand and gravel has decreased from 31.39 sq.km to 20.65 sq.km and comprises 34.21% change. Such change is attributable to construction of embankment which has confined flow. This area has been used as buildup area and lies in floodplain. Area under cultivation has slightly decreased (3.71 sq.km) between 1996 and 2016. Land use change between 1996 and 2016 is presented in Table 4.3.

24 Table 4.3 Land Use Change in Study Area

% % % Area (sq. km), Area (sq. km), S.N Land Use coverage coverage Change 1996 2016

Buildup 0.73 17.95 3.38 360 1 3.9 Area 64.69 340.42 63.98 1.07 2 Cultivation 344.13

24.07 123.76 23.26 3.34 3 Forest 128.04

1.84 12.35 2.32 12.83 4 Orchard 9.81

5.90 20.65 3.88 34.21 5 Sand 31.39

Water 0.50 2.51 0.48 6.0 6 2.67 Body Pond or 0.47 3.02 0.57 20.31 7 2.51 Lake 11.34 2.13 18.74 8 Others 9.55 1.79

100 532 100 Total 532

Source: ICIMOD, 2004 & Land Use Map, 2016

Further analysis of satellite image in Figure 3.4 and figure 4.3 of the years 1990 and 2016 of study area confirm that the forested covered area has decreased with medium ratio and this area changed into agricultural and built-up area. There was moderately dense to dense forest interspersed by patches of cultivated land around the settlements located in the active fan area. These settlements are Lalgadh, Lalbhiti, Bandra, Bengadarbar, Jamindartol, Chaulikha, Krishnapur, and Krishnagar.

Between last two decade, people have encroached towards flood plain of Ratu river and hence vulnerability to flood hazard has increased during this period than in past. Not only forest area has decreased but agriculture land has also decreased towards downstream of Ratu bridge of East-West highway while towards upstream of Ratu bridge of East-West highway there are very slight decrease in both forested and agriculture land. Open space had mix up increase and decrease. Between 1990 and 2016 there is slight decrease in the area of water body.

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Figure 4.3: Land Use Map of Ratu Watershed, 2016

Decrease in forest cover, people encroachment to flood plain of river, increase in built up area, combined with fragile geology, increase in high intensity low duration rainfall and lack of proper soil water management has posed very high sedimentation problem in the study area. From figure 4.4 of one of the tributaries (Khau Ropne Jhori) of Ratu river, alarming rate of sedimentation can be observed. The upper reach is hence characterized as erosion zone while downstream (plain) region as deposition zone of very low relief and

26 gentle slope. Due to high rate of sedimentation river bed is aggrading and some settlement downstream (Terai region) of study area lie below the existing bed level of river. Such Area like Pashupati Nagar, Kishan Nagar, Lalgad, Sarpallo are at high risk and vulnerable to flooding.

Figure 4.4: Sediment Deposition in Khau Ropne Jhori of Ratu River (October, 2017)

The channel morphology of the Ratu River is dynamic. There have been remarkable changes in the number of distributaries, channel width, flood plain width, and catchment size as indicated in the satellite images taken between 1984 and 2019. Considerable change in channel morphology was noticed 20-30 km downstream from the source of the Ratu River (Figures 3.6). There have been fluctuations in the number of distributaries between 1984 and 2019, with a general declining trend in recent periods. Such a reduction in the number of distributaries in recent times could be attributed to increased river training activities.

4.3 Perceived Impacts of Climate Change on Flooding

4.3.1 Perceived Change in Frequency of Flood Hazard

The perception of the respondents with regards to the change in the number of devastating flood events in the study area was recorded through focus group discussion organized separately in the four wards wherein the participants were asked to recall the number of devastating floods in their memory in successive 5 years time interval over past 30 years in the study area. The devastating flood event was defined as an incidence producing significant damage to life and stressing people’s livelihood for significant period of time. The obtained responses of the people on the number of damaging flood events at the four study wards of municipality are provided in Table 4.4.

27 Table 4.4 Perceived Frequency of Devastating Flood in Study area

Time Period (Years) Numbers of Devastating Flood Events Tulsi Kalapani Lalgad Sarpallo 0-5 1 0 2 2 5-10 2 1 4 3 10-15 2 2 5 5 15-20 5 5 5 5 20-25 5 5 5 3 25-30 5 5 5 2 Mean per year 0.66 0.6 0.86 0.67

The perceived responses of the people at the four location reveals decrease in the number of devastating flood events over past 30 years than those occurring prior to this time period. Reduction in the number of damaging flood events in the immediate past 5 years time period, as perceived by them, is attributable to the construction of flood control embankment since 2009 by PEP/DWIDM and later by UNDP.

The number of damaging flood event in successive 5 years time period in Lalgad and Sarpallo was perceived to be larger than those recalled by the respondents in Tulsi and Kalapani. The reason for large incidences of damaging flood events in Lalgad and Sarpallo, as revealed by the respondents in these two wards are because of concentrated flow of all distributaries of Ratu river at Lalgad and similarly at Sarpallo due to concentrated flow of whole Ratu river systems including flow from Jangha river, which later diverted its course towards Sarpallo and mix in Ratu River at Sarpallo.

Incidences of damaging floods in the areas downstream of Ratu bridge of East-West highway have been frequent. The respondent of FGD and later verified with KII reveal incidences of heavy floods in 1977, 1981, 1995, 1988, 1993, 1998, 2004, 2006 and 2017. They revealed that construction of flood control embankment from 2009 helped lowering the intensity of flood damages in the entire area in a considerable way.

High intensity low duration rainfall, deforestation, landslide and encroachment to floodplain has increased rate of sedimentation in the river channel, which has been responsible for changes in the river morphology and hydraulics. These causes are identified as the major cause of flooding and flood damages in the downstream areas. However, the intensity of damage produced by the flood incidences was noted to be different at different locations, which clearly shows that the damages resulting from the flood incidences are location specific and determined by physiography and river morphology at the local level. Tulsi and Kalapani situated at same location, former on left bank and later on right bank of Ratu river experienced different level of damages. Tulsi located near to floodplain suffer more than that of Kalapani situated at high altitude.

The past history of morphological changes in Ratu River confirms that the river is aggrading, producing meandering pattern and braiding into multiple channels. In the incidences of floods, bank erosion and the river water spilling over the banks in the areas with natural depressions has been common. This is the reason that flood water entering into the settlement and causing damaged to lives and properties has been more frequent in all the settlements in the downstream areas.

28 4.3.2 Perceived Cause of Damaging Flood Events

In order to identify the causes to damaging flood incidences, the respondents in the focused group discussion were asked to identify the causes to the damaging flood incidences perceived by them and also rank the causes in a Likert Scale in the order of importance, from 1 (meaning the cause having the least importance to producing damaging flood) to 5 (meaning the cause having highest importance in producing damaging floods). The obtained responses of the participants in the focus group discussion are presented in Table 4.5. The mean importance (MI) of the cause was estimated by aggregating the importance scale value assigned to each cause across the four case wards of the study area. The respondents identified the sedimentation and lack of river training and flood protection works to the most important causes (MI= 5.0; rank=I) to producing damaging floods in the study area. Similarly, increased incidences of damaging rainfall events in the study area is identified as the second (MI=4.5; rank=II), deforestation in headwater third (MI= 3.75I; rank=III) and lack of proper land use in the flood plain fourth (MI=3.5; rank=IV) as important causes to producing damaging floods in the study area.

Table 4.5 Perceived Cause of Damaging Flood Events in the Study Area

S.N Cause of Importance of Identified Mean Rank Damaging Cause in Producing Damaging Importance of of the Flood Flood The Cause Cause Tulsi Kalapani Lalgad Sarpallo 1 High rate of 5 5 5 5 5 I Sedimentation 2 Lack of River 5 5 5 5 4.5 II training and flood protection work 3 Increased 5 5 4 4 4.5 II incidences of extreme rainfall 4 Deforestation in 4 4 4 3 3.75 III the headwater 5 Lack of proper 3 3 4 4 3.5 IV land use in the flood plain 6 Depressed 2 2 4 5 3.25 V topography producing inundation 7 Extraction of Sand 2 2 5 2 2.75 VI and boulder from river bed

Past experiences show that flooding and inundation in Nepal’s Terai region occur following high intensity rainfall in the Siwalik. The problem of flooding and flood damages in the downstream areas gets aggravated due to deforestation in the headwater. Deforestation and loss of vegetation cover lowers surface detention and infiltration opportunity time and therefore increases the intensity of runoff resulting from intense

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rainfall. This is also responsible for accelerated erosion and sediment movement in the headwater. Chure hills due to their young geology and steep slope on the southern face is the largest contributor of river sediment.

Another significant observation emerging from the perceived causes of damaging flood incidences in the study area pertains to strong perception of the respondents on depressed topography of the study area, mainly to downstream of Ratu bridge of East-West highway, responsible for high intensity of flooding and flood damages.

4.3.3 Damages to Livelihood Resources Caused Due to Flooding

The participants in the focus group discussion identified six routes to the damages caused to the livelihoods as a result of flooding in the study area:

i) damage caused to the houses, ii) damages caused to animals and animals shelter, iii) damages causes to agricultural land, iv) damages caused to standing crops, v) disruption in the employment and income opportunities, and vi) increase in the health risk and medical expenses.

The perception of damages to each of the six routes of livelihoods in the in the memory of the people- floods of 1977, 1981, 1988, 1993, 2004 and 2017are presented in Table 4.6.

Table 4.6 Damages to Livelihood Resources Caused Due to Flooding in Study Area

Location Types Remark Losses /History of the s of the events Agri Major major La cult cause events/ye nd ural ars hum (ha land Forest oth an Livestock ) (%) (%) ers M F

Tulsi

1977 Flood Rain 1 - 3 10 5 5 - 1981 Flood Rain - - 3 10 5 5 - 1988 Flood Rain - - 5 15 7 8 - 1993 Flood Rain - - - 5 2 3 - 2004 Flood Rain ------Flood Rain 2017 Kalapani 1977 Flood Rain

1981 Flood Rain - 1 5 10 7 3 Flood Rain - 1988 - - - - - Flood Rain - 1993 - - 15 5 10 -

30 Flood Rain - 2004 - - 3 2 1 Flood Rain - 2017 - - 2 2 - Lalgad 1977 Flood Rain

1981 Flood Rain

Flood Rain - 1988 - 8 20 15 5 - 1993 Flood Rain - - 5 10 7 3 2004 Flood Rain ------2017 Flood Rain - - - 3 2 1 Sarpallo 1977 Flood Rain 1981 Flood Rain 1988 Flood Rain 1 - 25 100 100 - 1993 Flood Rain - - 20 125 125 25 Houses 2004 Flood Rain 1 45 120 120 17 House 2017 Flood Rain - - - 50 50 20 House

Though respondent does not recall exact figure of damages caused to houses, animal sheds, standing crops and employment and income opportunities, these factors produce immediate stress to livelihood as these have direct impact on wellbeing. The damage caused to agricultural land has implication to loss in the productive asset on one hand and increase in the expenditure of time, energy and financial resources in the reclamation of the damaged land on the other. Health risks resulting from flooding and inundation and consequently increases in the medical expenditure for treatment and cure brings additional burden to the distressed livelihood at the time of flooding. With regards to the study area, the damage caused to the agricultural land has been through stream bank erosion and stream channel entering into the cultivated area and deposition of sand and coarse aggregates in the agricultural lands, thus rendering the land unsuitable for crop cultivation for several years. Considering that agricultural lands and houses are the most important livelihood assets for the people, the process of reclamation and reconstruction begins right after the passage of the damaging flood events.

The households try mobilizing resources from internal and external sources to build a house to meet the shelter needs of family members. The people first concentrate their time and energy on those lands that can be repaired to begin with the cultivation of crops in the forthcoming crop season. They turn their focus on reclaiming more severely damaged lands only after the less severely damaged lands have been reclaimed. The land damaged more severely due to gully formation or river channel entering into the crop land or due to deposition of thick sand and gravel takes longer time and investment to reclaim.

People resort to a systematic approach of crop rotation, biomass and organic matter management to restore the soil fertility in the land damaged by deposition of coarse sediments. The damage to the standing crop was revealed to be resulting from prolonged duration of inundation of the crops and also mechanical damages caused to the crop stand due to high velocity of flowing water. The farmers at the four locations were found to have strong perception of losses caused to the standing crops, resulting from different durations of flooding. The respondents at all the four locations invariably revealed that flooding and inundation of rice for a duration less than 5 days does not cause any yield loss but when

31 the duration of inundation exceeds two weeks, the losses caused to the productivity of the crops becomes very large.

4.3.4 Preparedness to Flooding

Preparedness to flooding helps reducing the likely damages to lives and properties in flooding. The preparedness include prior plan of evacuation at the households and community level, identified places for evacuation and shelter during incidences of flooding, practice of using early warning system and preparation for food, water and emergency medicines for distress period. The responses on preparedness to flooding against the identified preparedness indicator provided by 100 respondents at the four wards are provided in Table 4.7.

Table 4.7 Responses on Preparedness to Flooding in the Study Area

S.N Flood Preparedness Indicators % of Respondent With Indicated Mean Perception of Preparedness Tulsi Kalapani Lalgad Sarpallo 1 Identified Place for Evacuation and Temporary Shelter Yes 50 50 70 90 65 No 50 50 30 10 35 2 Practice of using flood early warning: Yes 20 60 75 100 63.75 No 100 40 25 0 41.25 3 Preparation food, water and medicine for emergency period Yes 10 30 50 90 45 No 90 70 50 10 55 4 Contact with the police and relief agencies: Yes 30 50 50 70 50 No 70 50 50 30 50 5 Trained Volunteer for Relief and Rescue at the time of Flooding Yes 0 0 0 80 20 No 100 100 100 20 80

Despite to past history of recurrent floods, experiences of the people in dealing with the flood emergencies and flood preparedness program conducted by Community Based Flood and Glacial Lake Outburst Program/UNDP in the study area, the level of preparedness to flooding was not good enough except in Sarpallo. Only few respondents revealed that they have been using the school, public buildings and emergency shelter (in Sarpallo, constructed by CFGORRP/UNDP), located on the raised lands, for temporary shelter in the periods of flood emergency. In Sarpallo community with support from CFGORRP/UNDP has also constructed Elevated Tube Wells to be used during the period of flood.

Only 63.75 % of respondents in four case wards of study area revealed that they have access to flood early warning system (FEWS) and are aware of flood early warning system

32 and its use while 36.25% do not have access to FEWS. The level of preparedness of the people at Sarpallo, in terms of relatively large number of people with access to flood warning system, trained search and rescue volunteer with necessary equipment and contact of police and relief agencies to coordinate relief and rescue at the time of flood emergency, was noted to render better preparedness to flooding in this area as compared to other three locations. People of Sarpallo reveal, due to this better preparedness there were no casualties and even no livestock loss in the devastating flood event of 2017 during which other area of Mahottari was severely affected by Ratu River flooding (9 casualties and 13000 houses damage was reported).

Before establishment of flood early warning system (FEWS) in the study area, people in the area has been making judgment on the likelihood of flooding and flood damages based on observation of river water level and the weather pattern. They invariably revealed that sudden rise in the river water level is the best indicator for them to assess the likelihood of flooding. In addition they have been guessing the likelihood of flooding based on the observation of cloud movement and rainfall in the headwater of the river. As all the four studied wards have access to electricity, people in the study area have access to television, FM radios and internet services which keep them updated with the weather condition. In addition, entire area of Mahottari and Dhanusha has connectivity of cellular mobile phone, which has improved the communication link of the people in the events of flood emergencies.

The respondents at Tulsi, Kalapani and Lalgad revealed strong need of putting in place trained search and rescue volunteer with necessary logistic, like the one in Sarpallo of Manra-Siswa municipality-6 & 7, for search and rescue during the period of damaging flood events for evacuation.

4.3.5 External Support for Relief, Rescue and Livelihood Recovery

The response of the people to the support available to them in rescue, relief and livelihood recovery during and after damaging flood event in the study area was mix; they were not very clear about support. Overall, 50% of the respondents revealed support available from government agencies (police, military and civil administration) in rescue and relief in the events of damaging flood events while only 25% of the respondents revealed availability of support from I/NGOs and humanitarian agencies in relief and rescue in the flood events. 25 % of respondent were not aware about the support of external agencies. They also revealed that government agencies are generally first responder in the events of damaging flood events. District Disaster Relief Committee (DDRC-Dhanusha and Mahottari) headed by Chief District Officers (CDO) convenes a planning meeting every year before monsoon wherein stock of the available resources to deal with the flood disaster emergencies and performance of relief and rescue operations in the previous years is taken. A strategy is then made to deal with the relief and rescue operations in the flood and other disaster emergencies in the forthcoming season (DDRC-Mahottari & Dhanusha). DDRC-Mahottari & Dhanush maintains the inventory of the physical (vehicle and equipments), material (food stock, clothing, tents/tarpaulin and emergency medicines) and human resources (trained volunteers, police and military personnel and humanitarian aid agencies) in the district to mobilize them in the events of flood emergency. The respondents revealed that other than government agencies, Nepal Red Cross Society (NRCS) is the key humanitarian

33 agency that organizes relief and rescue operations in cooperation with the local people in the area.

Contrary to the support available for relief and rescue operations, only 25% of the respondents revealed availability of support from the government agencies and 25% of the respondents revealed availability of support from the development organizations (I/NGOs) in reconstruction of damaged houses and livelihood assets. This reveals that much of the support available from the government and development agencies is limited to relief and rescue while the support available for reconstruction of livelihood assets has been much lower.

The respondents also revealed that there have been no support programs in place to extend credit to the flood victims for livelihood recovery. Only 40% of the respondents revealed availability of knowledge, technology and skill development training support provided by the government agencies and development organizations with the aim of livelihood diversification. They also revealed that even though crop and livestock production is the main stay of economy in the area, the knowledge and technology support extended by District Agricultural Development Office (DADO) in the diversification of agriculture based livelihood has been meagerly low. Compared to the four wards of the study area, access of the people to external support made available by the government and development organization at Sarpallo seems to be higher than other three wards.

4.4 Adaptation to Flooding

Adaptation to flooding in the study area involves both planned and autonomous adaptation. Autonomous adaptation to flooding involves adaptation at the household and community levels in the forms of day to day responses before, during and after the damaging flood events. Planned adaptations involve systematic efforts made by government and other agencies at household and community level in improving the livelihood system to deal with the flood events and the damages resulting there from. This section presents the adaptive practices of the people at the households’ and community level before, during and after the flood events and the importance given to each of these practices in minimizing the damages caused and/or speedy recovery of livelihoods. The overall flowchart of adaptation is presented in figure 4.5.

4.4.1 Adaptation at Household Level

Flooding and damages caused to the livelihood resources in the recurrent flood events has been part of the living of the people in the study area. Adaptation at the household level includes both autonomous and planned adaptation that the households resort to before, during and after the flood events. In the course of focus group discussion at the four wards in the study area, the respondents were asked to identify their adaptive options before, during and after the flood events that they have developed to protect their livelihoods from damaging flood events. Some of the strategies adopted by them prior to the occurrence of flood in protecting their livelihood include,

• raising the floor and plinth level of the house, • making drains around the homestead, • constructing flood protection bunds around the homestead, • moving the food grains to safe places within the home and

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• shifting children, women and elderly people and valuable properties away from home.

The importance of each of these strategies in the study area obtained in the four wards revealed shifting the food grains to safe place within the house, construction of bunds around the homestead and raising the floor and plinth level of the house as top three adaptive practices to minimize the damages caused to the livelihood resources. Shifting women, children and elderly people to safe place and preparation of emergency food and medicine kits for use during the flood was prioritized as the least preferred strategies among the households. When asked as to why do they give lower importance to moving the women, children and elderly people to safe place prior to flood, they revealed that women and children are important work force within the household and therefore shifting them away from home even before occurrence of flood would mean reduced capacity to make emergency preparation to protect the homestead and livestock in the events of flood. They also revealed that preparation of dried vegetables, nuggets and pickles is part of the routine activities in the household used, not necessarily for use in the periods of flood emergencies but for use when fresh vegetables are not available. These preparations are also used in the distress periods, such as those in the events of floods.

In the periods of floods the adaptive practices of the people involve frequent monitoring of the river stage to anticipate the danger and the likely damages; evacuation of women children and elderly persons, use of sand filled bags as the barrier around the homestead to protect from flooding, maintain contact with the rescue and relief agencies and moving the livestock and property to safe places. The people revealed that resorting to one or more of these adaptive responses depends on the anticipated flood emergency. In case of sudden flooding that produces emergency without leaving the scope of response, their first priority is saving one’s own and family members. Among the adaptive options that the people in the study area avail in the periods of floods, evacuation of the family members, frequent monitoring of the flood level in the river, and using sand bags to protect the homestead from flood water were identified as the top four adaptive strategies of the people.

After recession of flood to a safe level, the people who temporarily move out of the village start returning home and their first effort concentrates on recovering the homestead and livelihood resources left undamaged by the flood. Their initial effort concentrate on recovering the building materials from undamaged houses and construct a temporary shelter in shortest possible time in the case of house completely collapsed in the floods. The next crucial effort for them relates to managing food and daily essentials to maintain the living of the family members until the point of time that own production and income becomes regular to maintain the sustenance. They use their own saving in such period and in the case of own saving inadequate to meet the immediate need they seek loan from the relatives and nearest kin. The next important effort pertains to restoring the productive assets and making them functional to produce food and income. They resort to restoring the livestock production because it starts yielding products to meet the food and income needs of the households immediately. Then they focus on repair and restoration of least damaged land and cultivation of those crops and crop cultivars which start producing in shorter period of time. In the study area, recovery of construction materials from the damaged house, seeking material and financial support from relatives and nearest kin, cultivation of crops that produce quick yield and temporary migration for income revealed as the top four adaptive practices of the people in the post-flood situation.

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Figure 4.5: Flowchart of Adaptation Measures in the Study Area

36 4.4.2 Adaptation at Community Level

The participants involved in the focus group discussion also identified pre-flood, during flood and post-flood adaptation options resorted at the community level. The community level pre-flooding adaptation responses identified by the respondents were preparation of community level flood response plan, maintaining the cell phone contact of the head (or key member) of the households, formation of team of volunteers for rescue and relief, formation of team to maintain contacts with the government and development organizations, and maintain community level first-aid facility and the stock of emergency medicines. Among these options, formation of a team to maintain contact with the government and development organizations was first order importance followed by maintaining community level first-aid facility and maintains the stock of emergency medicines. Among the four wards in the study, all the community based adaptive responses received higher level of importance in Sarpallo than those in other three wards. Community level adaptation is better in Sarpallo mainly due to the flood risk mitigation and preparedness activities of CFGORRP/UNDP in this ward of Manra-Siswa municipality.

All the community based adaptive responses during the flood events received relatively higher level of importance than those of the pre-flood or post-flood adaptive responses. Among many responses, dissemination of flood warning for community level alert, maintaining collective watch on the property left in the village and evacuation of women, children and elderly people through collective efforts were identified as top three adaptation options by the respondents.

Again among the post-flood adaptation options, coordination with the government agencies and development organizations and assessment and recording of damages by households were two important adaptation options at community level. Contrary to this, collective sharing of labor for the recovery and reconstruction of damaged shelter and livelihood resources and equitable distribution of relief support reveal to be lower level of importance. This observation is indicative of low level of collective action among the people in the post flood situation.

4.5 External Agency/Government Supported Planned Adaptation

Government support extended for the construction of flood control embankment in 2009, through People Embankment Program/DWIDM was noted as the most important evidence of government supported planned adaptation in the study area. The construction of this flood control embankments was noted to have developed a sense of security among the people in the area. The households who were displaced from the area due to intensive flood damage and loss of lives and properties caused in the several flood events started returning to their original area only after the completion of construction of this flood control embankment.

The respondents in the four study wards however revealed that maintenance and upkeep of the flood control embankment has been poor and at many locations the embankment has already lost the strength to withstand major flood in future. This has started building a major security threat among the respondents. When the respondents were asked as to whether they would be ready to contribute voluntary labor in the repair, maintenance and strengthening of the embankments, they all revealed willingness to contribute voluntary

37 labor provided government extends technical support and help them in organizing user groups responsible for maintenance and upkeep of different sections of flood control embankments. They also revealed that considering existing precarious condition of the embankments, a major investment in rehabilitation and strengthening of embankments from the government side would be inevitable. They identified the need of strengthening and building new spurs for river side protection and also putting stone pitching on the inner and outer face of the embankment as a part of rehabilitation and strengthening effort of the embankments, specifically at Sarpallo. District Soil Conservation Office also has been working in the area for controlling gullies by constructing checkdams, Ponds and bio-engineering to control erosion.

There has been meagerly low level of investment in other areas of planned adaptation from the government. Knowledge and technology support for the modernization of agriculture was identified one such area where government support is crucial. The area has long history of flooding and flood damage and therefore the cropping systems and practices promoted in the area must match with the soil, availability of water and other growing environments in the area. Promotion of technology and technical know-how matching with the growing environment and also producing food security and enhancing income opportunity carries significant importance and this must receive priority of the DADO and development organizations working in the area.

Promotion of livestock and fishery also carries significant importance in the study area in building and diversifying livelihood of the people. Despite this fact, the promotion of livestock enterprise has not received due attention except limited effort made by PAF. The area has natural potential for the promotion of fishery due to the existence of large number of private and community based ponds. This also fits well to the livelihood strategy of the people in the flood plain. The area has natural potential for the promotion of commercial scale fishery. This would require systematic efforts of the people in the rehabilitation and management of existing ponds and also building new ponds backed by the support of the government.

Similarly Community Based Flood and Glacial lake Outburst Risk Reduction Project (CFGORRP) with Financial and Technical support of GEF and UNDP with DHM as implementing partner has worked on Ratu river for flood risk reduction measures. CFGORRP has constructed embankment, implemented sediment control measures, established Flood Early Warning Systems (FEWS) and other preparedness activities in the study area. The activities of CFGORRP were mostly concentrated to Sarpallo. Besides CFGORRP, CARITAS Nepal in collaboration with some local NGO is also working in the study area to mitigate flood risk of community but their work is mostly concentrated in upstream of Ratu river.

38 Chapter 5

Conclusion and Recommendations

5.1 Conclusion

The study was focused on analyzing climate change and land use land cover change impacts on Ratu River flooding and its effects on people’s lives, livelihood and how people are adapting to changing conditions. Study also attempted to analyze people’s perception regarding devastating flood and the way they are dealing with it. The methodology used in the course of collection and analysis involved: i) Land Use Map and Satellite image (Google Earth image) for land use land cover change analysis, ii) Climatological data on temperature and rainfall from DHM of the study area, iii) Focus Group Discussion to record and analyze people’s perception regarding damaging flood,and iv) Key Informants Interview and v) Physical Observation of study area.

Inreasing trend in minimum temperature is observed which indicate winter is becoming hotter than past. The mean annual rainfall figures for Jaleshwar and Tulsi are 970 mm and 1706 mm, respectively. Tulsi and Jaleshwar receive 83.5 and 85.3% of the annual rainfall in the monsoon season, respectively. Tulsi, located in the north, receives more rainfall than Jaleshwar in the south, mainly because of the orographic effect on the prevailing summer monsoon. Western disturbances bring scanty rain in the winter season and thunderstorms are frequent in the months from March to May. No considerable change in amount of annual rainfall observed in the study area. Frequency of high intensity rainfall has increased resulting increase in frequency of flash flood in Ratu watershed.

The vast difference between average temperature and maximum temperature (5°C), early onset of monsoon (May to October amount 95.15 % of annual rainfall) with rainfall enough to cause flood (revealed from estimation of peak discharge from 24 hr extreme th rainfall). Concentrated rainfall of large volume in one day (410.3 mm rainfall on 13 August, 2017 is one of the cases of extreme rainfall) that can cause devastating flood. Such increase in trend of temperature and extreme rainfall and on ground of people perception about increased heat waves in summer, increase in frequency of high intensity rainfall, and decline in availability of natural resources, drying of surface water, lowering of ground water table etc are indication of impacts of climate change on Ratu river system.

Drastic changes in land use and land cover (deforestation and encroachment to flood plain), excavation of the river bed for construction materials such as sand and gravel from easily assessable point, and development of infrastructure (roads, culverts, bridges, buildings) without due consideration being given to draining the natural flow of water are some of the reasons for an increase in the frequency and magnitude of flood and river- bank cutting in the watershed. Since many of the settlements are located in the plains area of Bhabar and the Terai, direct losses from landslides and debris flows are not reported. However, landslides and debris flows occur frequently in the upstream areas in the Chure region triggering water-induced disasters such as floods, bank cutting, channel shifting, and river-bed rise in densely inhabited downstream areas.

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People perceptions regarding the trend of occurrence of devastating flood reveal that both the frequency and loss from floods and river bank cutting has increased in the watershed (decline in loss of life after work of PEP and UNDP). Flooding due to shifting of the river channel and rises in the river bed due to siltation of sand and gravel along the river channel are also common in the watershed.

People living in the flood plain have strong ability to live with the flood and this has been possible with the adaptive strategies at the household and community levels. The adaptive practices resorted by the people at the household and community levels, before, during and after the passage of the damaging flood events, are generally autonomous in nature although people have their own preference to resort to them depending upon their own needs and socio-economic context. People generally assign lower importance to community based adaptation efforts than the adaptation at the household level before the occurrence of flood and after the passage of damaging flood events. Contrarily, the importance and value assigned to community based adaptive practices are much higher during the flood emergencies because capacity within the household is generally insufficient to deal with the distress period during the flood.

Development of physical infrastructures, such as river control works and flood control embankments by different agencies have been effective in building confidence of the people to live in the flood plain and helped in reduction of economic loss. But much of the support of the government and non-governmental organizations are often limited in the relief and rescue of the people in the periods of flood emergencies. Contrarily their support for livelihood diversification and in developing and sustaining adaptive capacity to deal with the flood is much limited.

5.2 Recommendation

Following recommendation are made based on the finding of study:

➢ Land use land cover change revealed as one of the major reason for increase incidence of damaging flood events. Hence to reduce magnitude of flooding and its impact, effective implementation of land-use zoning guidelines and building codes and standards needed. ➢ The problems of increasing risk and vulnerability are not associated with physical features only, but also with awareness level of community. Programmes well integrated with physical infrastructure and preparedness activity are therefore needed. ➢ Flood early warning systems is one of the best preventive measures for safeguarding people’s life and property from devastating flood and its effectiveness is proved in Sarpallo, hence such intervention should be extended to other area of Ratu watershed. ➢ Flood-mitigation and management efforts are mainly confined to rescue and relief work and structural measures such as construction and maintenance of embankment, retaining/gabion walls, check dams, and spurs. These activites along

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with program for livelihood diversification such as fisheries and livestock raising activities should be promoted in flood affected area of Ratu watershed.

➢ The capability of local people to respond to hazards and their resilience against them is poor in terms of physical assets, financial condition, and the technical capability of infrastructure. However, local people are willing to participate in and contribute to flood-hazard mitigation and management. Efforts should be made to tap this sentiment through developing and strengthening local community-based institutions. ➢ Land use and land cover change analysis revealed decrease in sand cover area in last two decade due to confinement of flow by embankment. This has encouraged people to encroach the floodplain. Encroachment to floodplain increases vulnerability and have devastating impacts on life and property at the time of flooding. Hence this remains scope for the further study and exploration.

41 References

Adhikari, D., 2016. Impact of Land Cover Changes on Agro-ecosystem and Food Security in Kodku Khola Watershed. Thesis. Lalitpur, Nepal: Nepal Engineering College Nepal Engineering college-Center for Postgraduation Studies.

Arnell, N.W. & Gosling, S.N., 2016. The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale. Climate Change, 134(3), p.387.

Bowyer, P., Bender, S., Rechid, D. & Schaller, M., 2014. Adapting to Climate Change:Methods and Tools for Climate Risk Management. Germany: Climate Service Center Climate Service Center.

Brigitta, S. & Forch, G., 2019. Watersherd Management – An Introduction. Berlin: Research Gate.

Bubeck, P., 2018. weADAPT. [Online] Available at: https://www.weadapt.org/knowledge- base/ecosystem-based-adaptation/the-impacts-of-flooding-on-well-being-and-the-role-of- ecosystem-based-adaptation [Accessed 8 January 2019].

CBS, 2017 a. 2017 STATISTICAL YEAR BOOK Nepal. Kathmandu, Nepal: Government of Nepal Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).

CBS, 2017 b. A statistical report. Statistical Report. Kathmandu, Nepal: Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).

CBS, 2016 c. National Climate Change Impact Survey 2016. Statistical Report. Kathmandu, Nepal: Government of Nepal:Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).

DHM, 2014. Sediment Control and Stabilization of Hazard–prone Slope & River Banks through Structural and Non Structural Measures. Kathmandu: Community Based Flood and Glacial Lake Outburst Risk Reduction Project.

DWIDP, 2004. Detail Project Report on Ratu River Training. Mahottari: Government of Nepal Department of Water Induced Disaster Prevention(DWIDP).

Dykema, J., Kriegel, N., Jimenez, A. & Chase, K., n.d. The Effects of Climate Change on Rivers. [Online] Available at: https://www.macalester.edu/academics/environmentalstudies/threerivers/studentprojects/lakesstrea msriversfall10/EffectsClimateChangePoster.pdf [Accessed June 2017].

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ICIMOD, 2007. Preparing for Flood Disaster: Mapping and Assessing Hazrd in the Ratu Watershed. Study Report. Kathmandu: International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmndu, Nepal ICIMOD.

42 IPCC, 2014. Climate Change Impacts,Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Research. Paris: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC. Jha, J.S., 2015. Flood Dynamics and People Led Adaptation in the Flood Plains of Kamala River. Thesis. Kathmandu: nec-CPS Nepal Engineering College-Center for Postgraduate Studies (nec- CPS), Pokhara University.

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MoHA, 2018 b. Nepal Disaster Report, 2017: The Road to Sendai. Study Report. Kathmandu: Ministry of Home Affairs, Government of Nepal Government of Nepal.

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Zvoleff, A., Wandersee, S., An, L. & Carr, D.L., 2017. Land Use and Cover Change. [Online] Available at: http://www.oxfordbibliographies.com/view/document/obo-9780199874002/obo- 9780199874002-0105.xml#backToTop [Accessed 8 January 2019].

43 Annexes

Annex 1: Checklist for Key Informant Interview

River/ watershed…………………. Name of Selected Municipality/rural municipality………………. Ward no……….. Date:……………. No. of HH: respondents: Major ethnic group: Major settlement area: a. Historical phenomenon of the river (Include Elderly and M/F)

water Slope water Aggradations/degradation Years remarks ways (tentative) availability condition before 20 years

15 years

10 years

5 years recent

History of Type Remar Maj Losses the major s of ks or events/ye the caus ars event Huma Livesto Land Agricultural land Forest other e s n ck (ha) (%) (%) s M F

b. What are the major problems and issue on the river system, river bank cutting, loss of agricultural lands, sediment deposition on agricultural land, frequent river meandering, inundation, others) c. What are the frequency and the most occurring time for flash flooding and water induced disaster?

44

d. Major causes of river aggradations/ degradation:

e. Soil conservation/ watershed, River training related any projects / works on past & present? Its impact? (Officials and people's perception). What is womens perception?

f. Existing situation for the river bed material extraction.

g. Major factor responsible/influencing the aggradations of the river system. Causes and effects. i.current practice and adoption strategies by people and agency (focus on low cost conservation/watershed management effects by people and agencies: ➢ Sketch photograph, technical details, costing etc. ➢ suitability, performance

s.no: types of the structure suitable for performance

Any bio-engineering technique used for the protection of land against flooding.

45 Annex 2: Checklist for Focus Group Discussion:

River/ watershed…………………. Name of Selected Rural mun/municipality………………. Date:……………. No. of HH: respondents: Major ethnic group:

Major settlement area: i. Socio-economic information(tentative)

1. Population Status

Ruarl/mun. Area HH No. (Ethnic/Caste) Population Total Sex Population HH ratio density size Male Female

Note: HH=Household

2. Ethnic composition (No. of HH):......

Ethnicity No. of HH Remarks (rural/municipality)

3. Education facilities

S.No. Type of institutions Number

Primary school

Secondary school

+2

Private school

4. Facilities:--

Bank

Telephone: PSTN...... GSM Mobile...... CDMA Mobile...... Ncell...... Others....

Electricity

Health post

Police post

46 Internet

Major Occupation (by %): (segregate it by gender, caste, Ethnicity)

Profession Total Women Caste/Ethnicity

Agriculture

Jobs/Services

Foreign

Employment

Small & Cottage industries

Others (if any)

5. Land holding:

SN Area % of people Remarks

Male Female Madhesi Janajati Dalit others

<0.5 Ha

0.5-1 Ha

1-5 Ha

>5 ha

6. Land Use of selected Rural mun./municipality of watershed area

Type Tentative Area Current agricultural practice(crop calendar) in (Ha)

Khet

Bari

Forest

Grazing Land

Barren Land

Other

47 7. Forest and Biodiversity Related Information:

Community Forest

1. Are there community forest in the watershed: Yes...... No ......

If yes, fill the table

Description/Name No of HHs /Benefited General Condition/ Remarks HHs * Problems: (Dense forest/ sparse forest)

*Note: Who are mostly benefited in terms of caste/ethnicity?

Write about the potential of Forest species, Agro forestry, others on the degraded/ reclaimed area near by the River course:………….. ii.Major Problem within river system (geology, flood, inundation, river bed extraction, Accelerated soil erosion, sedimentation and land aggradations/ degradation etc.)

…………………………………………………………………………………………………… …………………………………………………………………………………………………… …………………………………………………………………………………

History Typ Remar Maj Losses of the es of ks or major the caus events/ye even huma Livesto Land Agricultural Forest othe e ars ts n ck (ha) land (%) (%) rs M F

iii.Availability of water at river on dry and monsoon season. iv.People’s perception about the aggradations and degradation of the river. (involve women)

(Issue, problems, causes, constraints, challenges) v.Major landslides, debris, rock fall & others, their impacts? (Historical background if the problem is bigger) Who are affected more?

48

vi.Agencies (private/public) involved in the disaster risk reduction, watershed management activities.

vii.Are local people ready to contribute on conservation works? (What may be their responsibilities, contribution of work in cash, kind, labor)

Male:

Female: viii.What are the current practice and difficulties on the agricultural system?

ix.Are people aware about the causes of hazards? What may be the programs for awareness and capacity building? (discuss about women awareness level)

x.What about early warning system? Any existing? Is it required in the current context?

xi.How can early warning system be used? Who can be possible partners and how to implement it?

xii.How problem of siltation and soil erosion can be minimized from upstream to downstream of the related river system? xiii.What are the possibilities or coordination/ cooperation on working in river system, watershed management and enhancing adaptation skills on local people? (M/F)

xiv.Recommendation on river training and watershed management activities

i.River, Stream bank Protection Work remained within selected VDC ( field verification)

Location Type of Required Affected Major Remarks Erosion Protection HHs Conservation Problem Work (HHs) Works, Requirements

ii. Potential use of water on multipurpose (Drinking, Irrigation, micro irrigation, others (If there is any specific location or water source suitable for)

iii.Peoples requirement on non structural component

49

ii.current practice and adoption strategies by people and agency (focus on low cost conservation/watershed management effects by people and agencies: ➢ Sketch photograph, technical details, costing etc. ➢ suitability, performance

types of the s.no: structure suitable for performance

Impacts of land use/land cover change on flooding and livelihood resources in the Ratu River Watershed, Mahottari, Nepal 1. Demographic Changes

i. What has been the change in the number of households living in this part of sub catchment at different periods of time?

Year No. of Hhs Remarks

ii. What have been the reasons for change in the population in this part of sub-catchment at different periods of time?

iii. What has been the distribution of households by caste/ethnicity in this part of sub- catchment at different periods of time:

Caste/Ethnicity No. of Households in Different Periods of Time

50

Remarks

Brahmin + Chettri

Newar

Gurung and Magar

Rai + Limbu

Madhesi

Dalit

Others (Pls. specify)

2. Information on the Natural Resources and their Utilization

i. State the changes of Land Cover in this part of watershed over time (Assessment to be based on the perceived changes of the users on proportion of the area under each of land cover type)

Land Use Types Area Under Land Use Types by Year Remarks

1990 2000 2010 2018

Forest Area

Agricultural Land

Built Up Area

Open Space

Water Body

Others (Pls. specify)

ii. State the changes in the forest vegetation in this part of watershed over time:

Area (or % of forest area) by Ownership of forest cover Year Remarks

1990 2000 2010 2018

Public forest

Community forest

Leasehold forest

Private/Farm Forest

Others (Pls. specify)

51 iv. What have been the reasons for change in the occurrence of forest vegetation in this part of watershed over time?

v. Is physical infrastructure development responsible in the forest degradation? If yes, in what ways?

3. Information on the Water Flow Regime and Water Needs A. Change on Water Flow Regime i. State the flow regime of water in the Ratu River Watershed based on month of the year. (Make the assessment as: 0=dry, 1= very low, 2= low, 3= moderate, 4= very high, 5= very high)

Month Flow Regime Over Time Remarks

1990 2000 2010 2018

Baisakh

Jestha

Ashad

Shrawan

Bhadra

Ashwin

Kartik

Mangsir

Poush

Magh

Falgun

Chaitra

ii. Was there any damaging flood over time? (Make the assessment as: 0=no damage, 1= very low, 2= low, 3= moderate, 4= high, 5= very high).

Years Flood Damage Area of affected Remarks Over Time agricultural Land

52 B. Water for Domestic Needs i. Do the users obtain drinking water supply from the Ratu River Watershed? If yes, indicate the year of the system built.

iii. Is there any conservation initiatives/support for the watershed? i.e Users Group (Forest Users Association, Water Users Association etc.)

iv. What is the rule in use for these Users Group for the Utilization, management and conservation of the watershed?

v. What are the perceived benefits by the users from the formation of these Users Group?

vi. Is there any other local/external organization working for the conservation and management of the water supply resource?

C. Water for Agricultural Needs

i. What are the sources of water and irrigation schemes used for irrigation, and the area and population serviced by each of them, at different periods? In accounting these irrigation schemes do not forget to include those, which were being used for irrigation in the past but no longer in use now.

Description 1990 2000 2010 2018 Remarks

Surface Water Source (Rivers and Streams used for irrigation)

Surface irrigation Schemes

Groundwater irrigation Schemes

Others (pls. specify)

Area under Irrigation by season by irrigation schemes (specify the area under irrigation in monsoon, winter and spring seasons)

ii. If some of the surface irrigation schemes (FMISs) that were used for irrigation in the past have been abandoned and no longer in use, enlist them and identify for the reasons for abandoning these irrigation schemes (deficiency of water, competing water uses, high cost

53 of repair and maintenance, availability of more dependable alternative source of irrigation). iii. If some of the surface irrigation schemes (FMISs/AMIS) that were being used for year round irrigation are being used for seasonal irrigation now, enlist them and assess the changes in their coverage of irrigation over time? iv. What alternative sources of irrigation have evolved in the area if some of those used in the past have been abandoned? How have the alternative sources of irrigation been contributing to meeting the irrigation needs in the area?

54

Annex 3: Time Series Rainfall Data

Table: Time Series Rainfall Data of Jaleshwar Station

24hr- Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual max 1987 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Na NA DNA 1989 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA Na NA DNA 1989 NA NA 0 0 90 77 310 89 197 74 0 6 843 73 1990 0 0 6 0 102 131 285 201 344 0 0 0 1068 86 1991 0 0 0 39 33 131 257 20 0 0 0 25 504 82 1992 0 2 1 20 207 112 192 175 102 172 0 0 983 130.2 1993 6 0 13 58 33 127 295 461 179 0 0 0 1171 128 1994 26 7 2 2 46 43 190 195 297 0 0 0 808 86 1995 5 0 0 0 0 303 163 291 29 3 0 13 805 87 1996 0 9 0 0 16 217 438 245 211 127 0 0 1262 70 1997 13 0 39 71 29 121 272 257 222 0 0 41 1064 82 1998 6 11 31 68 100 110 589 551 0 0 14 0 1479 151 1999 0 0 0 22 151 515 316 445 63 22 0 0 1533 128 2000 0 11 0 20 103 369 171 314 10 0 0 0 997 154 2001 0 0 6 29 190 331 81 40 NA 0 0 0 676 72 2002 0 0 0 10 65 120 617 187 205 20 0 0 1223 154 2005 0 0 0 0 0 93 202 714 89 18 0 0 1115 184

55 2006 0 0 0 72 166 186 181 59 407 0 0 12 1083 113 2007 0 28 12 34 177 494 389 733 297 27 0 0 2190 170 2008 0 0 5 5 132 109 259 191 197 0 0 0 898 135 2009 0 0 0 0 53 43 47.9 232.5 37 47.5 0 0 460.9 49 2010 0 0 0 42 114.5 58 148 186 113.5 28.5 0 0 690.5 67 2011 0 0 0 40 96 154 458.3 137 NA 0 0 0 885.3 106 2012 0 0 0 0 109.2 79 141.5 394 115.3 37.5 0 0 876.5 210 2013 0 0 0 0 0 148 106 52 49.3 0 0 0 355.3 50 2014 0 0 0 0 132.5 119 54.5 523.5 NA NA NA Na 829.5 155 2015 0 0 23 0 0 NA 124.1 257 125 0 0 0 529.1 98 2016 0 0 0 0 82.4 368.7 264.5 189.8 NA NA NA Na 905.4 88 Mean 2.24 2.72 5.3 20.46 85.67 182.36 252 274.6 149.5 24 0.58 4.04 970.55 107 Max 26 28 39 72 207 515 617 733 407 172 14 41 2190 210

Table: Rainfall Analysis of Tulsi Station

24hr- Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual max 1987 0 39.6 63.8 12.1 90.4 120.8 795.4 698.8 593.9 207.1 16.8 3.7 2642.4 233.8 1988 0 66.6 39.2 124 84.2 330.2 462.4 522.8 415.4 28.7 12.3 16.3 2102.1 182.3 1989 19.7 0 0 0 184.6 174 591 240.2 495.4 21.9 0 0 1726.8 118.2 1990 0 31.7 24.5 41.8 191.7 159.2 551.5 327.1 337.2 47.1 0 0 1711.8 123.5 1991 34.4 0 7.4 88.6 100.8 396.5 152.1 348 415.3 103.8 0 20.7 1667.6 164.2

56 1992 7.1 13.5 0 0 133.1 117.7 352.7 212.2 249.7 103.1 0 4.2 1193.3 69.4 1993 12.3 0 28.5 198.5 68.5 133.9 636.9 581.2 139.8 135.9 0 0 1935.5 145.3 1994 59.6 19.8 13.7 34.8 57.9 158.3 377.3 275.3 305.7 20 0 0 1322.4 114.3 1995 5.3 17 7.4 0 156.8 387.3 353.2 741.3 108.2 31.5 42.5 19.3 1869.8 252.3 1996 15.3 0 0 0 91.9 380.6 751.7 265.4 191.2 80.2 0 0 1776.3 127.4 1997 13.3 0 43 54.9 77.2 322.5 447.3 470.7 269.4 73 0 53.1 1824.4 128.3 1998 3.4 5.3 34.8 37 49.8 159.5 920.1 556.3 171.4 53.3 32.6 0 2023.5 146.3 1999 0 0 0 2.3 246.6 297 514.2 503 165 149.3 0 0 1877.4 96.5 2000 5.7 27.8 4.2 44 150.1 229 342 470.6 85.5 27 0 0 1385.9 125.3 2001 3.2 0 0 68.5 311.3 206 473.8 517 328.7 210.9 0 0 2119.4 93.2 2002 36.5 12.3 0 108.1 149.2 151.2 925.1 111.7 320.7 150.4 2.2 0 1967.4 92.2 2003 22.6 25.5 40.6 63.4 192 365.4 593.4 163.4 194.9 83.1 0 12.5 1756.8 104.5 2004 13.8 0 0 81.8 100.4 238.4 1109.8 275.2 421 65.1 0 0 2305.5 275.5 2005 22.9 9.1 48.5 50.5 118.3 181.3 195.2 682.7 37.7 113.2 0 0 1459.4 153.4 2006 0 0 5.1 127.1 66.8 313.1 333.2 154.5 529.3 44.9 0 19.3 1593.3 124.3 2007 0 59.6 14.2 33.8 76.4 292.4 628.7 391.7 356.4 68.7 21.4 0 1943.3 131.2 2008 3.2 8.4 6.2 52.1 217.4 278.3 349.3 238.8 327.1 10.3 0 0 1491.1 108.3 2009 0 0 8.5 0 161.5 13.6 253.1 308 195.5 25.1 0 0 965.3 107.4 2010 0 3.4 0 54 71.9 236.6 297.2 375.6 170.7 19.8 0 0 1229.2 84.4 2011 3.4 14.2 13.4 18 125.4 177.2 524.2 319.6 381.3 31.4 38.6 0 1646.7 168.3 2012 12.3 4.3 4.3 94.4 45 251.7 216.3 278.7 223 8.4 0 0 1138.4 94.4 2013 6.4 39.8 0 64.3 242.6 284.9 174.6 236.5 239.5 119 0 0 1407.6 78.4

57 2014 0 14.4 0 43.3 149.5 344.8 207.4 617.2 254.1 60.7 0 0 1691.4 126.4 2015 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA NA DNA 2016 13.5 3.4 25.9 2.1 233 259.6 347.5 174.2 595.8 48.6 0 0 1703.6 126.5 Mean 10.8 14.3 14.9 51.7 136.0 240.0 478.5 381.3 293.8 73.8 5.7 5.1 1706.1 143 Max 59.6 66.6 63.8 198.5 311.3 396.5 1109.8 741.3 595.8 210.9 42.5 53.1 2642.4 275

58 Annex 4: Time Series Temperature Data of Jaleshwar Station

Table: Maximum Temperature

19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 A M 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 vg ax DN 2 Jan A 23 24 23 17 24 22 24 23 21 20 24 22 23 19 22 0 22 21 22 22 18 20 23 23 22 22 23 0 0 24 DN 2 Feb A 25 27 24 23 25 29 26 26 26 29 26 25 24 24 24 0 29 25 25 28 26 29 28 27 23 22 23 0 4 29 3 Mar 30 29 32 32 30 31 32 34 31 30 33 31 34 34 33 33 0 33 30 32 32 33 32 32 31 32 30 29 30 0 34 3 April 36 35 35 38 34 35 36 35 32 34 37 35 37 35 35 35 0 34 35 36 36 36 35 35 34 37 33 33 0 3 38 3 May 36 35 36 35 35 37 38 36 35 37 35 35 0 35 33 35 0 35 36 35 35 36 34 36 35 37 35 33 0 1 38 3 June 34 35 35 35 35 34 0 34 33 0 0 35 34 34 37 36 35 34 34 36 37 34 0 0 37 34 36 33 35 37 34 2 July 32 34 34 33 34 33 0 34 34 0 0 33 33 33 34 35 34 35 35 34 35 34 0 9 35 33 35 33 35 33 33 2 August 32 34 34 33 34 34 0 35 35 0 0 35 31 33 33 34 36 35 35 34 34 34 0 9 36 32 34 33 33 32 35 Septe 2 mber 31 33 33 37 32 33 34 34 33 34 33 35 0 34 33 0 34 33 32 33 35 34 34 35 35 0 32 0 0 8 37 2 Oct 32 33 32 29 34 31 32 33 31 32 27 32 0 33 36 0 33 33 31 32 31 32 31 32 30 33 31 0 0 7 36 2 Nov 27 31 30 26 29 30 30 28 29 31 22 29 0 31 0 0 28 27 29 29 28 29 29 27 27 29 25 0 0 3 31 2 Dec 23 28 26 20 26 26 26 25 25 27 22 28 28 26 0 0 25 24 22 24 24 24 24 26 24 28 23 0 0 1 28

59 Table: Minimum Temperature

19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 11 9 10 9 11 9 11 9 10 10 11 8 9 8 8 10 9 10 11 9 8 11 10 10 10 10 Jan 12 11 9 13 11 16 12 11 12 14 13 13 12 13 13 15 13 11 13 12 12 12 13 14 9 11 Feb 15 15 16 16 14 17 20 18 16 15 16 17 23 24 23 22 16 16 17 16 18 16 15 15 23 21 17 Mar 17 18 20 20 21 19 23 21 22 20 22 25 22 20 24 25 23 21 22 21 23 24 22 23 24 28 23 21 April 24 24 25 23 25 25 25 24 25 25 26 25 27 25 26 25 25 26 25 24 25 25 26 26 27 24 26 May 26 26 26 26 26 27 26 25 26 27 27 26 26 26 26 26 25 27 27 26 27 26 26 27 26 26 26 28 June 26 26 27 26 27 27 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 26 27 26 26 27 25 27 28 26 26 27 27 25 28 26 July 26 27 27 26 27 27 25 26 26 26 27 26 24 26 26 26 26 26 25 26 27 26 26 27 28 25 27 27 August Septem 26 25 25 26 26 26 26 26 25 26 26 26 24 26 25 26 26 25 25 25 27 25 26 27 26 25 ber 23 25 23 23 24 23 21 25 22 25 18 23 24 24 23 25 24 24 24 23 24 22 24 25 23 Oct 16 17 13 15 18 15 18 15 18 20 12 19 19 15 15 22 22 17 21 21 16 15 15 15 Nov 12 11 11 9 11 11 11 11 12 16 11 14 14 15 11 11 11 13 10 10 14 10 10 14 10 Dec

60

Annex 5: Peak Flood Calculation

Peak Discharge/Flood Calculation:

Typically, there are two methods of flood calculation employed and selected based on the availability of hydrological data. If time series discharge data are available (gauged basins), frequency analysis is the preferred method for computing design peak flood discharge. Otherwise, rational or empirical formula are used (un-gauged basins).

Since there Ratu river is ungauged river, rational and empirical formula is used to calculate peak discharge and is illustrated in following section.

1. Modified Dicken’s Method

This method is widely used in Nepal.

3/4 Qp = CT A

3 Qp = peak flood flow (m /s); A = total catchment area in 2 km CT = 2.342 log (0.6 T) log (1185/p) + 4 where T = return period (in years) and

p ≈ percentage of snow covered area;

p=(As+6)*100)/A

As = permanent snow covered area, which is area covered by glaciers and/or area 2 above 5000 m elevation (for Nepalese context). A=Catchment area in km =532 2 km

Table: Peak Discharge by Modified Dicken’s

3/4 Return period (T) CT P Qp = CT A 2 4.56031 1.12782 505 5 7.376254 1.12782 817 10 9.506434 1.12782 1053 20 11.63661 1.12782 1289 25 12.32238 1.12782 1365 50 14.45256 1.12782 1601 100 16.58274 1.12782 1837 200 18.71292 1.12782 2073 500 21.52886 1.12782 2385 1000 23.65904 1.12782 2621

61 2. Rational Method

This is widely used method for peak flow calculation for small areas. However, in practice, this method has been widely used in Nepal for even larger area as well. Following formula was used in this study.

Qp = C (Itc,p) A / 3.6

3 2 Qp = peak flood flow (m /s); A = total catchment area in km

C= 0.421LN(T)+0.3185

T= Return Period in years

Itc,p= Intensity of rainfall at time of concentration tc (mm/hr), and probability of exidence P.

Itc,p= (R24/24)x(24/ tc ); R24 = 24 hour maximum rainfall in mm 0.77 -0.385 tc =0.000325xL x S L= length of channel in m=82000 m

S= slope=elv. Diff/L=[(740-61)/82000]x100

Table: Calculation of yt for rational method

Year 24-hr Max Arranged in Rank P=m/(N+1) T=1/P yt Precipitation order (24-hr (m) (mm) Max Precipitation (mm))

1987 233.8 410.3 1 0.032258 31 3.417637 1988 182.3 275.5 2 0.064516 15.5 2.70768 1989 118.2 252.3 3 0.096774 10.33333 2.284915 1990 123.5 233.8 4 0.129032 7.75 1.979413 1991 164.2 182.3 5 0.16129 6.2 1.737893 1992 69.4 168.3 6 0.193548 5.166667 1.536599 1993 145.3 164.2 7 0.225806 4.428571 1.362838 1994 114.3 153.4 8 0.258065 3.875 1.209009 1995 252.3 146.3 9 0.290323 3.444444 1.070186 1996 127.4 145.3 10 0.322581 3.1 0.942982 1997 128.3 131.2 11 0.354839 2.818182 0.824955 1998 146.3 128.3 12 0.387097 2.583333 0.714272 1999 96.5 127.4 13 0.419355 2.384615 0.609513 2000 125.3 126.5 14 0.451613 2.214286 0.509537 2001 93.2 126.4 15 0.483871 2.066667 0.413399 2002 92.2 125.3 16 0.516129 1.9375 0.320292 2003 104.5 124.3 17 0.548387 1.823529 0.229501 2004 275.5 123.5 18 0.580645 1.722222 0.140369 2005 153.4 118.2 19 0.612903 1.631579 0.052262 2006 124.3 114.3 20 0.645161 1.55 -0.03546

62 2007 131.2 108.3 21 0.677419 1.47619 -0.12346 2008 108.3 107.4 22 0.709677 1.409091 -0.2125 2009 107.4 104.5 23 0.741935 1.347826 -0.30347 2010 84.4 96.5 24 0.774194 1.291667 -0.39748 2011 168.3 94.4 25 0.806452 1.24 -0.49605 2012 94.4 93.2 26 0.83871 1.192308 -0.60133 2013 78.4 92.2 27 0.870968 1.148148 -0.71671 2014 126.4 84.4 28 0.903226 1.107143 -0.84817 2016 126.5 78.4 29 0.935484 1.068966 -1.00826 2017 410.3 69.4 30 0.967742 1.033333 -1.23372 Average 143.5267

For N=30 Years Area=532 Yn= 0.5362 River Length=82000 Sn= 1.1124 River Slope=0.828049 elev.diff=679

Table: Peak Flood Calculation by Rational Method

Retur Reduce Frequenc 24-hr C (itc,p) Tc A Discha n d y Factor Max rge Perio Variate (K) Precipita d (yt) tion (mm)(Xt)

10.24 2 0.3665 -0.15254 133 0.347 7 12.5045 532 1895 10.07 5 1.4999 0.866361 131 0.386 8 12.5045 532 2071 10.63 10 2.2503 1.540963 138 0.415 5 12.5045 532 2351 11.81 20 2.9701 2.188057 153 0.444 5 12.5045 532 2795 12.92 25 3.1985 2.393324 168 0.454 4 12.5045 532 3122 16.33 50 3.9019 3.025655 212 0.483 8 12.5045 532 4200 19.72 100 4.6001 3.653316 256 0.512 8 12.5045 532 5378 23.10 200 5.2958 4.278687 300 0.541 5 12.5045 532 6657 27.56 500 6.2136 5.103746 357 0.580 0 12.5045 532 8506 30.96 1000 6.9072 5.727305 401 0.6093 63 12.5045 532 10038

63 3. WECS/DHM Method

WECS/DHM (1990) method employs regional prediction methods. It is a modification of WECS (Water and Energy Commission Secretariat) approach of 1982 and has been developed jointly by WECS and DHM (Department of Hydrology and Meteorology) in cooperation with WMO (World Meteorological Organization), WERDP (Water and Energy Resource Development Project, until 1989) and WISP (WECS/NEA Institutional Support Programme) in 1990. The following equations were used for flood forecasting:

0.8783 Q2 = 1.8767(A3000)

0.7342 Q100 = 14.639(A3000)

Q = EXP [lnQ2+2.054(ln (Q100/Q2)/2.326)]

A3000 = catchment area under 3000 m elevation

Table: Peak Dischaarge by WECS/DHM Method

Return Period Stadard WECS/DHM(Qp= DHM(Qp 3 3 Normal m /s) =m /s) Variate

2 0 465 506 5 0.842 705 817 10 1.282 877 1049 25 1.5715 1011 1237 50 2.054 1284 1627 100 2.326 1469 1899 500 2.878 1929 2600 1000 3.09 2142 2933

4. Narayani Method

0.644 0.741 0.234 Q25= 0.218 A R L 2 A = Catchment area in km

R = Rainfall, daily maximum in mm L = Length of channel, km

64 Table: Peak Discharge by Narayani Method

Yea 24-hr Max Naraya Yea 24-hr Max Naraya Yea 24-hr Max Naraya r Precipitati ni r Precipitati ni r Precipitati ni on (mm) Method on (mm) Method on (mm) Method (Qp (Qp (Qp =m3/s) =m3/s) =m3/s)

1987 233.8 1991 1997 128.3 1276 2007 131.2 1298

1988 182.3 1656 1998 146.3 1407 2008 108.3 1126

1989 118.2 1201 1999 96.5 1033 2009 107.4 1119

1990 123.5 1241 2000 125.3 1254 2010 84.4 936

1991 164.2 1532 2001 93.2 1007 2011 168.3 1561

1992 69.4 809 2002 92.2 999 2012 94.4 1017

1993 145.3 1400 2003 104.5 1096 2013 78.4 886

1994 114.3 1172 2004 275.5 2249 2014 126.4 1262

1995 252.3 2107 2005 153.4 1457 2016 126.5 1263

1996 127.4 1270 2006 124.3 1247 2017 410.3 3020

65