SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF REFORMS

DOI: 10.15826/jtr.2015.1.1.008 УДК 336.02 V. P. Vishnevsky, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Institute of the Economy of Industry of the NAS of Ukraine, Kiev, Ukraine Gurnak A.V., Candidate of Economic Sciences, Associate Professor Moscow, Russia

TAXATION, EVOLUTIONARY ECONOMICS AND TAX POPULATIONS

Abstract. The article applies an evolutionary approach to the study of taxation which, in contrast to neoclassical economics and institutionalism, is focused on the long-term perspective and population determinants of the tax system development. This approach is an element of a new – evolutionary – tax paradigm. The pivotal idea of this paradigm is the idea of tax populations, whose habitats may fall beyond the state borders, as the latter are historically contingent and often unite people who belong to different genetic and socio-cultural communities. The article presents an empirical and logical investigation of the main tax population. Empirical results are based on the use of the clustering method for the sample including 117 countries. As shown by the undertaken analysis, there are, indeed, groups of countries in the world relatively homogeneous in selected indicators that can be interpreted as some supranational model of tax systems. The clusters obtained, along with a logical analysis of the social and economic development of different countries of the world, allowed us to identify and describe the core features of the main tax populations which are the European, the Chinese-East Asian, The Maghrebi-Middle Eastern, and the Indian-South Asian tax populations. The concept of main tax populations proposes a new methodological base for and activity. This does not mean that the neoclassical recommendations on tax policy and reforms are unimportant in principle, but they must be used primarily as a means of streamlining the tax system within the tax population with regard to its specific context, subject to evolutionary problems of population growth, not as universal recipes for all occasions. Keywords. Taxation; methodology; evolutionary economics; institution; tax population; tax system; tax policy; tax reform.

Introduction case, European) had not led to the desired The tax systems of the world are very results; rather, it may be well summarized diverse. Among them there are those that by the former Prime Minister of Russia perform the functions entrusted to them Viktor Chernomyrdin’ famous formula: “We well, and yet there are clear underdogs. For tried our best ― you know the rest”. Thus, example, those tax systems that are now in the similar tax norms (VAT, personal , former Soviet Union states (Russia, Ukraine, corporate income tax, etc.) work differently Belarus) and summarize the twenty five-year in different settings. natural experiment (1991–2015) in the market transformation of a planned economy — are 1 Vishnevsky Valentine — Doctor of Economics, not the best sample. At least, the reports Professor, Academician of NAS of Ukraine, Deputy Director of the Institute of Industrial Economics of “Paying ”, periodically published by National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv, PricewaterhouseCoopers and the World Ukraine (01011, Kyiv, str. P. Mirnogo, 26); e-mail: Bank Group, classify the tax systems in these [email protected]. countries as the least favourable to business Gurnak Aleksandr — Candidate of Economic Sciences, development. It turned out that following Associate Professor of Taxes and Taxation Department, Finance University under the Government of the Russian the neoclassical prescriptions of reforming Federation, Moscow, Russia Federation, (125993, and copying foreign tax experience (in this Leningradsky Prospekt, 49), e-mail: [email protected].

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In order to identify the causes of this in the neoclassical world are either absent situation and explain how it could happen, altogether, or present as minor “obstacles”, it is necessary to expand the traditional or “noise”. A starting point of the theory is horizon of tax research and to analyse not the utility-maximizing abstract egoist who only the current tax issues and the routines acts rationally under conditions of his full already established (what can be called an awareness. Therefore, popular textbooks analysis “within the rules”), but also the on public finance, for example, Musgrave issues of long-term strategy development, of and Musgrave (1973) [4], Atkinson and scientific vision of the tax system’s future, Stiglitz (1980) [5], Rosen and Gayer (2008) and regularities in the change of economic [6], usually do not analyse the historical entities’ behaviour in space and time, that is, features of the tax cultures and traditions of their evolution. different countries and civilizations, which, This paper is organized as follows. In in real life, significantly affect the choice the first section we briefly review the exist- of targets and methods of the tax policy ing economic paradigms and their effects on implementation. taxation research. In Section II, we explore Tax institutionalism introduces specific the scope of conditions for using an evo- historical aspects of economic relations into lutionary approach in the study of taxation the economic theory through the adoption of and define the notion of tax population. It the postulates about the bounded rationality is argued that this approach promotes our and information awareness of the economic understanding of such complex socio-eco- agents, their opportunistic behaviour [7]. nomic process as taxation, and builds a new The relationship among the subjects is methodological base for tax policy and tax structured by the rules (restrictions) — reform activity. Section III presents an em- those deliberately created by people and/or pirical and logical investigation of the main spontaneous ones. The institutional world, tax population. Empirical results are based in contrast to neoclassical, is a universe on the use of the clustering method for the in which the transaction costs are not just sample including 117 countries. The clus- some “noise”, but one of the main factors ters obtained, and a logical analysis of so- that determine the development of the cial and economic development of different economy. So, for example, the differences countries of the world allowed us to identify in the national economies’ performance and and describe the main features of the main the tax systems of the border states (South tax populations which are the European tax and , the former West and East population, the Chinese-East Asian tax pop- Germany, etc.), incomprehensible from the ulation, The Maghrebi-Middle Eastern tax standpoint of neo-classics, can be explained population, and the Indian-South Asian tax by differences in the institutions’ efficiency population. Conclusions are drawn in Sec- [8]. tion IV. The very question about national economies and the types of tax systems I. Main Economic Paradigms and implicitly points to the importance of Taxation geographical, genetic, cultural and historical Traditional methodology of scientific aspects of the economic problems that lie research in the field of taxation is outside the institutional paradigm, and the neoclassical theory of welfare reveals the framework of its use. As noted economics, coming from the postulates of by Diamond (1994): “... there is increasing methodological individualism and rational recognition that this good-institutions view is behaviour of economic agents, taxation of incomplete — not wrong, just incomplete — whom leads to changes (growth or loss) in and that other important factors need social welfare [1; 2; 3]. Transaction costs addressing if poor countries are to become

114 Social consequences of tax reforms rich. This recognition has its own policy behaviour is part of a geographically separate implications. One cannot just introduce good and self-reproducing population of organisms, institutions to poor countries like Paraguay the development of which is determined by and Mali and expect those countries to adopt the laws of genetic and cultural co-evolution the institutions and achieve the per-capita [13]. The rules of interaction among people GNPs of the United States and Switzerland ... and the organizations created by them are not Good institutions are not a random variable set once and for all, but are changed, inherited that could have popped up anywhere around and selected. the globe, in Denmark or in Somalia, with Despite the fact that the evolutionary equal probability. Instead, it seems to me economy offers great opportunities to explain that, in the past, good institutions always long-term economic development, research arose because of a long chain of historical of the tax systems’ development based on connections from ultimate causes rooted an evolutionary approach has still been rare, in geography to the proximate dependent while the results received are fragmentary variables of the institutions” [8, p. 439]. [14; 15; 16; 17; 18]. The reason for such Evolutionary theory is critical especially state of affairs is seen in “obsession” with in relation to the static analysis of the the current tasks of the and the economy. The evolutionary approach lack of clear strategic vision of the problems, recognizes the permanent character of underpinned by an understanding that a changes as the main characteristic of the single Western-style liberal world, as well economic reality. They are thought to emerge as a unified neoclassical theory, has failed. not as a short-term phenomenon designed The reality, as always, turns out to be more to restore the equilibrium impaired under complicated. The world’s new economic the influence of exogenous factors, but as a order is not a globalist unity, but a multi- regular feature of economic systems. polar world of competing civilizations and Although the presence of permanent world’s regions that continue to unite around changes is recognized by all economists- the “core countries”. Economic theory is evolutionists, yet there are some not the neoclassical unity (neoclassical disagreements on the scientific explanation synthesis) either, but the complexes of of the nature of these changes [9, pp. 550- interrelated concepts, which are competing 551; 10, p. 343]. The representatives of one for the best explanation of the same sphere scientific approach prove that the biological of economic phenomena (or intersecting theory of evolution is the bearer of the spheres of phenomena) and for the forecast general ontological logic that can be applied of the future development. to all kinds of evolutionary processes, including social [11]. The representatives II. Formation of the ‘Hard Core’ of the of the second approach, on the contrary, Evolutionary Taxation Paradigm argue that generalized Darwinism is not able The search by the former socialist and to cover the important features of cultural newly developing countries of their place in development and, therefore, is no more than this new multi-polar world, which provides, an analogy which can be misleading [12]. inter alia, the formation of national tax In any case, the evolutionary theory extends systems, requires intensification of studies the scope of its application in economics [9, that proceed from the new view of the tax pp. 547-548]. The specific feature of this issues, and building consensus concerning theory lies in the fact that it introduces the the “hard core” of an evolutionary approach principles of geographism, biologism, and to studying the patterns of tax systems historicism in the scientific analysis. From development. its standpoint, a man with congenital and/or This core can include the following basic acquired inclination towards selfish or altruistic assumptions.

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1. The subjects of tax relations 2. Tax institutions evolve over time: they (taxpayers and tax authorities) are are changed (as a result of genetically and heterogeneous, prone to altruistic type culturally conditioned taxpayers’ responses of behaviour (cooperation with public to environmental changes), selected and authorities, tax compliance and rejection inherited. This occurs through the social of corruption) or to the selfish type of processes of tax memes2 and habits3 behaviour (defection of public authorities, transfer — on the individual level, and tax and involvement in corrupt routine4 — on the level of organizations transactions). Explanation of feasibility of and society, which can be regarded as social economic entities’ cooperation, which goes replicators (units of heredity) [21]. beyond the neoclassical analysis, can be This process is cumulative and found in the ideas of evolutionary selection irreversible and results in growing and fitness [19], particularly in the socio- complexity of tax institutions. The long biological theory of multilevel (individual history of taxation — from archaic natural and group) selection, according to which duties to modern taxes, which are levied in group selection is favourable for cooperative a non-cash form and require sophisticated subpopulations of subjects [13]. Moreover, accounting, public reporting, complex co-operators can form clusters that increase institutions of their verification and the likelihood of cooperation with other validation – is a strong argument in favour co-operators to invade the space of egoists of the fact that tax systems, indeed, possess (defectors) and expand its presence in it those qualities. [20]. They form tax populations united 3. Evolution of tax institutions leads to a by a common territory and dominant change in the relative competitive positions institutions — spontaneous and formal of certain tax populations, so that some rules with enforcement mechanisms for populations are growing, thus expanding their implementation, which result from the sphere of influence of their dominant years of interactions among these agents in fiscal institutions, while others are reduced a specific geographic, biological and socio- (degrade). Thus, evolutionary selection is cultural environment. Depending on the multi-level (the concept of “multiple levels history of its formation in that environment (the concept of “path dependence”), that is, a propensity "... to repeat the same act in similar tax populations differ from one another material conditions" [22, p. 16]. Another example so that the same causes have different of tax habit is a widespread accounting principle of prudence, when financial professionals in a situation of consequences in different populations. uncertainty prefer to estimate assets on a low value, and obligations (including taxes) — on a high value. 2 Meme is a "unit of cultural information acquired 4 Organizational routine is «organizational dispositions through the imitation of others" [21, p. 379]. Memes to energize conditional patterns of behaviour within an in taxation are exemplified by the ways of tax evasion, organized group of individuals, involving sequential originally found by specialists of one or more enterprises, responses to cues» [21, p. 379]. An example of an and then quickly spread through simulation around the organizational tax routine is a set of agreed actions of entire tax population. This phenomenon is important for company specialists working with tax authorities that the reason that tax legislation, in principle, cannot give are usually performed by them in the event of a tax answers to your questions in the economy, especially audit. In a broader sense, organizational routines are in relation to such complex entities as income and the order (religious, civic, economic), based on the value added. So, in practice, there is always a need for requirements, including mandatory (normative), on informal interpretation of formal tax rules. And if such how to act in a given situation [23, p. 6]. For example, a treatment has been successful, it eventually becomes tax legislation is prescriptions of how a business has part of the fiscal institutions specific to this population. to treat certain business transactions for tax purposes, 3 Habit is an "individual dispositions to engage in what to do in the internal if the taxpayer previously adopted or acquired behaviour, triggered fails to pay taxes in full and on time, etc. For more by specific stimuli" [21, p. 379]. The same ways of tax information about organizational routines, see Becker evasion applied repetitively, become a habit in taxation, (2004) [24], Becker (2008) [23].

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of selection” [13]) and occurs not only on evolutionary and biological factors is the level of economic subjects, but also on determined by their infl uence on the the level of tax populations. characteristics of human behaviour, including The proposed conceptualization of tax their preferences and the type of rationality systems research based on an evolutionary [25], which are of fundamental importance approach which, in contrast to neoclassical in the economic theory. Modern evolutionary economics and institutionalism, is focused psychology comes from the fact that “... each on the long-term perspective and population level of cognitive and behavioural complexity determinants of the tax system development, is acquired slowly, gradually, through is one of the elements of the new – generation upon generation, over eons of evolutionary – tax paradigm. time” [26, p. xiii], and that “... complex The pivotal idea of this paradigm is the mental functions including higher order idea of tax populations, whose habitats may consciousness exist for the same reason that fall beyond the state borders, as the latter complex morphological and physiological are historically contingent and often unite characteristics exist” [26, p. 11]. Herewith, people who belong to different genetic and historically established ethnic groups (races) socio-cultural communities. The priority are characterized by their specifi c features of for further research is to identify correctly action, depending on intelligence (specifi c such tax populations and to defi ne the reasoning, approaches to problem solving, limits of their habitats. For this, one should memorizing, etc.). It should be specially take into account at least three groups emphasized that, in this case, we are not of geographically overlapping factors: speaking about value judgments in terms evolutionary-biological, civilizational- of “better - worse,” especially from the cultural, and socio-economic (Fig. 1). standpoint of the hypothetical superiority of The importance of considering the the Western world, but only about the existing 7

Socio-economic Evolutionary- habitat biological habitat

Tax Civilizational- Population cultural habitat

Figure 1. Graphical interpretation of tax population habitats Figure 1. Graphical interpretation of tax population habitats The importance of considering the evolutionary and biological factors is determined by their influence on the characteristics117 of human behaviour, including their preferences and the type of rationality [25], which are of fundamental importance in the economic theory. Modern evolutionary psychology comes from the fact that "... each level of cognitive and behavioural complexity is acquired slowly, gradually, through generation upon generation, over eons of time" [26, p. xiii], and that "... complex mental functions including higher order consciousness exist for the same reason that complex morphological and physiological characteristics exist" [26, p. 11]. Herewith, historically established ethnic groups (races) are characterized by their specific features of action, depending on intelligence (specific reasoning, approaches to problem solving, memorizing, etc.). It should be specially emphasized that, in this case, we are not speaking about value judgments in terms of "better - worse," especially from the standpoint of the hypothetical superiority of the Western world, but only about the existing stat of evolutionary diversity of behavioural patterns that characterize specific holistic lifestyles of races and ethnic groups, which are reflected, among otrher things, in their IQ which, in turn, is only one (and quite imperfect) of the approaches to assessing the multifaceted capabilities of people. According to the observations by J. Diamond, the inhabitants of New Guinea on average are more intelligent, more alert, better able to express their ideas and active interest in the world around them than the average Europeans or Americans, so that "[a]t some tasks that one might reasonably suppose to reflect aspects of brain function, such as the ability to form a mental map of unfamiliar surroundings, they JOURNAL OF TAX REFORM. Тоm 1. № 1. 2015 stat of evolutionary diversity of behavioural Fiscal institutions of this population de- patterns that characterize specific holistic pend on historically established civilization- lifestyles of races and ethnic groups, which al and cultural forms of organizing human are reflected, among otrher things, in their life and activity, their shared cultural values, IQ which, in turn, is only one (and quite especially religious, which are inherent in all imperfect) of the approaches to assessing peoples. Civilization, by Huntington (1996) the multifaceted capabilities of people. “… is thus the highest cultural grouping of According to the observations by J. Diamond, people and the broadest level of cultural the inhabitants of New Guinea on average identity people have short of that which dis- are more intelligent, more alert, better able tinguishes humans from other species. It is to express their ideas and active interest defined both by common objective elements, in the world around them than the average such as language, history, religion, , Europeans or Americans, so that “[a]t some institutions, and by the subjective self-iden- tasks that one might reasonably suppose to tification of people” [32, p. 24]. Together, reflect aspects of brain function, such as the they determine the institutions, dominant in ability to form a mental map of unfamiliar a given society, that guide human behaviour, surroundings, they appear considerably more including the one related to the state and tax- adept than Westerners” [8, p. 20]. es. As noted by M. Weber, “[n]o economic So, on the one hand, there are compel- ethic has ever been determined solely by re- ling arguments in favour of the social con- ligion. In the face of man’s attitudes towards ditioning of the intellect, that the growing the world – as determined by religious or child is developing under the influence of other (in our sense) ‘inner’ factors – an eco- training he receives, of the intelligence val- nomic ethic has, of course, a high measure ued in the family environment, of the avail- of autonomy in the highest degree. The re- able training materials and hundreds of other ligious determination of life-conduct, how- social factors [27]. But, on the other hand, ever, is also one – note this – only one, of biological aspects also play an important the determinants of the economic ethic” [33, role. As Lynn emphasises, “[t]he position p. 268]. of environmentalists that over the course of Islam is a typical example, as it is con- some 100,000 years peoples separated by sidered one of the strongest and most via- geographical barriers in different parts of the ble religions today, and contains a special world evolved into ten different races with complex of economic and ethical standards, pronounced genetic differences in morphol- such as help to the poor, the denial of usury, ogy, blood groups, and the incidence of ge- etc. But at the same time, for the purposes of netic diseases, and yet have identical geno- this study, it is important to take into account types for intelligence, is so improbable that that Islam binds nations very different in all those who advance it must either be totally senses, such as the Indonesians, Kurds, Mo- ignorant of the basic principles of evolution- roccans, etc. Therefore, as Huntington says, ary biology or else have a political agenda to “... civilization and race are not identical. deny the importance of race. Or both” [28, People of the same race can be deeply divid- pp. 159–160]. A long-time scientific debate ed by civilization; people of different races about what has a greater effect on intelli- may be united by civilization. In particular, gence – nature or nurture – still remains a the great missionary religions, Christianity subject of controversy among modern envi- and Islam, encompass societies from a vari- ronmentalists and geneticists, and so far the ety of races. The crucial distinctions among chances of the parties have been about 50 to human groups concern their values, beliefs, 50 (Tayyari 2004 [29]; see also Richerson institutions, and social structures, not their and Boyd 2005 [30], Richerson, Boyd and physical size, head shapes, and skin colours” Henrich 2010 [31]). [32, p. 42].

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Finally, the socio-economic factors are rule of double-entry. Modern taxes are — also important in identifying tax populations, primarily liabilities of corporations, based since they determine the economic potential on the principle of limited liability and le- and specific features of the economic order gally obliged to keep records and prepare created by people that has its own value financial statements. Therefore, the main ob- — in addition to the factors of biology and jects of taxation — documented income and culture. The level of economic development value added of corporations and their assets, and its ability to generate value, and, even to income of those engaged in business, which a greater extent, the tax ratio characterizing is part of the economic costs — are every- the level of cooperation among people where the same (if you ignore the details)5. It to create public goods, their relationship is important to emphasize that, in our under- to the state and the institute of power as standing, tax populations do not cover the such — these are fundamentally important whole economic space of the world, but only features of tax populations that determine that part of it where there operate institutions the opportunities for their sustainable and organizations providing documentary development. It is important to note here accounting of transactions and the regular that historically established differences in calculation and payment of taxes based on it. distributing the economic potential among Thus, to identify tax populations’ different peoples can be explained by those areas, a working hypothesis proposes factors that J. Diamond figuratively called a methodological approach based on a “guns, germs, and steel”. But the roots of combination of races (ethnic groups), these differences should be searched in the religion (worldviews) and taxes (per capita physical and biological geography (taking considering transaction costs) cartographies. into account the achievements of modern genetics, molecular biology, biogeography, III. Tax Populations: Identification behavioural ecology, molecular biology, and Analysis epidemiology, etc.) [8, p. 25]. In this connection, it is easy to notice that the Empirical analysis (clustering level of taxation (tax ratio) in a country is countries). In the static aspect, a tax determined not only by the features of the population can be represented as a group of dominant behavioural traits and cultural countries in which tax systems operate in values, but also by the objective (depending a similar manner, are equally responsive to on geographic factors) needs for funding changes in the same evolutionary-biological, public goods, necessary for the survival and civilization and cultural and socio-economic success of society in conditions of the local factors, and have a relatively similar level area. This is evidenced, for example, by the of the relevant parameters. Cluster analysis fact that the Nordic countries with lower allows us to identify relatively homogeneous average annual temperature usually levy groups of countries, which can be interpreted greater taxes per capita than the countries of as tax populations. Southern Europe. To perform this analysis, we used 19 Language is also a fundamental civiliza- different indicators that characterize the tional and cultural factor. Yet, as far as tax effect of various factors on the formation populations are concerned, the subjects of and development of tax populations, for a tax relations have their universal means of sample covering 117 countries. All these communication accounting, based on the countries are different in terms of economic development, and are located in different geographical regions. The indicators reflect 5 This fact makes possible inter-state comparison of taxes, such as, for example, annual "Paying Taxes" from either their state in 2011, or the averages PricewaterhouseCoopers and the World Bank Group over a number of years.

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The group of indicators that reflect and the budget deficit in percentage the influence of evolutionary-biological of GDP; factors, include population figures (data • subgroup of social indicators, source: Index of Economic Freedom from presented by Gini index; The Heritage Foundation), and the climate: • subgroup of tax indicators directly the average temperature of the cold months characterizes the functioning of the (January or July) and the average temperature tax system of the state and includes of the hot month (January or July) (Climate three indicators: (1) the level of tax Change Knowledge Portal from The World burden shows the , measured Bank Group). as the ratio of total tax revenues Estimation of the influence of (including social security fees) to institutional and cultural factors was GDP, (2) the number of tax payments based on the indicators of the dominant (total tax payments), and (3) the time religion (The World Factbook from Central for fulfilling of (complying with) tax Intelligence Agency, USA), the size of the obligations (total tax time). shadow economy [34], corruption perception The last two indicators are used in the (Corruption Perception Index from Paying Taxes rating and reflect ease of Transparency International), and a number paying taxes by the typical enterprise in a of indicators that characterize the state of country-specific tax system. a country’s institutions and are used in the Since these indicators are heterogeneous, calculation of The Global Competitiveness and some of them are correlated with others, Index from the World Economic Forum, we use factor analysis to reduce the initial namely: property rights, public trust of set of indicators to a new set containing a politicians, irregular payments and bribes, smaller number of factors without significant wastefulness of government spending, and loss of the original information. The factors ethical behaviour of firms. The values of the are linear combinations of initial indicators last five indicators are measured on a scale by which the countries under study are most from 1 to 7, hence, a greater value of the similar to, or different from, each other. The index indicates a more effective functioning factors are uncorrelated with each other and of the relevant institution, and a higher allow us to get rid of “statistical noise”. number implies a better state of the world. Full information contained in the original The predominant religion is coded as 1 for set of parameters is reproduced by the same Christianity, 2 — Islam, 3 — Buddhism and number of factors. But the first factor (A) 4 for other religions. accounts for 41,4 % variance in the initial The socio-economic factor in the set of indicators. The first and second main development of tax population is represented components combined (A + B) account for by the largest number of indicators that can more than half of the variation — 54,6 %, be combined into four subgroups: and the first six major components A( + B + • subgroup of economic indicators +C + D + E + F) for 80,8 %. Each successive characterizing the level of economic component explains less than 5% variance. development of the country for this Therefore, further clustering of countries purpose; two indicators: GDP per was made based on the first six factors. capita (including PPP), and the Factor loadings can be interpreted as average annual GDP growth over 5 the correlations between the factors and the years; indicators (see Table 1). This allows us to • subgroup of financial performance give factors a meaningful interpretation. measure of the state of public The first factorA ( ) is most closely re- finances; includes two indicators: lated to the institutional factors (correlation public debt in percentage of GDP coefficients ranged from 0,793 to 0,948) and

120 Social consequences of tax reforms F 0,143 0,077 0,860 0,165 0,178 0,074 0,207 0,007 0,022 0,008 0,059 -0,180 -0,088 -0,035 -0,056 -0,174 -0,047 -0,276 -0,098 E 0,050 0,223 0,020 0,297 0,121 0,016 0,178 0,035 0,010 0,075 0,868 0,494 0,281 -0,112 -0,338 -0,309 -0,094 -0,105 -0,021 D 0,111 0,174 0,108 0,139 0,139 0,206 0,109 0,097 0,065 0,031 0,063 -0,931 -0,081 -0,512 -0,055 -0,056 -0,063 -0,093 -0,107 C Factors 0,252 0,085 0,690 0,171 0,151 0,124 0,097 0,028 0,096 0,066 -0,007 -0,068 -0,853 -0,468 -0,094 -0,390 -0,289 -0,336 -0,027 B 0,314 0,132 0,438 0,789 0,371 0,078 0,134 0,642 0,850 -0,211 -0,116 -0,592 -0,035 -0,441 -0,282 -0,073 -0,036 -0,213 -0,146 A 0,368 0,255 0,107 0,777 0,883 0,931 0,848 0,915 0,793 0,948 0,021 -0,008 -0,584 -0,298 -0,189 -0,105 -0,607 -0,286 -0,253 Tax burden (% of GDP) Tax Population (Millions) tax payments Total tax time Total Public debt (% of GDP) Budget deficit (-) proficit (+) as % of GDP per capita (PPP) GDP growth rate (%) 5 years average GDP Gini index average Shadow economy, CPI 2012 score Property rights Public trust of politicians Irregular payments and bribes of government spending Wastefulness Ethical behavior of firms, estimates, 2011 Dominant religion Average temperature of the hot month (January or July) temperature Average of the cold month (January or July) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 10 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 Table 1. Factor Loadings 1. Factor Table

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GDP per capita (correlation coefficient is “core” of the new workshop of the world, 0,777). The correlation coefficients of other intensive development of which is strongly indicators with the first factor are shown in influenced by the government using its Table 1. This gives reason to interpret it as resources, including tax, for active industrial a projection of the original number of states policies [35]. in which the quality of their institutions is Three relatively numerous clusters can considered in a dialectical relationship with also be identified in Figure 2. They are the welfare of the population. Clusters 3, 4 and 5. The second factor (B) explains the 13,2 Cluster 3 includes, mainly, the countries % variance in the initial set of indicators. It of Central and Southern Africa. These are is most closely related to the average tem- developing third world countries, many of perature of the cold month, and the Gini which share a common history of once being coefficient (the correlation coefficients colonies of European countries, but then, are 0,849 and 0,789, accordingly). Both of after the breakup of the colonial system these factors characterize the needs of gov- (decolonization), they faced the problems of ernments in taxes: the first – due to the fact formation of effective nation-states, as well that low winter temperatures account for the as effective tax systems. high cost of ensuring the proper functioning Cluster 4 combines highly developed of the transport infrastructure, maintenance North American and Western European and heating of public institutions, etc., and countries. Patterns of socio-economic the second – due to the need to mitigate the development, the relationship of citizens to problems of social inequality. the state and tax systems in these countries, The third factor (C), which accounts for are significantly similar because of their 9,3 % of the total variance, reflects the state formation on the basis of Western values of the public finances (correlation coefficient and legal norms, which can be generally with a budget deficit of -0,853 and the level characterized as liberal democracies. of public debt — 0,689). In this case, large The countries in this cluster dominated values of the main components of C indicate throughout the twentieth century, but now, a worse state of public finances. for various reasons, they are gradually The fourth, fifth and sixth factors account losing their previous political and economic for 6,6 %, 5,5 % and 4,8 % variance, respec- power [36]. tively, and reflect the impact on inter-state Cluster 5 also includes a number of differences in indicators such as population European countries, but these are the countries (factor D), the predominant religion (factor of the former Soviet Union, Eastern and E) and the standard enterprise cost of tax Central Europe, as well as developed countries compliance (factor F). in Latin America (Argentina, Venezuela). The results of cluster analysis on the ba- Histories of many of these countries are sis of thesesix factors are shown in Fig. 2. associated with attempts to try to build a Cluster 1 contains only two states – the society and an economy, and thus a tax fast-growing China and India. Separately system, based on the ideals of socialism as an presented in the figure is the rapidly alternative to the Western European and North developing Brazil – the largest in area and American capitalism. Now, many of them have population among the countries of South abandoned the old ideologies and principles of America. Each of these large countries farming in favor of those that are more inherent is unique in the evolutionary-biological in a mixed economy, connected with the use of (East Asians, South Asians, Europeans such options as a market mechanism and state and Mulattoes) and civilizational-cultural development planning. (Confucianism, Buddhism, Catholicism) Cluster 6 is, on the one hand, the most aspects, but together they make up the numerous — it includes 42 of 117 countries

122 Social consequences of tax reforms Figure 2. Hierarchical cluster analysis for 117 countries 117 analysis for cluster 2. Hierarchical Figure Figure 2. Hierarchical cluster analysis for 117 countries 117 for analysis cluster Hierarchical 2. Figure

123 JOURNAL OF TAX REFORM. Тоm 1. № 1. 2015 in the sample. On the other hand, its structure as some supranational model of tax systems is very heterogeneous and includes mostly (tax populations of the developed Western relatively small countries in Africa, Asia, European and North American countries, South America, and Europe. developing former socialist countries of At the same time, as part of Cluster 6, Central and Eastern Europe and Latin the subcluster of Muslim countries in the American countries, Muslim countries, etc.). Middle East and North Africa may be clearly However, interpreting the results of a defined. It is depicted as a broken line in cluster analysis, it is important to understand Figure 2. The countries of the subcluster are its limitations in addressing the problem characterized by rapid population growth. of identification of tax populations. One However, the growing relative influence of of the main technical limitation is the the Muslim countries in the world cannot be difficulty of forming the initial array of put down solelyt to the growing number of indicators, including the lack of comparable their citizens. Positive and, most importantly, international statistics on dynamics for a stable economic performance is demonstrated sufficiently long period of time. It should by the countries which are members of also be borne in mind that the statistics are the IDB (Islamic Development Bank). For organized by countries of the world, the example, Indonesia’s economy has grown in composition and the boundaries of which recent decades, becoming more significant are, to some extent, random variables [39]. and more stable and diversified than many In addition, the quality characteristics cannot outside observers consider. And if today it always adequately reflect the quantitative is the 16th largest economy of the world, indicators. It ismuch more relevant to take by 2030 it could enter the top ten and take into account the influence of ethical norms seventh place in the world, ahead of major of the dominant religion in the system of tax European countries such as Germany, the UK, relations, and the like. or France [37]. These facts clearly contradict Therefore, to identify appropriate tax the long-held beliefs that Islam, in contrast populations it is necessary to use the meth- to, for example, Christianity, is negatively ods of logical analysis in addition to the re- correlated with production relations that sults of a cluster analysis, allowing to form contribute to the economic development [38, “perfect images” of such populations. p. 280]. Logical analysis (creating patterns of Finally, a quite interesting cluster is tax populations). Building on the method- Cluster 2, including Japan, Greece, Italy and ological approach which leans on the results Jamaica. As for Greece, Italy and Jamaica, of the cluster analysis, it is possible to sin- one would expect to see them in a cluster gle out the following main tax populations: of European countries and Japan, next to the European, Chinese-East Asian, Maghre- other East Asian countries. In our view, bi-Middle Eastern, and Indian-South Asian. the combination of these countries into a Table 2 shows sub-populations of the Euro- separate cluster has to do not so much with pean tax population and some countries rep- the long-term evolution of their tax systems, resentative of each tax population. but with a specific situation after 2007– The European tax population, as 2008, when the aftermath of the financial the name implies, is represented by the crisis was a serious challenge not only to the Europeans (IQ — 90–107) [28, p. 16]) who national economies of these countries, but are recognized as one of the major human also to their financial systems. races by all the classic anthropologists. Thus, our analysis has showen that The Europeans have spread far beyond the in the world there are, indeed, groups original area and now constitute a significant of countries relatively homogeneous in part of the population not only in Europe, selected indicators that can be interpreted but also on other continents (the North and

124 Social consequences of tax reforms

South America, North Asia, and Australia), relatively high: tax revenues of the central developed, among other ways, by displacing government in the EU are traditionally high and eliminating the natives (in North and now account for 19 % of GDP (2012), America and Australia). Therefore, the or, calculated per capita, $ 6,4 thousand European tax population consists of several (constant international PPP $), including, sub-populations (Western European, North for example, $ 8,4 thousand/pers. in the American, Australian, Latin American, and UK, 5,8 in France, and 3,0 in Spain6. Tax Eurasian). But the main one — generic — legislation in the European countries, is still the Western European population. although complex, is well-developed, so The representatives countries are the that the transaction costs are relatively UK, Germany, France, Italy, Spain. The low: the United Kingdom ranks 14th in the predominant religion is Christianity (in its Overall Paying Taxes ranking (2014), and varieties developed under the influence of 14th in the Corruption Perceptions Index the Reformation), whose relation to the state (2014); France — 52nd and 26th, respectively, and tax is characterized by Jesus Christ’s Spain — 67th and 37th, Germany — 89th and response to the Pharisees, “... give to Caesar 12nd, Italy — 138th and 69th. Transaction costs what is Caesar’s and to God what is God’s” are slightly lower in Northern Europe and (Gospel by Matthew, Matt. 22:15-22), and they rise as we move down to the countries the meaning of which can be interpreted of Southern Europe. Given the differences in as that the service to God is separated from the levels of corruption and tax, one could the service to the state and the problems of speak about the different models of taxation tax laws formation and compliance or non- within a given population (subpopulation). compliance. It is obviously, for example, that the Anglo- According to Max Weber, “... in the main, Saxon model of island taxation in Great it has been the work of jurists to give birth Britain is very different from the continental to the modern Occidental ‘state’ as well as model of Mediterranean Italy. But both of to the Occidental ‘churches’ “ [33, p. 299], these models are still united by the European so that “... submission does not rest upon community. In this regard, it is important to the belief and devotion to charismatically note that it is not very productive to compare gifted persons, like prophets and heroes, or the tax systems of different countries, unless upon sacred tradition, or upon piety toward they belong to the same tax population a personal lord and master who is defined by with the same evolutionary-biological, an ordered tradition, or upon piety toward civilizational-cultural, and socio-economic the possible incumbents of office fiefs and context. office prebends who are legitimized in their Tax subpopulations of Latin America own right through privilege and conferment. (representative countries: Argentina, Boliv- Rather, submission under legal authority ia, Brazil, Venezuela) and Eurasia (represen- is based upon an impersonal bond to the tative countries: Belarus, Russia, Ukraine) generally defined and functional ‘ of are also formed by Europeans who profess office’’ [33, p. 299]. Christianity, but in contrast to the Western The European demand for financing European, North American and Australian public infrastructure, determined, among sub-populations (which can be attributed to other factors, by Europe’s location in the the Anglo-Saxon group), they have such dis- northern latitudes and by the relatively tinctive features as traditionally more clan- low average annual temperature, is nish and authoritarian government, as well as coexistence (not displacement) and a mix- ture of individual ethnic groups and cultures 6 Hereinafter the figures are calculated according (e.g., in Brazil and Russia). Besides, the Lat- to the World Bank, PricewaterhouseCoopers and Transparency International. in American population has historically been

125 JOURNAL OF TAX REFORM. Тоm 1. № 1. 2015 predominantly Catholic, but the Eurasian and Ukraine is 164th and 142nd, Russia is 56nd one – Orthodox. The tax level, both in the and 136th. Latin American and Eurasian populations, The Chinese-East Asian tax population are somewhat lower than in Western Europe, is represented by the race of East Asians, in relative terms (≈ 15–17 % of GDP), but often also referred to as Mongoloids (these significantly less (≈ 2–6 times) in absolute include the indigenous people of China, Ja- terms: the central government taxes per cap- pan, Korea, Mongolia and Tibet [28]). IQ ita with PPP in Bolivia comprise $ 1,0 thou- of the East Asians (100-120) is higher than sand/pers., in Brazil — 2,2, in Venezuela — that of the Europeans, which, apparently, can 2,7, and further, in Ukraine — 1,5, in Belar- us — 2,6, and in Russia — $ 3,5 thousand/ pers. However, here the situation is much 7 Confucianism can be considered as a philosophy worse with the transaction tax costs – both in (world-view), and as a religion; however, in this case terms of the convenience and in re- the difference does not matter, the important thing being that Confucianism is the core of the universally lation to corruption. For example, according recognized norms and values: "East Asians may to the Overall Paying Taxes ranking (2014), profess themselves to be Shintōists, Daoists, Buddhists, Argentina is the world’s 153rd and 107th ac- Muslims, or Christians, but, by announcing their cording to the Corruption Perception Index religious affiliations, seldom do they cease to be (2014); Brazil is 159th and 69th, respectively, Confucians" (Encyclopaedia Britannica 2012) [46].

Table 2. Main Tax Populations

Chinese-East Maghrebi-Middle Indian-South European Asian Eastern Asian Repre- Representative Representative Representative Sub-population sentative countries countries countries countries Egypt France China Iran Germany Japan Iraq India Western European Italy Republic of Ko- Libya Nepal Spain rea Saudi Arabia UK Tunisia

Canada North American USA Australia Australian New Zealand

Argentina Brazil Latin American Bolivia Venezuela

Belarus Eurasian Russia Ukraine

126 Social consequences of tax reforms be explained, in particular, by genetic fac- not just a religion, but a factor of identity, tors [28, p. 96–97]. Representative countries spiritual and cultural traditions of the peo- are China, Japan, Republic of Korea (South ple, so that “[b]elonging to the Muslim com- Korea). The dominant ideology (religion) is munity ... creates a special kind of solidarity Confucianism7, which requires, on the one that is based not only on a single religion, hand, that the functions of the government but also on the world-view resulting from be carried out by the educated and morally the principles of Islam, on relations both to blameless people, and, on the other hand, individuals and to the society as a whole, to that each individual’s behaviour be guided ideas, and the nature of things” [42, p. 11]. by the principle of acting for the good of the A distinctive feature of Islamic doctrine people and the state, not pursuing one’s self- is the unity of religion and state, spiritual ish interests. As emphasized by Fukuyama and temporal power. In the domain of public (1995) [40], in Confucianism, harmony and finance and taxes, it is common use of pub- cooperation are preferred over disagreement lic goods (mineral deposits, channels, dams, and competition, and the maintenance of etc.) and the mandatory payment of special order and respect for hierarchy are central Muslim taxes, which include the (a values. With regard to business ethics and compulsory tax for the benefit of the poor), tax rules, in contrast to the well-known Eu- kharaj (a land tax), (a poll tax), etc. ropean principles of Adam Smith, which are [43]. Such taxes, in addition to raising funds a little more than 200 years old, the Confu- for public needs, are designed “... to facil- cian tax rules are more than 2000 years old. itate the movement of the society towards They require restrictions to the rulers’ taxa- achievement of Islamic goals, and establish- tion powers and moderate taxes for citizens ment of a just society” [43, p. 27]. The tax (Adams 2001) [41, pp. 50-51]. This require- rate differs significantly in some countries of ment is combined with the relatively warm the population (depending on the presence climate of South-East Asia. Indeed, taxes of oil and gas fields13 ), but in general is rela- here are traditionally lower than in Western tively low. For example, in Egypt it accounts Europe: in China they account for 11 % of for 14 % of GDP or $ 0,8 thousand/pers., in GDP or $ 1,1 thousand/pers., in Japan — 10 Iran — 8 % or $ 1,4 thousand/pers., in Tu- % of GDP, or $ 3,5 thousand/pers., in South nisia — 21 % or $ 2,2 thousand/pers (2012). Korea — 14 % of GDP or $ 4,6 thousand/ Transaction costs related to the payment of pers (2012). Judged by the time spent on tax taxes also depend on the characteristics of obligations, the tax laws are more complicat- individual countries, but in general are much ed in Japan and China, and less complicated higher than in the West-European popu- in South Korea. Corruption in East Asian tax lation. For example, assessed by the time populations with the predominant Confucian spent on tax obligations, oil-producing Iran outlook is relatively low: Japan perception and Iraq are in the second hundred of coun- index ranks 15th in the world, South Korea tries (although oil producing Saudi Arabia — 43rd, and China — 100th (2014). occupies a higher position). Corruption in The Middle East, Maghreb tax popula- this region of the world is also considered to tion includes inhabitants related to the race be relatively high. of South Asians and North Africans, whose The area of the Indian-South Asian tax IQ is, on average, slightly lower than that of population, also inhabited by South Asians the East Asians and Europeans [28, pp. 54– and North Africans, as the name suggests, 55]. Representative countries are Iran, Iraq, is the Indian subcontinent. Representative Saudi Arabia, Syria, Egypt, Libya, Tunisia. countries are populous India and Nepal, Thus, this tax population includes those which are home to more than 1.2 bn people. countries in the Middle East, which practice The main common feature of this population Islam. This is important, because Islam is is Hinduism which defines the characteris-

127 JOURNAL OF TAX REFORM. Тоm 1. № 1. 2015 tics of the dominant culture. Unlike in the significantly, and it will be possible to West here, first, there is no strict division identify clearly some of the currently “grey” between the religious and socio-econom- areas. A major factor in these changes is the ic realities, while practical social norms increase (decrease) of races and migration are consistent with religious rules, so that of ethnic groups. The latter, as evidenced the existing legal codes can be considered, by the long-term European experience of among others, as an integral part of Hindu- relations with Muslim immigrants, do not ism [40; 44]. And, secondly, there is no cen- always integrate into the host society, to say tral religious authority, establishing the rules nothing of assimilation. Therefore, if some of orthodoxy. This religion is characterized stable social groups, established as a result by the global perception of the world space of the centuries-old process of gene-culture (dharama) and futuristic vision (karma). In co-evolution, widen (narrow) its habitat, relation to the economy and wealth, Hindu- including the crossing of state borders, ism, like all great religions, warns people while maintaining its identity (such as, for about the dangers of wealth accumulation, instance, separate Islamic communities but it does not deny the rights of property, in Europe [47]), this leads eventually to and, moreover, gives priority to the person a change in the tax populations mapping. over the state [44, p. 9]. In the area of tax- Furthermore, populations themselves may es, according to the ethics of Hinduism, they gradually acquire new qualities determined must be defined and understood by taxpay- by a change in their geographical location ers (the amount of tax, income taxed, and the and increasing frequency of social mutation time of payment), because otherwise the tax due to change or recombination of social collectors could collect more than stipulated replicators [10, p. 351]. But, as already and assign a portion of the collected for their noted, in various populations the same own benefit [45, pp. 140-141]. In practice, reasons — for example, introduction of new current taxes in the Indian population are not taxes or change of existing rates — lead to high, both in relative terms (as of 2010, the different consequences that go beyond the share of taxes in GDP in India was 11 %, and traditional neoclassical analysis of the excess in Nepal — 15 %), and, especially in view of tax burden and loss (or gain) of welfare. the relatively low per capita income, in ab- Success criteria of tax population solute terms (in India – $ 0,5 thousand/pers., development are the relative (compared and in Nepal — $ 0,3 thousand/pers) (2012). to other populations) increase in its Tax transaction costs in this population are numbers, the expansion of the range, and also moderate. the increase of wealth8. Prevailing tax rules may be inefficient from the standpoint of IV. Conclusions conventional economic assessment of costs To make a brief conclusion, it should and benefits, or, for example, by the ease of be noted that the tax populations described paying taxes. But if those rules are adapted to above are presented as typical; therefore, the needs of a particular social group so as to they do not cover the whole planet or all the allow it to expand its influence in the world, countries in the world. In many areas (let us then they are performing well. This does not call them “grey”), there are such mixtures mean that the neoclassical recommendations of races, religions, cultures, institutions, on tax policy are unimportant in principle, or such specific historically determined conditions, that it does not seem possible to 8 For example, you should consider the fact that the clearly define their population-tax affiliation. world's Muslim population is expected to increase by But over time, in the processes of global about 35 % in the next 20 years, rising from 1,6 billion economic transformations, the situation in 2010 to 2,2 billion by 2030 (Pew Research Centre's with tax populations mapping may change Forum on Religion & Public Life 2011) [49].

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В. П. Вишневский , д-р экон. наук, профессор, г. Киев, Украина А. В. Гурнак , канд. экон. наук, доцент, г. Москва, Россия

НАЛОГООБЛОЖЕНИЕ, ЭВОЛЮЦИОННАЯ ЭКОНОМИКА И НАЛОГОВЫЕ ПОПУЛЯЦИИ

Аннотация. В статье предложено использование эволюционного подхода к иссле- дованию налогообложения, который в отличие от неоклассической экономики и ин- ституционализма сфокусирован на долгосрочной перспективе и популяционных де- терминантах развития налоговых систем. Такой подход является элементом новой — эволюционной налоговой парадигмы. Стержневая идея этой парадигмы — идея о налоговых популяциях, ареалы которых могут не совпадать с границами государств, поскольку последние исторически случайны и зачастую объединяют людей, принадле- жащих к различным генетическим и социально-культурных общинам. Представлены эмпирические и логические результаты исследования основных налоговых популяций. Эмпирические результаты основаны на использовании метода кластеризации для вы- борки из 117 стран мира. Проведенный анализ показал, что в мире действительно су- ществуют группы относительно однородных стран, которые могут быть истолкованы как наднациональные модели налоговых систем. Полученные кластеры и логический анализ социально-экономического развития различных стран мира позволили выявить и описать наиболее значимые особенности основных налоговых популяций, которы- ми являются европейская, китайско-восточноазиатская, ближневосточно-магрибская и индийско-южноазиатская налоговые популяции. Концепция налоговых популяций предлагает новую методологическую базу для налоговой политики и реформирования налоговых систем. Это не означает, что неоклассические рекомендации в отношении налоговой политики и налоговых реформ не важны в принципе, однако они должны быть использованы преимущественно как средство формирования налоговой системы в соответствии с траекторией развития той или иной налоговой популяции и учетом ее специфического контекста, а не как универсальные рецепты на все случаи жизни.

Ключевые слова. Налогообложение; методология; эволюционная экономика; ин- ституты; налоговая популяция; налоговая система; налоговая реформа.

Сведения об авторах Вишневский Валентин Павлович — доктор экономических наук, профессор, ака- демик НАН Украины, заместитель директора по научной работе Института экономики промышленности НАН Украины, г. Киев, Украина (01011, г. Киев, ул. П. Мирного, 26); e-mail: [email protected]. Гурнак Александр Владимирович — кандидат экономических наук, доцент кафе- дры налогов и налогообложения Финансового университета при правительстве Рос- сийской Федерации, г. Москва, Россия (125993, г. Москва, просп. Ленинградский, 49); e-mail: [email protected].

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