THE 2030 SPIKE COUNTDOWN TO GLOBAL CATASTROPHE Colin Mason London • Sterling, VA First published in the UK and USA in 2003 by Earthscan Publications Ltd Reprinted 2004 Copyright © Colin Mason, 2003 All rights reserved ISBN: 1-84407-018-2 Typesetting by MapSet Ltd, Gateshead, UK Printed and bound in the UK by Creative Print and Design (Wales), Ebbw Vale Cover design by Ruth Bateson For a full list of publications please contact: Earthscan 8–12 Camden High Street, London, NW1 0JH, UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7387 8558 Fax: +44 (0)20 7387 8998 Email: [email protected] Web: www.earthscan.co.uk 22883 Quicksilver Drive, Sterling, VA 20166-2012, USA Earthscan publishes in association with WWF-UK and the International Institute for Environment and Development A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Mason, Colin, 1926- The 2030 spike : countdown to global catastrophe / Colin Mason. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 1-84407-018-2 (hbk.) 1. Twenty-first century—Forecasts. 2. Environmental policy. 3. Natural resources. 4. Social prediction. 5. Catastrophical, The. I. Title: Two thousand thirty spike. II. Title: Two thousand and thirty spike. III. Title: Twenty-thirty spike. IV. Title. CB161.M384 2003 303.49—dc21 2003006476 This book is printed on elemental chlorine-free paper CONTENTS About the Author v PART ONE: CRISIS MODE 1 The Drivers 3 2 Running Out of Fuel: The Coming Energy Crunch 9 3 Population and Poverty 21 4 Climate: Too Hot or Too Cold? 29 5 Famines: Food and Water 41 6 One World? 53 7 The Fourth Horseman 62 PART TWO: DIRECTIONS 8 Which Way Science? 75 9 In the Genes: New Plants – and People? 83 10 The Values of the Sea 94 11 Multinationals: Good Business or Bad? 101 12 The Trouble with Money 110 PART THREE: UPGRADING THE INDIVIDUAL 13 The Pursuit of Happiness 123 14 Love, Family and Freedom 130 15 Habitat: The Dilemma of the Cities 135 16 Making Education Work 145 17 Health and Wealth 153 18 Religion: The Cement of Society? 161 iv THE 2030 SPIKE PART FOUR: THE NEW SOCIETY? 19 The Mechanics of Change 171 20 Automation and Employment 178 21 Travelling Less? 186 22 Working Online 192 23 The Information Overload 199 24 The Toxic Culture 205 25 Running the Show 211 26 Conclusion: World to Come 220 Notes 230 Index 244 ABOUT THE AUTHOR Colin Mason, a former foreign correspondent, broadcaster and SEATO adviser to the Thai Government, was a senator in the Australian Federal Parliament for nine years, as deputy leader of the Australian Democrats. He served on the Senate Standing Committee for Science and the Environment, a Select Committee on the effects of Agent Orange on Australian servicemen, and the first delegation of the Australian Parliament to China, and initi- ated the private member’s bill that led to the salvation of the pristine Franklin River in Tasmania. He has published 12 books including the international bestselling novel Hostage and, most recently, A Short History of Asia which is currently a bestseller in its field around the world. Comment or discussion on any of the issues raised in this book are welcomed by the author at www.2030spike.com. This page intentionally left blank. PART ONE CRISIS MODE CHAPTER 1 THE DRIVERS The decade from 2030 will see a remarkable and dangerous confluence of world events and trends – a spike on the graph paper of life that will influence humanity for good or ill as never before. Combating the worst effects of this will require urgent action, informed by the clearest possible understanding of where we are now and where we might go. Such action could lead us to a saner, healthier and safer society – the not too distant future could be one of unparalleled peace, prosperity and general well-being. The knowledge and resources for this are in place, or can be seen not too far away. We have the best educated generation ever; wealth and poten- tial wealth, though badly distributed, are at their highest and increasing, the automation of industry and agriculture promises almost universally high living standards and an end to the tyranny of heavy and tedious work. The world’s population may stabilize – but only if the poverty afflicting most humans can be alleviated. Speaking in London in 2001, former American president, Bill Clinton, called for ‘a truly global consciousness’ to spread the benefits of the 21st century around the world.1 ‘We have the means to make the 21st century the most peaceful and prosper- ous in human history. The question is whether we have the will.’ That hope is unlikely to be realized by 2030, no matter what we do. But, if effective social and economic reform can be started now, we could see a peaceful and productive transition to a new society shaped by, and successfully adapted to, the oncoming 4 CRISIS MODE adverse influences – the 2030 drivers. Beyond that is a reasonable prospect of a world order better than the planet has ever seen. Or the near future could be bad enough to kill tens of millions of people in a variety of terrible ways, even plunge us into a global dark age, and damage the very foundations of life, which could take centuries to repair. The harbingers of these disasters are already with us; as I write these words an ugly and costly war is smouldering in the Middle East, 20 million people are facing starvation in Africa, a nuclear war has been narrowly averted on the Indian subcontinent, while the warnings of severe water shortages and ecological damage are becoming more urgent. So there is a clear need to choose, to establish the courses of action that would contribute to one outcome or the other. And those informed choices will have to be made quickly. There is considerable evidence for the 2030 spike – the combined effect of at least six adverse drivers. The most reliable estimates set readily available oil resources at a little under a trillion barrels, and world consumption at 28 billion barrels a year, indicating exhaustion in, at most, 34 years. Predicted increases in oil use would reduce this time substantially. This will have major and unexpected consequences, not least a significant cut in world food supplies for a population that will grow to 8 billion by that time. Continued nuclear proliferation, policy changes in the use of atomic weapons in the United States and Russia, confrontation in the Middle East and South Asia, and political pressures from the drivers, make a nuclear war of unpredictable intensity only too possible within 20 years. The consequences of this would seriously aggravate greenhouse effects, due to become signifi- cant by 2030. The ‘war against terror’, the growing tension between Islam and ‘the West’, the doctrine that nuclear weapons can safely be used in a ‘limited’ way – all these will tend to aggra- vate the effect of the drivers. The International Water Management Institute predicts that a billion people will face an absolute water shortage by 2025; the United Nations warns of war over use of the world’s rivers by 2032. Problems of soil degradation, desert spread and salination, already considerable, will be out of control by 2030 in much of the world.2 Unless these threats are recognized and effectively countered, we risk famine and deaths counted in the millions. THE DRIVERS 5 Recent research into climate trends warn that severe global warming associated with carbon release from the Amazon rainforests and from methane hydrates in the Arctic is possible by 2030, with perhaps catastrophic effects by 2050.3 Even global warming and sea level rises on a much lesser scale would adversely affect agricultural land in developing countries. Failure to redress the poverty most humans live in, and an almost total lack of political control over globalization – which is irresponsible in the pure sense of the word – are likely to increase economic disproportion and the conflict it causes. Populations will increase most rapidly in the poorest countries, with the West containing no more than 15 per cent of the world’s people by 2030. Most people are aware of some of the facts surrounding some of these issues. However, because the drivers gain force by the simple fact of their interaction, their coincidence presents unique dangers. The major cumulative effect of the drivers, if they are permitted to peak, will be within the lifetime of most of us – certainly within that of our children. Can we avert it, or at least soften its impact? This is feasible but only as a result of funda- mental changes in human life and society, beginning now. Unfortunately, there is too little evidence that these dangers have been recognized. So who will make the necessary decisions? Judging by the available demonstrable facts, governments, polit- ical hierarchies, think-tanks, dictators and military juntas are mostly saying and doing the wrong things. Those new holders of power, the multinationals, could play a crucial role, simply because they are global and so big. But to be useful, including to themselves, their perception of the dangers of the near future must become clearer, their accountability guaranteed, their influ- ence more responsible. For the first time in history, the means are emerging for individuals to collectively influence the necessary decisions, using two potent tools – the internet and spending power. It is possible to discern the beginnings of international networks that could put pressure on offending corporations simply by the way consumers spend their money. But such pressure needs to be well informed by a reliable assessment of the state of the world and an agenda of reasonable priorities for action.