URBAN MOBILITY – March 2021 TRENDS, NEW TECHNOLOGIES and BUSINESS MODELS

Author Caroline Han

Submission Institute of Digital Busi- ness

Thesis Supervisor Prof. Mag. DDr. Johann Höller

URBAN MOBILITY – March 2021 TRENDS, NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND BUSINESS MODELS

Master’s Thesis to confer the academic degree of Master of Science in Digital Business Management in the Master’s Program

Joint Master’s Program Digital Business Management

JOHANNES KEPLER UNIVERSITY LINZ Altenberger Straße 69 4040 Linz, Austria jku.at

Acknowledgements II

SWORN DECLARATION

I hereby declare under oath that the submitted Master’s Thesis has been written solely by me without any third-party assistance, information other than provided sources or aids have not been used and those used have been fully documented. Sources for literal, paraphrased and cited quotes have been accurately credited.

The submitted document here present is identical to the electronically submitted text document.

Linz, 05.03.2021 Caroline Han,

Acknowledgements III

Acknowledgements

Firstly, I want to thank Prof. Mag. DDr. Johann Höller for supervising my thesis and his valuable feedback during the process of the thesis.

Special thanks goes to my family for supporting and motivating me through the whole procedure of writing the thesis. Special thanks go to my parents who guided and supported me to reach my academic goals and advising me in many aspects which also includes my future paths.

Table of Contents IV

Table of Contents

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS ...... III TABLE OF CONTENTS ...... IV TABLE OF FIGURES ...... VII LIST OF TABLES ...... IX LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS / GLOSSARY ...... X ABSTRACT ...... 1 1 INTRODUCTION ...... 2 1.1 Background of the thesis ...... 3 1.2 Problem Definition ...... 3 1.3 Research Gap ...... 6 1.4 Goal of Thesis ...... 6 1.5 Method ...... 7 1.6 Structure of Thesis ...... 9 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ...... 11 2.1 Definitions ...... 13 2.1.1 New Business Models ...... 13 2.1.2 Technology ...... 18 2.1.3 Trends ...... 21 3 IMPORTANT MEGATRENDS INFLUENCING AND DEVELOPING THE FUTURE OF URBAN MOBILITY ...... 23 3.1 What are Trends and what is classified as a Trend ...... 23 3.1.1 Megatrends ...... 24 3.1.2 Trends / Sub-Trends ...... 25 3.2 Trend or Must-do? ...... 25 3.3 Trends in Urban Mobility ...... 28 3.3.1 Megatrends – Urban Mobility ...... 29 3.3.2 Technology Trends ...... 40 3.3.3 Socio-Cultural Trends ...... 44 3.3.4 Gartner Hype Cycle ...... 48 3.4 Summary ...... 49 4 WHAT EXTERNAL FACTORS ARE AFFECTING URBAN MOBILITY? IMPORTANT ASPECTS TO CONSIDER FOR THE FUTURE OF URBAN MOBILITY .. 50 4.1 PESTEL Analysis ...... 50

Table of Contents V

4.1.1 Political and Legal Factor ...... 51 4.1.2 Economical Factor ...... 57 4.1.3 Social and ecological factor ...... 68 4.1.4 Technological Factor ...... 74 4.2 Impact Factors ...... 80 4.3 Summary ...... 84 5 THE RISE OF NEW SERVICES AMID THE SHIFT IN MOBILITY ...... 85 5.1 Charging stations ...... 85 5.2 Battery recycling ...... 87 5.3 Repair shops for sharing vehicles ...... 89 5.4 Payment service providers ...... 91 5.5 Summary ...... 93 6 SCENARIO ANALYSIS – THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ...... 94 6.1 Definition ...... 95 6.2 Origin ...... 95 6.3 The scenario funnel ...... 97 6.4 The process of a scenario analysis ...... 99 6.5 Performance criteria of the developed scenarios ...... 100 6.6 Disturbance incidents ...... 101 6.7 Summary ...... 101 7 SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF FUTURE URBAN MOBILITY ...... 102 7.1 Step 1: Task Analysis / Scenario Preparation ...... 102 7.2 Step 2: Scenario-field Analysis ...... 103 7.3 Step 3: Scenario forecasting ...... 104 7.3.1 Influencing factor 1 – Society and consumer ...... 104 7.3.2 Influencing factor 2 – Market and competition ...... 105 7.3.3 Influencing factor 3 – Megatrends ...... 107 7.3.4 Influencing factor 4 – Technology ...... 108 7.4 Step 4: Consistency Assessment ...... 109 8 CONCLUSION, OUTLOOK AND LIMITATIONS ...... 112 8.1 Answers of the research questions ...... 112 8.1.1 Research Question 1 ...... 112 8.1.2 Research Question 2 ...... 114 8.2 Limitations and Areas for further Research ...... 115

Table of Contents VI

9 LIST OF REFERENCES ...... 117

Table of Figures VII

Table of Figures

Figure 1: Overview New Mobility (own illustration) based on (Slowik and Kamakaté 2017) ...... 14 Figure 2: New Urban Mobility redefined (own illustration) ...... 15 Figure 3: Overview MaaS, (UITP 2019, page 2) ...... 16 Figure 4: Generations of wireless network (own illustration) based on (Eze, Sadiku, and Musa 2018) ...... 20 Figure 5: Trend categories, (own illustration) based on (Zukunftsinstitut 2018) ...... 22 Figure 6: Megatrend-Map 4.0, (Zukunftsinstitut 2018) ...... 24 Figure 7: Hype Cycle, (Gartner 2020b) ...... 28 Figure 8: Mobility Innovation Map (StartUs Insights 2020) ...... 29 Figure 9: Modal Split by selected European Cities (Malone 2016) ...... 30 Figure 10: Global market for electrical bicycles (Mehta, Hamke, and Senn 2020) ...... 31 Figure 11: Carsharing Boom: Number of registered carsharing users and vehicles in Germany (Bundesverband CarSharing, 2018) ...... 32 Figure 12: The cost of congestion in cities (European Commission, 2018) ...... 33 Figure 13: Classification of Micro Vehicles (Bauer et al. 2017) ...... 37 Figure 14: Projected share of connected cars in the US, China and EU from 2020 to 2035 ...... 39 Figure 15: The Internet of Everything (Kirig et al. 2018) ...... 43 Figure 16: Growing cities (Zukunftsinstitut 2018) ...... 46 Figure 17: Urbanization of Europe (Horx et al. 2018c) ...... 47 Figure 18: Hype Cycle, Connected Vehicles and Smart Mobility ...... 48 Figure 19: Investments in Mobility, (Holland-Letz et al. 2019) ...... 54 Figure 20: Total number of patents since 2010 (Holland-Letz et al. 2019) ...... 55 Figure 21: Patenting by Incubents vs. New Players, (Reiner and Nienhaus 2017) ...... 56 Figure 22: Patent application for E-Mobility are on the rise, (Brandt 2020) ...... 57 Figure 23: EU GDP from 2009 to 2019 (in trillion euro), Statista 2020 ...... 58 Figure 24: EU GDP based on PPP from 2014 to 2024, Statista 2020 ...... 58 Figure 25: Real GDP from 2009 – 2022 (WKO, STATISTIK AUSTRIA, and WIFO 2020) 59 Figure 26: Average growth rate of GDP in EU from 2013 to 2022, Statista 2020 ...... 60 Figure 27: CPI Austria from 2019 to 2020, (WKO, STATISTIK AUSTRIA, and WIFO 2020) ...... 61 Figure 28: Human Development Index (HDI) Ranking, 2020, (UNDP 2020b) ...... 62 Figure 29: Figure 29: Covid-19 pandemic's shock to human development, (UNDP 2020a) ...... 63 Figure 30: Unemployment rate 1955 – 2022, (WKO, STATISTIK AUSTRIA, and WIFO 2020) ...... 63

Table of Figures VIII

Figure 31: Unemployment rate in the EU and Euro area from 2009 – 2019, (Statista 2020) ...... 64 Figure 32: Infrastructure Investments Europe from 2015 to 2018, (OECD 2021) ...... 65 Figure 33: Infrastructure maintenance spending by European countries, (OECD 2021) .. 66 Figure 34: Share of passenger mileage in EU in 2018, (Statista 2020e) ...... 66 Figure 35: Inland freight mileage in EU in 2018, (Statista 2020e) ...... 67 Figure 36: Passenger car registrations from 2016 to 2020, (OECD 2021) ...... 68 Figure 37: European population between 1950 and 2019, (Worldometer 2021b) ...... 69 Figure 38: Europe Population, Urban vs. Rural from 1955 to 2020, (Worldometer 2021b) ...... 70 Figure 39: Total Fertility Rate, Europe from 1955 to 2020, (Worldometer 2021b) ...... 70 Figure 40: Average life expectancy Europe, (Statista 2020b) ...... 71 Figure 41: Education spending in the EU as a share of the GDP, (Clark 2019) ...... 72 Figure 42: Share of primary students that are digitally equipped in Europe, (Clark 2019) 73 Figure 43: Annual total CO2 Emission, (OWID 2021) ...... 74 Figure 44: The top 10 most innovative Economies worldwide, (Jamrisko, Lu, and Tanzi 2021) ...... 76 Figure 45: New mobility providers valuation, (Holland-Letz et al. 2019) ...... 77 Figure 46: Overview on autonomous vehicle models, (Mehta, Hamke, and Senn 2020) . 79 Figure 47: Measuring Effectiveness in Cyber Security Measures, (ENISA 2015) ...... 83 Figure 48: Increasing number of public chargers, (T&T 2020) ...... 86 Figure 49: Public EV chargers in European countries, (T&T 2020) ...... 87 Figure 50: Forecasted number of EV batteries, (Statista 2020c) ...... 88 Figure 51: Lifecycle of LIB's ...... 89 Figure 52: Micro mobility market potential by 2030, (Heineke et al. 2020) ...... 91 Figure 53: Revenue of MaaS market in Europe, (Statista 2020d) ...... 92 Figure 54: Scenario Funnel, von Reibnitz 1992 ...... 97

List of Tables IX

List of Tables

Table 1: Keyword search - Literature review (own illustration) ...... 11 Table 2: Overview of Databases used for the research (own illustration) ...... 12 Table 3: Independent Monthly Mobility Provider based on (Kaiser 2020) ...... 35 Table 4: Monthly Mobility offered by Car Manufacturer, based on (Kaiser 2020) ...... 36

List of Abbreviations / Glossary X

List of Abbreviations / Glossary

MaaS Mobility as a Service TaaS Technology as a Service AI Artificial Intelligence VR Virtual Reality AR Augmented Reality MR Mixed Reality UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicle PAV Personal Aerial Vehicle AV Autonomous Vehicles D2D Device to device ZEV Zero-emission vehicle V2V Vehicle-to-vehicle communication V2I Vehicle-to-infrastructure SaaS Software as a Service 5G Fifth Generation ZI Zukunftsinstitut PEMD Personal Electric Mobility Devices MMAV Motorized Mobility Aid Vehicle EBV Electric Bike Vehicle LEV Light Electric Vehicle ICT Information and Communication RSE Rear seat entertainment HUD Head up display ACES Automated, Connected, Electric and Shared Vehicle LIB Lithium-ion Battery

Abstract Page 1

Abstract

Not only mobility providers and the automotive industry but also mobility in general has experienced the past years’ enormous shifts and will continue to see many other changes and developments. The entire approach to urban mobility has shifted to a sustainable and user-centric approach.

Urban mobility should have the goal to be integrated as much as possible in the existing infrastructures, into the city and the daily lives of citizens. Seamless mobility is perhaps one of the approaches to mobility that could benefit the users, the environment and also use partly existing infrastructure. Coupled with new and improved technologies, the modularization concept and strategic focus for mobility in Europe by decision-makers, urban mobility can be improved drastically. Not only from a sustainable mobility perspective but also making overpopulated cities more livable and reduce congestion, noise and air pollution as well as the continuous lack of space.

New concepts are necessary for new and redefined urban mobility and a clear strategic focus on a common goal that includes all stakeholders, is required in order to have a clear outlook. Thus, it is vital to have an insight into the future of urban mobility and have an approximate indication of possible scenarios.

Introduction Page 2

1 Introduction

Throughout the years, various “megatrends” and the technological changes as well as the societal change disrupted many industries and changed the way businesses operated and will operate in the future. (Stricker, Matthies, and Tsang 2011)

Mobility is an everchanging industry but the past few years and those to come have seen and will see radical developments in how mobility is “consumed”. The permanent need for flexible and seamless mobility and the changing social structures have pressured not only the automotive industry but also governments and various institutions to rethink mobility, create new business models and provide an optimized mobility experience. (Horx et al. 2018a)

Mobility has not only become a buzzword in the last few years, but it had and has a great impact on politicians, the whole automobile industry and also climate activists who are constantly discussing mobility and are researching how to make mobility more efficient and more climate friendly. (Horx et al. 2018a) Cities and entire nations have to come up with better, more efficient and flexible offers in the future in order to progress towards a better and more effective ecosystem of mobility offers. (Fournier and Donada 2016) Moreover, it is important to keep in mind that also society and its needs are changing, the culture is changing in many different ways and mobility has to adapt to such changes and movements in order to become more efficient and attractive for and to its user. (Horx 2011)

Mobility, as it is known, is changing and it needs to change since the majority of mobility happens in cities and most towns are increasing in inhabitants who need mobility and especially flexible mobility. (Horx et al. 2018a) Thus, most big cities are battling overwhelming traffic jams and the traffic volume is growing exponentially. Also, there are many lost spaces due to ever growing parking lots. (Dowling et al. 2017) Hypermobility, flexibility and even the movement of having sustainable systems are becoming more and more important. New business models and the use of new technologies offer a great potential to create sustainable and seamless mobility options and variations. Mobility providers and decision-makers have to adapt to new requirements, to be more flexible and to lay the focus on the user – make mobility more customer centric. (Stricker, Matthies, and Tsang 2011)

Based on the societal change and generation change, it can be noticed that the needs of the users shift rapidly since flexibility is very much needed in such a hypermobile society. Technological advances are already offering many solutions to this ever-growing problem and the correlation between mobility and urbanization. However, there needs to be created a connected ecosystem in order to be able to provide optimized and connected mobility. (Horx et al. 2018a)

Introduction Page 3

1.1 Background of the thesis

Mobility is experiencing at the moment a mobility revolution and a significant change in how mobility will be consumed. (Stricker, Matthies, and Tsang 2011) Many cities change to no- car rules and create a car-free environment. This means that mobility has to be rethought and made independent from the car. Nevertheless, a carless mobility would be unrealistic, especially in rural areas and on the outskirts of the cities but also in cities with bad infrastructure or poor public transportation. This is why it is essential to take into account many different aspects when planning, developing or even research in the area of mobility and associated issues. Another element that contributes to the background of this research is that mobility is ubiquitous, and it affects almost everyone and interferes with all citizens no matter the age, race, gender or social status, whether they are living in the countryside or if they are in a smaller city or in a megacity. (VCÖ 2008) Moreover, mobility is an everchanging area and it is often bound to the technological advances and infrastructural changes that are being made. Thus, it is an even bigger challenge to make forecasts and predictions based on the state of the art technologies that are currently used since technologies can have an overturning impact on mobility. (Horx et al. 2018a)

Conclusively, it is very difficult to tell where the future leads to and how it will develop over the years as it is very erratic. Therefore, scenarios are created in order to get an insight into how the future could look like based on trend extrapolations, particular predefined parameters and surrounding factors that are necessary. It is important to understand that those scenarios are not a prediction that will happen as they are stated but rather just an indication of how the future in mobility could look like and those scenarios are developed based on certain influencing factors.

1.2 Problem Definition

Mobility is changing all over the world and not only mobility but also the way mobility is perceived and consumed has changed. (Horx et al. 2018a) In Europe, the developments in mobility are rather slow. Still, an uprising in the process of rethinking mobility can be noticed and also a change in demand is clearly visible. (Schnurr and von Saldern 2019) As the world experiences a number of technological changes and improvements and also a societal shift, mobility becomes increasingly important. Cities have constant problems with high traffic volumes, train and public transport delays, high CO2 emissions and noise and space issues due to a growing number of vehicles that subsequently also need at some point a parking space. (VCÖ 2008) Many societies have different demands in how mobility is provided and need more flexibility as well as seamless mobility options. Additionally, the change in how the environment is treated becomes more and more ubiquitous. This phenomenon can be observed in the climate change movement and also the current movement culture of many millennials with Fridays for future. The importance of decarbonization and

Introduction Page 4

the demand for climate neutrality of mobility options are being stated as demands for change. (Horx et al. 2018a) Nevertheless, new technologies and innovations that arise, help to change the way mobility is currently performing. Those new technologies also help to develop new systems and improve approaches how to provide customer-centric and user-friendly mobility. (Proff et al. 2012)

Indeed, there are already a few Mobility as a Service provider (Lyft, Car2go and others) who are implementing and using new business models such as the sharing economy model. (Horx et al. 2018a) Simultaneously, more and more automobile manufacturers and city plan- ners try to implement an increasing amount of technologies and new advances in technology. This includes the Internet of Things, autonomous vehicles, aerial transportation drones, software integration in vehicles, Blockchain technology and many others. (Proff, Pottebaum, and Wolf 2020)

Moreover, mobility will no longer have the main focus on transportation vehicles. The customer and the user become the center of attention and mobility should be integrated into the daily life of its users and be as seamless as possible. (Horx et al. 2018a) Individualiza- tion of the experience when using a vehicle becomes more and more important and also the individualization of the vehicle itself and of the transportation modes becomes more relevant than ever. (Horx et al. 2018b)

Additionally, mobility was and always will be a critical factor in the countryside since public transportation is not developed properly and the citizens there are in particularly very reliant on the car. (Wilde 2014) Especially the elderly and young people without a license or a car are even more affected by having the possibility of using proper public transportation. For these demographic new technologies can be quite beneficial and subsequently new possibilities could arise. Taking into account that especially in the countryside, the women are responsible for being the main driver for the kids and often also for the grandparents or their elderly parents. Conclusively, this means that new technologies and new business models in mobility could have a great impact on the dependence and interdependence women and their children or parents face in rural areas. (Keese and Nohroudi n.d.)

As of the moment, there is a lack of a variety of mobility options in many European cities and this also includes flexible and seamless mobility. As there can be seen a major change within the society as well as technological developments, many new competitors arise almost day by day with new technologies and new approaches to how mobility can be used. Thus, also the expectance of customers and consumers change as well as the target groups shift and vary. (Horx et al. 2018a) Therefore, even the infrastructure within cities has to change and adapt to new requirements and be analyzed how to work effectively with new systems, together in order to reach a new level of mobility. (Horx et al. 2018c) Concluding,

Introduction Page 5

it is additionally necessary to evaluate what new services are needed and also which new service providers are important, such as maintenance and repair. (Stricker, Matthies, and Tsang 2011)

Mobility has many potentials and also many different aspects to be looked at. New business models and technologies are emerging more and more, and they have a big impact on mobility in general. Especially with new business models such as Sharing Economy, Pay per Use, MaaS and many more as well as the digitalization of mobility offerings such as platform economy, intelligent route planning and other mobility experiences a revolution. (Horx et al. 2018a) Thus, these developments and improvements in technologies such as new or alternative drive technologies, 5G, IoT and autonomation will definitely revolutionize mobility and means of transportation within big cities and provide new possibilities. (Kuh- nert, Stürmer, and Koster 2018)

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1.3 Research Gap

Mobility is always advancing and transforming, which is a sign that a lot of effort is put into the development of mobility and technology. However, due to the novelty of many topics in mobility this interferes with research efforts and data is not yet available or is still in the collection process. Especially for new technologies, new mobility concepts or business models, it is very challenging to find contemporary literature based on substantial data. This indicates that further research is necessary on a variety of different topics.

Correspondingly, the central research gap is however, a comprehensive view of many different areas and topics within the mobility sector and its future developments. This in itself is a tremendous challenge, as many aspects of this industry are quite volatile and could change rapidly in the face of crisis or major global changes. Most researches focus solely on certain areas of mobility and provide managerial implications and outlooks only based on those topics, which ultimately disregards many other vital areas.

Furthermore, there is a gap in the extensive research based on a combination of various parameters such as current trends, influencing factors and environmental factors as well as the future requirements or needs in mobility and subsequently having an outlook that considers those aspects within a specific time period.

Nevertheless, it is important to mention that a completely holistic view of mobility is nearly impossible, as this would require experts from many different fields. By the time such research is completed, some information would be already obsolete.

1.4 Goal of Thesis

The goal of the thesis is to give a comprehensive view of the trends, technologies and business models in mobility. The objective is also to give insights into the influencing factors for urban mobility. However, the overall goal of this thesis is to provide an outlook on the future of urban mobility based on a scenario analysis and the formulation of scenarios. First and foremost, the objective is to answer the formulated research questions.

In order to attain the goal of the thesis, two important research questions were formulated, which will be answered throughout the thesis. At the end of the thesis, the research questions will be answered again and summed up.

The research questions:

RQ1: What trends in technology, new mobility concepts as well as society shifts, affect urban mobility?

Introduction Page 7

RQ2: How could urban mobility change in Europe based on a scenario analysis?

The first research question is based on thorough secondary research based on existing literature. This should provide an insight into mobility. Trends, technology as well as new business models in the mobility industry are analyzed and evaluated. Moreover, new services are determined in order to have a more extensive insight.

The second research question will be answered by creating a comprehensive scenario analysis in order to be able to identify how mobility could look like based on given parameters. The results generated by research question number two help to provide a further understanding of the future of mobility and also to be able to show based on trend extrapolation how trends evolve and how they have the ability to influence current solutions.

Furthermore, based on the research, limitations and areas for further research are concluded. Those limitations will be stated in the chapter limitations and outlook. This has the purpose of giving an approximate perspective on what needs to be further investigated and examined.

The general and overall purpose of this research is to show the existing mobility trends and business models and also provide a current status as well as the state of the art of mobility in Europe. The purpose is in another sense to show that new mobility solutions are needed, and decision-makers should provide citizens with more options. These flexible offers which are also affordable and attractive to end-consumers. The purpose of this research is to generate an outlook into the future and analyze various aspects of mobility that include societal issues, regulatory requirements, economic aspects and many others.

1.5 Method

This research should provide insights into the future of mobility and show what trends and new technologies represent state of the art in mobility. Therefore, different methods are used to gain more insights and obtain as much valuable information as possible and generate a relevant and useful outcome of the research questions.

The methodology will be conducted primarily by doing thorough secondary research with available literature and peer reviewed papers. Relevant magazines, eBooks and whitepapers are also included throughout the entire thesis. Furthermore, this thesis also contains a PESTEL analysis which describes the framework of macro-environmental factors. The PESTEL analysis is used to determine the outside trends that are affecting mobility and could have an impact on mobility. Expected services are also determined in this thesis

Introduction Page 8

based on existing literature. However, only a few of those services are included in this thesis as it would go beyond the scope.

For the second part of the thesis, the methodology is based on a scenario analysis which will answer the second research question. The scenario analysis should provide more in- depth information and create a better understanding as well as an insight into mobility and how it could change over the years in Europe. The scenario analysis has the purpose of generating two to three scenarios which should show how the future could look like for mobility in Europe based on trend extrapolations and given parameters. Additionally, various factors and surrounding factors are also examined in order to have a more complete picture of the research.

The theoretical explanation of the scenario analysis is described in-depth in this thesis in order to understand the research better and be more familiar with the method used.

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1.6 Structure of Thesis

In order to comprehend the research to a great extend the thesis is structured in a manner that it should provide the reader with a holistic view on new trends and other developments in mobility and show what the outlook on mobility could be as well as what possible future scenarios there could be. The thesis is subdivided in total by nine chapters and five main chapters, starting with the first chapter “Introduction”. The second chapter of this thesis is the “Literature Review” which focuses on providing additional insights into the literature used in this research. The second chapter includes the subchapter “Definition” that addresses important definitions that are essential to understanding the entire thesis clearly and more extensively.

The third chapter, which is the first main chapter “Important Megatrends Influencing and Developing the Future of Urban Mobility” deals with new trends, technologies and business models that are being evaluated and generated for new mobility. This chapter has the purpose of showing how trends affect mobility and how they can be implemented. The fourth chapter “What External Factors are Affecting Urban Mobility? Important Aspects to Consider for the Future of Urban Mobility?”, deals with the aspects of what environmental changes could have an impact on mobility and what the new aspects that need to be taken into consideration for new mobility are. For this chapter the PESTEL analysis will be applied to gain a structured and comprehensive view. The fifth chapter of this thesis “The Rise of New Services amid the Shift in Mobility”, addresses the issue of what new services could arise due to new mobility offers.

The sixth chapter “Scenario Analysis – Theoretical Framework” has the purpose of de- scribing the scenario analysis, show different aspects of the analysis and also explains how the scenario analysis is conducted. Chapter seven “Scenario Analysis of Future Mobility” examines new mobility based on the scenario analysis. It creates based on trend extrapolation two to three scenarios that can be used for further processing in strategic planning processes.

The eighth chapter “Conclusion and Outlook”, has the focus to summarize the thesis as structured and clearly as possible and answers the two research questions shortly. Moreo- ver, the results of the scenario analysis will be displayed and presented in short.

The last chapter of the thesis is the “List of References”, which provides all the references used to create this research.

The entire research is supported by the theory of the scenario analysis as well as the PESTEL analysis, as part of the theoretical framework. Additionally, also trend management and prospective technological studies are part of the theoretical fundament of the research.

Introduction Page 10

However, the main focus of the thesis is the scenario analysis which shows based on scenarios’ possible outcomes and developments in the mobility industry.

Literature Review Page 11

2 Literature Review

The literature review has been carried out between the months of October 2019 up to March 2020. The literature review should represent the groundwork for the entire research, especially for the first research question, which is wholly based on the literature review. In order to generate valuable results, it is important to have relevant and current literature.

Table 1 illustrates the keywords and key terms that were used to research and identify essential peer-reviewed papers, whitepapers, studies, books and podcasts, and interviews. This step was necessary in order to keep the focus on answering the research questions and not lose the focal point and the objectives that were set at the beginning of this research.

The keywords were also used in the German language in order to find additional literature and have relevant studies from the DACH region since this thesis has the focus on Europe. Additionally, the keywords were also combined in the process with other “small” keywords that are not stated in the table.

Keywords Classification

Business Models Scientific research field Trend Management Scenario Analysis Scenario Method Trend extrapolation theory Automotive Trends Key terms Scenario Analysis in Mobility Megatrends Automotive Industry Business Models New Mobility Future Mobility New Urban Mobility Smart Cities Future Cities Sharing economy Shared mobility Urbanization

Table 1: Keyword search - Literature review (own illustration)

Literature Review Page 12

The second table shows which databases and online libraries were used to find and source relevant literature. This table represents the most commonly used databases and journals for this specific thesis.

Database Google Scholar EBSCO Emerald Insight Research Gate Springer Link ScienceDirect & Elsevier DBIS – Datenbank Infosystem OBV – Österreichische Bibliothekenverbund Harvard Business Review The Quintessence

Table 2: Overview of Databases used for the research (own illustration)

Literature Review Page 13

2.1 Definitions

This subchapter provides an overview of all the terms included throughout the thesis that are considered important. The definitions explained in this chapter should help to understand the thesis as a whole and its content better. Certain definitions are stated within their own chapters, which again helps with the fluidity of the thesis and helps the reader to understand this research better. The definitions are subdivided into three different categories. New Business Models, Technology and Trends.

2.1.1 New Business Models

This category contains the definitions and explanations of some of the new business models in mobility. In this chapter, a few new business models will be evaluated more specifically and more in detail in the fifth chapter of this research.

• New (Urban) Mobility

New Mobility or, in the case of this thesis, New Urban Mobility can be described as the “new age” of mobility. New emerging technologies are often brought in connection with new mobility and its developments. Many sources define new urban mobility differently and according to the purpose of their research. That is why the author compared two definitions from two different studies with different purposes in order to generate a definition fitting this research.

According to (Skinner et al. 2017), at the center of new mobility, there is the element “business model”, which is the fundament for revenue generation and will play a key role in influencing the other components of new mobility which are, automated driving, connected vehicles transport systems, and networks, electric vehicles and shared use. New mobility is a combination of those five factors with other sub-factors that are dependent on many other correlating factors.

Based on (Slowik and Kamakaté 2017) definition of new mobility there are two main components of new mobility. The two categories are new technologies and new business models and social trends. Both categories are represented by key concepts and terms. The category “new technologies” has as key terms zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), vehicle-to- vehicle communication (V2V), vehicle-to-infrastructure communication (V2I), semi-autonomous, and fully autonomous. The category “new business models and social trends” has as key terms shared-use mobility and ride-sourcing / e-hailing. E-hailing or ride-hailing is defined according to (Cambridge Dictionary 2020) as “used for or involved in the activity of asking for a car and driver to come immediately and take you somewhere.”

Literature Review Page 14

Examples for companies who provide new mobility services and technologies are, amongst others, Uber, Lyft, Zimride, Connected Ann Arbor, car2go, DriveNow. (Slowik and Kama- katé 2017)

Figure 1: Overview New Mobility (own illustration) based on (Slowik and Kamakaté 2017)

o Ride-sourcing / e-hailing

The terms “ride-sourcing” and “e-hailing” are fairly new and not yet established in the literature. Based on (Jin et al. 2017), ride-sourcing is a certain form of shared mobility where it enables the sharing of passenger rides. Ride-sourcing or ridesharing allows passengers with similar or the same origin and destination to share the ride. This form of ride-sourcing is supported by mobile technology and mobile apps in order to request and dispatch ridesharing vehicles upon the passengers’ request. Among the most known providers are “Uber” with “UberPool” and “Lyft” with “Lyft Line”.

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E-hailing is simply a taxi service that is equipped with a mobile app. The difference between e-hailing and ride-sourcing is that the transportation vehicles are taxicabs, whereas ride- sourcing uses privately owned vehicles.

New Urban Mobility redefined Based on the definitions of Skinner et al. 2017 and Slowik and Kamakaté 2017, the author of this research created an own definition and illustration that fits best this thesis and its content. This illustration of “New Urban Mobility” is the basis for further analysis within this research, and it provides an overview of the “New Urban Mobility” sphere.

Figure 2: New Urban Mobility redefined (own illustration)

• Multimodal Mobility and Intermodal Mobility

“Multimodal mobility” is a form of transportation where different transport modes are chosen on different routes, whereas “intermodal mobility” is defined as the use of different transportation methods on one route. It can be said that multimodal mobility is characterized by a combination of different transportation methods and flexible usage according to the available means of transportation and the situation. Intermodal transportation is very similar to multimodal traveling, which has the addition of a flexible combination of modes of transportation on one single route. An essential requirement for both forms of mobility is that the

Literature Review Page 16

travelers are able to choose between different forms of transportation. This means that users are provided with at least adequate bike lanes and public transport options which are preferably complemented by shared mobility options and services. (Jonuschat, Stephan, and Schelewsky 2015)

• MaaS – Mobility as a Service

Mobility as a Service (MaaS) can be described as a new business model in mobility, which is the access to, and the integration of, different transportation services which include, for example, public transportation, car-sharing, ride-sharing, bike-sharing, taxi, ride-hailing, scooter-sharing and car-rental, in one general digital mobility offer which includes an efficient public transportation system and active mobility as its basis. This mobility form provides its users tailor-made and individual services and meets each end-user’s individual needs for their travel and everyday commute. Mobility as a Service is available anytime and offers their customers integrated planning options, booking and payment, and also en route information in order to provide easy and seamless mobility as well as enable a life without the need to own a car. (UITP 2019)

Figure 3 shows an overview of the different Mobility as a Service, services and options. This illustration shows an outline based on four parameters. On the y-axis, the parameters are public access and private access. On the x-axis, the parameters are the collective use and the individual use. These parameters aid in creating a structured approach to the services provided and included in the sphere of MaaS.

Figure 3: Overview MaaS, (UITP 2019, page 2)

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Multimodal Mobility and Intermodal Mobility are very similar concepts to Mobility as a Ser- vice. The only factor that is “missing” is the single point of access on a digital device. How- ever, it is important to distinguish these terms since they are inherently different.

• SaaS – Software as a Service

“In the software as a service model, the application, or service, is deployed from a central- ized data center across a network - Internet, Intranet, LAN, or VPN - providing access and use on a recurring fee basis. Users "rent," "subscribe to," “are assigned”, or "are granted access to" the applications from a central provider. Business models vary according to the level to which the software is streamlined, to lower price and increase efficiency, or value- added through customization to further improve digitized business processes.” (Hoch, Kerr, and Griffith 2001, page 117)

A different study researched on the term SaaS found out according to them that there are five distinct characteristics typically associated with Software as a Service: (Mäkilä et al. 2010)

1. The product/service is used via a web browser 2. The product/service is usually not individualized to the client. 3. The product/service does not encompass software that has to be installed at the client’s location 4. The product/service does not need special integration or installation work. 5. The pricing of the product/service is based on effective usage of the software.

• Monthly Mobility

Monthly Mobility is a term that is not established at the moment and is often defined as a subscription-based mobility model or vehicle subscription model. The mobility landscape is evolving more and more, and the automotive ecosystem is growing rapidly and also changing. As it can be seen in many different industries, subscription models become very popular, especially for the new generation it is en vogue. Vehicle subscription represents a developing business model that is designed to be an alternative to leasing models. The subscription model allows its customer to pay a monthly “all-in” fee including insurance, vehicle access, maintenance and servicing. The only incremental expense the consumer has is the gas expenses. (RedChalk Group 2020)

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2.1.2 Technology

The category “Technology” contains definitions for some of the new technologies or technological systems in the field of mobility.

• Autonomous vehicles (AV’s)

Autonomous vehicle (AV) technology provides the chance of fundamentally changing how transportation is done and perceived. Implementing this technology into cars and light vehicles, it benefits and enforces the reduction of crashes, pollution, energy consumption and especially the reduction of the costs, congestion causes. (M. Anderson et al. 2016)

At the moment, there are four to six “levels” of autonomy. Depending on different sources, the number of levels is different. (OECD and ITF 2015)

- Level 0: No automation

Level 0 is the no automation level, where the full-time performance is done by the human driver. The dynamic driving tasks, warning enhancement or the intervention systems do not count as a form of automation.

- Level 1: Driver assistance

Level 1 means that “the driving mode-specific execution by one or more driver assistance systems of both steering and acceleration/deceleration using information about the driving environment and with the expectation that the human driver performs all remaining aspects of the dynamic driving task.” (OECD and ITF 2015, page 12)

- Level 2: Partial automation

Level 2 autonomy which is partial automation means that the vehicle system executes a driving mode-specific with the aid of one or more forms of driver assistance systems of both acceleration/deceleration and steering by making use of information about the driving environment. With the expectation for the human driver to perform the remaining aspects of all other dynamic driving tasks.

- Level 3: Conditional automation

Level 3 is the conditional automation that enables a driving mode-specific performance with the help of an automated driving system that covers all aspects of the tasks of dynamic driving. The only expectation is that the human driver responds appropriately when re- quested to intervene in a certain situation.

- Level 4: High automation

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Level 4 of autonomy which is high automation means that the driving mode-specific performance is controlled and performed with the help of an automated driving system that covers all features of the dynamic driving task. This applies even if the human driver does not answer in an appropriate way to an intervention request.

- Level 5: Full automation

Level 5 the full automation autonomy is “the full-time performance by an automated driving system of all aspects of the dynamic driving task under all roadway and environmental conditions that can be managed by a human driver.” (OECD and ITF 2015, page 12)

• Urban Air Mobility (UAM)

Urban air mobility is a concept that was initially defined by NASA in their Urban Air Mobility Airspace Integration Concepts and Considerations research as "safe and efficient air traffic operations in a metropolitan area for manned aircraft and unmanned aircraft systems”. (P. Thipphavong et al. 2018) Urban air mobility has gained and continues to get a lot of attention from research institutes, enterprises and governments as the concept grows and develops. Urban air mobility is expected to revolutionize mobility and existing transportation modes. The global urban air mobility addressable market is expected to reach US$1.5 trillion by the year 2040. (Xu 2020)

Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) “Drones or Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAV – Unmanned Aerial Vehicle or UAS – Un- manned Aerial Systems) are the aircraft, which are able to fly without a pilot and passengers on board. Drone Controlling is performed remotely by radio waves or autonomously (with a predetermined route). Drones do not have a specific size or type of drive. They are often equipped with accessories used for surveillance and monitoring, in the form of optoelec- tronic heads. The most important feature of drones is that they do not need any additional infrastructure to quickly register and monitor a designated area or object. A significant advantage is the extremely short reaction time when it comes to commissioning and preparing the unit for a flight.” (Kardasz et al. 2016, page 1)

(Autonomous) Unmanned Passenger Drones Passenger drones are compared to Unmanned Aerial Vehicle simply for the transportation of passengers. As the name suggests, it can be said it is a type of personal air vehicle. The passenger drone is often known as a drone taxi or personal air vehicle (PAV). (Baur et al. 2018)

There are already quite a few established companies and providers in the field of passenger drones. The most recognized and best-known companies of manned passenger drones are

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EHang, Boeing/AFS Passenger Air Vehicle, Kittyhawk Flyer/ Kittyhawk Cora, Volocopter 2X, Uber Elevate and City Airbus.

• Fifth Generation (5G) Technology

“5G stands for fifth-generation wireless technology. It is the latest iteration of cellular technology that has three main features: greater speed, lower latency, and the ability to connect a lot more devices simultaneously. A commercial 5G wireless network is expected to be deployed by 2020.” (Eze, Sadiku, and Musa 2018)

The generations from 1G to 5G showed drastic changes in communications technology. Significantly, the third generation (3G) wireless systems proved to be a breakthrough in communications and introduced commercial high-speed internet access. The developments of the third generation were primarily driven by the demand for data services via the internet. (Eze, Sadiku, and Musa 2018)

Figure 4: Generations of wireless network (own illustration) based on (Eze, Sadiku, and Musa 2018)

The advanced features of 5G technology are:

- Device-centric, cloud-based, programmable and distributed architecture - High data rates - Low battery consumption - Improved connectivity independently of the location - Increased amount of supported devices - Decreased costs of infrastructure development

Potential Applications of 5G technology could be:

- Virtual Reality (VR), augmented reality (AR) - Autonomous driving - Connected cars

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- Blockchain - Smart grid - Mobile security - Wireless, cloud-based office - 3D and ultra HD videos

The 5G technology will revolutionize many different industries and it incorporates many different types of advanced features, which will create huge demand in the near future. (Eze, Sadiku, and Musa 2018)

• Hyperloop

The Hyperloop is a fairly new concept for extremely high-speed, intercity transportation with a fixed guideway by using capsule-like vehicles that run in sealed (fragmentary-vacuum) tubes. At this stage, the technology is still developing and in different testing-phase. How- ever, it has already elicited a lot of interests from different parties such as journalists, engineering firms, investors, governments and others. Conclusively, it is a new form of transportation that has the objective of changing the paradigm of being fast and inexpensive for both people and goods. The Hyperloop concept is in itself unique as it is an open design concept. (L. Taylor, J. Hyde, and C. Barr 2016)

2.1.3 Trends

The “Trends” category includes the definition of the term’s megatrend and trend. This is important in order to understand the difference between both idioms. Megatrends and trends are described in more detail within the third chapter of this research. Therefore, this definition is limited to the basics.

• Megatrend & Trend

Megatrends are the fundament of the evolution of entire business sectors and thus become the starting point for many strategies and strategic decisions. In order to clearly understand what a megatrend is, there are four criteria that help to understand better and clearly define a megatrend. The first criteria, “Duration”, means that a megatrend usually has a lifespan of a couple of decades and a minimum of 50 years, the second criteria, “Ubiquity” means that the megatrend shows consequences in many different areas such as economy, social sphere, political systems, et cetera. Globality is the third criterion which signifies that megatrends are a global phenomenon even if they are not pronounced everywhere the same or in the same manner. However, they can be noticed sooner or later everywhere in the world. The last criteria, “Complexity” means that megatrends are multilayered and multidimensional trends.

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However, trends or “sub-trends” slightly differ from megatrends since they are less complex, and the duration of a trend is shorter than the average duration of 50 years. (Horx et al. 2018a) The figure shows the different trend categories and the disparate shifts in velocity.

Figure 5: Trend categories, (own illustration) based on (Zukunftsinstitut 2018)

Trend categories can be subdivided into megatrends, socio-cultural trends, technology trends, consumer trends, zeitgeist and fashion trends and microtrends. For the purpose of this research, there will be a focus solely on megatrends/ sub-trends, technology trends and partly socio-cultural trends. The speed on how the trends change varies based on the different levels, as shown in figure 5. The level nature and also the civilization level change rather slow and the cycles are very long. The technological cycle is shorter compare to the previous two levels. Since the industrial revolution, new basic technologies are developing every 50 years (plus/minus 15 years) which addresses new accrued “shortages” and boosts productivity. The last big wave was triggered by information technology and computer a century before that it was the railroad that created a wave of prosperity. (Horx et al. 2018a)

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3 Important Megatrends influencing and developing the Future of Urban Mobility

Trends and so-called “megatrends” influence many different areas of businesses and societies, but they also influence mobility and its future paths. Therefore, it is necessary to include trend management in this research in order to gain insights into the current trends and megatrends of mobility and the areas influencing mobility. This chapter has the objective to show what the difference between megatrends and sub-trends is and also why trends should be pursued further. Additionally, this chapter aims to deliver the different trends (megatrends, technology trends, and socio-cultural trends) influencing urban mobility in Eu- rope. This should help to understand current trends and trends that will impact mobility and societies over the next few years.

3.1 What are Trends and what is classified as a Trend

Accordingly, it can be said that in the first place, it is necessary to define and distinguish the difference between megatrends and trend/ sub-trends are as well as conclude their influence and their outreach on certain businesses or industry sectors.

Why are megatrends and trends important to be monitored? The matter of megatrends is quite often underrated or undervalued due to the omnipresence of the notion of “trend” in the media and similar outlets, which creates an illusion that the whole term and everything around is a faux. (Pitschke 2012) However, trends are quite important in order to be able to determine a possible future of numerous different sectors, fields and businesses. Thus, it is necessary to determine in the first place what trends and megatrends are classified as and subsequently support those trends with substantial data. (Horx et al. 2018a)

This thesis has a focus on certain megatrends and the sub-trend categories, technology trends and socio-cultural trends. Furthermore, it is important to distinguish between megatrends and the associated trends or sub-trends to gain a better understanding. The main reference for the megatrends and sub-trends is the institution “Zukunftsinstitut”, since their expertise is primarily futurology and megatrends/ trends and their research are quite thorough, which provides higher accuracy for the trends and the outcome of this research. The latest “megatrend map 4.0” is taken as the primary reference for this chapter as it fits best this thesis. The megatrend map 4.0 is attached additionally to this thesis and can be seen in figure 6.

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Figure 6: Megatrend-Map 4.0, (Zukunftsinstitut 2018)

Only megatrends and trends that were deemed necessary for the thesis and the topic of mobility were chosen from this map. However, not only the megatrends and sub-trends from the “ZI” have been included in this thesis, but also other important pieces of literature con- taining essential megatrends or sub-trends were considered for this research.

3.1.1 Megatrends

Megatrends need to have a half-life period of at least 50 years. Additionally, such a megatrend also has to play a key role in all spheres of life and have to show consequences. Inherently, megatrends generally have a quite global nature even if they are differently pronounced and not everywhere noticeable. Also, the complexity of megatrends is multilayered and multidimensional. Megatrends often lay the foundation for many research and

Important Megatrends influencing and developing the Future of Urban Mobility Page 25 development projects and are considered essential for further strategic decisions and tasks. They are the groundwork for the evolution of entire economic sectors. Therefore, they are also many times the starting point for comprehensive strategies. Megatrends enable decision-takers to make the complex, worldwide changes in the economy and society tangible. (Zukunftsinstitut 2018)

3.1.2 Trends / Sub-Trends

Trends or also called “sub-trends”, can be differed from megatrends by the simple fact that their lifespan is considerably shorter than those of megatrends. Sub-trends are often only viable in one area of life or of the world and do not have an influence on all spheres of life. Additionally, the trends are not necessarily a global phenomenon, nor do they have the complexity a megatrend has. Nevertheless, trends and sub-trends play an essential role as they have a shorter life, which can be up to five years. This makes them necessary as research and development can be done within a reasonable time, and they are also strategically quite important. (Zukunftsinstitut 2018) Supplementary, this trend category also includes so-called “retro-trends”, which will not be discussed or further analyzed in this research due to its irrelevancy to this research field.

In the interest of simplification, in addition to megatrends and their sub-trends, the sub-trend category is focused on technology trends and socio-cultural trends. The other types (consumer trends, zeitgeist trends, micro-trends, and evolution) are seen as irrelevant for this research and therefore not included in it.

3.2 Trend or Must-do?

Very often, the question arises whether a trend is just a fast-selling trend or a must-do trend that will have a significant impact, in a positive way but also possibly in a negative form. Therefore, it is crucial to evaluate what possible impact the trends influencing a certain industry can have. (Rekettye and Rekettye Jr. 2013)

Moreover, it is necessary to keep in mind not to follow any trends arising without having a clear understanding of the market, demographic status-quo, changes in society, and also technological changes. It has to be mentioned that there is no blueprint on how to approach trends within a business setting or for a particular type of industry, as trends tend to be quite volatile and very interdependent on a myriad of factors. (Nibbe et al. 2020) However, it can also be stated that there are a few factors that can be considered when deciding on which path to follow.

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The importance of trends.

To be able to distinguish if a trend is worthy of considering in the future strategy or in the product/ service development or not, it has to be put in different scenarios. Afterward, it has to be evaluated whether it creates a value for the company, the customers or users or in general if it satisfies the purpose and the objectives of an individual strategy. The importance of trends can be determined and evaluated statistically. (von Rosing et al. 2015)

However, a statistic evaluation would go beyond the scope of this thesis. Thus, other factors are used to determine the importance of trends. There are a few questions that can be asked to evaluate whether a trend has substantial value for further research or if it is just a fast-going trend:

§ Is the trend substantially new? § Is/was the trend medium to long-term relevant? § Was it only a short-term hype?

Trends can also be supported by various studies, market and industry data, statistics, and representative surveys to guarantee their importance. (Zukunftsinstitut 2018)

Maturity of the subject

A trend’s maturity can provide essential information about its credibility and clearly about its manifestation in certain areas and industries. The maturity of a trend also shows in most cases that it is already established within sectors, societies and they are also influencing technology. The adoption and consideration of trends are directly connected to its maturity. (Artuso and Guijt 2020)

Very often, when trends emerge, their maturity is relatively low. This is the point where “early-adopter” investors leverage this opportunity to develop unique and leading solutions. This type of practice from leaders is being called “leading practices”. Leading practices often define and strengthen innovation, competitive advantage, and efficiency by differentiating competencies with the focus on the value model and revenue model. They are often called “out-performer” as they are the earliest to benefit from the latest emerging trends and thus outperform the market. Industry leaders develop, adopt and invest in industry practices in order to out-compete the other participants when a trend becomes more mature but is still in its hype stages. This is labeled “industry adoption. Such industry practice helps to improve not only competitive parity but also standardize central competitive competencies, focusing on service and performance models. The reason they are called industry leaders is that they outperform most of their competitors in the particular markets by having the benefits of emerging trends. Eventually, with broad adoption, including years of experience, the trend matures, and it has become a best practice or even a standard. The adoption turns into a best practice or standard when enterprises start to standardize and improve

Important Megatrends influencing and developing the Future of Urban Mobility Page 27 non-core competencies with a focus on the operating model and cost model. These types of enterprises are seen as followers who leverage from best practices that are considered non-core to their business but at the same time benefit from trends with low costs and risk. (von Rosing et al. 2015)

Emerging trends

Emerging trends are being illustrated in many different ways, often as hype cycles, mind- map footprints, product lifecycles and usage curves, radar systems and also underground station lines by many different research and consulting organizations such as Forrester, Gartner, Boston Consulting Group, Frost & Sullivan. However, all of them have in common that they try to put the focus on one specific view, which misleads the reader. (von Rosing et al. 2015) Thus, it is necessary to review different sources in order to have a clear picture of emerging trends. The most cited and most popular illustration of emerging trends is the Gartner hype cycle, which is published annually.

The Gartner hype cycle’s basic structure begins with a so-called “technology or innovation trigger”, which is at the very origin of time. This is the point where a potential breakthrough in technology kicks off. Often there is no usable product but early proof-of-concepts trigger media interest and publicity even if commercial viability is still unproven. The technology/innovation trigger rises quickly to the “peak of inflated expectations” which is driven by some- what unrealistic claims by various proponents. (von Rosing et al. 2015)

However, early publicity often creates success stories, which are often partnered by scores of failures. The overemphasized peak of the hype is unavoidable, followed by a decline in popularity, which is called a “trough of disillusionment”. Many of the stated ideas simply just vanish or expire as implementations and experiments fail to deliver. Still, the rather realistic expectations and ideas they develop over time as early adopters start to experience quan- tifiable benefits. This serves as a push up the so-called “slope of enlightenment”. In this stage it becomes more visible how certain technologies could benefit organizations and they become more understood. More experimentation takes place and more second- and third-generation versions of the technology appear. This gradual progress then “ends” in the “plateau of productivity” which is the stage where mainstream adoption begins to take off. The technology’s broad market relevance and applicability are visibly paying off. (Gartner 2020b)

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Figure 7: Hype Cycle, (Gartner 2020b)

The Gartner hype cycle helps to understand which technologies are on the rise and which are already used by early adopters. This also helps to separate hypes and real technology trends. (Gartner 2020b)

3.3 Trends in Urban Mobility

Many different megatrends and sub-trends are affecting and influencing urban mobility. The megatrends and sub-trends in this thesis are based on the research done by various futurology institutions such as the “Zukunftsinstitut” and the “Gartner Hypecycle” for technological trends and numerous different peer-reviewed research and white paper. This sub-chapter provides valuable insights into current trends and future outlooks of urban mobility and influencing factors.

The most important and common trends have been considered and carefully selected for this research. There are many other trends in the area of new urban mobility but were not included due to the fact that their relevancy was too low or not developed enough. This subchapter is split into three parts. The first part focuses on megatrends for urban mobility. The second part focuses on technology trends and the last part has the focus on socio- cultural trends influencing not only urban mobility but also society and culture.

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Figure 8 shows a consolidation map by StartUS Insights of the identified emerging technologies and trends which are based on the analysis of more than 8,000 startups in the mobility industry. This again supports the statements that the mobility industry and that trends are more and more evolving. (StartUs Insights 2020)

Figure 8: Mobility Innovation Map (StartUs Insights 2020)

3.3.1 Megatrends – Urban Mobility This subchapter has the focus on the megatrends influencing new urban mobility in Euro- pean cities. Those megatrends have gained over the years a lot of importance. They will become even more important as the infrastructure develops and smart elements are included in the planning and development of cities and their infrastructures.

• Bike-Boom

Due to the fact that the percentage of Europeans living in cities increases constantly, cities become more congested than ever, the air quality is poor, and noise levels are also increasing. Generally, cities become less livable. By promoting cycling in cities, it can have a positive effect on having more livable and sustainable cities but also the personal health of its citizens can benefit. Many role model cities in Europe have a vital cycling culture which provides them with competitive advantages over other European cities in appealing to tour- ists, new businesses and attracting key workers. (Horx et al. 2018c) The Netherlands shows clear trends in cycling and already has a sustainable and integrated cycling system. The percentages of trips that were made by bicycle in the Netherlands are increasing continually. The advance in electric bicycles also sustainably promoted and has resulted in longer

Important Megatrends influencing and developing the Future of Urban Mobility Page 30 and more trips with the e-bike. Figure 9 shows that there are apparent differences between the different cities in Europe and also between cities in one country. Amsterdam and Co- penhagen are seen as role models of world-leading towns for cycling. Figure 9 also shows the modal split (cycling, walking, driving and public transport) by selected European cities. (Malone 2016)

Figure 9: Modal Split by selected European Cities (Malone 2016)

E-Bikes play a very important role in the bike boom megatrend as these electric bicycles support the cyclist with an included battery and an engine that results in longer rides and more trips being made. On average, the maximum range cyclists have, are around 7.5 kilometers, with e-bikes this range doubles. For the elderly, e-bikes are often a way to stay mobile, and for many, an alternative for the car. (Malone 2016) Moreover, bicycles are used for various freight transport in cities such as food deliveries for example “Lieferservice.at” or “Mjam” in Austria or “UberEats” or IKEA furniture transportation bikes in the Netherlands and other forms of freight transportation.

Cycling not only has health benefits for its users but it also makes cities more livable and pleasant to live in, more emission-reducing and provides more mobility and space and cycling is additionally a more affordable means of transportation than a car. However, it is also necessary to introduce cycling safety and providing safe infrastructure for cyclists. (Horx et al. 2018c)

However, it is quite clear that the bicycle boom is just in its beginning phase and will continue to grow according to various statistics and forecasts. The following figure shows that the global market for electric bikes is rising and will increase in demand.

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Figure 10: Global market for electrical bicycles (Mehta, Hamke, and Senn 2020)

• Carsharing

The megatrend “sharing economy”, or in this specific case “car-sharing” has gained the past few years a lot of importance and continues to grow significantly. The digital revolution has not only enabled the development but also the deployment of car-sharing services over the years, all over the world. Access instead of possession. This is the new slogan for urban mobility. According to various studies and research companies, individual mobility will have the focus on the access principle. Users will buy access to their mobility services and products instead of owning them. This calls for new business models and business model innovations. (Horx et al. 2018a) Ride-sharing service providers such as Uber, Lyft and car sharing providers like DriveNow and Car2Go, disrupt at the moment the current ownership model, which ultimately leaves cars unquestionably under-utilized. Governments all over the world are now promoting more than ever such companies and invest in these types of business models in order to not only combat and reduce congestion-related pollution but also to tackle the issue of the need for additional road infrastructure. (Mehta, Hamke, and Senn 2020) The concept of car-sharing is not only booming because it is an easy alternative to the car but because people do not want to own necessarily a vehicle in order to use one. This creates the possibility of higher flexibility and lower mobility costs. This sharing principle is not only limited to citizens and private users but also it becomes a very attractive option for corporations to provide their employee’s corporate carsharing possibilities. For example, “Carployee” a startup from Linz, Upper Austria, addresses this target group and tackles the issue of corporate carsharing.

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Figure 11 shows clearly that carsharing becomes increasingly important and gains significantly. Not only are the registered carsharing users increasing in numbers but also carsharing vehicles are becoming more.

Figure 11: Carsharing Boom: Number of registered carsharing users and vehicles in Germany (Bun- desverband CarSharing, 2018)

Car-sharing can be distinguished by a few different models which are interpreted in literature very often differently from one another. The ways of sharing are ride-sharing (Uber), long-distance ride-sharing services (BlaBlaCar), round-trip car-sharing (Zipcar) and point- to-point car-sharing (Car2go). (Zukunftsinstitut 2018) Additionally, car-sharing helps to reduce congestion in big cities and reduce related air pollution if implemented in a sustainable form and that users as well as vehicle owners are encouraged and provided with the necessary means with a network-based approach. More- over, the rising awareness for environmental sustainability as well as the concern to prevent environmental damage and ecological devastation promote this thinking and the sharing economy further. Additionally, as cities grow in population it becomes essential to have the possibilities to share vehicles since the spaces are more condensed than ever and parking becomes a big cost factors citizen have to bear. (Klein, Bansal, and Wohlers 2017)

Figure 12 shows the annual financial effects congestions have in cities. This can be improved by using the concept of carsharing and corporate carsharing. (Zukunftsinstitut 2018)

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Figure 12: The cost of congestion in cities (European Commission, 2018)

• Monthly Mobility – Subscription-based model

Monthly mobility rises in popularity, especially for the younger generation. However, this mobility concept is not really new. The predecessors of the monthly mobility concept are leasing models and the standard buying models. However, the idea of monthly mobility had at first the focus on e-bikes. Still, with the rise in popularity of subscription models, many vehicle providers and vehicle manufacturers started to provide subscription-based models. (RedChalk Group 2020)

Monthly mobility is often also called a vehicle subscription-based model. The offers differ quite a lot from one another. The monthly mobility model definitely closes the gap between buying and renting vehicles. This type of mobility allows for high flexibility for the user and additionally, the user receives an all-inclusive service, especially for a short-time period. A lot of “monthly mobility providers” are focusing on the customer who changes their vehicles a lot. Some focus on luxury vehicles, which enables, contrary to leasing models, their customers to drive a car they would normally not be able to afford. Some of the providers only focus on electric vehicles. In order to be able to have a deeper understanding of subscription-model providers, the next table provides a compilation of ten of the most important and current subscription providers. The table is composed of the provider, the minimum term of subscription time, provided brands, costs, prerequisites and the starting fee. (Kaiser 2020)

Provider Minimum term Brand Costs Prerequi- Starting sites fee/ De- posit Faaren Flexible option. From minivan to Starting Minimum age None Between one cabriolet and a 249€/ month of 18 years,

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month and one great variety of for certain year different brands brands the minimum age is higher Nextmove Optionally 3, 6, Almost all in se- Starting Minimum age No starting 12 or 12+ ries produced 329€/ month of 24 years if fee but de- months electric vehicles below the posit in the minimum age amount of then a 50€ the deducti- fee is added ble Sixt Minimum of 30 Large selection Starting Minimum age 199 € days from the existing 349€/ month of 18 years sixt portfolio Cluno 6 months Large selection Starting Minimum age 299 € including BMW, 229€/ month of 23 years Opelm Skoda, and a Euro- Kia, Fiat, Toyota pean Union driving license Allinone- 90 days Currently Audi, Starting Minimum age 99 € cars Volkswagen, 289€/ month varies based Ford, Mazda, Cu- on the model pra, Fiat, Renault, the customer Seat, are availa- chooses, be- ble tween 18 and 21 years. Also, a credit assessment is required Finn.Auto 6 months Opel, Hyundai, Starting Between 23 99 € and Jaguar and 282€/ month and 75 years deposit Range Rover Carminga 6 months Currently Fiat, Changing Minimum age None BMW, VW, Mer- deals each 21 years cedes, Opel, Seat week. The and Audi are average is available around 240€/ month

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Like2drive Varies based on Citroen, Cupra, Starting Minimum age None the model and Opel, Fiat, 199€/ month 21 years, the brand Peugot, Ford, Re- positive nault, Tesla, credit as- Seat, Skoda sessment, German bank details ADAC 28 days Nissan Leaf and Starting ADAC- None VW Golf 291€/ month Membership Carships 6 months VW, BMW, MINI Starting Credit as- None Cooper 399€/ month sessment, age limit varies

Table 3: Independent Monthly Mobility Provider based on (Kaiser 2020)

Additional to the monthly price the only extra costs the customers have are for fuel or elec- tricity. Everything else is included in the monthly fee. The provider Sixt definitely trumps with the broad portfolio they offer and the comparatively short minimum term of 30 days. (Kaiser 2020)

Additionally, car manufacturers also provide monthly mobility services to their customers. However, compared to other independent providers, monthly mobility offered by car manufacturers are more expensive and less selection is available. Table 4 provides a summary of important car manufacturers that offer monthly mobility. (Kaiser 2020)

Provider Minimum term Costs Prerequisites Starting fee/ Deposit BMW Rent 30 days Starting Minimum age 18 None. Deposit 825€/ month years between 300€ and 1,500€ VW Abo-a- 3 months Starting The minimum age None. Deposit is car 652€/ month of 19 or 21 years based on the depending on the model up to subscription. Pos- 1,000€ session of a driver’s license for at least one year MINI 6 months Starting Minimum age 21 None 389€/ month years

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Care by None. However, af- Starting Minimum age 18 None Volvo ter the termination 499€/ month years of the 30-day trial subscription, a no- tice period of 3 months applies Mercedes 12 or 24 months Starting Not specified 400 € me Flexpe- 699€/ month rience

Table 4: Monthly Mobility offered by Car Manufacturer, based on (Kaiser 2020)

However, the subscription model can be designed in many different ways, but those options are depending on the different providers. (RedChalk Group 2020)

- Model 1: Car Subscription - Model 2: Fixed flat rate and flexible selection - Model 3: Flexible driving, pay per use

The individual models are not described in detail in this thesis as it would go beyond the scope.

• Micro Mobility

Micro Mobility has become an essential factor of mobility and mobility offers. However, micro mobility is very often not really specified or defined in the literature. In general, micro- vehicles can be divided into four superordinate classes. On the one hand, these are Per- sonal Electric Mobility Devices (PEMD), which include hoverboards, e-scooters, e-skate- boards and Segways. A further distinction is made between Motorized Mobility Aid Vehi- cles (MMAV) and electric power (two) wheels, which are fully electric or powered by an auxiliary motor. These are called Electric Bike Vehicles (EBV). The fourth class is represented by the Light Electric Vehicle (LEV). Figure 13 shows the classification of micro vehicles schematically. (Bauer et al. 2017)

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Figure 13: Classification of Micro Vehicles (Bauer et al. 2017)

However, almost every time when talking about micro mobility, specific criteria are applied. The weight of the vehicle (is for example less than 500 kilograms), capacity of passenger or payload, powertrain (electric-powered or human) and the maximum speed range. Prac- tically, micro mobility mostly means shared e-scooter and bikes or e-bikes. Especially, electric scooters have seen a spike in popularity since their commercial release in 2017-2018, from city to city. The adoption rates have been quite impressive during their rather short time being on the market. The ride-hailing provider “Bird” had their ten millionth user within only twelve months of appearing in California for the first time. Another very popular ride- hailing provider, called “Lime” hit their 34 million trips in their first year of existing on the market. (Zarif, Pankratz, and Kelman 2019)

Also, other providers quickly gained market share in the micro mobility spectrum especially with automakers and other major providers of ride-hailing services, investing in micro mobility. It was quite clear at the beginning of the e-scooter hype, lots of different providers appeared but also disappear the same ways they presented themselves on the market. (Horx et al. 2018c) Theft and vandalism accompany this small industry. Moreover, main- taining the entire fleet proves to be very labor and cost intensive. Nevertheless, the question remains why micro mobility would even play an important role in mobility. Cities face more and more rapid growth in population and the need or the ne- cessity to move around the city becomes a challenge with the current transportation networks. Mass transit remains its position as the most efficient method to move large numbers of passengers on long distances but the problem of the first-mile and the last-mile challenge becomes quite visible at this stage of transit. Thus, if passengers lack an affordable and convenient way to take on their first or last-mile, they will choose to obtain a personal

Important Megatrends influencing and developing the Future of Urban Mobility Page 38 vehicle. This will subsequently lead to poor air quality, less parking spots, higher congestion rates and in general, a lower life quality in cities. (Zarif, Pankratz, and Kelman 2019)

• Smart cities

Smart cities will have a great impact on the future of mobility. A smart city is currently regarded as a buzzword that awakens excellent hopes for the evolution of cities. Big data in the urban context includes the statistical evaluation of movement flows, energy consumption and infrastructural utilization in order to enable precision control of the dense urban system. A smart city is an informed, networked, mobile, safe and sustainable city. However, smart cities are not characterized by smart technology, they are socially intelligent. This means that the use of technology and networking are at the service of people and improve quality of life. The sociologist Saskia Sassen argues that the smart city, despite all technology, will not exist until it manages to incorporate the intelligence of its inhabitants, and indeed of all the inhabitants of a city”. (Horx et al. 2018c)

Based on forecasts made by The World Bank around two-third of the entire population will be living in cities by 2050. Especially in developing and emerging countries, the future cities require an efficient, cost-effective and intelligent infrastructure. In industrialized and developed countries, the focus or the importance is primarily on the quality of life, attractive and convenient infrastructure and sustainability for the economy. Information is the beginning of everything, as data collected from various sensors enable smart cities to engage and inter- act with their citizens and also with their businesses and thus creating an entire environment coined by collaboration. (The Quintessence 2016)

What does this mean for mobility? Very often the existing literature has the focus on traffic management when it is about smart cities and mobility. However, smart cities tackle different kinds of mobility issues such as providing public access for citizens to real time information for the purpose of saving time and improving the trip, passengers make. Additionally, smart cities aim is ultimately to also save money, reduce CO2 emissions and guide and connect transportation to improve the services and provide citizens information. Connected vehicles and infrastructure pose a great opportunity for smart cities to become more connected, safer and smarter. (Arce-Ruiz, Alonso, and Aletá 2016)

Smart cities enable mobility to be as efficient and user friendly as possible. Not only do smart cities promote driverless travel in the future, a car-sharing network and a parking management system that is app-controlled, connected vehicles and infrastructure but the possibilities are nearly endless. Figure 13 shows the projected share of connected cars in the US, China and EU from 2020 to 2035. The y-axis shows the percentage of connected vehicles. (PwC and Strategy& 2020)

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Figure 14 : Projected share of connected cars in the US, China and EU from 2020 to 2035

• In-Vehicle Service

In-vehicle service becomes more popular than ever and car manufacturers are trying to implement this form of servitization in their vehicles. The next generation of drivers will be the technically savvy generations. They will play a very important role in the development of higher sustainability and the focus will be primarily on convenience and comfortable mobility solutions for the years to come. The focus of mobility will be on the user and therefore, in-vehicle services will play an important role. (Kuhnert, Stürmer, and Koster 2018)

In-vehicle services can range from infotainment, driver monitoring, onboard advertising and commerce, to driver monitoring and mobility data collection to provider-specific in-vehicle services. Here IoT is the main enabler for being able to provide such services within a vehicle. In-vehicle services’ core applications are data collection such as fuel consumption, general traffic, route tracking and accident data from the vehicle and data analysis. There are already many different providers of in-vehicle services integrations for different vehicles and vehicle types. (Horx et al. 2018a)

Additionally, in-vehicle services have the potential of becoming an adapted subscription model. Some of the in-vehicle services can be offered in bundles or into monthly, quarterly or half-yearly subscription agreements. The in-vehicle services provided can reach from very simple services such as providing seat heating or seat cooling in a half-yearly manner to more complex services. It is expected that the vehicle as it is known will become a platform for content and especially for personalized content. In-car entertainment is already one of the in-vehicle services that will impact personalized content and advertisement. New advertising models and also new consumer experiences are created and built for the future. According to Intel, the “passenger economy”, where the connected-device time and also

Important Megatrends influencing and developing the Future of Urban Mobility Page 40 the video-viewing time is increasing, could reach the billions by 2035. Rear seat entertainment (RSE) has been available on the market already for a long time via disc and video that can be played back on the phones and tablets of the passenger. With 4G connectivity, RSE has become more prevalent. This applies especially to luxury and so-called multi-purpose vehicles. However, the greatest impact should be in the mid up to the budget range for in- vehicle infotainment. (Pennington 2020)

3.3.2 Technology Trends Technology trends have a great impact on the future of new urban mobility, and they have the ability to transform and completely revolutionize the mobility industry. This chapter gives an overview of the most important and current technological trends. However, not all technologies are included since it would go beyond the scope of this thesis.

• Augmented Reality

Augmented Reality is already used for mobility, especially in the windshield of cars. HUD’s already paved the way for augmented reality integrations in vehicles. Moreover, augmented reality will no longer be limited to personal vehicles but also for public transportation such as busses and trains and surely as cities become “smart”, AR will be integrated or at least have the potential to be also integrated in the entire traffic system such as for crosswalks, traffic lights, road signs and others. This component of new urban mobility has the potential of being a revolution in itself. Safety is a key benefit and interest to integrate AR systems into traffic and vehicles and further into the entire mobility sphere. (The Quintessence 2018a)

Especially, autonomous driving is a major enabler for augmented reality in vehicles and smart cities. Augmented Reality infotainment, personalized advertisement and advanced Head-up-displays. Moreover, with the increase in electric vehicles on the market there is a possible new business model for the time passengers spend waiting to charge the car. Additionally, augmented reality could be integrated even before the customer can use this technology inside the vehicle, respectively in the buying process. This could make the buying process of vehicles more personalized, transparent and also more convenient. This can help to engage better with customers in a completely new way. It provides almost full convenience for the customer. Furthermore, AR can be integrated in the designing and manufacturing processes and finally in the vehicle. This technology could change road infrastructure as it is known, it could improve road safety, pedestrian safety and driver safety. (Giffi et al. 2019)

• Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence is a very intense and vigorously discussed subject and it has been a strong “buzzword” even outside the high-tech industry in recent years and months.

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Companies, governments and humans try to create scenarios of how AI will affect them and what benefits could emerge from Artificial Intelligence. However, since the 1950s, scientists, researchers and companies have been working on the topic of creating artificial intelligence and creating machines or systems that can imitate human intelligence. The term artificial intelligence was first coined by computer scientist John McCarthy at a conference held at Dartmouth University. Nevertheless, its relevance has only increased in the last few years. It continues to grow significantly, since only in recent years has it been possible to imitate learning and thinking processes that are similar to human processes. (The Quintessence 2018b) Artificial Intelligence has proved to be a key technology with considerable development potential which will significantly change the future of the economy and business, of human beings and everyday life. (Zukunftsinstitut 2019)

There is currently no scientifically accepted definition of artificial intelligence. However, the term was already coined in the fifties by scientists and professors in this field. Artificial intelligence is defined by Marvin Minsky, former MIT professor, as the science of making machines do things that would be considered intelligent if done by a human being. (Minsky 1966)

John McCarthy, the “Father of Artificial Intelligence” mentioned by many, defines artificial intelligence as: “The science and engineering of making intelligent machines”. (McCarthy 1956) Artificial Intelligence can be divided into three different subgroups. Weak artificial intelligence, strong artificial intelligence and artificial super intelligence. Artificial Intelligence is a great component of autonomous driving and smart cities. These aspects have the potential of transforming the entire mobility industry. However, at the moment, the applied artificial intelligence focuses on certain components and areas such as “intelligent” manufacturing, driver monitoring, advanced driver-assistance system (ADAS) system and vehicle autonomy as well as important systems for the development of autonomous driving. (Zukunftsinstitut 2019)

Especially for autonomous driving, artificial intelligence is a key component. AI is the driving factor for object recognition, and it helps self-driving cars to assess situations surrounding them. According to (The Quintessence 2018b) “The computer stores the knowledge gath- ered while driving in artificial neuronal networks. Experts then check the accuracy of the knowledge in the laboratory. Following further testing on the road, the artificially created knowledge structures can be downloaded to any number of other onboard AI computers by means of updates.” With more “feeding” data into the AI networks the better and more services can be offered. (The Quintessence 2018b)

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• Autonomous Driving

Autonomous driving has five different autonomy levels that are important to consider and to be aware of. At the moment level three is already quite commonly available in newly man- ufactured vehicles. For the remaining two levels, to be reached, there is still research and development to be conducted. Nevertheless, a few companies are focusing on further developing the technology and are intensely testing autonomous vehicles. Waymo, which is the self-driving unit of Alphabet, the sister company of Google, already runs trials that are successful with autonomous taxis in California. In the first month of trial they transported over 6,200 passengers and continue doing so. Moreover, other US companies are making use of autonomous cargo vans in order to deliver groceries or provide food deliveries. (Harris 2020) Autonomous vehicles are not only limited to private passengers, whether the vehicle is shared or owned but also for various activities of companies, self-employed or freelancers. Moreover, also the individualistic factor should be kept, even if the vehicle is not owned but used temporarily. Herefore, individualized experiences within the car will be an important component of the business model and also it will determine which key partners will be involved. It will also become quite important to convince passengers about the safety autonomous vehicles provide and give doubters enough reason to try out autonomous vehicles. It is important to create a safe environment for passengers in order to make them feel comfortable and take away fear. Nevertheless, in order to have a wide range roll out of autonomous vehicles, there need to be first other technologies implemented within the existing structure, such as IoT infrastructure, 5G, and other necessary technologies. (Giffi et al. 2019)

• IoT

Internet of things is in a non-technical manner, the interconnection of various computing devices via the internet, which are embedded in miscellaneous everyday objects, that enables them to send data and also receive data. (Atzori, Iera, and Morabito 2016)

IoT has a great impact on many industries and especially on the mobility industry as well as on the development of smart cities. Most vehicles are already equipped with smart assistance systems (navigation system, cruise control, lane departure warning system) and the integration of mobile devices, as well as the interconnection with the internet, is easily performed. However, the communication between vehicles or infrastructure is still in the development phase. This will be an important key enabler for connected mobility and subsequently for autonomous driving. (The Quintessence 2018a) Figure 15 shows the projection for IoT devices that will exist worldwide by the year 2025.

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Figure 15: The Internet of Everything (Kirig et al. 2018)

• Connected mobility

Connected mobility promises a bright future and potential for the future of new urban mobility. However, V2V or V2X still leaves a lot of room for improvements and further development. Significantly, the connection to parts of the infrastructure such as to the traffic lights, traffic jam warning systems. (Kirig et al. 2018) The connected car market was projected to increase in 2020 by 45% and for the year 2025, it is projected that most cars will be network compatible. Moreover, the focus for the mobility industry is not only V2V communication but also the infrastructure and the road network. Different cities across the globe are installing comprehensive sensor infrastructures, that have the ability to communicate from one system to another. This will not only help to develop autonomous driving further, but also help to develop other important areas. Addition- ally, V2V and connected mobility will have a great impact on special purpose vehicles such as those for firefighting vehicles, police, ambulance and rescue vehicles. (Harris 2020) Con- nected mobility will increase in importance and will create completely new possibilities for the entire mobility industry. However, as the 5G technology also progresses the communication and connection between vehicles will improve drastically and become a crucial and essential part of vehicles, other mobility components and mobility as a whole in general. (Giffi et al. 2019)

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3.3.3 Socio-Cultural Trends It is also necessary to consider outside trends or so-called socio-cultural trends that have an impact on mobility and also on its future developments. However, socio-cultural trends have an influence on consumer behavior, consumer perception of a certain product or service. Thus, it is clear that in order to gain valuable insights into the sphere of urban mobility it is important to understand the impact of social trends on mobility and on the interaction with new mobility.

• Ecological trend

The ecological trend has become the last few years very evident and established in society. Also, social enterprises and corporate responsibility have not only reached greater importance but for many societies this has become the norm. Supported by the growing environmental and responsibility awareness of people, an “adapted” morality of one’s own action developed on the pillars of the economy, ecology and ethics. This environmental con- sciousness is growing and taking on more and more influence and the awareness of ecological/environmental issues will continue to grow. Also, within the ecological trend there are sub-trends such as the sharing economy trend, green tech, circular economy, e-mobility and post-carbon society that have an influence on the mobility industry and on the development of mobility offers. (Rauch et al. 2018)

o Fridays for Future The movement “Fridays for Future” shows that ecological and sustainability awareness is already quite established in the minds of the younger generation (Generation Z, aged 7-22) and also in the minds of many millennials (aged 23-38). Fridays for Future is a movement that promotes sustainability not only as an individual lifestyle but rather as a societal movement. (Horx 2011)

However, it can be argued that those protests can turn out quite controversial. As the protests “Fridays for future” are about taking care of the planet and its resources, reducing meat consumption, lower CO2 levels, lowering or eliminating single-use plastic packaging and creating sustainable systems overall. When the protests end, the streets are left filled with plastic bottles, filth, as the environmentally conscious youngsters leave to get themselves a juicy beef burger.

• Status Symbol Car

The main purpose of a car is simply, to get from point A to point B. Even if the main purpose remained the same it changed the status of the owner especially, when the car was at the beginning of its time and only wealthy people could afford cars. With the progression of time, the car was also available to the middle class. But newer and more sophisticated vehicles, with newer technologies built in, color differences, and other factors created again

Important Megatrends influencing and developing the Future of Urban Mobility Page 45 that the vehicles are perceived as luxury symbols. Nowadays, the car as a status symbol is in the western culture based on the brand and the price tag of the vehicle. However, this changed with the technological change and with the shift in consumer behavior. Access instead of owning, as well as convenience becomes the most important factor for urban mobility. The access principle becomes the go to principle for urban mobility, national, international and global. The new “status” becomes the access to mobility everywhere and whenever it is needed. The abundance of car sharing providers and platform operators like Uber or Waymo are great examples of new business models that design mobility according to the access principle based on networks. Above all, digitalization and digital services make it easier than ever to give up ownership of cars without sacrificing comfort. (Horx et al. 2018a)

• Megacities

Cities face extremely rapid population growth and it becomes a real challenge from every aspect to maintain the city as livable as possible. Over half of the entire world’s population is living at the moment in urban areas and the number is projected to rise to two-third who live in urban areas by 2050. The demand for urban transportation will increase immensely. (Zarif, Pankratz, and Kelman 2019)

Megacities are cities or metropolitan regions with more than 10 million inhabitants. Accord- ing to the UN, the largest of these is the Tokyo metropolitan region with around 37 million inhabitants, followed by Delhi with 29 million, Shanghai with 26 million and Mexico City and Sao Paulo with 22 million inhabitants each. Cairo, Mumbai, Peking and Dhaka each have just under 20 million inhabitants. According to UN forecasts, there will be 43 megacities by 2030, most of them in developing countries (UN 2018). A development towards future gigacities with more than 100 million inhabitants is being driven forward above all in China. While in other regions of the world cities are growing due to the individual migration of the rural population, in the middle of China the government is pushing the rural population to move to the cities. For this purpose, cities are designed on the drawing board, but also focus on the controlled growth of cities with millions of inhabitants into megacities and even gigacities. However, these cities have little or nothing to do with historically grown cities and our classical understanding of the city. The planned Jing-Jin-Ji Giga region, which consists of the cities of Beijing, Tianjin and the surrounding Hebei Province, will be home to more than 130 million people in an area of more than 200,000 square kilometers. However, this is not only a demonstration of power, but above all, a way of relieving the pressure on the city centers. Beijing is in a state of traffic collapse: permanent traffic jams on the streets, the underground trains are hopelessly overcrowded, air pollution is omnipresent. Nevertheless, rents have spiked up so much that they have become unaffordable for many people. Sustainability and quality of life are concepts that are becoming increasingly important, especially in the world's multi-million

Important Megatrends influencing and developing the Future of Urban Mobility Page 46 metropolises due to acute urbanization. The infrastructural, ecological and economic development of these rapidly growing urban regions is becoming a global task for the future. Europe also experiences a growth in its cities and they will increase more and more in citizens. (Horx et al. 2018a) Figure 16 shows the rate cities are growing as the population increases. By 2050 it is projected that over half of the population will live in cities.

Figure 16: Growing cities (Zukunftsinstitut 2018)

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Figure 17: Urbanization of Europe (Horx et al. 2018c)

Figure 17 shows that also Europe experiences a clear increase and growth in cities. Rural areas will face great difficulties in functioning efficiently.

• Aging societies

Many countries and cities become inherently older and the elderly population makes up a significant proportion of society. Longevity has become one of the greatest achievements of the modern society. All over the world, people have gained around six years of life expectancy in the last 20 years. (Sobczak 2014) Europeans are expected to live longer than ever before and to continue to increase due to medical advances and in generally improved living standards. In the year 2020, a quarter of European citizens will be over 60 years old. In combination with low birth rates, the European society will face significant changes in its structures. This will have an impact on the economy, health care systems and social security to other areas of life. This again will have an impact on innovation and technology developments and health, mobility and structure-related research. (Zukunftsinstitut 2018)

“Europeans are living longer and healthier lives, and subsequent generations can benefit from longer lifespans lived together. This spectacular achievement of European societies is accompanied, however, by fertility rates below replacement levels and, in a remarkably

Important Megatrends influencing and developing the Future of Urban Mobility Page 48 large number of countries, far under that level. As a result, population growth is slowing down while population aging accelerates. In particular, rapid increases in the elderly population are predicted for the coming decades due to the aging of post-war baby boomers. In addition, persistent low fertility rates lead to a marked reduction in the labor force in the near as well as more distant future. These developments reflect the deep transformations in the age composition of European populations. Along with changing family and house- hold structures, they set a largely new demographic scene for development prospects in Europe.” (Sobczak 2014)

3.3.4 Gartner Hype Cycle The Gartner Hype Cycle for Connected Vehicles and Smart Mobility, 2020 provides a few new emerging technologies in the automotive industry. (Gartner 2020a) Over half of the technologies acknowledged on the hype cycle are in the trough of disillusionment, this means that all the hard work spent to commercialize significant technologies is advancing. Many of those technologies stated on the hype cycle will become fruitful parts of the mobility ecosystem.

Many of the mentioned technologies will have a great impact on how mobility is perceived as they are “door openers” for many other business models or technologies. (Gartner 2020a) The connected vehicles and smart mobility hype cycle show clear signs that mobility is moving into the digitalized and connected path and the services provided with the vehicle as well as new and innovative technology.

Figure 18: Hype Cycle, Connected Vehicles and Smart Mobility .

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3.4 Summary

Concluding it can be said that mobility is already changing and will change a lot in the next few years. Megatrends, technology trends and also societal changes affect the entire mobility industry and also aligning and related industries. It can also be said that trends are short-termed and very dependent on a myriad of factors that are not controllable, which would make decisions based on trends quite unreliable. However, when taking into consideration megatrends and sub-trends that have been researched for longer periods of time and backed with critical data then projections and valid scenarios can be derived from those trends. Nevertheless, it can be the case at some point that a trend just vanishes due to a technological breakthrough, global catastrophes or is postponed for a later period in time due to global crisis and such. Subsequently, trends have to be chosen based on the ability to provide information that supports the trend claim. In this thesis, the trends were chosen in a way that it gives an overall view of the trends affecting, influencing and indirectly im- pacting the mobility industry and how urban mobility is performed.

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4 What external Factors are affecting Urban Mobility? Important Aspects to consider for the Future of Urban Mobility

Many different changes and aspects are transforming how mobility is implemented, perceived and finally used. This chapter has the objective to give insights into what different surrounding changes could have an impact on urban mobility. This part of the thesis should also have the purpose of showing what new aspects should be considered for the conceptualization and realization of new urban mobility. Thus, the PESTEL analysis will be applied within this chapter in order to gain a structured and an overall view about important and crucial aspects of the future of urban mobility. Moreover, it is important to consider influencing factors such as technology acceptance factors, psychological factors and other elements on top of the PESTEL factors, that may have an impact on urban mobility. This will give in-depth insights into very important factors that are not directly related to mobility but can really change many details of how mobility could develop.

4.1 PESTEL Analysis

This macro analysis of environmental factors is necessary and essential for this thesis as it screens what “outside” factors could have an influence on the future of urban mobility. The PESTEL analysis helps to identify the most important elements and give an overall recapit- ulation of all the important components that influence urban mobility and the development of urban mobility. The PESTEL analysis counts as one of the most known strategic tools that helps to focus on specific market conditions and conclude potential developments. The PESTEL analysis is often used to analyze the macro environment of companies. However, in this case the strategic analysis tool helps to get essential information to understand important factors within the sphere of mobility and external factors that have an impact and influence mobility. (Theobald 2018)

Introduction to PESTEL Analysis

PESTEL is an analysis “tool” which is commonly used in order to gain a better insight into the external business environment. PESTEL is the acronym for the distinct factors: political, economic, social, technological, environmental and legal. The core elements of this analysis are the political, economic, social and technology factor the other remaining factors the environmental and legal factor can be seen as an add on, the shortened version is also called PEST Analysis. (Alanzi 2018) However, for this thesis all factors are deemed as necessary. Nonetheless, the political and legal factor are merged as one factor as well as the social and ecological factor are for this thesis formulated within one sub-point.

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Furthermore, this analysis should provide subsequently the risks and potentials by external factors and thus those risks can be controlled better, and the potentials could be utilized better. For a meaningful analysis it is important to show relevant development trends in the different areas (five factors) over the next three to five years. (Theobald 2018) Political and legal factors include legal norms, organization and stability of political systems, behavior of political bodies. The economical factor describes economic growth, inflation, interest rates, exchange rate, unemployment rates. The social and ecological factor of the PESTEL analysis assesses values, attitudes and behavior, demographic structure and the education system. Furthermore, the availability of natural resources, emission levels and the location play an important role. Finally, the technological factor analyzes public and private R&D investments, basic technology, key technology and future technology. (Alanzi 2018) The PESTEL analysis in this thesis has the focus on Europe and examples from different countries are given, however there is no in-depth analysis of single countries within the European region. Moreover, the PESTEL analysis has in this thesis a rather “hands-on” approach and is closely aligned to the subject of this thesis as well as to the objective. Thus, not all common sub-factors are included in the analysis

4.1.1 Political and Legal Factor The political factor is for mobility an essential factor and it has great influence over the development and especially over the implementation of new technologies and platforms. Very often politics and the legal factor are not in the forefront of new mobility and what impact they could have over its developments.

Stability of political systems and behavior of political bodies

One important factor is the stability of political systems as well as the behavior of political bodies. The general political stability in Europe can be described as overall a rather stable environment with few exemptions and turbulent times over the years. The European Union especially, is based on the democratic principles and on predefined values that are viable to all European Union members. Moreover, the values of the Euro- pean Union should be applied and lived by all European Union members. The European values, that have been predefined by the European Union are human dignity, freedom, de- mocracy, equality, rule of law and human rights. These values are anchored in most member states of the EU. A value set like those of the EU certainly shape cultures and they are manifested in the “spirit” of the European citizens. (European Union 2020) Generally, the European Union is overall a safe, free and democratic place to live and to do business as well as giving opportunities and space to new companies and new innovations as well as technologies.

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The index of political stability and absence of violence/terrorism indicates the overall political stability within individual countries. This includes the likelihood of politically motivated violence and terrorism or also the likelihood of governments being destabilized or even over- thrown in a violent manner. The index ranges from -2.5 with a weak political stability, to 2.5 for strong political stability and 0 is a rather neutral position. The average index (based on 195 different countries) is about -0.05, the Austrian index was in 2019 at 0.98 and the highest level was in 1996 with 1.41 points. Generally, Austria and the greater part of Europe is ranked quite high and the overall safety can be guaranteed. (the Global Economy 2020b) Moreover, also the political globalization, is a quite important factor, which is simply determined by the sum of international organizations and institutions to which the specific country is a member, the overall number of embassies, the sum of UN peace missions a nation has participated in and also the overall sum of signed treaties between at least two states. (the Global Economy 2020c)

Another indication for political stability within a country or region is the press freedom index. Europe has overall a very good position within the index. The index is published annually by the organization “Reporters Without Borders” (RSF). The index ranks in total 180 countries as well as regions worldwide based on the level of freedom that is available to journalists. This index is not an indicator of the journalism quality nor does it classify public policies in each country. RSF, classifies the countries and regions based on the overall independ- ence of the public and private media, the quality of the overall legislative framework and also the safety, journalists experience in each country. The highest freedom of press can be seen in Scandinavian countries as well as in northern countries. The eastern and south- ern regions of Europe have rather lower rates and the freedom of press index, classifies those regions and countries with an overall lower ranking. (Reporters without borders 2020)

Furthermore, the “Corruption Perceptions Index” (CPI) draws up a yearly evaluation of the corruption levels worldwide. The year 2020 especially proved to be among the worst years regarding corruption. This can be linked to the current pandemic, as in the handling of the crisis a lot of corruption claims were raised. The CPI evaluates and scores 180 countries as well as territories by the perceived level of corruption within the public sector. The levels of corruption are according to businesspeople and experts. The scale ranges from 100 to 0 with 100 being very clean in terms of corruption and 0 which means the levels of corruption are very high. In the. year 2020 two thirds of all countries scored below 50 out of 100 points. The highest scoring region was Western Europe and European Union, among the top 10 are especially Scandinavian countries and European countries with low points are overall south- eastern regions such as Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, Serbia, Bosnia and Herzegovina and Malta. (Transparency International 2020)

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Investments for Mobility

Transportation policy is already over 30 years, part of the joint politics in the EU and is also strongly coined to the climate objectives and the “new green deal”. Especially, in the year 2020 sustainable and intelligent mobility has gained enormously in importance, due to the investment plan for a sustainable and future-oriented Europe – financing the new green deal where transportation and mobility were also included. Currently for the new green deal around 100 billion EUR per year are invested into transportation in sustainable and intelligent mobility in order to decrease climate deteriorating factors. Moreover, 192 billion EUR per year are to be invested in social infrastructure which surely goes hand in hand with mobility and mobility offers. (Europäisches Parlament 2020)

The investments in mobility and especially in e-mobility was considerable. Many vehicle manufacturers placed major investments in future mobility trends and developments such as autonomous driving. Moreover, the European Union provided a new investment plan that includes mobility and strongly focuses on European transportation. (Holland-Letz et al. 2019) Volkswagen has prepared an investment plan for mobility about 73 billion EUR that should be invested until 2025. The allocation of the investment is spread 35 billion EUR for electromobility, hybridization receives 11 billion EUR and 27 billion EUR are allocated to digitization. Audi also disclosed that the corporate group intends to invest 15 billion EUR until 2022 in electromobility and hybridization. (“Audi investiert 15 Mrd. Euro in E-Mobility” 2020) The majority of the investments are running into autonomous vehicles, electrification, connectivity and the Internet of Things as well as on smart mobility.

The following figure shows the investments in mobility by important players since the year 2010 until 2020. The figure clearly shows that Europe has quite low investment rates compared to others. The US and China are leading in terms of investments and the United States also leads in terms of the total number of companies that have appeared during those years in the mobility cluster. Hereby, also Europe has quite a few important start-ups and companies within the sphere of mobility. This shows great potential for the future of this industry and that clearly there is demand and need for new solutions for infrastructure and mobility in Europe. (Holland-Letz et al. 2019)

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Figure 19: Investments in Mobility, (Holland-Letz et al. 2019)

Moreover, what should not be left out is that there is a clear trend that over 90 per cent of investments are made by non-automotive players, private equity firms and venture capital- ists. Additionally, traditional companies in the mobility industry such as General Motors, Volkswagen, Honda et cetera invest a great proportion in new units such as for autonomous driving. (Pratty 2020)

Patents

Additional to investments, which give a great look into the dynamics of the mobility industry, patents are quite an interesting factor to consider as it indicates a lot about the research and development stages of innovation and technology within companies. Patents give a great insight into how innovative companies act and what their take is on creating new technologies and new solutions in their field of business. (European commission 2020) The total number of patents in the most important technologies and also technologies that will have the greatest impact on mobility is around 32,000 patents. This reveals that the mobility and infrastructure market is growing immensely and new technologies within this field are receiving quite a lot of attention from technology firms, in-house departments, startups and technology R&D institutes. The largest number of issued patents were in the AV and ADAS components, electric vehicles and charging and batteries. (Holland-Letz et al. 2019)

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Figure 20: Total number of patents since 2010 (Holland-Letz et al. 2019)

The following figure shows the distribution of filed patents in the mobility industry by companies in different industries and branches, by business segments between the years 2012 and 2016. The y-axis shows the share of business segments and the areas that have shares of filed patents are mobility services, connected and autonomous driving and sustainable and ecofriendly vehicles. (Reiner and Nienhaus 2017) This illustration clearly shows that the area of interest is for connected and autonomous vehicles. (Statista 2021)

This is also the area that has the highest investment rates from governments and companies as well as private investors. Moreover, it can be concluded that vehicle manufacturer have their focus on producing in general hardware for mobility services and tech companies rather focus on software patents. Many experts in this field suggest that these steps are a turning point for mobility and these developments turn the vehicles as a means of transportation to a so-called data center on wheels. However, this also means to build alliances with other players in this field and concentrate R&D resources is necessary. (Reiner and Nienhaus 2017)

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Figure 21: Patenting by Incubents vs. New Players, (Reiner and Nienhaus 2017)

Additionally, the patent application in Germany in the field of automotive drive technologies have risen quite a lot over the years. The colored categories in the illustration are repre- senting applied patents in batteries, fuel cell and electric drive. Especially, batteries experience a high rate of applied patents. (Brandt 2020)

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Figure 22: Patent application for E-Mobility are on the rise, (Brandt 2020)

Overall, it can be said that patents are another factor that should be investigated in order to gain a better understanding of what technologies and business trends are becoming important the next few years.

4.1.2 Economical Factor The economical factor is also one of the most important factors within the PESTEL framework as it indicates the buying power, how or if there is enough economic wealth in order to invest in certain technologies or business models. Economical structures such as general economic growth and unemployment rates play a great role for the economical factor. Fur- thermore, an important factor regarding mobility is the infrastructure, which says a lot about economic wealth of a country or territory.

Economic growth The economic growth indicates quite easily the overall economic wealth of countries and gives extensive information about the current economic status. Economic growth can be measured quite easily by the GDP of the individual countries or regions and it gives a quite comprehensive economic health check. (Investopedia 2021) The GDP of the European Un- ion had almost a constant growth the past years and reached 2019 a GDP of EUR, 13,94 trillion. (Statista 2020a) This shows an overall high economic wealth and also a constant increase in wealth. However, in order to remain and excel the economic growth it is important to consider also the driver of such economic growth which ultimately results in long- term success. Such drivers can be for example, the standard of living, very good education systems, as well as social programs and thus create a high living standard and highly skilled workforce. (Investopedia 2021)

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Figure 23: EU GDP from 2009 to 2019 (in trillion euro), Statista 2020

GDP, PPP The GDP, PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) which adjusts also for the differences in local prices and considers additionally also the cost of living, in order to be able to make cross- country comparisons of living standards, real income and real output. (Statista 2020a)This form of measurement considers the drivers of economic wealth and also calculates the cost of living as well as the differences in local prices which enables the cross-country comparison. (Investopedia 2021)

Figure 24: EU GDP based on PPP from 2014 to 2024, Statista 2020

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The Austrian GDP (mio. EUR) was 2019 at 397,575 and had an economic growth rate compared to the previous year of 1.4%. (The World Bank 2020) The GDP per capita was at 44,780 mio. EUR. However, it is expected that Austria will recover 2021 and be at + 4.5% on average. (WKO, STATISTIK AUSTRIA, and WIFO 2020)

Figure 25: Real GDP from 2009 – 2022 (WKO, STATISTIK AUSTRIA, and WIFO 2020)

However, it is quite interesting that rather low performing markets such as Hungary, Malta, Estonia, Poland, Romania and others had 2019 quite high GDP growth rates. (Statista 2020a) Which, however, can again take a turning point and decrease in growth due to the pandemic crisis.

Impact of COVID Crisis on GDP As all unforeseen impact factors, no one can prepare for such events and the impact on economies, societies and environments can only be measured and grasped after some time. In the case of the COVID crisis, it has created new challenges not only for the economy but also for societies, safety and security and many other factors, worldwide.

This can also be seen in the average growth rate of the GDP in the EU. In 2019 the average growth rate was at 1.5%, the previous year was at a growth rate of 2.1% and in 2020, when the COVID Crisis hit Europe and the rest of the world the average “growth” rate was at staggering - 7.4% in the EU. In comparison to the financial crisis 2008/2009 the average growth rate was at - 4.3% in the EU. This clearly shows that this crisis is taking its toll on

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the entire economy and also all other important factors within countries, that have a great impact on economic growth with long-term effects such as education, mental health of citizens, health rates, trust in governments and public institutions. (WKO, STATISTIK AUSTRIA, and WIFO 2020)

Figure 26: Average growth rate of GDP in EU from 2013 to 2022, Statista 2020

Globalization index The globalization index which basically covers the whole dimensions of economic, political and social factors. The higher the index the greater is the globalization rate in that country. The top ten countries in this index are solely European countries. Among the top 3 global- ized countries, are Switzerland with 90.79 from 100 total points, Netherlands with 90.68 points and Belgium with 90.46 points. Austria is on the 7th place with 88.56 points. (the Global Economy 2020a)

Consumer Price Index (CPI) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the general price trends as well as the general price inflation. Moreover, CPI is also used for the valuation of fixed amounts of money such as rents or living costs. December 2020 had an inflation rate of 1.2% of which energy, housing and water were the main price driver. The lockdown imposed by the government in Austria had a rather strong impact on how the inflation rate was calculated. Due to the lockdown several branches and sectors such as entertainment, tourism, gastronomy, culture was affected and therefore, the calculations were different than usual. Moreover, the retail sector was strongly affected by the lockdowns and measures, that online shopping

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Figure 27: CPI Austria from 2019 to 2020, (WKO, STATISTIK AUSTRIA, and WIFO 2020)

Human Development Index The Human Development Index is a yearly evaluation of the current development stage within various countries. The HDI not only measures economic development but has the focus on social development in the respective countries and evaluates individual human development. The index is composed of four vital components, the average years of education, expected years of schooling, the life expectancy at birth and also the gross national income per capita. (Investopedia 2020) Additionally, the HDI provides the reader with certain classification that describes whether the development rates are low or high. If the HDI is below 0.550 then the human development is very low, between 0.550 and 0.699 the rate means a medium, between 0.700 and 0.799 the rate depicts high human development. Finally, 0.800 and higher is for a very high human development. The impact of COVID-19 on the HDI can be measured only after one year and will be very visible at the end of the year 2021.The immense impact on other social and socioeconomical factors will have larger repercussions than they are perceived at the moment, will be visible only after some time passed. (UNDP 2020a)

The average range of the HDI in the European Union is at 0.87 points as for the latest available data. (WHO 2020) This means based on the classifications that Europe has very high human development rates.

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Overall, it can be said that European countries have worldwide the highest human development rates. The top ten countries with the highest HDI rates can be viewed in figure 28, 8 out of 10 are European countries. Austria is ranked on place 18 with 0.922 points. The lowest ranked European countries are Moldova on place 90 out of 189 ranked countries, North Macedonia on place 82, Bosnia and Herzegovina on place 73, Albania 69, Serbia 64, Bulgaria 56, Romania 49 and Croatia ranked on the 43rd place. (UNDP 2020b)

Figure 28: Human Development Index (HDI) Ranking, 2020, (UNDP 2020b)

The simulated impact of the COVID pandemic can be viewed in the next figure. Moreover, also a comparison can be made when looking at the annual change in the HDI value, when there was 2008/2009 the global financial crisis and the simulation of 2020. (UNDP 2020a)

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Figure 29: Figure 29: Covid-19 pandemic's shock to human development, (UNDP 2020a)

Unemployment rates Another indicator for the economic health of countries and entire regions is the unemployment rate. This rate or indication for the economic status-quo is in the year 2020 is 9.9% inn 2008/2009 the unemployment rate was between 5,9% and 7,2%. As of December 2020, the AMS registered around 409,000 unemployed people in Austria. (WKO, STATISTIK AUSTRIA, and WIFO 2020)

Figure 30: Unemployment rate 1955 – 2022, (WKO, STATISTIK AUSTRIA, and WIFO 2020)

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In Europe the highest unemployment rates as of July 2020 had Greece, Spain, Italy and Sweden with more than 9% and it is forecasted to become even worse the upcoming year. The European Union and Euro area had quite a few high and lows in the unemployment rate, the last few years. (Statista 2020a)

Figure 31: Unemployment rate in the EU and Euro area from 2009 – 2019, (Statista 2020)

Infrastructure Infrastructure is a very peculiar factor to analyze as a lot of underlying information can be retrieved from it, from infrastructure investments to its maintenance as it can indicate the level of CO2 emissions, resulted by bad roads as well as the inability to cope with the level of demand for public transportation due to such bad roads. Furthermore, the level of passenger transport and freight transport as well as road accidents can indicate and give insights into many different elements of infrastructure and the mobility part of infrastructure.

Infrastructure Investment The infrastructure investments are a very important factor that should be considered in order to give a better insight into influencing components of mobility. Moreover, investments in infrastructure also give insights into the development of countries especially into lower developed countries within the European Union. However, it is important to differentiate the investments of lower developed countries such as eastern European countries since most developed countries in Europe such as central or northern countries have rather a lower rate of infrastructure investments due to existing good or sufficient infrastructure. (OECD Publishing 2019)

Nevertheless, infrastructure investment is certainly a key indicator of performance within the sector of transportation. Overall, infrastructure investment includes the spending on new

What external Factors are affecting Urban Mobility? Important Aspects to consider for the Future of Urban Mobility Page 65 transport construction as well as the improvement of current and existing network. Inland infrastructure compromises inland waterways, maritime ports, airports, road and rail. An efficient infrastructure for transportation not only provides economic benefits but also social benefits for both, advanced as well as emerging economies. This is achieved by the improvement of market accessibility, creating employment, connecting communities and rural areas and also by promoting labor mobility. (OECD 2021)

Figure 32 shows the infrastructure investments in Europe from the year 2015 to 2018 as percentage of the GDP. Here, it can be seen that emerging economies have on average greater shares of infrastructure investments than advanced economies.

Figure 32: Infrastructure Investments Europe from 2015 to 2018, (OECD 2021)

Infrastructure maintenance Additional to infrastructure investments also its maintenance is very important which covers the maintenance of existing transport infrastructure and it also convers solely expenditure that are financed by public administrations. Infrastructure maintenance covers rail, road, air and sea maintenance and is measured in euros. (OECD 2021)

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The following figure shows the spending of infrastructure maintenance of various Euro- pean countries for road, rail and air in billions.

Figure 33: Infrastructure maintenance spending by European countries, (OECD 2021)

Passenger Transport vs. Freight Transport Another interesting factor to consider is the passenger transport rate compared to the number of freight transported. The passenger transport indicator refers to the entire movement on a network provided using inland transportation. The freight transportation indicator refers to the movement of goods by using inland transport on a existing network. (OECD Publishing 2019) The following figure shows the share of passenger mileage in the European Union by transportation mode.

Figure 34: Share of passenger mileage in EU in 2018, (Statista 2020e)

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Figure 35 shows on the other side the freights mileage by its transportation mode in 2018 in Europe.

Figure 35: Inland freight mileage in EU in 2018, (Statista 2020e)

Passenger car registrations The passenger car registration indication refers to newly registered passenger vehicles. This includes privately bought and commercial vehicles, registered by authorities and public institutions. The passenger car registration indication is measured inn number of units and via the European Automobile Manufacturer Association (ACEA). The data showed in figure 35, concludes the growth over the previous period. This figure clearly shows that the newly registered vehicles drastically decreased each year all over Eu- rope.

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Figure 36: Passenger car registrations from 2016 to 2020, (OECD 2021)

4.1.3 Social and ecological factor The social aspect for the development of urban mobility is a crucial factor that needs to be considered and is strongly connected to the socio-cultural trends, such as aging population, urbanization, megacities, status symbol car. These are influencing factors that impact quite a lot how the development of urban mobility is planned and executed. Moreover, the past few years the ecological factor played a very important role for societies, companies and governments. The awareness within societies is very high and the ecological and sustainable character becomes more prevalent in all areas of society. The social and ecological factor uphold a very essential role in how mobility will change in the future and will be used by citizens and within entire areas. In order to gain a better understanding of the social factors in Europe it is important to break it up in different subcategories.

Demographic structure Europe and the entire world, except for some areas, are experiencing an aging population thanks to the medical developments, increasing wealth and good nutrition. In Europe as well as in South America more than one third of the population is over 60 years old. This

What external Factors are affecting Urban Mobility? Important Aspects to consider for the Future of Urban Mobility Page 69 will have a great impact on the entire world, as it influences the workforce, social systems, economy, urban mobility and many other factors. (Horx et al. 2018d)

o Population The current world population is at 7,844,787,989 people. The top 5 largest countries are China, India, USA, Indonesia and Pakistan. The annual growth rate as of 2020 is at around 1.05% and has gradually dropped by 0.02% each year. It is forecasted that between 2035 and 2040 the world population will be at over 9,000,000,000 people. (Worldometer 2021a) The European population is currently at 747,914,979 and the annual growth rate is at 0.06% and it makes up 8,78% of the world population. The population density of Europe is 34 people per km2 and 74.5% of the population can be classified as urban. Moreover, the median age in Europe is 42.5 years. (Worldometer 2021b) The following figure shows the world population from 1950 to 2019 in Europe. It shows quite clear the slow but steady increase in population in Europe.

Figure 37: European population between 1950 and 2019, (Worldometer 2021b)

Moreover, the next figure shows the population in Europe that lives in rural areas and in urban areas. It becomes quite clear that with time, urban areas and suburban areas are increasing in population density. In 2019 554,832,332 people (74.3%) in Europe lived in urban areas. (Worldometer 2021b) Also, cities are becoming larger and transform into megacities, this also means that city planning has to become more efficient and focused on the quality of live in these areas such as green places, sustainable buildings and roads, affordable housing and efficient public transportation. (Horx et al. 2018c)

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Figure 38: Europe Population, Urban vs. Rural from 1955 to 2020, (Worldometer 2021b)

o Births and Fertility vs. Death and Mortality The birth rates in Europe have drastically decreased since 1955 when the average birth per woman was at 2,7 and today with the average birth per woman of 1,6 births. Between 2000 and 2005 there was a low of 1.4 births per woman. The infant mortality is at an all-time low with 3.4 infant deaths per 1,000 births. In 1955 the infant death rate per 1,000 births was at 71.61 infants. (Worldometer 2021b)

Figure 39: Total Fertility Rate, Europe from 1955 to 2020, (Worldometer 2021b)

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The average life expectancy in Europe is for females 82.3 years and for men 75.9 years. This rate has increased over the years very steadily and continuously. Figure 40 shows the average life expectancy by gender and region for those who were born in 2020. (Statista 2020b)

Figure 40: Average life expectancy Europe, (Statista 2020b)

Education system The share of education spending in ratio to the country’s GDP often gives a good indication of the quality and sense of importance. Moreover, education is one of the key components to have and advance the needed workforce that is much needed for the modern economy. With increasing digitalization and autonomous systems, it is crucial to have an equipped workforce at all ages in order to remain competitive and survive on the global market. How- ever, there is no blueprint for the development and creation of a successful education that fits to the current changes in society and industries.

Nevertheless, among the most successful education systems have been countries that invested in a better infrastructure and a digital infrastructure for students and teachers, low- ered the age when tests are introduced to students and limited inequality. Around 40% of the younger European generation are holding a university degree. Thus, a higher number of people are prepared to enter a knowledge economy. However, this also means that the value of degrees has decreased, and potential candidates have to further educate themselves more and more and stand out from the crowd. That is also one of the many reasons why e-learning has become very popular. (Clark 2019)

However, home schooling and e-learning will never substitute the social components students are experiencing at schools or universities and institutions. Especially, home schooling has become for first graders and their parents a very difficult. Moreover, the strains on pupils, young adults and also adults will be only visible after some time has passed and

What external Factors are affecting Urban Mobility? Important Aspects to consider for the Future of Urban Mobility Page 72 numbers are visualized and taken into account. The psychological affects and its outcome will be a societal issue that will need lots of attention, also from the educational side. (Wegscheider-Pichler, Prettner, and Lamei 2020) The education spending in the European Union as a share of the GDP and its annual change rate can indicate quite a lot about a countries perspective for their youth and focus for the future. The next figure shows the spending rate in European Union countries. (Clark 2019)

Figure 41: Education spending in the EU as a share of the GDP, (Clark 2019)

The highest spending rates are from Scandinavian countries, who are at the same time among the best equipped and prepared in terms of education compared to other European countries. (Clark 2019)

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Figure 42: Share of primary students that are digitally equipped in Europe, (Clark 2019)

Moreover, the illiteracy rate among adults (over 15 years old) in 2019 was in Europe and Central Asia at 1.5% of all citizens. The countries with the highest illiteracy rate in Europe are San Marino, Latvia, Belarus and Russia. (UNDP 2020a)

Sustainability and Ecology Sustainability and environmental friendliness have become the past years more and more important and the awareness levels are heightened for sustainability and the environment. Additionally, to the awareness also the great developments of technology are creating new possibilities to save and conserve natural resources. The sustainability trend has trans- formed from being a unusual trend only certain people would follow, to something that has been engrained into the heads of a greater part of the population of many countries. (Rauch et al. 2018)

This development also plays a tremendous part in the evolution of mobility and its future. Sustainability already had a great impact on the mobility market and will further play a big role. New and sustainable technologies as well as business models are needed and already introduced and implemented such as the car-sharing concept. It is forecasted that sustainable mobility business models and concepts should have an average annual increase of 14,5 % the next years. (Bundesministerium für Umwelt, Naturschutz und nukleare Sicher- heit (BMU) 2018)

Improvements in mobility and also in terms of sustainability are needed in city’s but developments are especially needed in rural areas and outskirts. Moreover, this sustainability principle also transfers onto companies and their policies. Corporate Responsibility is becoming over the years not only important but essential and cannot be left out by companies regardless their industry or field of business. (Rauch et al. 2018)

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An indicator for a country’s sustainability is the earth overshoot day indicator. Austria’s earth overshoot day is on April 8th, 2021 this year. This means from that day forward if all countries would live like Austria, there would be a need for more than two earths to have enough resources. The world would currently need 1.6 planets to support the demand on the earth’s ecosystem. The pandemic surely had its effects on this year’s evaluation due to unforeseen demands in various fields. However, it is still not very clear how much damage the pandemic caused on the overall different indicators for the ecological footprint. (Global Footprint Network 2021)

Moreover, the CO2 emission levels have drastically, increased worldwide. The greatest factor for increasing emission levels is the increasing prosperity. Nevertheless, also policy and technological choices. The highest emission come from China with staggering 10.17 billion t in CO2 emissions followed by a sum of all other Asian countries with 7.45 billion t. (OWID 2021)

Figure 43: Annual total CO2 Emission, (OWID 2021)

Overall, sustainability and green technology is already a crucial part in many countries and companies and will become more integrated in daily lives.

4.1.4 Technological Factor Technical improvements and developments are vital for new urban mobility and not only for mobility but also for the general development and competitiveness of countries and regions. The higher the innovation and having the leadership over key technologies, the higher the competitiveness on the world market and with key player. Moreover, it is also important to gain a better understanding of new players in the markets.

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Innovation Innovation in mobility is probably one of the most important factors to consider, as it gives a good insight into the competitiveness of countries on the world market. Especially, the speed rate at which innovations are developed is quite impressive. Also new players in the market give the traditional and already established manufacturer a lot of pressure and competition. New and highly innovative solutions are dominated mostly by new players in the market. (OECD Publishing 2019)

Bloomberg publishes since 2012 yearly an innovation index that ranks countries based on various criterions such as research and development spending, concentration of high-tech public companies, manufacturing capabilities, productivity, research personnel concentration and other factors. The ranking published in the year 2021, surely gives insights into great achievement during a global pandemic and difficult times. Moreover, it shows that in such situation it was, and it is going to be extremely essential to have good and stable digital infrastructure in order to be able to function and move forward.

Surely, the pandemic showed what innovation is all about by making it clear that adaptation is one of the most important factors for innovation, especially during a crisis situation. The health and medical industry had one of the highest innovation rates clearly due to given circumstances. Out of the top 10 most innovative countries 7 are European countries and the DACH region strongly represented among the best ranks with Switzerland on the 3rd place, Germany on the 4th place and finally Austria on the 10th most innovative countries. (Jamrisko, Lu, and Tanzi 2021)

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Figure 44: The top 10 most innovative Economies worldwide, (Jamrisko, Lu, and Tanzi 2021)

New players on the market New tech-companies within the mobility industry really outperform traditional industry players and their market capitalization decreased by over 10 percent. New players in the market, Uber, Tesla, Tier, car2go Waymo and many others are growing exponentially, and their market capitalization is increasing more than ever.

The following figure shows the increase within the years in the value of the most “known” brands in this field. However, traditional companies still hold a very strong position in certain trends of mobility due to their immense R&D investments as well as their patents issued in various new technologies and trends. (Holland-Letz et al. 2019)

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Figure 45: New mobility providers valuation, (Holland-Letz et al. 2019)

Electric vehicles, autonomous vehicles and shared vehicles. Autonomous vehicles, electrical vehicles and shared vehicles are all three technologies that gained a lot of public attention and is being debated whether those technologies are going to be established in the market or if they are just another trend that will disappear after a few years have passed. Moreover, both technologies are perceived quite different by many and are also controversial from many perspectives as all three technologies but especially, autonomous vehicles seem for many sceptics very unrealistic and too futuristic.

Nevertheless, EV’s had quite a strong impact on the automobile industry and on consumer worldwide. EV’s were “revived” and gained a lot of attention in 2008 by Tesla. The very first EV’s however, have been around since the 19th century. GM even had a leasing program around 1996 with electrical vehicles. Unfortunately, the battery technology was still at the beginning of its developments and were not equipped for longer distances, as well as the infrastructure such as charging stations, was not developed at all. With new battery technology, Tesla reignited the EV market.

Other manufacturers have since followed Tesla by introducing their own electrical vehicles. The Chinese city Shenzhen electrified 2018 their entire bus fleet that was in total at that time 16,359 vehicles. The number of EV’s that have been sold, surpassed in 2019 the two million mark. Mainland China is the number one leader in EV’s sold, followed by the USA and Germany. It is forecasted, that EV sales will reach by 2030, 25 million sold vehicles. (Mehta, Hamke, and Senn 2020)

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Autonomous vehicles are currently researched and developed further and heavily invested in. (OECD Publishing 2019) The global leader in autonomous driving, Google launched in 2017 their self-driving unit called Waymo. Its autonomous vehicles already have driven twenty million miles (around 32 million kilometers) on public roads. Moreover, Tesla also runs many tests and R&D in the autonomous-driving area. However, there are also other technology and car manufacturing companies that are developing autonomous cars. The following figure shows the different companies and other key data. (Mehta, Hamke, and Senn 2020)

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Figure 46: Overview on autonomous vehicle models, (Mehta, Hamke, and Senn 2020)

The attitude regarding autonomous vehicles is additional to a functioning technology very important to consider and to educate customers and potential customers about the technology behind the vehicle and have a transparent communication. Overall in the U.S. the acceptance and the attitude are more positive than in most European countries such as Ger- many. (Mehta, Hamke, and Senn 2020)

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Shared vehicles are a great solution for over-populated cities, too high emissions levels and road congestion. (Horx et al. 2018a) Shared mobility and electrified vehicles go hand in hand and shared vehicles are simply suited better as EV’s, due to the lower operational costs and the longer total utilization. (Mehta, Hamke, and Senn 2020)

Especially, cities could favor from shared mobility not only because of environmental factors but also in favor of congestion rates and space reasons. China is also the worldwide leader in car sharing availability but in general Asian countries are overall leaders in carsharing usage and providers. (Horx et al. 2018a)

4.2 Impact Factors

Additional to the PESTEL Analysis there are also other “impact” or influencing factors that the author considered those should be seen apart from the PESTEL Analysis and analyzed separately. The impact factors are not directly linked to the analysis since they cannot be categorized into solely one factor or one category. Additionally, the thesis contains the recent out brake of the pandemic COVID 19, which posed certain threats to influencing factors for mobility. Moreover, there are also other factors that influence mobility and especially, innovations in this field such as autonomous vehicles, IoT et cetera, that are very difficult to monitor or to have them analyzed. Technology acceptance is such a factor. However, it is really difficult to measure technology acceptance for rather new technologies or products that are not available to the mass yet. Also, the literature reaches its limits as there is no substantial data available yet.

Cyber Security Cyber Security is a very important and crucial factor for mobility and for the new systems that are being used or are in the process of being implemented. Not only mobility and the sphere of mobility is affected by cyber threats but also all relating components to mobility are at risk, especially, those that use ICT systems. In the European Union transportation networks are critical infrastructure and are crucial for the maintenance of safety, health social and economic well-being as well as security for European Union citizens. However, the effective operation of such transportation networks and the increasing levels of traffic poses quite a few vulnerabilities. Moreover, the technological innovation and developments play a major role in the cyber security of mobility, as with the increase in digital technologies and systems also Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS) emerge and those pose great risks if there are no measures and policies taken. By the introduction of more ICT into mobility and especially into public transportation through networked devices and also the expansion of control capabilities and remote access coupled with linking different operators together, the exposure to cyber threats is extremely increased. (ENISA 2015)

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Especially, when it comes to mobility as a service, where a lot of personal data and financial data is stored can be a pain point for many users when such data is stolen or leaked. Data sharing and interoperability for MaaS poses great risks. Moreover, there is a fear that connected vehicles as well as self-driving vehicles have the security gap of being exploited or hacked. (Nash et al. 2017)

o Types of threats There are generally a few different types of threats that can be a risk for the end user, manufacturer, service provider and even governments or local institutions that are involved with vulnerable mobility systems. The different types of threats are physical attacks, environmental incidents, accidental errors and malfunctions, criminal activity, outages, unintentional damages and insider threats. The following table is based on (ENISA 2015) research.

Threat type Key threat Unintentional damage Operator error User error Mismanagement Configurational error Insider threats Data theft Information leak Selling confidential data to competition Criminal activity DDoS Malicious viruses Phishing Hacking into systems (connected systems, wireless systems) Data breach Disclosure of confidential data Exploitation of vulnerabilities Physical attacks Terrorism (attacks on critical infrastructure) Data theft Unauthorized access to infrastructure and systems Environmental incidents Natural and environmental disasters Accidental errors and malfunctions Hardware or software malfunction Loss of critical information Configuration error Outages Disruption of electrical supply or frequency Strike

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o Vulnerabilities and risks ICT’s create many benefits in the mobility and critical infrastructure area, but they also increase the vulnerabilities in the systems. The interference or exploitation of vulnerabilities can result in devastating outcomes. Therefore, it is crucial to know the vulnerabilities of a system and develop countermeasures and stable policies. (Nash et al. 2017)

The vulnerabilities in critical infrastructure ICT range from common IT systems vulnerabilities to more specific ones such as wireless communication, cyber-physical systems, incon- sistencies in technologies and no measures or policies put in place, access to real-time data, online services with passenger data and a multitude of other vulnerabilities and loopholes. The risks of cyber-attacks on mobility systems are a myriad of risks for businesses, society, governments and citizens. The main risks are on the privacy and confidentiality of passenger’s data, real-time data, tracking data and real-time movement data. Unavaila- bility of critical infrastructure services, which can subsequently lead to the disruption of other interconnected and interdependent systems. (ENISA 2015)

o Challenges Cyber security in any sector or area of business is very difficult and almost no system is fault free. Moreover, cyber security is often a very underrated topic in many companies or institutions and cyber budget is only then approved when already a cyber incident hap- pened. Therefore, most systems have vulnerabilities and can be exploited and cause irrep- arable damages. (Nash et al. 2017)

The biggest challenge is the lack of knowledge and expertise in many companies but also a sense of importance for cyber security is lacking and inadequate budget for cyber security is set. Additionally, also the inadequate or wrongful checking for countermeasures clearly shows the state of many companies and institutions and their reluctancy to invest in cyber security.

The following figure shows the how cyber security implementations are measured for their effectiveness. Not only the lack of knowledge but also the low awareness for cyber threats and especially, the resistance to implement security systems or introduce new cyber security measures because they are deemed unnecessary. Overall, weak policies, no leadership, reluctancy to change and to implement security measures contribute to having vulnerable systems and giving easy access to intruders. (ENISA 2015)

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Figure 47: Measuring Effectiveness in Cyber Security Measures, (ENISA 2015)

COVID Crisis The COVID Crisis is one of the impact factors that cannot be foreseen and is a factor that impacts the entire framework of PESTEL. Epidemics, pandemics were always risk factors however, such worldwide spread viruses are not something anyone is quite prepared for. When the virus that emerged in China 2019 and was declared a global pandemic by March 2020 everything changed and also affected quite drastically urban transportation and mobility in general.

The number of people using public transportation has decreased enormous, taxis have seen the highest decrease in passenger traffic and new safety measures had to be taken for those who had to use public transportation. However, challenging times require new measures and the development or usage of technologies and digital products or services. Also, in the mobility sector this was the case. The ticketing was made in many regions available also digitally via a mobile application. Last mile freight transportation and distribution turned out to be a crucial part of delivering food, groceries and other goods directly to households. In many areas in Europe flexible timetables for public transportation were also implemented. (Mehta, Hamke, and Senn 2020)

However, many mobility sharing providers such as ride-sharing provider like Uber or Lyft and also micro-mobility such as e-scooter-sharing, or bike-sharing had to stop providing their services in many areas. Public transportation also had quite a decline in the number

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On the other hand, freight transportation increased drastically during the crisis and many traditional companies had to adapt to the current market and implement online shops or click and collect services. In general e-commerce has seen a drastic increase and will continue to increase. Especially, in the mobility sector MaaS becomes a very important tool to be able to provide even during a pandemic transportation to passengers that allow for con- tactless transactions, flexibility and controlling passenger flows. Also, micro-mobility has received a lot of attention by various decision-makers as shared bikes and e-scooter, can help to provide a safe transportation especially, within cities. Overall, walking, bike-usage and vehicle usage have increased during the pandemic quite a lot. Cycling was even worldwide the most used form of transportation since the lockdowns started in March and April. However, bicycles cannot reach very far destination in a short period of time. Thus, many countries are evaluating drones that have the capability of reaching far-away destinations. (MELLÁR, PERNICE, and VÁCLAVOVÁ 2020)

4.3 Summary

Summed up it can be said that the PESTEL framework provides a great overview of all the important influencing factors for mobility and its entire ecosystem. Additional to PESTEL there are also other influencing factors that have to be considered. The political situation in Europe is relatively stable and has no major issues or troubles. Moreover, the political situation can be measured by the corruption perception index, press freedom index, index of political stability and absence of violence, which are in Europe, compared to other regions, quite low and in general Europe is ranked quite high globally. Moreover, investments in mobility and patents in mobility are both on the rise and public as well as private investors are investing in this sector. Also, patents for new technologies in mobility and new systems are quite high.

Moreover, the economic situation is in Europe also very stable but the COVID crisis was a setback for most countries on a global level. Furthermore, the social and ecological factor as well as the technological factor are further developing, and both go hand in hand as the sustainability factor becomes more important and technology is focusing on improving environmental issues as well as be sustainable. Here innovation plays a great role as it can help to tackle many different issues and help to adapt in times of crisis. Unforeseen and influencing factors such as the COVID crisis and cyber security have a great impact on mobility and on all systems involved.

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5 The rise of new Services amid the shift in mobility

The fifth chapter of the thesis provides the reader with insights into what new services and service provider could arise within the next five years. The author included the most important services and service provider that are needed in the years to come. New services and associated provider will evolve and arise over the years. The services and service provider are based on the previous research in chapter three and four, as those services have the focus on technologies and solutions that are gaining extremely in popularity by the masses and also by researcher and companies such as autonomous driving, EV’s, MaaS and sharing concepts.

Thus, also the servitization part of new technologies and mobility concepts are extremely important to consider. However, the author does not aim to give a complete list of all services and service provider that are expected to be introduced on the market, but the most important ones based on the previous mentioned research. The charging stations in this chapter are solely regarding public charging stations and not private stations.

5.1 Charging stations

Electrical vehicles have become the last few years quite popular. Many car manufacturer and governments are focusing on EV’s due to environmental factors and CO2 standards that require vehicle manufacturer to have on average up to 10% sales shares from EV’s in 2021. In the new climate neutral policy scenario, by 2030 around 44 million EV’s should be on the streets. However, the electric charging infrastructure is still very underdeveloped. Not only the number of charging points is important, but also the quality, location and the form of operation of the entire infrastructure plays a key role. By 2025 it is prognosed that there are around 1.3 million public chargers in Europe. The highest number of EV charging points in Europe is in the Netherlands, Belgium, Sweden, Austria and Poland. (T&T 2020)

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Figure 48: Increasing number of public chargers, (T&T 2020)

The charging infrastructure has to be as easy and comfortable as possible in order to have an additional incentive for users. Thus, many investments and a Europe-wide as well as country-wide strategy has to be implemented. EV charging points have to be available 24/7, fair and transparent prices have to be available, easy payment, interoperability needs to be possible and guaranteed. (T&T 2020) Moreover, social fairness has to be considered when charging points are planned and overall a good distribution needs to be established. (Statista 2020c) Additionally, all interaction points of citizens have to be considered when developing a infrastructure for charging points. (T&T 2020)

§ Home and workplaces should provide the possibility of EV charging and the “right to plug” should be given. § Commercial places have to equip a fifth of available parking spots for EV charging stations § Charging in cities have to provide fast chargers in order to include urban deliveries by EV’s. Moreover, to prioritize electric as well as shared mobility in cities also taxis and ride-hailing services should be electrically powered. § Intercity road networks. This ensures that charging in towns as well as villages and remote areas.

For the different areas of interaction and needs also the suitable charger has to be put in place. There are four different categories of public chargers.

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§ Single phase AC chargers, have the capacity of charging an EV within the period of 7 to 16 hours § Tri-phase AC chargers, are able to charge an EV within 2 to 4 hours § Fast DC chargers, charges in 30 to 40 minutes an EV § Ultra-fast DC chargers, are able to charge an EV within only 10 to 20 minutes The following figure shows the breakdown of European countries public EV chargers.

Figure 49: Public EV chargers in European countries, (T&T 2020)

The size of the global market in 2019 and estimated in 2026 for EV’s. In 2019, the global market size is around 115 billion US Dollars and in 2026, the market size should be at 567,2 billion US dollars. As more and new European Union standards and policies are introduced and put into place policymakers and technology providers need to focus also on surrounding infrastructure that is necessary and distribute the spending accordingly. (Statista 2020c)

5.2 Battery recycling

Due to more electrical vehicles and the high usage of batteries it has become clear that a sustainable and environmentally friendly solution for battery disposal and recycling needs to be found. Especially, as circular economy is increasingly important for governmental

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institutions and for companies. As most companies’ CSR often contain social responsibility values and objectives that give an indication about the company’s direction regarding their environmental goals and views. Due to the efforts of decarbonizing mobility especially, the road transport ecosystem, EV’s present a great alternative. (Beaudet et al. 2020) Currently, the most common form of powering EV’s is by lithium-ion batteries. Based on the projected increase in market and sales shares of EV’s on the world market, also it can be expected that battery production and usage will increase. However, after the batteries have reached the end of their lifespan the question raises, what happens to that huge amount of lithium- ion batteries? (Drabik and Rizos 2018)

The projected number of EV batteries that will reach their end of live and will be available for recycling by 2030, is expected to be over 1,000,000 batteries only in Europe. Worldwide it is forecasted to be over 5 million metric tons. Thus, the aftermarket for battery recycling is immense and needs its own infrastructure in order to provide also a sustainable and considerate towards raw material extraction. (Statista 2020c)

Figure 50: Forecasted number of EV batteries, (Statista 2020c)

The lithium-ion battery recycling is still quite at its beginning stage and needs to be prepared and developed for the future. Even if there are already a few solutions for battery recycling, there needs to be a strategic approach to be able to tackle the amounts of batteries that need to be recycled. Furthermore, greenhouse emissions that come from EV’s are mostly related to the manufacturing of batteries and the extraction of raw materials. This can be partly resolved by recycling batteries in order to avoid the extraction and refining of virgin material. However, with the current recycling processes up to 51 percent of an initial lifecycle is lost. The following figure shows the lifecycle of LIB’s from manufacturing, to its usage and to the end of life. (Beaudet et al. 2020)

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Figure 51: Lifecycle of LIB's

Thus, it can be expected that there will be a huge amount of LIB’s from scrapped cars and prepared for recycling and subsequently recover valuable materials. A huge amount of batteries will be converted into second life applications for example in a storage application. (Baltac and Slater 2019)

There are still a few challenges that have to be overcome such as the refurbishment costs of the batteries as well as the quality of the batteries after they have been recycled, its safety as well as the remaining lifespan that have been refurbished. The recycling of batteries surely needs to be considered respective to the circular economy principles. (Beaudet et al. 2020)

However, the entire process of collecting, processing and finally recycling LIB is not only challenging from an economic point of view but also technically. In order to reuse and re- furbish batteries efficiently there need to be developed at least solid policies and stable strategies as well as new innovations in these areas. (Drabik and Rizos 2018)

5.3 Repair shops for sharing vehicles

The overall global aftermarket industry is projected to have growth rate of around 3% all through the year 2030. The business models of car dealerships and workshops is expected to shift, especially towards different distribution channels. Especially via e-commerce. Over- all, services and especially diagnostics are projected to grow exponentially.

It is expected that there will be an aggressive expansion in the aftermarket by OEM’s, the consolidation of many parts distributors. One of the biggest impacts of the aftermarket activities is the overall digitization of various channels and interfaces as well as the access to

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vehicle-generated data and the increasing influence of various digital intermediaries. Digi- tal-related revenues are one of the biggest parameters in the aftermarket industry that will increase exponentially. (Breitschwerdt et al. 2017) The stakeholder in the current aftermarket are: (Breitschwerdt et al. 2017)

§ Parts manufacturer includes, among other OEMs, aftermarket parts manufacturer and automotive suppliers. § Parts distributors compromise, independent distributors, OEMs’ own distributor network, buying groups and online retailer § Workshops are auto centers, small garages, system chains and also includes OEMs’ network of workshops § Intermediaries includes, leasing companies, automobile clubs, insur- ances, routing portals § End customer can be either private, fleet market or business

Currently most of the stakeholder are not prepared for a digital future and need to prepare strategically and from a skill-set point of view on the future market. (Heineke et al. 2020)

The aftermarket does however not only apply to vehicles but also to shared micro mobility. Thus, also workshops need to incorporate micro mobility in their service portfolio. It is also expected, that completely new players or the micro mobility provider will enter the aftermarket specialized on micro mobility and create a new business model for this particular industry. The aftermarket for micro mobility includes battery recycling and swapping, digital interfaces, flexible payment provider, fast and easy repair including digital sales channels and communication channels. (Holm Møller et al. 2020)

The largest revenue share in the automotive aftermarket is represented by the wear-and- tear parts, followed by crash relevant part. Services and diagnostics products have a rather lower revenue share but are expected to increase exponentially. Furthermore, as road and vehicle safety has gained a lot of attention over the years and is projected to be improved drastically, the crash-relevant parts will decrease in revenue share. (Breitschwerdt et al. 2017)

The shared micro mobility market potential by 2030 is expected in Europe to reach roughly between 100 and 150 billion Dollar. This indicates that more and more aftermarket services will arise in this industry. The United States has the largest estimated size of micro mobility market and should reach by 2030 around 200 to 300 billion Dollars.(Heineke et al. 2020)

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Figure 52: Micro mobility market potential by 2030, (Heineke et al. 2020)

However, a great share of the current players in the existing industry structure, whether they are in the automotive industry or the shared micro mobility industry are not well enough prepared for the future demands, which can be attributed to the lack of digitization resources and lack of strategic focus. This requires thorough strategic planning and focus on innovative products and services. (Breitschwerdt et al. 2017)

5.4 Payment service providers

With shared mobility, autonomous vehicles, MaaS also payment service provider have to provide easy and flexible solutions for users. The traditional mobility business models are being challenged by new players on a daily basis. (UNECE 2020) New breakthroughs in technology and innovation allow vehicles to not only be electric, connected, and more autonomous there are also a few challenges that have to be solved in order to provide use- centric services and excel in those fields. Moreover, many vehicles and micro-mobility vehicles are turning increasingly into digital platforms. The services provided over those vehicles can reach from payments for parking and tolls to completely new types of services. (Lettow and Roskosch 2018)

However, as it is the case in many other areas of mobility many car manufacturer, intermediaries and other stakeholder are not prepared for those new digital requirements and have to strategically focus on the future. (UNECE 2020) The areas of required payment service providers are: (Goodall et al. 2017)

§ MaaS, for in-app purchases such as pay-as-you-go or subscription- based models.

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§ In-vehicle services, could include various maintenance services, additional services that can be booked (unlocking various in-vehicle services) and payment of tolls § Charging payments, payments of electric vehicle charging should be as easy and flexible as possible in order to be able to process payments directly out of the vehicle § Shared-vehicles payments includes fast and easy payment for the charging rate, subscription and other payment models, that are provided.

What does proper payment technology enable? (Lettow and Roskosch 2018) § Convenience: By providing payment technologies that enables easy, flexible and seamless payment without having to enter, every time a transaction has to be made, all the payments details § Multisided markets: Since more interdependent groups are brought together in a digital platform for mobility and a multitude of customer touchpoints are involved it becomes quite complex but by providing adequate payment service in an e-commerce environment, easy payment can be ensured § Authentication: With the introduction of biometric components payments can be done even easier and more secure

The revenues of MaaS segments in Europe from 2017 up to 2025 were quite substantial and are expected to increase further. This indicates that also the transactions being made are of importance and should be provided as easy and flexible as possible. (Statista 2020d)

Figure 53: Revenue of MaaS market in Europe, (Statista 2020d)

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Hereby, the question arises, how to securely incorporate payments services in the vehicles and the respective applications and booking systems. Here the backend security plays a very important role. This is also important in order to convey trust and a feeling of security for the user. (Lettow and Roskosch 2018)

5.5 Summary

Concluding it can be said the aftermarket will change and will have to adapt to new technological requirements and overall new services develop and emerge. As new services emerge also new players arise in the market. The need for new solutions in the aftermarket industry calls for new innovations and accordingly new providers.

Due to the increase in EV’s also a suitable infrastructure is required and has to be provided. Charging stations will not only increase in demand but also in importance. An entire infrastructure has to be planned with the exponential increase in EV’s and various interaction points with users are necessary to be considered. By the increase in EV’s also lithium-ion batteries are demanded increasingly. Subsequently, when the LIB’s reach the end of life, they have to be either reused or recycled. This demands its own infrastructure and process.

Moreover, sustainability is a big factor and reason why new concepts are developed, MaaS and car-sharing services are already used in many European cities and they also require repair shops and garages for these types of micro vehicles, so that this concept can fit in the circular economy concept.

With all the new models created in the mobility industry, payment service providers are becoming very important and give the user the necessary flexibility and solves a major customer pain point.

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6 Scenario Analysis – Theoretical Framework

The future is in general characterized by complexity, as developments and changes are connected with multilayered interaction which runs partly continually and partly disruptive. Thus, the future is inherently shaped by uncertainty and incertitude. Potentially there are always more, varying future paths possible however by the selection or implementation of one singe future path alternative paths are being excluded and at the same time a multitude of possible pathways are being unveiled. Therefore, it is useful to define the future in a plural form since the future is also characterized by ambivalence, as different developments have often or most of the time a different impact on the outcome.

In light of the increasing complexity and uncertainty of the societal and environmental framework conditions such as globalization, climate change, geopolitical risks and conflicts as well as technological upheaval it is more necessary than ever to take decisions based on a proactive approach as well as have a future-oriented framework. (Jamrisko, Lu, and Tanzi 2021)

It is quite common in the in operational practice to predict general trends and special developments as well as occurrences. In this context, experts often state and assess regarding certain trends and developments where the future leads to or where it could lead to. Those assessments are often taken by third parties into consideration for the strategic future planning. However, it is rare to find a proper derivation of the statements and assessments, even critical discussions of the forecasts are very often missing. When based on statements of experts or self-proclaimed experts, investments are made or structures of the public life or the industry are being changed etc. then the reliability of the predicted scenarios should be challenged and questioned. Irresponsible actions could mean far-reaching consequences and long-term decisions that are often irreversible, the risk of an error could have a fatal aftermath.

Nevertheless, many companies neglect to preoccupy themselves with such important considerations and they focus only on short-term strategies. Companies and entire industries have failed to acknowledge certain megatrends of the future and compromised or even destroyed their existence in the process such as the photographic industry, consumer elec- tronics and so on. Alongside an increase in efficiency also the safeguard of the future of a company can be ensured by not only product innovation, brand management, licenses and patents, investments in technology, but also the development and the adaptation of innovative and new business models. The gradual deterioration of traditional business models and the emergence of new trends and movements or part of it can be identified beforehand. This helps to identify and analyze future advancements and countermeasures can be

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introduced. Accordingly, the scenario method gains more and more importance for companies and whole industries. (Wolf, Zerres, and Zerres 2013)

6.1 Definition

According to the business and crisis consultant Ute von Reibnitz, a scenario can be interpreted as the description of a future situation and the development or the illustration of a road that shows the way from today up to the future. A scenario method or scenario analysis can be understood as a form of planning technique which creates and develops usually two clear and distinct but consistent scenarios/future scenarios for companies, entire areas and even individuals. However, it is necessary to point out that a scenario never raises a claim or presumes an exact prediction of the future but rather provides a selection of possible manifestations or versions of the future. (von Reibnitz 1992)

Two essential elements of the scenario method are being emphasized by the author Gause- meier in his definition of the scenario analysis. Accordingly, a scenario can be understood as a systematically devised future scenario, whose development is based on both core principles “networked thinking” and “multiple future”. (Gausemeier 2004)

• “Networked thinking”: Companies and public sections are part of a whole system and are therefore set out to a complex net of contributing factors. This network is continuously growing in the context of the advancing globalization and technological advancements. Hence, interdependencies of separated functional areas, market segment etc. increasingly gain more significant roles and thus must be considered within management processes. (Gausemeier 2004)

• “Multiple future”: Multiple future means, that a company has to consider and incorporate alternative development prospects due to the difficult predictability of the future. (Gausemeier 2004)

Generally, it can be distinguished between quantitative and qualitative types of scenarios. However, in the operational practice various combinations are frequently designed in order to ensure the highest outcome on insights as possible. (Wolf, Zerres, and Zerres 2013)

6.2 Origin

The notion “scenario” was characterized by Herman Kahn, who developed in the 50’s, strategic military games planning games in order to train the commanders of the American army. However, the term originated within the Italian theater, scenario is described as a summary or synopsis of a theatrical piece and give an overview of the sequence within a

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plot. Kahn’s scenarios, however, were descriptions of various battlefields situations whereby military planner had to operate in a reasonable manner in order to secure the victory. The military hypothesis about the future had predominant visionary character. Thus, it is not taken into account how the framework was manifested or more specifically how it developed out of the present. Kahn then transcribed the scenario method into commercial language. Later on, he founded a team of futurologists and strategists and subsequently the institution “Hudson Institute”, which helped not only governmental organizations but also private organizations to developed various projects based on hypothetical scenarios, system analyses etc. (von Reibnitz 1992)

Nevertheless, until the beginning of the seventies it was usual and sufficient within the strategic business planning to work with classic forecasts. Those forecasts were enough at that time due to very little change such as technological change, societal change etc. Only by the oil crisis and the economic impact it had the scenario method was rediscovered. One of the pioneers in future business planning was the Shell-Group who tried approximately one year before the outbreak of the crisis, to include increasingly qualitative aspects and alternatives in the planning method, out of discomfort concerning the quantitative oriented planning methodology. After the oil crisis it became more and more popular to create scenarios. The first users were those who have been affected the most by the oil crisis and those sectors were petroleum companies, chemical industry and the automotive industry. (von Reibnitz 1992)

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6.3 The scenario funnel

The development of alternative scenarios can be visualized based on a scenario funnel. The scenario funnel in this research is based on the scenario funnel of author and crisis consultant Ute von Reibnitz.

Figure 54: Scenario Funnel, von Reibnitz 1992

The point of the funnel symbolizes the present, the wider part of the funnel represents the increasingly complexity and uncertainty in the process of time. Considering the present situation, certain factors are apparent, which influence the industry and are also specified. Those factors have a certain structure that are determinable, and their influence can be used shortly for present activities. When those factors are projected onto the near future, only minor changes can be noticed but significant changes cannot be observed, as those parameters only apply for a short period of time, of around two to three years. For a far- reaching extrapolation of the surrounding circumstances it becomes impossible to predict how it will advance, which new factors will appear and which consequences they will have. (von Reibnitz 1992)

If one would make a cut through the funnel at a to be defined point in time then all thinkable, theoretical and possible future scenarios on the cut surface of the funnel. Figure 2 that

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depicts the scenario funnel shows the exemplary scenario types which are the extreme scenario A, trend scenario and the extreme scenario B.

• Trend scenario:

When updating contemporary trends into the future it results in a trend scenario. Thereby, it is supposed that the current course will continue straight forward without any radical changes. This so-called trend extrapolation is just for short termed forecasting period relevant. The longer the period to be assessed is, the more improbable and thus unreliable the results and the outcome become. (Wolf, Zerres, and Zerres 2013)

• Extreme scenarios:

At the edges of the funnels cross-section, extreme scenarios emerge. The literature provides very often the notions and the terminology “Best-Case-Scenario” and “Worst-Case- Scenario”. However, those terms have quite different connotations and a very strong valuation character. It is always dependent on the viewers perspective whether the specific scenario is a positive or a negative connotation. Additionally, it could be possible that certain future scenarios are seen as negative scenarios however, after thorough considerations the scenarios could contain however opportunities and benefits or contrary those scenarios that are perceived as positive scenarios could be negative and hide risks. (Kosow and Gaßner 2008) For this reason, the scenarios on the margin of the funnel are indicated as extreme scenario A and extreme scenario B. Although, it would be unaccountable to presume that the extreme scenarios based on their notion and their positions in the funnel, constitute exaggerations and therefore improbable future alternatives. Any elements of the funnel have their raison d'être as possible forms of the future. Outright improbable scenarios are being excluded.

The figure 2 shows three different scenarios. Indeed, it is possible to create a multitude of different future scenarios for certain issues. The more scenarios are generated the higher the complexity and creates potentially a lot of confusion. After all, the purpose of the scenario analysis is to implement the drawn conclusion in the strategic planning. That is why in practice it is usual and recommendable to have between three and a maximum of five scenarios. (Wolf, Zerres, and Zerres 2013)

The author Ute von Reibnitz recommends the conceptualization of only two scenarios, whereby one trend scenario as per the authors opinion, superfluous is. Von Reibnitz, explained her point of view based on the fact that a linear trend continuity would be unlikely and also because the Shell Group, who was among the first to apply the scenario method, also created only two different future scenarios, before the oil crisis in the year 1973. The authors opinion and first argument can be agreed with, that trend scenarios are unsuitable

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for long-term forecasts in the strategic planning process. The second argument von Reibnitz stated, is however flawed because the Shell-group only created two trend scenarios in the first-time development of future scenarios but the following years the corporation regularly created and further developed four trend extrapolations. (von Reibnitz 1992)

This thesis will provide an insight into three different future scenarios the same way figure 2 shows with a trend scenario, extreme scenario A and an extreme scenario B. In this research the created scenarios are based on trend extrapolation.

6.4 The process of a scenario analysis

The scenario analysis proceeds a defined series of phases. However, those phases are in the literature very differently defined, from author to author. Some have defined up to eight (von Reibnitz 1992) phases they work with and other authors or strategic planner like to define and work with only four to five steps. (Kosow and Gaßner 2008)

This scenario analysis conducted in the course of this thesis, is based on the phase model of Jürgen Gausemeier as a reference model. However, only miniscule changes have been made when it was necessary for the specifics of the research topic. Thus, the following procedure resulted:

• Phase 1: Task Analysis / Scenario Preparation

The task analysis or also called the scenario preparation is the first phase of the scenario analysis and the first step is to define the field of design. The definition is the result from the specific critical question that should answer the scenario analysis. (Gausemeier 2004) The design field should be at first described in its current situation. (von Reibnitz 1992)

• Phase 2: Scenario-field Analysis

The scenario field is fragmented in spheres of influence such as economic, social, legal or technological influencing spheres. For every sphere it is necessary to develop precise influencing factors. (Gausemeier 2004) Those factors owing to their overly descriptive nature can be designated also as “descriptors” and they can be trends, certain numbers, topics, incidents et cetera. (Kosow and Gaßner 2008)

• Phase 3: Scenario forecasting

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horizon and then it is determined if there is an explicit and verifiable development to be noticed or if there is uncertainty. Secondly, it is necessary to show alternatives and describe them. (Gausemeier 2004)

• Phase 4: Consistency Assessment

The fourth phase is the consistency assessment, this phase of the scenario analysis should develop conclusive scenarios derived from the already created projections. This step provides additionally combinations of projections which would fit together very well. (Gausemeier 2004)

6.5 Performance criteria of the developed scenarios

The scenario analysis provides flexibility and sophistication in the decision-making process as well as a better adaptability regarding possible modifications in the future. (Kosow and Gaßner 2008)

For this purpose, certain quality criteria have to be fulfilled (Wolf, Zerres, and Zerres 2013):

• Scenarios should contain relevant information for the decisions that will be made. It is decisive to have a proper formulated question at the beginning of the process.

• Every scenario has to be rigorous and consistent in order to have credibility.

• Furthermore, the scenarios have to be realistic and plausible and they have to com- ply with the requirements of the logical principles.

• Every scenario should be probable and also be considered as a possible alternative.

• Scenarios have to be distinguishable in the structure and quality from one another. Only this way, it is possible to call for imagination and anticipate unexpected events.

• Lastly, the scenarios should be easily remembered. The narrative presentation, as well as the principle to limit the scenarios to three up to five scenarios contribute to remember the scenarios easily. By doing so this eventually results to the benefit of the scenario method, with the scope of complexity reduction, to understand matters better and make them more tangible which again makes the communication easier.

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6.6 Disturbance incidents

When a complete scenario analysis is conducted, it is necessary to take into account certain incidents which are quite unlikely to occur but when they are hypothetically occurring, those incidents usually have tremendous consequences. “In some cases, the disruptive events may not change the basic forecast much, if at all; but in other cases, they may shift the forecast considerably, possibly creating significantly different scenarios. No baseline forecast, in whatever form or generated by whatever featuring method, is complete without the due consideration of potential disruptive events.” (Millet 2011)

The benefit of the disruptive events analysis is that it uncovers the significant weaknesses and vulnerabilities of a company or a certain domain. (von Reibnitz 1992) Disruptive events or also labeled as “Wildcards” or “Black Swans”, are characterized by their difficult and almost impossible predictability. (Wolf, Zerres, and Zerres 2013)

What can also complicate the scenario analysis is that the disturbance incidents do not have to derivate from the direct object of investigation, but they can emerge from completely different areas. However due to their enormous impact they can have an impact on the object of investigation. (Gausemeier 2004) A rather prominent example for this is the financial crisis in 2008/2009, where the consequential damages of the real estate and financial economy of the United States of America emanated to the rest of the world. Direct and indirect consequences could be traceable in almost every industry. (Millet 2011)

6.7 Summary

The scenario method helps to generate various possible future scenarios not only for the strategic planning of companies but also for different areas and industries. The scenarios help companies and also decision-makers to provide an insight into the future and plan accordingly. Especially, the last few years change was quite ubiquitous and companies, decision-makers, marketers, lawmakers even entire industries and many others had to adapt to this constant change. It is essential to be prepared for these fast changes in technology, society and the market and already have an idea how and when business has to be adapted. Visionary power and thinking are prerequisites for intelligent and strategic planning, not only in business decisions or political decisions but also in the private life. This is why the scenario method is important to consider as a method and shows different angels of certain areas and industries.

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7 Scenario analysis of future urban mobility

Mobility has changed the past decades and years tremendously. Technological breakthroughs, new innovations and contemporary mobility concepts are defining the new era of urban transportation. The mobility industry will also change in the future and could take different directions than expected. In order to have an approximate direction of the urban mobility industry and its developments, a scenario analysis of the future of urban mobility helps to have guidance.

This scenario analysis is based on trend extrapolation and it focuses on three scenarios in total, the trend scenario, the extreme scenario A and extreme scenario B. There are many other possible scenarios besides the three scenarios formulated in this thesis. This discrep- ancy in scenarios is very common and is based on the parameter each author chooses to follow over the course of the research.

This chapter uses as a basis the previously done research and connects different insights. All data points and statistics can be found in the previous chapters.

7.1 Step 1: Task Analysis / Scenario Preparation

The first step in the scenario analysis is the task analysis and the preparation of the scenarios. The objective is to analyze the current situation of the research object. The task analysis is based on the research done in chapter two up to four and crucial statistics and data points are provided in those chapters.

Mobility in 2020 has already changed a lot and many different and new business models as well as technologies were implemented and brought into the current market. However, there are still a few technologies that are in the ongoing research and development stage that could have the potential to revolutionize the entire transportation and mobility market such as autonomous driving. The mobility market does not only consist of the traditional stakeholder anymore, but many new players have emerged on the market over the years and continue to grow exponentially. Especially, generated data from vehicles or becomes more important and valuable than ever. Thus, intermediaries are necessary for many different new services or technologies.

Traditional OEMs and vehicle dealer had for decades a quite stable market with the traditional combustion engine and the traditional services. New trends, technological breakthroughs and innovations are challenging traditional stakeholders in the market. However, not only the change in the stakeholder structure is quite visible but also customers’ needs change. Respectively, consumer need change from ownership to shared mobility and digital platform services. The sustainability trend has an increasingly importance for the

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mobility sector and new innovations and solution have to be developed in order to tackle the issues of congested cities, air pollution and overbuilt areas.

The research object can be summarized into a total of four parts, megatrends in urban mobility, technology and socio-cultural trends. Those trend groups provide a great insight into the current trends in mobility and society as well as technology. Moreover, the PESTEL framework is the last part of the research object and gives more in-depth information about the various factors that influence mobility long-term.

7.2 Step 2: Scenario-field Analysis

The scenario-field analysis assesses the spheres of influence on the research object. In this thesis the scenario-field analysis is mainly based on the PESTEL analysis that had been already conducted in previous chapters.

The influencing spheres are the political and legal factor, the economic factor, social and ecological factor and technological factor. An additional sphere of influence are megatrends. Megatrends includes urban mobility, technology and socio-cultural trends. Based on those influencing factors, a variety of different scenarios can be created and further developed. All the influencing factors are described and analyzed between the chapters two to four.

Influencing factor 1 - Society and consumer • Social and ecological factor Influencing factor 2 - Market and competition • Economics • Political and legal factor Influencing factor 3 - Megatrends • Urban mobility trends • Technology trends Influencing factor 4 - Technology • Innovations • Investments and patents

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7.3 Step 3: Scenario forecasting

In the third phase, the scenario forecasting, it is important to depict for every influencing factor, characteristic developments within a predefined time horizon. Those projections form the groundwork for every single future scenario. The first step is to describe the descriptor in its present state. Thereupon, it is required to project that descriptor onto the next time horizon and then it is determined if there is an explicit and verifiable development to be noticed or if there is uncertainty. Secondly, it is necessary to show alternatives and describe them if no clear development can be expected. (Gausemeier 2004)

The time horizon for the projections in this thesis, is 5 years. Specifically, this means the time horizon is projected to be by the year 2025. The longer the time period, the higher the probability that the scenarios will lose relevancy and become obsolete. (von Reibnitz 1992)

7.3.1 Influencing factor 1 – Society and consumer

- Social and ecological factor

The first influencing factor is based on the European social and ecological characteristics. European demographics is shifting to an aging population and society. Growth rates are at a halt whilst the older generation is increasing by the day. However, due to growing immi- gration levels the European population is still growing. Currently the European population has a growth rate of 0.06%, the worldwide percentage is at 1.05%.

However, current European citizens are moving more and more into the city centers. This is not a trend that can be seen only in Europe but on a global level. Megacities are becoming increasingly, popular and cities become completely new ecosystems with a myriad of different benefits for its inhabitants. With the increase in residents living in the city also the number of vehicles and battery powered micro mobility transportation is increasing. Subse- quently, the quality of live starts to decrease. Factors that reach from noise and air pollution, congestions to less green areas and lack of space contribute to the lower standards of living in cities. Not only citizens are affected by these developments, but the environment suffers. Thus, new innovative solutions have to be created and implemented in order to safeguard the environment and residents living in cities.

Projection:

The population has always been able to adapt to new conditions and different circumstances. New innovations and new concepts help to not only adapt to new situations and surroundings but to thrive and generate new forms of living und ultimately new forms of mobility. Moreover, also the environmental nature has been always changing and humans always had a negative impact on the climate and its natural resources. Nevertheless, new

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solutions, new concepts and innovation were created in order to preserve natural resources and minimize the negative impact of technology used in mobility and for the creation of mobility products and services. For the defined time horizon, drastic changes are rather unrealistic.

Projection Wildcard

A disturbance incident that could affect the entire social component of European citizens is not only whether or not the COVID-19 pandemic remains “uncontrollable” by governments and the European Union but also how policies are managed in the future by those parties. The pandemic in itself can be described as a disturbance incident but the aftermath is even more important to consider and to focus on. The impact of the global crisis can be observed in many different areas of live. For the social component the long-term consequences could be that many residents that lived previously in cities, tend to move to outskirts and rural areas. This happens due to the desire to have more space and freedom in a sense. Home office has been a burden on many families and couples that lived in small spaces within cities and to have the possibility of being able to have a greater personal freedom and a personal space is more desirable than to live in cities. However, this also varies often based on the age. The former applies more to the middle-aged part of the society. Younger generations tend to still move to the cities due to more possibilities for food deliveries, leisure activities and being able to still have more social contacts than in rural areas.

7.3.2 Influencing factor 2 – Market and competition

- Economics

European economics is based on a variety of different factors and indexes. The rate of globalization, overall economic growth as well as the infrastructure investments and maintenance. The economic health of Europe is quite stable from a global perspective and is expected to improve continuously. Even in face of the global pandemic the forecasts for the European economy and various indicators are expected to be quite good and improve the years to come and recover great from the crisis. Europe has worldwide the highest globalization index rates which means that the global partnerships, treaties and trade agreements are of enormous importance. However, this indicates also a high interdependency from other countries and stakeholders from different regions. Moreover, infrastructure investments in Eastern European are increasing and infrastructure maintenance rates also go up in central and northern parts of Europe. This subsequently means that underdeveloped mobility focus and strategies, in those parts of Europe receive increasingly more attention.

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Projection Alternative A

Instead of a higher globalization rate, the trend could shift to a more local focused economy model. This would really change the entire economy sphere and also the urban mobility spectrum. Such a change would mean that suppliers, manufacturers and intermediaries are being established within the European Union in order for Europe to be able to remain competitive and have a good ecosystem for the conception and production of products and services. The training and also hiring of local staff as well as the purchasing of local goods and services gain a completely new importance. Considering the projected time horizon of five years this scenario would not be possible let alone realistic. However, another form of local focused economy is nearshoring for specific products or services. This opposed form of globalization could gain a lot of attention by shifting towards a local focus economy ecosystem.

Projection Alternative B

The second alternative could be that the globalization rates increase even more than ever. Thus, new technologies and intermediaries from various different sectors (IoT, AI, Autono- mous cars) are more accessible also to the European market than ever before. This increases the competitiveness of the European market acting on a global level. Especially, for mobility the collaboration between different stakeholders and intermediaries is crucial in order to be able to create new solutions and technologies. A high globalization rate enables access to a new and unique technology stack, new concepts and potential for collaboration with experts in various areas of the mobility industry.

- Political and legal factor

The political and legal situation is in Europe quite neutral but surely with potential and room for improvements. Various indexes that demonstrate the political stability and the stability of public bodies and institutions, are very similar to one another when it comes to the Euro- pean region. The biggest discrepancies can be observed in the eastern European regions regarding political instability. Press freedom and corruption levels are overall quite bal- anced. Public investments in mobility are in the European Union compared to other global players very low. However, the total number of companies in mobility is in the EU very high. The European Union includes in its investment plans, also a clear focus on mobility investments and discloses that by 2025 around 73 billion EUR that should be invested. Investment plans by OEMs and private investors are also increasing and expected to increase in the ACES trends in particular. Moreover, patents give a good indication of the technologies and trends that are becoming increasingly important on the global market. Patent application for automotive drive technologies have increased enormously the last years. New tech

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companies have increasingly applied for patents in automotive and mobility concept software and traditional players in this market applied increasingly in hardware solutions.

Projection

The political and legal factor is quite unlikely to drastically change in the projected time horizon of 5 years. Thus, only minor changes in legislature and politics are expected to happen. Usually, changes in legislature and major political movements on a European Un- ion level, are very tedious and lengthy processes. This also applies for, new draft legisla- tions. For the time horizon applied, new legislature or major political incidents relevant to mobility are expected to be only minor.

7.3.3 Influencing factor 3 – Megatrends

- Urban Mobility

Urban mobility is transforming on a global level. The demand for new concepts and solutions can be observed clearly. The sharing and the subscription-based model are among the most predominant concepts in the mobility industry. However, also MaaS, the bike boom trend, micro mobility, and smart cities. Urban mobility trends could have the potential to change the entire sphere of transportation and passenger focused mobility. New concepts and trends emerge in face of the urgency and the need for change. Environmental improvements, livability in cities, improvement of traffic and general mobility. More and more players are entering the global and the European market with new concepts and new technologies in response to the demands for change. These developments could fundamentally change every aspect of mobility.

Projection Alternative A

The urban mobility trend could take a turn to creating a future of seamless mobility in towns and big cities. By creating new concepts and combining them with new technologies as well as with customer needs for flexibility and integration of transportation in daily lives. This coupled with a sustainable concept could really create a user-centric solution. Seamless mobility enables citizens to really travel efficient but comfortable and integrated in their daily lives. This concept, however, requires a few components from the smart cities approach due to the fact that mobility should really merge with city infrastructure and be an interdependent ecosystem.

Projection Alternative B

Based on demanded action for more sustainability the focus could easily shift into the direction of climate neutral transportation and leverage the bike boom trend, (local mobility)

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Technology trends

Technology trends and the further development of those trends really give a good outlook to the possibilities for the future of mobility. Autonomous driving, IoT, connected vehicles, AI, AR/MR et cetera enable new concepts for urban mobility and really disrupt current models of passenger transportation in cities. Autonomous driving, as well as AR is one of the technologies that is already used in vehicles. Autonomous driving is however not at its final stage but with more developments and breakthroughs in technology autonomous vehicles are increasing in viability.

Projection Alternative A

The development of new technologies and new concepts could really flourish and create a scenario based on a combination of those parameters. Autonomous, shared and connected transportation could be the future mobility. The proper combination of different solutions enables sustainable concepts, from every aspect, and those can subsequently really distinguish themselves from traditional or current mobility options.

Projection Alternative B

The development of new technologies could take another direction from creating innovative technologies to having the ultimate objective, creating sustainable technologies and climate neutral concepts for the mobility industry and for the end-user. However, this projection could almost be a wildcard since many innovative technologies are being developed and discarding them or completely change their intent would cause immense economic losses. This projection could be rather seen as a complement to alternative A and have a good combination of new and innovative technologies and sustainability.

7.3.4 Influencing factor 4 – Technology

- Innovations

Innovations are on the rise in Europe and it becomes quite clear that innovations are important not only to the economy or reputation but to increase the quality of life, be able to combat times of crisis effectively and provide new solutions and concepts to people and create user centered products, services and concepts that are also aligned with the concept of a circular economy and help to increase sustainability. Seven out of ten most innovative countries worldwide, are European countries, as ranked by the Bloomberg, Innovation In- dex.

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Projection

Innovations are in many cases an anticipated solution to a problem and it is expected that this will not change the next few years. There are many areas that are in need of innovation and specifically the ability of adaptation to new market dynamics, new customer needs and demands and new players on the market.

- Need for Cyber Security

Cyber security in mobility becomes incredibly important and gains at the moment a lot of awareness, due to an increase in hacks, leaks and overall cyber incidents. Mobility and every sphere connected to it, deals with sensitive data and IT systems contain various vulnerabilities and loopholes that can be exploited by hackers and cyber criminals. By means of phishing attacks, cyber criminals have a very high success rate in stealing and being able to leak data. Moreover, everyone is vulnerable to cyber incidents. This includes every industry, every business and even every citizen. Mobility, whether it is MaaS, in-vehicle services, public transportation applications or connected and autonomous vehicles, all of those technologies and concepts deal with personal information, payment data, movement pat- terns and sensitive personal data.

Projection

Cyber security in mobility has reached a momentum, with the increasing cyber-attack rates and data leaks in all industries, areas of business and even private citizens. Data has become a valuable good and needs to be protected in order to safeguard the data of people, critical data from companies and public institutions and also patents and construction data from companies. Therefore, it is expected that the awareness rises and gains in importance, especially by national leaders and even on the EU basis. The awareness for cyber threats and the need for cyber security is projected to increase indisputable the next five years.

7.4 Step 4: Consistency Assessment

The fourth phase is the consistency assessment, this phase of the scenario analysis should develop conclusive scenarios derived from the already created projections. Whereby, the individual projections have to be verified for the consistency and the compatibility to one another. That step provides additionally combinations of projections which would fit together very well. (Gausemeier 2004)

The scenarios are derived from the previous projections in the third step. Three scenarios are as follows:

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• Scenario A – “Seamless Mobility – Focus on cities” • Scenario B – “Autonomous, shared and connected mobility” • Scenario C – “Sustainable and local mobility”

Scenario A – “Seamless Mobility – Focus on cities”

The first scenario is a combination of different projections from the previous step in the scenario analysis. Seamless mobility with the focus on cities becomes a quite clear picture, derived from the various projections.

Specifically, the projection of the social and ecological factor, with the increase in residents that live in cities really demands a seamless mobility in order to generate and enable a higher livability in cities and towns with an increased citizen density. Combined with the influencing factor three, urban trends, and the projection alternative A, it shows that with new urban mobility trends also the need increases for a new focus on cities and its urgency for improvement.

Also, the projection of the influencing factor four with the sub-factor, innovations, really underlines that new innovations are created and combined with sustainability mobility could really make a difference. New concepts such as the MaaS enable the concept of seamless mobility and underlines the importance of creating integrated mobility options for users and for the city to run as effectively and efficient as possible. Moreover, the wildcard stated in

Scenario B – “Autonomous, shared and connected mobility”

The second scenario has the focus on technology and new concepts that can be introduced into cities and to potential users. This scenario is based on influencing factor two, with the sub-factor one and the projection alternative B, that depicts the increase in new technologies by having stable treaties and international partners due to globalization.

Moreover, the influencing factor three, sub-factor two and projection alternative A shows that the technology trends could have a great impact on the second scenario with the increase in new players in the field of technology, overall new technologies and the development of already existing technology.

Furthermore, the projection of the influencing factor four and sub-factor one gives an indication that the innovation level in Europe is quite high and it is expected that the upcoming years new products, services and concepts will emerge.

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Scenario C – “Sustainable and local mobility”

The final scenario has the focus on sustainability and local mobility. Ecological solutions and climate neutrality are already very important in all industries but especially in mobility. This trend will continue to develop and create additional urgency.

This scenario is supported by the projection of the influencing factor one and also the inclu- sion of the stated wildcard of having sustainable mobility and focus on local resources as well as lay the focus on local economies. Moreover, the influencing factor two, sub-factor one and the projection alternative A, really emphasizes the need for nearshoring and local products, workforce and solution.

Moreover, also political components are crucial for sustainable mobility by incentivizing ecofriendly production and focusing on ecological products, technologies and concepts.

Projection alternative B, from influencing facto three, urban mobility, shows also a trend towards increasing importance of environmentally friendly mobility and the urgency for creating eco-friendly solutions.

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8 Conclusion, Outlook and Limitations

“If I had asked people what they wanted, they would have said faster horses”. Tom Ford

Mobility was always a changing market and changing from a technological point of view. The entire sphere of mobility was always confronted by changing environments and major technological breakthroughs and developments of new concepts and services. This still applies to the year 2020 and further. Mobility will always change, and the focus is more than ever on the human factor and the convenience for the users.

The last chapter of this thesis answers the research questions and draws up the conclusion of the both questions. Additionally, in this chapter the outcome of the scenario analysis is outlined, and managerial implications are included. As mobility is a quite complex subject there are also a few limitations that come with this topic and areas for further research that have been identified, those are summarized in this chapter.

8.1 Answers of the research questions

This sub-chapter is dedicated to answer the stated research questions at the beginning of the thesis.

• RQ1: What trends in technology, new mobility concepts as well as society shifts, affect urban mobility? • RQ2: How could urban mobility change in Europe based on a scenario analysis?

8.1.1 Research Question 1 The research question 1 was treated in the chapters two and three of the thesis and also the chapter five. All three chapter provide insights into the various trends in technology, mobility concepts and also the shift in society. Moreover, future possible services were evaluated in chapter five. Part of the first research question can be answered quite simple, based on the following illustration.

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A major part of the new urban mobility are new technologies, new business models and concepts. New technologies are being developed constantly and evolve over the years. New technologies include autonomous vehicles, IoT, AI, AR and MR, V2V and alternative engines except for the combustion engine. All of the technologies have the capability to fundamentally change the entire mobility industry and completely new forms of transportation could emerge or could be combined with existing concepts in mobility.

The major technological innovations, breakthroughs or simply improvements, that will impact the mobility industry the next 5 to 10 years. Those technologies are, augmented reality and mixed reality, Artificial Intelligence, Autonomous Driving – certain levels of automation are expected to reach commercial vehicles, IoT and IoT ecosystems and also connected mobility.

New concepts in urban mobility enable a new approach to user-centric mobility and transportation. Especially, the seamless mobility concept can be unfolded by the integration of various concepts and technologies. This includes the bike boom trend and its combination with a modal split in cities. The sharing principle, that includes carsharing and ridesharing also helps to redefine urban mobility. New service providers are being established not only in European cities but worldwide. Moreover, the subscription-based model also revolution- izes urban mobility in cities all over the world. Micro mobility is also one of the concepts that has already been introduced to many cities in Europe and increases in use by a multitude

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of customers. Altogether, the new technologies, concepts and the socio-cultural needs for more livable cities, enables increasingly smart cities.

The socio-cultural trends include the ecological trends, that also briefly includes the movement “Friday for Future” and is about the increasing need and demand for climate neutral solutions. Furthermore, “Status Symbol Car” is one of the trends from a socio-cultural perspective and shows that the shifts go from ownership of vehicles to sharing and subscription models. Megacities and the urbanization trend have a tremendous effect on mobility as more people than ever are moving to cities and this subsequently demands for new solutions for the transportation of a huge number of citizens. The last socio-cultural trend that affects mobility, that is included in this research is the aging population that requires flexible and user-centric mobility options that are suitable for elderly.

All the trends in technology, new mobility concepts and socio-cultural trends, are the basis for new services that emerge and attract new players on the market. New services could be charging stations for EV’s as they are demanded more and more with the increase in EV’s in the European market. Moreover, battery recycling will become a crucial service with the increase in LIB use by the EV market and also micro mobility market. With the increase in shared vehicles require fast and flexible repair or overall maintenance services in cities. Furthermore, payment service provider also improves the experience of users of new mobility concepts and unlock completely new potentials for in-vehicle services or vehicle-to- infrastructure communication.

Surely, not all influencing factors, trends, new technology or business models are included in this thesis. However, the most important trends and technologies, considered, can be found in this thesis.

8.1.2 Research Question 2 The answer of the second research question, “How could urban mobility change in Europe based on a scenario analysis?” are based on the entire research done in the previous chapters of this thesis. With the aid of a scenario analysis a total of three scenarios could be identified. Surely, there are a myriad of different possible scenarios that could be suited better. However, the scenarios are based on the data and research from this thesis. A very big factor that affected this analysis and the research is the pandemic that hit the world and could not be predicted beforehand. This factor had a major impact on mobility and transportation worldwide.

With the help of the scenario analysis, three scenarios were formulated. The trend scenario which is based on current trends and on trends that are the most tangible ones. The extreme scenario A and B are both based on two contrary approaches to mobility. The extreme

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scenarios in this thesis are not considered as best-case and worst-case scenarios but rather as two alternatives to the trend scenario.

• Trend scenario – “Autonomous, shared and connected mobility”

A good combination between technology, new mobility concepts, new players in the market and the social component of user centricity and environmental sustainability creates a stable outlook the future of mobility could take on.

• Extreme scenario A – “Seamless Mobility – Focus on cities”

The extreme scenario A – which is not to be regarded as the best-case scenario – is an alternative to the trend scenario. The seamless mobility scenario could be the further development of the trend scenario if the components of seamless mobility are developed

• Extreme scenario B – “Sustainable and local mobility”

The extreme scenario B – which is not to be regarded as the worst-case scenario – has its focus on the sustainability trend. This should ensure quite literally a sustainable future

The trend scenario is the most likely to develop further and become the “new reality” for mobility. However, the future could change in an instance based on unforeseen variables and incidents. Therefore, the scenarios are likely occurrences and possible futures. The developed scenarios can be used however, as a basis for further research and developments of hypothesis.

8.2 Limitations and Areas for further Research

The limitations and areas for further research in mobility are many different areas and sub- areas of mobility. Due to the complexity of the topic not all limitations or research areas can be identified and are not stated in this thesis. However, the three most important and predominant limitations found in the course of the research are a few special areas of mobility.

Cyber security Cyber security is exponentially increasing in importance due to the increase in cyber-attacks on online ecosystems, digital platforms and IT infrastructures. The mobility sector is a very vulnerable sector and the data that could be stolen or leaked is very sensitive. Stolen data could be patents, construction data, personal information, payment data or a variety of other

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sensitive data. More important cyber attacks could even lead to physical harm when it interferes with vehicles or critical infrastructure. Furthermore, the combination of data and collaboration points from various stakeholders in the mobility industry and all relating industries is very important to really achieve new urban mobility and be able to not only provide seamless mobility but to be able to work as efficient as possible and as seamless as possible. With collaboration between many different stakeholders more possibilities are unlocked.

Technology acceptance Technology acceptance of new technologies and new concepts in mobility is not only interesting to know but also important to be able to communicate accordingly with different target groups. Especially for new technologies that are being introduced into the market, it is ab- solutely essential to have a greater insight into not only the technology acceptance by potential users but to understand psychological inhibitors, potential customers have using those technologies and mobility concepts.

New service providers With emerging technologies and concepts in mobility also new services and service provider arise and are needed. However, in order to identify those service providers, it is important to know the pain points of users and customers or even partners. Subsequently, based on that new market dynamics emerge. This can lead to a myriad of long-term changes in the economy, culture and ecology of the entire consumer and mobility ecosystem.

Moreover, the author recommends for further research collaboration between more in- stances and stakeholders in order to be able to create valuable outcomes for mobility concepts, that includes technology, customer needs, ecology, city and infrastructure requirements, on a national and even international level.

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