Author Caroline Han Submission Institute of Digital Busi- ness Thesis Supervisor Prof. Mag. DDr. Johann Höller URBAN MOBILITY – March 2021 TRENDS, NEW TECHNOLOGIES AND BUSINESS MODELS Master’s Thesis to confer the academic degree of Master of Science in Digital Business Management in the Master’s Program Joint Master’s Program Digital Business Management JOHANNES KEPLER UNIVERSITY LINZ Altenberger Straße 69 4040 Linz, Austria jku.at Acknowledgements II SWORN DECLARATION I hereby declare under oath that the submitted Master’s Thesis has been written solely by me without any third-party assistance, information other than provided sources or aids have not been used and those used have been fully documented. Sources for literal, paraphrased and cited quotes have been accurately credited. The submitted document here present is identical to the electronically submitted text docu- ment. Linz, 05.03.2021 Caroline Han, Acknowledgements III Acknowledgements Firstly, I want to thank Prof. Mag. DDr. Johann Höller for supervising my thesis and his valuable feedback during the process of the thesis. Special thanks goes to my family for supporting and motivating me through the whole pro- cedure of writing the thesis. Special thanks go to my parents who guided and supported me to reach my academic goals and advising me in many aspects which also includes my future paths. Table of Contents IV Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS .................................................................................................. III TABLE OF CONTENTS ..................................................................................................... IV TABLE OF FIGURES ....................................................................................................... VII LIST OF TABLES .............................................................................................................. IX LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS / GLOSSARY ......................................................................... X ABSTRACT ........................................................................................................................ 1 1 INTRODUCTION .................................................................................................. 2 1.1 Background of the thesIs .................................................................................. 3 1.2 Problem DefInitIon .............................................................................................. 3 1.3 Research Gap ..................................................................................................... 6 1.4 Goal of ThesIs ..................................................................................................... 6 1.5 Method ................................................................................................................. 7 1.6 Structure of ThesIs ............................................................................................. 9 2 LITERATURE REVIEW ...................................................................................... 11 2.1 DefInitIons ......................................................................................................... 13 2.1.1 New Business Models ........................................................................................ 13 2.1.2 Technology ......................................................................................................... 18 2.1.3 Trends ................................................................................................................ 21 3 IMPORTANT MEGATRENDS INFLUENCING AND DEVELOPING THE FUTURE OF URBAN MOBILITY ...................................................................................... 23 3.1 What are Trends and what Is classIfIed as a Trend ...................................... 23 3.1.1 Megatrends ......................................................................................................... 24 3.1.2 Trends / Sub-Trends ........................................................................................... 25 3.2 Trend or Must-do? ............................................................................................ 25 3.3 Trends In Urban MobilItY ................................................................................. 28 3.3.1 Megatrends – Urban Mobility .............................................................................. 29 3.3.2 Technology Trends ............................................................................................. 40 3.3.3 Socio-Cultural Trends ......................................................................................... 44 3.3.4 Gartner Hype Cycle ............................................................................................ 48 3.4 SummarY ........................................................................................................... 49 4 WHAT EXTERNAL FACTORS ARE AFFECTING URBAN MOBILITY? IMPORTANT ASPECTS TO CONSIDER FOR THE FUTURE OF URBAN MOBILITY .. 50 4.1 PESTEL AnalYsIs .............................................................................................. 50 Table of Contents V 4.1.1 Political and Legal Factor ................................................................................... 51 4.1.2 Economical Factor .............................................................................................. 57 4.1.3 Social and ecological factor ................................................................................ 68 4.1.4 Technological Factor .......................................................................................... 74 4.2 Impact Factors .................................................................................................. 80 4.3 SummarY ........................................................................................................... 84 5 THE RISE OF NEW SERVICES AMID THE SHIFT IN MOBILITY .................... 85 5.1 Charging statIons ............................................................................................. 85 5.2 BatterY recYcling .............................................................................................. 87 5.3 RepaIr shops for sharIng vehicles .................................................................. 89 5.4 PaYment servIce provIders .............................................................................. 91 5.5 SummarY ........................................................................................................... 93 6 SCENARIO ANALYSIS – THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK ............................... 94 6.1 DefInitIon ........................................................................................................... 95 6.2 OrIgIn ................................................................................................................. 95 6.3 The scenarIo funnel .......................................................................................... 97 6.4 The process of a scenarIo analYsIs ................................................................ 99 6.5 Performance crIterIa of the developed scenarIos ....................................... 100 6.6 Disturbance IncIdents .................................................................................... 101 6.7 SummarY ......................................................................................................... 101 7 SCENARIO ANALYSIS OF FUTURE URBAN MOBILITY .............................. 102 7.1 Step 1: Task AnalYsIs / ScenarIo PreparatIon ............................................. 102 7.2 Step 2: ScenarIo-field Analysis ..................................................................... 103 7.3 Step 3: ScenarIo forecastIng ......................................................................... 104 7.3.1 Influencing factor 1 – Society and consumer .................................................... 104 7.3.2 Influencing factor 2 – Market and competition .................................................. 105 7.3.3 Influencing factor 3 – Megatrends .................................................................... 107 7.3.4 Influencing factor 4 – Technology ..................................................................... 108 7.4 Step 4: ConsIstencY Assessment ................................................................. 109 8 CONCLUSION, OUTLOOK AND LIMITATIONS ............................................. 112 8.1 Answers of the research questIons .............................................................. 112 8.1.1 Research Question 1 ........................................................................................ 112 8.1.2 Research Question 2 ........................................................................................ 114 8.2 LimItatIons and Areas for further Research ................................................ 115 Table of Contents VI 9 LIST OF REFERENCES .................................................................................. 117 Table of Figures VII Table of Figures Figure 1: Overview New Mobility (own illustration) based on (Slowik and Kamakaté 2017) .......................................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 2: New Urban Mobility redefined (own illustration) ................................................. 15 Figure 3: Overview MaaS, (UITP 2019, page 2) ............................................................... 16 Figure 4: Generations