Panic at the Border: U.S. Relations with the Northern Triangle by Michael Shifter and Bruno Binetti

5 Panic at the border: U.S. relations with the Northern Triangle by Michael Shifter and Bruno Binetti

Anti-narcotics and military police officers incinerate more than 200 kilos of cocaine seized in southern Honduras near the border with Nicaragua, on the outskirts of Tegucigalpa on August 5, 2016. (ORLANDO SIERRA/AFP/GETTY IMAGES)

he United States has had a dominant presence in Cen- Since the Great Recession, undocumented immigration tral America for more than a century, but the region from Mexico—the traditional source of immigration to the received little media and public attention here except U.S.—has been steadily declining, while that from NTCA duringT the region’s civil wars in the 1980s. Today, Central MICHAEL SHIFTER is president of the Inter-American Dia- America is once again at the center of political debates in the logue and an adjunct professor of Latin American Studies U.S. as a result of rising undocumented immigration from at Georgetown University. He speaks and writes widely El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras, also known as the on U.S.-Latin American relations and hemispheric affairs. Northern Triangle of Central America (NTCA). While citi- Shifter is a member of the Council on Foreign Relations and zens of NTCA countries have been migrating to the U.S. for a contributing editor of Current History. decades, a combination of factors including widespread vio- BRUNO BINETTI is a non-resident fellow at the Inter- lence and criminality, economic inequality and rural poverty, American Dialogue. He is a doctoral student at the London and the desire to reunite with family members who already School of Economics. He holds an MA from the Elliot School live in the U.S. has led to a vast increase in their numbers. of International Affairs at George Washington University.

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Further, a of NTCA citizens attempting to enter il- under President Theodore Roosevelt significant share of entries from NTCA legally through the U.S. southern border. was a testimony to U.S. hegemonic countries are families and unaccompa- This essay will analyze the relation- position in the area. Under Roosevelt nied minors, who request asylum in the ship between the United States and and his successors, Washington in- U.S. This situation has overrun the U.S. Northern Triangle countries, in order to tervened several times in the region immigration system, which is ineffi- explain the structural causes behind the in order to protect U.S. economic cient and in desperate need of reforms recent increase in undocumented immi- and political interests. In doing so, due to decades of political blockage. gration from the area. To do so, it will it undermined or deposed govern- Under the Trump administration, explain the long history of U.S. influence ments deemed hostile to U.S. goals combating illegal immigration has be- over the NTCA, which Washington saw and propped-up friendly regimes come a priority of the United States. as a critical Cold War battleground in the regardless of their respect for demo- President Donald Trump has pro- 1980s and has become a strategic zone cratic norms or basic human rights. claimed a “zero tolerance” policy on for drug-trafficking into the United States Meanwhile, Central American elites the issue, including curtailing the right since then. This analysis will also address became entrenched, concentrating to asylum, separating children from the particularities of recent emigration all political and economic power their families to expedite deportation from NTCA countries, and how it differs while most of the population re- processes, and increasing the number from Mexico’s. In addition, it will evalu- mained desperately poor, especially of raids and arrests of undocumented ate U.S. policy responses to this surge in in the countryside. As a result, rural immigrants, some of whom have been undocumented emigration from El Sal- revolts by peasants and indigenous in the U.S. for decades. These poli- vador, Guatemala and Honduras under populations became common, and cies have deeply divided U.S. society the Obama and Trump administrations. were harshly repressed by the U.S.- and caused great human suffering, Finally, it will propose ways in which the backed security forces. while doing little to stem the number U.S. can tackle this problem by focusing This trend became even more on the reasons that make people emigrate acute after the start of the Cold War in in the first place. the mid-20th century. For Washing- Before you read, download the companion ton, authoritarian regimes in Central that includes definitions, a guide Glossary Historical background America were critical allies against ! to acronyms and abbreviations used in the left-wing forces supported by Mos- article, and other material. Go to www. The U.S. consolidated its influence over fpa.org/great_decisions and select a Central America in the early 20th century. cow, and deserved assistance despite topic in the Resources section. (Top Right) The opening of the Panama Canal in 1914 their corruption and violence. In

54 NORTHERN TRIANGLE 5 1954, the CIA supported a coup against Guatemalan president Jacobo Arbenz, a democratically elected leader falsely accused of sympathizing with commu- nism for his attempts to implement an ambitious program of land reform. The destruction of Guatemalan democracy generated instability and led to a vicious civil war between the military regime and left-wing guerrillas, which lasted from the 1960s to the 1990s. A similar situation ensued in El Salvador in 1980, when several guerrillas united to form the Farabundo Martí National Libera- tion Front (FMLN) and—with Soviet support—launched an outright offen- sive against the state, even managing to take some neighborhoods of the capital, San Salvador. The Memorial at El Mozote in 1993. It was built for families massacred in the village of The importance of Central Ameri- Mozote, El Salvador, by the U.S.-trained Atlacatyl Batallion in the early years of the war. ca as a battleground of the Cold War The plaque reads, “They did not die, they are with us, with you and with all humanity.”(LARRY became paramount during the Ronald TOWELL/MAGNUM PHOTOS) Reagan administration. During the 1980s Washington spent billions of dol- In addition, Honduras agreed to host demobilize paramilitary forces, reform lars in economic and military aid for the a paramilitary force of right-wing Nica- the security forces, and end human Salvadorian and Guatemalan regimes in raguans, who were being trained by the rights violations. As promising as these their fight against left-wing guerrillas. Reagan administration to fight against deals were, they were extremely hard In both countries the security forces and the leftist Sandinista regime that had to put into practice. Decades of conflict paramilitary groups supported by the taken power in Nicaragua. However, took a heavy toll on the NTCA: Infra- state unleashed vicious violence against the U.S. Congress opposed further in- structure was in ruins, public services rural villages, which tended to sup- volvement in Central America follow- almost nonexistent, poverty was ram- port the guerrillas. More than 200,000 ing the revelations of massacres in Gua- pant, inequality was appalling, and state people were murdered in the Guatema- temala and El Salvador, and banned the institutions were extremely weak, cor- lan Civil war, and 75,000 people were government from funding the Contras. rupt and inefficient. The democratically killed in El Salvador, most in the hands Instead of relenting, the White House elected governments who took over in of government-backed death squads. decided to use the proceedings of a se- the 1990s managed to prevent a return Entire villages were razed, peasants cret arms sale to Iran (a declared enemy to open armed strife, but the structural murdered and buried in mass graves of the United States) to keep supporting conditions caused by and that had con- spread throughout these countries. One the Contras. In 1985, the scheme was tributed to the armed conflicts remained of the most infamous episodes was the revealed by the press, and the Reagan almost unchanged. El Mozote massacre, in which more administration was crippled for months By that time, the region had ceased than 1,200 people were slaughtered by amid intense outrage in Congress and to be a priority for the United States, the Salvadorian military in December among the public. which offered little or no assistance for 1981. Even after this operation became As the Cold War came to an end in post-conflict reconstruction. Incapable known, the Reagan administration re- the late 1980s, all Central American of building strong democratic institu- sisted calls from Congress and civil so- governments came together to find tions, El Salvador, Honduras and Gua- ciety groups to cut ties with murderous a way out of the region’s intertwined temala became fertile ground for the ex- Central American governments. and violent civil conflicts. This led to pansion of criminal groups and armed While Honduras did not experience the Esquipulas Agreements, which laid gangs in the 1980s and 1990s. Some of a civil conflict, it was affected by the the groundwork for democratic elec- these criminal organizations became instability and violence of its neighbors. tions in Nicaragua (1990) and national more powerful and sophisticated as A strong U.S. ally, the Honduran gov- peace accords in El Salvador (1992) and they became involved in drug-traffick- ernment welcomed the deployment of Guatemala (1996). Through these deals, ing: The NTCA is strategically located U.S. troops in its territory and assisted governments, militaries and guerrillas between cocaine production areas in the right-wing regimes in Guatemala committed themselves to restore dem- South America and drug trafficking and El Salvador. ocratic rule, rebuild state institutions, routes that go through Mexico and into

55 5 GREAT DECISIONS  2020 the U.S., the largest consumer of illicit tries of origin. These groups used their drugs of its own in 2006 under presi- drugs in the world. The weakness of criminal skills to build powerful and dent Felipe Calderón, which led Mexi- state structures gave way to widespread violent branches of U.S.-based gangs can criminal groups to increase their corruption and inefficiency among the such as MS-13 (also known as Mara presence in NTCA countries, building security forces, judiciary systems and Salvatrucha) and Barrio 18, among alliances with some local groups while the political class. Moreover, former many others. The U.S. policy of deport- violently fighting others. members of paramilitary forces and ing dangerous criminals back to NTCA Eventually, the dramatic rise in intelligence services who had acted countries remains in effect today, with drug-trafficking activities and wide- with impunity during the civil con- tragic consequences. spread violence got the attention of the flicts recycled themselves as members By the early 2000s, gangs had taken U.S. government. In 2007 the George of criminal organizations. over entire neighborhoods in El Sal- W Bush administration launched the Even as the U.S. withdrew from the vador, Guatemala and Honduras, and Merida Initiative, a multi-billion- NTCA, its policies still had large re- were fighting each other and weak se- dollar assistance package designed to percussions in the region. In the 1970s curity forces over territory and drug boost Mexican efforts to combat drug- the U.S. government had launched a routes. As a result, murder rates shot trafficking organizations that includ- war on drugs based on a hardline stance up in NTCA countries, becoming some ed some funds for NTCA countries. against drug consumption and traffic. of the highest in the world. The other While the Initiative was announced However, the expansion of interdic- Central American nations (Nicaragua, as a multi-dimensional effort, in real- tion efforts in the Caribbean increased Panama and Costa Rica) also face sig- ity most U.S. assistance was destined the importance of Central America as nificant criminal activity and are part to provide training and equipment for a drug-trafficking route. In addition, in of hemispheric drug-trafficking routes, widely distrusted security forces, ne- the 1990s the U.S. government deport- but have been more able to cope with glecting much-needed reforms to state ed thousands of gang members from this threat due to their relatively more institutions and all but guaranteeing NTCA countries living in Los Angeles stable politics and stronger institutions. impunity for police abuses and politi- (mostly Salvadorians) to their coun- Meanwhile, Mexico launched a war on cal corruption.

Recent migration to the United States

ndocumented immigration from more than 50,000 Honduran nationals cally extended many times since then. NTCA countries in the United who had moved to the U.S. after the The number of undocumented im- StatesU is not new, even if it only recently country was hit by Hurricane Mitch. migrants entering the U.S. rose sig- entered the public debate. In 1998, pres- Three years later, president George W nificantly during the 1990s and early ident Bill Clinton granted Temporary Bush approved TPS for approximately 2000s; a great majority of them were Protected Status (TPS) –an immigration 200,000 Salvadorians, most of whom Mexican citizens. In the year 2000, category that protects undocumented had fled a catastrophic earthquake. over 1.6 million people were detained immigrants from being deported— to TPS for both groups had been periodi- while trying to cross the U.S.-Mexico border illegally, a historic high. Ac- cording to Pew Research, in 2007 the Mexicali Ciudad Nogales Juarez UNITED STATES overall population of undocumented Tijuana immigrants in the U.S. reached its Chihuahua Nuevo Laredo peak at 12.2 million: 6.9 million were Monclova Matamoros Mexican citizens and 1.5 million came La Paz Mazatlán from NTCA countries. However, after Gulf of Mexico the 2008 crisis undocumented immi- MEXICO gration from Mexico began to decline, Mexico Vera Cruz City Chetumal as the U.S. economy had less demand for undocumented workers in agricul- San Pedro Sul ture, construction and other sectors. In Tegucigalpa 2010, the number of people detained Caribbean while attempting to illegally cross the Sea Major migration route southern border into the United States 0 400 Miles had dropped to less than 500,000. 0 400 Kilometers However, since 2013 declining undocumented immigration from Mexico , has been partially offset by a rise in im-

56 NORTHERN TRIANGLE 5 migration from NTCA countries. Be- a critical source of income for families kidnapping and extorsion, and forcefully tween 2007 and 2017, the number of in these countries. In 2016 remittances recruit young men, attacking those who unauthorized immigrants from Mexico represented at least 20% of GDP in refuse and their families. According to a living in the U.S. declined by about 1.5 Honduras, 17% of GDP in El Salva- 2010 study, people in NTCA countries million, while those from NTCA coun- dor, and 10% in Guatemala. Those who are 30% more likely to consider migrat- tries rose by 400,000 and have contin- seek to emigrate, therefore, not only ing if they have been the victim of a ued to increase since then. Moreover, look for personal improvement, but to crime in the previous year. Part of this most undocumented immigrants from take care of those left behind. violence is related to common criminal- Mexico are young males looking for A second factor that explains the ity, but a significant share is connected employment, meaning that they cross surge in undocumented migration from to drug-trafficking: more than 80% of all the border in secret and seek to elude NTCA countries is the desire of people cocaine entering the U.S. passes through U.S. border authorities. In contrast, a to reunite with their family members. the Northern Triangle. large share of NTCA immigrants are ECLAC estimates that 82% of recent Murder rates in NTCA countries families and unaccompanied minors migrants from NTCA countries already are among the highest in the world, who request asylum in the U.S., a novel have relatives living in the United but have been slowly declining since situation that quickly turned into a cri- States. This type of immigration tends their peak in 2012. At least part of this sis for the U.S. government. to be self-perpetuating: With 1.2 mil- improvement is due to new govern- Although it is impossible to pin- lion Salvadorians, 880,000 Guatema- ment initiatives, including taking back point a single reason, there are several lans and more than 500,000 Hondurans prisons that were being run by criminal intertwined factors that can explain the already living in the U.S. (nearly half of gangs. El Salvador, Honduras and Gua- rise in immigration from El Salvador, them undocumented), family reunifica- temala have also implemented hardline Guatemala and Honduras. tion efforts are likely to continue. policies based on the use of massive The first is the lack of economic op- A third factor that has been mentioned force by the security forces to combat portunities in NTCA countries, which above is widespread violence and crimi- criminality. This can be a deterrent in are among the poorest in Latin America: nality in NTCA countries. According to the short term, but eventually leads to 53.2% of Hondurans, 50.5% of Guate- the latest data available from the United human right violations, police abuses, malans and 32.1% of Salvadorians are Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, in and lack of trust for the police among poor, according to the United Nations 2017 El Salvador had a murder rate of the people they are intended to protect. Economic Commission on Latin Amer- 62 per 100,000 inhabitants, Guatemala Further, lower murder rates in some ica (ECLAC). Despite relatively high of 26 per 100,000, and Honduras of 42 areas are a consequence of the con- GDP growth rates or over 2% annually, per 100,000. The global average is 5 solidation of criminal organizations: wealth in the NTCA is highly concen- murders per 100,000 inhabitants. In ad- armed groups have become so power- trated, unemployment is high, and most dition to murder, armed gangs engage in ful that they now face less resistance people subsist in the informal sector. Fur- ther, poverty is even higher in rural areas, where a significant part of emigrants to the U.S. come from. Rural infrastructure is very precarious and peasants lack access to credit. This makes peasants par- ticularly vulnerable to natural disasters such as earthquakes, and to the effects of climate change including hurricanes, massive storms and droughts, which have been rising in recent decades. Structural poverty and inequality have combined with the entry of more people into the workforce: more than half of the population in NTCA countries is under the age of 25. This age group is more likely to decide to emigrate in search for better living conditions than older people. Moreover, since immigration from the NTCA to the United States began to increase in the 1980s, the remittances sent by Mara Salvatrucha gang members are seen behind the bars of cells at a detention center on those working in the U.S. has become February 20, 2013, in San Salvador, El Salvador. (JAN SOCHOR/LATINCONTENT/GETTY IMAGES)

57 5 GREAT DECISIONS  2020 from rival groups and from the security in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras Further, governments lack proper forces. In fact, in 2012 murder rates in are incapable of providing basic public funding to do their jobs. In NTCA El Salvador dropped precipitously after services to many of their citizens, such counties, tax avoidance is the norm: tax the government brokered a truce be- as healthcare and education, and have no rates on the wealthy are still very low tween MS-13 and Barrio 18, the coun- presence in large parts of their territories. and most refuse to pay even that. As a try’s two main gangs. The cease-fire A legacy of the civil conflicts, security result, Honduras only collects 19% of collapsed in 2014, after the authorities forces are corrupt, violent and underpaid, its GDP in taxes, El Salvador 16% and faced growing criticism for ceding to which makes them easy to permeate by Guatemala about 10%. In comparison, gang leaders’ demands. criminal organizations. Judicial systems the average for member states of the A final reason for rising emigration lack independence from both the politi- Organization for Economic Coopera- from NTCA countries, and perhaps the cal system and criminal groups. This cre- tion and Development (OECD), a club most important one, is the weakness of ates an environment in which corruption of high-income countries, stands at democratic institutions. State structures flourishes and impunity is the norm. 34% of GDP.

Democratic governance: breakthroughs and setbacks

o be sure, the overall situation in independent judges and prosecutors, time, however, CICIG went beyond its NTCA countries has improved some corrupt officials have been held original mandate and began working Tsince the peace agreements of the accountable, and mobilized citizens with judges and prosecutors in high- 1990s. Civil society organizations are protesting against abuses in record level corruption cases. With the inter- work to defend the environment from numbers. Throughout the NTCA, how- national support and visibility brought predatory practices and to promote the ever, there have been worrying signs of by CICIG, these officials were able to rights of poor peasants and indigenous a further deterioration of democratic make historic breakthroughs: in 2015, communities, despite suffering threats governance and the rule of law. the president and vice-president of and violence from criminal groups. In 2007, under pressure from civil Guatemala were forced to resign after Similarly, brave journalists expose society groups, the Guatemalan gov- being charged with corruption, amid corruption from high-level officials ernment welcomed a United Nations- massive citizen demonstrations. Both and the brutality of the security forces backed institution—the International are in custody awaiting trial. One year throughout the region, and some pub- Commission against Impunity in Gua- later, Guatemalans elected outsider lic officials struggle to hold power ac- temala, CICIG—to support the local and former comedian Jimmy Morales countable against all odds. Because of judiciary in combatting human rights as president on an anti-corruption cam- the efforts of activists, the media, and abuses by the security forces. With paign. Soon, however, Morales clashed with CICIG and its chief prosecutor, especially after the body began in- vestigating the president’s family and advisors for alleged corruption and illegal campaign financing. Despite intense civil society protests, judicial rulings and citizen demonstrations, in September 2019 CICIG was forced to shut down after the Guatemalan government withdrew the authorization it needed to function. Despite this significant setback, the example of CICIG inspired civil society groups, journalists and independent officials in other NTCA countries. It proved that local institutions could hold high-level politicians accountable provided they had the proper funding and outside support. In 2016, the Hon- duran government reached a deal with People hold national flags and a sign reading "I love CICIG (International Commission the Organization of American States to against Impunity in Guatemala)". (JOHAN ORDONEZ/AFP/GETTY IMAGES) install a CICIG-inspired institution to

58 NORTHERN TRIANGLE 5 support the local judiciary: the Support Mission against Impunity in Honduras (MACCIH). Although this new body lacks the independence and strength of its Guatemalan counterpart, its creation shows that the anti-corruption agenda is alive and well in the NTCA. At the same time, Honduran democracy has deteriorated severely in recent times. In 2009 president Manuel Zelaya was removed from office by the military, with support from the country’s political class in Congress, when he attempted to change the constitution to allow reelection. The OAS and most countries in the region deemed this a coup and isolated Honduras until democratic rule was restored. In 2016, environmental activist Berta Caceres—who led a grass- Salvadoran Armed Forces soldiers line up in the historic center of San Salvador on June roots campaign against the construction 20, 2019. (MARVIN RECINOS/AFP/GETTY IMAGES) of a dam on indigenous territory—was brutally murdered: the case brought international condemnation but no con- victions. Two years later, president Juan Policy responses in the U.S. Orlando Hernández—who had strongly backed the ouster of Zelaya—managed n sum, the recent rise in undocu- die or are severely injured every year in to change the constitution himself, and Imented immigration from NTCA the moving train. won reelection amid serious allegations countries—which began around Those who can afford it pay human of fraud. 2013—responds to a combination of smugglers between 3,000 and 10,000 The situation in El Salvador is factors, including widespread violence dollars per person to provide protec- also defined by widespread impunity and criminality, rampant poverty and tion during the journey, and then pay and corruption, dotted with glimmers unemployment amid a demographic several thousands more to coyotes who of hope. In 2009 the former leftwing boom, a desire to join family members help them cross the U.S.-Mexico bor- guerrilla group FMLN—which had already in the U.S., and the corruption der. Frequently smugglers themselves turned into a political party after the and weakness of state institutions in El subject migrants to violence. For low- end of the civil war—won power for Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. income migrants, the alternative is to the first time through democratic elec- Migrants face huge challenges after join efforts with other people from their tions. This achievement was quickly they decide to leave, since they have to area who also want to reach the U.S., overshadowed by rising violence and travel for more than 2000 miles across forming so-called “caravans” of sev- corruption. As in Guatemala and Hon- some of the most violent areas in the eral thousand people. These groups are duras, some members of the Salva- world until they reach the United States. created out of necessity, to try to pro- dorian judiciary dared nonetheless to Throughout the journey, migrants are tect each other and pull their resources investigate high-level officials: a for- subjected to all sorts of violence in- on the long and perilous journey. mer right-wing president is in prison, cluding kidnapping, extortion, forced Nevertheless, even if they manage accused of embezzling nearly 250 prostitution, sexual assault, and forced to reach U.S. territory and apply for million dollars, and the first president recruitment into criminal groups. Parts asylum there, migrants from NTCA from the FMLN fled to Nicaragua to es- of the trip are made by foot, especially countries still face long odds. In fact, cape prosecution. Tired of traditional, in highly-policed border areas. Some the relatively large presence of chil- political elites, in 2019 Salvadorians people travel through Mexico by bus, dren among migrants—a new phe- overwhelmingly elected Nayib Bukele, others ride “la Bestia” (the Beast), a nomenon—is partially due to the fact who ran as an anti-establishment can- freight train that crosses Mexico from that they have special protections under didate. It remains to be seen if Bukele South to North every few days. Thou- U.S. law, which makes them more like- will be willing or able to fulfill his sands of men, women and children stay ly to stay in the country. For instance, promises of uprooting corruption, and in the train for more than two weeks un- unaccompanied minors can only be if a MACCIH-inspired commission til they reach the U.S. border, crammed detained for a few days by border of- created in 2019 will be effective. up on top of the train’s cargo. Hundreds ficials, after which they must be handed

59 5 GREAT DECISIONS  2020 vice and judicial reform, energy infrastructure, social development, crime prevention, and others. These initiatives were complemented by the Al- liance for Prosperity, a multi-billion plan with similar goals launched by the governments of the three NTCA countries with U.S. support. The ob- jectives of the Alliance are to boost the productive sector, develop human capital, strengthen the rule of law and improve citizen security in El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras. Then-vice- president Joe Biden became the visible face of the administration’s efforts to engage Northern Triangle countries in a constructive way and dispel old no- tions of U.S. hegemony in the region. At the same time, under president Obama the U.S. increased pressure on A migrant caravan of Central Americans walked into the interior of Mexico after crossing the Guatemalan border on October 21, 2018. (JOHN MOORE/GETTY IMAGES) Mexico to stop migrants from NTCA countries from crossing its territory, to reduce the number of people arriving at to foster homes or to relatives living in of months, in 2014 president Obama the U.S.-Mexico border. Therefore, in the U.S. Family groups are similarly asked Congress for almost 4 billion July 2014 Mexican president Enrique protected, and must be released and al- dollars in additional funding to build Peña Nieto launched the Southern Bor- lowed to stay in the U.S. after 20 days new detention facilities, increase sur- der Program, deploying more troops while their case is processed by back- veillance and border patrols, and hire and police officials along its 577-mile logged immigration courts. With more more immigration officials and judges border with Guatemala. The greater se- than 800,000 asylum requests pending in order to cope with the larger num- curity presence resulted in an increase by 2018, in practice many migrants ber of asylum applicants. The Repub- of over 70% in deportations of NTCA from El Salvador, Guatemala and Hon- lican-controlled Congress, however, citizens from Mexico between 2014 duras get to stay in the U.S. indefinitely resisted, amid serious clashes with the and 2015. It also led to more human after requesting asylum. White House on immigration policy. rights violations, abuses and violence The growing number of asylum ap- Meanwhile, the Obama administra- against migrants by the Mexican secu- plications from NTCA citizens over- tion moved to protect undocumented rity forces, and provided new opportu- flowed the U.S. immigration system, immigrants who had been brought to nities for human smugglers who con- which had been designed to cope with the U.S. as children from deportation, trolled alternative routes into Mexico. only a few thousand requests a year. while boosting deportations of undocu- Despite these efforts, by the time Between 2010 and 2017, for instance, mented immigrants with criminal re- Obama left office in January of 2017 asylum requests increased from 28,000 cords and recent arrivals. the idea that there was an unprec- to 143,000, with most of the increase To address the deep causes behind edented and dangerous crisis at the coming from citizens of El Salvador, emigration from NTCA countries, border had taken hold in Washington Guatemala and Honduras. Many thou- the Obama administration launched and throughout the United States. A sands more applied for “defensive” the U.S. Strategy for Engagement in key factor behind this growing sense asylum in an attempt to halt their de- Central America, focusing on El Sal- of alarm was the man elected in No- portation procedures from the U.S. vador, Honduras and Guatemala. This vember 2016 to be Obama’s successor. As the Northern Triangle surpassed policy worked simultaneously on three Mexico as the origin of undocumented fronts: economic development, demo- Enters Donald Trump migration to the U.S., the region re- cratic governance and security. Un- Anti-immigration sentiments were one ceived increased attention from U.S. der this strategy, Congress channeled of the key drivers of Donald Trump’s officials. In response to what he called more than 1.2 billion dollars through successful presidential campaign, to- an “urgent humanitarian situation” at the State Department and the United gether with opposition to free trade. As the border, created by the arrival of States Agency for International Devel- a candidate and later on as president, more than 50,000 unaccompanied mi- opment (USAID) to various programs Trump has used harsh and racist lan- nors from NTCA countries in a matter on areas such as education, civil ser- guage against migrants, falsely accus-

60 NORTHERN TRIANGLE 5 ing them of being responsible for job- (the practice of releasing undocu- the president has also sought to end lessness, drug-trafficking and allegedly mented immigrants in the U.S. while TPS status for citizens of El Salvador rising crime in U.S. border areas. their asylum case is decided on) and and Honduras, among other countries. Initially, President Trump focused deter new immigrants from attempt- This would allow ICE to deport over on immigration from Mexican nation- ing to enter the U.S. For example, 300,000 people that have been in the als, despite their declining numbers. new rules impose a mandatory fee on U.S. since the 1990s. So far, the deci- His most infamous promise was to asylum claimants, prohibit them from sion has been halted pending several build a border wall to stop migrants seeking employment in the U.S. while judicial proceedings. The administra- and drugs from entering the U.S., even their case is heard, and state that fami- tion was also forced to partially reverse though by the time Trump took office lies who have applied for asylum can its decision to forcefully separate chil- about 650 of the 1954 miles of bina- be detained indefinitely. Further, the dren from their parents in detention fa- tional border were already covered by Trump administration has taken mea- cilities, which was aimed at facilitating a fence. In addition to being highly in- sures to immediately reject asylum re- deportation procedures for adults. sulting for Mexico, a key U.S. ally and quests from people who have entered In addition to making it harder for important trade partner, this wall would the U.S. through another country: that migrants from NTCA countries to enter be highly impracticable: it would dra- would immediately ban immigrants and stay in the United States, president matically uproot the lives of binational from El Salvador, Honduras and Gua- Trump has also increased pressure on communities that move across the bor- temala from seeking protection in the Mexico, El Salvador, Guatemala and der sometimes daily, and would cost U.S. These changes have led to more Honduras to stop migrants from reach- billions of dollars but do little to stop people being detained in increasingly ing the U.S. border in the first place. people from applying for asylum at cramped detention facilities, with very Mexico’s situation is probably the dir- U.S. ports of entry. Moreover, most of limited access to legal counseling and est: So far, more than 60,000 people the drugs that enter the U.S. do it in healthcare. At least 8 children have have been forced to wait in Mexican small boats, or are smuggled in through died in these centers, most of them of border cities for their asylum request legal border crossings. Facing grow- dehydration and the common flu. Most to be heard in the U.S. Since the U.S. ing resistance from Congress—includ- of these measures have been chal- immigration system has a backlog of ing among his fellow Republicans—in lenged in court by civil society groups hundreds of thousands of cases, they early 2019 Trump declared a national and some U.S. states, but the admin- are likely to stay in that geographi- emergency at the border to relocate istration’s relentless anti-immigration cal and legal limbo for years. In the funds toward the construction of the push continues. meantime, migrants live in precarious wall without Congressional approval. President Trump’s crackdown on encampments maintained by Mexican So far, however, no new sections have immigration is not limited to newcom- authorities and some NGOs. Others been built outside of already existing ers. Breaking a decades-old precedent, wait in the streets and are vulnerable barriers. At the same time, the Trump administration launched a “zero tolerance” policy toward undocumented immigration, targeted toward entries from NTCA countries. The government in- structed the Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE)—the agency in charge of implementing immigration policy—to expand the number of raids, arrests and deportations of all illegal immigrants, regardless of their criminal records or how long they had lived in the United States, a sharp departure from previous policy. In addition, the White House has gradually implemented a complete overhaul of U.S. immigration regulations, in order to restrict the right to asylum and worsen the living conditions of undocumented immigrants in detention. The proclaimed goal of these Hundreds of activists and immigration advocates took to the streets in New York City on policies is to end “catch and release” October 11, 2019. (ERIK MCGREGOR/LIGHTROCKET/GETTY IMAGES)

61 5 GREAT DECISIONS  2020 to sexual exploitation and violence. mala a “safe third country” for asylum this vast displacement of people from Despite Mexico’s efforts to accom- seekers. If enacted, under this deal the NTCA countries, both “push” and modate people who had been expelled U.S. would be able to deport thousands “pull.” from the U.S. and to boost security over of Salvadorian and Honduran migrants In order to address the “push” fac- its southern border, in May 2019 Trump to Guatemala, which would be respon- tors that make people leave their coun- threatened to impose massive tariffs on sible for their well-being. tries, the U.S. will need to engage the Mexican exports if the government of Regardless of the text of the deal, region in a constructive way, with Andrés Manuel López Obrador did not Guatemala is far from being safe for properly funded programs that work do more to stem the “flow” of people its own citizens, much less for asylum with local governments while holding coming to the United States. Facing an seekers from other NTCA countries. them accountable. The approach used economic disaster (which would have Human rights organizations and oth- by the George W. Bush administration gravely affected the U.S. economy as ers have criticized the deal as being was based on free trade, and led to the well), the Mexican government quickly completely unworkable, and as an at- signing of the Dominican Republic accepted to take in even more Central tempt of the U.S. to forcefully return Central American Free Trade Agree- American migrants while their asy- thousands of migrants to the situation ment (DR-CAFTA). This deal gener- lum application in the U.S. is being of poverty and violence that made them ated new economic opportunities in processed, and to send over 8,000 ad- flee in the first place. Confirming these NTCA countries, but the benefits have ditional troops to its border with Gua- claims, Guatemala’s Supreme Court not reached most citizens. Under Presi- temala in order to stop migrants from halted the implementation of the agree- dent Obama, U.S. assistance shifted to- NTCA countries from entering Mexico ment, and Morales’ elected successor ward more targeted, community-based on their way to the United States. As a (who will take office in January 2020) projects, but did not have enough fund- result, Trump “indefinitely suspended” questioned its efficacy and announced ing nor time to be implemented before his tariff threat. that he would seek to renegotiate it. recent changes under President Trump. Central American governments Nonetheless, the Trump administra- Existing assistance programs that have also felt the anti-immigrant wrath tion has defended the deal, and vowed focus on education, infrastructure de- of the White House. In March 2019, to continue pushing for similar agree- velopment and health in the NTCA Trump ordered over 500 million in aid ments with other NTCA countries. could be expanded instead of cancelled toward El Salvador, Guatemala and The anti-immigrant rhetoric of the or used as bargaining chips. U.S. ef- Honduras to be halted as punishment president and other high-level officials forts could also focus on strengthening for their failure to stop their people is at least as consequential as the poli- accountability and democratic institu- from migrating to the United States. cy changes they are implementing. In tions in El Salvador, Guatemala and This is a dramatic reversal in U.S. countless speeches, tweets and state- Honduras. In that sense, the silence of policy toward these countries: instead ments the president has normalized the Trump White House while Gua- of seeing assistance to the NTCA as a language that until then was confined to temalan president Jimmy Morales way to change the structural conditions the most extreme right-wing fringes of expelled CICIG and Honduran Presi- that make people emigrate, Washington the political spectrum. He has accused dent Hernández secured reelection by is now chastising them, which is likely Mexican immigrants of being “rapists dubious means directly contradict the to weaken these countries even further and killers”, he has talked about Cen- administration’s efforts to reduce un- and increase emigration. Democrat and tral American immigrants “invading” documented immigration from these Republican members of Congress have the United States, and falsely accused countries. Every time the U.S. has opposed this move, but the government migrant caravans of being full of drug- tried to rely on authoritarian or corrupt has discretion to withhold the funds if traffickers and gang members. Further, leaders to pursue its strategic goals in it chooses to. he has directly tied undocumented im- Central America, it has backfired spec- So far, the governments of Mexico, migration with crime and murder, pro- tacularly. This is a lesson Washington El Salvador, Honduras and Guatemala moting false and dangerous stereotypes should have learned by now. have sought to accommodate the U.S. that can lead to more xenophobia and In addition, there is much the U.S. president as much as possible and avoid even violent acts against migrants. can do to reduce violence and criminal- confrontation. In 2018, for example, ity in NTCA countries, which are de- Guatemalan president Morales fol- What lies ahead cisive factors behind emigration. For lowed the U.S. in recoating his coun- Evidence suggests that punitive ap- instance, U.S. lax gun regulations make try’s embassy in Israel from Tel Aviv to proaches do not work to deter desper- it easy to smuggle weapons toward Jerusalem, in an (unsuccessful) attempt ate people from migrating. A long-term armed gangs and criminal organizations to gain the favor of the U.S. president. U.S. policy to gradually reduce the in Mexico and the NTCA. According In July 2019, after Trump threatened number of undocumented immigrants to a recent study, more than 70% of the to impose sanctions, Morales agreed arriving at its border would need to arms Mexican authorities decommis- to sign an agreement declaring Guate- focus on the structural factors fueling sion from criminals are U.S. made. Fur-

62 NORTHERN TRIANGLE 5 ther, U.S. assistance packages could fo- solution to the rise in undocumented cal discourse, and should certainty not cus more on accountability and human immigration from NTCA countries. A dictate U.S. policy on the matter. The rights observance in the security forces: bipartisan immigration reform—simi- thousands of people risking their lives iron-fist policies based on brute force lar to those that were common until the traveling from NTCA countries do it to against organized crime overwhelm- 1990s—would include measures that secure a better future for them and their ingly affect innocent citizens. would be unpleasant for both sides families, and to escape vast poverty and Ultimately, the massive demand of the aisle: it must include the regu- violence. That is a struggle that should for drugs in the United States creates larization of the nearly 9 million un- be familiar to most Americans, whose overwhelming incentives and profits documented immigrants living in the families came to this country under for Central American criminal groups. U.S., some of whom have been here similar circumstances. It is about time to accept that the U.S. for many years. It would also include In fact, according to Pew Research, decades-old war on drugs, focused on drastic changes to the asylum system, a vast majority of U.S. citizens support disrupting international supply routes which was designed to process a few measures to improve the living condi- and punishing all types of drug posses- requests a year and is based on an out- tions of asylum seekers at the U.S. bor- sion domestically, has failed miserably. dated distinction between “forced” der and to increase assistance to NTCA Cocaine consumption in the U.S. has migration and “voluntary” migration. countries. Perhaps most surprisingly increased sharply in recent years, and As we have seen, the exact reasons for given the current political environ- shows no signs of abating. New drug emigration from NTCA countries are ment, 72 percent of Americans (and a policies—already being implemented hard to pinpoint, and elements from majority of Republican voters) believe in some U.S. states—should avoid pun- both categories tend to overlap. A pos- undocumented immigrants should be ishing consumers and emphasize pre- sible compromise might be to restrict allowed to stay in the U.S., provided vention and healthcare over repression. the right to asylum while granting more that they meet certain conditions. This In addition, U.S. authorities could do temporary visas for humanitarian rea- is encouraging, and suggests that there more to prevent criminal organizations sons and for workers in areas that de- is vast public support for a bipartisan with presence in NTCA countries from mand them. consensus on immigration reform. using American financial institutions to Perhaps most importantly, U.S. pol- The United States has had a signifi- hide and launder their assets. icy regarding immigration from NTCA cant role in Central American history. But U.S. authorities must also ac- countries (and from elsewhere) needs to In order to have a positive impact on cept that there are “pull” factors that be decided based on an accurate repre- this region’s future, the U.S. needs to attract immigrants. In particular, the sentation of reality. Dangerous and xe- remember its own history and enact an U.S. economy continues to demand nophobic prejudices against immigrants immigration policy that is humane and thousands of undocumented workers should have no place in American politi- pragmatic. in sectors in which American-born people are less likely to participate, such as construction, restaurants, agriculture, and child and elderly care. Undocu- mented immigrants make about up 5% of the workforce force in the United States, or about 8 million people. The numbers are even higher in states such as California and Texas, where they constitute more than 10% of the total workforce. It is very difficult to attempt to repress a movement of people that is at least partially generated by the demand of U.S. citizens and businesses. More broadly, it is impossible to separate the present crisis from the state of the U.S. immigration system, which is in desperate need of reforms. Unfor- tunately, political blockage in Wash- ington—which predates Trump—has made it impossible to find an accept- able compromise. Reaching such com- U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with a member of the US Customs and Border mon ground, however, is indispens- patrol during a roundtable on immigration and border security at the US Border Patrol able to finding a durable and humane Calexico Station in Calexico, California, April 5, 2019. (SAUL LOEB/AFP/GETTY IMAGES)

63 NORTHERN TRIANGLE

discussion questions 1. President Trump has declared a national emergency at the south- 4. Given the importance you have ascribed to the region, consider ern border, deployed military forces to support U.S. immigration the three principal factors the author suggests are driving immigra- and customs officials, and diverted appropriated defense funds tion from the Northern Triangle to the U.S.: from infrastructure projects to improve physical barriers along the •The lack of economic opportunity in the NCTA countries. border. How great a threat to U.S. national security is the situation •The desire of immigrants to reunite with their family members. in the Northern Triangle and along the U.S.-Mexico border? •The widespread violence and criminality in the Northern Triangle.

2. Consider the duration and the importance of U.S. foreign rela- 5. Reflect on your policy choices. Did your group reach consensus tions with the countries in the Northern Triangle. Do you regard on which factor is most important, and which instruments are these challenges to be immediate, more mid-term (three to six likely to be most effective? years), or long-term (seven years or more)? How would you judge the area’s importance to U.S. foreign policy goals? 6. The author concludes that current U.S. immigration policy is “ineffective, morally wrong, and contrary to U.S. interests.” Do 3. Which U.S. foreign policy instruments are most applicable to you agree? If so, how will your recommendations improve the addressing these challenges? Consider diplomacy, information, situation in the Northern Triangle and along the southern border military, and economic measures. of the U.S.?