CRISIS REPORTS

NOVEMBER 7, 2008 Fresh insights into the Zimbabwean situation

SADC FAILS TO END POLITICAL STALEMATE

Latest regional initiative to resolve impasse over new government falls flat.

By Jabu Shoko in

A Southern African Development Community delegation has failed to break the deadlock between Zimbabwe’s political leaders which is preventing them from forming a government.

SADC representatives met ZANU-PF and Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, leaders on October 27 to try to help them bridge their differences over the allocation of key Credit: Lazele ministries. However, the meeting ended SADC executive secretary Tomaz Salomao outside venue of talks — 27 October 2008 13 hours later with no deal in place.

Mozambican president Armando or MDC leader The political leaders have been Guebuza, Swazi prime minister to climb down from unable to establish a government Sibusiso Dlamini and Angolan foreign their demands that certain ministerial following the signing of a power- minister Assuncao dos Anjos were posts be given to their respective sharing agreement on September 15, unable to persuade either President parties. because they cannot agree on who

NEWS IN BRIEF South Africa will host a regional Tsvangirai. Although the political Mugabe [will] join his colleagues at summit on November 9, aimed at rivals signed a deal agreeing to share the…summit,” said Chinamasa in the resolving the political deadlock in power on September, talks have Herald report. Zimbabwe which is preventing a unity stalled since they failed to agree on government being formed, said a who should control the country’s key At the last SADC meeting on report by news agency AFP. ministries — particularly that of October 27, regional leaders met home affairs, which controls the the Zimbabwean politicians to try South African foreign ministry police. and help them overcome the spokesman Ronnie Mamoepa said in impasse. However, no solution was the report that Southern African According to state newspaper the found, prompting the SADC Development Community, SADC, Herald, justice minister Patrick representatives to call for an urgent leaders would meet to discuss the Chinamasa confirmed that the summit. ongoing political crisis in Zimbabwe. government had been formally notified of the meeting and that Meanwhile, on November 5, At the meeting, members will seek to Mugabe would attend. “It is true Zimbabwe’s central bank issued a resolve the continued dispute that the meeting has been called, new one-million-dollar note, as the between President Robert Mugabe and we have received communication beleaguered country tries to tackle and opposition leader Morgan for the summit, and President soaring inflation.

NOVEMBER 7, 2008 1 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING should control each of the country’s “The people of Zimbabwe are faced The analyst said he doubted whether a ministries. with difficult challenges and further SADC summit would make a suffering that can only be difference, pointing out that past talks SADC officials told journalists that addressed once the inclusive had not produced results. the latest talks stalled only over the government is in place,” said the home affairs ministry — which communique. “There is no guarantee that another controls the country’s controversial SADC summit will break the impasse. police force. Last week, former South African We have had a lot of them, with the president , who brokered facilitator claiming there is work in “The only outstanding issue is the one last month’s power-sharing agreement, progress,” he said. related to home affairs,” SADC recommended that the opposition executive secretary Tomaz Salomao leaders accept whichever ministries He said that the SADC lacked political told reporters at a press conference Mugabe decreed they should have — will to push for change, “We will still on the morning of October 28. a recommendation he is thought to have Mbeki presenting a report which have repeated to the SADC will most likely be supported by the However, , MDC secretary delegation. regional grouping which wants to general and chief negotiator, told protect the status quo.” IWPR that the parties had disagreed However, analysts who spoke to over several critical issues. IWPR this week say the stalemate Eldred Masunungure, professor of shows that the power-sharing political science at the University of These included the allocation of agreement was flawed, as it failed to Zimbabwe, said the SADC had failed ministries; the composition, functions outline how the ministries should be to use its leverage to force Mugabe to and constitution of the country’s divided. They also questioned the share power with Tsvangirai. National Security Council; the question effectiveness of Mbeki’s mediation of the constitutional amendment which attempts, which Tsvangirai has The opposition leader won the will create the post of prime minister to argued are biased in favour of presidential election on March 29 with be assumed by Tsvangirai; as well as Mugabe. 47.9 per cent of the vote to Mugabe’s allegations that the power-sharing deal 43.2 per cent, although he did not has been altered fraudulently. John Makumbe, a political scientist muster the minimum 50 per cent and government critic, described the share of votes need to be declared “It is regrettable that the [SADC] could agreement as “highly defective”, and the new . not narrow the gaps between argued that the text of the deal Tsvangirai boycotted the presidential Zimbabwe’s parties,” said Biti, should have detailed the way in run-off on June 27, leaving Mugabe to following the meeting. which the ministries were to be stand unopposed, after a campaign allocated. of violence by ZANU-PF supporters “In our view, an urgent summit towards left more than 100 of his supporters the resolution of the Zimbabwe crisis is “The ministries are the levers of power dead. paramount. Zimbabweans are [in the country] and the way they are suffering and dying.” allocated determines how the power- Masunungure said he found it hard to sharing deal is going to be believe that the current deadlock However, Biti maintained that implemented,” he said. would be resolved unless both Tsvangirai would not accept a flawed Mugabe and Tsvangirai shifted deal, saying, “A bad deal is no deal at Ernest Mudzengi, a Harare-based significantly from their entrenched all.” political analyst, agreed. positions over the disputed ministry or ministries. Before the talks, Guebuza, Mbeki, and “The deadlock indicates that the South African president Kgalema agreement signed by the three “There is mutual hardening of Motlanthe expressed optimism that an principals [Mugabe, Tsvangirai and positions by the two main agreement would be reached. leader of the MDC breakaway group protagonists,” he said. “The prospects ] is not perfect,” he of the deal succeeding are getting However, in a communique issued said. dimmer and dimmer. afterwards, the SADC delegation urged its leaders to convene a summit Mudzengi said that there should have “Unless one or both of the two “to further review the current political been a wider consultation during the protagonists is prepared to climb situation in Zimbabwe as a matter of mediation process, which led to the down, we should now start writing the urgency”. It also urged the rivals “to signing of the power-sharing obituary of the power-sharing deal.” genuinely commit themselves [to] agreement, and added that civil finding a lasting solution to the current society organisations should have Jabu Shoko is the pseudonym of an deadlock”. been consulted. IWPR journalist in Zimbabwe.

2 NOVEMBER 7, 2008 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS HARARE HIT BY VIOLENCE

ZANU-PF youths said to have been attacking an opposition stronghold in capital.

By Chipo Sithole in Harare

A wave of violent clashes has rocked a Harare neighbourhood, apparently sparked by the ongoing disagreement between ZANU-PF and the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, MDC, over the allocation of key cabinet posts.

Since October 29, youth militia loyal to ZANU-PF have reportedly been

launching night-time attacks in the dirt- Credit: Lazele poor slum of Epworth, an opposition A woman protests inside the venue where Zimbabwe's main political stronghold on the outskirts of the parties have been holding talks — 28 October 2008 capital, targeting what they term “enemies”. their injuries. Five were in critical “The behaviour of these ZANU-PF condition, he said, including one thugs is a violation of the Global person who had been hacked by a Political Agreement [or power-sharing machete. deal] which recognises the basic MDC senator Morgan Femai freedoms of people such as said ZANU-PF youth militia The whereabouts of one MDC activist association, assembly, speech and have been attacking known was still unknown after he was movement,” said Chamisa. opposition supporters, reportedly abducted by the ZANU-PF claiming MDC leader youth militia, who are alleged to have set up two torture bases in Epworth, in Morgan Tsvangirai is the ramshackle Rueben Shopping “The behaviour of these refusing to join a power- Centre and the poor suburb of ZANU-PF thugs is a sharing government with Maulani. violation of the Global President Robert Mugabe. Political Agreement [or Femai said MDC councillor Didmus power-sharing deal] which Bande was in a critical condition after he was dragged to one of the alleged recognises the basic torture bases and attacked with rubber freedoms of people such as MDC senator for Epworth Morgan truncheons and baseball bats. association, assembly, Femai told IWPR that the ZANU-PF speech and movement” — youth militia — who are graduates of IWPR approached the assistant MDC spokesperson Nelson the former government’s youth-training director of information and publicity for programme — were attacking known ZANU-PF Gadzira Chirumhanzu about Chamisa. opposition supporters, claiming that the Epworth allegations, but he was MDC leader Morgan Tsvangirai was unable to comment. refusing to join a power-sharing government with President Robert MDC spokesman told Following the signing of the deal, the Mugabe. IWPR that the violence exposed political rivals were supposed to set ZANU-PF’s “sincerity deficit” in relation up a unity government, the According to Femai, the alleged to the power-sharing deal which establishment of which is seen as attacks resulted in at least 20 MDC Mubage and Tsvangirai signed on critical to reversing the economic supporters being hospitalised with September 15. meltdown in the southern African

NOVEMBER 7, 2008 3 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING country. According to official Mawanza spoke at the same time as In a statement issued on August 6, estimates, Zimbabwe has an inflation anti-riot police cracked down on a ZANU-PF and the MDC both rate of 213 million per cent and almost demonstration by women and youth condemned political violence and three quarters of the population is activists marching to the venue of the urged their supporters not to living below the poverty line. SADC meeting. They intended to perpetrate it. present a petition to the SADC delegation, asking it to “come up with a logical and balanced power-sharing agreement that will bring an end to the The meeting of regional political and socio-economic crisis Political science professor crippling Zimbabwe”. leaders failed to resolve Eldred Masunungure told the deadlock, with both “The petition was also highlighting the IWPR that the alleged parties referring the matter need for SADC and the African Union violence in Epworth flew in to a full SADC summit to exert pressure on Mugabe to agree the face of the spirit of the expected to convene soon. to share power equitably with the MDC September power-sharing leader,” Clever Bere, president of the accord. Zimbabwe National Students Union, told IWPR.

However, talks held to form a unity government — which have been taking place between Zimbabwe’s rival “The parties, acknowledging that politician in the five-star Rainbow “We are disappointed that violence that is attributable to us Towers hotel in Harare — have now the parties have continued and which has been injurious to stalled after the two parties failed to bickering over who controls national and human security, has, agree over who should control each what ministries and not indeed, occurred in the country ministry, particularly that of home after the March 29, 2008, affairs. looked at finding a long- harmonised elections, hereby call lasting solution to the human upon all our supporters and The most recent round of talks, held rights crisis in Zimbabwe” — members and any organs and two days before the Epworth incidents Simeon Mawanza, Amnesty structures under the direction and broke out, was facilitated by a International’s Zimbabwe control of our respective parties to Southern African Development stop and desist from the Community, SADC, delegation, spokesman. perpetration of violence in any comprising Angola, Swaziland and form,” read their statement. Mozambique. However, Professor Eldred But the meeting failed to resolve the According to reports, police Masunungure, a political science deadlock, with both parties referring responded to the demonstrations with professor at the University of the matter to a full SADC summit excessive force, and dozens of the Zimbabwe, told IWPR that it was expected to convene soon. demonstrators were arrested at the business as usual for ZANU-PF. scene, while many others were injured. Human rights advocates have He said the alleged violence in expressed concern that as the political The violence echoed the crackdown Epworth flew in the face of the spirit of disagreement rumbles on, the on MDC supporters prior to the the September accord, which he suffering of Zimbabweans is not being controversial presidential run-off suggested has had little impact. addressed. election in June, when more than 100 opposition supporters were killed and “The problem is that the power-sharing “We are disappointed that the parties over 200,000 internally displaced by deal is not legally binding,” said have continued bickering over who marauding ZANU-PF supporters, Masunungure. controls what ministries and not forcing the MDC to pull out of the poll. looked at finding a long-lasting “There is nothing that says police solution to the human rights crisis in ZANU-PF spokesman Patrick should respect human rights or face Zimbabwe,” said Simeon Mawanza, Chinamasa has denied responsibility for the law in the deal. It is a statement of Amnesty International’s Zimbabwe the election-time violence, claiming, intent from a legal standpoint; spokesman. “The MDC has admitted in a joint otherwise, nothing has changed.” statement we have issued to also “Human rights were never at the participating in acts of banditry, so it’s Chipo Sithole is the pseudonym of an centre of those talks.” both sides responsible for the violence.” IWPR journalist in Zimbabwe.

4 NOVEMBER 7, 2008 ZIMBABWE CRISIS REPORTS POLITICAL CRISIS PUTS OFF INVESTORS

Industry representatives say political deadlock is resulting in massive financial losses.

By Jabu Shoko in Harare

The continuing dispute between Zimbabwe’s political leaders over the allocation of government ministries is losing the country millions of dollars in investment, say analysts.

While President Robert Mugabe and opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai have agreed to share power, a unity government cannot be formed until the rivals overcome their differences on Credit: Lazele the distribution of cabinet posts. South Africa president Kgalema Montlante arrives in Harare for the SADC-led talks to help solve the differences between Zimbabwe's main political parties — 27 October 2008 According to analysts and business representatives, the resulting uncertainty in the country — which has turmoil engulfing the country, with the The ongoing political turmoil is making been without a government since mining sector particularly badly hit. Zimbabwe an unattractive prospect for March — is prompting investors to halt new investors. major projects. On November 5, reports emerged that major gold-producing firm Metallon At the beginning of October, The financial loss to Zimbabwe in Gold Zimbabwe — which has five Zimbabwe was ranked 133 of 134 terms of investments is colossal, said mines in the country and employs countries in the latest Global Zimbabwean commentator Eric Bloch. 4,000 people — closed shop the week Competitiveness Report, beating before citing viability problems. only Chad. It had slipped four “A number of huge projects are on Mugabe has allegedly confiscated places from last year, when it was hold. No one wants to invest in a some 20 million US dollars which were ranked 129 on the list compiled country where there is no owed to Metallon, to fund his cash- annually by the World Economic government,” said Bloch. “Why should strapped government. Forum, WEF. they pour money in a banana republic?” “[Zimbabwe’s] institutional environment “No one wants to invest in is ranked among the worst of all Industry representatives warn that if a country where there is no countries, with a complete absence of the stalemate is allowed to remain, it property rights, high levels of corruption, will inflict more damage on an government. Why should and a lack of even-handedness of the economy already staggering under the they pour money in a government in its dealings with the weight of a near decade-long banana republic?” — public, as well as basic government recession. Zimbabwean commentator inefficiency,” said the report. Eric Bloch. According to official figures from July, The continued absence of a inflation in Zimbabwe has soared to a government is now compounding the staggering 231 million per cent. problem, say investors. However, independent economists Other mines are also on the verge of estimate the true figure to be around collapse, saying they have not been A major project to create a private the eight billion mark. paid for their gold by the country’s airline to compete with the cash- central bank, which is notorious for strapped, state-owned Air Zimbabwe Companies are already struggling as a printing money to fund state has been put on hold until a result of the political and economic expenditure. government is formed.

NOVEMBER 7, 2008 5 THE INSTITUTE FOR WAR AND PEACE REPORTING

“We have to wait for the cabinet [to be totally unacceptable when industry is year political and economic crisis, selected]. We are hoping that the at a standstill and people are which has adversely affected most of disputes will be dealt with and the suffering.” the group’s 15 members. investment climate will improve,” a business executive behind the project Economic analyst John Robertson said Nelson Chamisa, spokesman for told IWPR. that while foreign investors sought Tsvangirai’s faction of the opposition reassurance, Mugabe was Movement for Democratic Change, The president of an Indian exacerbating the economic crisis by MDC, said his party hoped SADC conglomerate which has substantial delaying the appointment of a new leaders would persuade Mugabe of interests in Zimbabwe’s agricultural cabinet. the importance of allowing the country and manufacturing sectors said that at to move forward. least five million dollars in investments had been postponed, pending a “[The] SADC must use its “[The] SADC must use its leverage, resolution of the political problems. leverage, especially on especially on Mugabe, to make him Mugabe, to make him see see sense and to be aware that “We wanted to import more equipment people are suffering,” he said. for expansion projects. The potential sense and to be aware that for profit is there in Zimbabwe, but the people are suffering” — In the state-owned newspaper the uncertainties emanating from the Chamisa. Herald, ZANU-PF justice minister delayed appointment of the cabinet confirmed that has been a source of worry,” said a Mugabe would attend the SADC senior company official. It takes time for investments to yield a summit. profit, said Robertson, and investors “We will not take risks — we do not are deterred by doubts as to whether “It is true that the meeting has been know who will be appointed to which they would get any return on their called and we have received ministries and what policy changes money. communication for the summit and those new ministers will bring.” President Mugabe would join his “We are offering nothing but colleagues at the organ summit,” said Economists note that the battered uncertainty,” he said. Chinamasa. economy is clearly feeling the pain of a decade of subdued foreign Many hope the impasse will be broken The report noted that implementation investment. at a Southern African Development of the political settlement had stalled Community, SADC, extraordinary over the allocation of the home affairs “The main issues affecting Zimbabwe summit taking place in South Africa on ministry. It also noted that “there was a are the political squabbles,” said November 9. convergence between the parties with Callisto Jokonya, president of the regard to cooperative management of Confederation of Zimbabwe Industries. At the meeting, regional leaders will the ministry”. attempt to salvage Zimbabwe’s “For [the politicians] to delay signing precarious power-sharing agreement, Jabu Shoko is the pseudonym of an the agreement boggles the mind. It is putting an end to the country’s eight- IWPR journalist in Zimbabwe.

The Zimbabwe Crisis Report is information provision, It also contributes to the an initiative of IWPR-Africa’s capacity building and development of regional policy, Zimbabwe Programme. dissemination and distribution. promotes dialogue and builds This programme promotes bridges within the region. It also democratization and good The key purpose is to increase raises the Africa wide and governance with Southern Africa awareness in the Southern African international profile of Zimbabwe and contributes to the region of the Zimbabwean in the context of the region. development of a culture of situation and the implications for Importantly it also builds the skills human rights and the rule of law. regional peace, security and and capacity of the media to Focusing on Zimbabwe the economic development. reliably and accurately report programme has three core political transition, governance and components — human rights issues.

The programme is managed by the Institute for War and Peace Reporting — Africa. For further details go to www.iwpr.net

6 NOVEMBER 7, 2008