Notley leaves government with an important legacy. Not only did she win a majority mandate in 2015 in what is perhaps Canada’s most conservative province, she has coalesced most progressive voters into her party. The NDP are the official opposition. They also dominate . Time will tell if Ms. Notley serves her entire term or moves on from provincial politics; however, she did publicly state on election night that she will embrace her new role as Leader of the Opposition. Either way, she will have a prominent place in history.

Background Premier-designate Kenney has a strong mandate On Tuesday of last week ’s United and an ambitious agenda. He also knows that he Conservative Party won a resounding victory in has raised expectations, stopping just short of the Alberta General Election, securing 63 seats of promising a resurgent oil and gas industry. Expect 87 in the Alberta legislature. The governing New that he will move quickly to implement his agenda. Democratic Party will now assume its traditional He has already announced that a cabinet swearing- role in opposition, with 24 seats. The in will occur on April 30th and the legislature will go and the Alberta Liberals were shut out, losing the into session on May 21st, beginning with a Throne few seats they had prior to the election. Speech.

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newwestpublicaffairs.ca earnscliffe.ca The UCP Insiders None of this is possible without a strong team in Executive Council and the public service. Mr. Kenney is calling in chips from his almost 30 years in politics, assembling a formidable team of senior staffers and senior public servants, almost all of whom are personal friends. Here are some of the most important appointments to date:

Key Hires Likely Title Notes

Jamie Huckabay Chief of Staff The Oxford-educated Huckabay has served as Kenney’s CoS since last August

Howard Anglin Senior Advisor / Principal Anglin served as CoS to Mr. Kenney in Ottawa Secretary to the Premier and later became Deputy CoS and Chief Legal Counsel to Prime Minister Harper

Mark Cameron expected to be tapped for a very Cameron is one of Mr. Kenney’s oldest friends. senior public service role He served in the Office of Stephane Dion before switching sides and joining Mr. Harper’s staff, thanks to the intervention of Kenney. Cameron has been a supporter of a carbon tax

David Legg Senior Policy Advisor Premier’s Legg is also a long-time friend and currently Office or Public Service heads the Transition Team. Originally from Lethbridge he earned a PhD in Sociology from Yale and a Masters of Law from Oxford. He has worked in academia, for management consultancies such as McKinsey, and in international financial markets

Katy Merrifield Executive Director of Merrifield is highly respected for her work in Communications and Planning the same role for former premier Christy Clark in British Columbia

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newwestpublicaffairs.ca earnscliffe.ca The Cabinet • - MLA for – Edgemont - Petroleum Engineer and current UCP Energy Premier Kenney will be a hands-on leader to the Critic point of personally managing many important or controversial files himself. He is also looking • – MLA for Calgary-Northeast - for expertise, experience, toughness and MBA Oil and Gas experience communications ability as he considers who will • – MLA for Strathcona-Sherwood serve in his cabinet. Based on what we know Park - Finance and Investment background today, with all appropriate caveats, here is some speculation on possible picks for cabinet: Possibly in Cabinet • Mike Ellis - MLA for Calgary-West Probably in Cabinet • – MLA for Calgary-Varsity • Ric McIver – MLA for Calgary-Hays - Longtime MLA and Calgary City Councillor • - MLA for Innisfail-Sylvan Lake • – MLA for Chestermere- Srathmore - Current Deputy Leader UCP • Adriana LaGrange – MLA for Red Deer-North • - MLA for Rimby-Rocky Mountain • RJ Sigurdson - MLA for Highwood House-Sundre - UCP House Leader • - MLA for Drumheller-Stettler • - MLA for Calgary-North West - • - MLA for Calgary-Fish Creek Calgary lawyer and pipeline expert • - MLA for Calgary-Beddington • – MLA for Cypress-Medicine Hat • Peter Guthrie - MLA for Airdrie-Cochrane - Current UCP Finance Critic • - MLA for Airdrie-East • – MLA for Calgary-Acadia - Kenney loyalist and Calgary lawyer • - MLA for Lac. St. Anne- Parkland • - MLA for Calgary-Peigan - CPHR Human Resources at CNRL • Nathan Cooper - MLA for Olds-Didsbury- Three Hills • - MLA for Calgary-Elbow - Lawyer who knocked off Greg Clark • -MLA for Lethbridge East • – MLA for Edmonton Southwest - Lawyer and Immigrant from Nigeria Among the most influential of those likely to be • Jackie Armstrong-Homeniuk - MLA for in cabinet will be Ric McIver, Sonya Savage, Jason Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville - successful Nixon, Tyler Shandro, Doug Schweitzer and Travis entrepreneur Toews. Savage is seen by many as a frontrunner to be Alberta’s new minister of Energy. • – MLA for -Wapiti - CPA and CMA Rancher and Entrepreneur

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newwestpublicaffairs.ca earnscliffe.ca How They Will Approach the Economy equalization. This is expected in September. He has already established relationships with Premiers Premier-designate Kenney has promised that Moe, Pallister, Ford and Higgs, and of course with jobs, the economy and pipelines will be his his former colleague, Conservative Party of Canada preoccupation. Meeting the expectations he has Leader Andrew Scheer. This group, however, is set won’t be easy. He will drive his team hard to get at best a loose coalition. Expect Jason Kenney to results and he will lead by example. harness his 20 plus years in politics to assemble At the core of their policy agenda will be measures this group when he deems it necessary to advance that prioritize and restrain spending, reduce red Alberta interests with the federal government. tape and stimulate investment, including cutting Foremost will be economic files. Mr. Kenney has the carbon tax and lowering corporate tax rates. announced that he intends to meet with Premier At the same time, he will establish a large emitters Horgan of BC and Premier Legault of Quebec to levy under a program called the Technology discuss energy issues and common interests. He Innovation and Emissions Reductions (TIER) regime, will almost certainly meet with Prime Minister with the first $100 million in revenue and 50% of Trudeau regarding carbon taxes, Trans Mountain remaining revenue dedicated to a TIER fund to Pipeline, Bill C-69 (NEB approval process), Bill C-48 develop new technologies to further reduce carbon (tanker ban), and Equalization. emissions. The Premier-Designate has made it clear that his Jason Kenney is a gifted communicator with an first piece of legislation will be the repeal of the almost legendary capacity for work. In addition to Alberta carbon tax. Even before that, as cabinet’s policy moves, Kenney will also lean on his ability first act, they will bring into force (proclaim) the to “talk up” the Alberta economy and oil and gas previous government’s legislation (Bill 12) that investment. This will include crisscrossing the gave the government the authority to “turn off the continent to cajole energy leaders to defend their taps” on energy product exports. This measure industry and to invest in Alberta. He has a network was drafted in response to efforts of the British of contacts in conservative media and political Columbia provincial government to block the circles in Canada, the US (including in Congress), approval and construction of the Trans Mountain Britain (including Parliament) and Europe, which Pipeline expansion – deemed obstructionist to the he will leverage to his advantage. He also won’t economic fortunes of Alberta. hesitate to rebuke oil and gas critics, as part of his “fight back” strategy. Finally, he has enthusiastically supported Indigenous communities who have Policy Proposals spoken in favour of oil and gas development and pipelines, and has proposed policy that will help Bill 12: Turn off the taps them take an ownership stake in major projects. The Premier-Designate has hit a nerve by He will also rely on his ability to deliver a message announcing he intends to bring Bill 12 into force, to rally Albertans in support of his cause such which would give him the ability to restrict oil and as through the referendum he will launch on gas exports to British Columbia. British Columbia

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newwestpublicaffairs.ca earnscliffe.ca is already dealing with pump prices that have • Challenge the constitutionality of the Trudeau reached over $1.90 per litre. BC Attorney General carbon tax by filing a judicial reference to the David Eby recently pushed back, saying that Bill Court of Appeal, while continuing to support 12 is unconstitutional. Mr. Kenney is proposing similar challenges by the governments of to meet with Premier Horgan soon, and has Saskatchewan and Ontario. indicated he wants to begin his relationships with Bill 2: The Open for Business Act the premiers and the prime minister by “having • Retain the general $15 minimum wage. a conversation”. There is little indication Mr. Kenney would try to restrict exports anytime soon. • Introduce a Youth Job Creation Wage of $13.00 On Wednesday, at his first press conference as for workers who are 17 years of age or younger premier-designate, Mr. Kenney said, “I’ve always in order to incentivize the creation of first-time said that it’s not our intention to begin with jobs for unemployed dependent teenagers. reducing energy shipments to British Columbia but • Appoint a Minimum Wage Expert Panel to: to have the power to do so.” He has spoken in the -- consult with workers, employers, and policy past of finding other “pressure points” first before experts; invoking Bill 12. It seems likely that Bill 12 will be tested in the courts should Premier-Designate -- analyze and publish all of the available Kenney attempt to use it. economic data on the labour market impact of the previous government’s 50% increase in the minimum wage; Bills 1, 2 and 3 -- assess whether hospitality industry workers Throughout the campaign, Mr. Kenney made clear who serve alcohol would likely generate not just the policies he would implement, but higher net incomes (i.e. by working more also the order in which he would introduce them, hours) with a wage differential similar to naming the first three bills a United Conservative those that exist in Ontario, Quebec, and government would deliver: British Columbia. Bill 1: The Carbon Tax Repeal Act • Return to a regular / irregular workday distinction for calculating general holiday pay. • Abolish the existing $30 per tonne carbon tax. • Return to a holiday pay qualifying period of 30 • Subject any future carbon tax to the Alberta work days in the 12 months preceding a general Taxpayer Protection Act which requires all sales holiday. taxes to be voted on in a referendum. • Return to allowing banked hours to be paid out • Release detailed assessments of the impact of at regular pay instead of time-and-a-half. the carbon tax and the NDP’s “Climate Leadership Plan” on Alberta’s economy, and on key sectors • Review all regulations as part of the UCP Red including electricity, oil and gas, and homes. Tape Reduction Action Plan, with the goal of reducing the regulatory burden on job creators • Share an impact report with Albertans of the costs by one third. of adopting a $50/tonne carbon tax. APRIL 23, 2019 | PAGE 5

newwestpublicaffairs.ca earnscliffe.ca The Open for Business Act would seek to “restore Bill 3: The Farm Freedom and Safety Act workplace democracy and bring balance back to • Repeal Bill 6 (i.e. the 2015 Enhanced Protection labour legislation”, while retaining recent changes for Farm and Ranch Workers Act). that have strengthened worker rights and provided for greater compassionate leave. Specifically, the • Require employers to maintain workplace bill would: insurance for farm workers, but allow employers to choose whether to purchase insurance from • Restore the mandatory secret ballot for union the market or from the WCB as long as basic certification votes. standards of coverage are met for such things as • Protect workers from being forced to fund medical and return-to-work support services, and causes and political parties without explicit opt- protection against loss of income. in approval. • Exempt small farms from employment legislation, • Reverse the replacement worker ban in the following the example of New Brunswick that public sector. exempts farms that “employ three or fewer • Require the Labour Relations Board to provide employees over a substantial period of the year legal support to all union workers in order to (not including family members).” better understand and exercise their rights. • Ensure basic safety standards. • Strengthen new provisions in the Labour • Codify distinctions that recognize that operating a Relations Code that have reduced the farm is unlike operating a conventional business, duplication of employment claims in multiple and that farmers and ranchers require greater forums (such as labour relations; employment standards; arbitration; and privacy). flexibility in meeting employment standards. • Retain new forms of leave adopted in recent • Minimize the red tape burden on farmers and legislation including: ranchers. -- Personal and Family Responsibility Leave; -- Long-Term Illness and Injury Leave; Other Key Policy Proposals -- Bereavement Leave; What follows is taken verbatim from the United -- Domestic Violence Leave; Conservative Party Platform document. Our -- Citizenship Ceremony Leave– A new commentary is in italics. unpaid leave provides up to a half-day of The Job Creation Tax Cut job protection for employees attending a citizenship ceremony; A United Conservative government will: -- Critical Illness of an Adult Family Member; • Enact a Job Creation Tax Cut to reduce the general income tax rate on businesses from 12% -- Critical Illness of a Child; to 8% over four years. -- Death or disappearance of a Child.

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newwestpublicaffairs.ca earnscliffe.ca • Keep small business tax rates at 2%. Natural Gas • Further improve Alberta’s tax competitiveness A United Conservative government will: once the budget is balanced. • Increase regulatory efficiency and streamline project approvals to increase the pace of activity. This will be of limited value to many oil and gas • Work with producers, the National Energy companies that have years of losses to offset Board, and TransCanada to evaluate changes future profits, however it will be important to to regulations and policies pertaining to the the 75% of the Alberta economy that is not oil NGTL system, including tolls and tariffs, and and gas reliant. It also reinforces the political interconnection to the TransCanada Pipeline and economic message that Alberta is “Open for System through to the export points in Business”. Saskatchewan and Manitoba. • Work with producers, TransCanada, and regulators to increase throughput, reduce price The Red Tape Reduction Plan volatility, and lower shipper tolls on major A United Conservative government will: natural gas pipeline systems. • Pass the Red Tape Reduction Act to cut the regulatory burden and the time required for This policy attempts to address the differential regulatory decisions to be made. between Canadian prices for natural gas (roughly • Appoint a Minister for Red Tape Reduction to $1.00 per MMBtu) versus the US price (approximately lead the Action Plan and meet the one-third $3.00 per MMBtu). reduction target.

• Form industry panels to help the Minister Oil and Gas Well and Facility Environmental identify unnecessary red tape in every sector Reclamation of Alberta’s economy. There are a large number of suspended or inactive • Implement a “One-In / One-Out” rule requiring oil and gas wells and associated facilities in Alberta ministries to identify at least one offsetting that have reached the end of their economic lives. regulation for every new regulation created. Under the current climate of reduced oil and natural gas prices, this inventory of suspended wells and facilities has grown substantially. Premier-Designate Kenney has cited examples of oil sands projects being stalled in excess of A United Conservative government will: five years while navigating Alberta’s regulatory • Streamline the process for well and facility environment. There will be high expectations for a abandonment and environmental reclamation new minister to produce results from both industry to reduce costs and increase the rate at which and the new premier. wells that will not be used again are officially “abandoned”.

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newwestpublicaffairs.ca earnscliffe.ca • Work jointly with the AER and industry to • Under this new system, existing facilities with overhaul the liability management framework in emissions above 100,000 tonnes of carbon Alberta, ensuring liabilities are covered without dioxide (or equivalent) other than electricity unduly discouraging new investment. generators, will have to meet an emissions • Propose that the federal government provide tax performance target of reducing their emissions incentives and financial support such as “green” intensity by 10% (increasing by 1% per year) flow-through shares for the abandonment and compared to their average performance environmental reclamation of oil and gas wells between 2016 and 2018. That can be achieved and associated surface facilities. by either: reducing facility emissions, purchasing credits from facilities that have • Urge the federal government to establish exceeded their compliance targets, purchasing alternative financial vehicles that focus on accredited offsets from emissions reductions environmental reclamation in the oil and occurring elsewhere in the Alberta economy, gas industry, such as adapting Qualifying or paying into the TIER Fund at a rate of $20/ Environmental Trusts (QET) to include well tonne. decommissioning costs. • Reduce the compliance price from $30/tonne to • A United Conservative government will $20/tonne. streamline the AER, implement a robust natural gas strategy, and work with industry and the • Require large final emitters (LFEs) in the federal government on abandoned wells to get electricity sector to meet a “good-as-best-gas” Albertans back to work. performance standard, which means that over 60% of coal fired electricity emissions will be subject to compliance. This is a significant, complex and legally fraught • Implement a TIER Fund which will help problem. It will not be easily resolved. The new companies reduce emissions with cleaner government would do well to even begin addressing it. technology -- The first $100 million in revenues and 50% Heavy Emitters and the TIER Fund of remaining revenues paid into the TIER Fund will be used for new and cleaner A United Conservative government will: Alberta-based technologies that reduce • Bring in a new Technology Innovation and carbon emissions even further, including Emissions Reductions (TIER) regime for large new and improved oil sands extraction industrial emitters in Alberta effective January technology and supporting research and 1, 2020. This will be an improved system to investment in carbon capture, utilization manage emissions from Alberta’s large industries and storage (CCUS). The remaining TIER funds (including oil and gas and electricity generation) will also support: Reductions in Alberta’s which are responsible for about 60% of Alberta’s deficit, $20 million of the $30 million annual greenhouse gas emissions. budget for the energy “war room” that will

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newwestpublicaffairs.ca earnscliffe.ca fight fake news and share the truth about -- Practical legal and economic backing through Alberta’s resource sector and energy issues. the entire deal life-cycle to pro-development -- In total, TIER will generate estimated TIER First Nations’ who want to move toward being Fund revenues of $142.5 million in 2019/20 long-term strategic partners with industry (and $630 million in total when combined and the Alberta government, supporting and with existing CCIR revenues until December sharing in the long-term upside of Alberta’s 31, 2019) and $570 million in 2020/21. infrastructure and resource development. • Support legal action for pro-resource groups in The Premier-Designate has indicated an openness Indigenous communities with a $10 million fund. to expanding Carbon Capture Utilization and • Add economic development rights to the Storage (CCUS) as technology and economics preamble of the Alberta Aboriginal Consultation improve. Alberta’s record to date on CCUS is mixed. policy to explicitly consider support from Saskatchewan claims considerably more success. Indigenous communities for projects that affect them. • Work with the federal government to streamline Partnering with Alberta’s Indigenous Communities how Indigenous people access key services such as education and health care, including A United Conservative government will: ensuring Indigenous students have access to a • Establish the Aboriginal Opportunities provincial education system (paid for with federal Corporation (AOC) as a Crown Corporation to dollars) that enables students to succeed. For facilitate and backstop up to $1b in Aboriginal example, a United Conservative government will investment in natural resource projects and replicate the successful education partnership in infrastructure, including pipelines. the agreement between Whitecap Dakota First • The AOC would provide: Nation and Saskatoon Public Schools signed in -- Access to technical support on major project 2014. There, within one year of the agreement opportunities including feasibility and pre- being in place, the percentage of Whitecap feasibility studies, deal evaluation, and students in grades 1- 4 reading at or above grade project support. level rose to 76 per cent from 40 percent. -- Access to capital markets through effective Since the election, Mr. Kenney has reiterated his loan guarantees on government-backed desire to be a “true partner” to Indigenous people by projects - and in some cases, co-invested addressing their “economic and social issues” and debt and equity lending from the Alberta helping them develop the “resources that lie beneath government on a cost-return or shared the lands that they first inhabited”. This will be a upside basis, depending on the deal politically prudent mindset in embarking on a policy structure. area that has been fraught with tension and legal conflict in recent years.

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newwestpublicaffairs.ca earnscliffe.ca Pipelines can play in assisting government in promoting A United Conservative government will: Alberta as a tourist destination. • Immediately file a constitutional challenge to • Reorient the mandate of Travel Alberta towards strike down Justin Trudeau’s “No More Pipelines” more active facilitation of private sector funding and Bill C-69 (should it become law) as a violation of public-private partnerships for its tourism marketing Section 92 of the Constitution Act, which gives and promotion activities. Alberta clear, exclusive jurisdiction over the • Reprofile a portion of existing government funding production of oil and gas. for tourism into a Tourism Partnership Incentive Fund (TPIF), managed through Travel Alberta, to • Use the “Turn off the Taps” legislation should attract and identify sources of private sector support provinces, including British Columbia, continue to for tourism. obstruct the construction of pipelines. • Remove intrusive laws, rules, and regulations which • Build an interprovincial coalition of provinces impede the development of Alberta’s tourism sector. which support jobs, pipelines, and our energy industry, making it a top issue in federal • Work with the federal government and airport provincial relations. authorities in Calgary and Edmonton to expand air transport agreements and get more flights to • Hold a referendum on removing equalization Alberta from tourist source countries. from the Constitution Act on October 18, 2021 if substantial progress is not made on construction • Establish a target to double tourism spending in of a coastal pipeline, and if Trudeau’s Bill C-69 is Alberta to $20 billion by 2030. not repealed. • Make tourism the responsibility of the Minister of Economic Development and Trade The new government has few direct levers to pull to bring about the approval of pipelines. The Premier- A United Conservative government will implement Designate will need federal cooperation. Accordingly, a stable and predictable funding formula for Travel since the election, the new premier has dialed back his Alberta that links its funding and performance to rhetoric around pipelines. He is likely to try diplomacy tourism industry outcomes as a whole. first when he meets Prime Minister Trudeau and those premiers who have opposed pipelines or specific projects. It’s possible the prime minister will insist on Tourism responsibilities will be held by a more senior commitments to his climate change plan in exchange. ministry, which means greater potential upside if the minister effectively leverages the potential in Alberta. The flip side is a danger that the importance of tourism could Job Creation in Alberta’s Tourism Sector get lost among other industries. A United Conservative government will: • Direct Travel Alberta to work with tourism stakeholders to develop a new 10-year Tourism Strategy recognizing the role that the private sector

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