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Understanding, Forecasting, and Communicating Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate

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Understanding, Forecasting, and Communicating Extreme Weather in a Changing Climate UNDERSTANDING, FORECASTING, AND COMMUNICATING EXTREME WEATHER IN A CHANGING CLIMATE HEARING BEFORE THE COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES ONE HUNDRED SIXTEENTH CONGRESS FIRST SESSION SEPTEMBER 26, 2019 Serial No. 116–49 Printed for the use of the Committee on Science, Space, and Technology ( Available via the World Wide Web: http://science.house.gov U.S. GOVERNMENT PUBLISHING OFFICE 37–741PDF WASHINGTON : 2020 COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY HON. EDDIE BERNICE JOHNSON, Texas, Chairwoman ZOE LOFGREN, California FRANK D. LUCAS, Oklahoma, DANIEL LIPINSKI, Illinois Ranking Member SUZANNE BONAMICI, Oregon MO BROOKS, Alabama AMI BERA, California, BILL POSEY, Florida Vice Chair RANDY WEBER, Texas CONOR LAMB, Pennsylvania BRIAN BABIN, Texas LIZZIE FLETCHER, Texas ANDY BIGGS, Arizona HALEY STEVENS, Michigan ROGER MARSHALL, Kansas KENDRA HORN, Oklahoma RALPH NORMAN, South Carolina MIKIE SHERRILL, New Jersey MICHAEL CLOUD, Texas BRAD SHERMAN, California TROY BALDERSON, Ohio STEVE COHEN, Tennessee PETE OLSON, Texas JERRY MCNERNEY, California ANTHONY GONZALEZ, Ohio ED PERLMUTTER, Colorado MICHAEL WALTZ, Florida PAUL TONKO, New York JIM BAIRD, Indiana BILL FOSTER, Illinois JAIME HERRERA BEUTLER, Washington DON BEYER, Virginia JENNIFFER GONZA´ LEZ-COLO´ N, Puerto CHARLIE CRIST, Florida Rico SEAN CASTEN, Illinois VACANCY KATIE HILL, California BEN MCADAMS, Utah JENNIFER WEXTON, Virginia (II) CONTENTS September 26, 2019 Page Hearing Charter ...................................................................................................... 2 Opening Statements Statement by Representative Eddie Bernice Johnson, Chairwoman, Com- mittee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives .... 8 Written statement ............................................................................................ 9 Statement by Representative Frank Lucas, Ranking Member, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives ..................... 10 Written statement ............................................................................................ 11 Witnesses: Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd, Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Pro- fessor of Atmospheric Sciences and Geography, Director, Atmospheric Sciences Program, Department of Geography, University of Georgia, 2013 President, American Meteorological Society Oral Statement ................................................................................................. 13 Written Statement ............................................................................................ 16 Dr. James Done, Project Scientist III and Willis Research Fellow, Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes, Mesoscale & Microscale Meteor- ology Lab, National Center for Atmospheric Research Oral Statement ................................................................................................. 34 Written Statement ............................................................................................ 36 Dr. Adam Sobel, Professor, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Columbia University, Director and Chief Scientist, Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate, Columbia Uni- versity Oral Statement ................................................................................................. 50 Written Statement ............................................................................................ 52 Dr. Berrien Moore, Director, National Weather Center, University of Okla- homa Oral Statement ................................................................................................. 63 Written Statement ............................................................................................ 65 Dr. Ann Bostrom, Weyerhaeuser Endowed Professor in Environmental Policy, University of Washington Oral Statement ................................................................................................. 75 Written Statement ............................................................................................ 77 Discussion ................................................................................................................. 88 Appendix I: Answers to Post-Hearing Questions Dr. J. Marshall Shepherd, Georgia Athletic Association Distinguished Pro- fessor of Atmospheric Sciences and Geography, Director, Atmospheric Sciences Program, Department of Geography, University of Georgia, 2013 President, American Meteorological Society ...................................................... 118 Dr. James Done, Project Scientist III and Willis Research Fellow, Capacity Center for Climate and Weather Extremes, Mesoscale & Microscale Meteor- ology Lab, National Center for Atmospheric Research ..................................... 122 (III) IV Page Dr. Adam Sobel, Professor, Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory and School of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Columbia University, Director and Chief Scientist, Initiative on Extreme Weather and Climate, Columbia Uni- versity ................................................................................................................... 135 Dr. Berrien Moore, Director, National Weather Center, University of Okla- homa ...................................................................................................................... 138 Dr. Ann Bostrom, Weyerhaeuser Endowed Professor in Environmental Policy, University of Washington .................................................................................... 150 Appendix II: Additional Material for the Record Report submitted by Representative Kendra Horn, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives .................................... 160 White Paper submitted by Representative Kendra Horn, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives ..................... 199 Document submitted by Representative Randy Weber, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives .................................... 207 Charts submitted by Representative Francis Rooney, Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives .................................... 213 Report submitted by Dr. Ann Bostrom, Weyerhaeuser Endowed Professor in Environmental Policy, University of Washington ......................................... 215 UNDERSTANDING, FORECASTING, AND COMMUNICATING EXTREME WEATHER IN A CHANGING CLIMATE THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 26, 2019 HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES, COMMITTEE ON SCIENCE, SPACE, AND TECHNOLOGY, Washington, D.C. The Committee met, pursuant to notice, at 10:01 a.m., in room 2318 of the Rayburn House Office Building, Hon. Eddie Bernice Johnson [Chairwoman of the Committee] presiding. (1) 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Chairwoman JOHNSON. This hearing will come to order. Without objection, the Chair is authorized to declare a recess at any time. Good morning, and welcome to our day’s hearing on extreme weather. This is a topic that I think is universally relevant, as many of my colleagues and our constituents have dealt with ex- treme weather events recently. In fact, NOAA’s (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s) National Centers for Environ- mental Information found that in 2018 alone the U.S. experienced 14 climate weather and disasters with losses for each topping $1 billion. These events included drought, severe storms, wildfires, tropical cyclones, and winter storms, and they impacted nearly every State in the continental U.S. As of July 2019, the U.S. has already experienced six weather and climate events with losses greater than $1 billion dollars each. And July 2019 was also the hottest month on record worldwide, which led to record low levels of sea ice in both the Arctic and Ant- arctic. There is an increasing scientific consensus that human-driven climate change is playing an undeniable role in many of the ex- treme weather events that we have experienced. Earlier this week, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) of the U.N. released a report that found that climate change, through the slowing of the jet stream, could be directly linked to the record-breaking heatwaves experienced across North America, Europe, and Africa in 2018 and 2019. There was also clear evidence that the jet stream pattern influenced many extreme rainfall events as well. Yesterday, the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) released a special report on the oceans and cryosphere. It identified up to 90 percent of marine heatwaves from 2006 to 2015 were due to climate change. Climate change was also responsible for the increased precipitation, winds, and extreme sea level events associated with some tropical cyclones. The special report also de- termined that some back-to-back extreme weather events that we have become accustomed to seeing have also been influenced by cli- mate change. I know many of my colleagues from the Houston Gulf Coast area have directly experienced these impacts with the extreme rainfall that they saw from Hurricane Harvey 2 years ago. And most re- cently, they had to deal with Tropical Storm Imelda, which dropped over 40 inches of rain in some parts of Houston just last week. This hearing is especially timely given not only recent extreme weather events such as Dorian and Imelda, but also because Sep- tember is National Preparedness Month. It is important for our constituents to understand how they can and should be preparing for disasters,
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