Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion

The Effect of War on Local Collective Action: Evidence from the Korean War

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University

1/17/2017

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 1 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Motivation

Does war have persistent impacts? Theory: Little persistent effects from physical capital and the population level (Solow Growth Model) Empirical evidence: No long term consequences on population trend and employment (Davis and Weinstein 2002; Miguel and Roland 2011) What if conflicts destroy social capital? Possibility of persistent effects “[slave trade] effects penetrated deep into the social fabric . . . to the level of the village and household” (Nunn 2008)

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 2 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Goal of This Paper

Research Question Do conflicts have long-run consequences?

More specifically, Context: communism v.s. anti-communism during 1950-1953 Korean War Do conflicts within villages reduce the likelihood of cooperation within community 20 years after the Korean War?

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 3 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Bombing in Japanese Cities during WW II

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 4 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Population Trends Before and After the Korean War 5.6 5.4 5.2 log(pop) 5 4.8

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 year

treatment Δpop<0 control Δpop≥0

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 5 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Preview of Findings

Conflicts during the Korean War had persistent effects

Less improvement in local public goods 20 years after the War

A potential mechanism : reduction in community social capital

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 6 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion South Jeolla Province

I focus on South Jeolla Province The province with the largest civilian deaths

73% of total civilian deaths (Park 2005)

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 7 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 8 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 9 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Destruction of Community Social Capital

Increased social tension due to the presence of North Korea People’s Army (NKPA) People’s Court (인민재판) Set up by communists to purge anti-communists Accusations made by the same community members (Park 2005) Executions often carried out by community members Amplified existing social tensions within community (Park 2005, Park 2010) An example An elementary school teacher killed pupils whose parents are anti-communists (Kim 2003)

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 10 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 11 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Measures of the Intensity of Conflicts

Conflict among Local collective action village members

Measure 1. Population changes during the war

∆pop49,55 = log(pop55) − log(pop49) Unit: township Population Census 1949, 1955 (Partly captures) Civilian deaths by NKPA soldiers and communists stuck in the region Standard measure of conflicts

Intensity of bombing (Davis and Weinstein 2002)

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 12 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Measures of the Intensity of Conflicts

Conflict among Local collective action village members

Measure 2. NKPA attack routes Township’s distance from NKPA attack routes War maps and pre-war road maps Captures an possibly exogenous increase in social divisions

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 13 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Comparison of Measures

∆pop49,55 NKPA Dist. Capture civilian deaths Capture ↑ social divisions Mountainous regions Near national roads Problems: Migration effects Problems: Proxy for social division Problems: Reverse causality Problems: Road effects Better measure: actual civilian deaths Better measure: # People’s courts

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 14 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion

∆pop49,55

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 15 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Data

Conflicts among Local collective action village members

Measure of local collective action Cement usage from the New Village Beautification Project 1970 New Village Comprehensive Survey, 1970 public use = 1 if cement used for public goods public use = 0 otherwise Aggregated at township level Validity of the measure discussed in Yang (2016)

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 16 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 17 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Empirical Specification

Conflicts among Local collective action village members

Cross-sectional data with county fixed effects

public usei,1970 = βconflicti + γXi + θc + i with

public usei,1970 = good cement grade in township i in 1970 conflicti = ∆pop49,55,i , or Disti θc = county fixed effect Identification comes from exogenous location of NKPA β > 0

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 18 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion

Relationship between ∆pop49,55 and public use 1 .8 .6 public_use .4 .2

-.4 -.2 0 .2 Δpop4955

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 19 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Measure 1. Regression Results

Dependent variable: public use (mean 0.48, s.d. 0.11) (1) (2) (3) (4)

∆pop49,55 0.29*** 0.30*** 0.20** 0.16* (0.11) (0.11) (0.08) (0.09)

log(pop 1949) N Y Y Y full control N N Y Y county FE N N N Y R2 0.04 0.05 0.13 0.47 Observations 216 216 216 216 * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Robust standard errors in parenthesis. Clustered at county level.

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 20 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Robustness & Falsification Checks, Potential Mechanisms

Robustness and Falsification Checks robust & falsification

Potential Mechanism mechanism

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 21 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Measure 2: NKPA Attack Routes

Stronger conflicts in communities near NKPA attack routes Tragic stories near NKPA attack routes (Kang 2008) A major reason of many deaths of anti-communists was due to specific roads NKPA advanced (Park & Jeong 2012) “NKPA went past our village like wind and the peaceful daily life of our village was destroyed” (Kim et. al. 2010)

exogeneity

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 22 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion North Korea Army Attack Routes

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 23 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion 1918 Road Networks

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 24 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Empirical Specification (Measure 2)

Distance from NKPA Local collective action attack routes

public usei,1970 = βNKPA DISTi,1950 + γXi + θc + i

Identifying assumption Attack routes are exogenous conditional on distance from A class roads and observed township characteristics and unobserved county characteristics β > 0

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 25 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion NKPA Distance and public use .2 .1 0 public_use -.1 -.2 -.3 -10 -5 0 5 10 NKPA distance (km)

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 26 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion NKPA Distance and public use

Dependent variable: public use (mean 0.48, s.d. 0.11) (1) (2) (3) (4)

DISTi 0.03*** 0.02*** 0.04*** 0.04*** (0.01) (0.01) (0.01) (0.01)

controls N Y Y Y county FE N N Y Y GIS controls N N N Y R2 0.09 0.15 0.50 0.55 Observations 213 213 213 213 * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Robust standard errors in parenthesis. Clustered at county level.

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 27 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Exogeneity of NKPA Distance Measure

Exogeneity of the NKPA distance measure exogeneity

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 28 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Conclusion

Summary Novel evidence of the effect of war conflicts on local collective action from the Korean War War may have persistent impacts through reduction in social capital

Future Work Other economic outcomes (e.g. agricultural income) Persistent impact of social capital 60 years later Better measure of conflict and social capital

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 29 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion

Appendix

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 29 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Robustness and Falsification Checks

Reverse causality

Collective action −→ ∆pop49,55 Family clan concentration as proxy for pre-war level collective action (Yang 2016)

Family clan concentration does not predict ∆pop49,55 Falsification checks

A third factor may influence both ∆pop49,55 and collective action Used ∆pop in pre- and post-war periods (∆pop25,30, ∆pop30,35, ∆pop35,44, ...)

∆pop49,55 only shows positive relationship and statistically significant estimates

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 29 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Falsification Checks

Dependent variable: public use Explanatory variable βˆ s.e. ∆pop 1925-1930 0.04 0.13 ∆pop 1930-1935 -0.01 0.09 ∆pop 1935-1944 -0.10 0.06 ∆pop 1944-1949 -0.11 0.11

∆pop49,55 (original regressor) 0.16* 0.09 ∆pop 1955-1960 -0.23 0.14 ∆pop 1960-1966 -0.18 0.12 * p < 0.1, ** p < 0.05, *** p < 0.01 Robust standard errors in parenthesis. Clustered at county level. Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 29 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Robustness and Falsification Checks (cont.)

Exogeneity of ∆pop49,55 Do changes in population during the war exogenous? If so, should expect lack of correlation of population changes before and during the War

corr(∆popt−1, ∆popt )

Average values of corr(∆popt−1, ∆popt ) = 0.15

corr(∆pop44,49, ∆pop49,55) = 0.01

back1 back2

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 29 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Potential Mechanism

Was the reduction in social capital / increase in social tension the main mechanism? Kyungsang North Province experienced conventional war battles NKPA soldiers easily escaped back Little civilian casualties −→ Should expect little impact on local collective action

back1 back2

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 29 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 29 / 29 back1 back2 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion K North 1 .8 .6 public_use .4 .2 -.4 -.2 0 .2 .4 .6 Δpop4955 β_hat = -0.036, s.e. = 0.146, R2 = 0.0007

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 29 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Exogeneity of NKPA Distance Measure

NKPA attack routes may not be related to village characteristics 북한군 남침의 기본목표: 속전속결전략 “... 서해안을 따라 공격하는 기동부대들을 부산 서북방 지역으로 진출시켜 남조선군 잔여병력의 퇴로를 차단하고, 완전히 괴멸시킨다. (p. 137)” (소련 군사고문단장 라주바예프의 6·25 전쟁 보고서)

Inconsequential units approach (Redding and Turner 2015)

back1 back2

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 29 / 29 Introduction Background Data Results Conclusion Correlation with Observed Characteristics

Xi = δNKPA DISTi,1950 + γROAD DISTi + θc + i

Variable δˆ SE Variable δˆ SE log(pop 1949) 0.03 0.05 soil type 1 -0.07 0.04 % illiterate 0.00 0.01 soil type 2 0.04 0.04 % ag households -0.01 0.01 soil type 3 0.00 0.03 clan heterogeneity 0.00 0.00 soil type 4 0.00 0.02 % japanese 0.00 0.00 soil type 5 -0.01 0.01 % native born 0.04*** 0.01 soil type 6 -0.04 0.03 % single 0.00 0.00 soil type 7 -0.03 0.03 % age 0-14 0.00 0.00 soil type 8 0.11* 0.05 % age 15-24 0.00 0.00 dist. Gwangju 8.85*** 2.49 town area 3.29* 1.77 dist. Mokpo 3.63 2.13 ruggedness -0.07 0.07 dist. Sooncheon 10.57*** 1.20 elevation -7.20 6.27 dist. Yeocheon 9.44*** 1.16 dist. river 3.74** 1.75 dist. Seoul 7.06*** 1.57 island 0.12* 0.06 dist. Pusan 9.81*** 1.56

Hyunjoo Yang Incheon National University Korean War 29 / 29