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European Committee on Radiation Risk PRM-20-28, 20-29, and 20-30 80FR35870 158 ECRR 2010 Recommendations of the European Committee on Radiation Risk The Health Effects of Exposure to Low Doses of Ionizing Radiation Regulators’ Edition: Brussels 2010 2010 Recommendations of the ECRR The Health Effects of Exposure to Low Doses of Ionizing Radiation Regulators' Edition Edited by Chris Busby with Rosalie Bertell, Inge Schmitz-Feuerhake, Molly Scott Cato and Alexey Yablokov Published on behalf of the European Committee on Radiation Risk Comité Européen sur le Risque de l’Irradiation Green Audit 2010 European Committee on Radiation Risk Comité Européen sur le Risque de l’Irradiation Secretary: Grattan Healy Scientific Secretary: C.C.Busby Website: www.euradcom.org 2010 Recommendations of the ECRR The Health Effects of Exposure to Low Doses of Ionising Radiation Edited by: Chris Busby, with Rosalie Bertell, Inge Schmitz Feuerhake Molly Scott Cato and Alexey Yablokov Published for the ECRR by: Green Audit Press, Castle Cottage, Aberystwyth, SY23 1DZ, United Kingdom Copyright 2010: The European Committee on Radiation Risk The European Committee on Radiation Risk encourages the publication of translations of this report. Permission for such translations and their publication will normally be given free of charge. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form, or by any means, electronic, electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise or republished in any form, without permission in writing from the copyright owner. The ECRR acknowledges support from: The International Foundation for Research on Radiation Risk, Stockholm, Sweden ( www.ifrrr.org) ISBN: 978-1-897761-16-8 A catalogue for this book is available from the British Library Printed in Wales by Cambrian Printers (Cover picture: XY projection of secondary photoelectron tracks induced in a 20nm diameter Uranium nanoparticle by 1000 natural background radiation photons of energy 100keV;in a water particle of the same size this exposure would produce 0.04 tracks in the same XY plane. FLUKA Monte Carlo code. Elsaessar et al. 2009) The ECRR acknowledges the assistance of the following individuals, including contributors to its 2009 Lesvos Greece International conference where the development of its 2010 recommendations was discussed: Prof. Elena Burlakova, Russian Federation Dr Sebastian Pflugbeil, Germany Prof. Shoji Sawada, Japan Dr Cecilia Busby, UK Prof. Mikhail Malko, Belarus Prof. Angelina Nyagu, Ukraine Prof. Alexey Nesterenko, Belarus Dr Alfred Koerblein, Germany Prof. Roza Goncharova, Belarus Dr VT Padmanabhan, India Dr Joe Mangano, USA Prof. Carmel Mothershill, Ireland/Canada Prof. Daniil Gluzman, Ukraine Prof. Hagen Scherb, Germany Prof. Yuri Bandashevsky, Belarus Dr Alecsandra Fucic, Croatia Prof. Michel Fernex, France/Switzerland Prof. Inge Schmitz Feuerhake, Germany Prof. Alexey V Yablokov, Russian Federation Prof. Vyvyan Howard, UK Mr Andreas Elsaesser, UK Prof. Chris Busby, UK Mm Mireille de Messieres, UK/France Mr Grattan Healy, Ireland The agenda Committee of the ECRR comprises: Prof. Inge Schmizt Feuerhake (Chair), Prof. Alexey V Yablokov, Dr Sebastian Pfugbeil, Prof. Chris Busby (Scientific Secretary) Mr Grattan Healy (Secretary) Contact: [email protected] Contents Preface 1. The ECRR. 1 2. Basis and scope of this report 6 3. Scientific principles 9 4. Radiation risk and ethical principles 19 5. The risk assessment black box: ICRP 36 6. Units and definitions: extension of the ICRP system 44 7. Establishing the health effects at low dose: risk 63 8. Establishing the health effects at low dose: epidemiology 75 9. Establishing the health effects at low dose: mechanisms 84 10. Risks of cancer following exposure. Part I: early evidence 107 11. Risks of cancer following exposure. Part II: recent evidence 121 12. Uranium 144 13. Non-cancer risks 163 14. Examples of application 173 15. Summary of risk assessment, principles and recommendations 180 16. List of ECRR members and other contributors to this report 183 All References 189 Executive Summary 239 Annex A: Dose coefficients 244 Appendix: The Lesvos Declaration 246 ECRR 2010 ECRR 2003 was dedicated to Prof. Alice M Stewart, the first scientist to demonstrate the exquisite sensitivity of the human organism to ionizing radiation. The Committee dedicates this present volume to the memory of: Prof. Edward P Radford, Physician and Epidemiologist “There is no safe dose of radiation” Radford was appointed Chair of the BEIR III committee of the US National Academy of Sciences. His BEIR report in 1979 drew attention to the inadequacies of the then-current radiation risk model. It was withdrawn and suppressed but he resigned and published a dissenting report. His career was destroyed. In 2009 the ECRR awarded the Ed Radford Memorial Prize, donated by his widow Jennifer and the Radford family in the USA to Prof. Yuri I Bandashevsky Physician and Epidemiologist Bandashevsky drew attention, through his scientific research and self publications in English, to the effects of internal radioactivity from Chernobyl on the health of the children of Belarus and was rewarded by arrest and imprisonment. 1 ECRR 2010 2 Preface The presentation in 2003 of the new radiation exposure model of the European Committee on Radiation Risk caused something of a revolution in the focus of scientists and politicians on the adequacy of previous scientific theories of the effects of radiation on living systems. This was long overdue, of course, since evidence has been available for more than 40 years that it was unsafe to use studies of external acute radiation to inform about risk from internal chronic exposures to evolutionarily novel radionuclides. Such a scientific paradigm shift is not easy: the course and direction of the nuclear, military, economic and political machine dedicated to the development of nuclear energy and its military applications is monolithic and has massive inertia. It was therefore surprising and encouraging that ECRR2003 received such attention, and effectively brought about a new and intense interest in the flaw in the then- current philosophy of radiation risk: the physics-based concept of absorbed dose. The support and encouragement for the new model, and its success in many court cases (where it was invariably set against the ICRP model) was perhaps assisted by the increasing evidence from Chernobyl fallout exposures and from examination of Depleted Uranium effects which were emerging at the time of ECRR2003. The success of the ECRR model is that it gives the correct answer to the question about the numbers of cancers or other illnesses that follow an exposure to internal fission products. This is immediately clear to anyone: to juries and judges as well as ordinary members of the public. It received powerful support from reports of increases in cancer in Belarus after Chernobyl and also from the epidemiological studies of Martin Tondel of cancer in northern Sweden published in 2004: Tondel’s findings of a statistically significant 11% increase in cancer per 100kBq/m2 of Cs-137 contamination from Chernobyl are almost exactly predicted by the ECRR2003 model. There have also been developments in laboratory science that can be explained in the new model but are quite impossible to explain in the old ICRP model. One of these is the understanding that elements of high atomic number, like Uranium (but also non-radioactive elements like Platinum, Gold etc.) have the ability to alter the absorption characteristics of tissues in which they are embedded. Uranium is the central element around which the nuclear fuel cycle revolves, and huge quantities of the substance have been contaminating the biosphere since early in the last century. It is therefore necessary to update the ECRR risk model and include consideration of these ‘phantom radiation effects’. The widespread dispersion of Uranium from weapons usage has made it necessary to add a chapter on Uranium weapons. Since its founding in Brussels in 1998, the ECRR has been joined by many eminent radiation scientists from many countries. It will be clear from this new revised edition that the pressure on politicians and scientists to change their understanding of the health effects of ionizing radiation is now too great to ignore. ECRR 2010 1 The ECRR 1.1 The background The European Committee on Radiation Risk is a spontaneous creation of Civil Society which was faced with clear and alarming evidence of the failure of its democratic institutions to protect it from the effects of radioactive pollution. Predictably, the engine which generated this development was the Green movement, the result of another and earlier Civil Society reassessment of the aims and ideologies behind the systematic exploitation and contamination of the planet. The ECRR was formed in 1997 following a resolution made at a conference in Brussels arranged by the Green Group in the European Parliament. The meeting was called specifically to discuss the details of the Directive Euratom 96/29, now known as the Basic Safety Standards Directive. This Directive has, since May 2000, been EU Law regulating exposure to radiation and to releases to the environment of radioactivity in most countries of the Union. The Euratom Treaty preceded the Treaty of Rome and so once the document had been passed by the Council of Ministers there was no legal requirement for the European Parliament to address it. It was thus cleared without significant amendment although, astonishingly, it contained a statutory framework for the recycling of radioactive waste into consumer goods so long as the concentrations of itemised radionuclides were below certain levels. The Greens, who had attempted to amend the draft with only limited success, were concerned about the lack of democratic control over such a seemingly important issue and wished for some scientific advice regarding the health effects which might follow the recycling of man-made radioactivity. The feeling of the meeting was that there was considerable disagreement over the health effects of low-level radiation and that this issue should be explored on a formal level.
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