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Meeting Programme 2014 (Economic Sciences) education research model design exch an g e o solution f i d approach e a s welfare assumptions dynamism long-term analysis financial serendipity 5th markets Lindau Meeting on statistical trends Economic Sciences Programme 19 – 23 August 2014 Lindau & Mainau Island, Germany THE MEETINGS ONLINE TABLE OF CONTENTS Lindau Blog Welcome from page 4 blog.lindau-nobel.org Scientific Programme from page 8 Lindau Mediatheque Abstracts from page 24 mediatheque.lindau-nobel.org About the Meetings from page 44 Nobel Labs 360° nobellabs.lindau-nobel.org Supporters from page 48 Maps from page 56 Lindau Alumni Community alumni.lindau-nobel.org Good to Know from page 62 Facebook www.facebook.com/LindauNobelLaureatesMeeting Twitter twitter.com/lindaunobel (#lindauecon14) 2 3 WELCOME WELCOME For the 5th Lindau Meeting on Economic Sciences, once again, Winners of the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel have been invited to lecture on a topic of their deliberate choice and show- case the wide range of research fields. One particular highlight will be the lecture by Nobel Writer Mario Vargas Llosa. The Lindau Nobel Laureate Meetings have always encouraged promising and passionate young scientists from around the globe not only to strive With 19 Laureates and approximately 460 young scientists from more than for excellence in their fields of research but also to look beyond their actual th 86 countries, the 5 Lindau Meeting on Economic Sciences is a landmark research. on the agenda of the international scientific dialogue. The most esteemed This year´s meeting will again stimulate the valuable exchange of knowl- economists of our times and promising young talents will share their en- edge and ideas. Our leitmotif “Educate. Inspire. Connect.” embodies a holistic thusiasm for economic sciences, discuss the latest research findings, and and therefore sustainable understanding of the concept of learning. At the help expand a community across generations, cultures and disciplines. It is Lindau Nobel Laureate Meetings, education means more than learning from a great pleasure for the Council for the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meetings and textbooks. It should be part of everyone’s education to make inspiring and the Foundation Lindau Nobel Laureate Meetings to welcome our appreci- lasting experiences and share them with others. This approach distinguish- ated guests. es the Lindau Meetings from common scientific conferences. Since 1951, Nobel Laureates in physiology or medicine, physics, and chemis- In order to foster the understanding of science in society, our “Mission Edu- try have gathered annually in Lindau to mentor and inspire the next genera- cation” comprises various initiatives and projects, including the Lindau Me- tion of excellent scientists. From their beginnings six decades ago, the Lin- diatheque, educational films, the initiative Teaching Spirit and the travel- dau Meetings have evolved into an international forum for global debate. ling exhibition “Sketches of Science”. They all have the potential to generate In 2004, meetings on economic sciences have completed the set of Nobel public awareness of the importance and fascination of science and research. disciplines in Lindau. Prior to that, several Nobel Economists participated The council and the foundation would like to express their gratitude to the in meetings dedicated to the other disciplines: Ragnar Frisch, who shared participating Laureates, this meeting’s scientific chairs, our academic part- the first Prize in Economics with Jan Tinbergen in 1969, began the tradition ners from all continents, the donors and benefactors as well as all support- just two years later in 1971, followed by Gunnar Myrdal in 1976. Friedrich ers for their continuous commitment to our Mission Education. August von Hayek, who attended six meetings in total, James E. Meade, and Bertil Ohlin came in 1978; Leonid V. Kantorovich in 1979; Meade returned in We welcome you to join and share an unforgettable experience. 1982, joining Tjalling C. Koopmans and Paul A. Samuelson that year. Gérard Debreu and Herbert A. Simon were guests in 1986, and James M. Buchanan Council for the Lindau Nobel Laureate Meetings Jr. attended in 1989. Foundation Lindau Nobel Laureate Meetings 4 5 ABSTRACTS PARTICIPATING LAUREATES ROBERT J. AUMANN PETER A. DIAMOND LARS PETER HANSEN FINN E. KYDLAND ERIC S. MASKIN DANIEL L. MCFADDEN ROBERT C. MERTON JAMES A. MIRRLEES ROGER B. MYERSON JOHN F. NASH JR. EDMUND S. PHELPS EDWARD C. PRESCOTT ALVIN E. ROTH REINHARD SELTEN WILLIAM F. SHARPE CHRISTOPHER A. SIMS VERNON L. SMITH JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ MARIO VARGAS LLOSA 6 7 PROGRAMME OVERVIEW PROGRAMME OVERVIEW Tuesday, 19 August Wednesday, 20 August Thursday, 21 August Friday, 22 August Saturday, 23 August 07.00 Science Breakfast Science Breakfast 07.00 Science Breakfast Science Breakfast hosted by hosted by 08.00 Boat Trip 08.00 Mars, UBS AG Incorporated SAP SE to Mainau Island Lecture Hansen supported by SAP SE 09.00 Lecture Roth Lecture Stiglitz Lecture Merton 09.00 Lecture Phelps Lecture Maskin Lecture McFadden 10.00 Coffee Break Lecture Kydland Lecture Mirrlees 10.00 Lecture Sims Lecture Aumann Coffee Break 11.00 Lecture Smith Coffee Break Closing Panel Discussion 11.00 Lecture Nash Lecture Myerson How Useful is Economics – How is Economics Useful? 12.00 Lecture Lecture 12.00 Selten Prescott Diamond, Merton, Roth Lunch Break Lecture Sharpe Lecture Diamond 13.00 13.00 14.00 Lunch Break Lunch Break Lunch Break 14.00 Opening Ceremony Panel Discussion Panel Discussion 15.00 Registration 15.00 Break The Future of Econometrics: Structural Farewell Ceremony 12 - 20 hrs Strategic Behavior, Incentives, Restrictions, Parametric Methods and and Mechanism Design Big Data Maskin, Mirrlees, Myerson 16.00 Discussions Hansen, McFadden, Sims 16.00 Hansen | Phelps Roth | Sims | Smith Break Break 17.00 Discussions Master Classes Discussions Boat Trip 17.00 to Lindau Aumann | Kydland Hansen Diamond | McFadden | Merton Maskin | Nash Mirrlees supported by Myerson Selten Myerson | Prescott SAP SE 18.00 Sharpe | Stiglitz 18.00 Break Break Break 19.00 Social Function Lecture Meeting 19.00 Mario Vargas Llosa Childhood Award Presentations 20.00 Social Function Social Function Social Function 20.00 Dinner Dinner 21.00 Bavarian Evening 21.00 supported by the Get-Together Free State of Bavaria 22.00 22.00 Free Evening 8 9 TUESDAY, 19 AUGUST 12.00 Meeting Registration Registration from 12.00 – 20.00 hrs continuously Inselhalle 19.00 Dinner Catering Tent Access: young scientists only SKETCHES OF SCIENCE Exhibition Japan, Tohoku University | 30 July – 31 August 2014 South Korea, National Science Museum, Seoul | 13 October – 30 November 2014 USA, UC Davis | December – February 2015 Germany, Hannover Messe | April – Mai 2015 11 WEDNESDAY, 2O AUGUST WEDNESDAY, 20 AUGUST 08.30 Lars Peter Hansen 13.45 Seats for the Opening Ceremony need to be taken by 13.45 hrs at the Plenary Lecture Uncertainty and Valuation latest. Strictly no access after 13.45 hrs. Inselhalle 14.00 Opening Ceremony 09.00 Alvin E. Roth Opening Plenary Lecture Repugnant Markets and Prohibited Transactions Ceremony Welcome Inselhalle Inselhalle Countess Bettina Bernadotte 09.30 Edmund S. Phelps President of the Council Plenary Lecture Bringing Dynamism, Homegrown Innovation Welcome Address Inselhalle and Human Flourishing into Economics Lars Heikensten 10.00 Coffee Break Executive Director, Nobel Foundation, Sweden 10.30 Christopher A. Sims Induction of a New Member to the Honorary Senate Plenary Lecture Inflation, Fear of Inflation, and Public Debt of the Foundation Lindau Nobel Laureate Meetings Inselhalle Walter B. Kielholz 11.00 Vernon L. Smith Chairman, Swiss Re, Switzerland Plenary Lecture Rethinking Market Experiments in the Shadow Keynote Address Inselhalle of Recessions: The Good and the Sometimes Ugly; Propositions on Recessions Angela Merkel Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany 11.30 Lunch Break Catering Tent Access: young scientists and media only Master of Ceremony: Till Nassif Access: all registered participants Note: Due to security reasons, no participants are admitted to the con- 15.00 Break ference venue Inselhalle between 11.45 hrs and 13.00 hrs. Please be aware that upon re-entry for participation in the Open- ing Ceremony, all participants are required to identify themselves with a photo ID, even if they have done so earlier already. Kindly note that there are dedicated entrances for young scientists (rear entrance of the Inselhalle), guests (front side entrance) and media (restaurant entrance). No bags larger than laptop bags may be brought into the audito- rium. Due to security reasons, no participants without special permis- sion are allowed to the venue between 15.30 hrs and 19.30 hrs. 12 13 WEDNESDAY, 20 AUGUST THURSDAY, 21 AUGUST 16.00 Lars Peter Hansen Partner Event Paths to Innovation: Restoring Grassroots Dynamism to Discussion Discussion with young scientists 07.00 Address Global Challenges Altes Rathaus Science Breakfast hosted by Mars, Incorporated Forum am See 16.00 Edmund S. Phelps Ralph Jerome Discussion Discussion with young scientists Vice President, Corporate Innovation, Mars, Incorporated Forum am See Edmund S. Phelps 16.00 Alvin E. Roth Department of Economics, Columbia University Discussion Discussion with young scientists Hotel Bay. Hof Young scientist (tbd) Moderator: Romesh Vaitilingam 16.00 Christopher A. Sims VoxEU.org Discussion Discussion with young scientists Landratsamt Access: with online pre-registration only 16.00 Vernon
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