B.J.Pol.S., Page 1 of 21 Copyright © Cambridge University Press, 2017 doi:10.1017/S0007123417000011
Ethnicity and the Swing Vote in Africa’s Emerging
Democracies: Evidence from Kenya
JEREMY HOROWITZ*
Who are Africa’s swing voters? This article argues that in settings where ethnicity is politically salient, core and swing are defined by whether ethnic groups have a co-ethnic leader in the election. For members of ethnic groups with a co-ethnic in the race, there is typically less uncertainty about which party or candidate will best represent the group’s interests. For members of groups without a co-ethnic in the race, uncertainty is often greater, making these voters potentially more receptive to campaign persuasion and more likely to change voting intentions during the campaign. Consistent with these expectations, panel data from Kenya’s 2013 presidential election shows that voters from groups
7AA DDD 20 1 364 6 2 4 A4 20 1 364 7AA DDD without a co-ethnic in the race were more than two and a half times more likely to change their voting intentions during the campaign period.
Keywords: African politics; elections; political behavior; swing voters; Kenya
The distinction between core and swing voters is fundamental to understanding basic electoral dynamics related to campaign strategies, elite persuasion and electoral outcomes in democracies. Yet while considerable effort has been devoted to conceptualizing core and swing groups in mature democracies, this question has received less attention in emerging democracies, particularly in Africa. The lack of scholarship may stem from the view that in contexts where ethnicity is politically salient, as it is in much of Africa, few voters will be available for persuasion and conversion during campaigns. Yet the lack of attention may also stem from methodological limitations. Nearly all of the observational research on political behavior in Africa’s emerging