Economic Issues and the 2004 Campaign Bush, Kerry Gear up For

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Economic Issues and the 2004 Campaign Bush, Kerry Gear up For Election FOCUS October 19, 2004 U.S. Department of State ISSUE 1 • NO 15 Inside This Issue: Bush, Kerry Gear Up for Final • Bush, Kerry Gear Up for Final Days of Campaign Days of Campaign. page 1 • Economic Issues and the 2004 Campaign . page 1 • Campaign Highlight: The Fight For the Battleground States . page 4 FAST FACTS: ✔ Between August and October President Bush waves to supporters as he arrives Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry at a campaign rally Tuesday, October 19, 2004 in greets supporters at an early vote kickoff rally in 2004, 87 percent of presidential St. Petersburg, Florida. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Orlando, Florida on Monday, Oct. 18, 2004. election advertisements have run Monsivais) (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert) in markets that contain only 27 National polls show a statistical dead heat between the two major candidates percent of the electorate. with less than two weeks to go until the 2004 presidential elections. President —Nielsen-Monitor Plus and the University George Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney and their Democratic challengers of Wisconsin Advertising Project Senators John Kerry and John Edwards face a competitive and dramatic final stretch of their election campaigns. The last of three presidential debates concluded on October 13 with a debate (continued on page 2) Economic Issues and the 2004 Campaign Voters’ concerns about their jobs, businesses, government benefits, taxes and general economic conditions are always extremely important in U.S. presidential elections. This year, the economy along with terrorism and the war in Iraq are the important issues in the campaign, according to a variety of polls. President Bush and Senator Kerry have both stressed economic issues in the debates and on the campaign trail, offering competing policies on taxes, health care and other government programs. To receive this newsletter The 2004 campaign’s economic policy debate goes back to 2000, when the via a listserv go to: U.S. economy reached the end of an extended low inflation, high growth expan- www.usembassy.de/germany/mailinglists.html sion. Rising tax revenues – bolstered by tax revenues from capital gains as (continued on page 2) ELECTION FOCUS 2004 (continued from page 1) storm”—have been the most inundated Florida since March. by political advertisements, since five Both parties are also focusing their on domestic issues in Tempe, Arizona. of the top ten advertising markets in attention on voter turnout and are The debate demonstrated the marked this campaign are cities in those states. organizing efforts to register voters, differences between the candidates and Many residents find the ads helpful, especially their core constituencies, to signaled the beginning of their final but at times overwhelming. “The ads encourage them to vote early where sprint to Election Day on November 2. can be pretty influential in terms of allowed and to help them get to the The candidates reached a nationwide focusing on the main issues that voters polls on Election Day if needed. In six audience during the series of debates, really care about,” said Anne Marie states—Idaho, Maine, Minnesota, New outlining both their foreign and domes- Mulcahy, an Immigration attorney Hampshire, Wisconsin, and tic platforms, and are now—along with from Miami Beach, Florida. “But at Wyoming—voters can register as late their families and supporters—devot- some point after hearing these ads day as Election Day itself, making predict- ing most of their time and money to in and day out, I think voters get ing eventual winners even less reliable. winning the vote in the 10 so-called advertisement fatigue.” In Ohio and Groups that are especially being swing states that many experts say will Florida, the candidates spent over 19 targeted by Republicans include decide the 2004 election. million dollars in television Evangelical Christians, who experts According to a study by Nielsen advertisements alone the week before say overwhelmingly support President Monitor-plus and the University of the final debate, airing ads a total of Bush but had a low turnout in the 2000 Wisconsin Advertising Project 17,000 times. election. Democrats are reaching out in released on October 12, Colorado, Ohio and Florida together control similar fashion to minority voters, one Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, 47 Electoral College votes, but heavy of their core constituencies, especially New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, media campaigns are also taking place in urban areas of the country. ■ Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are key in states such as New Mexico and swing states in the upcoming election Nevada which have only five electoral with both campaigns directing the votes each. With the election generally (continued from page 1) bulk of their media advertising to predicted to be extremely close, cam- these states. paign strategists are angling for every Economic Issues and the “The end-game of this advertising electoral vote they can get. 2004 Campaign battle is now purely about reaching the In addition to a media blitz during investors cashed in on the stock mar- 270 Electoral College votes needed, and the run-up to November 2, candidates ket boom—had made it possible for focusing resources on the handful of are traveling non-stop to reach as many the U.S. government to run a surplus states where the result remains in any voters in person as possible. John Kerry from 1998 to 2001, the first in 29 doubt,” said Professor Ken Goldstein, kicked off a nine-day tour of seven years. But, the expansion had run its director of the project and political sci- swing states—Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, course by the time President Bush ence professor at the University of Florida, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and took office, and the economy slipped Wisconsin-Madison. A candidate needs Iowa—on October 14. President Bush into recession for most of 2001. 270 of the total 538 Electoral College the week of October 18 campaigned in Unemployment rose and the stock votes to win the election. New Jersey, Florida, Iowa and market declined by 15 percent. The Voters in Ohio and Florida—states Minnesota. Both Bush and Kerry have September 11 attacks greatly exacer- that the Wisconsin study has described made more than a dozen visits each to bated the economic conditions. as “the center of the advertising The U.S. Department of State is pleased to present its election coverage newsletter, Election Focus 2004. The — BUREAU OF — newsletter will provide non-partisan coverage of the U.S. election process, featuring articles, interviews, public opinion INTERNATIONAL polls, and other information on the presidential primaries, debates, conventions and campaign activities of the major INFORMATION presidential candidates. PROGRAMS Election Focus 2004 is produced by the Democracy and Human Rights team in the Bureau of International Information Programs. THE DEPARTMENT OF STATE If you are interested in receiving this newsletter via a listserv, please send your request to: www.usembassy.de/germany/mailinglists.html 2 ELECTION FOCUS 2004 ELECTION FOCUS 2004 The cornerstone of President also increase certain tax benefits for Bush’s first term domestic economic middle class families for expenses policy has been to reinvigorate the such as childcare and college tuition. economy through four successive tax Kerry has also pledged to work to stop cuts. Bush argues that these tax reduc- companies from sending jobs overseas tions, by leaving more money with by eliminating tax incentives he said individuals and businesses, will enable encourage U.S. companies to ship jobs them to spend and invest and thereby out of the country. Kerry also said he stimulate job-creating growth, which will protect American jobs by enforc- in turn will produce more tax revenue. ing U.S. trade agreements. The cuts have reduced taxes by nearly Both Bush and Kerry also pledge $600 billion during Bush’s term, to take steps to expand health benefits, according to the Office of get coverage for people who don’t have Management and Budget. And while health insurance, implement measures the impact of the tax cuts is hard to to control costs, and improve access to precisely assess, the cuts, along with pharmaceuticals, although their plans the increased federal spending and the to achieve these goals differ. “The end-game of this Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, Reduced tax revenues, the costs of have contributed to the continued advertising battle is now the War on Terror and in Iraq, and growth since 2001. The Congressional other spending increases reduced the purely about reaching the Budget Office is forecasting a 4.5 per- surplus, which peaked at $236 billion cent expansion in 2004, the biggest in 2000, to a $415 billion fiscal deficit 270 Electoral College votes since the 2001 downturn. in 2004. While this is the highest needed, and focusing Concerns about the economy con- dollar amount ever, the 2004 deficit tinue, however, spurred by slow job cre- amounts to 3.6 percent of GDP, well resources on the handful of ation and slow increases in employee below the worse deficit in 1983, which compensation, while the budget deficit was six percent of GDP. Both Bush states where the result grows. Kerry has charged that Bush is and Kerry have promised to cut the remains in any doubt.” the first president in 72 years to preside deficit in half during the next four over an economy that has lost jobs, years. Bush promises to do so by pro- although the President counters that the growth policies and by encouraging most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics “fiscal sanity” in the Congress. Kerry —Professor Ken Goldstein, figures show increases in jobs. Director of the University of Wisconsin said his plan on the deficit includes Advertising Project President Bush has stood by his ending tax cuts for the wealthiest, end- tax cut policy as the correct measure ing tax breaks to big corporations, and to get the economy growing, arguing imposing a real cap on spending.
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