Election FOCUS

October 19, 2004 U.S. Department of State ISSUE 1 • NO 15

Inside This Issue: Bush, Kerry Gear Up for Final

• Bush, Kerry Gear Up for Final Days of Campaign Days of Campaign. . . . . page 1

• Economic Issues and the 2004 Campaign ...... page 1

• Campaign Highlight: The Fight For the Battleground States ...... page 4

FAST FACTS: ✔ Between August and October President Bush waves to supporters as he arrives Democratic presidential candidate Sen. John Kerry at a campaign rally Tuesday, October 19, 2004 in greets supporters at an early vote kickoff rally in 2004, 87 percent of presidential St. Petersburg, Florida. (AP Photo/Pablo Martinez Orlando, Florida on Monday, Oct. 18, 2004. election advertisements have run Monsivais) (AP Photo/Gerald Herbert) in markets that contain only 27 National polls show a statistical dead heat between the two major candidates percent of the electorate. with less than two weeks to go until the 2004 presidential elections. President —Nielsen-Monitor Plus and the University George Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney and their Democratic challengers of Wisconsin Advertising Project Senators John Kerry and John Edwards face a competitive and dramatic final stretch of their election campaigns. The last of three presidential debates concluded on October 13 with a debate (continued on page 2) Economic Issues and the 2004 Campaign Voters’ concerns about their jobs, businesses, government benefits, taxes and general economic conditions are always extremely important in U.S. presidential elections. This year, the economy along with terrorism and the war in Iraq are the important issues in the campaign, according to a variety of polls. President Bush and Senator Kerry have both stressed economic issues in the debates and on the campaign trail, offering competing policies on taxes, health care and other government programs.

To receive this newsletter The 2004 campaign’s economic policy debate goes back to 2000, when the via a listserv go to: U.S. economy reached the end of an extended low inflation, high growth expan- www.usembassy.de/germany/mailinglists.html sion. Rising tax revenues – bolstered by tax revenues from capital gains as (continued on page 2) ELECTION FOCUS 2004

(continued from page 1) storm”—have been the most inundated Florida since March. by political advertisements, since five Both parties are also focusing their on domestic issues in Tempe, Arizona. of the top ten advertising markets in attention on voter turnout and are The debate demonstrated the marked this campaign are cities in those states. organizing efforts to register voters, differences between the candidates and Many residents find the ads helpful, especially their core constituencies, to signaled the beginning of their final but at times overwhelming. “The ads encourage them to vote early where sprint to Election Day on November 2. can be pretty influential in terms of allowed and to help them get to the The candidates reached a nationwide focusing on the main issues that voters polls on Election Day if needed. In six audience during the series of debates, really care about,” said Anne Marie states—Idaho, Maine, Minnesota, New outlining both their foreign and domes- Mulcahy, an Immigration attorney Hampshire, Wisconsin, and tic platforms, and are now—along with from Miami Beach, Florida. “But at Wyoming—voters can register as late their families and supporters—devot- some point after hearing these ads day as Election Day itself, making predict- ing most of their time and money to in and day out, I think voters get ing eventual winners even less reliable. winning the vote in the 10 so-called advertisement fatigue.” In Ohio and Groups that are especially being swing states that many experts say will Florida, the candidates spent over 19 targeted by Republicans include decide the 2004 election. million dollars in television Evangelical Christians, who experts According to a study by Nielsen advertisements alone the week before say overwhelmingly support President Monitor-plus and the University of the final debate, airing ads a total of Bush but had a low turnout in the 2000 Wisconsin Advertising Project 17,000 times. election. Democrats are reaching out in released on October 12, Colorado, Ohio and Florida together control similar fashion to minority voters, one Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, 47 Electoral College votes, but heavy of their core constituencies, especially New Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, media campaigns are also taking place in urban areas of the country. ■ Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are key in states such as New Mexico and swing states in the upcoming election Nevada which have only five electoral with both campaigns directing the votes each. With the election generally (continued from page 1) bulk of their media advertising to predicted to be extremely close, cam- these states. paign strategists are angling for every Economic Issues and the “The end-game of this advertising electoral vote they can get. 2004 Campaign battle is now purely about reaching the In addition to a media blitz during investors cashed in on the stock mar- 270 Electoral College votes needed, and the run-up to November 2, candidates ket boom—had made it possible for focusing resources on the handful of are traveling non-stop to reach as many the U.S. government to run a surplus states where the result remains in any voters in person as possible. John Kerry from 1998 to 2001, the first in 29 doubt,” said Professor Ken Goldstein, kicked off a nine-day tour of seven years. But, the expansion had run its director of the project and political sci- swing states—Nevada, Wisconsin, Ohio, course by the time President Bush ence professor at the University of Florida, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and took office, and the economy slipped Wisconsin-Madison. A candidate needs Iowa—on October 14. President Bush into recession for most of 2001. 270 of the total 538 Electoral College the week of October 18 campaigned in Unemployment rose and the stock votes to win the election. New Jersey, Florida, Iowa and market declined by 15 percent. The Voters in Ohio and Florida—states Minnesota. Both Bush and Kerry have September 11 attacks greatly exacer- that the Wisconsin study has described made more than a dozen visits each to bated the economic conditions. as “the center of the advertising

The U.S. Department of State is pleased to present its election coverage newsletter, Election Focus 2004. The — BUREAU OF — newsletter will provide non-partisan coverage of the U.S. election process, featuring articles, interviews, public opinion INTERNATIONAL polls, and other information on the presidential primaries, debates, conventions and campaign activities of the major INFORMATION presidential candidates. PROGRAMS Election Focus 2004 is produced by the Democracy and Human Rights team in the Bureau of International Information Programs. THE DEPARTMENT OF STATE If you are interested in receiving this newsletter via a listserv, please send your request to: www.usembassy.de/germany/mailinglists.html

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The cornerstone of President also increase certain tax benefits for Bush’s first term domestic economic middle class families for expenses policy has been to reinvigorate the such as childcare and college tuition. economy through four successive tax Kerry has also pledged to work to stop cuts. Bush argues that these tax reduc- companies from sending jobs overseas tions, by leaving more money with by eliminating tax incentives he said individuals and businesses, will enable encourage U.S. companies to ship jobs them to spend and invest and thereby out of the country. Kerry also said he stimulate job-creating growth, which will protect American jobs by enforc- in turn will produce more tax revenue. ing U.S. trade agreements. The cuts have reduced taxes by nearly Both Bush and Kerry also pledge $600 billion during Bush’s term, to take steps to expand health benefits, according to the Office of get coverage for people who don’t have Management and Budget. And while health insurance, implement measures the impact of the tax cuts is hard to to control costs, and improve access to precisely assess, the cuts, along with pharmaceuticals, although their plans the increased federal spending and the to achieve these goals differ. “The end-game of this Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts, Reduced tax revenues, the costs of have contributed to the continued advertising battle is now the War on Terror and in Iraq, and growth since 2001. The Congressional other spending increases reduced the purely about reaching the Budget Office is forecasting a 4.5 per- surplus, which peaked at $236 billion cent expansion in 2004, the biggest in 2000, to a $415 billion fiscal deficit 270 Electoral College votes since the 2001 downturn. in 2004. While this is the highest needed, and focusing Concerns about the economy con- dollar amount ever, the 2004 deficit tinue, however, spurred by slow job cre- amounts to 3.6 percent of GDP, well resources on the handful of ation and slow increases in employee below the worse deficit in 1983, which compensation, while the budget deficit was six percent of GDP. Both Bush states where the result grows. Kerry has charged that Bush is and Kerry have promised to cut the remains in any doubt.” the first president in 72 years to preside deficit in half during the next four over an economy that has lost jobs, years. Bush promises to do so by pro- although the President counters that the growth policies and by encouraging most recent Bureau of Labor Statistics “fiscal sanity” in the Congress. Kerry —Professor Ken Goldstein, figures show increases in jobs. Director of the University of Wisconsin said his plan on the deficit includes Advertising Project President Bush has stood by his ending tax cuts for the wealthiest, end- tax cut policy as the correct measure ing tax breaks to big corporations, and to get the economy growing, arguing imposing a real cap on spending. that the government spends the tax- The pressures on the U.S. budget payers’ money and with tax cuts, the will sharply increase by the end of the taxpayers can keep more of their 2004-2008 presidential term as the money and can spend it as they wish. first members of the baby boom gen- “It’s your money,” he said in the eration born between 1946 and 1964 October 13 debate in Tempe, Arizona start retiring. These retirements will Kerry says that the Bush tax cuts put greater and prolonged pressure on have mostly benefited the richest 2 the budget as payments for the Social percent of the country, and if he is Security income insurance program elected, will instead adjust the tax cuts and old age medical programs, such as so that they go the middle class, by Medicare, sharply increase even as the giving a tax cut to Americans who number of taxpayers decreases. ■ earn under $200,000 a year. He will

USA.USEMBASSY.DE 3 ELECTION FOCUS 2004 Campaign★★Highlight

The Battleground States

As the November 2 presidential ments and candidate visits to states Battleground states do not have election draws near, President Bush and where they believe they can achieve to have a large number of Electoral his Democratic challenger, Senator victory. College votes. The 2004 election is John Kerry, are directing their A study by Nielsen Monitor-plus expected to be close, so even a small resources and time to a few crucial and the University of Wisconsin state with a few Electoral College votes “battleground” or “swing” states which Advertising Project published on can give the candidate the winning experts say either candidate could win October 12 named Colorado, Florida, margin. on election day. While there is no con- Iowa, Michigan, Minnesota, New Here is a look at some of the issues sensus on the number of battleground Mexico, Nevada, Ohio, Wisconsin and in each of these battleground states: states—up to 17 states are typically Pennsylvania as the key swing states cited as being in this group—pollsters where the campaigns are directing the OHIO differ on which are the swing states, bulk of their media advertising. Many President Bush defeated former and they can change as the campaign experts also cite West Virginia, Oregon Vice President Al Gore in 2000 in develops. Republican and Democratic and New Hampshire as battleground Ohio—a state with 27 Electoral strategists, however, have their own lists states. College votes—by less than three per- and are directing political advertise-

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cent of the vote, and has visited the PENNSYLVANIA in 1980 and 1984. state more than 14 times since he was In the past three presidential elec- With 10 electoral votes, Wisconsin elected. tions, Democrats won this state's 21 has lost 75,000 manufacturing job Key issues for Ohioans include electoral votes. Registered Democratic since the last presidential election. the loss of manufacturing jobs—about voters outnumber registered About 12 percent of Wisconsin's vot- 265,000 since 2000—and high Republicans by almost half a million. ers are veterans, so the war in Iraq, unemployment. Experts believe that However, Republican presidential can- defense issues and veteran benefits the record number of new voter didates carried Pennsylvania in 1980, are topics of interest. registrations—the state has recorded 1984 and 1988. over 600,000 new voters as of October IOWA The state’s older voters will be 4—will determine the outcome of the looking at the candidates’ positions on Iowa, with seven electoral presidential election in Ohio this year. health care issues such as prescription votes, last voted for a Republican presidential candidate in 1984. FLORIDA - drug legislation and Medicare, while the state’s steel producing regions will Chairman of the Bush-Cheney The extremely close vote and be concerned with trade issues. 2004 Iowa Leadership Team David controversial recounts in 2000 high- Democrats have three advantages Roederer said that Iowa was one of lighted the impact that a single state seven states where the difference can have on the election's outcome. in Pennsylvania: Democratic Governor Ed Rendell's ability to deliver votes; between the presidential candidates in In the 2004 campaign, both the regional success of liberal voter 2000 was less than a percentage point. candidates are addressing Florida’s mobilization groups such as America The Republicans lost by 4,100 votes. large immigrant population. Bush is Coming Together and the Partnership Democrats, inspired by Al Gore's promoting a “guest-worker” plan— for America's Families; and the 2000 victory with the assistance of officially known as the Border popularity of Teresa Heinz Kerry, Democratic Iowa Governor Tom Security and Immigration widow of the former Pennsylvania Vilsack, are campaigning on themes Improvement Act, while Kerry is senator John Heinz and now John of jobs, the economy, health care, promoting “earned citizenship”— Kerry's wife. insurance, education and opposition legalization and citizenship reform to free trade. for undocumented immigrants. WEST VIRGINIA OREGON The state's large senior citizen Until the 2000 presidential elec- population, a major voting bloc, will tion, West Virginia had voted Democrats have won in the last be looking at the candidates' positions Republican in only three of the previ- three presidential elections in Oregon, on such issues as Medicare, prescrip- ous 18 presidential elections, each which has seven electoral votes. tion drugs and proposals to partially time for a Republican incumbent. However, Republicans won nine of the privatize the investment of Social Economic development and the future 10 elections from 1948 to 1984, with Security funds. Other significant of the coal industry are dominant elec- the exception of Lyndon Johnson’s Florida constituencies are African- tion themes in this state with five 1964 landslide victory. Americans, Cuban-Americans and Electoral College votes. West Virginia Despite a liberal social record veterans. has a large veteran population, and that includes support for same-sex Many experts cite the popularity each candidate is targeting his West marriage, medicinal marijuana and of Florida Governor Jeb Bush Virginia message to security and mili- physician-assisted suicide, voters (President Bush’s brother)—especially tary service issues as well. defeated a plan in 2002 to raise taxes after his widely praised handling of to fund universal health care, which the series of hurricanes that struck WISCONSIN some view as a sign of emerging Florida this year—as a potential factor Wisconsin has voted for the fiscal conservatism. in the Republican party’s chances to Democratic candidate in four of the In 2000, Gore beat Bush by less secure the 27 Electoral College votes last six presidential elections, crossing than 7,000 votes in the state. But in this state. over to support Republican Ronald with Ralph Nader—the independent Reagan in his two landslide victories

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candidate who is often cited as taking computer-technology sector. Kerry's numbers—the state’s employment rate votes away from Democratic candi- proposes to strengthen this sector had been as high as 7 percent in dates—not on the Oregon ballot in through his to plan to stimulate 2003—the economy, especially job 2004, the Democrats are hopeful that economic growth by cutting taxes on creation, remains the key issue in they may win the state more easily. small businesses and research. this state known for manufacturing Republicans counter that President automobiles. NEW MEXICO Bush's tax cuts already have created Considered a bellwether state, thousands of jobs in New Hampshire. MINNESOTA New Mexico, with five electoral votes, This state has voted Democratic has supported every winning president COLORADO in every election since 1972, but since 1912 except in 1976. A ballot measure that would allow Al Gore won by only a slim margin Democratic Governor Bill Richardson, Colorado to split its nine Electoral in 2000. While Democrats in the past who is of Hispanic origin, may be College votes proportionally—all could rely on Minnesota’s farmers and influential in delivering votes from the other states have a winner-take-all sys- laborers for support, the state has been largest Hispanic population in the tem except for Maine and Nebraska— leaning increasingly Republican with nation. has put the state in the spotlight this its election of a Republican governor The “guest worker” immigration election and senator in 2002, and an increasing initiative, promoted by President Bush, year. The measure will go into effect number of Republican Congressmen and the Democratic alternative of immediately, if approved. However, and members of the state legislature. “earned citizenship” are designed to if the presidential election’s outcome Minnesota has 10 Electoral College appeal to Hispanic voters. ends up depending on Colorado’s votes. electoral votes, legal challenges can NEW HAMPSHIRE be expected that could easily end up NEVADA in the U.S. Supreme Court, according This traditionally conservative President Bush won Nevada in the to the Washington Post. state, in which Republicans outnumber 2000 election, but recent polls showed Kerry gaining ground in this state with Democrats in registration 36.7 percent MICHIGAN to 25.6 percent, has voted for the five Electoral College votes. Both Republican candidate in six of the past Michigan is frequently cited as a parties have registered a record num- eight presidential elections. However, swing state. Voters have not supported ber of voters. Democrats now outnum- in 1996, Bill Clinton beat Bob Dole a Republican candidate since 1988. Al ber Republicans in this traditionally by an almost 10-point margin. Gore won by just five percentage Republican state. points in the 2000 election, so New Hampshire, with a popula- Proposals such as the U.S. Republicans view the state—and its 17 Department of Energy’s recommenda- tion of 1.3 million and four electoral Electoral College votes—as a possible votes, gained over 13,000 new jobs tion to use Nevada’s Yucca Mountain gain in 2004. President Bush has visit- as a depository for nuclear fuel and in the past year, 70 percent of which ed the state more than 20 times. paid more than the national average. waste—a measure that President Bush Although Michigan has shown supports—has made the environment a New Hampshire has a strong some improvement in unemployment key issue. ■

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