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THE HINDU CHENNAI FRIDAY, MARCH 1, 2019 OPED 11 EEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE

YES, NO, IT’S COMPLICATED Will Priyanka Gandhi change the fortunes of the Congress?

YES and Raman Singh have es. In the process, a Con­ Vishwanath Pratap Singh, Narayan amongst the upper castes. Her connect with women and her experience all successfully cultivat­ gress revival at the grass­ Dutt Tiwari and Sripati Mishra. The­ At the macro level, Ms. Vadra will in campaign management will help the party ed this image of vikas- roots level can be a possi­ reafter, it has been the Mandal ver­ be an equal to Congress president waadi (pro­develop­ bility somewhere in the sus Kamandal theme, where power Rahul Gandhi in national cam­ I believe that Priyanka Gandhi Va­ there are no ‘pan­Indian’ national ment) Chief Ministers. future, if not in this has circulated mainly between Ya­ paigns. She will also help modify dra will make a positive difference parties, nor are there leaders with Eastern U.P. is a caul­ round. davs and Dalits. With Yogi Aditya­ the ‘Rahul versus Modi’ pitch. Be­ to the fortunes of the Congress, al­ such an appeal. The image of a pan­ dron of poverty and un­ nath becoming Chief Minister (he is sides enthusing workers, she will beit for reasons different from what Indian party or leader is manufac­ derdevelopment, await­ Politics over the years known to have a Rajput lineage), it lend an ear to workers and local the proponents of dynasty politics tured by political advertising done ing its turn for roads, hospitals, However, this argument is open to is a revival of the politics of the up­ politicians who have complaints would like us to believe . Calcula­ most effectively by active participa­ electricity and other public servic­ the criticism whether the Congress per castes in U.P., this time in com­ against Akhilesh Yadav and Maya­ Manisha Priyam tions of realpolitik are responsible tion in election campaigns. And if es. Besides, women have emerged elevated her for doing noble politi­ bination with dominant leaders wati — not all the anti­incumbency is an Associate Professor for her having come to the forefront victory comes by, then spending as an important demand group for cal deeds without expecting politi­ from amongst the Backward Class­ votes will go to the BJP. Meanwhile, of educational policy at of the electoral arena. Until now, State budgets on advertising the developmental deliveries. It is in cal fruits. Far from it — the Congress es or in alliance with splinter forma­ her effort will be to bring a crop of the National University her role in politics was limited — at leaders — especially their work in this context that Ms. Vadra’s soft ap­ understands that its last round of tions of the Extremely Backward karyakartas of the Congress on the of Educational Planning best a “fieldwork in­charge” of Rae development and welfare. It is State proach, connect with women, and State politics was played in the Classes. In an overt sort of way, it is streets, irrespective of who wins and Administration Bareli and Amethi in Uttar Pradesh. politics that has been producing prior experience of campaign man­ 1970s with Brahmin Chief Ministers this BJP move that gives Ms. Vadra the battle in U.P. Times have company­style CEOs in a democra­ agement in this region will come to like Kamalapati Tripathi, Hemvati the opportunity to begin discus­ changed since the 1970s, and the No pan-Indian parties/ leaders cy — Chandrababu Naidu was the her aid. She can at least connect Nandan Bahuguna, and Narayan sions with important caste groups Congress has realised that the new For one, the Congress understands first amongst Chief Ministers to with poor voters, especially wo­ Dutt Tiwari, and then in the 1980s such as the Brahmins, and initiate script of post­Mandal politics holds that the route to power is by taking have been anointed in this way. Nit­ men, and build a constituency that with a combination of Rajput and issue­based discussions on reserva­ opportunities in U.P. that Ms. Vadra Assembly elections seriously — ish Kumar, Shivraj Singh Chouhan demands delivery of public servic­ Brahmin Chief Ministers such as tions for the economically poor could very well nurture.

Her charisma is not enough. The party needs a ner­up in only six seats. progress on the organisa­ has substantial support from the that will depend more on local fac­ NO This means it would be tion front and mobilised Yadavs, Jatavs, a section of the Jats, tors than the entry of Ms. Vadra. strong organisational structure and cadre the primary opponent the support of new com­ as well as Muslims. Hence, if the Congress wins in in only eight seats. In munities behind it. The Kushinagar or Barabanki or Saha­ It seems unlikely that Priyanka 71; its ally, the Apna Dal, won two; vote percentage terms , party seems to be lacking Limited capability ranpur, credit for it would go to Gandhi Vadra’s ‘formal’ entry into the SP won five; the Congress won the BJP­Apna Dal got on both counts. Its organ­ Where does the Congress stand in former MP R.P.N. Singh or P.L. Pu­ politics would drastically improve two; and the BSP and RLD did not around 43% of the votes isation has been in poor this highly polarised scenario, and nia or Imran Masood, who have the party’s electoral fortunes in win any. However, the SP and BSP in 2014, the SP­BSP­RLD shape since the early which are the communities that will considerable influence and com­ U.P. in the general election. In elec­ were in the second position in 65 got 42.98%, while the Congress 1990s and continues to have pro­ be voting for it this time, just be­ mitted supporters in their regions. toral politics, a combination of or­ seats, while their ally in the Maha­ could get only 7.53%. In this scena­ blems such as groupism and a lack cause of Ms. Vadra? In the absence The local electoral equation is also Rajan Pandey ganisation, ground­level equations, gathbandhan, the RLD, was the rio, while it’s likely that the BJP­Ap­ of cadres. In contrast, the BJP, SP of an organisational structure, favourable to them. is a freelance caste/community dynamics, and runner­up in one seat. Thus, if we na Dal alliance and the SP­BSP­RLD and BSP, and even the RLD in west­ cadre, programmes, and newer so­ In politics, charisma does work, journalist and charisma is needed for success, and go by the past Lok Sabha results, alliance will be in a neck and neck ern U.P., can boast of a robust or­ cial sections rooting for it, the capa­ but not without proper organisa­ co-author of the Congress seems to be lacking in the BJP­Apna Dal alliance will be the contest, expecting the Congress to ganisation and cadre. In terms of bility of the Congress to efficiently tion and social engineering. Ms. Va­ ‘Battleground U.P.: all of these in U.P. except the last. primary contestant in the whole of reach even the two­digit mark in support of communities, the BJP al­ contest and micromanage these dra may be able to revive the U.P. Politics in the Land of U.P. and will face the SP­BSP­RLD the State would be overambitious. liance is influential among the up­ elections is extremely limited. That Congress in the long run, if she con­ Ram’ The 2014 election results alliance as primary opponents in at Still, the Congress’s electoral for­ per castes and some sections of doesn’t mean that the Congress’s tinues dedicatedly in politics, but In the 2014 elections, out of the 80 least 71 seats. Other than winning tunes would have turned around non­Yadav OBCs and non­Jatav Da­ numbers would remain static ; it that is surely going to take some Lok Sabha seats in U.P., the BJP won two seats, the Congress was a run­ for good had it made substantial lits, while the SP­BSP­RLD alliance may win three­four more seats. But time. It is not going to happen now.

IT'S She cannot bank on her family name and star the fray a bit late, but the she implemented . In a peal amongst the youth and first­ the bleakest moment for the Con­ COMPLICATED moot question is, what survey in which I was in­ time voters, as well as Brahmins, gress, and struggled to find a narra­ status; she needs a narrative does she stand for? volved, some time back Muslims, and women. Mr. Modi tive. Mr. Gandhi today seems to What is the narrative in Punjab, it was quite a captured the imagination of the as­ have found not only a narrative but Politics is a complex matrix of mul­ the image of being bold, having the and can she correctly surprise that in Ambed­ pirational youth in 2014. Ms. Vadra a new purpose in his virulent polit­ tiple variables and it is always diffi­ ability to take risks, being honest, identify the moment kar colonies, elderly Da­ can upset this equation in a major ical criticism of the BJP and the cult to predict which of them will and having good intent. Today, Mr. and articulate it? In the lits spoke of Mrs. Gandhi way provided she has a narrative. Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh. He make the final splash. Among them, Modi is being tested on the same facelessness of the neo­ with affection. They nar­ With a persistent agrarian crisis is, perhaps, the only politician in one that stands out is the ability of a lines. His vote bank perhaps still liberal reforms and their conse­ rated stories of being given ration and jobless growth, what substan­ India today who is creating a fresh leader to gain the trust of the elec­ trusts his intent, but has started to quences, having a face to identify cards, housing and electricity. Ms. tial difference can she bring? narrative against what the RSS Ajay Gudavarthy torate, which in turn depends on doubt his abilities to manage the with is something that can be an en­ Vadra will be tested against such a stands for. It is this new­found con­ teaches at the Centre what he or she stands for at a given economy, create jobs and abate the try point to gain the trust of the memory, which could be a boon, Criticism of the BJP fidence that has made the BJP stand for Political Studies, point of time. Prime Minister Na­ agrarian crisis, among others. Vo­ electorate, but it needs to speak to but also a bane if she fails to articu­ Mr. Modi filled the gap with jumlas up and take notice. Jawaharlal Nehru rendra Modi gained the trust of vo­ ters are in a contemplative mood as what the people want to listen to. late a welfare and pro­poor sensibil­ and slogans . Perhaps, she cannot Ms. Vadra today needs a script in University, New Delhi ters by articulating the political mo­ to what to do with a person who is Merely claiming ‘Indira is back’ is ity in her electoral agenda. resort to any of these, but in that order to make a significant diffe­ ment of his time by combining honest but incompetent. symptomatic of lazy thinking. Mrs. case, what meaningful agenda can rence. To assume that her family #21659 aggressive Hindutva with develop­ Gandhi is still remembered in the The need for a narrative she bring to the persistent structu­ name and star status will see her ment that was along the line of the Voters’ memories hinterlands and especially among Ms. Vadra’s entry has sent a panic ral crisis of the Indian economy? through would be taking the electo­ ‘Gujarat model’. To this he added Priyanka Gandhi Vadra has entered the Dalits for the welfare policies wave in the BJP because of her ap­ Rahul Gandhi entered politics at rate for granted.

CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC SINGLE FILE FROM ARCHIVES FIFTY YEARS AGO MARCH 1, 1969 Small fish in a big pond Deficit finance of Rs. 250 crores The Union Budget for 1969­70, presented to the Lok Sabha to­ Small parties remain outsiders in their day [February 28, New Delhi] by Mr. Morarji Desai, envisages a own State, but can be coalition deficit of the order of Rs. 250 crores. Mr. Desai sai d the reve­ nue receipts for the current year (1968­69) were Rs. 2,749 partners at the Centre crores, Rs. 11 crores less than the estimated Rs. 2, 760 crores. Expenditure was also higher by Rs. 116 crores, at Rs. 2 ,629 Andrew Wyatt & C. Manikandan crores. For the Budget year 1969­70, Mr. Desai estim ated the Political parties in India operate in a fed­ revenues at current rates of taxation at Rs. 2,900 c rores. Mr. eral system. They seek power at the lo­ Desai said the total gross revenue of the Centre including addi­ cal, State and national levels. Holding of­ tional taxation in 1969­70 would be Rs. 3,519 crores of which fice at the State level is the primary goal Rs. 519 crores would accrue to the States. He assume d credit of most parties. Yet, a succession of for a higher level of internal borrowing – Rs. 106 crores in 1969­ hung parliaments from 1989 to 2014 70 against Rs. 81 crores in 1968­69 – and external b orrowings BIJOY GHOSH created the expectation that small par­ Rs. 691 crores against Rs. 685 crores in 1968­69. Of the fresh ties, maybe with a single MP, might be vital for the governing tax yield the Centre’s share would be Rs 100 crores – Rs 80 coalition. Cabinet posts and/or other inducements en cour­ crores from excise, Rs. 11 crores from direct taxes and Rs. 9 aged political entrepreneurs to form parties, most of which crores from customs. The States would get Rs. 27 crores as remain small and did not grow into regional parties l arge their share. The deficit for the current year is Rs. 30 crores less enough to govern their own States. We define a small party than the original estimate of Rs. 290 crores. The revenue esti­ as capable of winning a few seats in a State Assembly and oc­ mates for 1969­70, Mr. Desai said, showed an increase of Rs. 151 CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC casionally in Parliament. Small parties do not have the heft CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC crores, at the existing taxation level. to lead a State­level government and may lack opportunities DATA POINT A HUNDRED YEARS AGO MARCH 1, 1919. to get a place in a State­level coalition government. Ironical­ ly, fragmented national legislatures give small part ies more Murder of Police Officer. opportunities to participate in coalitions in Delhi. This na­ Further details are to hand of the outrage on the lives of a Re­ tional toehold helps many of them survive while they have serve Police Searching Party at Mavoothanpatti, near Am ­ little success in their own States. For example, the Lok Jan­ mayanayakanur Railway Station in the District of Madura, the shakti Party found national opportunities relatively easily news of which I telegraphed to you this morning [February but got a place in the Bihar Cabinet only recently. 28]. For over a year and a half, I am told there hav e been re­ In Tamil Nadu, the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) respond­ ported a series of cases of thefts of bags of rice, chillies or oth­ ed to federal opportunities, while being excluded fr om go­ er food­stuffs from running goods trains during nights bet­ vernment in its home State. Outside of the State govern­ ween stations Kodaikanal Road and Ambaturai: and the ment, the PMK finds it difficult to establish distinctive attempts made on the part of the Railway Police on various oc­ positions, apart from its identity politics. On the other hand, casions to apprehend the criminals and to recover the proper­ it tried to leverage national opportunities for its benefit at ty lost had been fruitless. Even quite recently a few days ago a the State level. Projects were funded in favoured constituen­ similar theft of four or five gunny bags of chillies had occurred cies and MPs lobbied in Delhi for benefits at the State level. and the Railway Police have been taken to task for their want Anbumani Ramadoss used his ministerial experience to en­ of sufficient vigilance. hance his image at the State level, making it the centrepiece of his 2016 Assembly election campaign. A place in P arlia­ CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC ment confers prestige on small parties and a national stage on which to perform. Patronage resources can be extracted CONCEPTUAL from the Members of Parliament Local Area Development Differential reproduction Scheme and coalition allies. The PMK enters the NDA i n Biology 2019 with a promise from the Centre of a new rail co nnec­ tion between Morappur and Dharmapuri. This refers to the difference in the reproductive success rate of Maurice Duverger famously argued that small parties, various individual members or groups within a species. Diffe­ without geographically concentrated support, cannot win rential reproduction could be due to a number of reasons in­ in a plurality voting system such as India’s. Voters will turn cluding the specific genetic make­up of individuals or groups away from small parties that lose. For their part, small par­ which might make some of them better suited for the purpose ties are likely to die out or seek mergers with larger parties. of reproduction when compared to others. Characteristics The working of India’s federal political system gives sma ll like height, intelligence, disease resistance, etc. are some ex­ parties opportunities to join alliances. Small parti es might amples of factors that could explain the differential reproduc­ ‘lose’ by failing to join governments in their home State, but tive success of different members within a species. Reproduc­ they can claim to ‘win’ when they join a national co alition tive success is considered an important determinant of government. Thus, they remain outsiders in their own State, groups that are favoured by the process of natural selection. but can be a coalition partner at the Centre. With the nation­ CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC al outcome uncertain in May 2019, small parties have been able to bargain for seats in Lok Sabha with renewed vigour. MORE ON THE WEB 3 Soon, we shall see if they hold the balance of power. Watch: How the famous 'kadalai urundai' is made at Kariyapatti near Madurai Andrew Wyatt teaches politics at the University of Bristol, and C. Manikandan is an independent scholar http://bit.ly/kadalaiurundai

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