New Runway Project

New Runway Project PRELIMINARY DRAFT MAJOR DEVELOPMENT PLAN VOLUME A: BACKGROUND AND NEED SECTIONS 1-7 MAY 2018 03 Options and Alternatives 70 New Runway Project | Preliminary Draft Major Development Plan May 2018 03 Options and Alternatives Options03 and Alternatives This section provides detail of what options and alternative where considered when planning for the New Runway Project (NRP). Detail is also provided on the following areas: • What options were considered and why they are not viable? • Why is the new runway the preferred option to meet the projected demand? 71 03 Options and Alternatives As part of the initial planning for 3.1 No-Change Scenario customers (public and businesses) the new runway, several options and a reduction in passenger The existing runway system reaches were identified and assessed before growth. Further information on capacity during peak periods and determining that the new runway is delays is provided in Section 2. this was most evident in 2013. Not the most appropriate development constructing additional runway Figure 3-1 shows the relationship to meet the future demand for air capacity and making no changes to between the likely average delay at services for Perth. the way in which the current runway Perth Airport and projected aircraft • no-change scenario system operates will: movements if no additional runway • more from existing infrastructure • impact the efficient movement capacity is provided. Simulation at Perth Airport of aircraft and cause increasing modelling has shown that the • increased use of other airports delays for flights, and average flight delay would increase • Perth Airport aviation • constrain growth, seeing a from an average of a five-minute development plan options reduction in the number of delay in 2016 to 34 minutes by 2045. • new runway alternate locations people that would otherwise have With this being an annual average • preferred new runway option travelled by air to and from Perth. delay, in 2045 there would be some aircraft experiencing delays of These impacts would have a flow-on several hours daily. effect and would result in economic losses to Perth and the wider State. An average 34 minute delay is unacceptable to airlines, passengers 3.1.1 Delays Without the and aviation dependant companies. New Runway Significant impacts are experienced The United States Federal Aviation when delays start to consistently Administration (FAA) considers be five to seven-minutes. Therefore, a flight delayed if, for operational to reduce the likelihood of delay, reasons, air traffic holds an aircraft airlines would need to either: at the gate, short of the runway, on • change flight times to times of the runway, on a taxiway, and/or in lower runway demand, a holding configuration anywhere • introduce larger aircraft to achieve en-route. Therefore, by definition, a higher volumes of passenger per delay to an aircraft on the ground aircraft movement, or is the time taken for an aircraft to • discontinue services by pass through the runway system repositioning aircraft to routes/ (including airspace) unconstrained, markets without the delays. compared to the time taken for an A decision to change the time of aircraft to pass through the system a flight at one port has a flow-on when constraints exist. impact to fleet scheduling (how Delays to aircraft operations cause aircraft are allocated the roster of disruptions to the travelling public, flights), passenger connections extra costs to airlines and their to other flights, and crewing and Domestic aircraft ('000) 300 International aircraft ('000) 35 General aviation aircraft ('000) 30 250 Average delay (minutes) 25 200 20 150 15 100 10 50 5 in minutes Delay Aircraft Movements (000’s) Movements Aircraft 0 0 2021 2031 2018 2019 2041 2027 2037 2022 2025 2023 2032 2035 2033 2028 2038 2024 2026 2029 2039 2036 2042 2034 2045 2043 2020 2030 2044 2040 Figure 3‑1 Comparison of likely average delay with aircraft movements Source: NATS and Tourism Futures International 72 New Runway Project | Preliminary Draft Major Development Plan May 2018 03 Options and Alternatives ground-handling staff rostering. and the need to integrate with airline industry and its passengers Pilots and flight crews operate to constraints at Australia’s East Coast of delays was $72 million per year. strict rostering restrictions, and airports, particularly the night time Qantas publicly stated that it given the long flight distances curfew at Sydney Airport and time estimated that the annual impact to and from Perth, this can have zone differences. Intrastate airline of runway delays at Perth Airport a significant cost impact. Thus, flight schedules reflect the strong cost $10.8 million per year, while the airlines have limited scheduling market preference/requirement Chamber of Minerals and Energy opportunities or ‘windows’ for air services that integrate with Western Australia stated that a within which Perth flights can be the operating logistics of resource one-hour delay at a mine site cost scheduled. operations (mines and LNG plants). approximately $100,000. If airlines are unable to schedule The impact on air services would 3.1.2 Constraints on Growth services in response to market differ in some respects for each Without the New Runway preference and wider logistical market if Perth Airport does imperatives, the viability of the not have the capacity to meet The no-change scenario would services is compromised, and flights airline scheduling preferences/ constrain the number of movements are likely to be discontinued, either requirements, however the following that can occur at Perth Airport. because they become loss making, common impacts can be expected: The extent to which airlines will or because it becomes more • loss of services (less choice for forgo scheduling additional flights profitable to deploy the aircraft to Western Australians in terms of in the absence of additional runway other markets. where to fly and when to fly), capacity was modelled based on • higher airfares due to higher unit aircraft movement projections. In addition, the competing operating costs for remaining services and Simulation modelling completed by environments of international, less supply of aircraft seats to Perth Airport shows that by 2045, interstate and intrastate airlines meet the available demand, and without additional runway capacity dictate the need for flights to • loss of economic opportunity for being provided, approximately 140 depart in line with set schedules. Western Australia, reflecting the aircraft movements will be forgone International airline schedules reflect knock-on impact on tourism and each day (or approximately 51,000 both market preferences and the resources companies. per year). need to integrate with schedules in large hub airports in Asia and the These costs were quantified at the An economic impact assessment Middle East and through to endpoint height of the mining boom when considered a more conservative destinations, particularly Europe and demand for capacity peaked. capacity restriction of approximately UK. Interstate airline flight schedules In 2012, a State Treasury report 25,000 aircraft movements per year. reflect both market preference estimated that the impact to the This is shown in Figure 3-2. 300 With new runway Without new runway 200 100 0 Aircraft Aircraft (000’s) Movements 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 Figure 3‑2 Comparison of annual total aircraft movements with and without the new runway Source: ACIL Allen Consulting 40000 With new runway Without new runway 30000 20000 10000 Passengers (000’s) Passengers 0 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030 2033 2036 2039 2042 2045 Figure 3‑3 Comparison of annual total passenger numbers with and without the new runway from 2018 to 2045 Source: ACIL Allen Consulting New Runway Project | Volume A: Background and Need 73 03 Options and Alternatives The total number of domestic 3.1.3 Demand Management 3.1.3.2 Aircraft Size Restrictions and international passengers at If the new runway is not constructed, Aircraft size restrictions is when Perth Airport with and without in an effort to ameliorate the an airport imposes minimum sizes additional runway capacity in each adverse consequences of for aircraft operating during a peak year to 2045 is shown in Figure uncontrolled demand, including period. The effect of this policy 3-3. The passenger projections delays and congestion, demand would be to cause airlines to use without additional runway capacity management initiatives (both larger aircraft at peak times, thereby incorporate an ‘up-gauging’ factor economic and regulatory) could be maintaining the level of passenger whereby it is assumed that airlines further explored. These initiatives capacity but reducing the overall will respond to the constraint, in include peak pricing and aircraft number of aircraft that use the part, by increasing aircraft size. size restrictions. However, industry runway. This would also require the Specifically, it is assumed that experience has shown these are not destination or departure airport passenger movements per aircraft effective over a long period of time. to be able to accommodate these would grow at 0.3 per cent a year larger aircraft, which could see many without additional runway capacity. 3.1.3.1 Peak (or Congestion) regional airports needing to be The unmet domestic and Pricing upgraded or expanded. Peak pricing involves charging international passenger demand Many of the flights that operate airlines higher prices to use the in the absence of additional during the Perth Airport’s peak airport in periods of high demand. runway capacity (the difference periods service FIFO operations and In theory, this would act as a in passenger numbers with and regional Western Australia. As such, price signal to airlines to move without additional runway capacity) the demand management measures, flights to a time of day when it is is shown in Figure 3-4. By 2045, if they were effective, would cheaper for them to operate.

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