Does ISIS Really Differ from Other Terrorist Groups; If So, How Does Its Singularity Complicate US Efforts to Defeat It?

Home , Bruce Thornton, Kimberly Kagan, Middle East Forum, Raymond Ibrahim

Issue 29 • February 2016

Does ISIS really differ from other terrorist groups; if so, how does its singularity complicate US efforts to defeat it?

IN THIS ISSUE Mark Moyar • Pete R. Mansoor Raymond Ibrahim Contents Editorial Board February 2016 · Issue 29 Victor Davis Hanson, Chair Bruce Thornton David Berkey Background Essay Contributing Members Typologies of Terrorism Peter Berkowitz by Mark Moyar Max Boot Josiah Bunting III Angelo M. Codevilla Featured Commentary Thomas Donnelly Why ISIS Is Different—and Why It Matters Colonel Joseph Felter by Peter R. Mansoor Josef Joffe ISIS: The Latest Phase of the Jihad Frederick W. Kagan by Raymond Ibrahim Kimberly Kagan Edward N. Luttwak Peter R. Mansoor Educational Materials Walter Russell Mead Discussion Questions Mark Moyar Williamson Murray Ralph Peters Suggestions for Further Reading Andrew Roberts Admiral Gary Roughead Kori Schake Kiron K. Skinner Barry Strauss Gil-li Vardi Bing West Miles Maochun Yu Amy Zegart

ABOUT THE POSTERS IN THIS ISSUE Documenting the wartime viewpoints and diverse political sentiments of the twentieth century, the Hoover Institution Library & Archives Poster Collection has more than one hundred thousand posters from around the world and continues to grow. Thirty-three thousand are available online. Posters from the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, Russia/Soviet Union, and France predominate, though posters from more than eighty countries are included. Background Essay Issue 29 | February 2016 1

Typologies of Terrorism

Mark Moyar

The term “terrorism” is commonly understood as political violence outside the norms of conflicts between states. Terrorism’s victims can be innocent villains, or they can be political officials or even soldiers. More controversial is the term “terrorist.” Individuals who commit acts of terrorism are often said to be “terrorists,” but that definition can be disputed on the grounds that terrorism is usually a tactic rather than a defining feature of an organization, and hence it makes no more sense to refer to a political movement that employs terrorism as “terrorists” than it does to refer to a country that employs conventional warfare as a “conventional war state.” The term “terrorist” best fits organizations for which terrorism is the principal or sole activity. Examples would include the Bader-Meinhof Brigade and the Weather Under- ground. Such organizations usually have political motives, but their exclusive reliance on terrorism is usually too limited in its impact to cause serious harm to their enemies or to attract large numbers of supporters. Non-state organizations that use terrorism as one of several military and political instruments are most often termed “insurgents.” The most famous exposition of the broad spectrum of violence employed by insurgents came from Mao Zedong, based upon his own experiences in waging insurgency in China. Mao delineated three categories of insurgent violence: terrorism, guerrilla warfare, and conventional warfare. Terrorism typically targets a smaller number of victims than guerrilla warfare, and is more likely to target civilians. The line between the two is sometimes blurred; the bombing of a police station by a paramilitary group might be said to be terrorism or guerrilla warfare or a combination thereof. According to Mao’s theory, insurgents rely heavily on terrorism when they are at their weakest. Because terrorist strikes are small and covert, they do not expose the insurgents to large-scale retaliation. When the insurgents become stronger, they can turn to guerrilla warfare, which can inflict more damage, while its concentration of lightly armed fighters increases their exposure to governmental countermeasures. Guerrilla warfare on its own rarely suffices to overthrow a government. Insurgents who seek to overthrow a government typically aspire to conventional warfare, for it is usually required to defeat the government’s conventional military forces. It is also most vulnerable to the government’s countermeasures, for conventional forces must mass, which makes them easier to 2 Issue 29 | February 2016 Strategika

detect, and they cannot melt into the population as easily as guerrillas. ISIS has made use of all three types of violence as described by Mao, its biggest victories as well as biggest defeats taking place in the realm of conventional warfare. Some insurgent organizations have relied on a small group of dedicated adherents to attain their objectives. Others have attempted to mobilize large segments of the population. Those that succeed in mobilizing the population are generally the most effective of insurgents, since they can bring more political and military strength to bear and can more easily intermingle with the civilian population. ISIS can be characterized as both terrorists and insurgents. Their record of brutal terrorist attacks has few rivals in terms of both the number of victims and the gruesome nature of the attacks. ISIS is also an insurgent group, waging wars of insurgency in both Syria and Iraq. It has mobilized significant numbers of Syrians and Iraqis, without whom their impressive territorial advances would not have been possible. How much of their success in mobilization results from fear of terrorism and how much results from religious or ideological appeal in Iraq and Syria is far from clear, given that no polling organizations operate in territory held by ISIS, and the cities from which ISIS has been driven—such as Tikrit and Ramadi—were depopulated during the liberation process. The number of foreigners who have flocked to Iraq and Syria to join ISIS, however, indicates that the messages and accomplishments of ISIS have a strong positive appeal with some Muslims. During the past year, ISIS has carried out terrorist attacks in close to twenty countries, in much of the Middle East and North Africa, and as far afield as Canada and Australia, demonstrating a global reach without a parallel in the history of terrorist organizations. Some of those strikes have been aimed at intimidating or overthrowing governments, which is typically how terrorist attacks are conceived. Others, such as the Charlie Hebdo attacks, appear intended mainly to portray the movement as a defender of Islam. Another highly unusual feature of ISIS is its ability Hoover Institution Archives Poster Collection, 2002c71_001 Background Essay Issue 29 | February 2016 3

to inspire individuals to acts of terrorism in distant countries without any direct contact with those individuals, as for instance in the recent San Bernardino shooting spree. When enemies of a government occupy large amounts of territory that the government purports to govern, the rebels often claim statehood. Those claims gain in force when the rebels are capable of governing the population themselves, a task that rebels often find a much more daunting challenge than fighting. ISIS purports to be not just a state, but a caliphate, and its claims are given some credibility by ISIS control and governance of cities like Raqqa and Mosul and other populous territory. Organizations that often employed terrorism in gaining power discontinued its use once they obtained power. But such is not always the case. Nazi Germany, the Soviet Union, and Communist China made lavish use of terrorist violence against their own citizens and millions of foreigners. The Khmer Rouge killed more than one million of Cam- bodia’s people in pursuing their vision of a Communist utopia. Iran’s revolutionaries have carried out terrorist operations on a smaller scale, using proxy forces in order to conceal their hand. The fanaticism and barbarism of ISIS give every reason to believe that terrorism would continue if ISIS were to gain control over Syria or Iraq. External support is usually a critical factor in the ability of an insurgency to with- stand attack. Most insurgencies that have succeeded have received external support, in the form of material assistance, manpower, expertise, and/or sanctuary. Most insurgencies lacking in such external support have failed. ISIS appears to be receiving extensive support from Sunni countries, who may not care for ISIS’s ideology but view them as a preferable alternative to Iran and its allies in Syria and Iraq. The extent of fanaticism within an organization and its followers is also a major factor in its vulnerability. Germany’s Nazi Party had millions of devoted adherents who main- tained fierce resistance to Allied attacks until their army had been completely destroyed and their capital burned to the ground. By contrast, Afghanistan’s Taliban contained a small core of dedicated leaders, but many of its military commanders were opportunists who were willing to abandon the Taliban in 2001 when the Northern Alliance attacked the Taliban with the help of US air power. The incidence of fanatical devotees and opportunists within the ranks of ISIS is one of the most important questions on ISIS for which solid evidence is scarce. In contrast to most insurgent organizations, ISIS is dispersed across a multiplicity of countries. ISIS affiliates have established themselves across a wide arc of territory that includes most of the countries from Algeria in the west to Pakistan in the east, as well as Nigeria and Somalia. Although they have suffered some recent military reverses in Iraq and Syria, they appear to retain a high degree of strength in those countries, and no for- eign power or coalition has as yet mustered the ground forces that would be required 4 Issue 29 | February 2016 Strategika

to evict them from their Syrian strongholds. The collapse of central governance in Libya and Yemen and the deterioration of Afghanistan’s security apparatus following American troop withdrawals have afforded opportunities for ISIS to fill governance voids. Vanquish- ing them will therefore require efforts in multiple nations, some of which are lacking in viable local partners. Destroying the leadership of an organization may suffice to destroy its ideology. The destruction of Nazi Germany put an end to its ideological appeal. Destroying the leadership of ISIS would destroy its prestige, which is a key element of its appearance, but would likely not destroy its ideology. The internet has given ISIS an unprecedented capability to sell its ideology to the world’s population, and its messages will continue to circulate even after the crafters of those messages have been killed. Ideologies can be defeated over time through containment rather than through destruction, as occurred in the case of Communism. The bankruptcy of Communism eventually became clear to the elites within Communist countries, and the ideology died a natural death. Containing ISIS could conceivably result in such an outcome. But it will require a willingness to tolerate ISIS attacks like those in Paris and San Bernardino for a prolonged period, and there is no guarantee that it will succeed. The West’s current approach to ISIS is closer to containment than to destruction, but that will change if the depredations of ISIS become painful enough.

Mark Moyar is a Senior Fellow at the Joint Special Operations University, and author. He holds a BA, summa cum laude, from Harvard and a PhD from Cambridge. His books include A Question of Command: Counterinsurgency from the Civil War to Iraq (Yale University Press, 2009); Triumph Forsaken: The Vietnam War, 1954–1965 (Cambridge University Press, 2006); and Phoenix and the Birds of Prey: Counterinsurgency and Counterterrorism in Vietnam (Naval Institute Press, 1997; University of Nebraska Press, 2007). He is currently writing a book on national security strategy during the Obama administration Featured Commentary Issue 29 | February 2016 5

Why ISIS Is Different— and Why It Matters

Peter R. Mansoor

The Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) is the by addressing just one aspect of its power. Attempts modern face of terror. Unlike al-Qaeda, the Irish to contain it have already failed due to the organiza- Republican Army, Lashkar-e-Taiba, Maoists in India, tion’s ability to spread its radical ideology over social the Shining Path, and other traditional terrorist orga- media. The group has extensive monetary assets and nizations, ISIS refuses to lurk in the shadows. Unlike an ability to tax its subjects that make targeting of Hezbollah, Hamas, the Tamil Tigers, or the Fuerzas its finances problematic. A counterterrorist strategy Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia, ISIS is not to defend against attacks at home combined with content with controlling a limited amount of territory the targeted assassination of ISIS leaders overseas confined to a single nation-state. Osama bin-Laden has proven to be insufficient to seriously degrade was willing to wait for a future day when al-Qaeda, having destabilized the Western world and defeated the dictatorships of the Middle East, would emerge to claim its rightful place as the governing body of the Islamic caliphate. Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is unwilling to postpone that destiny. He and his followers are in a hurry—to establish an Islamic caliphate, to continue its spread across the Islamic world, to battle the Cru- saders and Jews, and to bring their brand of justice and Shari’a law to the entire world. They have seized territory in Iraq and Syria larger than the size of Israel and Jordan combined, formed a government, fielded capable armed forces, and established branches in nine other countries, with sympathizers in dozens more. ISIS is a force with which to be reckoned. ISIS is the archetypal hybrid threat, combining elements of conventional armed forces, guerrilla warfare, terrorism, and criminal activity to form a potent challenge to stability in the Middle East and a threat to security worldwide. It cannot be defeated Hoover Institution Archives Poster Collection, 2002c71_0003 6 Issue 29 | February 2016 Strategika

the ability of the organization to continue its reign Islamist terrorism, its armed forces must be destroyed of terror. Airstrikes over the past eighteen months and its territory occupied. This can only be accom- have killed more than twenty thousand fighters, but plished by ground operations in Syria and Iraq. Several new recruits have more than compensated for these factors complicate any such campaign. Iranian con- losses. Attacks against ISIS territory have had some trol over Baghdad inhibits the ability of Iraqi Prime success in Tikrit, Baiji, Sinjar, and Ramadi, but the core Minister Haider al-Abadi to accept further American of the Islamic State remains intact. assistance, especially the introduction of US ground Defeating the Islamic State requires a holistic forces or combat advisors into Iraq. Kurdish forces are strategy to deal simultaneously with all of the various capable, but are unlikely to be enlisted to attack areas aspects of ISIS power. Elements of such a strategy are outside their region. The use of Shi’a popular mobiliza- in place, but by themselves they are insufficient to tion forces would alienate Sunni Arabs, without whose defeat ISIS in an acceptable time frame. Good intel- support any long-term solution to the governance of ligence and robust homeland defenses are absolutely currently held ISIS territory is impossible. Syrian rebel required to deal with ISIS-inspired terrorism. Airpower groups are divided, partly under Islamist control, and and special operations forces will continue to degrade more interested in defeating the forces loyal to Syr- ISIS command and control and logistics, including its ian strongman Bashar al-Assad than in destroying lucrative oil smuggling business. More can and must ISIS. This leaves the possibility of a US-led air-ground be done in each of these areas. Intelligence agencies campaign to destroy the Islamic State. Forces could must apply more resources to track people who have come from the United States, NATO allies, and Arab travelled to the Islamic State and then returned home. regional partners, using Turkey and Jordan as bases The air campaign needs to be expanded and overly of operation. Assembling such a coalition requires restrictive rules of engagement loosened to increase overcoming a number of obstacles beyond domestic its effectiveness. political opposition, primarily the fashioning of com- But to defeat the ISIS narrative that its victory is mon policy regarding the future of Syria, crafting inevitable and eliminate its attraction as a base for local governance arrangements that Sunni Arabs can accept, and managing the complications of Russian and Iranian involvement in the conflict. Peter Mansoor, colonel, US Skeptics counter that crushing ISIS requires Army (retired), is the General Raymond E. Mason, Jr. Chair of defeating its ideology, absent which any military Military History at Ohio State success would be fleeting. But the existence of the University. A distinguished graduate of West Point, he earned his doctorate from caliphate feeds that ideology; indeed, it is its essen- Ohio State University. He assumed his current position tial foundation. If the caliphate is overrun by Western, after a twenty-six-year career in the US Army that Arab, and Turkish military forces it will no longer seem included two combat tours, culminating in his service as executive officer to General David Petraeus in Iraq. to be riding the tide of fate. ISIS and its ideology will His latest book is Surge: My Journey with General David be tarnished beyond repair, and it will then enter the Petraeus and the Remaking of the Iraq War, a history of the surge in Iraq in 2007– 8, which was published by dustbin of history where it so rightly belongs. Yale University Press in 2013. Featured Commentary Issue 29 | February 2016 7

ISIS: The Latest Phase of the Jihad

Raymond Ibrahim

The best way to understand the Islamic State (ISIS) Regardless, AQ’s strategy of turning Western is to see it as the next phase of al-Qaeda. All Sunni opinion appears to have borne fruit in one pivotal Islamic jihadi groups—Boko Haram, ISIS, Taliban, area: canceling longtime Western support for secular al-Shabaab, al-Qaeda, even Hamas—share the same Arab dictators. In the context of the “Arab Spring,” motivations based on a literal and orthodox reading the Obama administration turned its back on Ameri- of Islamic history and doctrine: resurrecting a caliph- ca’s Egyptian ally of 30 years, Hosni Mubarak; helped ate (which existed in various forms from 632 to 1924) ISIS-affiliated jihadis overthrow Libya’s Gaddafi (even that implements and spreads the totality of sharia, or though he was complying with Washington); and Islamic law. continues supporting ISIS-affiliated “moderates”3 to Accordingly, ISIS’s notorious atrocities—behead- overthrow Syria’s Assad. Idealists in both government ing, crucifixion, sexual enslavement, and destruction of non-Sunni places of worship—are being committed by other jihadi groups (e.g., Boko Haram and al-Shabaab, both of which pledged allegiance to ISIS) and even by POLL: Why has ISIS grown some Muslim governments (e.g., Saudi Arabia) and so rapidly in comparison individual Muslims around the world. to other radical Islamic Conversely, although al-Qaeda (AQ) adheres terrorist groups? to the same sharia that ISIS implements, it has long It is the first Islamic terrorist group to gain waged a propaganda war against the West. AQ por- direct control of oil revenues. trays all terrorist attacks on the West, including It upped the level of medieval violence 9/11, as mere payback for the West’s unjust polices through sensationalized barbarity. against Muslims, including support for Israel and Arab 1 It brilliantly appealed directly to dictators. disaffected young Muslims throughout To maintain this “grievance” narrative, AQ knows the Western World. that the innately supremacist and violent aspects of It was a creation of Western indifference, sharia—for example ISIS’s destruction of churches and especially the recessional of the United subjugation of “infidel” Christian minorities—need States from the Middle East. to be curtailed or hidden from the Western world. It is a passing phenomenon, not much Otherwise AQ’s efforts of portraying jihadis as “free- different from other mostly forgotten dom fighters” resisting an oppressive West risk being Islamic terrorist outfits. undermined.2 8 Issue 29 | February 2016 Strategika

Hoover Institution Archives Poster Collection, 2002c71_0002 Featured Commentary Issue 29 | February 2016 9

and media forgot a primary reason the United States to connect the actions of any jihadi organization— had formerly supported secular Arab dictators: They whether ISIS, al-Qaeda, Boko Haram, et al.—to Islamic single-mindedly opposed the jihadis. teaching. The result has been a new and emboldened Time will tell whether the next administration phase of the jihad, a.k.a., ISIS. Born and entrenched will remain willfully ignorant of the nature of its jihadi in precisely those nations that US leadership brought enemy—which is fatal in war according to Sun Tzu’s “freedom and democracy” to—Iraq, Syria, and Libya— ancient dictum “know your enemy”—or whether real- ISIS (or al-Qaeda 2.0) is now indifferent to Western ity will trump political correctness. opinion. By widely broadcasting its savage triumphal- ism in the name of Islam, ISIS forfeits the “grievance 1 See “An Analysis of Al-Qa’ida’s Worldview: Reciprocal Treatment or Religious Obligation?” Also, The Al Qaeda Reader, card” but plays the “strength” card, thus inspiring which separates the organization’s communiqués into two millions of Muslims. According to the Pew Research groups: “Propaganda” messages to the West portraying jihadi terrorists as mere freedom fighters, and “Theology” messages to Center, in 11 countries alone, at least 63 million and as fellow Muslims, preaching the same Islam of ISIS. many as 287 million Muslims support ISIS.4 2 See “Al-Qaeda: Defender of Christians?” for a more Yet even ISIS works in stages. When criticized by elaborate explanation of this theme. 3 For the Syrian Free Army’s role: “Largest Massacre of Muslims for killing fellow Muslims and not attacking Christians in Syria Ignored.” Israel—the supreme enemy—ISIS responded by saying 4 “Pew poll: Between 63 million and 287 million ISIS supporters in just 11 countries.” it was following the pattern of the historic caliphate 5 “New Islamic Caliphate Declares Jihad on … Muslims.” founded in 632.5 Then, Caliph Abu Bakr beheaded and crucified tens of thousands of Muslims for aposta- tizing. Only after the rebel tribes were brought back into the fold of Islam were they set loose to conquer European/Christian territories during history’s early Muslim conquests (634–750). Indeed, it is believed that ISIS’s caliph Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi took this name Raymond Ibrahim, a 2013 Hoover Institution Media to signify his focus, that is, terrorizing all “hypocrites” Fellow and expert on Islamism, and “apostates” until they unify under the caliphate’s is author of CrucifiedAgain: Exposing Islam’s New War on banner. Christians and The Al Qaeda Reader. His writings have It still remains to be seen whether ISIS’s strategy— appeared in World Almanac of Islamism, Chronicle inspiring Muslims but losing Western opinion—will of Higher Education, Jane’s Islamic Affairs Analyst, and Middle East Quarterly; he has appeared on succeed. According to polls, “Islamophobia” is on MSNBC, Fox News, C-SPAN, PBS, Reuters, Al-Jazeera, the rise in the West, especially after the rise of ISIS, NPR, MSNBC, Fox News, and many other media. Formerly a reference/linguist specialist at the Library prompting several politicians to speak more candidly of Congress’ Near East section, Ibrahim is fluent about the catalysts for terrorist violence. in Arabic, provides expert testimony for Islam- The Obama administration’s weak responses related lawsuits, and testifies before Congress. He currently holds fellowships at think tanks including feed into AQ’s narrative that Islamic terrorism at Philadelphia’s Middle East Forum and L.A.’s Horowitz least in part reflects Islamic grievance; and it refuses Freedom Center.. 10 Issue 29 | February 2016 Strategika

Discussion Questions Does ISIS really differ from other terrorist groups; if so, how does its singularity complicate US efforts to defeat it?

1. What is the relationship between Sunni nations in the Middle East and the growth of ISIS?

2. How has the new relationship of the United States with Iran influenced the American effort against ISIS?

3. Can or should the United States work with the Russians to bomb ISIS assets?

4. Is ISIS-inspired terrorism inside the West a greater threat than that posed by al-Qaeda?

5. Who are ISIS? Al-Qaeda veterans? Ex-Baathists from Iraq? Former Free Syrian Army renegades? International Muslim radicals? Educational Materials Issue 29 | February 2016 11

Suggestions for Further Reading

• William McCants, The ISIS Apocalypse: The History, Strategy, and Doomsday Vision of the Islamic State (St. Martin’s, 2015). • Bard E. O’Neill, Insurgency and Terrorism: From Revolution to Apocalypse [2nd ed., rev.] (Potomac Books, 2005). • Joby Warrick, Black Flags: The Rise of ISIS (Doubleday, 2015).

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