ISSN 1610-0956 Scientific Technical Report STR 05/16 GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Assessment for Vanuatu m/s2 J. Suckale1, G. Gr¨unthal1, M. Regnier2, C. Bosse1 1GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam, Telegrafenberg, D-14473 Potsdam, email:
[email protected] 2Institut de Recherche pour le D´eveloppement, Unit´emixte de recherche - G´eoscienceAzur, 250 rue Albert Einstein, Sophia Antipolis, 06560 Valbonne Scientific Technical Report STR 05/16 Scientific Technical Report STR 05/16 GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam Scientific Technical Report STR 05/16 GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam Contents List of Figures :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: iii 1. Introduction :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: 1 2. Geological and Tectonic Setting ::::::::::::::::::::: 5 2.1 Geomorphology of the arc . 5 2.1.1 Trench . 5 2.1.2 Arc platform . 7 2.1.3 Backarc . 7 2.2 Tectonic evolution . 7 2.2.1 Submarine ridges . 9 2.2.2 Convergence rates . 9 2.2.3 Uplift of the trench and the arc platform in central Vanuatu . 10 2.2.4 Subsidence of the intra-arc basins . 11 2.2.5 Crustal shortening . 11 3. Seismicity Data :::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: 13 3.1 Global catalogues . 13 3.1.1 USGS/NEIC . 13 3.1.2 Engdahl catalogue . 15 3.2 Local catalogues . 15 3.2.1 First measurement period . 15 3.2.2 Second measurement period . 17 3.3 Magnitude conversion . 17 3.4 Completeness . 17 4. Methodology ::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::: 19 4.1 Probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) . 19 4.1.1 Identification of dependent earthquakes . 20 4.1.2 Â2-tests . 22 4.1.3 Probability of exceedance . 22 4.2 Logic tree approach . 22 Scientific Technical Report STR 05/16 GeoForschungsZentrum Potsdam ii Contents 5.