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HYPOSTAT 2017 HYPOSTAT 2017 | A REVIEW OF EUROPE’S MORTGAGE AND HOUSING MARKETS European Mortgage Federation September 2017 The entire content of this publication is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored DISCLAIMER in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any other form or by any means: electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the prior permission of the European Mortgage Federation – European Covered Bond Council. CONTACT DETAILS EDITORS Daniele Westig Luca Bertalot Economic Adviser Secretary General [email protected] [email protected] Tel: +32 2 285 40 40 Tel: +32 2 285 40 35 LIST OF AUSTRIA FRANCE PORTUGAL Wolfgang Amann Emmanuel Ducasse António Figueiredo Lopes CONTRIBUTORS Institut für Immobilien, Crédit Foncier Immobilier Caixa Economica Montepio Geral OF DATA AND Bauen und Wohnen Gmbh [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] ANALYSIS GERMANY ROMANIA Karin Wagner Thomas Hofer Ştefan Dina Oesterreichische Nationalbank Verband deutscher Pfandbriefbanken (vdp) Romanian Association of Banks [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] BELGIUM GREECE SLOVAKIA Frans Meel Calliope Akantziliotou Paolo Colonna Union Professionnelle du Crédit (Febelfin) Bank of Greece European Mortgage Federation – [email protected] [email protected] European Covered Bond Council [email protected] BULGARIA HUNGARY Maria Pavlova Gyula Nagy SLOVENIA European Mortgage Federation – FHB Mortgage Bank Andreja Cirman European Covered Bond Council [email protected] University of Ljubljana, Faculty of Economics [email protected] [email protected] Daniele Westig IRELAND European Mortgage Federation – Anthony O’Brien SPAIN European Covered Bond Council Banking & Payments Federation Ireland Leyre Lopez [email protected] [email protected] Spanish Mortgage Association – AHE [email protected] CROATIA ITALY Alen Stojanović Marco Marino SWEDEN University of Zagreb, Faculty Italian Banking Association - ABI Christian Nilsson of Economics and Business [email protected] Swedish Bankers’ Association [email protected] LATVIA [email protected] Branka Tuškan Jekaterina Petkevica UNITED KINGDOM University of Zagreb, Faculty of Latvijas Banka Mohammad Jamei Economics and Business [email protected] UK Finance [email protected] LITHUANIA [email protected] CYPRUS Jonas Grincius BRAZIL Ioannis Tirkides AB Citadele Bankas Filipe F. Pontual Bank of Cyprus [email protected] Brazilian Association of Real Estate [email protected] LUXEMBOURG Loans and Savings Companies -ABECIP CZECH REPUBLIC Daniele Westig [email protected] Lukáš Kučera European Mortgage Federation – ICELAND Česká spořitelna, a.s. European Covered Bond Council Magnus Arni Skulason [email protected] [email protected] Reykjavik Economics ehf DENMARK MALTA [email protected] Kaare Christensen James Bonello JAPAN Finance Denmark Malta Bankers’ Association Shoichiro Konishi [email protected] [email protected] Japan Housing Finance Agency – JHF ESTONIA NETHERLANDS [email protected] Olavi Miller Nico de Vries NORWAY Eesti Pank ING Bank Michael H. Cook [email protected] [email protected] Finance Norway Silver Karolin Paul de Vries [email protected] Eesti Pank Dutch Land Registry RUSSIA [email protected] [email protected] Andrey Tumanov FINLAND POLAND Agency for Housing Mortgage Lending Elina Salminen Agnieszka Nierodka [email protected] Finance Finland Polish Mortgage Credit Foundation TURKEY [email protected] [email protected] Yener Coşkun Capital Markets Board of Turkey, MRICS [email protected] CONTRIBUTORS TO Ludovic Thebault Anthony O’Brien Mohammad Jamei European DataWarehouse Banking & Payments Federation Ireland UK Finance HYPOSTAT ARTICLES [email protected] [email protected] [email protected] Note: The views and positions expressed in this publication are of the authors alone, and should not be interpreted as necessarily being those of the institutions to which they are affiliated. CONTENTS FOREWORD 4 STATISTICAL TABLES 99 A — THE MORTGAGE MARKET KEY FACTS 5 1. Total Outstanding Residential Loans 99 2. Change in Outstanding Residential Loans 100 HOUSING AND MORTGAGE 3. Gross Residential Loans 101 MARKETS IN 2016 6 4. Representative Interest Rates on New Residential Loans 102 THE “V” IN LTV AND 5. Average amount of a Mortgage granted WHY IT MATTERS 23 103 6. Total Outstanding Non-Residential Mortgage Loans 104 FIRST TIME BUYERS 7. Total Outstanding Residential Loans to GDP Ratio 105 IN IRELAND AND IN THE UK 32 8. Total Outstanding Residential Loans to Disposable Income of Households Ratio 106 EU 28 COUNTRY REPORTS 39 9. Total Outstanding Residential Loans per Capita 107 Austria 39 B — THE HOUSING MARKET Belgium 41 10. Owner Occupation Rate 108 Bulgaria 44 11. Building Permits 109 Croatia 46 12. Housing Starts 110 Cyprus 48 13. Housing Completions 111 Czech Republic 50 14. Real Gross Fixed Investment in Housing 112 Denmark 52 15. Total Dwelling Stock 113 Estonia 54 16. Number of Transactions 114 Finland 56 17. Nominal House Prices Indices 115 France 58 18. Nominal House Price Index – cities 116 Germany 60 19. Change in Nominal House Prices 119 Greece 62 20. Nominal House Price to Disposable Income Hungary 64 of Households Ratio 120 Ireland 66 C — FUNDING OF THE MORTGAGE Italy 69 MARKET Latvia 71 21. Total Covered Bonds Outstanding Lithuania 121 73 22. Total Covered Bonds Issuances Luxembourg 122 75 23. Total Covered Bonds Outstanding Malta 123 77 24. Total Residential Mortgage-Backed Securities Netherlands 79 (RMBS) Outstanding 124 Poland 81 25. Total RMBS Issuances 124 Portugal 83 Romania 85 D — MACROECONOMIC INDICATORS Slovakia 87 26. GDP at Current Market Prices 125 Slovenia 89 27. Gross Disposable Income of Household 126 Spain 91 28. Population 127 Sweden 94 29. Bilateral Nominal Exchange Rate with the Euro 128 United Kingdom 96 ANNEX: EXPLANATORY NOTE ON DATA 129 EMF HYPOSTAT 2017 3 FOREWORD Dear Reader, In recent years, housing and mortgage markets have been increasingly present in the public debate in a wide range of contexts, from social and demographic challenges to macroprudential tools put in place in order to guarantee financial stability. Transparent and reliable information on the main trends, developments and realities in Europe are essential to learn from the past, to understand the current challenges and to be able to draw some conclusions for the future of European housing and mortgage markets according to the evolving socio-economic landscape. The quantitative analysis presented in this publication aims to capture the trends and attitudes of European lenders and borrowers and highlight some of the driving forces of housing and mortgage markets. Mortgage credit remains one of the major contributors to real economic growth. Furthermore, given its fundamental role in facilitating access to homeownership, it plays a vital role in the socio-economic life of citizens of the old continent. In addition, if, on the one hand, the purchase of a house represents the most significant acquisition an individual will ever make, on the other hand mortgage and housing markets are deeply influenced by the individual’s choice about where, when and what types of dwellings he/she will buy, which as a consequence has an impact on the decisions relating to the real estate market in the medium to long term. Against this background, we are delighted to present you the 2017 edition of Hypostat, the EMF-ECBC’s statistical publication on European housing and mortgage markets. Since the publication of the first edition in 1998, Hypostat has established itself as an industry benchmark for quantitative and qualitative analysis in this area. It is a result of intense cooperation between financial market analysts, national banking associations and the most eminent mortgage and housing market experts in Europe. Hypostat brings together over 30 contributors, commenting on historical annual series for 30 indicators, covering, where data is available, the 28 Member States of the European Union and beyond. The country chapters of our publication offer the most comprehensive and accurate source of data available on the respective markets and outline developments observed over the past year. Besides a general analysis of European mortgage and housing markets, Hypostat includes external articles focusing on significant topics which have an impact on these markets. In the ongoing debate of improving financial stability in Europe, with outstanding residential mortgage accounting for 47% of EU GDP, the financing of residential real estate is undeniably at the centre of the discussion. One of the key indicators for assessing the riskiness of a mortgage loan is the Loan-to-Value (LTV) ratio. As straightforward as it seems, this ratio can be calculated and interpreted in several different ways. In this edition, we contribute to this discussion by presenting an article prepared by European DataWarehouse (EDW) on the various ways the LTV ratio can be assessed in certain countries of the EU together with its policy implications. The article also takes advantage of the granular database of EDW to provide empirical findings on the relationship between LTV and the probability of default. Considering that in the past years house prices have increased substantially and that wages, especially in the
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