Korea Convenience Store Sector
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Korea Consumer Discretionary / Consumer Staples 13 April 2016 Korea Convenience Store Sector Initiation: the most convenient way to play Korea retail Convenience stores meet the demand from the over-65s/single-or- dual households for nearby stores that sell small portions Korea’s demographic changes and economic slowdown offer limited room for other retail segments to expand Iris Park Initiating on BGF Retail with an Outperform (2) and GS Retail with a (82) 2787 9165 Hold (3); we forecast double-digit EPS growth for both over 2016-18 [email protected] Investment case: After our first-hand look at the Japanese convenience New Prev. store (CVS) market, we believe Korea’s CVS market is in the early growth BGF Retail (027410 KS) phase, about 10-15 years behind Japan. We see the Korean retail market Rating Outperform developing in the same way as Japan’s, where the CVS format has Target 194,000 gradually taken over as the prominent retail form. From 2005-15, Japan’s Upside 8.7% retail revenue saw a CAGR of 0.4%, yet the CAGR for its CVS segment GS Retail (007070 KS) was 4.1%. In our view, this growth was driven by the CVS segment’s Rating Hold stronger fresh-food and private-brand businesses capitalising on the Target 49,500 Upside 4.3% growing number of people over 65 and small-sized households. We see a similar trend unfolding in Korea, with the CVS operators starting to Source: Daiwa forecasts outperform other retailers on the back of their better product mixes. Korea’s CVS industry is still feeling the positive top-line impact of an 80% rise in the price of tobacco in early-2015, with franchisees keen to take on CVS stores to benefit in 2016 (both mom-and-pop revamps [c.35,000] and newly developed locations). As the effect wears off, we expect CVS revenue growth to slow to 7-8% YoY for 2017 and 6% for 2018 (from c.10% for 2016, c.30% for 2015 and 3-4% for 2013-14), with growth being supported by increasing demand for private-label and fresh-food products attracting new customers (as has been the trend in Japan). Catalysts: We believe the recent implementation in Korea of a tax-refund system for tourists who spend KRW30,000-200,000 (USD25-165) will be a short-term catalyst. When the same system was implemented in Japan, Seven Eleven Japan’s SSS spiked by up to 10% YoY during the first year. We expect the Korean CVS industry to see a similar acceleration in SSSG once stores are equipped with the system. Valuation: Within the CVS subsector, we see the top players BGF Retail (027410 KS, KRW178,500, Outperform [2]) and GS Retail (007070 KS, KRW47,450, Hold [3]) benefiting the most from the trends outlined above and initiate coverage of the sector with a Positive rating. We have a 12-month TP for BGF Retail of KRW194,000 and value it at a target PER of 25.8x, applying the average global CVS peer PER. For GS Retail, we have a 12-month TP of KRW49,500, for which we apply the global peer 2016E PER to each business segment: 25.8x to the CVS business, 17.9x to the supermarket business and 22.3x to the hotel operation, but see its uncompetitive supermarket business dragging down overall earnings over the next 2 years. Risks: We believe an expanding fresh-food business could be a drawback for companies, as it could trigger extra costs for the companies if the franchisees fail to meet the right order amount. Also, unfavourable weather conditions could drag down the sales of these off-line retailers. See important disclosures, including any required research certifications, beginning on page 40 Korea Convenience Store Sector: 13 April 2016 How do we justify our view? Growth outlook Valuation Earnings revisions Growth outlook Revenue trend for BGF Retail and GS Retail We forecast the top-2 CVS operators, GS Retail and BGF (KRW bn) 9,000 8,377 Retail, to record an aggregate revenue CAGR of 9.4% from 7,790 2016-18, and expect each company to add 700-900 new 8,000 7,122 7,000 6,273 6,257 stores this year alone. In addition, with better product 5,835 6,000 4,962 5,131 offerings, we forecast sales per CVS store to increase by 5,000 4,334 6.2% YoY for BGF Retail and 5.9% YoY for GS Retail in 4,000 3,368 2016, with their improved product line-ups contributing to 3,000 better margins for both companies. Excluding one-off 2,000 factors, we forecast 2016E EPS growth of 20.4% YoY for 1,000 BGF Retail and 18.2% YoY for GS Retail, higher than the 0 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E global peer average of 7.6% (Bloomberg forecast, BGF Retail GS Retail excluding Family Mart Japan, which saw unusual EPS Source: Company, Daiwa forecasts growth for 2016 due to extraordinary losses from asset disposal and impairment write-downs). Peer valuation Valuation PER (x) PBR (x) EPS growth (%) ROE (%) We initiate coverage of BGF Retail with an Outperform (2) Company rating and 12-month TP of KRW194,000. We apply the FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 BGF Retail* 23.7 20.2 5.3 4.3 20.4 17.4 22.3 21.5 global peer average PER to BGF Retail’s 2016E EPS to GS Retail* 20.6 18.3 1.7 1.5 18.2 12.0 9.9 10.8 derive our TP, as we see the company only starting to post Seven & I Holdings 21.1 18.7 1.7 1.6 24.1 12.6 8.7 9.2 strong EPS growth from 2017 (the high base from 2015 Lawson 22.1 20.0 3.1 2.9 26.3 10.7 15.3 15.5 FamilyMart-JP 24.3 21.5 1.9 1.8 13.4 13.0 6.3 5.8 distorted the 2016 growth number). Meanwhile, we apply a FamilyMart-TW 31.5 25.2 9.1 8.3 18.4 24.8 28.5 32.4 Hold (3) rating to GS Retail and 12-month TP of President Chain Store 26.5 24.2 8.3 7.6 11.1 9.3 31.9 32.3 KRW49,500 based on SOTP methodology given its Global average 25.8 22.4 5.5 5.0 18.0 14.6 20.2 21.3 different retail formats (CVS, supermarkets, hotels). Our TP Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts Note: * are Daiwa forecasts/ 2016E EPS growth for BGF Retail and GS Retail excludes 2015’s implies a 2016E PER of 21.4x, which is below the peer one-off gain. Our global peer group multiple is the average of the Japan- and Taiwan-listed average, as we expect its supermarket operation to peer group averages. continue to drag down its overall business. Earnings revisions Korea CVS sector: Bloomberg consensus 2016E EPS revisions The Bloomberg-consensus earnings forecasts for BGF (KRW) Retail have been on the rise since last year, due we 8,000 7,000 believe to market expectations of better margins after the 6,000 company improved its product offerings. As for GS Retail, 5,000 4Q15 earnings were a trigger for EPS downward revisions, 4,000 with the company recognising more losses in the 3,000 supermarket division than expected. 2,000 1,000 Our 2016 EPS forecast for BGF Retail is 9% higher than 0 (1,000) consensus as we are more bullish on the company’s fresh Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 food business. For GS Retail, our 2016E EPS is 3% lower BGF Retail GS Retail than consensus as we are more conservative on the Source: Bloomberg outlook for the company’s supermarket business. 2 Korea Convenience Store Sector: 13 April 2016 Sector stocks: key indicators EPS (local curr.) Share Rating Target price (local curr.) FY1 FY2 Company Name Stock code Price New Prev. New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg New Prev. % chg BGF Retail 027410 KS 178,500 Outperform 194,000 7,517 8,827 GS Retail 007070 KS 47,450 Hold 49,500 2,308 2,586 Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts CVS sector: peer valuations PER (x) PBR (x) EPS Growth(%) ROE (%) Company FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 BGF Retail* 23.7 20.2 5.3 4.3 20.4 17.4 22.3 21.5 GS Retail* 20.6 18.3 1.7 1.5 18.2 12.0 9.9 10.8 Seven & I Holdings 21.1 18.7 1.7 1.6 24.1 12.6 8.7 9.2 Lawson 22.1 20.0 3.1 2.9 26.3 10.7 15.3 15.5 FamilyMart-JP 24.3 21.5 1.9 1.8 13.4 13.0 6.3 5.8 FamilyMart-TW 31.5 25.2 9.1 8.3 18.4 24.8 28.5 32.4 President Chain Store 26.5 24.2 8.3 7.6 11.1 9.3 31.9 32.3 Global average 25.8 22.4 5.5 5.0 18.0 14.6 20.2 21.3 Source: Bloomberg, Daiwa forecasts (*) 2016E EPS growth for BGF Retail and GS Retail excludes 2015’s one-off gain. Our global peer group multiple is the average of the Japan- and Taiwan-listed peer group averages Korea CVS sector: key assumptions Revenue (KRWbn) 2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E BGF Retail 3,368.0 4,334.2 5,130.5 5,834.9 6,257.3 CVS 3,303.1 4,257.6 5,043.2 5,728.5 6,148.0 YoY 7.4% 28.9% 18.5% 13.6% 7.3% Golf course 8 16 16.8 YoY 100.0% 5.0% Others 64.9 76.7 79.3 90.4 92.5 YoY 20.2% 18.2% 3.4% 2.5% 2.2% GS Retail 4,962.4 6,273.2 7,121.6 7,790.4 8,377.5 CVS 3,502.0 4,652.5 5,298.1 5,897.3 6,422.9 YoY 8.8% 32.9% 13.9% 11.3% 8.9% Supermarket 1,331.3 1,389.3 1,450.0 1,494.7 1,533.9 YoY -2.9% 4.4% 4.4% 3.1% 2.6% Hotel 66.4 212.0 229.0 242.7 YoY 219.3% 8.0% 6.0% Others 129.1 165.0 161.5 169.5 178.0 YoY 8.9% 27.9% -2.2% 5.0% 5.0% Source: Companies, Daiwa forecasts 3 Korea Convenience Store Sector: 13 April 2016 Table of contents CVS likely to outperform other retail formats .......................................................