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Public Opinion Survey Residents of Moldova June 7–27, 2014

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Public Opinion Survey Residents of Moldova June 7–27, 2014 Public Opinion Survey Residents of Moldova June 7–27, 2014 International Republican Institute Detailed Methodology • The survey was conducted by the public opinion and market research company Baltic Surveys/The Gallup Organization on behalf of the International Republican Institute. The field work was carried out by Magenta Consulting. • Data was collected throughout Moldova June 7–27, 2014, through face-to-face interviews at respondents’ home. • The sample consisted of 1,200 permanent residents of Moldova older than the age of 18 and eligible to vote. It is representative of the general population by age, gender, education, region and size of the settlement. • All regions of Moldova were surveyed (excluding Transnistria). Multistage probability sampling method was used with the random route and next birthday respondent’s selection procedures: • Stage one: districts were grouped into 11 groups. • Stage two: selection of the settlements – cities and villages. Settlements were selected at random. The number of selected settlements in each region was proportional to the share of population living in a particular type of the settlement in each region. • Stage three: primary sampling units were described. • The margin of error does not exceed plus or minus 2.8 percent. • Response rate was 54 percent. • Charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding. • The survey was funded by the National Endowment for Democracy. 2 Growing Support for Democracy International Republican Institute How satisfied are you with the way democracy is developing in Moldova? Very satisfied Somewhat satisfied Somewhat dissatisfied Very dissatisfied Don't know/No answer Jun-14 4% 41% 30% 16% 9% Jan-12 1% 18% 43% 27% 11% Dec-11 3% 23% 36% 29% 9% Aug-11 5% 25% 39% 22% 9% Feb-11 3% 29% 36% 21% 10% Sep-10 5% 23% 41% 24% 8% May-10 2% 27% 40% 21% 10% Feb-10 4% 22% 37% 27% 10% Nov-09 3% 27% 37% 20% 14% Jun-09 1% 16% 41% 25% 17% Nov-08 2% 21% 42% 20% 15% Apr-08 2% 17% 41% 24% 16% Mar-07 5% 21% 41% 18% 15% Apr-06 1% 25% 43% 14% 17% Nov-04 2% 26% 44% 14% 14% Mar-04 2% 24% 44% 17% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 4 Generally speaking, do you think that things in Moldova are going in the right direction or wrong direction? Right direction Wrong direction Don't know/No answer 80% 73% 74% 70% 66% 61% 58% 60% 57% 58% 54% 55% 54% 51% 53% 51% 50% 47% 45% 42% 40% 37% 33% 38% 38% 34% 33% 40% 42% 41% 30% 32% 31% 30% 27% 19% 22% 20% 21% 14% 15% 14% 17% 13% 14% 12% 14% 8% 9% 10% 9% 10% 15% 11% 5% 5% 0% Mar-04 Nov-04 Apr-06 Mar-07 Apr-08 Nov-08 Jun-09 Nov-09 Feb-10 May-10 Sep-10 Feb-11 Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-14 5 Are you going to vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections? Definitely yes Probably yes Probably no Definitely no Don't know/No answer Jun-14 77% 15% 3% 4% 1% Jan-12 50% 31% 6% 3% 10% Dec-11 66% 21% 4% 3% 6% Aug-11 47% 33% 6% 4% 10% Sep-10 47% 34% 5% 2% 12% May-10 53% 32% 3%2% 10% Feb-10 55% 30% 3%3% 9% Nov-09 59% 28% 2%3% 9% Nov-08 58% 31% 4%2% 5% 61% Apr-08 23% 4% 3% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 6 Moldovans Blame Russia, Yanukovych for Ukraine Crisis International Republican Institute Who do you believe is responsible for the current crisis in Ukraine? Previous Ukrainian government New Ukrainian government Russia European Union Certain groups of Ukrainian people Other Don't know/No answer 26% 9% 28% 8% 10% 2% 16% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 8 How do you evaluate the following recent events in Ukraine? Positively Indifferently Negatively Don't know/No answer Election of P.Poroshenko as the 39% 26% 14% 21% President of Ukraine Removal of President V.Yanukovych 38% 17% 20% 25% Crimea joining Russia 29% 12% 46% 13% Appointment of A.Yatseniuk as Prime 28% 24% 16% 32% Minister of Ukraine Referendum on self-rule held in Eastern Ukraine 22% 17% 29% 32% on May 11, 2014 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 9 What do you think the future of Transnistria should be? Ordinary region of Moldova, without any autonomy Autonomy within the Republic of Moldova A part of the Russian Federation A part of Ukraine Independent Don't know/No answer Jun-14 67% 16% 7% 1% 6% 3% Jan-12 66% 16% 7% 7% 4% Dec-11 66% 17% 6% 1% 5% 4% Aug-11 61% 20% 6% 1% 8% 4% Feb-11 60% 18% 5% 8% 9% Sep-10 65% 16% 3%1% 7% 8% May-10 72% 12% 2% 8% 6% Feb-10 68% 17% 4%1% 5% 5% Nov-09 69% 18% 2% 1% 5% 6% Nov-08 68% 19% 1% 4% 7% Apr-08 65% 21% 2% 1% 4% 7% Mar-07 61% 21% 3% 4% 11% Apr-06 80% 12% 1% 2%4% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 10 Moldovans are Concerned about the Economy & Corruption International Republican Institute What are the most important problems that Moldova is facing at the moment? (Spontaneous, up to three mentions, problems mentioned by at least two percent) Unemployment 43% Low income 37% Corruption 25% Bad government 9% Emigration 9% High prices/Inflation 8% Roads 8% Poverty 7% Economic situation 7% Political crisis 4% Healthcare system 3% European integration 3% Instability/Chaos in the country 3% Crime 3% Education problems 3% Agriculture 2% Social assistance 2% Don't know/No answer 5% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 12 What are the most important problems facing you and your household? (Spontaneous, up to three mentions, problems mentioned by at least two percent) Financial problems/Low income 48% Unemployment 12% Health problems 8% High prices/Inflation 4% Poor housing utilities 4% Emigration 3% Expensive housing/Utilities 3% Water supply 3% Poverty 3% Bad social assistance 2% Don't know/No answer 26% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 13 What are the most important problems your town/village is facing at the moment? (Spontaneous, up to three mentions, problems mentioned by at least two percent) Roads 40% Unemployment 22% Water supply 10% Sanitation 9% Low income 6% Corruption 5% Inefficient work of civil servants 5% Transportation 5% Ecology 5% Cleanliness 5% Insufficient street lighting 4% High prices/Inflation 4% Emigration 4% Education 4% Expensive housing/Utilities 3% Gas supply 3% Lack of leisure activities 3% School closing 2% Don't know/No answer 16% 14 Is corruption a big problem in Moldova today? It is a very big issue It is a big issue It is not a big issue It is not an issue at all Don't know/No answer Jun-14 81% 14% 1%1%3% Jan-12 73% 21% 2% 3% 0% Dec-11 80% 15% 2%1%2% Aug-11 61% 29% 3%1%6% Feb-11 59% 33% 3%1%4% Sep-10 57% 31% 4% 1% 7% May-10 53% 37% 4% 1% 5% Feb-10 58% 33% 4% 2%3% Nov-09 61% 31% 3% 5% 0% Nov-08 62% 27% 4% 1% 6% Apr-08 60% 25% 5% 10% 0% Mar-07 64% 26% 2% 8% 0% Mar-06 66% 25% 3% 5% 0% 0% Nov-04 72% 24% 2%2% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 15 Over the last 12 months, how has the economic situation in Moldova changed? Improved a lot Improved somewhat Stayed the same Worsened somewhat Worsened a lot Don't know/No answer Jun-14 4% 20% 33% 23% 14% 6% Jan-12 2% 13% 31% 28% 22% 4% Dec-11 2% 15% 20% 31% 29% 3% Aug-11 5% 23% 34% 17% 18% 3% Feb-11 3% 25% 27% 22% 18% 5% Sep-10 5% 18% 28% 26% 17% 6% May-10 2% 14% 30% 30% 19% 5% Feb-10 2% 11% 24% 38% 21% 4% Nov-09 2% 8% 34% 39% 10% 7% Jun-09 1% 9% 22% 42% 20% 5% Nov-08 2% 20% 30% 28% 15% 5% Apr-08 2% 13% 30% 29% 20% 6% Mar-07 4% 24% 32% 27% 10% 4% Apr-06 3% 24% 36% 27% 5% 5% Nov-04 5% 26% 37% 22% 6% 4% Mar-04 3% 23% 37% 25% 9% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 16 In your opinion, how will the economic situation of Moldova change in 2014? Improve a lot Improve somewhat Stay the same Worsen somewhat Worsen a lot Don't know/No answer Jun-14 6% 24% 29% 17% 7% 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 17 Which of these statements is closest to your own point of view? Our society needs serious reforms (structural and systemic change) Our society needs gradual reforms which preserve the existing system Our society has to be protected from the forces who want to change the current order Don't know/No answer Jun-14 57% 24% 8% 11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 18 Moldovans on Government Performance International Republican Institute Moldovan Parliamentary Parties Ruling Pro-European Coalition (holds 53 of 101 seats) • Liberal Democratic Party – 31 seats • Democratic Party – 15 seats • Liberal Reformist Party – 7 seats Independent Parties • Liberal Party – 5 seats, split from the rulling coalition in February 2013, supports European Union accession Current Parliamentary Opposition (holds 43 of 101 seats) • Communist Party – 34 seats • Party of Socialists – 4 seats • Smaller Parties/Independents – 5 seats 20 What is your opinion about the job the Pro-European Coalition is doing? Very good job Rather good job Rather bad job Very bad job Don't know/No answer 8% 38% 30% 15% 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 21 Do you approve or disapprove of the way the government is doing its job? Strongly approve Somewhat approve Somewhat disapprove Strongly disapprove Don't know/No answer 4% 38% 31% 21% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 22 Overall, how much do you feel you can trust the government to do what’s right – a great deal, somewhat, not so much or not at all? A great deal Somewhat Not so much Not at all Don't know/No answer 4% 34% 33% 22% 7% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 23 Which politicians or public persons do you trust the most? (Spontaneous) Iurie Leanca 22% Vladimir Voronin 21% Vlad Filat 17% Marian Lupu 14% Dorin Chirtoaca 9% Mihai Ghimpu 7% Igor Dodon 7% Renat Usatii 6% Igor Corman 3% Irina Vlah 2% Sergiu Mocanu 2% Mark Tkaciuk 1% Michail Formuzal 1% Vladimir Plahotniuc 1% Other 13% None 25% Don't know/No answer 5% 24 2014 Parliamentary Elections International Republican Institute How much interest do you
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