Competitiveness of the EU Automotive Industry in Electric Vehicles Final
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Competitiveness of the EU Automotive Industry in Electric Vehicles Final Report th December19 of 2012 Framework Contract ENTR/2009/030 (Lot 3) © CAMA University of Duisburg-Essen Chair of General Business Administration & International Automotive Management Prof. Dr. Heike Proff; Dominik Kilian, M.Sc. Funded by the Disclaimer This document has been prepared for the European Commission however it reflects the views only of the authors, and the Commission cannot be held responsible for any use which may be made of the information contained therein. Publication Data Project Coordination: University of Duisburg-Essen, Chair of General Business Administration & International Automotive Management Prof. Dr. Heike Proff, Dominik Kilian, M.Sc. Bismarckstr. 90 47057 Duisburg Tel.: +49 (0) 203 379-1055 Fax: +49 (0) 203 379 1599 E-Mail: [email protected] [email protected] Homepage: www.uni-due.de/iam Project Team: Faculty of Engineering: Chair of General Business Administration & International Automotive Management Prof. Dr. Heike Proff Dominik Kilian, M.Sc. Stefan Schwarz, LL.M. (oec.) Thomas Martin Fojcik, Dipl.-Betriebswirt (Univ.), M.A. Karl Christoph Sommer, Dipl.-Wirt.-Ing. Institute of Power Transmission and Storage Prof. Dr.-Ing. Holger Hirsch Sebastian Jeschke, M.Sc. Mercator School of Management, Faculty of Business Administration: Chair of East Asian Economic Studies- China Prof. Dr. Markus Taube Peter in der Heiden, Dipl. Reg.-Wiss. Chair of East Asian Economic Studies - Japan and Korea Prof. Dr. Werner Pascha Sven Horak, M.Sc. Table of Contents Table of Contents Executive Summary ....................................................................................................................... IX Tables, Figures and Boxes .......................................................................................................... XIII Tables and Figures in the Appendix ............................................................................................XVI Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................ XVIII 1 Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1 1.1 Background .............................................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Aims and Scope ....................................................................................................................... 2 1.3 Methodology ............................................................................................................................. 2 2 Market for Electric Vehicles ..................................................................................................... 4 2.1 Types of Electric Vehicles ........................................................................................................ 4 2.1.1.1 Current Electric Vehicles ........................................................................................... 5 2.1.2 Future Generations of Electric Vehicles ......................................................................... 9 2.2 Current Sales and Market Shares of Electric Vehicles .......................................................... 11 2.3 Market for New Electric Vehicles ........................................................................................... 14 2.3.1 Market Drivers and Market Barriers ............................................................................. 14 2.3.1.1 Total Market Demand ............................................................................................. 15 2.3.1.2 Utility and Costs of Electric Vehicles ...................................................................... 17 2.3.1.2.1 Factors influencing the Utility and Costs of Electrics Vehicles ......................... 17 2.3.1.2.2 Analysis of the Propulsion Battery Price used in Electric Vehicles .................. 18 2.3.1.2.3 Utility-Cost Relation .......................................................................................... 22 2.3.2 Market Forecast ............................................................................................................ 29 2.3.2.1 The World Market ................................................................................................... 29 2.3.2.2 The European Market ............................................................................................. 32 2.3.2.3 The U.S. Market ...................................................................................................... 37 2.3.2.4 Main Asian Markets ................................................................................................ 38 2.3.3 Interim Conclusion ........................................................................................................ 40 2.4 Market for Microcars .............................................................................................................. 44 2.5 Second Hand Electric Vehicle Market .................................................................................... 48 2.6 Trade Patterns in electric vehicles EU-Asia ........................................................................... 50 2.6.1 Japan ............................................................................................................................ 50 2.6.1.1 Description of Current Trade Patterns between Japan and the EU in the field of Electric Vehicles ...................................................................................................... 50 2.6.1.2 Japanese Market Barriers to EU Exports ............................................................... 51 2.6.1.3 Future Volume of Japanese Exports to EU – Conventional and Electric ............... 54 2.6.2 Korea ............................................................................................................................ 56 2.6.2.1 Description of Current Trade Patterns between Korea and the EU in the field of Electric Vehicles ...................................................................................................... 56 2.6.2.2 Korean Market Barriers to EU Exports ................................................................... 57 2.6.2.3 Future Volume of Korean Exports to EU – Conventional and Electric ................... 58 V Table of Contents 2.6.3 China ............................................................................................................................ 61 2.6.3.1 Description of Current Trade Patterns between the EU and China in the field of Electric Vehicles ...................................................................................................... 61 2.6.3.2 Chinese Market Barriers to EU Exports .................................................................. 63 2.6.3.3 Future Volume of Trade and Foreign Direct Investments with China ..................... 64 2.7 Market Situation for Electric Vehicles - Conclusion ............................................................... 64 3 Situation of the Electric Vehicle Industry in Europe ............................................................ 66 3.1 Overview: The Automotive Value Chain and the Impact of Electrification ............................. 66 3.2 Current Competitive Position of Electric Vehicle Manufacturing in Europe ........................... 69 3.2.1 Competitive Position of Automotive OEMs and Suppliers in Electric Vehicles ............ 69 3.2.1.1 Battery Production .................................................................................................. 69 3.2.1.1.1 European Battery Production ........................................................................... 71 3.2.1.1.2 U.S. Battery Production .................................................................................... 72 3.2.1.1.3 Asian Battery Production .................................................................................. 73 3.2.1.1.4 Global Battery Production in Comparison ........................................................ 76 3.2.1.2 Production of Electric Engines ................................................................................ 78 3.2.1.2.1 European Electric Engine Production ............................................................... 78 3.2.1.2.2 U.S. and Asian Electric Engine Production in Comparison .............................. 79 3.2.1.3 Production of Power Electronic Components ......................................................... 80 3.2.1.3.1 European Power Electronic Production ............................................................ 80 3.2.1.3.2 U.S. and Asian Power Electronic Production in Comparison ........................... 81 3.2.1.4 Final Assembly ........................................................................................................ 81 3.2.2 Patent Applications in EV-Technology ......................................................................... 83 3.2.2.1 Patents in EV Technology by Region (2001 to 2011) ............................................. 84 3.2.2.2 Patents in EV Technology by Group (2001 to 2011) .............................................. 86 3.2.2.3 Patents in EV Technology by OEM (2001 to 2011) ................................................ 88 3.2.2.4 Relation Patents in EV Technology to all Patents (2001 to 2011) .......................... 89 3.2.3 Joint Ventures and Alliances