Climate Change and Brazilian Coastal Zone

Oceans and Coastal Zones

Climate Change and Brazilian CarlosCoastal A. E. Zone Garcia Universidade Federal do Rio Grande (FURG) Copertino,Universidade M.S.; Federal Turra, de A., Santa Ciotti ,Catarina A.M.,Gherardi(UFSC), D.; Denadai, M.R.; Moller, O.O.; Raggi, P.;Horta, P.A. Kikushi, P.K.; Klein, A. F.; Siegle, E.; Souza, P.H.G.O.; Garcia, C.A.; Lana, P.C. Tema integrador 10 Zonas Costeiras e Oceanos

Margareth S. Copertino, Carlos A. Garcia1,9 , Campos, E., Alexander Turra2, Áurea Maria Ciotti3, Douglas Gherardi4, Márcia R. Denadai2, Osmar Möller1, Patrizia Raggi5, Paulo Antunes Horta6, Ruy P. K. Kikuchi7, Renato Ghisolfi8, Antonio F. Klein9, Eduardo Siegle2, Paulo H. G. O. Sousa 2, , Paulo C. Lana10 Outline

• Effects of climate changes on Oceans & Coastal Zone • Oceans Sub-network – Actions & products • Coastal Zone Sub-network – Actions & products – Experimental Studies – Observational systems and monitoring network • Conclusions and recommendations Effects of climate changes on Oceans & Coastal Zone Earth Energy Imbalance

Schuckmann et al., 2016 Energy accumulation on Earth climate system

Energy accumulation by different parts of the Earth’s climate system relative to 1971 for the period 1971- 2010

The ocean dominates the energy uptake with most of the warming absorbed by the upper ocean above 700m (light blue) and the rest in the deep ocean below (dark blue).

Dashed lines 90% confidence intervals for all variables combined Rhein et al, 2013 (1 ZJ = 1021 J) NOAA, 2016 ∂F ~= 0,556 ∂C NOAA, 2016 NOAA, 2016 NOAA, 2016 Impacts of Climate Changes on Coastal System

Nicholls et al., 2007 Impacts of climate change on coastal ecosystem

Poloczanska et. al, 2007 INCT - MC Oceanos

Dr. Edmo J. D. Campos – USP (coordenador) Motivation South Atlantic Convergence Zone is responsible for extreme rainfall events in the Brazilian Southeast region Hurricane Catarina in 2004 Motivação

Furacão Catarina 2004

Araranguá Objective Construction and anchoring Atlas-B buoy in the Atlantic Southwestern for monitoring meteorological and oceanographic parameters ATLAS-B Construction and Mooring of a Brazilian Buoy

PIRATA SWE buoys

The Atlas-B is conducted in close coordination with the Brazilian component of PIRATA. The Atlas-B is being reconditioned to be ATLAS-B deployed at the Vema Channel Atlas-B and SAMOC Initiatives (IO-USP)

Mova r Atlas- B

SAMOC Basin-wide Array (SAMBA)

The Brazilian Atlas-B and SAMOC include observation on the SAMBA and Atlas-B arrays, and numerical experiments with a global, 1/12-degree implementation of HYCOM, forced with reanalysis products. The Atlas-B started in the context of the INCT-MC and is being supported by other grants provided by FAPESP and CNPq The Atlas-B in the Vema Channel

Due the dry docking of the USP’s oceanographic vessel, NOC Alpha Crucis, and the impossibility of using any other ship in Brazil, the Atlas-B is out of the water since 2013.

With the return of the “Alpha Crucis”, plan is being made to redeploy the the buoy at the Vema Channel, with deep sensors to include the monitoring of the AABW. INCT - MC Zonas Costeiras

Dr. Carlos A. E. Garcia (FURG) (2008 - 2013) Dra. Margareth Copertino (FURG) (2014 – atual ) Population Density

Coastline length ~ 8.500 km

High populated areas, with 16 metropolitan regions with 77% of coastal population.

High biodiversity in natural ecosystems along the Exclusive Economic Zone coastal zone Coastal Zone Sub-network Strategic plan • Multiple institutional arrangements & multidisciplinary studies; • All funds from INCT and REDE CLIMA directed to structuration of the CZ sub-network & workshops. • Review of impacts of climate change on Brazilian coastal zone; • Improved science based on data collection, analysis and modelling; • Implement observing systems with appropriated space and time scales Coastal Zone Sub-network

- created in 2008 - ~ 80 researchers from all Brazilian coastal states Research Themes

Sea Level Coastal Evolution, Erosion and Flood Coastal and Estuarine Hydrodynamics Large Marine Ecosystems Marine Phytoplankton Macroalgae and Marine Plants Coral Reefs Coastlines and Beaches Mangroves Ichthyofauna Coastal Lagoons and Wetlands Fisheries Socioeconomics Representation by Media Education and Scientific Dissemination Coastal Zone Sub-network – actions

Research Human Resources Training Knowledge transfer

16 peer-reviewed articles

Pan-American Journal of Aquatic Sciences 5(2)

Special Issue: Climate Changes and Brazilian Coastal Zones ReBentos Metodologia Para Quantificação de Perigos Costeiros Projeto MMA-Perigos Livro Quantificação de perigos costeiros  101 Cartas Temáticas de Perigos costeiros Internationalization

• II (Salvador, 2011) and III (Florianópolis, 2013) Workhops on Climate Changes in Coastal Zones; • Sensitivity of Central and South American Benthic Communities to Global Climate Changes (Ilhabela, 2012); • Blue Carbon Scientific Working Group in Brazil (Rio Grande, 2014). • Global Change in Coastal Marine Ecosystems, Third International Symposium on Effects of Climate Change on the World's Oceans (Santos, 2015); • Participation of members of the ZC sub-network in the following initiatives: – The Blue Carbon Initiative – Latin-American Ocean Acidification Network – Integrated Marine Ecosystem Biogeochemistry and Ecosystem Research (IMBER) – Scientific Commitee on Oceanic Research (SCOR) Capacity building

• 10 postdocs projects • 30 doctorate (Dr) • 40 masters (MSc) • 26 scientific initiation (IC) • 6 undergraduate monographs (TCC) • 20 industrial technical development (DTI) scholarships Knowledge transfer • Declaration of Rio Grande (2009); • Members of CZ sub-network are – involved in several public and private initiatives conducted by MCTI, MMA, ex-MPA, ICMBio, Fundação Boticário, IBGE, etc; – contributing to the “National Adaptation Plan for Climate Changes” (PNA); – contributing to the “Special Report on Coastal Zones and Cities & Climate Changes” produced by PBMC. • Rebentos works closely with environmental educators; • Technology transfer between Brazilian and Canadian universities & private sector for development of coastal monitoring systems. Impacts of climate change on the Brazilian coastal zone: trends, vulnerability and potential harms Elevation of mean sea level

Elevation of sea level causes Flooding Erosion Salty water intrusion Changes in sedimentation patterns Reduction of light field in water column Impacts on coastal infrastructure & coastal community MSL increase in Brazilian coast

Global Sea Level Observing System (GLOSS-Brasil) - 12 tide gauges along the Brazilian coast

Cananeia (50 years), rate of increase of 4.2 mm/year but Earth’s crust showed decrease of 1.59 mm/year during 2004- 2006 period (Costa, 2007);

MSL increases along the Brazilian coastline, with an higher trend in the Southern coastline due to increase of storms in El Nino years (Lousada et al, 2013); Mesquita (1997) Coastal Erosion Photos: Sousa, P.H., Silva, F.G. & Calliari, L.

Conceição da Barra (ES)

Ilha Comprida (SP)

Rio Grande do Sul (Farol da Conceição) Coastal and estuarine circulation

• Costal and estuarine circulation is affected by changes in sea level, tides, winds and river discharges; • The increase of temperature and changes in salinity patterns will affect physiology of organisms altering its distribution, productivity, growth and Lagoa dos Patos, RS reproduction • Changes in both physical and biogeochemical parameters affect ecosystems and local economy. • Reduction in salinity, increase in turbidity and sediment dynamic are observed in Lagoa dos Patos Estuary (Toldo Jr. et al., 2006); Primary production

• Biological enrichment on the Brazilian shelf depends heavily on continental discharges and favorable upwelling winds • Changes in sea surface temperature, and hydrography will alter light availability and nutrients in the photic layer with consequences on species composition and rate of primary production • Combination of incursions of South Atlantic Central Waters (rich in nitrates) with riverine plumes (rich in phosphate and silicate) increases primary production and alters composition of phytoplankton (Moser et al., 2014). c aPít u l o 13

MONITORAMENTO DE LONGO PRAZO DE COSTÕES ROCHOSOS Rocky Shores

• Rocky shores, colonized by benthic organisms, are abundant from Parnaíba (PI) to Torres (RS). • Thermal stress may cause reduction and massive mortality during periods of low tides

I (Coutinho et al., 2016).

• Increaset in frequency and

o intensityF of extreme events may alter the community composition and its diversity (Coutinho et al., 2016).

Os ecossistemas costeiros estão entre os mais vulneráveis às alterações provocadas pelas mudanças climáticas, destacando-se as regiões do mediolitoral que têm demonstrado mudanças biogeográﬁcas mais rápidas (Barry et al., 1995; Helmuth et al., 2006) do que as encontradas em ambientes terrestres (Root et al., 2003). Monitoramentos de longo prazo têm revelado que os limites de distribuição da biota do mediolitoral de substratos consolidados têm avançado em direção aos polos em um ritmo superior a 50 km por década (Rickets et al., 1985; Southward et al., 1995; Helmuth et al., 2006). Esses ecossistemas são sujeitos a um mosaico de condições ambientais como temperatura, vento, umidade e radiação, que mu- dam repentinamente ou em poucas horas. Tais alterações podem agir como inibidores para determinados tipos de comportamento, como a liberação de larvas (Chan et al., 2001) que inﬂuenciam na abundância dos organismos. 180 Mangroves • Mangroves are distributed from Amapá to Santa Catarina (8% of total area in the world) • The elevation of temperature will increase its energy spending in respiration and transpiration (Schaeffer-Novelli et al., 2016). • The increase of extreme events may lead to high erosion, silt deposition, mangrove mortality, and reduction in plant productivity (Schaeffer-Novelli et al., 2016). • Progressive migration towards the interior with the intrusion of saline waters. Mangroves

In N and NE, high erosion around river mouth and deltas are counterbalanced by expansion of continental mangroves

Reduction in precipitation and damming of rivers have caused salty water intrusion in estuaries, with migration of mangroves (Godoy & Lacerda, 2015).

In SE, mangroves are found between Serra do Mar and ocean but are disappearing due to sea level elevation, increase in extreme events, and anthropogenic pressure WORLD VIEWA personal take on events Add coasImportancetal vegetatio ofn tBlueo Carbon the climate critical list Forests are protected, but carbon sinks in mangroves, seagrasses and marshes are ignored. MarWOgareth dRa SilLvaD Cope VrtinIo EwanWts BrazAil ptoe rcshoannalg tea tkhea otn. events Add coastal vegetation to the climate critical list Forests are protected, but carbon sinks in mangroves, seagrasses and marshes are ignored. Margareth da Silva Copertino wants Brazil to change that.

Copertino, Nature, 2011 DEGRADATION AND DESTRUCTION OF BLUE-CARBON Importance of coastal vegetation to the carbon SYSTEMS global balance RESULTS IN IMMEDIATE EMISSIONS. DEGRADATION AND DESTRUCTION OF BLUE-CARBON SYSTEMS RESULTS IN IMMEDIATE EMISSIONS.

NATURE.COM Margareth da Silva Copertino is a lecturer in biological Discuss this article oceanography at the Institute of Oceanography, Federal University of online at: Ri o Grande (FURG), Ri o Grande, Brazil. go.nature.com/a5rgal e-mail: [email protected]

changes in carbon chemistry and acidification processes, along with the temperature rise, which reduce calcification rates by coralline algae;

rising sea level and frequency of extreme weather events that in turn should reduce the transparency of the water and compromise the primary production system (Horta et al., 2016). Socioeconomics fishery

A study of economic evaluation, which was based on the records of El Niño and river discharge over almost five decades (1964-2008;. Möller et al, 2009), calculated the average economic loss of around $ 7.4 million per year in pink shrimp fishing in El Niño years (Abdallah & Hellebrandt, 2012)

Fishing activity in the Patos Lagoon and coastal zone involves approximately 30,000 people directly and indirectly in the fisheries production sector (Abdallah & Hellebrandt, 2012). c

The effet of Climate Change on Fisheries Economics – Artisanal Fishing, RS, Brazil

7000 Landings of pink shrimp, RS, Brazil - from 1964 to 2006 6000

5000

4000

3000

o 2000

T 1000

4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6

-1000 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 -2000

-3000 years US$ 16,858 US$ 6,500 US$ 14,291 US$ 7,033 US$ 897 US$ 7,352 US$ 9,795

US$ 3,767 Values in US$1,ooo, real price of March, 2011 Changes in pink shrimp caught in Lagoa dos Patos (RS) from 1964 to 2006, compared to the These values could have been added to the total of average annual catch for therevregionenue offor theneutral pink-shyearsrimp fi(axissherie0sis if equivalentthe El Niño to the average of 2012 tons). Average economic loss estimatesevinenyearst had naffectedot happebynedevents. El Nino are indicated in blue boxes. Abdallah & Hellebrandt 2012 Workshop SACC-HD,01-02/06/11 Mesocosm & Laboratory Experiments

Seawater warming and ocean acidification will accelerate bleaching events in coral reefs and accelerate biodiversity loss; Effects of heat waves on population of key species of reef ecosystems have been studied (Krug et al, 2013; Lion et al, 2008 ; Lisbon, 2016); Laboratory experiments showed the degree of resistance and resilience of some species of the Brazilian coral reefs to warming and acidification (Silva, 2008, Vasconcellos, 2011, Gonzaga et al., 2011) The mesocosm infrastructure created by the CORAL VIVO project replied with a good degree of realism conditions in shallow areas of coastal reefs (Duarte et al., 2015, Scherner et al., 2016). Observational systems and monitoring network

Rede de Monitoramento de Habitats Bentônicos Costeiros (Rebentos) Sistema de Monitoramento da Costa Brasileira (SiMCosta) ReBentos

Overall Objective Create and implement an integrated network to study coastal benthic habitats along the Brazilian coast (ReBentos) to establish long time series on benthic biodiversity as an strategy to detect the effects of global climate changes. ReBentos

GOALS • Stimulate a thematic discussion related to climate • changes; . • Establish long time series on biodiversity of benthic coastal habitats; • Produce knowledge to evaluate the effect of global climate changes and local impacts; • Capacity building; • Environmental education and communication ReBentos

Numbers Actually 166 participants, from 57 research/teaching institutions, located in the 17 coastal Brazilian states, being three foreign (USA, Portugal, United Kingdom) ReBentos - Actions

• Publication of an e-book with 20 protocols for the monitoring of benthic environments • Publication of a special issue of Brazilian Journal of Oceanography, with nine knowledge synthesis on the Brazilian benthic coastal biodiversity • 67 linked projects • 37 monitoring points

• For more information, see: http://rebentos.org/ Rebentos

http://www.rebentos.org/ SiMCosta Sistema de Monitoramento da Costa Brasileira www.simcosta.furg.br Sistema de Monitoramento da Costa Brasileira

Main Objective

• Provide long-term, accurate, and timely climate- related information of the Brazilian coastal zone others – Provide continuous and free access to high quality data; – Develop tools and educational material to be used by educators; – Contribute to the Brazilian government to establish climate-related policies. Brazilian Coastal Monitoring System

SIMCosta Moorings (buoys)Moorings Remote Sensing Tidal Gauges HF Radar HF Others SiMCosta Brazilian Coastal Monitoring System

• Initial Phase

4 buoys in S & SE 12 tide gauges

• Second Phase

6 buoys in NE & N 12 tide gauges Meteorological & Oceanographic Data Tide Gauges WatchKeeper Buoy

SiMCosta RJ-2 SiMCosta RJ-1 SiMCosta – Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro

Air

• Atmospheric pressure • Air temperature • Relative Humidity • Solar radiation • Wind speed and direction

Ocean

• Surface temperature • Surface salinity • Waves (height and direction) • Profile of currents

WatchKeeper Buoy

November 19, 2014 AXYS WatchKeeper Ocean Data Acquisition System

Tide Gauges in Southern Region

Pilot Project

Rio Grande, RS Tide Gauges in Northern Region

Belém, PA

Santana, AP http://www.simcosta.furg.br Conclusions and recommendations Conclusions

• Research on impacts, vulnerability and adaptation to climate change in Brazil's coastal areas is still limited by – knowledge of functioning of natural dynamics – lack of long-term environmental monitoring • Syntheses of the state of the art and analysis of impacts and vulnerabilities in coastal zones have been produced • Observational systems were created for time series analysis (ex. Atlas-B, Rebentos, SiMCosta, etc) Conclusions

• Several studies have been conducted on vulnerability, exposure and hazards (dynamics and impacts) on coastal zones; • There is a lack of studies on the quantification of coastal risks, with projections of both habitat and infrastructure loss; • The following changes are expected in Brazilian coastal ecosystems due to climate changes: – abundance and spatial distribution of key species – increase of opportunistic species; – increase of frequency of bleaching events and mortality of corals; – loss of seagrass banks – reduction in areas occupied by mangroves Recommendations

• Improve measurements of sea level along the Brazilian coast with geodetic measurements, control of crustal movements, etc. (GLOSS-BR, SiMCosta, IBGE, DHN) • Strengthen observational and monitoring projects (ex. Atlas-B, Rebentos and SiMCosta); • Create large multi-institutional laboratories with appropriate infrastructure for mesocosm experiments; • Conduct further (other regions) studies on impacts of climate variability and climate changes in fishery socioeconomics; • Use regional oceanic models (un)coupled with Global Climate Models (ex. BESM) to elaborate future scenarios on distribution of physical and biogeochemical properties in Brazilian shelf and coastal zone; • Increase educational and public policies on climate changes Obrigado & thanks www.mudancasclimaticas.zonascosteiras.furg.br http://www.rebentos.org/ www.simcosta.furg.br e-mail: [email protected]