Active policing of small , along with targeted and , are crucial in stopping a wave, writes Andrew Bushnell.

As those of us living in Melbourne know all too well, this is PREVENTING AND STOPPING AN not only an academic concern. Over ANDREW BUSHNELL > ESCALATION OF Research Fellow at the the last two years, Victoria has seen CRIMINALITY IS, MORE Institute of Public Affairs robbery rates rise 20 per cent, theft THAN ANYTHING ELSE, rise 9 per cent, and assault rise 8 per A JOB FOR THE . cent. Crime has a habit of begetting n politics, the range of ideas more crime, and the failure to crack but three other developed countries. that the public will accept is down on serious offending has seen There is good reason to believe known as the Overton Window. Melbourne fall into a crime wave. that incarceration is not the I Ideas from outside the window And while crime is not up all correct tool with which to address can shift the public discourse, over the country, international Australians’ concerns about crime. changing what people think polling shows that Australians Instead, preventing and stopping of as normal. consistently report not feeling safe an escalation of criminality like The same is true for behaviour. in neighbourhoods at night. On this that seen in Victoria is, more than People’s conduct is governed by their measure Australia has ranked in anything else, a job for the police. idea of what is socially acceptable. the bottom 10 developed countries The judiciary and do The more that antisocial behaviour for more than a decade. This have a role to play in reducing crime is tolerated, the more it will be comes despite a rise in the national and over the longer- normalised, and the more of it incarceration rate to the highest term. However, because of the society will have. And that is how a level since Federation, and spending way that criminals think, policing crime wave forms. on each that outstrips all remains the most effective way to

OCTOBER 2017 | IPA Review 29 R HOW TO STOP A CRIME WAVE Volume 69 I 3 R FROM THE EDITOR Volume 69 I 2

deter crime. As the economist Alex crime in New York during Giulani’s study found that areas surrounding Tabarrok has written, criminals leadership. For example, in 1993, the targeted area actually benefit in general are impulsive, placing there were 1946 murders in the from the targeting too. greater value on immediate benefits city. By 2015, this had fallen to The success of targeted policing and costs, and failing to consider 352. While Giuliani was mayor, is another demonstration of the longer-term consequences. This violent crime dropped by 56 per validity of the rational choice model means that they are more responsive cent. Robbery fell by 67 per cent, of crime: criminals respond to a to ‘quick, clear and consistent’ and aggravated assault by 28 per raising of the costs of crime, whether penalties than to cent. Not all of this decline can those costs be the chances of being affecting their more distant futures, be attributed to broken windows caught or the effort required to find like longer sentences. policing. Crime had begun to fall opportunities for crime. Policing raises the perceived before 1993, and the United States costs of crime to criminals by experienced a nationwide reduction increasing the probability that a in crime across the 90s that was AUSTRALIA IS ALREADY AMONG crime will either be interrupted visible in cities with similar policies > THE MOST or have adverse consequences. and without. But a 2015 review of HEAVILY-POLICED This in turn short circuits the broken windows policing across a COUNTRIES IN THE process of normalisation that leads number of jurisdictions concluded DEVELOPED WORLD. to a crime wave. that focusing on disorder led to a statistically significant reduction in BROKEN WINDOWS all types of crime. In Victoria, despite the fact that 50 POLICING INVOLVES While the theory of the per cent of criminals in our prisons > ACTIVE POLICING OF deterrent effect of policing is sound, come from just 6 per cent of the SMALL CRIMES IN the practical implications are less state’s postcodes, the government has ORDER TO PREVENT clear. The answer is not as simple positioned two or more quasi-police ESCALATION. as increasing police numbers. More ‘community safety officers’ at every police will theoretically increase train station in the city, even those in Victorian Premier Daniel Andrews and Chief Commissioner Graham Ashton. | Fairfax Photo. the chances for criminals of being decidedly tranquil suburbs. This insight forms the basis of the caught, but we also need to account However, hot spots policing on policing theory known as ‘broken for how effectively police resources its own is not enough. An increased constituents of high-crime areas A VISIBLE, ACTIVE Targeted policing depends on windows’. Broken windows policing are deployed. police presence in select areas of the to develop an understanding of POLICE PRESENCE the police having a wide range involves active policing of small Australia is already among the city can make residents of those areas the community’s expectations and > IS NECESSARY FOR of discretion to connect with crimes in order to prevent the most heavily-policed countries feel under siege and reduce their needs. This outreach is usually PREVENTING THE the expectations of law-abiding escalation of both the number in the developed world. A recent cooperation with the police. combined with a greater focus on NORMALISATION residents and to interrupt patterns of crimes and their seriousness. IPA research report found that In , Giuliani was more personal forms of policing, OF CRIME. of criminality. Civil libertarians are Originating in a research paper by Australia has more police per succeeded as mayor by Michael such as foot patrols. right to point out that there needs to criminologists James Q. Wilson and capita than all other common law Bloomberg, who doubled-down on A visible, active police presence a system of safeguards to make sure George Kelling, broken windows countries bar Ireland and the tenth broken windows theory, commanding is necessary for preventing the This dynamic is underpinned by the police are not acting arbitrarily. But policing became famous when highest annual per capita spending police to institute a policy of ‘stop normalisation of crime. However, moral authority of the law, which equally, police advocates are right adopted by the New York Police on police services in the OECD, at and frisk’ for anyone acting at all there is no reason that this presence is derived from its role in securing to argue that successful policing Department following the election $427 for every Australian. suspiciously in targeted areas of the has to be akin to, as critics often public order and allowing individuals depends on trusting the police to do of as mayor in 1993. While the circumstances of each city. This policy was criticised by suggest, an occupying military to go about their lives in peace. their jobs. New York began its crackdown Australian jurisdiction are different, civil libertarians, including the Cato force. Such critics often forget that The primary responsibility of the Ultimately, as New York City by targeting the estimated 250,000 there is reason to believe that, rather Institute, for its disproportionate the majority of people in high- criminal system—the police, shows, empowering the police to daily subway fare evaders, then than committing to yet higher impact on black and Latino people, crime areas are law-abiding and the courts, and punishments—is crack down on seemingly minor expanded to public disorder offences spending, we ought to be looking for and for enabling the police to harass they are the primary victims of to keep the community safe. The offending is the only way to head off like public drug use, begging, better value for money. people for no good reason. rampant criminality. Hot spots greatest threat to this agenda is the an escalation not only in the number and . In Australia, we see The targeting of police to problem For this reason, the policing is better understood as imposition on the of crimes but in the severity of the similar signs of disorder, like public areas is known as ‘hot spots policing’. implementation of targeted policing needs-based policing. system of other agendas. Police, for offending. Crime waves are caused drug use, often leading to aggressive While critics have alleged that this should go hand-in-hand with a There is a virtuous circle between example, are not social workers, and by the normalisation of crime. Let’s behaviour on the streets. approach merely displaces crime, a form of community policing—the the effectiveness of the police and it is not their role to bring about not leave the Overton Window of There was a dramatic fall in recent University College London practice of police outreach to community confidence in the police. societal change. crime in pieces. R

30 IPA Review | ipa.org.au OCTOBER 2017 | IPA Review 31