, January 3, 2018

Decision Support Briefing #1 As of: January 1, 2018, 4 PM EST

Created by: Josh Weiss, Meteorologist Wilmington, NC

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/1/2018 4:36 PM Main Points

Hazard Impacts Location Timing

East of i-95 has the Most likely during the Accumulating snow and sleet highest potential for afternoon through the late Snow may cause hazardous travel accumulating snow evening of Wednesday

Late Wednesday morning No freezing rain, but some sleet Along and near the through Wednesday Ice is possible coast afternoon

No significant wind impacts are - - Wind forecast

Coastal No is expected - -

Small Craft Advisory conditions Late Wednesday morning likely with gusts to Force All coastal waters Marine through Thursday possible

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/1/2018 4:36 PM Summary of Greatest Impacts Snow

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Low Confidence Ice

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Low Confidence Wind

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Nearly Certain Coastal Flood

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Nearly Certain Marine

None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme

Moderate Confidence Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/1/2018 4:36 PM Watches/Warnings in Effect

 Wind Chill Advisory in Effect for TONIGHT through Tuesday morning for wind chills reaching as low as 0-5 degrees.

 No watches are in effect for the winter storm on Wednesday. It is possible Winter Storm Watches will be needed overnight or early on Tuesday.

Wind Chill Advisory in effect for tonight. Wind chills will reach 0-5 degrees.

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/1/2018 4:36 PM Expected Snowfall  Timing: - Precipitation will likely overspread the area from south to north beginning late Wednesday morning.

- A wintry mix of sleet and snow is possible through the afternoon.

- Precipitation should transition to all snow during the evening and end from SW to NE Wednesday night.

 Impacts: - 1 to 3” of snow and sleet accumulation is possible on all surfaces.

- Travel may become hazardous during the afternoon and evening

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/1/2018 4:36 PM The Range of Possibilities

Maximum Potential Accumulation

Official forecast snow amounts

There remains considerable spread in forecast snowfall. Near the coast, the official forecast is much closer to the maximum potential accumulation, meaning a higher confidence in these higher totals. Inland the forecast is much closer to the “expect this much” meaning there is higher confidence in the lower values. Expect at least this much See more: http://www.weather.gov/ilm/winter snowfall

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/1/2018 4:36 PM Key Points

 Increasing confidence in a winter storm producing accumulating snow and sleet across the eastern Carolinas.

 Wintry precipitation is expected to develop late Wednesday morning, and persist through Wednesday night.

 Accumulating snow of 1-3” is possible on all surfaces, some sleet is possible as well. This will likely create hazardous travel Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.

 There remains considerable uncertainty into snow amounts as some mixing is likely, and the track of the low pressure could waver. Forecast updates will create changes to accumulations, both in amounts and location.

 The next winter storm briefing will be issued by 10 AM Tuesday.

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/1/2018 4:36 PM Contact and Next Briefing Information

Next Briefing When: By 10 AM Tue, January 2, 2018

Briefing Webpage: http://weather.gov/ilm/briefing

Web: Facebook: http://weather.gov/ilm NWSWilmingtonNC

E-mail: Twitter: [email protected] @NWSWilmingtonNC

Disclaimer: The information contained within this briefing is time-sensitive, do not use after 10 AM Tue, January 2, 2018

Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/1/2018 4:36 PM