Winter Storm, January 3, 2018
Decision Support Briefing #1 As of: January 1, 2018, 4 PM EST
Created by: Josh Weiss, Meteorologist National Weather Service Wilmington, NC
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/1/2018 4:36 PM Main Points
Hazard Impacts Location Timing
East of i-95 has the Most likely during the Accumulating snow and sleet highest potential for afternoon through the late Snow may cause hazardous travel accumulating snow evening of Wednesday
Late Wednesday morning No freezing rain, but some sleet Along and near the through Wednesday Ice is possible coast afternoon
No significant wind impacts are - - Wind forecast
Coastal Flood No coastal flooding is expected - -
Small Craft Advisory conditions Late Wednesday morning likely with gusts to Gale Force All coastal waters Marine through Thursday possible
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/1/2018 4:36 PM Summary of Greatest Impacts Snow
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Low Confidence Ice
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Low Confidence Wind
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Nearly Certain Coastal Flood
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Nearly Certain Marine
None Limited Elevated Significant Extreme
Moderate Confidence Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/1/2018 4:36 PM Watches/Warnings in Effect
Wind Chill Advisory in Effect for TONIGHT through Tuesday morning for wind chills reaching as low as 0-5 degrees.
No watches are in effect for the winter storm on Wednesday. It is possible Winter Storm Watches will be needed overnight or early on Tuesday.
Wind Chill Advisory in effect for tonight. Wind chills will reach 0-5 degrees.
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/1/2018 4:36 PM Expected Snowfall Timing: - Precipitation will likely overspread the area from south to north beginning late Wednesday morning.
- A wintry mix of sleet and snow is possible through the afternoon.
- Precipitation should transition to all snow during the evening and end from SW to NE Wednesday night.
Impacts: - 1 to 3” of snow and sleet accumulation is possible on all surfaces.
- Travel may become hazardous during the afternoon and evening
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/1/2018 4:36 PM The Range of Possibilities
Maximum Potential Accumulation
Official forecast snow amounts
There remains considerable spread in forecast snowfall. Near the coast, the official forecast is much closer to the maximum potential accumulation, meaning a higher confidence in these higher totals. Inland the forecast is much closer to the “expect this much” meaning there is higher confidence in the lower values. Expect at least this much See more: http://www.weather.gov/ilm/winter snowfall
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/1/2018 4:36 PM Key Points
Increasing confidence in a winter storm producing accumulating snow and sleet across the eastern Carolinas.
Wintry precipitation is expected to develop late Wednesday morning, and persist through Wednesday night.
Accumulating snow of 1-3” is possible on all surfaces, some sleet is possible as well. This will likely create hazardous travel Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night.
There remains considerable uncertainty into snow amounts as some mixing is likely, and the track of the low pressure could waver. Forecast updates will create changes to accumulations, both in amounts and location.
The next winter storm briefing will be issued by 10 AM Tuesday.
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/1/2018 4:36 PM Contact and Next Briefing Information
Next Briefing When: By 10 AM Tue, January 2, 2018
Briefing Webpage: http://weather.gov/ilm/briefing
Web: Facebook: http://weather.gov/ilm NWSWilmingtonNC
E-mail: Twitter: [email protected] @NWSWilmingtonNC
Disclaimer: The information contained within this briefing is time-sensitive, do not use after 10 AM Tue, January 2, 2018
Weather Forecast Office Presentation Created Wilmington, NC Follow us on Twitter Follow us on Facebook 1/1/2018 4:36 PM