V22, 4 Friday, Sept. 9, 2016

WTHR/Howey Poll: Senate tossup Bayh leads Young 44-40%; Gregg up 40-35% over Holcomb, Trump/Pence ahead by 7% By BRIAN A. HOWEY – The revamped gu- bernatorial and U.S. Senate races are up for grabs in the latest WTHR/Howey Politics Indiana Poll. Democrat John Gregg maintains a 40-35% lead over Republican in the race for governor, with Libertar- ian Rex Bell at 6%, while Democrat ’s lead over Re- publican in the U.S. Senate race has dwindled to 44-40%. For Gregg, Democrat Evan Bayh is now in a dog fight with U.S. Rep. Todd Young in the the new numbers latest WTHR/Howey Politics Poll. (HPI photos by Brian A. Howey and Mark actually show a Curry) decline from the initial April WTHR/Howey Poll that ary Clinton, who trails Republican 43-36%, showed him trailing Gov. 49-45%. Pollster with Libertarian Gary Johnson coming in a 11%. Another Gene Ulm of Public Opinion attributed Gregg’s decline to 20% in that race are either voting for someone else, not the unpopularity of Democratic presidential nominee Hill- Continued on page 3

Will Republicans stay loyal?

By CHRIS SAUTTER WASHINGTON – Just as surprising as Donald Trump’s nomination is the fact that many Republicans are embracing certain Trump positions that are antithetical to the party’s core beliefs. Some in the GOP, like Indiana’s Governor and Vice Presidential “I think it’s inarguable that nominee Mike Pence, are bending over backwards to support state- Vladimir Putin has been a ments by Trump that are way stronger leader in his country outside the party’s mainstream of thought — positions they couldn’t than has been in possibly share. The most egregious this country. And that’s going to example is the way some Repub- change the day Donald Trump licans have defended Trump’s unflinching admiration for Rus- becomes president.” sian President Vladimir Putin, - Gov. Mike Pence a tyrant and thug who Trump Page 2 seems to view as a leadership model. Graham were both quick to distance It was just four years ago that the themselves. “Other than destroying GOP nominee, , harshly every instrument of democracy in criticized President Barrack Obama for his own country, having opposition not taking the Putin threat seriously people killed, dismembering neighbors enough. Now the Russian menace through military force, and being the seems to have evaporated in the eyes benefactor of the butcher of Damas- of Trump’s surrogates. cus, he’s a good guy,” cracked Gra- The hypocrisy on this is palpa- ham. ble. Undoubtedly, Republicans would The degree to which Republi- Howey Politics Indiana have characterized Obama as traitor- cans hold their noses and support the WWHowey Media, LLC 405 ous had he lavished similar praise on Trump candidacy will have enormous Ave., Suite the Russian leader as Trump has on impact not just on the presidential 300 Indianapolis, IN 46204 Putin. race, but on the down ballot races as Since ’s post- well, including in Indiana. A WTHR/ www.howeypolitics.com convention bounce that stretched her Howey Politics Indiana poll released lead to close to double digits, there Friday shows Trump leading Clinton Brian A. Howey, Publisher has been a slow erosion of support for in Indiana by 7 points, 43% to 36%, Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington her. The principle reason for the tight- with Gary Johnson at 11%. Trump is Jack E. Howey, Editor ening of the race is that Republicans garnering the support of 94% of Re- have been coming home to Mary Lou Howey, Editor support Trump. Clinton enjoys Maureen Hayden, Statehouse support by over 90% of Demo- Mark Curry, photography crats, while Trump’s Republican support had been in the high 70s%, low 80% range. Now, Subscriptions according to the most recent HPI, HPI Daily Wire $599 polls, Trump is doing better HPI Weekly, $350 with Republican voters than he Ray Volpe, Account Manager was six weeks ago. 317.602.3620 However, Trump’s cozying up to Putin is likely to drive a publican men and 84% of Republican email: [email protected] deeper wedge within the party. The women while Clinton is getting 89% of Contact HPI Bush crowd abandoned Trump long both Democratic men and women. [email protected] ago after he humiliated Jeb during the In the September 6-8 Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 primaries. Other party faithful swore survey, Trump is also crushing Clin- him off after he launched a personal, ton among Independent men, 42%- Washington: 202.256.5822 racially tinged attack against a Hoo- 18%, while nosing ahead of her with Business Office: 317.602.3620 sier born Hispanic federal judge who independent women 37% to 32%. is hearing a Trump University lawsuit. Hoosier down ballot Democrats stand © 2016, Howey Politics Still more jumped off the bandwagon a much better chance of winning if Indiana. All rights reserved. when Trump went after Gold Star Trump renews his tendency to alienate parents who spoke at the Democratic Republican and independent women Photocopying, Internet forward- National Convention. Nonetheless, away from him, reducing the overall ing, faxing or reproducing in as Trump has become more focused margin of victory in Indiana to below any form, whole or part, is a the past couple of weeks, wayward 5%. violation of federal law without Republicans have been returning to The U.S. Senate race provides permission from the publisher. the fold. a clearer example of what happens But Trump’s most recent when Republicans come home. In incident of heaping praise on Putin a July 12-14 Garin-Hart-Yang poll during Wednesday’s Commander-in- conducted shortly after former Sena- Chief forum following by his interview tor Evan Bayh entered the race, fully with Larry King on the English speak- 20% of Republicans were support- ing Russian TV has Republicans again ing the Democrat over Congressman disavowing their standard bearer’s Todd Young. In the WTHR/Howey poll, remarks. House Speaker Bayh’s support among both Republi- and South Carolina Senator Lindsey can men and women is down to 11% Page 3 while his lead over Young is just 44% to 40%. His overall in the low double digits, though considerably tighter that favorable rating is just 48%, though his unfavorable rating the 21% lead in the Garin-Hart-Yang poll conducted in remains low at 28%. July. The top of the ticket could have even more All eyes are currently on the upcoming presidential impact on the competitive 9th District congressional race debates. A CNN/ORC poll completed just before Wednes- between Democrat Shelli Yoder and Republican Trey Hol- day’s Commander-in-Chief forum indicated that 51% of lingsworth. A poll conducted shortly after the May 2nd voters believe Trump’s approach to foreign policy would primary showed Yoder and Hollingsworth tied at 41%. put the country at risk. Trump is also facing increased The Cook partisan rating is plus 9% Republican. How- scrutiny over his foundation’s contribution to a Super ever, Yoder is an experienced, attractive candidate run- PAC supporting the attorney general’s re-election ning against a flawed out-of-stater, who moved to Indiana campaign before her office dropped its case against Trump from Tennessee to buy the House seat. A big Trump win University. combined with strong 9th district numbers by Young could Trump will need to give satisfactory answers to present problems for Yoder, though not insurmountable. In these and other questions or his standing in the polls could any event, as pointed out in an analysis in , recent drop to post-convention levels. Trump cannot win if a internal GOP polling confirms that the race between Yoder majority of voters believe he would put the country at risk. and Hollingsworth is currently a tossup. But if Hoosier Republicans, especially GOP women, remain I would offer a word of caution about jumping to loyal to the party in spite of Donald Trump’s affinity for conclusions about the races tested in WTHR/Howey poll. Putin, his controversial immigration proposals, and other The sample indicates that Hoosier conservatives outnum- outlandish ideas and statements, Hoosier Democrats might ber liberals almost two and a half to one (48%--20%) miss out what began as a promising year. v whereas that ratio in past presidential election years has been closer to 2-to-1 (40%--20%). If the Indiana elector- Chris Sautter is a Washington-based Democratic ate is more like the conservative/liberal ratio of past presi- political consultant with long ties to the Hoosier dential election years, then Bayh’s lead is more accurately state.

Young. But after some $3.5 million spent and 8,000 TV WTHR/HPI Poll, from page 1 ads running statewide, Young has mustered national PAC voting or undecided. money and has now made this a race that could decide Pence is a fascinating element control of the U.S. Senate. in both the presidential and guberna- “Bayh just needs to dis- torial races. He hasn’t helped Trump in qualify Young,” Ulm said. “Given him Indiana; in fact the presidential nomi- and his dad and their long history in nee’s numbers have declined since the the state, what can Evan Bayh say April WTHR/Howey poll. And because to inform voters about a new Evan he is so polarizing, with a fav/unfav Bayh? How can we break free from of 47/45%, Pence is of little help to Hillary? That’s his problem.” Ulm said Lt. Gov. Holcomb, whom he elevated that Young “needs to make the race to the post last March, then endorsed about Evan Bayh.” during the 12-day nomination sprint in The poll, the first of three July. Only $1.2 million of Pence’s war for WTHR/Howey Politics between chest hended up with Holcomb. now and the Nov. 8 election, was The Senate race numbers conducted of 600 likely voters Sept. represent an unprecedented challenge 6-8, including 360 landline users and for former senator and governor Bayh, 240 cellphone users, with a margin of who hasn’t experienced a close race error of 4.0%. The sample consisted since his first gubernatorial race in of 40% independents, 31% Republi- 1988. Bayh resurfaced in the Senate can and 28% Democrat, demograph- race in July when national Democrats ics Public Opinion Strategies pollster forced nominee out of the Gene Ulm said are consistent with race. He brought a $10 million war the unpopularity of the major political chest he had hoarded since he bolted parties and the two nominees. Ulm from a 2010 reelection bid, claim- has polled in Indiana since 1996 for ing an immediate money edge over the Indiana Realtors. Page 4

This is the first independent are saying, ‘I don’t like that guy, but I media polling in the two races that hate the other one.’” The April WTHR/ were altered when Donald Trump se- Howey Politics Poll had Trump leading lected Gov. Mike Pence to be his presi- Clinton 47 to 39%. That survey did not dential nominee in July, with Holcomb include Johnson. But the fascinating winning the GOP nomination. statistic is that Trump’s Indiana num- It comes in the most vola- bers have actually declined since Gov. tile election cycle in modern Indiana Pence joined the ticket in mid-July. history, with the exit of the polarizing Of Trump’s 43% support, 33% of Gov. Pence to the national ticket, the respondents said they were “definitely” revamped tickets with the emergence voting for the billionaire, while 10% of Holcomb and Bayh, and the historic said they were “probably” supporting negatives of the two major party presi- him. Clinton had 26% definite and 10% dential nominees. probable. The next key pivot points come Pence has been of little help to on Sept. 26 with the first presidential Trump in Indiana and actually has more debate, and Sept. 27 when the three value nationally where he is seen as a gubernatorial candidates debate in lifeline to establishment Republicans. In Indianapolis. Should Johnson not make Indiana, he is a lightning rod of con- the presidential debate threshold, a troversy after episodes like the Reli- defining factor for the final two months gious Freedom Restoration Act. Asked of this riveting cycle will be where if Pence’s inclusion on the ticket made Johnson voters migrate, as well as how Hoosiers more or less likely to vote independent females vote. for Trump, 41% said more likely and “It’s going to be all about inde- 38% said less likely. Those numbers pentent women,” Ulm said. “Who they mirror both the Indiana right/wrong support will go a long way to track numbers of 47/44% and who wins a lot of races, and Pence’s fav/unfavs of 47/45%. not just in Indiana, but every- “He’s largely irrelevant,” where. So if we see move- Ulm said of Pence’s impact on ment after the debate, where the Indiana presidential race. Johnson voters go away or “He’ll do better nationally than shrink, where they move with here. He’s net neutral with independent women will hold intensity against him.” the fate of down-ballot candi- Trump is finding his best dates.” support at 52% in South- Here is a polling ern Indiana, just 48% in the breakdown of the three major moderate Republican rich races: doughnut counties around Indianapolis, and 44% in the Presidential: Pence Fort Wayne area. has little impact Ulm expects that John- The Donald Trump/ son will gradually fade if he Mike Pence presidential ticket doesn’t make the pivotal Sept. has a 43 to 36% lead over 26 presidential debate, which Hillary Clinton with Johnson requires him to poll at least coming in at 11%. Add in 3% 15% in five national polls. who won’t vote in the race, “Which way those Johnson 1% who will support someone numbers go will be piv- else and 6% undecided, that’s otal,” said Ulm, who said the an unprecedented 20% not Libertarian is cleaving more yet in the column of the major into Clinton’s support. “So if party nominees. we see movement after the “Why is he winning?” debate, where Johnson vot- asked Ulm. “Hillary Clinton. ers go away or shrink, where That’s the only thing. Voters they move with independent women, that will hold the fate Page 5 of down-ballot candidates.” have Trump. Between now and Trump’s favorable/ election day, Bayh’s future de- unfavorable rating stands at pends on his ability to separate 42-54%, but Hoosier voters himself from Hillary Clinton. If dislike Clinton even more, he’s able to do that, put some 34-62%. When we asked distance there, he may stop whether the nominees have this race from closing.” the right temperament to be Because of this poll, the president, 45% said Trump’s HPI Horse Race is moving this was “very poor” while 21% race from “Leans Bayh” to said he was either “very “Tossup.” good” or “good.” Clinton’s very poor number stood at Gubernatorial race: 30% and 35% rated her Holcomb’s blank slate “good or very good.” Eric Holcomb becomes the “blank slate” that John U.S. Senate race: Gregg was in our April survey. Bayh and Hillary Some 44% of respondents If Bayh thought he have “never heard” of the new would be breezing to a third lieutenant governor, compared term after winning his first to 31% for Gregg. Holcomb’s two Senate races with more fav/unfavs stand at an anemic than 60% of the vote, he 17/14%, compared to 33/19% now finds himself in a true dog fight against Young, the for Gregg. former Marine and Tea Party-supported 9th CD congress- “He needs to fill in the blanks and tell what kind man. Young has already defeated two members of Con- of governor he will be before John Gregg does,” Ulm said. gress, upending former congressman in the “He’s largely undefined. He’s completely dependent on 2010 Republican primary before defeating U.S. Rep. Baron current environment. If he doesn’t put that out there, he’s Hill in the general that year. in trouble.” Bayh has the potential to be his crown jewel. Like Bayh, Ulm said that Gregg “has to break free Bayh’s fav/unfavs are good at 48/28%, compared to from the top of the ticket, show that he’s different, how 30/22% for Young. Those unfavorables are likely to in- he’ll be his own guy, be independent.” crease as Young takes Bayh to task for his deciding vote Several cross tabulation numbers jump out. on Obamacare and Bayh notes that the Republican called Holcomb is polling just 51% in the Indianapolis doughnut the 2009 auto rescue that saved more than 100,000 Indi- counties. That compared to 59% supporting Gov. Pence ana jobs “a waste.” Those are themes of two ads in heavy there in our April survey. A Republican gubernatorial can- rotation at this writing. didate should be in the 60th percentile. Many believed that when Bayh reentered politics Gregg is using TV ads to link Holcomb to the with $10 million in hand and a near 10-to-1 money advan- Religious Freedom Restoration Act that was a political tage, the Senate would be an easy pickup for the Demo- disaster for Pence, from which he never really recovered. crats. But Young is aggressive and has been able to attract Holcomb has straddled that issue, saying minutes after millions of dollars of national PAC money and this race he received the nomination in July that he would consider will likely eclipse the $50 million spent in the 2012 race any legislation that balanced religious freedom and civil between Sen. Dick Lugar, Treasurer and rights that might reach his desk. Like Pence, Holcomb current U.S. Sen. . faces a dilemma by alienating evangelical voters if he “I’ve seen other polls in the last week” on the commits to LGBT civil rights expansion, but not doing race, Ulm said, calling Bayh a “fixed point” so will cost him with female voters, moderates and Gary with Young closing. “Every survey is showing it closer and Johnson voters. closer.” The key question is whether Young can effectively Holcomb is polling 39% with men and 33% with tie Bayh to Hillary Clinton, or whether he can wiggle away. women, compared to Gregg’s 39% with men and 42% Another factor is that Bayh hasn’t been on an with women. In 2012, Pence started out with a 13% lead Indiana ballot for 12 years. He once feasted on Republican among female voters in September, but lost that category voters, but polls only 11% with both Republican men and by 5% in the election, part of that nosedive attributed to women. “We’re in a much more polarized environment,” Richard Mourdock’s controversial debate comments on Ulm said. “It’s an environment where political experience rape and abortion. Holcomb faces a similar gender gap. and awareness is equity that is worthless. That’s why we Like Bayh, Gregg’s big problem right now is Hill- Page 6 ary Clinton. He is down 7% from our April survey, which Evan Bayh is there now, while Holcomb is falling consider- did not include Libertarian Rex Bell, who had not received ably short of Trump. the nomination at that point and is now drawing 6%. The real unusual factor is that 20% in the presi- “This is a function of the national political environment,” dential race not aligning with Clinton or Trump. How that Ulm said. “As Hillary sinks, he sinks with her.” This race part of the electorate breaks could determine down-ballot could easily move into the tossup zone by our next poll races. in early October. We’ll be watching Holcomb’s money, the Could Clinton win Indiana? “I don’t believe so,” Gregg/Clinton element and how the first debate goes.HPI Ulm said, “even if she reclaims a significant percentage of Horse Race Status: Leans Gregg. Johnson voters. She’s not going to win in a state with such a low national right/wrong track number,” Ulm said of that Epilogue stat that showed just 27% seeing the on A fascinating element with this data set is that in a the right track, and 69% on the wrong track. “But given a normal environment, the ceiling for a down-ballot candi- perfect storm, she can get pretty close.” v date out-polling the top of the ticket is in the 7% range.

has become important because of the Trump phenom- A major shift for Young enon. This poll again shows how dramatically Trump sup- port declines as education increases. It is my opinion that By the pollsters, in part to test this, over-sampled those with FORT WAYNE – The major shift in the WTHR/ college degrees dramatically. Howey Politics Indiana poll taken this week from earlier I also know from past business polling I have been polls is crystal clear: Todd Young has closed the wide involved with that this variable has the greatest “lying” margin that Evan Bayh once had in the Senate race. The factor by those who take the polls: They exaggerate the Gregg-Holcomb race for governor remains extremely close. amount of education they have. It is a classic problem. It Donald Trump, as other polls have shown, has a large lead is also always been assumed that those with more educa- in Indiana. tion will vote in greater numbers, an assumption that has Two months ago, when increasingly been challenged. This poll included 28% with Evan Bayh first announced that no more than a high school diploma. Official stats show he was going to run for the that while Hoosiers have made gains in education, 44.7% Senate, the first poll had him up of residents have not attended any college. Furthermore, 54-33%. Since that time he has it was closer among those with some college (27% of poll, been under heavy criticism for 22% actual) than for those with college degrees (45% of his Washington D.C. residency the poll, 33.3% of the actual). (“Actual” is from the 2010 and lobbying ties in all forms of census data.) media. A Monmouth poll had In other words, since Donald Trump does Bayh’s margin down to 48-41%. best among the less educated, his 43-36-11 lead over Hill- The Howey Politics-WTHR poll ary Clinton in this poll may be understated. The Monmouth shows it has now fallen to 44- poll last month had Trump ahead by 47-36%. In other 40%. However, the underneath words, the Trump-Clinton race may be frozen at this point. numbers suggest more serious problems ahead for Bayh. 6% of the Presidential voters claim to be undecided. If This poll surveyed 600 Indiana voters. Trying to get they are still undecided in this race, it is my opinion that an appropriate mix to have an accurate poll and have even those are likely non-voters. somewhat meaningful breakouts is difficult to do. Among This becomes a critical assumption. Ten percent of the goals are reasonably accurate mixes based upon geog- those called were undecided in the race for governor, and raphy, age, party affiliation, race, sex, and education. 16% of the voters are undecided in the decision for gover- Furthermore, the balances such as race and nor. The way I used to break this out in analyzing my own sex can dramatically make regional numbers worthless. For polls, which when adjusted proved to be astoundingly ac- example, the breakout for the Fort Wayne metro area says curate in spite of the Democrats and my primary claiming that Gregg and Bayh will win our region, with Young doing otherwise, is to look at the hard numbers as well as the slightly better than Holcomb. I doubt either will win in percentages. When one also does this with the cross-tabs, northeast Indiana. usually multiple key variables become clarified. Having read many polls for my own campaigns, In this case there are several. One important vari- those of and , and many other can- able is that more Clinton voters are decided on the Senate didates it is my opinion that this poll has all the categories and gubernatorial races than Trump and Johnson vot- fairly distributed with one exception. The education variable Page 7 ers. This makes sense because Young and Holcomb are hinted at by the national polling that shows Clinton doing less well known to voters. But just because a point seems better when she is one-on-one with Trump. This is counter obvious, doesn’t always mean it is always true. This poll to Republican assumptions. establishes that the logic holds true in these races. 2. The right-direction-wrong direction polling, One would assume that this means that both especially for Indiana, has some small nuances that are in- Young and Holcomb have more to gain in the next two teresting. Holcomb gains among voters who think Indiana months than do Bayh and Gregg. While the raw numbers is doing well. Young does better than Holcomb among are way, way too small to make definitive conclusions those who think things are bad. The core question there based upon the breakout data, they do wave some major is: do some voters blame Bayh more than they do Gregg? caution flags for Republicans. 3. The surmised unfavorable (as in close to One can only speculate why (I have some “detesting”) ratings for Hillary among all those not solid theories but they can’t be proven by this data) but the Democrats is clearly overwhelming the unfavorability rat- numbers state that Bayh and Gregg both lead among the ings of Trump. least educated. This could be good news for them since As a final conclusion,when I went through the this poll under-sampled those voters. However, they both raw data breakouts, if I had to use this poll (which was a had much bigger leads among those with graduate de- “moment in time” poll) as the predictor of what is to come, grees, who were over-sampled in even greater numbers. I would put Senate race (forcing the undecideds) at Bayh In other words, it is a probable wash. 48.6%, Young 46%, and 5.4% for the Libertarian. The It does, however, illustrate where the battleground gubernatorial race would be separated by less than 1%. will be because across the board, more of the less educat- In other words, Republicans should be thrilled ed voters appear to be undecided on the other races and with these results given the well known Democrats run- make up a larger percentage of the undecided voters. ning against comparatively unknown Republicans. Young Here are some other comments from this Howey and Holcomb also appear to have more room to grow their Politics-WTHR poll: numbers. v 1. This poll dramatically shows that across the board that more libertarian votes are coming from Demo- Souder is a former Republican congressman from crats, not Republican voters. This has certainly been Indiana. Page 8

some 1,000 East Chicago residents who have been forced Pence goes nationwide out of their homes at the West Calumet Housing Complex, the site of a former Anaconda Lead Products smelting By BRIAN A. HOWEY plant. This was the scene where children were experienc- INDIANAPOLIS – Let me make one thing perfectly ing head and stomach aches and vomiting. The EPA origi- clear: Gov. Mike Pence is still being paid by Indiana’s nally said the site would be cleaned up at no cost to them, hard-working taxpayers even while on his excellent, vice but residents later saw it bulldozed after Mayor Anthony presidential adventure. But Mike Pence is no longer acting Coleman came to the conclusion the place couldn’t be like an Indiana governor. Since he was officially selected by cleaned up without further exposure to nearby residents. Donald Trump on July 16, he’s gone “This is a potential catastrophe that could be approach- national. ing the same level as Flint, ,” observed State Sen. He’s come back to Indiana to Lonnie Randolph. The Pence administration has been a ride his motorcycle with ABATE, he no-show. opened the , he’s Southeast Indiana carfentanil/heroin epi- had several cabinet meetings, cam- demic: and southeastern Indiana are now in paigned with Eric Holcomb in Co- the midst of a new, sinister chapter in a horrific heroin lumbus, opened a Trump campaign epidemic. An elephant tranquilizing drug carfentanil has office in Carmel and hosted Trump arrived, a new four-state research project by the drug fundraisers in Evansville and India- cartels. There were 78 reported overdoses in the Cincin- napolis. At none of these events was nati area in just two days, and during the same time span, he willing to field media questions. another 15 in Indiana counties. Like the Scott County HIV/ He hasn’t taken live questions from the media opioid epidemic of 2015, this is expected to ripple across since the vice presidential speculation was growing in early southern Indiana. Gov. Pence has not addressed this issue. July, with the exception of one interview with WTHR-TV’s I-69 construction meltdown in Bloomington: Kevin Rader where a seat on his jet cost thousands of On Saturday, IU and Ball State football fans will get to dollars. On the public policy front, it’s been June since he experience Indiana’s latest road construction snafu. The took questions. I-69 Section 5 interstate project has ground to a halt. A Pence didn’t meet with the press when he accept- “notice of non-performance” has been issued by the Indi- ed his second gubernatorial nomination in early June. Dur- ana Finance Authority after several subcontractors haven’t ing the Republican National Convention, Pence didn’t have received payment from Isolux Corsan. Bloomington Mayor time to stop by the Hoosier delegation’s hotel in John Hamilton said on Wednesday, “My first job as mayor to rub shoulders with the faithful. On the day after his is public safety. The seemingly ever-delayed nature of this acceptance speech, he spent about 20 construction and the danger it poses to minutes with the delegation at a country travelers are unacceptable.” Hello, Gov. club, and then he was gone. Pence? When a politician “goes nation- Lease of the state’s communications wide,” there’s a tendency for point of infrastructure: On Tuesday, the Pence departure. His Indiana stepping stone had administration announced a 25-year leas- served its purpose. Instead of dealing with ing of its statewide communication system roads and bridges or budgets, he’s now to -based Agile Networks. The state is talking about Hillary Clinton’s state department, military expected to make $260 million from the deal, which it says spending and translating to us where Trump actually is on will expand broadband services to rural areas. While these immigration and mass deportations (telling us that his new are worthy goals, this one popped up out of nowhere. Is it boss has been “completely consistent” on the topic). a good deal? No one knows. Contrast this with 2005, when Communicating with the governor has devolved Gov. announced his Major Moves program, into something akin to unsubscribing from an internet which leased the Indiana Toll Road and brought it $3.8 scam or a porn site. The remnants of the Pence reelection billion. But Daniels and key members of his administra- campaign won’t respond to phone calls, texts and emails. tion were on hand for the announcement, commencing a The governor’s Statehouse office refers reporters to the process of more than six months where it was extensively campaign. deliberated by the Indiana General Assembly, passing by Meanwhile, messy life goes on in the Great small margins. Gov. Pence announced this with a press re- . And there are an array of issues that the lease and has discussed none of it. Asked about the deal, governor should be discussing. Since Gov. Pence can’t find AT&T President Bill Soards told me he had “no clue” on the the 30 to 45 minutes to answer questions, let’s do it in this impact of the program. conspicuous fashion, here in a public forum. Governing a state is a tough endeavor. It requires Governor, how would you respond to the . . . .: hands-on work and communication skills, even when East Chicago lead poisoning crisis: There are you’re running for vice president. v Page 9

national ticket, he has emerged as a force of moderation, An unprecedented and attempting to burnish Donald Trump as an epic deal maker who will transform Washington while he cleans up the many rhetorical messes left by the Manhattan billionaire. tumultuous cycle Indiana establishment Republicans were initially cool to By BRIAN A. HOWEY Trump, with the Republican National Committee delegate CRAWFORDSVILLE, Ind. – In an unprecedented dominated by Ted Cruz and John Kasich supporters. But and tumultuous election cycle in the midst of their bi- with Pence’s elevation, Hoosier Republicans are now firmly centennial celebration, Hoosier voters have witnessed a stationed in the Trump camp. lieutenant governor resignation, a presidential candidate Two new national polls reveal a volatile race, with clinch a nomination with the embrace of Bobby Knight, Trump pulling ahead of Clinton 45-43% in a new CNN/ORC a vice presidential nominee, a Democratic U.S. Senate survey, with Libertarian Gary Johnson at 7%. In a parallel nominee swap out, and 22 obscure committee members NBC/Survey Monkey Tracking Poll, Clinton maintained a choosing a new Republican gubernatorial ticket that largely 41-37% lead over Trump with Johnson at 12%. While the played out in Ohio. Heading into a nine-week homestretch, national polls have tightened, Clinton still leads in six out President Reagan might have coined the apt phrase: “You of seven battleground states in Real Clear Politics polling ain’t seen nuthin’ yet.” averages and she appears to have an extensive get-out- Indiana voters will the-vote apparatus in swing states, while Trump has Twit- also be selecting a new attorney ter. general, two new members of Bayh is also navigating unprecedented territory. Congress and make a decision on Sitting on close to $10 million for more than half a decade whether controversial Education after he bolted the 2010 Senate race, Bayh reemerged in Supt. Glenda Ritz serves a second early July with powerful Senate Democrats and Hillary Clin- term. ton forcing nominee Baron Hill from the race, and in six It all comes in a earthquake landscape that saw weeks has posted $3.5 million worth of TV ads that have Lt. Gov. Sue Ellspermann resign in March to take the helm run more than 8,000 times statewide. Young was seen as of troubled Ivy Tech, Donald Trump clinch the Republican a commanding favorite against Hill, but over night found presidential nomination with the May 3 primary, Gov. Mike himself trailing in internal partisan polls as well as in the Pence exit to join the Trump ticket, and a new Holcomb/ money race. ticket that had about 100 days to find mil- Following the 2012 Senate race that saw $50 mil- lions of dollars denied by the Pence reelection campaign. lion spent by or on behalf of Sen. Dick Lugar, Republican Republicans have controlled the governor’s office for three nominee Richard Mourdock and Democrat Joe Donnelly, consecutive terms, following a four-term the Bayh-Young race could easily eclipse that record and run by the Democrats. Gregg has been a could determine control of the upper cham- much more focused candidate, and funded ber. this campaign as he prepared for what All of this political turmoil comes in a everyone believed would be a rematch he state that has been buffeted by dual heroin could win against the ideologically polar- and methamphetamine outbreaks, and AIDS izing Pence. epidemic, and an economic recovery that Holcomb has raised $3.6 million in many perceive as favoring Wall Street over large donations, with $2.3 million coming Main Street. In an election cycle filled with from the Republican Governors Association twists and turns, the next nine weeks promise that includes $850,000 in in-kind TV ads. a script few would have found plausible just The Washington, D.C.-based months ago, with the final conclusion a rivet- organization has contributed $2.3 million ing mystery. to Holcomb, including nearly $844,000 in in-kind television advertising and polling. Congress “About $3.6 million has come from Pence or the RGA, which means he has really GOP sources cite close only raised about $500,000,” Jeff Harris, a 2nd, 9th CD polling spokesman for Gregg’s campaign told the Republicans say the Donald Trump down IndyStar. ballot drag could even extend to state legis- The Democratic Governors As- lative races (Politico). One closely watched sociation has put $800,000 into the Gregg state Senate race is taking place in the campaign, including $300,000 earlier this Columbia, South Carolina, suburbs, where month. an internal Republican survey conducted last With Pence’s ascension to the Page 10 month found the GOP candidate, Susan Brill, narrowly cal oxygen sucked up by heated races for president, U.S. trailing her Democratic rival. Trump may be taking a toll: Senate and governor, Arredondo said he also finds himself The survey also tested the presidential race in the Senate educating voters. “Most people think we’re the lawyer for district and found the GOP nominee losing by 22 points. the governor,” he said. “That’s not it at all.” “My biggest concern is for otherwise relatively safe, though Defining the job is enough of a concern that both competitive, Republicans in suburban districts,” said Chris candidates, each of whom brings deep legal experience to Wilson, a Republican pollster who advises a number of the race, have posted explanations of what the attorney candidates in conservative areas. “They’re going to face general does on their campaign websites. The attorney the perfect storm of well-educated Republican and conser- general is, indeed, the state’s chief legal officer who ad- vative independent voters who are turned off by Trump, vises agencies, defends laws challenged in court and pros- active courting of those voters by Clinton to make it OK ecutes on behalf of the state. The person also oversees a to vote Democrat or just to stay home, and a total lack of team of 160 lawyers involved in duties related to consumer national data or assistance in identifying and turning those protection, from medical licensing to policing telemarket- voters out.” ers. As current Attorney General Greg Zoeller explains, the In some states, such as Indiana, Republicans job is to help “protect the rights, freedoms and safety” of believe a lack of enthusiasm among their voters could Hoosiers. Now in his second term, Zoeller has opted not to prove costly. Party operatives have polled in two conserva- seek reelection tive, GOP-held congressional districts in the state — one Arredondo and Hill have been working to make held by Rep. and the other by Rep. Todd their cases to the voters since being selected by their Young — and found both races are surprisingly close. One respective party’s delegates this spring. And each has the prominent Republican pollster said the party was grappling potential to make state history. Hill, if elected, would be with how to generate excitement from a GOP base that’s the first black Republican in the office and only the third far less passionate about Trump than it was about Mitt African-American in the job. He is a four-term prosecutor Romney in 2012. from Elkhart County. Arredondo, who spent 34 years as The GOP’s prospects are a trial judge in Lake County worse in Indiana’s Senate race, before retiring in 2010, would where polling has shown Todd be the first Latino to be state Young trailing. In July, former attorney general. Democratic Sen. Evan Bayh, a Neither claim those identi- mainstay of the state’s political ties as reason to vote for scene, announced he was waging them. But their experience a comeback bid — a coup for his and biographies, they say, do party. inform their views. Hill, the father of five, was raised in Elkhart at a time Hill, Arredondo when segregation was slowly slipping away. When his fa- seek fame ther tried to build a home in the then-white part of town, By MAUREEN HAYDEN neighbors told him he wasn’t CNHI Statehouse Bureau welcome and offered him a INDIANAPOLIS – The payoff to leave. Their fam- men running for attorney general ily home was later bombed. face a tough challenge in a politi- For Hill, a remarkable part of cal season dominated by higher- the story was that his father profile races. Republican Curtis Hill would become deeply in- and Democrat Lorenzo Arredondo volved in efforts to repair the spend much of their time explain- city’s damaged race relations. ing the job and trying to inspire He became active in both the people to care. “It feels a little like NAACP and the local Jaycees. ‘Horton Hears a Who,’” joked Hill, “With a father like that, I referring to the Dr. Seuss book couldn’t go wrong,” he said. about an elephant who discovers As a prosecutor, he’s built a tiny, overlooked planet. “It’s like a reputation as tough on we’re shouting, ‘We are here. We crimes involving drugs and are here. We are here.’” violence. In 2010, he pur- With most of the politi- sued murder charges against Page 11 four teenagers whose friend was killed He later went to law school in a program during a botched burglary. The five had aimed at attracting minorities to the legal pro- broken into an Elkhart home to steal fession. After work as a deputy prosecutor and money for marijuana. The homeowner in private practice, he was elected judge in his fatally shot one teenager. The other hometown of East Chicago. four were convicted of murder and As a judge, Arredondo helped usher in sentenced to spend in prison. changes to the Lake County court system. The later Those included more access to translators for overturned the convictions, saying the non-English speaking litigants, and the creation teens’ actions didn’t cause their friend’s of a “children’s room” to reduce stress for kids death. whose parents were in court. Hill said he is unapologetic If elected, Arrendondo said he’ll to con- for his efforts to combat crime in his tinue to be a role model for the Latino commu- community. But, as attorney general, nity, but he will also work to increase access for he said a priority will be advocacy for every Hoosier to the attorney general’s role as public and private programs that aim consumer protector. to strengthen families and intervene Among his ideas is sending staff law- with troubled teens before they turn to crime. “We can’t yers to meet with the elderly and other potential fraud prosecute our way out the problems of crime,” he said. victims around the state. “The attorney general is really For Arredondo, his tenure on the bench as the lon- the people’s lawyer,” he said. “One of the most important gest serving Latino judge in the country informs his views. things we can do is to bring the attorney general’s office to He grew up the 10th child of an immigrant father who the people.” v went to work in the steel mills of northwest Indiana. His father’s death, when Arredondo was 14, convinced him to Maureen Hayden covers the Indiana Statehouse seek another line of work. He labored in a steel mill for a for CNHI’s newspapers and websites. Reach her at year after high school to pay for college, where he earned [email protected]. a teaching degree. Page 12

tion not high in popularity. Walorski, Coleman Walorski, like any incumbent who is better known, better funded and regarded as with the better chance to win, would just as soon avoid debates. When she finally debate on debates agrees to something – and she surely will agree to at least By JACK COLWELL one event – it’s not likely to be any televised debate. May- SOUTH BEND – The spring edition of debates over be separate interviews on television that involve no real debates is history, distinguished by deliberations over such face-to-face debating. Politically, Walorski now has noth- issues as the size of Donald Trump’s hands, whether to ing to gain by debating. If polls suddenly showed she had discuss “your damn emails” and which candidates would fallen behind, then she would want to debate, counting on have to sit at the children’s greater familiarity with issues as a member of Congress. table rather than be in the The Coleman campaign criticizes Walorski’s big event. Now come debates reluctance to debate, saying district voters “deserve an over debates, fall edition. opportunity to hear how both candidates” discuss vital is- Locally, there’s the ques- sues. The Walorski campaign responds that she already is tion of whether Congress- going around the district discussing issues. And she has a woman Jackie Walorski will lot more funding to send out her message in TV ads. consent to debate her Demo- With the presidential debates, we don’t know cratic opponent, Lynn Cole- what to expect. Will Trump insist on his own rules and man, somewhere, anywhere, complain about formats, panelists, moderators and days in a televised format or any of the events, threatening not to appear if he doesn’t get format resembling a debate. his way? If he doesn’t do well in the first debate, will he Nationally, there’s specu- refuse to participate in additional “rigged” events? But lation over whether Trump re- maybe he will do quite well. He’s a proven TV performer. ally will appear at all three of How will Clinton do? Will viewers find her dull if the scheduled presidential debates. He already has com- she sticks to issues or find her foolish if she tries to out- plained about the timing. And he’s sure to raise questions Trump Trump? And which Trump will appear? Insulting about whether the events are “rigged.” The vice presiden- Donald of spring debates? A new Donald seeking to seem tial nominees will debate once, even though most of the presidential? nation isn’t paying attention to either of them. Debates don’t often decide elections. After all, one There will be three statewide debates in Indiana of the most devastating lines was when Dan Quayle was involving the Democratic, Republican and Libertarian nomi- put down with the jab that “you’re no Jack Kennedy.” No. nees for governor. In what looks like a close race between But he was elected vice president. v Republican Eric Holcomb and Democrat John Gregg, a re- ally good performance or terrible gaffe could be important. Colwell has covered Indiana politics over five de- Speaking of a terrible gaffe, will there be one in cades for the South Bend Tribune. the two expected televised debates featuring the U.S. Sen- ate contenders, Democrat Evan Bayh and Republican Todd Young? You know, a fatal stumble like the way Re- publican Richard Mourdock destroyed his chances in the last Senate debate with Joe Donnelly? You never know, but both Bayh and Young are candi- dates far superior to the “unusual” Mourdock. In the 2nd Congressional District race, Coleman is pushing for debates and already accept- ing proposals by debate sponsors. Walorski, fol- lowing her pattern of reluctance to debate, except in her first congressional race in which she was an underdog challenger, has put off deciding on any debate. No surprise on either side. Coleman, now the underdog challenger striving to catch up to the better known incumbent in a Republican-flavored district, would welcome debating Walorski as often as possible and with live television. It would give him a better chance to get known throughout the sprawling 10-county district and to hit at Walorski’s role in Congress, an institu- Page 13

can repeatedly claim that she never mishandled classified Truth becomes pravda information in her private server when she was secretary of state, despite voluminous evidence to the contrary. Indiana Gov. Mike Pence can say on Meet the Press that in ‘16 presidential race Trump has been “completely consistent” on immigration By BRIAN A. HOWEY even as the nominee roamed through an array of stances, INDIANAPOLIS – As someone who wrote and ed- leaving “Point A” and eventually ending up at “Point A.” ited for the Elkhart Truth for 11 years, I can recall a time Politifact is a Pulitzer Prize-winning orga- when there was a premium on accuracy. Who wanted to nization that has been fact checking since 2007, taking be reporting for The Truth and be called out as a liar? And on more than 950 assertions by major party presidential it was a quite different experience working for The Truth in nominees. The emerging verdict of the 2016 election is the great American Midwest, one of Landgrebeian proportions. “We dug into that data as opposed to Pravda in the to compare the major party nominees for the last three old Soviet Union, where the election cycles – 2016, 2012 and 2008,” the organization concept of “truth” was com- reported. “The following analysis looked at statements pletely different. made only during the campaign (for example, excluding Today, we are in the midst fact-checks from the time Hillary Clinton was serving as of the first full-fledged “post- secretary of state or while President Barack Obama wasn’t truth politics” modern national election. When it comes to campaigning for office). So what does the data show? That presidential politics, there seems to be more Moscow than 2008 was a much more honest election than we’re seeing Elkhart. “Post-truth politics” is a term coined by blogger in 2016. Obama in 2008 earned more True ratings than David Roberts way back in 2010 for Grist. But now it is Obama in 2012, and so did John McCain in 2008. Hillary a defining factor in a presidential race playing out in 140 Clinton in 2016 is even farther behind. And Donald Trump character bits on Twitter and running streams of thought has been the most inaccurate of them all.” on Facebook. Post-truth politics is where issues and de- A frequent assertion by Trumpets is that Clinton bates are framed by appeals to emotion, dislodged from is a “liar.” But Clinton rates over 50% of statements her fact, and then recycled into talking points. Rebuttals are statements as “true” or “mostly true” and if you factor in irrelevant. her “half true” statements, she is north of 70%. About In 1974, a 15% of her statements are Republican congress- either untrue or “pants on fire” man from Indiana, Earl false. Landgrebe of Northern As for Trump, 37% of his Indiana’s old 2nd CD, statements are false, 16.8% are made mocking na- “pants on fire” lies, 16% are tional headlines when rated “mostly false” and 14% as President Nixon’s are “half true.” That leaves just impeachment loomed, 14% of Trump statements as he blurted in frustra- “true” or “mostly true.” Or as tion, “Don’t confuse me Politifact puts it, “Trump’s inac- with the facts.” The day curate statements dwarf those before Nixon resigned in of Clinton. He’s been four times disgrace, Landgrebe said, more likely to receive a False or “I’m going to stick with Pants on Fire rating.” my president even if he and I have to be taken out of this Trump liked to refer to U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz as building and shot.” “Lyin’ Ted” during the GOP primary battles, but the In 2016, the facts, when it comes to Republican Republican had a “true” or “mostly true” rating in the 27% nominee Donald Trump and Democrat nominee Hillary range, and was at 37% or so when you included the “half Clinton, are pesky things that get in the way of a narra- true” designation. The most truthful Republican this cycle tive that is increasingly little more than propaganda, just was Jeb Bush, who was at the 40% threshold for “true” like the Soviets used to do it. Many American voters don’t or “mostly true” and at 70% when Politifact included “half prescribe to the way President Harry Truman did things, at true” statements. one time saying, “I never did give them hell. I just told the So American truth has devolved into Soviet style truth, and they thought it was hell.” pravda, with President Truman rendering an observation So Donald Trump can claim that hundreds if not we may lament in the future: “Fame is a vapor, popularity thousands of Muslims in New Jersey cheered the col- is an accident, riches take wings, those who cheer today lapse of the World Trade Center towers on Sept. 11, 2001, may curse tomorrow and only one thing endures – charac- when no audio or video evidence exists. Hillary Clinton ter.” v Page 14

Firstly, we should ask the simple question: Why Cut the tax cut debate, is it we want to favor capital investment over workers? Workers face much higher taxes and regulatory costs than does capital, both at the state and federal level. By further spend money wisely reducing the relative cost of capital investment, we are un- By MICHAEL HICKS wittingly facilitating the substitution of more machines for MUNCIE – Indiana’s business personal property fewer workers. The right mix of workers and equipment tax remains a hot topic across much of the state. Tax is inherently the decision of a business owner. These are abatements, TIF and an outright repeal are getting more things we should let markets, not city councils figure out. of the attention they deserve. Second, the problem with taxes isn’t how much There is reason for optimism in this is collected, but rather how they are spent. Fort Wayne debate; however, the most critical is a classic example. For nearly half a century the city ef- issues are persistently ignored. fectively ignored its deepest challenges of urban blight and In Fort Wayne, the city council will poor schools. The economy suffered, and people and busi- vote on a proposal to eliminate the nesses moved to places with better schools, cleaner cities, business personal property tax. The and paradoxically in most every case, higher taxes. A little proponents of this make two argu- more than a decade ago that changed. The city began to ments. First, a lower tax will make focus on making itself a better place to live. As a result, the region more enticing to busi- the greater Fort Wayne area is the only part of Indiana ness investment. Second, that the outside of Indianapolis that is forecast to grow over the city approves tax abatements and next generation. TIFs so often that new businesses receive huge windfalls The lesson here is pretty clear. Instead of trying while existing businesses bear higher taxes, or reduced to second guess the optimal mix of capital investment services, because of the TIF or abatement. and labor for a company, or slashing already low taxes for Both of these arguments have the benefit of being new business at the expense of all the other taxpayers, factually true; however, both entirely miss the real issues city councils ought to focus on the basics of making a city about tax policy and economic development. Let me ex- attractive to people. That’s pretty much what Hoosier cities plain. did a century ago when they were the successful wonder There’s no way around it, business taxes in Indi- of the world. v ana are modest. Overall, Indiana ranks in the top 10 states on any national ranking of taxes and has done so for a Michael J. Hicks, PhD, is the director of the Cen- number of years. Still, recent changes make the situation ter for Business and Economic Research and the more favorable for businesses. Anyone who thinks Indi- George and Frances Ball distinguished professor of ana’s state or local tax rates act as a meaningful impedi- economics in the Miller College of Business at Ball ment to business location or expansion is simply mistaken. State University. It is also true that the repeal of the business personal property tax, along with the repeal of every TIF and every tax abatement, favors one business at the expense of everyone else. Ironically, this truth was admitted by the oppo- nents of the Fort Wayne proposal, when they reviewed the fiscal impact of the tax elimination. To be clear, eliminat- ing the business personal property tax has the same effect on everyone else as does granting all new businesses an abatement. It either raises everyone else’s tax rates, or reduces the available public services, or both. The debate over the impact of abatements and TIF is long overdue, but we can’t afford to neglect the more fundamental issues involved. Again there are two issues that matter deeply to this debate that are routinely ig- nored. Page 15

(as well as the District of Columbia). Sabato moves Indiana In 1988, while Vermont was narrowly support- ing Republican George H.W. Bush for president, West Vir- ginia was one of the handful of states that actually backed gov race to tossup Democrat Michael Dukakis. From the dawn of the New By LARRY SABATO, KYLE KONDIK Deal through ’s presidency, West Virginia was and GEOFFREY SKELLEY one of the most reliably Democratic states in the country, CHARLOTTESVILLE, Va. – They aren’t getting voting Republican only in big GOP national blowouts like much national attention because of the races for the presi- 1956, 1972, and 1984 (the easy reelection years of Dwight dency and Congress, but this year’s gubernatorial contests Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, and , respec- seem to be just as confounding as the ones from 2014, tively). But by 2012, West Virginia was Mitt Romney’s fifth- and they could produce some equally head-scratching best state, and the state seems poised to vote very heavily results. for Donald Trump in the fall. Heading into Election Day Despite these changes, both 2014, polls in 11 of the 36 contested states still seem quite open to support- races showed a margin between the ing their ancestral party, as opposed candidates of less than five per- to the party they overwhelmingly back centage points, according to the now, in their local gubernatorial race. HuffPost Pollster averages. These West Virginia hasn’t elected a close races produced some results Republican governor since 1996. In that cut against the partisan grain 2012, term-limited incumbent Earl Ray in many states: In a Republican- Tomblin ran 15 points ahead of Obama, leaning year, states that typically winning by five points even as Obama vote very Democratic at the federal was losing the state in a landslide. That level like Illinois, Maryland, and same year, Sen. Joe Manchin (D), a Massachusetts elected Republican former governor, ran 25 points ahead governors, and deep-red Alaska of Obama. voted out a Republican incum- While Vermont does have a bent in favor of an independent, Democratic governor, Peter Shumlin is Bill Walker, who had a Democratic not running for reelection to a fourth, running mate and was the de facto two-year term, the state only very nar- Democratic candidate. rowly reelected the unpopular Shumlin Most of the gubernatorial elections are held in the in 2014: Thanks to a quirky law, the Democratic-controlled midterm year (and some others in odd-numbered years, state legislature actually had to reelect Shumlin because like next year’s New Jersey and Virginia contests), but we the incumbent finished shy of an actual majority (despite have a dozen races this year, including a special election in winning a narrow plurality). And former Gov. Jim Douglas Oregon. Of those 12 races, at least six appear to be very (R) won four, two-year terms from 2002-2008. In his final close: Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, election, Douglas got 53%, easily beating an independent Vermont, and West Virginia. And another, Montana, is a and a Democrat, and he ran 23 points ahead of Republican potential dark horse. Map 1 shows our updated ratings John McCain. and Table 1 presents each ratings change we’re making In West Virginia, Republicans are hoping to this week. complete their recent transformation of state government. In fact, Vermont and West Virginia help illustrate They won control of the state House and Senate for the how, even in a presidential year, a significant number of first time since before the in 2014, and voters appear poised to split their tickets, at least between they are hoping to take complete control by electing state their federal vote and their state-level vote. They are also Senate President Bill Cole (R) to the governorship. Stand- two states that help show the great changes that have ing in their way is Jim Justice, the state’s only billionaire taken place in American politics over the last few decades. and a nominal Democrat. Justice, a coal magnate, said he Crazy as it may sound to younger readers, Ver- won’t support Hillary Clinton for president and he’s run- mont was once one of the most reliably Republican presi- ning largely as a friendly outsider. When flooding devas- dential states in the Union. From 1856 – the first election tated West Virginia earlier this summer, Justice opened up to feature a Republican and a Democratic candidate, thus The Greenbrier resort, which he owns, to victims. Posi- kicking off our durable two-party system – through 1988, tive responses to natural disasters can be important for the home of independent socialist Sen. Bernie Sanders incumbent governors in their reelection bids: Justice isn’t voted Democratic for president exactly one time, in Lyndon an incumbent, but the glowing publicity for his action after Johnson’s 1964 blowout. By 2012, Vermont was Barack the flood might be helping him. Obama’s second-best state, finishing only behind Hawaii Polling has consistently shown Justice leading, Page 16 and even Republicans seem to concede that he’s ahead, approve of the law, 74% say they’re backing McCrory, just not by the double-digit margins some polls indicate. while Cooper gets the support of 72% of those who disap- Meanwhile, some Republicans have been underwhelmed prove of HB2. Unusually for a challenger, Cooper has also by Cole’s campaign, although they are hopeful that Trump outraised the incumbent McCrory, holding a $12.7 million will carry Cole over the finish line, and they have a lot of to $8.7 million edge as of the end of the second quarter ammunition to use against Justice, including his history of (June 30). In light of these developments in North Caro- late payments (or non-payment) of taxes. lina, we’re shifting its rating from Toss-up to Leans Demo- While Republicans still have a very good chance cratic. to recover here, we’re forced to push this race from Leans Meanwhile, Indiana features a gubernatorial Republican to Toss-up, and Justice probably is better than contest that once had an incumbent but now is an open- 50-50 to win. Nevertheless, recent history in that part of seat race. When Gov. Mike Pence (R) exited stage right the country makes us cautious about overrating Justice’s to become Trump’s vice presidential nominee, it left the edge. competitive Hoosier State tilt in flux. Multiple Republicans We now see Vermont as a Toss-up, instead of cast their hats into the ring to replace Pence on the ballot, Leans Democratic. In a mirror opposite of West Virginia, but at the end of the day the state party central committee we can see a Republican running far ahead of his party’s selected Lt. Gov. Eric Holcomb to become the GOP’s new presidential candidate here. Lt. Gov. Phil Scott (R) is gubernatorial standard bearer. Holcomb has taken a curi- personally popular and is probably leading at the mo- ous path to reach this point. A former adviser to popular ment thanks to his proven electoral track record; he won ex-Gov. Mitch Daniels (R), Holcomb initially sought the by seven points in his initial election in 2010 and by large Republican nomination for the state’s open 2016 Senate margins in 2012 and 2014. The Republican Governors contest. But it soon became clear that he was unlikely to Association has been running positive ads on his behalf, beat Reps. Todd Young or for the Sen- while Democrats believe they can attack Scott for being ate nod (Young went on to win). But another opportunity out of step with a liberal electorate on climate change and arose for Holcomb. In February, he exited the Senate race, social issues. Like Justice in West Virginia, Scott is better- and a month later he took over the lieutenant governor- known than his opponent, former Transportation Secre- ship following Lt. Gov. Sue Ellspermann’s (R) resignation. tary Sue Minter (D). But like Cole in West Virginia, Minter Then just about three-and-a-half months later, Holcomb has the better party label for her state. If Minter ends up was picked to replace Pence as the party’s gubernatorial winning, she’ll be the first Democratic governor to directly nominee. Suffice to say, 2016 has been a wild ride for him. succeed another Democrat in the history of the state. But now Holcomb faces a tough fight with former Most of this year’s competitive gubernatorial races state Speaker of the House John Gregg (D), who narrowly are open seats. Vermont and West Virginia do not feature lost to Pence in 2012. The only public poll so far found an incumbent. Neither do Indiana, Missouri, and New the two in a neck-and-neck race. There’s a lot of uncer- Hampshire. North Carolina does feature an incumbent, but tainty surrounding this race, even more than there was he’ll test the power of incumbency in gubernatorial races. previously when it was a Pence-Gregg rematch. Gregg is Incumbent governors, like most incumbents, already trying to tie Holcomb to the controversy surround- are far more likely to win than lose. In presidential cycles ing aspects of Pence’s tenure in Indianapolis. Plus, Gregg in the post-World War II era, about four out of five guber- starts with a name-identification and fundraising edge, in natorial incumbents have won reelection in November. But part because of complications regarding the transfer of going back to 1992, 34 of 37 have won general election money from Pence’s campaign account to Holcomb’s. But contests (92%) in presidential years. This would seem to the new GOP nominee could conceivably benefit from his augur well for Gov. Pat McCrory (R) of North Carolina, who relative anonymity as a Republican at the top of the ticket is locked in a tight reelection battle with state Attorney in a red state that is likely to back Trump-Pence, and the General Roy Cooper (D). But as things stand, Cooper leads Republican Governors Association is almost certain to use in both major polling averages by about four points. Not its vast resources to help Holcomb level the financial play- only that, but both aggregators find the Democrat run- ing field. (Republicans are confident Holcomb will have all ning ahead of his presidential standard bearer by a couple the money he needs.) of points. While the gubernatorial race is certainly close, It’s also worth considering that it may be hard for because Cooper may be in a stronger position than Clinton two down-ticket Democrats to win while Trump has the suggests that a Democratic pickup could be on the cards edge at the top, and as things stand the Senate race in in the Tar Heel State. McCrory has almost certainly been Indiana is more likely to go Democratic than the guberna- damaged by his decision to sign the controversial HB2 torial contest. But all in all, the Gregg-Holcomb race seems into law, which overturned anti-discrimination protections uncertain and too close to favor one side at this point, so for LGBT rights, most notably a Charlotte ordinance ad- we’re moving it from Leans Republican to Toss-up. v dressing transgender access to public restrooms. Tellingly, Monmouth University’s recent survey pegged approval/ disapproval for HB2 at a woeful 36%/55%. Of those who Page 17

lion to $19.5 trillion under President Obama. It previously on the doubled under President George W. Bush. These numbers, as ugly as they are, belie the true depths of the debt problem. It may seem quite manage- eve of U.S. bankruptcy able for the United States to live with a $19 trillion debt By CRAIG DUNN when 10-year treasury notes yield 1.55% and 30-year KOKOMO – I hereby dedicate this column to for- treasury bonds yield 2.24%. In effect, we are almost mer Indiana 2nd District U.S. Rep. Earl Landgrebe. Con- financing our entire national debt with negative interest gressman Landgrebe immortalized the comment, “Don’t rates, when you factor in inflation. However, for those of confuse me with the facts” during the Watergate hearings you who weren’t alive or who weren’t awake during the in 1974. His eloquent and timely use of this statement has late 1970s and early 1980s, let me take you for a short been subliminally picked up and adopted by both major ride down memory lane. political parties as they go on In 1982, when I began my career as a financial their merry way to the bank- consultant, treasury rates averaged 14.5%! Let me state rupting of our nation. that again, 14.5! Shorter term treasury rates skyrocketed Of course, I could have even higher. No one in government anticipated that inter- dedicated this column just as est rates would explode to those levels, the same lack of easily to one of the great phi- foresight that missed the movement of current rates to losophers of my youth, Alfred E. their historically low levels. Neuman. His monthly mantra, Picture a federal government that has nearly $20 “What Me Worry?” closely trillion in debt, that sees Congress fighting bitter budget reflects the fiscal discipline so battles over a billion here or a billion there, dealing with ably practiced by our Congress the effects of increasing interest rates in the future. Here’s and presidents for at least the a little mathematical factoid to help you understand the last 50 years. potential problem: For every rise of 1% in interest rates, Our United States govern- the cost of interest payments on our national debt rises ment is totally devoid of a single scintilla of synergy. We $200 billion per year. How will the United States pay for elect intelligent representatives and senators, put them that increase in interest? By cutting spending? By increas- in the same building and crank out more toxic waste than ing taxes? Come on and get real. Uncle Sam will just go you’d find in the Love Canal. The root cause of this legisla- back to the well and print up another $200 billion in paper tive morass is the giant sausage-making machine that we currency and let the consequences fall to the economy and fondly refer to as democracy. The sum of our legislative the American people. parts just doesn’t add up to a positive number. We are now less than 60 days to Election Day Please don’t get me wrong, I strongly believe that and neither major party candidate for president is discuss- we have some brilliant, intensely dedicated public servants ing the looming debt crisis. In fact, both Hillary Clinton and representing us in Washington, D.C. They know the issues Donald Trump lean toward increasing our budget deficits in perfectly well and could just as easily write this column. a Keynesian scheme to stimulate the moribund economy. Even Democrat elected officials know a few simple truths They point to increased economic growth as providing and will admit to them when you get them away from the new tax revenues that will help close the burgeon- the bright lights of the television news crews. In fact, ing budget deficit. Good luck with that! Remember the just about anyone with a brain larger than an amoeba’s $800 billion Obama stimulus? Cue Tennessee Ernie Ford, knows the mathematical fact that the United States, and “800 billion and what did you get? Another year older and the world for that matter, is swimming in a sea of debt deeper in debt!” that will destroy all that we hold dear, if nothing is done to I would like to see an honest discussion of our change the trajectory of its growth. debt problem take center stage during this election sea- As we quickly approach the end of another fis- son. The first presidential debate should begin with these cal year for the United States, it might be enlightening to questions in this order: take a quick look at the budgetary highlights. Do you agree that the growth of our national debt We are now looking at a national debt of $19.51 will eventually destroy our economy? If not, why not? trillion. Even with record federal tax collections over the At what level of debt will our country go beyond past 11 months, our 2016 fiscal year deficit is currently the tipping point? What specific plans do you have to de- $580 billion and growing. According to The Kiplinger Let- press the trajectory of the growth of the national debt? ter, the federal budget deficit will amount to 3.2% of GDP Do you plan on spending increases of any kind for 2016, up from 2.5% last year. The total of publicly held during your administration? Do you plan on increasing or debt as a percentage of GDP is at 76.6% this year and will decreasing taxes during your administration? grow unabated to at least 86% over the next 10 years. What will you tell your grandchildren about why The national debt has grown from approximately $10 tril- their future has been destroyed by the deficit spending Page 18 done by your generation? on our grandchildren’s credit card cannot go on forever. A I’m no political fool. I know that these questions mighty day of reckoning will arrive sooner than we might won’t be asked and if they were, they wouldn’t be an- expect. The choice is ours about whether we will proac- swered. And yet, only a focused honest discussion of this tively work on the problem or whether we will be forced to issue will ever lead to any meaningful solution. And therein reactively address the issue. What’s your bet? lies the rub. It is my opinion that no one really wants to We’ll see finger-pointing, name-calling and wild have an honest discussion on our debt problems. accusations thrown around during the presidential de- Everyone knows that the only way to deal with bates. We’ll see some entertaining political mud-wrestling debt is either to increase your income or cut your ex- to be sure, but I don’t expect to see any serious discussion penses. In governmental terms, increasing income means about our debt. It’s like telling your spouse that you are increasing taxes, and cutting expenses means spending going to cut up the family credit card right as you sit down less on federal programs. Both options send shivers up for Thanksgiving dinner. Everyone gets a case of indiges- the spines of politicos of all persuasions. Discussing the tion. v solution to our budget deficits is political suicide, plain and simple. Dunn is chairman of the Howard County Republican You know and I know that this spending spree Party.

to cut the budget and has been quite successful. But that The divorce of hasn’t satisfied Ryfa and the other councilmen.Thanks to a law approved by the 2013 Legislature, Griffith residents will vote on a referendum Dec. 20 on whether to pull out Griffith and Gary of Calumet Township and join either St. John, North or By RICH JAMES Ross township. The three adjoin Griffith. MERRILLVILLE – It is becoming increasingly clear Although Ryfa contends “the township does noth- that Griffith doesn’t want anything to do with Gary. Even ing for us,” Robinson disagrees. Robinson said her of- though the two Lake County municipalities abut each oth- fice provides “tens of thousands of dollars” in assistance er, Griffith seemingly wants to build to Griffith residents. She said she will enlist those who one of those walls Donald Trump received help to assist her in fighting the referendum. In wants to erect along the Mexican fact, Robinson is vowing a fight to the finish, including border. the possibility of going to court to have the law to allow First it was Planned Parenthood. Griffith to secede declared unconstitutional. When the agency was about to lose Since people often vote their pocketbooks, its facility in Gary, it located property chances are the referendum to allow Griffith to leave in Griffith for its new headquarters. Calumet Township will be successful. Wouldn’t it make But Griffith Councilman Rick Ryfa led more sense for the state to take over payment of public the charge and blocked Planned Par- assistance? It seems immensely unfair to put the financial enthood from moving into his town. burden on the backs of township residents because the And then Ryfa and the rest of the residents of the township require a substantial amount of town council, which is controlled by Republicans, launched assistance. a move to have Griffith pull out of Calumet Township. Gary didn’t most of its problems. The blame The Griffith officials said they were tired of paying should go to the loss of steel jobs, white flight and the for public assistance to help the poor exodus of money from the city. people in Gary. Calumet Township is Griffith should have focused its made up of Gary, Griffith and unin- energies in getting the state to corporated Calumet Township. With take over responsibility for pub- 39 percent of Gary residents below lic assistance, just as it did with the poverty line, most of the township welfare a few years back. v assistance money is going to Gary. Griffith residents at one point were Rich James has been writ- paying about $3 million a year for ing about state and local public assistance. That now is down government and politics for to about $1 million annually. more than 30 years. He is a When Kimberly Robinson was columnist for The Times of elected township trustee in 2014, she Northwest Indiana. inherited a financial mess. She set out Page 19

Doug Ross, NWI Times: You’ve heard about Rus- possible that Evan Bayh, who’s been living in Washington sian hackers breaking into voter databases, The New York and sitting on roughly $10 million in campaign cash for a Times and other computer systems. Chances are good decade as he works out there lobbying, that he might at that you’ve been warned that hackers have seen sensi- some point re-enter the fray and might in fact run for this tive information about you at some point. Ted Koppel, race.” Young’s response shows how the competition has the former host of ABC’s Nightline program, takes this sharpened his reflexes. He takes a simple question, “Did scenario one step further, and it’s terrifying. I spoke with you see this coming?” and, with a couple of deft phrases, Koppel about his new book, “Lights Out: A Cyberattack, A uses the response to hit Bayh in a couple of tender spots, Nation Unprepared, Surviving the Aftermath,” prior to his the fact that he’s been lobbying and has spent quite a bit appearance at the Sinai Forum on, appropriately enough, of time away from Indiana. That’s the way it goes for the the 15th anniversary of the terrorist attacks on 9/11. hour we talk. I ask him several times about controversial Koppel noticed President Barack Obama’s passing refer- Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump, who has ences to the likelihood of a possible cyberattack public approval ratings that are lower than some that could cripple a large portion of the nation. natural disasters. Young responds by saying he A speech by Leon Panetta, former CIA director supports “the Republican nominee” and then, and former defense secretary, warned of a cyber each time, pivots to attack Democratic presiden- Pearl Harbor. Think about what hackers shutting tial candidate Hillary Clinton. At no time does down the power grid could mean. “We really Trump’s name ever cross Young’s lips. v only have three major grids in this country. You could be talking about tens of millions of people,” Kop- Randall Shepard, IBJ Forefront: As we enter pel said. “There never has been anything that comes that the finale of this astounding election cycle, we should close to that kind of devastating attack.” After Panetta’s pause to consider one of its most unsavory characteristics, speech, Koppel began calling federal agencies, the Ameri- a baseness in tone and language. To be sure, political can Red Cross and others to see how they have planned campaigns of days gone by often featured tough exchang- for this possibility. “Being a journalist of many, many years, es and sharp characterizations of opponents. Politics in the I’ve sort of developed a cynicism gland which led to ques- 19th century was not a game for the thin-skinned. And in tions about whether the government has done anything” the 20th century, sharp-elbowed material ran from Lyndon to prepare for a possible attack, he said. “The first thing Johnson’s commercial suggesting that little girls would die I discovered is you can’t get through, even when there’s when Barry Goldwater set off nuclear war, to George H.W. no crisis going on,” Koppel said. When he finally did get Bush’s work tying brutal killer Willie Horton to Michael Du- through to a human, he would be told to set aside enough kakis. Still, what passes for debate in this election seems food, water and essential prescription drugs for two or to represent a new low in the annals of public dialogue. I three days, and keep fresh batteries for a radio. When suggest Indiana has the capacity to go through the next he pressed for how the federal government or Red Cross three months without doing damage to our civic fabric. would respond, he got the same answer. “There really is In analyzing modern campaigns, we should separate out no plan,” he concluded. v what we see on television in the form of commercials and what we see individual candidates or their surrogates actu- John Krull, Statehouse File: Competition seems to ally say and do. Most commercials these days are planned agree with Todd Young. Until last month, Young seemed and paid for by somebody other than the candidates. This to be on a glide path to victory. He’d prevailed over Tea was not always true. Until the 1974 amendments to the Party darling and fellow U.S. Rep. Marlin Stutzman in Federal Election Campaign Act, most campaign cash was a rugged primary and was running against former U.S. raised and spent by committees associated with the indi- Rep. Baron Hill, D-Indiana, in the general election. Young vidual candidates. Federal legislation in recent decades has already had faced and defeated Hill once in a congres- sought to keep money away from candidates, thus funnel- sional race, and Hill was struggling to raise money for the ing massive sums to independent committees and PACs. Senate race. But then Hill dropped out and Evan Bayh This detachment has meant candidates have relatively — a former governor, a former U.S. senator— stepped in. little control over paid ads. That’s why commercials like the Bayh had huge name recognition and nearly $10 million recent ones by the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Com- in leftover campaign contributions at his disposal. With mittee roughing up Todd Young or those by the Republican that, Young went from being an overwhelming favorite to Governors Association painting a negative image of John a slight underdog. I ask if Young saw the change coming. Gregg have come to seem like standard fare. Though they He says he had no inkling Bayh was going to get into the might be less effective than they used to be, consultants race, but he was ready nonetheless. “When I originally still tell clients that it’s worth their money to run such stuff. contemplated running for this seat, there are a number of But the reason 2016 seems so much worse is a shift in different contingencies that you bake into a decision like what the candidates themselves and their surrogates are this, right?” Young says. “I’m a planner. And I thought it is willing to say about each other. v Page 20

to run for his old Senate seat, is a tion worry it could be defeated by a Former Rep. mystery to his own neighbors. Bayh presidential veto (Washington Post). has been portrayed by Republicans The House passed the legislation by Deckard dies as a Washington insider, and ques- voice vote, with leaders calling it a tions have swirled about whether or “moral imperative” to allow victims’ MOUNT VERNON — Joel not he actually lives in Indiana. The families to seek justice for the deaths Deckard, who represented Indiana’s Indianapolis Star took that question of loved ones as the country marks 8th District in Congress from 1979- to Bayh’s supposed neighbors on the the 15th anniversary of the attacks 83, saw his political career derailed north side of Indianapolis. “I have not that brought down the World Trade by a drunken driving crash and later seen him around here recently,” said Center towers and damaged the Pen- became a “human smug- George Landis, one neighbor tagon. But bill supporters are bracing gler” who helped undoc- who said he used to see Bayh for a veto fight with the White House, umented Brazilian fami- come and go. “He probably which argues the bill could harm the lies get into Canada, has still has the ownership of the United States’ relationship with Saudi died. He was 74 (Evans- condo.” Another neighbor, Arabia and establish a legal precedent ville Courier & Press). Patrice Rogers, was visibly that jeopardizes American officials Schneider Funeral Home shocked when told that Bayh overseas. Advocates for the legislation in Mount Vernon is handling arrange- lives in the same community. “Evan are also warily eyeing the congressio- ments. Deckard, a Republican, was an Bayh lives next door? Are you serious? nal calendar over fears the administra- Indiana legislator for eight years be- I never knew that, I didn’t, I’m sorry. tion may try to pocket-veto the legisla- fore being elected to Congress. In fall I’ve been over here three years and tion if lawmakers leave Washington 1983, while running for his third term, never knew he lived over here,” she soon to focus on the election. Deckard crashed his car into a tree said. in Posey County. He refused a breath GOP voter exam and was charged with DWI. Good polling news Democrat Frank McCloskey won the registration is up election, and the political career of for 3 GOP senators Deckard, then 40, was done. He WASHINGTON — For all the finished a degree at the University of WASHINGTON — A set of attention on battleground polls giv- Evansville and worked a variety of lo- new Senate race polls from Quinni- ing Hillary Clinton the edge, Donald cal jobs before moving to Jacksonville, piac University contain good news for Trump enjoys at least one electoral Florida, in 1989 to seek a fresh start. Republicans, with GOP Sens. Rob Port- advantage in his uphill climb to the He ran for the U.S. Senate in Florida man, Richard Burr and Marco Rubio White House: Republicans are out- in 2000 on the Reform Party ticket. all leading their Democratic opponents pacing Democrats in registering new He worked as a computer specialist (Politico). In , Republican voters in key states (). A and at a call center before starting his Sen. Pat Toomey is in a very tight race review of registration figures shows own transportation company, ferrying with Democrat Katie McGinty, taking that in the swing states that sign up people around the Jacksonville area 46 percent to her 45 percent in the voters by party, Republicans are see- in a fleet of Ford hybrid SUVs. That survey. But other Republican sena- ing a significantly bigger boost since is the job that led him to become a tors enjoy wider advantages: Portman 2012. In states like Florida and Penn- “coyote,” which is how human smug- leads Democrat Ted Strickland in Ohio, sylvania, the party has added tens of glers are referred to in illegal immi- 51 percent to 40 percent. Rubio has thousands of voters to the rolls at a gration parlance. In a 2010 interview an edge over Rep. Patrick Murphy in time when Democrats have seen their with the Bloomington Herald-Times, Florida, 50 percent to 43 percent. And base shrink. “The numbers [in those Deckard said that between December North Carolina’s Burr tops Democrat states] … are a huge shift from what 2007 and March 2008, he made eight Deborah Ross, 49 percent to 43 per- we’ve seen in 2012,” Republican Na- trips into Canada, taking 30 Brazilian cent. tional Committee spokeswoman Lind- men, women and children to new lives say Walters said. The surge doesn’t in . Congress passes change the fact that Clinton leads, if only by a thin margin, in most battle- Hoosier neighbors 9/11 lawsuit bill ground state polls, which presumably reflect the current voter make-up. rarely see Bayh WASHINGTON — Congress Fox News ratings show Clinton main- on Friday sent President Obama a tains the advantage in the Electoral bill that would allow families of the College, while a Washington Post sur- INDIANAPOLIS — Evan Bayh, victims of the 9/11 attacks to sue the former Indiana senator who vey this week of registered voters in Saudi Arabia over its alleged ties to all 50 states reflects a similar dynamic. surprised many in July by deciding terrorism, but advocates of the legisla-