RUSSIA’S PACIFIC FUTURE Solving the South Kuril Islands Dispute Dmitri Trenin and Yuval Weber DECEMBER 2012 RUSSIA’S PACIFIC FUTURE Solving the South Kuril Islands Dispute Dmitri Trenin and Yuval Weber DECEMBER 2012 © 2012 Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. All rights reserved. The Carnegie Moscow Center and the Carnegie Endowment do not take institutional positions on public policy issues; the views represented here are the authors’ own and do not necessarily reflect the views of the Endowment, its staff, or its trustees. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without permission in writing from the Carnegie Moscow Center or Carnegie Endowment. Please direct inquiries to: Carnegie Moscow Center 16/2 Tverskaya Moscow, 125009, Russia Tel. +7 (495) 935 8904 Fax: +7 (495) 935 8906
[email protected] This publication can be downloaded at no cost at Carnegie.ru CP 169 Contents Summary 1 Disputed Territory 3 Historical Background 4 Attempted Solutions and Lessons Learned 6 New Strategic Approaches 8 Outlining the Deal 11 The Regional Context: A Step Toward a Security Community in the Pacific 13 Conclusion 14 Notes 17 About the Authors 19 Carnegie Moscow Center 20 Kamchatka (RUSSIA) 0 200 mi 0 300 km Sakhalin Sea of Island (RUSSIA) Okhotsk TREATY OF ST. PETERSBURG RUSSIA (1875) TREATY OF PORTSMOUTH s ) A (1905) I d S S n U a R l Y s B A I D E N l R I i E T r S H u I IN C K M AREA D A ENLARGED ( BELOW North Hokkaido Pacific Ocean (JAPAN) Vladivostok Sea of Urup Japan d s a n Sea of l ) I s ies JAPAN l or Okhotsk r i rit u er K T SHIMODA rn h he TREATY (1855) t rt o u o S (N ACTUAL Iturup Tokyo BORDER POST-WWII North Pacific Ocean Kunashir Shikotan Hokkaido Habomai Islands 0 50 mi (JAPAN) 0 75 km LUCIDITY INFORMATION DESIGN, LLC Summary The dispute over the South Kuril Islands continues to plague Russia-Japan relations.