The Cook Political Report’s Road Map to the 2020 Elections
David Wasserman Thursday, Sept. 19 1:25 – 2:25 p.m. Governors Ballroom
David Wasserman
David Wasserman is the U.S. House editor and quantitative election analyst for the non- partisan Cook Political Report. Founded in 1984, The Cook Political Report provides analyses of presidential, Senate, House and gubernatorial races. The New York Times called the Cook Political Report “a newsletter that both parties regard as authoritative.”
Wasserman analyzes the current political environment in lively and entertaining presentations that he can tailor to his audiences’ specific interests or locales. His data-driven forecasting looks at both national and local trends (if requested, he can even do a district-by-district outlook), the relationship between consumer brand loyalty and voting, and what the future holds for American elections.
Nate Silver of ESPN's FiveThirtyEight.com has written: “Wasserman’s knowledge of the nooks and crannies of political geography can make him seem like a local,” and the Los Angeles Times recently called Wasserman “whip smart” and a “scrupulously nonpartisan” analyst whose “numbers nerd-dom was foretold at a young age.”
In the fall of 2016, Wasserman drew wide praise for his accurate pre-election analysis, including his uncanny September piece entitled, “How Trump Could Win the White House While Losing the Popular Vote.” Leading Republican pollster Kristen Soltis Anderson recently concluded, “Nobody of my generation knows American politics as well as Dave Wasserman.”
Wasserman served as an analyst for the NBC News Election Night Decision Desk in 2016, 2012 and 2008 and has appeared on NBC Nightly News, ABC World News, C-SPAN Washington Journal, CNN, and NPR. He is a frequent contributor to FiveThirtyEight.com and his commentary has been cited in numerous outlets including POLITICO , the New York Times , the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, the Economist, and RealClearPolitics .
An enthusiast for data and maps, Wasserman served as a contributing writer to the 2014 and 2016 editions of the Almanac of American Politics. A frequent speaker and guest lecturer, he has shared insights into the latest political trends with audiences at Harvard's Institute of Politics, the Dole Institute of Politics, and the University of Chicago Institute of Politics. In 2014, Twitter awarded Wasserman “Best of #Twitter” honors for his real-time election coverage.
Prior to joining the Cook Political Report in 2007, Wasserman served for three years as House editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, a widely respected political analysis newsletter and website founded by renowned University of Virginia professor Larry Sabato. In that role, Wasserman led the publication to correctly predict Democrats would score a gain of 29 House seats in November 2006.
A native of New Jersey, Wasserman holds a BA in government with distinction from the University of Virginia and was awarded the 2006 Emmerich-Wright Outstanding Thesis prize for his study of congressional redistricting standards.
The Cook Political Report’s Road Map to the 2020 Election
David Wasserman, U.S. House Editor, The Cook Political Report Minnesota Hospital Association September 19, 2019 Email: [email protected] Web: http://www.cookpolitical.com Twitter: @Redistrict
The opinions presented are those of the presenter only.
Disclaimer: A Failed 2016 Prediction…
1 I. How Did We Get Here?
2 Lifestyle Realignment of the Electorate
← Austin, TX
Lebanon, TN →
The Great Organic/Nostalgic Sort
Election Winner Whole Foods Cracker Barrel Election Culture Year Gap
1992 Clinton (D) 59% 40% 19% 1996 Clinton (D) 64% 41% 23% 2000 Bush (R) 44% 75% 31% 2004 Bush (R) 40% 79% 39% 2008 Obama (D) 78% 35% 43%
2012 Obama (D) 75% 29% 46%
3 Trump Era: Huge Metro/Rural Divide
Winner Whole Foods Cracker Barrel Counties Counties Election Culture Year Gap
2016 Trump (R) 22% 76% 54%
2016: Whole Foods/Cracker Barrel gap was widest ever.
2018: 70% of districts Democrats flipped contain a Whole Foods.
4 I. Four 2018 Takeaways for 2020
1. High Passions = Historic Turnout
Modern Record: At roughly 84% of 2016 presidential race, it was the highest recorded turnout for a modern midterm election
5 Disconnect: DC/Dem Base were Consumed by…
But Swing Voters Cared More About…
2. 2018: A Tale of Two Elections
6 House: A Suburban Revolt Against Trump Powered a Democratic Takeover
Democratic gains: 40 seats – largest Democratic pickup since Watergate. Southern suburbs voting like northern ones.
But in the Senate, Democrats Lost Seats, Mostly in Rural States (Now 53R to 47D )
Democratic disadvantage: Because every state gets two Senators, small & rural states get more power.
Unrepresentative body? A majority of the Senate now represents just 18% of the American population.
Enormous power: Senate has power to confirm Supreme Court nominees, cabinet secretaries & has final say on impeachment.
7 3. 2018: First Year in History Americans Elected 100 Women to the U.S. House
Reaction to Trump: Democrats expanded their ranks of women by 46%, while Republican women declined 43%.
4. Red Exodus : Out with Trump Skeptics…
And in with Trump Loyalists (Mostly)…
8 New Congress: Meet the Freshmen
New Congress: Meet the Freshmen
9 II. Where Are We Going in 2020?
House 2020: Cash + GOP Retirements = Dem Edge
10 Minnesota Spotlight: 7th District a Toss Up
Will he run? House Ag Chair Collin Peterson (D) represents a district Trump won by 30% & his margins have declined in three straight elections.
Senate 2020: Republicans’ 2018 Pickups Make Dems’ Path Difficult
Key Races for Control: AZ (Open), Gardner (CO), Collins (ME), Tillis (NC)
11 Opposite Presidents. Similar Political Trajectories?
Obama (2010) Trump (2018) Catchy Slogan “Change You Can Believe In” ”Make America Great Again” Legislative Success Affordable Care Act Tax Cuts & Jobs Act Legislative Failure Carbon Tax (Cap and Trade) Healthcare Repeal & Replace Midterm Result Loses House, Holds Senate Loses House, Holds Senate
Four Reasons Trump Starts Out an Even Bet to Win Again in 2020*
*Despite sporting a lower approval rating than Clinton, Bush or Obama had at this point in their presidency
12 1. Voters Like the Economy (even if they don’t like Trump personally)
Overall Handling of President/Year Result Approval Economy Bill Clinton (1996) 54% 55% Won
GeorgeW. Bush (2004) 48% 47% Won
Barack Obama (2012) 52% 45% Won
DonaldTrump (August 2019) 41% 53% ??
2. Trump Has United Republican Support
Trump’s approval rating among Republican voters is still 89% (Gallup weekly). The reason? His detractors have left the party.
13 3. Democrats Have a Fundamental Geography Problem
Every four years, the U.S. electorate gets 3% more college-educated and 2% less white. Theoretically, this should benefit the Democratic Party.
But Demographic Shifts Benefit Democrats the Most in States that Matter the Least
14 2016: 3 of 3,141 Counties Elected Trump
Trump lost the popular vote by 2.9 million votes, but won the Electoral College thanks to Macomb, MI; Westmoreland, PA & Waukesha, WI.
2020: Dems May Need to Beat Trump by as Much as 4% to Win the Electoral College
15 4. Dems ’ Chaotic Primary: Trump’s Best Ally?
Democrats’ delegate rules, strong fundraising & “frontloaded” primary calendar – CA & TX on Super Tuesday – increase risk of a split Milwaukee.
Dems Debates Incentivizing Unpopular Positions
16 Biden is Democrats’ Clear Frontrunner – But is he the Most “Electable?”
Pew Research: 53% of Democrats want to see their party move in a “more moderate” direction, just 40% “more liberal.” (Feb. 2019)
The Big Four: How Do the Early States Play Out?
Candidate Slate
Key Early State South Carolina Iowa New Hampshire South Carolina
Quinnipiac National Survey (August 2019) All Democrats 32% 19% 15% 7% Black 46% 10% 10% 7% 18-34 10% 25% 31% 6% Very liberal 15% 34% 22% 12% Whites +College 29% 25% 9% 11%
17 Are Dems Overlooking Promising Candidates?
Type Left/Progressive Centrist/Blank Slate
Established/ Conventional
Anti-Elite/ Disrupter
My Prediction: Only a Balanced Ticket Can Win
18 Questions…
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