Tuesday, February 23, 2021 5-Day Statewide Weather Outlook No Threat Low Threat Moderate Threat High Threat Damaging River Day Lightning Tornado Freeze Wildfire Fog Rip Currents Wind/Hail Flooding Southeast FL Southeast Tue North Florida Panhandle & NE FL Florida West Coast South East Coast Wed North Florida Gulf Coast Florida Gulf Coast

Thu North Florida Statewide Statewide

Western Panhandle Fri North Florida Statewide Panhandle East & West Coast Southeast FL Western Sat North Florida Statewide Panhandle & NE FL Panhandle West Coast

Forecast Fronts & Weather for Wednesday (left), Thursday (center-left), Friday (center-right), and Saturday (right)

Forecast High Temperatures Thursday Afternoon Forecast Rainfall Totals Through Saturday Night …Dry and Mild This Week…Many North Florida Rivers Continue to Rise Into Next Week…Patchy Fog Each Night…Some Rip Current Risk Into This Weekend…

FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 02.23.21

Tuesday – Saturday: A mild and quiet stretch of weather is expected this week across Florida. The next few storm systems will track well to the north of Florida, keeping away any heavy rainfall and severe weather threats. Each day will start with some patchy dense fog, particularly along the Gulf Coast and Northeast Florida late in the week. Skies will then turn mostly sunny as temperatures warm up into the lower 70s to mid-80s. Forecast Rain Winds will be light and variable until Chances on Friday when breezy southerly winds Wednesday will develop for the upcoming weekend (10-15 mph).

Skies may turn partly cloudy by the afternoons with some isolated showers and thunderstorms in South Florida on Tuesday and Wednesday and in the western Panhandle on Friday and Saturday. Severe weather is not expected, but a thunderstorm or two each day could contain occasional lightning and brief, heavy rainfall. The nights will be mild as well with low temperatures above normal Forecast Rain for late February. Low temperatures Chances on will gradually increase as the week Friday & Saturday progresses, starting out in the upper 30s to mid-40s in North Florida tonight and edning the week with lows in the mid-50s to mid-60s by the weekend. The Peninsula will see lows in the 60s and 70s all week. Skies will be clear overnight with some patchy fog developing after sunset, but mainly after midnight.

Flooding & Hydrology: A widespread river flood event is ongoing across North Florida from several heavy rain events over the last couple of weeks. River Flood Warnings are in effect for the Apalachicola River near Blountstown; the Ochlockonee River near Concord and Havana; the Santa Fe River at O’Leno State Park, Ft. White, and Three Rivers Estates; the St. Marys River near

FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 02.23.21

Macclenny; and the Withlacoochee River at Pinetta. Minor river flooding is expected at most of Current & these locations, with moderate Forecast River flooding later this week on the Santa Levels Fe River at Three Rivers Estates. Minor flooding is also ongoing at the Chipola River at Scott’s Ferry and the Ocklawaha River near Rodman’s Dam, with moderate flooding forecast for the Alapaha River near Jennings. These locations have crested except for the Apalachicola, Alapaha, and lower Santa Fe. As flood waters from the Alapaha, Withlacoochee, and Santa Fe flow into the Suwannee, it too will begin to rise. Starting this weekend and continuing into next week, minor flooding is expected along the Suwannee River near Ellaville, Suwannee River near Luraville, Suwannee River near Branford, Suwannee River at Rock Bluff near Bell, Suwannee River at Manatee Springs and the Santa Fe River at Hildreth. Additional River Flood Warnings will be issued over the coming days for these locations. Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 15.41 feet, which is within the operational band but 0.86 feet above normal for this time of year. A constant release continues down the Caloosahatchee. The lake level will gradually fall with dry weather expected this week.

Drought & Fire Weather: Last week’s Drought Monitor continued to show abnormally dry conditions in the western Panhandle and across parts of the Peninsula. Some rain has fallen over the last few days in the dry areas, but additional rain is not forecast this week. Thus, changes to the drought monitor for this week will not be Keetch-Byram significant. Over the month of March, some Drought Index drought is expected to develop in the (KBDI) as of Peninsula. The latest Keetch-Byram Drought February 23, 2021 Index statewide average is 153 on a scale from 0 (wet) to 800 (dry). The driest areas are across South Florida (yellow) where the KBDI is over 500, but county averages remain below 500 at this time. Soils and fuels across much of North  WET DRY  and Central Florida remain wet. While humidity will be low mid-week in North Florida, winds will be light. Once breezy winds develop for the weekend, humidity will remain well above critical levels. The threat of a significant wildfire threat is expected to remain minimal over the

FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 02.23.21 next 5 days. There are currently 9 active wildfires across the state burning a total of 43.8 acres. 7 are 100% contained.

Rip Currents & Marine Hazards: Red Tide A high rip current risk will continue Concentrations today in Southeast Florida with a moderate from FWC – Past risk at Panhandle beaches and all other Atlantic beaches. Winds over the next few 8 Days days will be light and wave heights will gradually decrease. This will reduce the rip current risk over the next few days. However, as breezy southerly winds develop again starting on Friday, a moderate to high rip current risk will again return to Southeast Florida, the Panhandle, and the rest of the Atlantic coastline. The rip current risk will remain low along the West Coast. The bloom of Red Tide in Southwest Florida continues, but is confined to the coast of Lee County. Low to medium concentrations were observed over the last week with reports of respiratory irritation and fish kills at local beaches. For the latest Red Tide concentration reports, please view the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission map.

NWS Mobile Daily Hazards NWS Tallahassee Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Jacksonville Daily Hazards NWS Melbourne Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Tampa Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Miami Daily Graphical Hazards NWS Key West Daily Hazards

For the official National Weather Service forecast, please click on the following cities: Pensacola Panama City Tallahassee Gainesville Jacksonville Daytona Beach Orlando Tampa Fort Myers West Palm Beach Miami Key West Click here for the latest watches, warnings, and advisories from The National Weather Service For coastal and offshore forecasts throughout Florida and Georgia, please click here. ------Have a great rest of the week! Michael Spagnolo, Deputy State Meteorologist Florida Division of Emergency Management www.FloridaDisaster.org

FDEM Statewide 5-Day Weather Outlook 02.23.21