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Weekly Wire 10 29 08

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Weekly Wire 10 29 08 Greetings from the Project on Middle East Democracy! Debate in Washington last week focused largely on U.S. policy following the Presidential election, with several public events examining options for supporting democracy and confronting terrorism in the post-Bush years. Policy debates also continued to focus on the U.S. presence in Iraq and a potential Status of Forces Agreement, as well as U.S. policy toward Iran. In the region, signs of instability continued to threaten weak central governments in Afghanistan and Lebanon. This week, debates will naturally be dominated once again by next week's elections, while public events in Washington will examine Iraq, U.S. Relations with Turkey, and two-day conference to end the week on U.S. policy toward the Arab World. See POMED's Washington DC Events Calendar for a full listing of these and other relevant events. For more detailed coverage of the debates surrounding U.S. foreign policy and the prospects for democracy in the Middle East, be sure to check out POMED's blog, the POMED Wire . The Weekly Wire October 27, 2008 Legislation No legislation last week as Congress has adjourned at least until after the November 4 election. Committee Hearings No relevant Congressional committee hearings last week. In Washington U.S.-Iraq SOFA debate: Last week the Iraqi cabinet declared that the recently submitted Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) requires substantial changes , and some commentators noted that it is now highly unlikely that any agreement will be passed before the UN mandate expires on Jan.1, if at all . Some lent an important historical perspective to the issue of immunity for U.S. troops from Iraqi legal jurisdiction. Also, Iraq criticized U.S. officials for saying that it will face significant security consequences if it fails to pass the SOFA. While some argued that the political process in Iraq may just be strong enough to continue without an expansive U.S. military role, others reminded us that all the old sectarian and political cleavages are still operative . In a bright spot, last week U.S. forces handed over security responsibility to Iraqi troops in a province once referred to as the "triangle of death". Divergent Views on Iran: The Iran policy debate continued last week, with some analysts laying out the military options after declaring the prospects of a nuclear- capable Iran "strategically untenable". Others could not disagree more , and urged the U.S. to stop "obsessing about the nuclear issue" and engage in ambitious diplomacy without precondition. Some who urged increased diplomacy called for a focus on areas of common interest. Meanwhile, others reported that the Iranian President cancelled some public engagements after falling ill from exhaustion. Election 2008: Some analysts last week took a macro-level view of Barack Obama and John McCain's foreign policies and how they might be carried out once in office. Others argued that much of the initial excitement in the Arab world about Barack Obama's candidacy has faded away as he has adapted more traditional foreign policy views. Throughout the week, several scholars sought to assess the legacy of the Bush administration in the Middle East, responding to the question, "Are we better or worse off in the Middle East than we were eight years ago?" Also Worth Reading The Progressive Policy Institute (PPI) has published a new paper by POMED's Director of Research Shadi Hamid , "Necessary Risks: How a New U.S. Administration Can - Finally - Give Us the Middle East Policy We Need." Shadi characterizes U.S. policy toward the Middle East as short-sighted, based on faulty assumptions, and unwilling to acknowledge error. He concludes with a series of policy recommendations including leveraging U.S. foreign assistance to push for democracy and engaging nonviolent Islamist groups across the region. In the Middle East Afghanistan Winnable or Unwinnable?: Last week, scholars, journalists, and world politicians continued to debate Afghanistan policy and the country's "downward spiral." Some reported that the Taliban have already returned to power , while others defined the war as both winnable and necessary . There were also reports that President Karzai's reelection next year is in serious doubt in the face of deteriorating security and endemic government corruption. Some analysts called for a major diplomatic initiative involving all the regional stakeholders, or suggested that the simplest way to stabilize the country may be to negotiate a truce with Taliban fundamentalists, while others reported on Afghanistan's emerging anti-war movement . Democracy and Human Rights in Egypt: Last week Egyptian blogger and activist Nora Younis received the annual Human Rights Award from Human Rights First. In related news, there was an in-depth article examining efforts by young democracy activists in Egypt to use new media such as blogging and Facebook to mobilize political movements, while young Muslim Brotherhood bloggers use the medium to counter the " intellectual and organizational inertia " within the group. Finally, a man was sentenced to three years in prison in the first sexual harassment case ever to be taken to court in Egypt. Pakistan's Problems Mount: There were reports last week that Pakistan's serious economic crisis and continued political instability may threaten to undermine its newly elected government. Some argued that President Asif Ali Zardari will be unable to mobilize public and political support against the country's militants. Lebanon Still Precarious: Last week some analyzed the impact of the 2006 Israel- Hezbollah war, and argued that two years on, Hezbollah's capacity to destabilize the country has not diminished, making future hostilities all but inevitable. Though others reported that Israel is considering a long-term non-aggression treaty with Lebanon. Turkey and the E.U. Some reviewed Turkey's status in its bid for E.U. membership, noting that slow reform and a weakening of Turkish-European public relations has hurt the country's progress. Some warned that Turkey's public may lose interest altogether. 2002 Arab Peace Plan: Some expressed both skepticism and excitement regarding recent statements of renewed interest in the 2002 Arab Peace Plan by Israeli leaders. In Case You Missed It 'Exporting,' "Spreading,' or 'Supporting' Middle East Democracy: On Monday (10/20), The Project on Middle East Democracy and the Center for Contemporary Arab Studies hosted James Traub , contributing writer of the New York Times Magazine ; and Michele Dunne , Senior Associate at the Carnegie Endowment, to discuss Traub's new book, The Freedom Agenda: Why America Must Spread Democracy (Just Not the Way George Bush Did). The event was moderated by David DeBartolo , POMED's Director of Dialogue Programs. Traub lamented the Bush Administration's contamination of democracy promotion by linking it indelibly with the Iraq war. He called for continuing support for Middle East reformers and for recognizing the legitimacy of the region's moderate Islamist parties. For notes on this POMED event, click here . U.S. Democracy Promotion After the Bush Years: On Monday (10/20), the Brookings Institution hosted Amitai Etzioni , Professor of International Affairs at GWU; James Traub , contributing writer at the New York Times Magazine ; and Tamara Cofman Wittes , Senior Fellow at Brookings' Saban Center, to discuss the state of U.S. democracy promotion efforts after the Bush years. The event was moderated by Ivo Daalder , Senior Fellow in Foreign Policy Studies at Brookings. Traub said the lesson of 9/11 is that what happens inside states matters as much as their external behavior. Amatai Etzioni said the U.S. should embrace regimes that forswear WMD and support for terrorism, regardless of their record on human rights and democracy. Tamara Cofman Wittes argued that the trade-off between security and democracy is often more imagined than rea l. For POMED's notes, click here . Domestic Politics and U.S. Policy in the Middle East: On Monday (10/20), the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars hosted a panel discussion entitled, "McCain, Obama, and the Middle East: The Influence of Domestic Politics on U.S. Policy." Participants included Graeme Bannerman, Adjunct Scholar at the Middle East Institute; Hussein Ibish , Executive Director of the Hala Salaam Maksoud Foundation for Arab-American Leadership and Senior Fellow at the American Task Force on Palestine; Richard Strauss , editor of the Middle East Policy Survey ; moderated by Aaron David Miller , Public Policy Scholar at the Woodrow Wilson Center. Panelists agreed that domestic lobbies certainly do influence policy in Washington, but cannot override the will of a determined president. Click here for POMED's notes on the discussion. Beyond November: Terrorists, Rogue States, and Democracy: On Tuesday (10/21), the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) hosted Jon Alterman , director of the Center for Strategic and International Studies' Middle East Program; Reuel Marc Gerecht , AEI resident fellow; Martin Indyk , Director of the Saban Center for Middle East policy at the Brookings Institution; and Vance Serchuk , foreign policy adviser to Senator Joseph Lieberman. The event was moderated by Danielle Pletka , vice president for foreign and defense policy at AEI. The panelists discussed the mixed legacy of the Bush administration in Iraq, Afghanistan, and Israel-Palestine. They agreed on the strategic threat posed by Iran, yet differed on the prospects and efficacy of diplomatic engagement. For POMED's event notes, click here . Delicate Situation Between the U.S. and Iran: On Wednesday (10/22), the Century Foundation hosted an event on U.S.-Iranian relations featuring Sam Gardiner , retired U.S. Air Force colonel; Hillary Mann Leverett , CEO of Stratega and former Director for Iran and Persian Gulf Affairs at the NSC; and Thomas Pickering , former U.S. Undersecretary of State for Political Affairs. The discussion was moderated by Geneive Abdo , foreign policy fellow at the Century Foundation.
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