A RENTAL HOUSING MARKET STUDY FOR St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina St. Andrews Pointe Apartments
April 2, 2009
Prepared for: South Carolina State Housing Finance and Development Authority 300-C Outlet Pointe Boulevard Columbia, SC 29210
Prepared by: Community Research Services, LLC 2380 Science Parkway Suite 107 Okemos, MI 48864 (517) 827-6411
Copyright © 2009, Community Research Services, LLC A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Table of Contents
SECTION 1: INTRODUCTION ...... 1
SECTION 2: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ...... 2
SECTION 3: PROJECT DESCRIPTION...... 4
SECTION 4: MARKET PROFILE ...... 6 SITE EVALUATION/CHARACTERISTICS ...... 6 Map: Local Features/Amenities...... 8 Site Photos...... 9 CRIME STATISTICS...... 13 Table 4.1: Crime Data...... 14 PRIMARY AND SECONDARY MARKET AREA DELINEATION...... 15 Map: State of South Carolina ...... 17 Map: Primary Market Area – By Census Tracts ...... 18 ECONOMIC CHARACTERISTICS...... 19 Table 4.2: Employment by Industry (2000) ...... 19 Table 4.3: Employment by Occupation (2000) ...... 20 Figure 1: Area Employment Growth ...... 22 Figure 2: Unemployment Rate Comparison...... 22 Table 4.4: Employment Trends...... 23 Table 4.5: Major Employers...... 24 Map: Area Employers...... 25 COMMUTING PATTERNS...... 26 Map: Commuting Patterns (2000)...... 27 WAGES BY OCCUPATION ...... 28 Table 4.6: Wages by Occupation – 2001 to 2006...... 29 Figure 3: Employment by Industry – 2001 to 2006 ...... 29
SECTION 5: COMMUNITY DEMOGRAPHIC DATA ...... 30 POPULATION TRENDS ...... 30 Table 5.1: Population Trends (2000 to 2011) ...... 30 AGE DISTRIBUTION...... 31 Table 5.2: Age Distribution (2000 to 2011)...... 32 Table 5.3: Average Household Size (2000 to 2011) ...... 33 HOUSEHOLD TRENDS...... 34 Table 5.4: Household Trends (2000 to 2011)...... 34 Table 5.5: Renter Household Trends (1990 to 2000) ...... 35 MEDIAN GROSS RENT AND UNIT SIZE...... 36 Table 5.6: Median Gross Rent (1990 to 2000) ...... 36 Table 5.7: Rental Unit Size Distribution (2000)...... 36 GROUP QUARTERS ...... 37 Table 5.8: Group Quarters (1990 to 2000) ...... 37
SECTION 6: HOUSEHOLD INCOME TRENDS ...... 38 INCOME TRENDS ...... 38 Table 6.1: Median Household Incomes (1999 to 2011)...... 38
A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
INCOME-QUALIFIED POPULATION ...... 39 Table 6.2: Household Income by Tenure – PMA (2008) ...... 39 Table 6.3: Household Income by Tenure – St. Andrews CDP (2008) ...... 40 Table 6.4: Household Income by Tenure – Richland County (2008)...... 41 Table 6.5: Future Household Income Distribution (2011) - PMA...... 42
SECTION 7: DEMAND ANALYSIS...... 43 DEMAND FOR TAX CREDIT RENTAL UNITS ...... 43 Table 7.1: Demand Calculation by Income Targeting (2011)...... 45 CAPTURE AND ABSORPTION RATES...... 46
SECTION 8: SUPPLY ANALYSIS ...... 47 HOUSING STOCK COMPOSITION ...... 47 Table 8.1: Housing Stock Composition (2000)...... 47 SUBSTANDARD HOUSING ...... 48 Table 8.2: Substandard Housing (2000)...... 48 LOCAL RENTAL MARKET CHARACTERISTICS...... 49 Table 8.3: Rental Housing Survey ...... 52 Table 8.4: Rent Range for 3 Bedrooms...... 53 Table 8.5: Amenities ...... 54 COMPARABLE RENTAL PROJECTS...... 55 Map: Comparable Rental Developments...... 56 PROGRAMMATIC RENTS...... 59 Table 8.6: Programmatic Rent Comparisons ...... 59
SECTION 9: INTERVIEWS ...... 60
SECTION 10: CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS...... 61
SECTION 11: BIBLIOGRAPHY...... 62
SECTION 12: RESUME ...... 63
APPENDIX A: EMAIL CORRESPONDENCE...... 64
APPENDIX B: PROGRAMMATIC RENT CALCULATIONS...... 68
APPENDIX C: FORM S-2...... 69
APPENDIX D: NCAHMA CHECKLIST ...... 71
APPENDIX E: RENT ROLL – ST. ANDREWS POINTE APARTMENTS...... 74
APPENDIX F: FLOOR PLANS AND ELEVATIONS – ST. ANDREWS POINTE ...... 81
A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
NCAHMA CERTIFICATION
This market study has been prepared by Community Research Services, LLC, a member in good standing of the National Council of Affordable Housing Market Analysts (NCAHMA). This study has been prepared in conformance with the standards adopted by NCAHMA for the market analysts’ industry. These standards include the Standard Definitions of Key Terms Used in Market Studies for Affordable Housing Projects, and Model Content Standards for the Content of Market Studies for Affordable Housing Projects. These Standards are designed to enhance the quality of market studies and to make them easier to prepare, understand, and use by market analysts and by the end users. These Standards are voluntary only, and no legal responsibility regarding their use is assumed by the National Council of Affordable Housing Market Analysts. Community Research Services, LLC is duly qualified and experienced in providing market analysis for Affordable Housing. The company’s principals participate in NCAHMA educational and information sharing programs to maintain the highest professional standards and state-of-the-art knowledge. Community Research Services, LLC is an independent market analyst. No principal or employee of Community Research Services, LLC has any financial interest whatsoever in the development for which this analysis has been undertaken. While the document specifies Community Research Services, LLC, the certification is always signed by the individual completing the study and attesting to the certification.
COMMUNITY RESEARCH SERVICES, LLC
______Kelly J. Murdock
Date: April 2, 2009
A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
CONSULTANT CERTIFICATION
I affirm that I have made a physical inspection of the market and surrounding area and the information obtained in the field has been used to determine the need and demand for LIHTC units. I understand that any misrepresentation of this statement may result in the denial of further participation in the South Carolina State Housing Finance & Development Authority’s programs. I also affirm that I have no financial interest in the project or current business relationship with the ownership entity and my compensation is not contingent on this project being funded. This report was written according to the SCSHFDA’s market study requirements. The information included is accurate and can be relied upon by SCSHFDA to present a true assessment of the low-income housing rental market.
CERTIFICATE OF ACCURACY
I hereby attest that this market study has been completed by an independent third party market research firm with no fees received contingent upon the funding of this proposal. Furthermore, information contained within the following report obtained through other sources, including community officials, is considered to be trustworthy. However, Community Research Services, LLC does not guarantee the data nor assume any liability for any errors in fact, analysis, or judgment.
COMMUNITY RESEARCH SERVICES, LLC
______Kelly J. Murdock
Date: April 2, 2009
A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Section 1: INTRODUCTION
The South Carolina State Housing Finance and Development Authority (SCSHFDA) has commissioned Community Research Services, LLC (CRS) to prepare the following market study to examine and analyze the St. Andrews/Columbia area pertains to the rehabilitation of an existing affordable housing facility. The subject property, St. Andrews Pointe Apartments, is a 150-unit affordable rental development originally constructed in 1994, with all units targeted at 60% of Area Median Income (AMI). The subject property is located at 1510 St. Andrews Road, within the St. Andrews Census Designated Place (CDP), which is just outside of the City of Columbia (but still has a Columbia mailing address). The immediate area surrounding the property consists of a combination of light industrial/office outlets, vacant land, and residential alternatives. Most nearby commercial properties appear to be in good condition and are for the most part service-oriented businesses. The targeted population segment represents low-income families with incomes generally between $25,269 and $37,800.
This study assumes that federal Low Income Housing Tax Credits will be utilized in the rehabilitation of the subject property, along with the associated rent and income restrictions obtained from the SCSHFDA. The subject, after renovations are complete, will features 30 units (20 percent of all units) restricted to households at 50 percent of Area Median Income (AMI) and the remaining 120 units (80 percent) restricted at 60 percent of AMI.
The primary purpose of the following market analysis is to provide evidence whether or not sufficient market depth and demand exist for the successful renovation of the subject property within the local rental market. This will be demonstrated through an in-depth analysis of local and regional demographic and income trends, economic and employment patterns, and existing housing conditions, as well as a supply and demand analysis within the local rental market area. A phone survey of existing rental projects comparable to the subject within the area was also reviewed and analyzed to further measure the potential market depth for the subject proposal.
1 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Section 2: EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The following overview highlights the major findings and conclusions reached from information collected through demographic analysis, economic observations, and survey research of existing developments:
CRS can forward a positive recommendation for the rehabilitation of the subject property. It is our belief that renovation of the subject property allow the development to continue to provide affordable rental housing to those within the LIHTC-eligible range, with a modern set of amenities and up to date project features. The renovation of the subject is supported by prevailing economic trends, the success of other housing developments, the information acquired through interviews with local officials, and the demand calculations.
The subject is located at 1510 St. Andrews Road, within the northwest side of Columbia. The site consists of 150 townhome units, a community building with pool and playgrounds, and landscaping throughout the site. Many of the buildings and much of the landscaping are clearly in need of attention. The proposed renovations will allow the subject property to remain a competitive but affordable rental option for those with low to moderate incomes.
A wide range of retail outlets are located a short distance from the subject property, primarily along Broad River Road and St. Andrews Road. Most personal and family needs can be met by the grocery stores, pharmacies, department stores, and public facilities found within the immediate area.
The overall occupancy rate was calculated at 92.1%, based on information provided by leasing agents. Among the properties considered comparable to the subject, an occupancy rate of 95.8% was calculated.
From 2000 onward, the local population and household totals are expected to increase. By 2011, the PMA’s population is projected to total 109,467 persons, an increase of approximately 11.5% from 2000. The number of households is expected to increase by 15.3% during the same period. As a result of these trends, continued statistical demand potential is present within the market area.
A capture rate of 15.4% was determined based on the demand calculation (including renter household growth, substandard units, overburdened rental housing potential, and excluding LIHTC activity since 2008). However, this assumes a complete re-lease of the property. Since no displacement is planned, and all current residents are income-eligible, the true capture rate is most likely well below two percent, reflecting the current vacancies at the development, and indicative of normal turnover.
2 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Exhibit S-2 is attached.
Copies of the email approving the PMA delineation and the original PMA delineation are attached.
3 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Section 3: PROJECT DESCRIPTION
The analysis presented within this report is based on the following development configuration and assumptions:
Project Name: St. Andrews Pointe Apartments Sponsor: St. Andrews Pointe Apartments LP Location: Columbia
Total Units: 150 Occupancy Type: Family Construction Type: Rehabiliation Construction Style: Townhouse Number of Stories: 2 Site Acreage: 17.184 Acres Parking: 347 spaces Income Targeting: $25,269 to $37,800 (based on 50 to 60 percent AMI)
PROPOSED UNIT CONFIGURATION STRUCTURE
# of # of Contract Utility Gross Targeting/Mix Square Feet Units Baths Rent Allowance Rent
Total Units 150
Three-Bedroom Townhouse 150 50% of Area Median Income 30 2.5 1,196 $658 $129 $787 60% of Area Median Income 120 2/2.5 1,106/1,196 $701 $129 $830
Unit Amenities: Full kitchen with refrigerator/freezer, stove with exhaust fan, and dishwasher; Window coverings; HVAC System; Patio; Wired for cable television and high-speed internet; Walk-in closets; Laundry hook-ups.
Development Amenities: Community building; Leasing/management office on site; Pool; Playground; Laundry room; Covered picnic area.
4 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Additional Assumptions: Water, sewer, and trash removal charges will be included within the rental rate. Tenant is responsible for all other utility charges. The heat source will be electric. A professional management company with experience in LIHTC rental housing will continue to operate the facility. CRS reviewed the proposed project plans provided by the sponsor. The project will not have any project-based rental assistance.
Proposed Rehabilitation Efforts: As described within the application, the rehabilitation efforts will include: Exteriors: • New siding on all buildings • New roofs on all buildings • All wooden surfaces to be repainted • New gutters and downspouts on all buildings • New coating and striping of parking areas (and repairs made when necessary) • Modernization of clubhouse and community room • New playground equipment in all play areas • Landscaping modification and enhancement where needed • New exterior signage • New mailboxes • Replacement and addition of exterior lighting • Replace windows in all units • New furnishings in the leasing office/community building • New pool furniture Interiors: • New kitchen cabinets and floor coverings in all units • New dishwashers, in-sink disposals, oven/ranges, range hoods, refrigerators, HVAC units and hot water heaters in all units • Clean all existing duct work and repair as necessary • New carpet in all units • Repaint all units (and repair of drywall where necessary) • New bathroom sinks and vanities in all units • New bathroom floors in all units • New interior doors in all units (including closet doors) • Replacement of all faucets with new low flow models • Replacement of all toilets with new low flow models
5 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Section 4: MARKET PROFILE
Site Evaluation/Characteristics The subject property is located at the end of St. Andrews Road, east of Broad River Road, within the northwest section of Columbia. The development consists of 150 townhome units, centrally located community building, pool, playgrounds, and landscaped areas throughout the site.
The site is located within Census Tract 104.07 of Richland County. The area directly surrounding the property is a combination of residential homes, commercial/light industrial outlets, and vacant land. Residential areas are found to the east and south of the site. These are primarily older single family homes in fair to good condition. To the west along St. Andrews Road are mostly commercial/light industrial facilities, which serve to isolate the subject property to a certain extent. North of the site is vacant land.
Traffic along this eastern stretch of St. Andrews Road is generally light – as no outlet is available. Beyond Broad River Road (Route 176), traffic levels increase measurably, reflecting the wide range of retail options present within the immediate area. There did not appear to be any negative land uses surrounding the subject property. Adjacent land usage is as follows:
North: Vacant land East: Single family homes South: Single family homes West: Commercial outlets along St. Andrews Road
A wide range of retail outlets are present just west of the subject property, mostly along Broad River Road and St. Andrews Road. Some of these include CVS Pharmacy, Dollar General, Kroger, Subway, Circle K, and Chick-Fil-A, all of which are within 1.5 miles of the subject. Slightly beyond that range are K-Mart and Wal-Mart. Three schools (including Columbia High School), a library, and two medical clinics are also within 1.5 miles. Many of these are within walking distance.
6 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Overall, the site characteristics can be viewed positively. The site is surrounded by commercial development in good condition. The site is easily accessible from both Broad River Road as well as St. Andrews Road. The property is readily accessible, given the local roadways within the community, as well as the Interstate access near the location.
CRS is not aware of any road or infrastructure improvements planned in the PMA. None were listed on the SCDOT website, nor were any observed during the fieldwork.
Field work was conducted by Kelly Murdock on March 5th through 8th, 2009.
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Map: Local Features/Amenities
8 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Site Photos
This photograph shows the view of the property from St. Andrews Road. Signage is located at the corner of St. Andrews Road and Broad River Road.
This photograph shows a view of the clubhouse / leasing office. Landscaping is in need of attention. Pool and playground are found in back of the building.
9 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
This photograph shows a typical building on the campus.
This photograph shows a second playground area within the back of the property. Equipment and landscaping are dated and in need of replacement.
10 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
This photograph shows the back porch areas and some landscaping. A third playground area is to the right.
Pool and patio area behind the clubhouse both are in relatively good condition.
11 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Playground and fencing behind Clubhouse.
Primary property sign – found at the intersection of St. Andrews Road and Broad River Road.
12 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Crime Statistics
The data in the following table was acquired through HUDuser’s State of the Cities Database, which reports information which is provided from the Federal Bureau of Investigation. According to this information, within the Columbia MSA (Richland and Lexington Counties) in 2000 the most common type of crime was of a larceny nature. In total, 3,286 larceny crimes were committed per 100,000 persons in 2000, impacting 3.3% of the population. In comparison, crimes in the suburbs were somewhat lower on a per population basis, with a 2.6% instance among the population.
By 2006, the crime levels (both property and violent) decreased in most categories, demonstrating a stabilizing of the community. One of the most notable increases was the number of assault crimes. Robberies in general, however, appear to be decreasing since 2000.
The existing LIHTC properties all appear to be well-maintained and the environment was inviting and seemed safe. The existing LIHTC properties do not have any specific security features beyond on-site management and good lighting. As such, the on-site management and lighting proposed for the subject should be sufficient security. No specific crime-related concerns were observed regarding the subject proposal’s location or surrounding neighborhood.
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Table 4.1: Crime Data
Columbia, SC % of % of Type of Crime MSA Population Suburbs* Population All of the following crime rates are per 100,000 population, offenses known to police
Property Crime - 2000 Burglary 828 0.8% 769 0.8% Motor Vehicle Theft 404 0.4% 333 0.3% Larceny 3,286 3.3% 2,625 2.6%
Property Crime - 2006 Burglary 827 0.8% 757 0.8% Percent Change from 2000 0.0% -1.7% Motor Vehicle Theft 373 0.4% 324 0.3% Percent Change from 2000 -7.7% -2.6% Larceny 2,943 2.9% 2,569 2.6% Percent Change from 2000 -10.4% -2.2%
Violent Crime - 2000 Murder 6 0.0% 5 0.0% Rape 38 0.0% 32 0.0% Robbery Total 214 0.2% 153 0.2% Robbery Gun 132 0.1% 93 0.1% Aggravated Assault 478 0.5% 390 0.4% Assault Gun 127 0.1% 90 0.1%
Violent Crime - 2006 Murder 8 0.0% 9 0.0% Percent Change from 2000 37.7% 83.7% Rape 37 0.0% 35 0.0% Percent Change from 2000 2.6% 9.4% Robbery Total 152 0.2% 109 0.1% Percent Change from 2000 -28.8% -28.6% Robbery Gun 89 0.1% 66 0.1% Percent Change from 2000 -33.2% -29.1% Aggravated Assault 556 0.6% 507 0.5% Percent Change from 2000 16.3% 29.8% Assault Gun 165 0.2% 136.4 0.1% Percent Change from 2000 29.9% 52.2%
SOCDS Database provided through HUDuser; data compiled from FBI crime data
14 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Primary and Secondary Market Area Delineation
The Primary Market Area (PMA), as defined for the purpose of a market study analyzing the subject project, consists of a generally oval-shaped region which encompasses the western section of Richland County and adjacent areas of Lexington County. The site is located on the western edge of the Columbia area, within St. Andrews Census Designated Place (CDP).
A visual representation of the PMA and census tracts within the PMA can be found in the maps presented below. In addition to St. Andrews and portions of Columbia, the PMA includes all or a portion of Irmo, Lexington, and West Columbia. Specifically, the PMA consists of the following Census Tracts:
Richland County: Census Tract 103.03 Census Tract 103.04 Census Tract 103.05 Census Tract 104.03 Census Tract 104.04 Census Tract 104.05 Census Tract 104.07 Census Tract 104.08 Census Tract 104.09 Lexington County: Census Tract 205.06 Census Tract 205.07 Census Tract 205.08 Census Tract 205.10 Census Tract 205.11 Census Tract 210.14 Census Tract 211.04 Census Tract 211.05 Census Tract 211.06 Census Tract 211.07 Census Tract 211.08
The established market area represents the area from which the majority of potential residents for the subject development currently reside. When defining the primary market area, the local roadway infrastructure, commuting patterns, census tract boundaries, and other existing socio-economic conditions were utilized. Specifically, the areas included in the PMA reported similar income distributions and racial composition as each other. Also, the Broad River was considered a sufficiently significant natural boundary that inclusion of the areas adjacent to the eastern bank of the river were excluded from the PMA, as only the interstates have local access across the river. As a result, the PMA includes areas within two to ten miles of the proposed building site.
15 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
St. Andrews CDP is located near several major roadways, including Interstate 20, Interstate 26, Interstate 126/US 76 (Lester Bastes Freeway), and US Highway 176 (Broad River Road). The location of these highways, as well as major local roadways such as St. Andrews Road, Piney Grove Road, and Bush River Road, ensures that the area is accessible to the remainder of the PMA.
The census tracts chosen for the PMA were selected because of their proximity to the proposed site and the similarity amongst the tracts in regard to socio-economic and income characteristics. The location of major thoroughfares and the socio-economic conditions in nearby census tracts also contributed to the PMA delineation.
16 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Map: State of South Carolina
17 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Map: Primary Market Area – By Census Tracts
18 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Economic Characteristics
It is evident that the service industry is the predominant source of employment for the area, particularly in the city. According to the 2000 Census, the majority of the area’s employment is based mainly in the services sector, representing 44% of all employment within the PMA and 45% within the CDP. Positions within the retail trade, finance, and public administration sectors are also key contributors to the local economy. Manufacturing is a somewhat minimal source of employment within the Columbia area, accounting for just eight percent of the local labor force – well below what is typically observed in other similarly-sized communities across the southern United States.
Table 4.2: Employment by Industry (2000)
St. Andrews Richland CDP PMA County Agriculture and Mining 0 70 642 Percent 0.0% 0.1% 0.4%
Construction 692 2,617 8,027 Percent 5.8% 5.2% 5.5%
Manufacturing 985 4,086 12,982 Percent 8.2% 8.2% 8.9%
Transportation and Public Utilities 459 2,367 6,175 Percent 3.8% 4.7% 4.2%
Wholesale Trade 412 1,962 4,205 Percent 3.4% 3.9% 2.9%
Retail Trade 1,468 5,920 16,187 Percent 12.2% 11.9% 11.1%
Finance, Insurance, & Real Estate 1,216 5,296 13,632 Percent 10.1% 10.6% 9.4%
Services 5,366 22,176 68,919 Percent 44.7% 44.4% 47.4%
Public Administration 1,409 5,409 14,636 Percent 11.7% 10.8% 10.1%
SOURCE: 2000 Census of Population and Housing, SF 3, U.S. Census Bureau
19 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Data regarding employment by occupation also demonstrates a significant representation of service-oriented employment throughout the market area. Based on U.S. Census information, managerial and professional employment represented 45% of the jobs within the PMA in 2000, followed by service and sale-related positions, at 41%. It is clear that traditional blue collar positions within the Columbia area are somewhat less prominent than other sizable communities.
Table 4.3: Employment by Occupation (2000)
St. Andrews Richland CDP PMA County Managerial and Professional 4,641 23,111 58,419 Percent 37.1% 44.5% 38.9%
Service and Sales 5,682 21,436 64,899 Percent 45.4% 41.2% 43.2%
Farming and Forestry 0 26 324 Percent 0.0% 0.1% 0.2%
Construction, Extraction and 866 3,249 10,725 Maintenance Percent 6.9% 6.3% 7.1%
Production, Transportation and 1,333 4,149 15,828 Material Moving Percent 10.6% 8.0% 10.5%
SOURCE: 2000 Census of Population and Housing, SF 3, U.S. Census Bureau
20 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Overall, economic conditions locally have been somewhat volatile over the past ten years, as evidenced by the fluctuation in the job market during that period. The most significant job loss occurred in 2001, in which over 6,400 jobs were lost. Last year also was somewhat disappointing from an employment standpoint, with a slight loss of 415 jobs, representing the first annual decline in employment since 2001. This resulted in an annual unemployment rate of 6.3% for 2008, the highest level over the past ten years for Richland County.
Historically, the unemployment rate for the county has been well below the state rate. As mentioned previously, for 2008 the annual unemployment rate for Richland County was 6.3%, below the state’s rate of 6.9%, but slightly above the national rate of 5.8%. Given current economic conditions, the area will continue to lose jobs and experience an increase in unemployment into 2010. This situation will cause a more significant need in the community for affordable housing options, especially as the services sector continues to represent a main source of employment for many households.
Unfortunately, economic trends will likely continue to decline before any significant improvement can be observed. The January 2009 employment report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates an unemployment rate of 8.5%, well above the figure recorded in January 2008 (5.9%). This trend will likely continue into 2010, resulting in an even greater demand for affordable housing options for all age and income segments.
21 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Figure 1: Area Employment Growth
Employment Trend Since 1998 Richland County, South Carolina 180,000
175,000
170,000
165,000
160,000
155,000 NUMBER EMPLOYED 150,000
145,000
140,000 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YEAR
Figure 2: Unemployment Rate Comparison
Unemployment Trends (1998 to Present) 8%
7%
6%
5%
4% United States
Richland County 3% State of South Carolina
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 2%
1% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 YEAR
22 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Table 4.4: Employment Trends
State of Richland County United States South Carolina Number Annual Unemployment Unemployment Unemployment Year Labor Force Employed Change Rate Rate Rate 1998 156,982 153,635 --- 2.1% 3.6% 4.5% 1999 160,718 156,670 3,035 2.5% 4.1% 4.2% 2000 163,028 157,835 1,165 3.2% 3.6% 4.0% 2001 157,978 151,389 (6,446) 4.2% 5.2% 4.7% 2002 159,320 151,753 364 4.7% 6.0% 5.8% 2003 163,261 154,065 2,312 5.6% 6.7% 6.0% 2004 168,017 157,948 3,883 6.0% 6.8% 5.5% 2005 171,632 161,417 3,469 6.0% 6.7% 5.1% 2006 176,496 166,356 4,939 5.7% 6.3% 4.6% 2007 178,614 168,822 2,466 5.5% 5.6% 4.6% 2008 179,647 168,407 (415) 6.3% 6.9% 5.8% Jan-08 178,360 167,836 -- 5.9% 6.0% Jan-09 182,325 166,749 (1,087) 8.5% 10.9%
Number Percent Change (1998-2008): 14,772 9.6% Change (1998-2003): 430 0.3% Change (2003-2008): 14,342 9.3%
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
According to information published by the Greater Columbia Chamber of Commerce, the top employers within the county are primarily healthcare-related firms, government/education entities, and other professional services. The largest employer, by far, in Columbia is Palmetto Health, employing over 7,500 persons, followed by Blue Cross/Blue Shield of South Carolina (over 5,000 employees). Very few manufacturers are present on this list, reflecting the relatively low concentration of manufacturing within the area. As can be seen below, with the exception of healthcare, local industry does not appear to be overly dependent upon a single type of employer or product.
23 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Table 4.5: Major Employers
Company Location Employees Product/Service 293 Greystone Blvd Palmetto Health 7,510 Health Care Columbia, SC 29210 2501 Faraway Dr. Blue Cross Blue Shield of SC 5,100 Insurance providers Columbia, SC 29223 1616 Richland St. Richland School District #1 5,000 Education Columbia , SC 29201 1426 Main St. SCE&G 4,000 Electric & Gas provider Columbia, SC 29201
UPS regional-scattered 3,528 Currier
Wachovia Bank, N.A. regional-scattered 3,422 Financial Services
6831 Brookfield Rd. Richland School District #2 2,500 Education Columbia, SC 29206 Branch banking & Trust 1901 College St. 2,093 Financial Services Company Columbia, SC 29201 121 Greystone Blvd. Santee Cooper 1,650 Electric & Water Utility provider Columbia, SC 29210 1737 Main St. City of Columbia - City Hall 1,630 Government Columbia, SC 29201
Bank of America regional-scattered 1,500 Financial Services
Papa John's Pizza regional-scattered 1,500 Restrauant
2020 Hampton St. Richland County 1,500 Government Columbia, SC 29202 Sisters of Charity Providence 2435 Forest Dr. 1,400 Health Care Hospitals Columbia, SC 29204 1600 Williams BellSouth 1,318 Communications Columbia, SC 29201 1429 Senate St. SC State Dept. of Education 1,100 State Department Columbia, SC 29201 5 Richland Medical Park Dr. Palmetto Health Richland 1,000 Health Care Columbia, SC 29203
Piggly Wiggly, Inc regional-scattered 1,000 Grocery retail
Westinghouse Electric Company 5801 Bluff Rd. 1,220 Utility Company Nuclear Fuel Columbia, SC 29250 Source: Greater Columbia Chamber of Commerce
As can be seen in the following map, ample employment opportunities exist within a short distance of the site. The proximity of the site to employment options enhances the viability of the subject proposal.
24 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Map: Area Employers
25 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Recent economic trends within the Columbia area have been generally positive. While this may change due to the current recessional trends underway both at the regional and national level, no sizable layoffs or closing were relayed to CRS from the Greater Columbia Chamber. Highlights of recent economic activity include:
Trane - expansion $10 million investment. Holder Properties out of Atlanta is currently building a 17 story office building expected to be completed in 2010, representing a $30 million investment; Wachovia/Wells Fargo relocating to downtown, with a $10 million investment; An $8 million streetscape project, two blocks in the downtown area; Completion of a hydrogen fueling station - $1.3 million investment within The Vista; The University of South Carolina just opened a new baseball stadium, also within The Vista. Innovista (a research & development department through USC) just opened a research complex near campus that will focus on biomedical research and alternative fuels.
Commuting Patterns
Commuting patterns between Richland County and the adjacent counties has been analyzed utilizing data from the 2000 U.S. Census. In total, 129,047 persons reside and work in Richland County. When reviewing the workforce which resides in Richland County, 18,860 persons commuted to Lexington County in 2000, representing the largest outward flow of workers from Richland County.
It is also noteworthy to examine which of the adjacent counties provides the greatest number of employees to the Richland County employment base. In 2000, 44,237 persons resided in Lexington County but worked within Richland County – an extremely significant influx of workers. As can be seen, the majority of the workforce lives and works within Richland County, as opposed to commuting elsewhere for employment.
26 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Map: Commuting Patterns (2000)
27 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Wages by Occupation
Data regarding employment by occupation demonstrates the variety of employment opportunities available throughout Richland County. According to data from the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, positions within the trade, transportation and utilities segment was the most common source of employment in Richland County; 20.4% of workers were employed in that field in 2006. Professional and business services jobs represented a slightly smaller portion of the employment base in 2006 at 18.4 percent of the workforce, followed by education and health services jobs (16.3% as of 2006). Leisure and hospitality positions and financial activities jobs both represented at least twelve percent of the job market in 2006. Several industries experienced growth in number and proportion from 2001 to 2006, with a notable gain in overall employment during that period.
Wage levels in the area were quite varied. Information-related positions had a median annual wage level of $59,212 in 2006 (which was a sizable increase from 2001). Conversely, the leisure and hospitality sector reported a median annual wage in 2006 of just $12,790.
28 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Table 4.6: Wages by Occupation – 2001 to 2006
2001 2006 Number Annual Avg. Number Annual Avg. Employed Percent Wage Employed Percent Wage Construction 8,823 5.8%$ 32,229 9,594 6.0%$ 39,717 Education and Health Services 23,024 15.2%$ 34,021 25,920 16.3%$ 38,727 Financial Activities 19,613 12.9%$ 38,803 19,785 12.4%$ 47,269 Information 5,634 3.7%$ 46,225 4,988 3.1%$ 59,212 Leisure and Hospitality 18,028 11.9%$ 10,993 19,189 12.1%$ 12,790 Manufacturing 11,967 7.9%$ 38,726 11,375 7.1%$ 48,443 Natural Resources and Mining 445 0.3%$ 31,994 398 0.3%$ 41,812 Other Services 6,181 4.1%$ 21,838 6,082 3.8%$ 26,439 Professional and Business Services 26,225 17.3%$ 27,208 29,282 18.4%$ 35,555 Trade, Transportation, and Utilities 31,608 20.9%$ 28,929 32,494 20.4%$ 33,952
Total 151,548 100% 159,107 100%
SOURCE: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Figure 3: Employment by Industry – 2001 to 2006
Richland County Trade, Transportation, and Utilities Professional and Business Services Other Services Natural Resources and Mining Manufacturing Leisure and Hospitality Information Financial Activities 2001 Education and Health Services 2006 Construction
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
29 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Section 5: COMMUNITY DEMOGRAPHIC DATA Population Trends Overall population patterns within the following table indicate ongoing growth across the PMA. The PMA’s population is projected to total 109,467 persons in 2011, following an increase of more than 14% during the prior decade. The CDP is also expected to report gains, but at a somewhat more modest level (2.9% growth by 2011). Across all of Richland County the 2011 population is projected to increase significantly, by approximately 19% from 2000 figures. Despite the current recessionary trends, long term population gains should be anticipated into the next decade. This growth should be reflected by ongoing demand for various housing options such as the subject property.
Table 5.1: Population Trends (2000 to 2011)
St. Andrews Richland CDP PMA County 2000 Population 21,814 98,200 320,677 Percent Change (1990-2000) -15.1% 14.3% 12.2% Average Annual Change (1990 to 2000) -1.6% 1.3% 1.2%
2008 Population Estimate 22,280 106,394 365,238 Percent Change (from 2000) 2.1% 8.3% 13.9% Average Annual Change (2000 to 2008) 0.3% 1.2% 1.9%
2011 Population Forecast 22,455 109,467 381,949 Percent Change (from 2000) 2.9% 11.5% 19.1% Average Annual Change (2000 to 2011) 0.3% 1.1% 1.8%
SOURCE: 1990-2000 Census of Population and Housing, STF 1A/SF1, U.S. Census Bureau; ESRI Business Analyst.
30 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Age Distribution
In 2000, persons between the ages of 20 and 44 represented the largest age cohort in the PMA. Children, or persons less than 20 years of age, represented the second largest group. From 2000 to 2011, it is expected that all four age cohorts will experience some degree of growth as the population ages. Specifically, persons less than 20 will decrease to roughly 27,000 (an average annual gain of 0.3%). Persons aged 20 to 44 are expected to reach roughly 43,700 in number (an average annual decrease of less than one percent). On the other hand, the population aged 45 years or older is expected to increase substantially (a rate of over 34% from 2000 totals).
31 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Table 5.2: Age Distribution (2000 to 2011)
St. Andrews Richland CDP PMA County Age Less than 20 - 2000 5,244 26,198 91,630 Percent of total 2000 population 24.0% 26.7% 28.6%
Age Between 20 and 44 - 2000 10,864 42,251 131,573 Percent of total 2000 population 49.8% 43.0% 41.0%
Age Between 45 and 64 - 2000 3,837 21,369 65,999 Percent of total 2000 population 17.6% 21.8% 20.6%
Age 65 and Over - 2000 1,869 8,382 31,475 Percent of total 2000 population 8.6% 8.5% 9.8%
Age Less than 20 - 2008 5,053 26,322 99,737 Percent of total 2008 population 22.7% 24.7% 27.3% Percent change (2000 to 2008) -3.6% 0.5% 8.8% Average Annual Change (2000 to 2008) -0.5% 0.1% 1.2%
Age Between 20 and 44 - 2008 10,610 42,149 139,404 Percent of total 2008 population 47.6% 39.6% 38.2% Percent change (2000 to 2008) -2.3% -0.2% 6.0% Average Annual Change (2000 to 2008) -0.3% 0.0% 0.8%
Age Between 45 and 64 - 2008 4,408 26,738 88,027 Percent of total 2008 population 19.8% 25.1% 24.1% Percent change (2000 to 2008) 14.9% 25.1% 33.4% Average Annual Change (2000 to 2008) 2.0% 3.3% 4.2%
Age 65 and Over - 2008 1,810 10,351 37,256 Percent of total 2008 population 8.1% 9.7% 10.2% Percent change (2000 to 2008) -3.2% 23.5% 18.4% Average Annual Change (2000 to 2008) -0.5% 3.1% 2.4%
Age Less than 20 - 2011 4,919 26,866 102,677 Percent of total 2011 population 21.9% 24.5% 26.9% Percent change (2000 to 2011) -6.2% 2.5% 12.1% Average Annual Change (2000 to 2011) -0.6% 0.3% 1.1%
Age Between 20 and 44 - 2011 11,015 43,696 147,155 Percent of total 2011 population 49.1% 39.9% 38.5% Percent change (2000 to 2011) 1.4% 3.4% 11.8% Average Annual Change (2000 to 2011) 0.1% 0.3% 1.1%
Age Between 45 and 64 - 2011 4,726 28,702 98,600 Percent of total 2011 population 21.0% 26.2% 25.8% Percent change (2000 to 2011) 23.2% 34.3% 49.4% Average Annual Change (2000 to 2011) 2.1% 3.0% 4.1%
Age 65 and Over - 2011 1,973 12,131 42,648 Percent of total 2011 population 8.8% 11.1% 11.2% Percent change (2000 to 2011) 5.6% 44.7% 35.5% Average Annual Change (2000 to 2011) 0.5% 3.8% 3.1%
SOURCE: 2000 Census of Population and Housing, STF 1A/SF1, U.S. Census Bureau; ESRI Business Analyst.
32 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
As is frequently observed, average household sizes in the PMA and the surrounding area have been shrinking since 1990. The PMA and Richland County feature generally smaller household sizes as compared to the state as a whole. Within the PMA, household sizes are expected to shrink further by 2011, resulting in an average household size of 2.31 persons. Trends related to the household sizes in the CDP are anticipated to indicate smaller household sizes as well, reaching less than two persons per household by 2011. A greater concentration of apartment units within the CDP helps to explain the smaller average household size. This will most likely continue for the foreseeable future.
Table 5.3: Average Household Size (2000 to 2011)
St. Andrews Richland CDP PMA County 2000 Average Household Size 2.07 2.37 2.44 Percent Change (1990-2000) -1.0% -5.3% -4.6%
2008 Average Household Size Estimate 2.00 2.32 2.39 Percent Change (2000-2008) -3.3% -2.0% -1.9%
2011 Average Household Size Forecast 1.98 2.31 2.38 Percent Change (2000-2011) -4.5% -2.6% -2.4%
SOURCE: 1990-2000 Census of Population and Housing, STF 1A/SF1, U.S. Census Bureau; ESRI Business Analyst.
33 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Household Trends Household trends are similar to the population trends previously discussed, reflecting positive trends throughout the decade. Current estimates for the PMA indicate a household total of 43,319 units, an increase of 11% from 2000. The increases in the PMA are expected to continue through 2011, with the household count reaching 44,941 households. The household count in the CDP is expected to grow as well, with an eight percent increase by 2011 from 2000 figures.
Table 5.4: Household Trends (2000 to 2011)
St. Andrews Richland CDP PMA County 2000 Households 10,497 38,994 120,101 Percent Change (1990-2000) -1.9% 20.5% 18.2% Average Annual Change (1990 to 2000) -0.2% 1.9% 1.7%
2008 Household Estimate 11,089 43,319 141,038 Percent Change (2000-2008) 5.6% 11.1% 17.4% Average Annual Change (2000 to 2008) 0.8% 1.5% 2.3%
2011 Household Forecast 11,311 44,941 148,890 Percent Change (2000-2011) 7.8% 15.3% 24.0% Average Annual Change (2000 to 2011) 0.7% 1.4% 2.2%
SOURCE: 1990-2000 Census of Population and Housing, STF 1A/SF1, U.S. Census Bureau; ESRI Business Analyst.
34 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
The number of renter-occupied households across Richland County indicates an acceptance of the renter lifestyle. The PMA contained a total of 14,935 renter-occupied units in 2000, which represented roughly 38 percent of all households within the area. A significantly larger proportion of residents rented their homes within the CDP (64%, as of 2000). At the same time, renter propensity across the county was essentially the same as the PMA. No significant shift in the percentage of renters is anticipated, based on recent construction trends and the current economic climate.
Table 5.5: Renter Household Trends (1990 to 2000)
St. Andrews Richland CDP PMA County 1990 Renter-Occupied Households 6,820 12,735 41,433 Percent of total 1990 households 63.8% 39.4% 40.8%
2000 Renter-Occupied Households 6,742 14,935 46,344 Percent of total 2000 households 64.2% 38.3% 38.6% Percent change (1990 to 2000) -1.1% 17.3% 11.9% Average Annual Change (1990 to 2000) -0.1% 1.6% 1.1%
SOURCE: 1990 and 2000 Census of Population and Housing, STF 1A/SF1, U.S. Census Bureau; CRS
35 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Median Gross Rent and Unit Size
Rental rates in the PMA have historically on average trended higher than both the CDP and countywide since at least 1990. During the 1990s, the PMA experienced growth of 28% percent in the median gross rent, equating to an average annual increase of 2.5%.
Table 5.6: Median Gross Rent (1990 to 2000)
St. Andrews Richland CDP PMA County 1990 Median Gross Rent $463 $490 $429
2000 Median Gross Rent $584 $626 $570 Total percent change (1990 to 2000) 26.1% 27.9% 32.9% Annual percent change (1990 to 2000) 2.3% 2.5% 2.9%
SOURCE: 1990 and 2000 Census of Population and Housing, STF3/SF3, U.S. Census Bureau
Typical renter households in the PMA and the other two geographic areas are comparable in terms of size. In the PMA, 43% of the renter households consisted of just one person in 2000. Further, 30% of the renter households were comprised of two persons, 23% of the renter households had three or four members, and five percent had five or more persons. It is likely that the subject proposal is one of the few sources of larger-family rental units within the marketplace. Table 5.7: Rental Unit Size Distribution (2000)
St. Andrews Richland CDP PMA County One Person 3,131 6,407 18,052 Percent of total renter households 46.4% 42.9% 39.0%
Two Persons 1,982 4,479 13,127 Percent of total renter households 29.4% 30.0% 28.3%
Three or Four Persons 1,384 3,368 11,820 Percent of total renter households 20.5% 22.6% 25.5%
Five or More Person 245 681 3,345 Percent of total renter households 3.6% 4.6% 7.2%
SOURCE: 1990 and 2000 Census of Population and Housing, STF1/SF1, U.S. Census Bureau
36 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Group Quarters
In 2000, there were 5,847 persons residing in group quarters in the PMA. Of those, just 100 persons were within a group-quarters living arrangement in the CDP. The group quarters in Richland County can be attributed primarily to military personnel, as well as educational dormitories within the county boundaries.
Table 5.8: Group Quarters (1990 to 2000)
St. Andrews Richland CDP PMA County 1990 Group Quarters 3,340 4,991 26,091
2000 Group Quarters 100 5,847 28,012
SOURCE: 1990 and 2000 Census of Population and Housing, STF1/SF1, U.S. Census Bureau
37 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Section 6: HOUSEHOLD INCOME TRENDS Income Trends According to Census data and ESRI projections, median household income levels throughout Richland County have experienced steady gains since 1989. Overall, incomes found within the market area are generally higher than county figures, and significantly higher than found within the CDP. In 1999, the median household income within the PMA was recorded at $48,180, which was 39% greater than the CDP median. The median income within the PMA increased by 30% during the prior decade (an average annual increase of 2.7%).
According to ESRI, income appreciation within the PMA is expected to be very similar to that observed during the prior decade. It is projected that incomes within the PMA will increase 2.7% on an average annual basis between 1999 and 2011 to $64,823.
Table 6.1: Median Household Incomes (1999 to 2011)
St. Andrews Richland CDP PMA County 1999 Median Household Income $34,551 $48,180 $39,961 Total percent change (1989 to 1999) 19.2% 30.3% 38.5% Annual percent change (1989 to 1999) 1.8% 2.7% 3.3%
2008 Estimated Median Income $40,728 $60,284 $52,799 Total percent change (1999 to 2008) 17.9% 25.1% 32.1% Annual percent change (1999 to 2008) 2.1% 2.8% 3.5%
2011 Estimated Median Income $43,045 $64,823 $57,613 Total percent change (1999 to 2011) 24.6% 34.5% 44.2% Annual percent change (1999 to 2011) 2.0% 2.7% 3.4%
SOURCE: 1990 and 2000 Census of Population and Housing, U.S. Census Bureau; ESRI Business Analyst.
38 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Income-Qualified Population The LIHTC income range for the proposed facility is $25,259 to $37,800 (in current dollars). To compare this range with the latest Census information available on household income by tenure, dollar values from 1999 were inflated to market-entry dollars using the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index. Based on this data, this income range accounts for approximately 9.5% of the PMA's total owner-occupied household number and 21.3% of the renter-occupied household count.
Table 6.2: Household Income by Tenure – PMA (2008)
Total Owner Renter Households Households Households Less than $6,271 1,185 361 824 Percent of 2008 Households 2.7% 1.3% 5.0%
$6,272 to $12,541 1,619 456 1,164 Percent of 2008 Households 3.7% 1.7% 7.0%
$12,542 to $18,812 1,593 474 1,119 Percent of 2008 Households 3.7% 1.8% 6.7%
$18,813 to $25,083 2,275 841 1,434 Percent of 2008 Households 5.2% 3.1% 8.6%
$25,084 to $31,354 3,038 1,148 1,890 Percent of 2008 Households 7.0% 4.3% 11.4%
$31,355 to $43,895 5,728 2,567 3,161 Percent of 2008 Households 13.2% 9.6% 19.1%
$43,896 to $62,708 7,854 4,580 3,274 Percent of 2008 Households 18.1% 17.1% 19.7%
$62,709 to $94,063 9,636 7,073 2,563 Percent of 2008 Households 22.3% 26.5% 15.4%
$94,064 and Over 10,391 9,228 1,162 Percent of 2008 Households 24.0% 34.5% 7.0%
SOURCE: 2000 Census of Population and Housing, SF3 , U.S. Census Bureau; BLS Consumer Price Index
39 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Table 6.3: Household Income by Tenure – St. Andrews CDP (2008)
Total Owner Renter Households Households Households Less than $6,271 389 95 294 Percent of 2008 Households 3.5% 2.4% 4.1%
$6,272 to $12,541 640 95 545 Percent of 2008 Households 5.8% 2.4% 7.7%
$12,542 to $18,812 587 129 458 Percent of 2008 Households 5.3% 3.3% 6.4%
$18,813 to $25,083 843 167 676 Percent of 2008 Households 7.6% 4.2% 9.5%
$25,084 to $31,354 1,167 240 927 Percent of 2008 Households 10.5% 6.0% 13.0%
$31,355 to $43,895 1,975 580 1,395 Percent of 2008 Households 17.8% 14.6% 19.6%
$43,896 to $62,708 2,323 833 1,490 Percent of 2008 Households 20.9% 21.0% 20.9%
$62,709 to $94,063 1,929 1,023 905 Percent of 2008 Households 17.4% 25.8% 12.7%
$94,064 and Over 1,237 805 432 Percent of 2008 Households 11.2% 20.3% 6.1%
SOURCE: 2000 Census of Population and Housing, SF3 , U.S. Census Bureau; BLS Consumer Price Index
40 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Table 6.4: Household Income by Tenure – Richland County (2008)
Total Owner Renter Households Households Households Less than $6,271 6,541 2,066 4,476 Percent of 2008 Households 4.6% 2.4% 8.2%
$6,272 to $12,541 8,117 2,621 5,496 Percent of 2008 Households 5.8% 3.0% 10.1%
$12,542 to $18,812 8,630 3,171 5,460 Percent of 2008 Households 6.1% 3.7% 10.0%
$18,813 to $25,083 9,249 3,720 5,529 Percent of 2008 Households 6.6% 4.3% 10.2%
$25,084 to $31,354 9,673 4,146 5,527 Percent of 2008 Households 6.9% 4.8% 10.2%
$31,355 to $43,895 19,708 10,147 9,561 Percent of 2008 Households 14.0% 11.7% 17.6%
$43,896 to $62,708 24,273 15,406 8,868 Percent of 2008 Households 17.2% 17.8% 16.3%
$62,709 to $94,063 26,266 20,118 6,148 Percent of 2008 Households 18.6% 23.2% 11.3%
$94,064 and Over 28,580 25,220 3,360 Percent of 2008 Households 20.3% 29.1% 6.2%
SOURCE: 2000 Census of Population and Housing, SF3 , U.S. Census Bureau; BLS Consumer Price Index
41 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
ESRI forecasts indicate a sufficient segment of the PMA’s population will have incomes within the range required for eligibility for the subject proposal in the future. In current dollars, approximately 12.1% of all households will have incomes that fall into the required range of income-eligibility in 2011.
Table 6.5: Future Household Income Distribution (2011) - PMA
St. Andrews Richland CDP PMA County Less than $15,000 1,415 3,291 16,684 Percent of 2014 Households 12.4% 7.2% 10.8%
$15,000 to $24,999 1,208 2,630 12,359 Percent of 2014 Households 10.5% 5.7% 8.0%
$25,000 to $34,999 1,646 3,812 13,241 Percent of 2014 Households 14.4% 8.3% 8.6%
$35,000 to $49,999 2,355 6,239 21,585 Percent of 2014 Households 20.6% 13.6% 14.0%
$50,000 to $74,999 2,594 9,621 32,430 Percent of 2014 Households 22.6% 20.9% 21.0%
$75,000 to $99,999 1,488 8,634 25,161 Percent of 2014 Households 13.0% 18.8% 16.3%
$100,000 to $149,999 566 7,173 18,398 Percent of 2014 Households 4.9% 15.6% 11.9%
$150,000 or More 185 4,621 14,266 Percent of 2014 Households 1.6% 10.0% 9.3%
SOURCE: ESRI Business Analyst
42 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Section 7: DEMAND ANALYSIS
Demand for Tax Credit Rental Units Overall population and household projections are illustrated in the following tables, along with demand forecasts for the subject proposal across all applicable income bands and bedroom types. Based on South Carolina State Housing Finance and Development Authority requirements, demand estimates are measured from three key sources: household growth, substandard housing, and rent-overburdened households.
All demand sources will be income-qualified, based on the targeting plan of the subject proposal and current LIHTC income restrictions based on information as published by HUD. For the subject proposal, demand estimates will be calculated for two income levels: 50 percent of AMI and 60 percent of AMI. Calculations will be based on the starting rental rate, a 35 percent rent-to-income ratio, and an income ceiling of $37,800 (the 4½-person income limit at 60 percent AMI for Richland County). As a result, the LIHTC income-eligibility range for the subject proposal is $25,269 to $37,800.
By applying the income-qualified range and 2008 household forecasts to the current-year household income distribution by tenure (adjusted from 2000 data based on the Labor Statistics’ Consumer Price Index), the number of income-qualified households can be calculated. As a result, approximately 21 percent of all renter households within the PMA are estimated to fall within the stated LIHTC qualified income range.
Based on U.S. Census data and projections from ESRI, a total of 577 more renter households are estimated between 2008 and 2011. By applying the income-qualified percentage, 123 units of demand can be estimated from new household growth.
Using U.S. Census data on substandard rental housing, it is estimated that roughly 4.8% of all renter households within the PMA could be considered substandard, either by overcrowding (a greater than 1-to-1 ratio of persons to rooms) or incomplete plumbing facilities (a unit that lacks at least a sink, bathtub, or toilet). Applying this percentage, along with the renter and income-qualified percentages, to the number of households present in 2008 (the base year utilized within the demand calculations), a total demand resulting from substandard units is calculated at 170 units.
43 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Potential demand for the subject proposal may also arise from those households experiencing rent-overburden, defined by households paying greater than 40 percent of monthly income for rent. Excluding owner-occupied units, an estimate of market potential for the subject proposal based on rent-overburdened households paying between 40 percent and 45 percent of monthly income for rent can be determined. A ceiling of 45 percent rent-to-income ratio is utilized to rationalize management decisions on the ability to pay rent, as well as insert a level of conservatism within the calculations. This same range has been applied to all income bands, to avoid duplication of demand sources within the total demand sum.
Using the subject proposal’s beginning rental rate and utilizing the above-mentioned affordability range, the percentage of renter households within this overburdened range is estimated at 4.1%. Applying this rate to the number of renter households in 2008 yields a total demand of 679 additional LIHTC units as a result of rent-overburden.
No LIHTC properties within the defined PMA have received an allocation since 2008. Combining all of these factors results in an overall demand estimate of 972 units in 2011. Calculations by individual income targeting are also provided utilizing the same methodology. The calculation for demand by bedroom type is not included, as all of the units at the subject property are the same size, which would yield the same results as the AMI demand totals.
No adverse impact to the existing housing stock is expected as a result of the renovation of the subject property.
44 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Table 7.1: Demand Calculation by Income Targeting (2011)
2008 Total Occupied Households 43,010 2008 Owner-Occupied Households 26,537 2008 Renter-Occupied Households 16,473
50% 60% Total AMI AMI LIHTC QUALIFIED-INCOME RANGE (unduplicated) Minimum Annual Income $25,269 $29,000 $25,269 Maximum Annual Income $29,000 $37,800 $37,800
DEMAND FROM NEW HOUSEHOLD GROWTH Renter Household Growth, 2008-2011 577 577 577 Renter Households With Four or More Persons, 2000 1,870 1,870 1,870 Percent Income Qualified Renter Households 7.0% 14.2% 21.3% Total Demand From New Households 41 82 123
DEMAND FROM EXISTING HOUSEHOLDS Percent of Renters in Substandard Housing 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% Percent Income Qualified Renter Households 7.0% 14.2% 21.3% Total Demand From Substandard Renter Households 56 114 170
Percent of Renters Rent-Overburdened 1.4% 2.8% 4.1% Total Demand From Overburdened Renter Households 224 454 679
Total Demand From Existing Households 281 568 849
TOTAL DEMAND 321 650 972
LESS: Total Comparable Units Placed in Service Since 2008 00 0 LESS: Total Comparable Units Proposed/Under Construction 00 0
TOTAL NET DEMAND 321 650 972
PROPOSED NUMBER OF UNITS 30 120 150
CAPTURE RATE 9.3% 18.5% 15.4%
Note: Totals may not sum due to rounding
SOURCE: 1990/2000 U.S. Census of Population and Housing, U.S. Census Bureau 2001 American Housing Survey, U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development ESRI Business Analyst
45 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Capture and Absorption Rates
From the demand calculations, capture rates provide an indication of the percentage of annual income-qualified demand necessary for the subject property. Lower capture rates indicate generally deeper markets, thus reducing risk and hastening potential absorption periods.
Overall, a capture rate of 15.4 percent was determined based on the demand calculation (including renter household growth, substandard units, overburdened rental housing potential, and excluding LIHTC activity since 2008), providing an indication of the subject proposal’s market depth within the PMA. However, this assumes a complete re-absorption of the property. Since no displacement is planned as part of the renovations, and all existing tenants are income- qualified for affordable rental housing, the true capture rate for this development is 1.0%, reflecting the current vacancy rate (ten units, as of March 2009).
An absorption rate of six units per month was conservatively calculated, resulting in an overall absorption of less than two months, based on current occupancy levels. The absorption of the property would represent normal turnover within a stable rental market.
46 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Section 8: SUPPLY ANALYSIS
Housing Stock Composition
Overall, Richland County has a quite diverse housing stock, with a mixture of single- family homes, multi-family units, and mobile homes. Within the PMA, approximately 63% of all households were single-family dwellings, 33% were in multi-family structures (apartments or condominiums), and four percent were mobile homes. In comparison, the CDP contains a much higher percentage of multi-family units and a much smaller concentration of single family alternatives.
Table 8.1: Housing Stock Composition (2000)
St. Andrews Richland CDP PMA County Single-Family 4,080 24,652 79,850 Percent of total units 38.5% 63.2% 66.5%
Multi-Family 6,361 12,900 32,682 Percent of total units 60.0% 33.1% 27.2%
2 to 4 units 1,504 2,811 11,195 Percent of total units 14.2% 7.2% 9.3%
5 or more units 4,857 10,089 21,487 Percent of total units 45.8% 25.9% 17.9%
Mobile Homes - Total 163 1,441 7,530 Percent of total units 1.5% 3.7% 6.3%
Other 0 16 39 Percent of total units 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
SOURCE: 2000 Census of Population and Housing, SF3, U.S. Census Bureau
47 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Substandard Housing
In 2000, 4.8% of the renter households in the PMA were considered substandard. Homes are considered substandard if they meet one of two criteria: the lack of complete plumbing or over-crowding. This calculation does not take into consideration homes which are in poor condition but have plumbing. During the fieldwork, a number of homes were observed which would fit into this category. Many of these residents may also be interested in moving into a modern housing option, but are not considered in the calculation of demand.
Table 8.2: Substandard Housing (2000)
St. Andrews Richland CDP PMA County 2000 Total Owner Households 3,807 24,094 73,759 Number Lacking Complete Plumbing Facilities 17 53 213 Percent Lacking 0.4% 0.2% 0.3%
Number of Over-crowded Units 45 145 1,233 Percent Over-crowded 1.2% 0.6% 1.7%
Total Owner Substandard Units 62 198 1,439 Percent Owner Substandard 1.6% 0.8% 2.0%
2000 Total Renter Households 6,797 14,915 46,342 Number Lacking Complete Plumbing Facilities 52 61 394 Percent Lacking 0.8% 0.4% 0.9%
Number of Over-crowded Units 409 662 2,736 Percent Over-crowded 6.0% 4.4% 5.9%
Total Renter Substandard Units 461 723 3,079 Percent Renter Substandard 6.8% 4.8% 6.6%
SOURCE: 2000 Census of Population and Housing, SF3, U.S. Census Bureau
48 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Local Rental Market Characteristics
A survey of existing rental projects within the PMA was completed by CRS in March, 2009. A total of 37 open rental developments within the area were utilized in our housing survey. The survey was restricted to those developments with three-bedroom units. These developments were contacted and questioned for information such as current rental rates, amenities, and vacancy levels. General survey results for the overall rental market are described below and are presented on the following pages, providing an indication of available rental options and overall market conditions throughout the market area. Properties which would not participate are excluded from the following discussion.
Of the developments contacted, a total of 6,895 units were reviewed, with the majority containing two bedrooms. Among those rental facilities providing unit mix information during the survey, less than one percent were efficiency/studio units, 24% were one-bedroom units, 55% were two-bedroom units, 19% were three-bedroom units, and two percent were four-bedroom units. The average year of construction for the facilities was 1982 – averaging roughly 27 years old, a somewhat aged rental market. Nineteen of the developments contacted were constructed prior to 1980; three properties were constructed within this decade. In total, 30 of the properties were conventionally-financed, three were built through the LIHTC program, and four of the properties are fully-subsidized.
The overall occupancy rate was calculated to be 92.1%, based on information provided by leasing agents. Among the market rate developments, an occupancy rate of 91.4% was calculated. For the three LIHTC developments, the overall occupancy level was superior, at 95.8%. The subsidized developments are 100% occupied.
Second and fourth quarter 2008 vacancy rates for LIHTC properties as reported by SCSHFDA were similar to those stated in this report, with the exception of one development – Columbiana Ridge. The CRS survey results indicated an occupancy level of 94.5% for March 2009, while the Second Quarter 2008 level (69.4%) and the Fourth Quarter level (55.6%) are significantly lower. Prior surveys of this development by CRS indicated a range of occupancy levels (from 88.3% in 2002, 94.4% in 2003, and 91.1% in 2006), but nothing as low as reported to SCSHFDA. Information was collected and forwarded directly from the management agent to CRS, so it could be assumed that the development has recovered somewhat from the 4Q 2008 occupancy rate.
49 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Detailed results from the survey of area rental developments are illustrated in tables on the following pages. Among all developments surveyed, the average rent for a three-bedroom unit was calculated at $807 per month with an average size of 1,206 square feet, resulting in an average rent per square foot ratio of $0.67. Among the LIHTC properties, the average rent for a three-bedroom unit was calculated at $705 per month with an average size of 1,212 square feet, resulting in an average rent per square foot ratio of $0.58. These figures are skewed downward somewhat due to rent and income targeting, indicating a degree of affordability present within the LIHTC segment.
As can be seen, the subject’s property’s post-rehab rental rates and rent per square foot ratios are quite competitive with market averages. Based on these cost figures (actual street rents and rent-per-square foot ratios) the development, upon completion of renovations, appears to be property priced within the marketplace. From a pure value standpoint, the existing housing stock should not be negatively impacted by the construction of the subject.
Overall, the most common amenities found within the market include central air- conditioning, individual entries, playgrounds, and mini-blinds, which are available at a majority of the developments. Other common amenities among the LIHTC developments include coat closets, dishwashers, garbage disposals, laundry hook-ups, exercise rooms, a coin-operated laundry, and patios/balconies. The subject proposal’s amenities are in-line with newer rental options (regardless of financing), and are essentially identical to other LIHTC developments within the community.
As previously mentioned, three properties within the PMA were developed utilizing tax credits and share the same essential target market characteristics. Excluding the subject property, the remaining two developments were deemed most comparable to the subject proposal. One is Columbiana Ridge, a 180-unit development constructed in 1995. The development features 20 two-bedroom units, 64 three-bedroom units, and 96 four-bedroom units (the only four-bedroom units within the survey). All but eight of the units are targeted at 50% AMI and 60% AMI (the remaining eight are market rate). Fifty residents currently utilize portable Section 8 vouchers. None of the units have project-based rental assistance. Most of the vacancies within the development were within the three bedroom units, but the occupancy level for those units (91%, according to our survey) was significantly weaker than the balance of the marketplace.
50 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
The other comparable development, Palmetto Pointe, was constructed in 1996. It also consists of 180 units (100 two-bedrooms and 80 three-bedrooms). All rents are restricted at the 60% AMI level. The development is currently 98% occupied, with all vacancies within the three-bedroom segment (95% occupancy for that unit type). Prior surveys by CRS indicate this development has historically remained at or near full occupancy.
The subject will continue to offer a similar product at a comparable price to the existing housing. With no displacement planned, no market-related concerns are present as a result of the planned rehabilitation.
According to the local planning departments, there are no directly similar rental housing options in the pipeline or under construction.
51 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Table 8.3: Rental Housing Survey
One- Two- Three- Four- Heat Electric Occupancy Project Name Year Total Units Eff. Heat Type Waiting List Length bedroom bedroom bedroom bedroom Included Included Rate ASHLAND COMMONS 1971 112 16 88 8 No ELE No 96% NO ASHTON, THE 1970 220 64 140 16 No ELE No 97% NO BENT TREE APTS 1988 232 84 132 16 No GAS No 93% NO BROAD RIVER TRACE APARTMENTS 1998 243 85 121 37 No ELE No 96% NO CARRIAGE HOUSE 1980 124 23 72 29 No ELE No 100% YES 1 YEAR CENTURY HEIGHTS AT LAKE MURRAY 2003 230 94 100 36 No ELE No 97% NO CHURCHHILL AT ST ANDREWS 1987 132 16 76 40 No ELE No 97% NO COLONY EAST APTS 1972 104 8 80 16 No ELE No 90% NO COLUMBIANA RIDGE APTS 1995 180 20 64 96 No ELE No 96% NO COPPERFIELD APTS, THE 1978 120 24 82 14 No ELE No 93% NO COUNTRY WALK APARTMETNS 1974 200 24 120 56 No ELE No 96% NO CREEKSIDE PLACE 1986 104 40 24 40 No GAS No 89% NO CRESTMONT APT HOMES 2003 250 80 146 24 No ELE No 92% NO CYPRESS RUN APARTMENTS 1996 204 18 63 99 24 No ELE No 82% NO FARRINGTON APTS, THE 1972 158 48 66 44 No ELE No 91% NO GREEN OAKS APARTMENTS 1973 152 32 104 16 No ELE No 77% NO HUNTER'S RIDGE 1972 205 66 126 13 No ELE No 80% NO IRMO VILLAGE APTS 1980 80 32 40 8 No ELE No 100% YES LONG LAKES AT HARBISON 1978 124 12 88 24 No ELE No 90% NO LANDMARK APARTMENTS 1972 336 64 208 64 No ELE No 75% NO LEXINGTON PLACE APARTMENTS 1970 227 48 149 30 No ELE No 99% NO LULLWATER AT SALUNDA POINTE 2007 280 No ELE No 98% NO PACES BROOK 1989 260 130 82 48 No ELE No 93% NO PALMETTO POINTE 1996 180 100 80 No ELE No 98% NO RAINTREE APARTMENTS COLUMBIA 1973 138 32 100 6 No ELE No 87% NO RESERVE AT RIVER WALK 1992 220 96 104 20 No ELE No 98% NO RICHLAND TERRACE 1973 282 72 132 78 No ELE No 97% YES 1-2 MONTHS RIVER OAKS APARTMENTS COLUMBIA 1978 100 26 31 43 No ELE No 100% YES 6-8 MONTHS ST ANDREWS APTS 1973 224 40 152 32 No ELE No 95% NO ST ANDREWS POINTE APTS 1994 150 150 No ELE No 93% NO ST ANDREWS TERRACE 1981 25 5 15 5 No ELE No 100% YES LONG STONE RIDGE APTS 1971 187 44 135 8 No ELE No 74% NO THREE RIVERS APARTMENTS COLUMB 1972 108 18 81 9 No ELE No 92% YES SHORT WELLSPRING APARTMENTS 1986 232 24 184 24 No ELE No 96% NO WESTWINDS APTS 1981 100 20 64 16 No ELE No 95% YES SHORT WILLOW CREEK APTS 1972 364 96 216 52 No ELE No 96% NO WOODLAND VILLAGE APARTMENTS 1974 308 No ELE No 88% NO
OVERALL 37 Developments Totals and Averages 1982 6,895 18 1,526 3,477 1,190 96 92.1% 0% 24% 55% 19% 2%
MARKET RATE ONLY 30 Developments Totals and Averages 1981 6,056 18 1,440 3,199 811 91.4% 0% 26% 59% 15%
LIHTC ONLY 3 Developments Totals and Averages 1995 510 120 294 96 95.8% 24% 58% 19%
SUBSIDIZED ONLY 4 Developments Totals and Averages 1980 329 86 158 85 100.0% 26% 48% 26%
52 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Table 8.4: Rent Range for 3 Bedrooms
Low High Low Rent High Rent Project Name Program SQFT SQFT Rent per Square Foot 3BR 3BR 3BR 3BR ASHLAND COMMONS CONV. $680 $690 1,003 1,003 $0.68 $0.69 ASHTON, THE CONV. $750 1,240 $0.60 BENT TREE APTS CONV. $785 $830 1,125 1,125 $0.70 $0.74 BROAD RIVER TRACE APARTMENTS CONV. $990 $1,115 1,295 1,295 $0.76 $0.86 CARRIAGE HOUSE SEC 8 1,134 CENTURY HEIGHTS AT LAKE MURRAY CONV. $1,085 $1,125 1,358 1,418 $0.80 $0.79 CHURCHHILL AT ST ANDREWS CONV. $790 1,296 $0.61 COLONY EAST APTS CONV. $560 1,200 $0.47 COLUMBIANA RIDGE APTS LIHTC $726 $750 1,224 1,224 $0.59 $0.61 COPPERFIELD APTS, THE CONV. $720 1,250 $0.58 COUNTRY WALK APARTMETNS CONV. $660 1,280 $0.52 CREEKSIDE PLACE CONV. $685 1,049 $0.65 CRESTMONT APT HOMES CONV. $1,030 1,229 $0.84 CYPRESS RUN APARTMENTS CONV. $700 1,100 $0.64 FARRINGTON APTS, THE CONV. $780 $790 1,450 1,450 $0.54 $0.54 GREEN OAKS APARTMENTS CONV. $680 1,188 $0.57 HUNTER'S RIDGE CONV. $695 $745 1,135 1,135 $0.61 $0.66 IRMO VILLAGE APTS SEC 8 900 LAKES AT HARBISON CONV. $790 1,250 $0.63 LANDMARK APARTMENTS CONV. $795 1,292 $0.62 LEXINGTON PLACE APARTMENTS CONV. $725 1,300 $0.56 LULLWATER AT SALUNDA POINTE CONV. $1,050 $1,100 1,341 1,436 $0.78 $0.77 PACES BROOK CONV. $935 1,229 $0.76 PALMETTO POINTE LIHTC $675 1,309 $0.52 RAINTREE APARTMENTS COLUMBIA CONV. $760 1,250 $0.61 RESERVE AT RIVER WALK CONV. $1,007 1,250 $0.81 RICHLAND TERRACE CONV. $667 1,325 $0.50 RIVER OAKS APARTMENTS COLUMBIA SEC 8 1,033 ST ANDREWS APTS CONV. $715 1,338 $0.53 ST ANDREWS POINTE APTS LIHTC $686 $686 1,106 1,196 $0.62 $0.57 ST ANDREWS TERRACE PUB HSG STONE RIDGE APTS CONV. $875 1,280 $0.68 THREE RIVERS APARTMENTS COLUMB CONV. $795 1,260 $0.63 WELLSPRING APARTMENTS CONV. $999 1,241 $0.80 WESTWINDS APTS CONV. $843 1,105 $0.76 WILLOW CREEK APTS CONV. $680 1,260 $0.54 WOODLAND VILLAGE APARTMENTS CONV. $757 1,585 $0.48 OVERALL Totals and Averages $807 1,206 $0.67
BREAKDOWN Market Rate Only $821 1,253 $0.66 LIHTC Only $705 1,212 $0.58
53 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Table 8.5: Amenities
Garbage Disposal Coin Op Laundry Op Coin Laundry Hookup Laundry Individual Entry Individual In-unit Laundry Walk-in Closet Walk-in Exercise Room Patio/ Balcony Patio/ Dish Washer Play ground Mini Blinds Mini Club House Club Ceiling Fan Air Central Storage
Project Name
ASHLAND COMMONS X X X X X X X X X X ASHTON, THE X X X X X X X X X X X BENT TREE APTS X X X X X X X X X X X X BROAD RIVER TRACE APARTMENTS X X X X X X X X X X X CARRIAGE HOUSE X X X X X X X X X CENTURY HEIGHTS AT LAKE MURRAY X X X X X X X X X X X X X CHURCHHILL AT ST ANDREWS X X X X X X X X X X X X COLONY EAST APTS X X X X X X X X X COLUMBIANA RIDGE APTS X X X X X X X X X X COPPERFIELD APTS, THE X X X X X X X X X X COUNTRY WALK APARTMETNS X X X X X X X X X X X X X CREEKSIDE PLACE X X X X X X X X X CRESTMONT APT HOMES XXXXXXXXXXXX XX CYPRESS RUN APARTMENTS X X X X X X X X X X FARRINGTON APTS, THE XXXX XX XXX X XX GREEN OAKS APARTMENTS X X X X X X HUNTER'S RIDGE X X X X X X X X X IRMO VILLAGE APTS X X X X X X X LAKES AT HARBISON X X X X X X X X X LANDMARK APARTMENTS X X X X X X X X X X X X LEXINGTON PLACE APARTMENTS X X X X X X X X X X LULLWATER AT SALUNDA POINTE X X X X X X X X X X PACES BROOK X X X X X X X X X X X X PALMETTO POINTE X X X X X X X RAINTREE APARTMENTS COLUMBIA X X X X X X X X X X X X RESERVE AT RIVER WALK X X X X X X X X X X X X X RICHLAND TERRACE X X X X X X X X X X X X X X RIVER OAKS APARTMENTS COLUMBIA X X X X X X X X X ST ANDREWS APTS X X X X X X X X X X ST ANDREWS POINTE APTS XXXX X XXX X X ST ANDREWS TERRACE X X STONE RIDGE APTS X X X X X X X X X X X THREE RIVERS APARTMENTS COLUMB X X X X X X X X X X X WELLSPRING APARTMENTS X X X X X X X X X WESTWINDS APTS X X X XXX X X X WILLOW CREEK APTS X X X X X X X X X X WOODLAND VILLAGE APARTMENTS X X X X X X X X X X X X OVERALL Totals and Averages 65% 97% 57% 81% 95% 32% 84% 59% 14% 81% 92% 81% 49% 62% 62%
BREAKDOWN LIHTC Only 67% 100% 67% 100% 33% 33% 100% 67% 100% 100% 100% 33% Subsidized Only 50% 100% 75% 50% 75% 25% 50% 50% 25% 75% 25% 75%
54 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Comparable Rental Projects Following are individual profiles of the two rental developments within the PMA that can be considered as comparable to the subject proposal, based on income targeting (LIHTC), project design, cash rents, or unit mix. The properties are considered directly comparable, sharing the same essential target market, construction date, and amenities.
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Map: Comparable Rental Developments
56 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Project Name: COLUMBIANA RIDGE APTS Address: 401 Columbiana Drive On-Site Management: City: Columbia Build Date: 1995 State: SC Condition: Good Zip: 49212 Program: LIHTC Phone: (803) 749-1255 Rental Assistance: 50 Vouchers Property Contact: Benita Barrett Concessions:
Square Feet Rental Rate Occupancy Waiting Unit Type Units Vacancies Length Low High 50% AMI 60% AMI Rate List 2 BR 20 0 1,028 1,028 $650 $650 100% 3 BR 64 6 1,224 1,224 $726 $750 91% 4 BR 96 2 1,386 1,386 $767 $767 98% Totals & Averages 180 8 96%
Appliances/Amenities: Utilities Included: Refrigerator/Stove X Clubhouse X Draperies Heat Included NO Garbage Disposal X Swimming Pool X Mini-blinds X Heat Type ELE Dishwasher X Playground X Walk in Closet X Air Conditioning NO Microwave Tennis Court Fireplace Electricity NO Laundry Hook-up X Basketball Court Patio/Balcony X Hot Water YES In-Unit Laundry Exercise Room Central Air Cold Water/Sewer YES Coin Operated Laundry X Storage X Wall AC Unit Trash/Recycling YES Library Ceiling Fan Pest Control YES # of Floors 2 / 3 Garage Individual Entry Carports Pull-Cord Population Served: FAMILY Elevator Community Room
Comments: 8 Market Rate Units. Occupancy issues in 2008, per SCSHFDA report.
57 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Project Name: PALMETTO POINTE Address: 1220 Meredith Drive On-Site Management: Yes City: Columbia Build Date: 1996 State: SC Condition: Good Zip: 29212 Program: LIHTC Phone: (803) 781-6900 Rental Assistance: No Property Contact: Debbie / Janet Concessions:
Square Feet Rental Rate Occupancy Waiting Unit Type Units Vacancies Length Low High 60% AMI Rate List 2 BR 100 0 954 1,093 $560 $625 100% 3 BR 80 4 1,309 $675 95% Totals & Averages 180 4 98%
Appliances/Amenities: Utilities Included: Refrigerator/Stove X Clubhouse X Draperies X Heat Included NO Garbage Disposal Swimming Pool X Mini-blinds Heat Type ELE Dishwasher X Playground X Walk in Closet Air Conditioning NO Microwave Tennis Court Fireplace Electricity NO Laundry Hook-up X Basketball Court Patio/Balcony X Hot Water NO In-Unit Laundry Exercise Room Central Air X Cold Water/Sewer YES Coin Operated Laundry Storage X Wall AC Unit Trash/Recycling YES Library Ceiling Fan Pest Control YES # of Floors 2 Garage Individual Entry Carports Pull-Cord Population Served: FAMILY Elevator Community Room
Comments:
58 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Programmatic Rents
To calculate the programmatic rent in the market, CRS utilized the two LIHTC properties in the market: Columbiana Ridge and Palmetto Pointe. A form based on the HUD Rent Comparability Form was utilized in the calculation of the programmatic rents.
The highest LIHTC rental rates were utilized as the basis from which to calculate programmatic rents, since this is the maximum rent level charged by the properties, representing the most the residents pay. Based on the planned subject profile provided by the sponsor, adjustments were made to account for the differences in build date ($5 for every ten years difference), unit sizes, and utilities and amenities included in the rental rates.
When taking all of these factors into consideration, a programmatic rent of $718 for a three-bedroom unit was calculated.
As can be seen within the table, these rental rates appear to be affordable within the market. The calculations for the programmatic rents can be found in Appendix B.
Table 8.6: Programmatic Rent Comparisons
Unit Size Estimated Achievable Rent Proposed Rents
Three Bedrooms $718 $658 - $701
59 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Section 9: INTERVIEWS
Throughout the course of performing this analysis of the rental market, many individuals were contacted. In addition to interviews with managers and leasing agents for the rental properties contacted within this report, the following is a brief summary of additional persons interviewed for purposes of this study.
• Andrew Simmons, the Information Services Manager for the Central Midlands Council of Governments told CRS of four apartment developments across the greater Columbia area that currently under construction. None of these are comparable to the subject proposal.
• According to the leasing agents within area rental properties, the overall occupancy rate in the market is 92.1%. Among LIHTC properties, the reported occupancy rate was 95.8%. Subsidized developments within the PMA are 100% occupied. Turnover was reported to be low, as fewer renters are moving on to homeownership alternatives. Very few properties are currently running specials.
• Doris Hill of the Columbia Housing Authority reported that there currently are 3,047 Housing Choice Vouchers administered by their organization. All of these vouchers are currently in use and there is a closed list in place which consists of over 3,700 households. She also told CRS that there are unmet housing needs in the community, as much of the housing stock is not in good condition. Specifically, modern two-bedroom and three-bedroom rental units are needed for local families seeking affordable housing.
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Section 10: CONCLUSIONS/RECOMMENDATIONS
The subject property, after renovations are complete, will continue to provide the community an affordable rental housing option that is properly priced and includes modern amenities. Overall, the stabilizing economy, the success of other housing developments, the information acquired through interviews with local officials, and the demand calculation all support the planned renovations for the subject property. Overall, the market is 92% occupied.
The occupancy level among LIHTC properties is 95.8%, which is reflective of the demand in the market for the proposed development. Since no displacement of current residents is planned, the re-absorption of the subject property will only be the result of normal turnover.
Market strengths include a modern product, a location with access to major roadways, the success of similar proposals in the marketplace, and the proposed improvements and upgrades. The only weakness evident is the potential limited visibility – St. Andrews Pointe is at the end of a roadway with limited traffic. Since the development is an existing rental property with a prior record of leasing success, this concern is barely worth mention.
The subject property will continue to meet the needs of the area’s low-income population, considering the low rental rates and modern amenities proposed. It is not expected that the rehabilitation of the property will have any adverse effect on other developments in the market. Assuming the development is constructed as described in this analysis, CRS can forward a positive recommendation with no reservations or conditions.
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Section 11: BIBLIOGRAPHY
1990 U.S. Census of Population and Housing, STF 1A, U.S. Census Bureau
1990 U.S. Census of Population and Housing, STF 3A, U.S. Census Bureau
1990 U.S. Census of Population and Housing, STF 4, U.S. Census Bureau
2000 U.S. Census of Population and Housing, SF1, U.S. Census Bureau
2000 U.S. Census of Population and Housing, SF3, U.S. Census Bureau
2001 American Housing Survey, U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
2008/2011 Demographic Forecasts, ESRI Business Analyst Online
Thematic maps through ESRI ArcView, Version 3.3a
Area Labor Statistics, 1996 – Present, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
SOCDS Database provided through HUDuser; data compiled from FBI crime data
Employment Changes, Greater Columbia Chamber of Commerce, 2009
Major Employers, Greater Columbia Chamber of Commerce, 2009
Interviews with managers and leasing specialists, local rental developments
Interviews with city and neighborhood planning officials
Utility allowance schedule, SC Regional Housing Authority #3
62 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
Section 12: RESUME
KELLY J. MURDOCK COMMUNITY RESEARCH SERVICES, LLC Mr. Murdock has vast experience in the analysis of housing markets. Since 1988, he has provided market analyses and studies on single-family developments, apartment complexes, condominium proposals, and senior citizen communities. Mr. Murdock has also assisted numerous nonprofit groups and non-entitled communities with the use and regulations of the HOME program, as a technical assistance representative through the Michigan State Housing Development Authority (MSHDA). He has been featured within several published articles on housing research, and has served as a speaker at numerous housing seminars on market-related issues. Mr. Murdock currently serves as the Managing Partner of Community Research Services, LLC (CRS). CRS was created to provide a wide variety of products and services to the affordable housing industry, ranging from market feasibility studies, GIS/database management services, to development consulting. CRS provides consulting and research with for-profit firms, nonprofit organizations, as well as state and local governments. At CRS, Mr. Murdock is responsible for all day-to-day operations and client relations at the firm, in addition to individual research assignments. Prior to the establishment of CRS, Mr. Murdock was the founder of Community Research Group LLC and Community Targeting Associates. Both companies provided a large degree of affordable housing research over a twelve year period (1992 to 2004) across 31 states for over 250 clients. This included research conducted under contract with Rural Housing Service, HUD, and six state housing agencies. Previously, Mr. Murdock served as the Senior Market Analyst of Target Market Systems, the market research division of First Centrum Corporation. At TMS, Mr. Murdock was responsible for market research services for all development and management divisions of the corporation, and completed some of the first market reviews and studies within Michigan under the LIHTC program (IRS Section 42).
A graduate of Eastern Michigan University, Mr. Murdock holds a degree in Economics and Business, with a concentration in economic modeling and analysis. Mr. Murdock is a member of the Michigan Housing Council, a statewide affordable housing advocacy group. He currently serves on the Council’s Board of Directors. Mr. Murdock and CRS are also charter members of the National Council of Affordable Housing Market Analysts (NCAHMA), an organization dedicated to the establishment of standard practices and methods in affordable housing research across the nation. Mr. Murdock has previously served on the executive committee of NCAHMA. CRS is also an affiliate member of the Indiana Association of Community & Economic Development, Community & Economic Development Association of Michigan, and the National Housing & Rehabilitation Association.
63 A Rental Housing Market Study for St. Andrews/Columbia, South Carolina
APPENDIX A: Email Correspondence
PMA Delineation Letter:
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PMA Approval Email from SCSHFDA:
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APPENDIX B: Programmatic Rent Calculations
Three-Bedroom Programmatic Rents: Subject Comp #1 Comp #2 St. Andrews Pointe Data Columbiana Ridge Palmetto Pointe St. Andrews Road on Columbiana Road Meredith Drive Columbia Subject Columbia Columbia A. Rents Charged Data $ Adj Data $ Adj $ Last Rent $701 $726 $675 Restricted? Rent Concessions Occupancy for Unit Type 91% 95% Effective Rent $726 $675 In Parts B thru E, adjustments are made for differences between subject and com B. Design, Location, Condition Data $ Adj Data $ Adj Structure / Stories 2 22 Yr. Built/Yr. Renovated 2011 1995 $8 1996 $8 Condition /Street Appeal Excellent Good $10 Good $10 Neighborhood 0 Same Market? Miles to Subj Other C. Unit Equipment/ Amenities Data $ Adj Data Adj # Bedrooms 3 33 # Baths 2.5 2$52$5 Unit Interior Sq. Ft. 1196 1224 ($6) 1309 ($23) Balcony/ Patio/ Porch YES YES YES AC: Central/ Wall YES NO $20 YES Range/ refrigerator YES YES YES Dishwasher YES YES YES Washer/Dryer NO NO NO Washer/Dryer Hookups YES YES YES Window Coverings YES YES YES Microwave NO NO NO D. Site Equipment/ Amenities Data $ Adj Data $ Adj Parking ( $ Fee) NO NO NO Extra Storage NO YES ($5) YES ($5) Security NO NO NO Clubhouse/ Meeting Rooms YES YES YES Pool/ Recreation Areas YES YES YES Computer Room YES YES NO $5 Service Coordination YES NO $5 NO $5 Non-shelter Services YES NO $5 NO $5 E. Utilities Data $ Adj Data $ Adj Heat (in rent?/ type) NO NO NO Cooling (in rent?/ type) NO NO NO Cooking (in rent?/ type) NO NO NO Hot Water (in rent?/ type) NO YES ($18) NO Other Electric NO NO NO Cold Water/ Sewer YES YES YES Trash /Recycling YES YES YES F. Adjustments Recap Pos Neg Pos Neg # Adjustments B to D 6$26$2 Sum Adjustments B to D $53 ($11) $38 ($28) Sum Utility Adjustments $0 ($18) $0 $0 Net Gross Net Gross Net/ Gross Adjmts B to E $24 $82 $10 $65 G. Adjusted & Market Rents Adj. Rent Adj. Rent Adjusted Rent $750 $685 Adj. Rent/Last rent 103% 101%
Estimated Achievable Rent $718
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APPENDIX C: Form S-2
Revised 3-24-08 2008 EXHIBIT S – 2 SCSHFDA PRIMARY MARKET AREA ANALYSIS SUMMARY: (APPENDIX C) St. Andrews Pointe Apartments Development Name: Total # Units: 150 1510 St. Andrews Road, Columbia 150 Location: # LIHTC Units: Tracts 103.03, 103.04, 103.05, 104.03, 104.04, 104.05, 104.07, 104.08, 104.09, 205.06, 205.07, 205.08, 205.10, PMA Boundary: 205.11, 210.14, 211.04, 211.05, 211.06, 211.07, 211.08 Farthest Boundary Distance to Subject: 12 miles
RENTAL HOUSING STOCK (found on page 55) Type # Properties Total Units Vacant Units Average Occupancy* All Rental Housing 37 6895 545 92.1% Market-Rate Housing 30 6056 524 91.4% Assisted/Subsidized Housing not to 4329 0 100.0% include LIHTC
LIHTC (All that are stabilized)** 3510 21 83.6% Stabilized Comps*** 3510 21 95.8% Non-stabilized Comps * Average Occupancy percentages will be determined by using the second and fourth quarter rates reported for 2008. ** Stabilized occupancy of at least 93%. *** Comps are those comparable to the subject and those that compete at nearly the same rent levels and tenant profile, such as age, family and income. Subject Development Adjusted Market Rent Highest Unadjusted Comp Rent # # Proposed Per Unit Per SF Advantage Per Unit Per SF Units Bedrooms Baths Size (SF) Tenant Rent 32.5 1196 150 $ 103,860 $ 692 $ 0.58 7.7% 750 $ 0.63 $ $ $ % $ $
$ $ $ % $ $
****Gross Potential Rent Monthly $ 103,860 $ 692 3.4% ****Gross Potential Rent Monthly is calculated by multiplying the number of units for each bedroom type by the proposed tenant rent by bedroom. Sum of those is the Gross Potential Rent
DEMOGRAPHIC DATA (found on page 30-38) 2000 2008 2011
Renter Households 14,935 38.3%16,591 38.3% 17,212 38.3%
Income-Qualified Renter HHs (LIHTC) 3,181 21.3% 3,534 21.3% 3,666 21.3%
Income-Qualified Renter HHs (MR) (if applicable) NA NA NA NA NA
TARGETED INCOME-QUALIFIED RENTER HOUSEHOLD DEMAND (found on page 47) Market- Type of Demand 50% 60%Other:__ Other:__ Overall rate Renter Household Growth 41 82 123
Existing Households (Overburd + Substand) 280 568 848
Homeowner conversion (Seniors)
Other: 00 0 Less Comparable/Competitive Supply 00 Net Income-qualified Renter HHs 321 650 971
CAPTURE RATES (found on page 47) - assumes 100% re-lease of property Market- Targeted Population 50% 60% Other:__ Other:__ Overall rate Capture Rate 9.3% 18.5% 15.4%
ABSORPTION RATE (found on page 49) Absorption Rate two months
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Proposed Gross Gross Bedroom Tax Credit Potential TC Adjusted Potential Tax Credit Gross # Units Type Tenant Rent Tenant Rent Market Rent Market Rent Rent Advantage 0 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 0 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 0 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 0 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 1 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 1 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 1 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 1 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 1 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 1 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 2 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 2 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 2 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 2 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 2 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 2 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 30 3 BR $658 $19,740 $718 $21,540 8.36% 120 3 BR $701 $84,120 $718 $86,160 2.37% 3 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 3 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 3 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 3 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 4 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 4 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 4 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 4 BR $0 $0 #DIV/0! 150 $103,860 $107,700 3.57%
Threshold Criteria Summary:
1. Does the development have a minimum 10% market rate advantage? ____yes __X___no
2. Family development- Is the absorption/lease-up period 16 months or less? ____yes _____no __X___n/a
3. Older/ Elderly development- Is the absorption/lease-up period 18 months or less? _____yes ____no ____n/a
4. Is the overall capture rate 40% or more? ____yes __X___no
5. Is the overall LIHTC unit vacancy rate, in the market area, 10% or greater? _X__yes _____no
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APPENDIX D: NCAHMA Checklist
ST. ANDREWS POINTE APARTMENTS – COLUMBIA, SC
INTRODUCTION Members of the National Council of Affordable Housing Market Analysts provide a checklist referencing all components of their market study. This checklist is intended to assist readers on the location content of issues relevant to the evaluation and analysis of market studies.
DESCRIPTION AND PROCEDURE FOR COMPLETING The following components have been addressed in this market study. The page number of each component is noted below. Each component is fully discussed on that page or pages. In cases where the item is not relevant, the author has indicated ‘N/A’ or not applicable. Where a conflict with or variation from client standards or client requirements exists, the author has indicated a ‘V’ (variation) with a comment explaining the conflict in a section following the checklist.
CHECKLIST
COMPONENT (Continued) PAGE(S) 1. Executive Summary 2-3 2. Concise description of the site and adjacent parcels 6-7 3. Project Summary 4-5 4. Precise statement of key conclusions 61 5. Recommendations and/or modification to project discussion n/a 6. Market strengths and weaknesses impacting project 61 7. Lease-up projection with issues impacting performance 46 8. Project description with exact number of bedrooms and baths 4-5 proposed, income limitation, proposed rents, and utility allowances 9. Utilities (and utility sources) included in rent and paid by 4-5 landlord or tenant?
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COMPONENT (Continued) PAGE(S) 10. Project design description 4-5 11. Unit and project amenities; parking 4-5 12. Public programs included 1 13. Date of construction/preliminary completion 5 14. Reference to review/status of project plans 5 15. Target population description 1 16. Market area/secondary market area description 15-16 17. Description of site characteristics 6-7 18. Site photos/maps 9-12 19. Map of community services 8 20. Visibility and accessibility evaluation 7 21. Crime information 14-15 22. Population and household counts 30-37 23. Households by tenure 35 24. Distribution of income 39-41 25. Employment by industry 19 26. Area major employers 24 27. Historical unemployment rate 21-23 28. Five-year employment growth n/a 29. Typical wages by occupation 28-29 30. Discussion of commuting patterns of area workers 26-27 31. Existing rental housing discussion 47-59 32. Area building permits n/a 33. Comparable property discussion 55-59 34. Comparable property profiles 56-58 35. Area vacancy rates, including rates for Tax Credit and 52 government-subsidized 36. Comparable property photos 56-58 37. Identification of waiting lists 52 38. Narrative of subject property compared to comparable 49-59 properties 39. Discussion of other affordable housing options including 49-59 homeownership 40. Discussion of subject property on existing housing 49-59 41. Map of comparable properties 56 42. Description of overall rental market including share of market- 49-59 rate and affordable properties 43. List of existing and proposed LIHTC properties 52 44. Interviews with area housing stakeholders 60 45. Availability of Housing Choice Vouchers 60 46. Income levels required to live at subject site 4 47. Market rent and programmatic rent for subject 59
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COMPONENT (Continued) PAGE(S) 48. Capture rate for property 45-46 49. Penetration rate for area properties n/a 50. Absorption rate discussion 46 51. Discussion of future changes in housing population 30-37 52. Discussion of risks or other mitigating circumstances impacting n/a project projection 53. Preparation date of report Cover 54. Date of field work 6 55. Certification Beginning of Report 56. Statement of qualifications 63 57. Sources of data 62 58. Utility allowance schedule n/a
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APPENDIX E: Rent Roll – St. Andrews Pointe Apartments
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APPENDIX F: Floor Plans and Elevations – St. Andrews Pointe
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