Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt
Yardeni Research, Inc.
September 24, 2021
Dr. Edward Yardeni 516-972-7683 [email protected]
Mali Quintana 480-664-1333 [email protected]
Please visit our sites at www.yardeni.com blog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box Table Of Contents TableTable OfOf ContentsContents
Margin Debt 3-6
September 24, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Margin Debt Figure 1. 900 Aug 50 MARGIN DEBT & WILSHIRE 5000 840 9/23 780
720 Margin Debt* 40 660 (billion dollars) (911.5)
600 Wilshire 5000 540 Market Cap 30 (trillions) (46.3) 480
420
360 20
300
240
180 10
120
60 yardeni.com 0 0 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Beginning in 1997 data are debit balances in customers’ securities margin accounts. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Figure 2. 3.0 3.0 MARGIN DEBT* (as a percent of Wilshire 5000) 2.8 2.8
2.6 2.6
2.4 2.4
2.2 2.2
2.0 Aug 2.0
1.8 1.8
1.6 1.6
1.4 1.4
1.2 1.2
yardeni.com 1.0 1.0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Page 3 / September 24, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Margin Debt Figure 3. 400 400 MARGIN DEBT* 350 (yearly change, billion dollars) 350
300 300 Aug 250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
-50 -50
-100 -100
-150 -150 yardeni.com -200 -200 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Figure 4. 100 100 MARGIN DEBT* (yearly percent change)
50 50 Aug
0 0
yardeni.com -50 -50 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Note: Shaded red areas are S&P 500 bear market declines of 20% or more. Yellow areas show bull markets. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Page 4 / September 24, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Margin Debt Figure 5. 1000 40
MARGIN DEBT & S&P 500 9/22 Aug
800 Margin Debt* (billion dollars) (911.5) 30
S&P 500 Market Cap (37.3)
600
20
400
10 200
yardeni.com 0 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Standard & Poor’s.
Figure 6. 4 4 MARGIN DEBT (as a percent of S&P 500 market cap)
3 3
Aug
2 2
yardeni.com 1 1 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Standard & Poor’s.
Page 5 / September 24, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Margin Debt Figure 7. 900 Aug 3000 MARGIN DEBT & RUSSELL 3000 850 800 9/24 750 Margin Debt* 700 (billion dollars) 650 2000 600 Russell 3000 Index 550 500 450 400 350 1000 300 250 200 150 100 yardeni.com 50 0 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Beginning in 1997 data are debit Balances in customers’ securities margin accounts. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Wall Street Journal.
Figure 8. 9/24 1000 1000 950 MARGIN DEBT & S&P 1500 950 900 Aug 900 850 850 800 800 S&P 1500 Composite Index 750 750 700 Margin Debt* 700 650 (billion dollars) 650 600 600 550 550 500 500 450 450 400 400 350 350 300 300 250 250 200 200 150 150 100 100 yardeni.com 50 50 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23
* Debit balances in margin accounts at broker/dealers. Source: New York Stock Exchange through December 1996, FINRA thereafter, and Haver Analytics.
Page 6 / September 24, 2021 / Stock Market Indicators: Margin Debt Yardeni Research, Inc. www.yardeni.com Copyright (c) Yardeni Research, Inc. 2021. All rights reserved. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, but is not necessarily complete and its accuracy cannot be guaranteed. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the fairness, accuracy, completeness, or correctness of the information and opinions contained herein. The views and the other information provided are subject to change without notice. All reports and podcasts posted on www.yardeni.com, blog.yardeni.comhttp://blog.yardeni.com, and YRI’s Apps are issued without regard to the specific investment objectives, financial situation, or particular needs of any specific recipient and are not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments. Past performance is not necessarily a guide to future results. Company fundamentals and earnings may be mentioned occasionally, but should not be construed as a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold the company’s stock. Predictions, forecasts, and estimates for any and all markets should not be construed as recommendations to buy, sell, or hold any security--including mutual funds, futures contracts, and exchange traded funds, or any similar instruments.
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