Threat Forecast 2014 www.red24threatforecast.com www.red24.com Advice - Support - Response About us red24 is a crisis management assistance company delivering a range of products and services to businesses, organisations and individuals around the world. We have an unparalleled reputation for assisting clients in minimising risks to their personnel, operations and profitability and we have our own in-house customer service, analyst and crisis support departments that are available to assist clients around the clock. Our services range from country-based security and travel risk information to fraud and identity theft prevention advice. red24’s global network of multi-disciplinary consultants can also assist clients with setting up crisis management and contingency plans, supplying close protection services, resolving kidnapping and extortion incidents, providing security-focused training and conducting evacuations from countries in turmoil. red24 operates a 24/7 Crisis Response Management (CRM) Centre in Cape Town, South Africa, which coordinates our activities across the globe and is available at all times to assist clients. For further information on the company, please visit our website at www.red24.com. Advice - Support - Response Contents Foreword 3 Executive Summary 4 red24 Global Risk Map 2014 5/6 Europe • Introduction 7 • The EU in 2014 - The political hangover of economic recovery 8 • Russia - The calculated gamble of the Winter Olympics in Sochi 9 • Turkey - A difficult year ahead 10 Americas • Introduction 11 • Brazil - Security concerns at the 2014 FIFA World Cup 12 • Mexico - Mexico’s national security policy and persistent violence 13 • United States - The threat of terrorism from within 14 Middle East and North Africa • Introduction 15 • Syria - Long-term political and security challenges 16 • Iraq - Al-Qaeda in Iraq’s resurgence 17 • Egypt - The persistent cycle of political uncertainty and instability 18 Asia • Introduction 19 • Afghanistan - Repercussions of the NATO withdrawal 20 • China - Increasing labour protests in the People’s Republic 21 • India - Will the recent creation of new states galvanise other separatist movements? 22 Africa • Introduction 23 • The Sahel - A new frontier of terrorism? 24 • Mozambique - Concerns over a new civil war as RENAMO ‘returns to the bush’ 25 • Kenya - Was Westgate a sign of things to come? 26 Kidnapping 27 Piracy 32 Calendar • General events 34 • Elections 46 Contributors 47 Contact details 48 Threat Forecast 2014 | www.red24.com 2 Foreword red24 is once again proud to deliver our annual Threat Forecast. In our latest edition, we look at a select number of key issues globally, providing thoughtful insight into how these concerns will affect their respective political and security environments in 2014. With the world becoming increasingly interconnected, together with the global expansion of markets and operations, it is essential that businesses are informed of how potential or actual risks may develop across the globe. The expansive growth of companies transnationally has seen operations moving into more uncertain territories where security risks are unfamiliar and where global, regional and sub-regional political and economic crises have affected local and foreign actors alike. In many areas these complex environments have given rise to insecurity and volatility that have exacerbated the operational risk of businesses. ‘red24’s Threat Forecast Since 2001, red24 has assisted its clients in mitigating operational and allows organisations to travel risks so they may focus on their own core business areas. red24’s Threat Forecast allows organisations to understand the upcoming understand the upcoming security climate in order to mitigate the threats that lie ahead. With such knowledge in hand, companies can ensure their continued operation, as well as the safety of their clients and employees, and the security climate in order integrity of their infrastructure and supply chains. Specifically, security managers and company strategists have come to use the forecast to mitigate the threats as a starting point in their focus on developing a clear picture of what security, travel and political risks they, their clients and employees are that lie ahead. likely to experience in their specific areas of interest in the year to ’ come. red24 is also excited to announce that our Threat Forecast 2014 will be available in both an interactive web-based platform as well as a printable PDF document. The website is user-friendly and allows clients to easily navigate between the key regional risks we have assessed, our kidnapping and piracy forecasts for 2014, and our upcoming event calendars. In ad- dition, clients wishing to print a comprehensive hard copy version of all the web content can access and download our PDF version; this also includes a large-scale quick-reference poster of our country risk ratings. In conclusion, our team of analysts, which occupy various regional desks, have compiled a comprehensive and astute threat forecast for the year ahead and I trust that you, the reader, will find value in it and use it as a base from which to mitigate business and travel risks in 2014, and beyond. Maldwyn Worsley-Tonks CEO Threat Forecast 2014 | www.red24.com 3 Executive summary The 2014 Threat Forecast sees each of our analyst desks – covering Europe, the Americas, Middle East and North Africa, Asia, and Sub-Saharan Africa – selecting three main issues on which to focus. While each section’s introduction provides an overview of the primary concerns across the respective regions, the 15 key stories provide a greater in-depth analysis and assessment of issues we believe will have a notable impact on the geopolitical and/or security environment in 2014. The Threat Forecast also contains a global review of kidnapping and piracy trends, as well as a calendar of events that may affect travel or security in 2014. In addition, there is also a calendar of national elections for the year ahead. In Europe, we look at the persisting political and economic concerns across the EU. While 2013 saw some economic growth, with a decline in social turmoil and unrest, the region still faces numerous trials in 2014. We also focus on the security challenges facing Russia ahead of the Winter Olympics being held in the southern city of Sochi, located only a few hundred kilometres from the volatile North Caucasus region. In addition, we take a look at the various political challenges facing Turkey; with two key elections taking place in 2014, significant unrest remains a concern. Like Russia, Brazil also hosts a high-profile sporting event in 2014, with the FIFA World Cup taking place in 12 cities across the country. Here, protests and high levels of both petty and violent crime will be the key risks. In the Americas, we also review the ongoing security challenges in Mexico, where high levels of violence from transnational criminal organisations (TCOs) have persisted throughout 2013, despite assurances of a new strategy from President Enrique Pena Nieto. Authorities in the US will also face the ongoing challenge of preventing terrorist attacks, particularly from self-radical- ised US nationals. The conflict in Syria continued unabated throughout 2013, despite ‘Fifteen key stories opposition forces not replicating their successes of years prior; while fighting will continue, 2014 may also see peace talks between the provide an in-depth Assad regime and rebel groups. Meanwhile, neighbouring Iraq has seen a resurgence of attacks by al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) and like- analysis of issues we minded groups. Egypt remains in the grip of a substantial political crisis following the military overthrow of the democratically elected believe will have a notable government in 2013. Afghanistan will face an uncertain future with the withdrawal of the majority of foreign combat troops in 2014, likely impact on the geopolitical leading to increased instability and internal contentions, but also emboldening Pakistan-based militants in that country’s north western tribal regions. While China remains on a relatively solid political and security environment footing, the growing occurrence of labour-related protests shows a potential concern for business interests. In India, the recent granting in 2014. of the establishment of a new state, Telangana, may prompt other ’ separatist movements to push their own agendas. In Africa, Islamist militants have expanded their operational presence in the Sahel region. Despite regional and domestic initiatives to limit such elements, the authorities’ effectiveness is hampered by porous borders, poorly policed terrain, political instability and easy arms availability. In Mozambique, 2013 saw a number of conflict incidents between the ruling and opposition parties, FRELIMO and RENAMO respectively. Although concerns of a return to civil war were raised, red24 assesses this risk to be low. Finally, in Kenya, terrorism remains a persistent concern, and was highlighted by the 2013 attack on Westgate shopping mall in the capital, Nairobi. Kidnapping remains an ongoing concern in many regions. Although there was not a considerable rise in the number of incidents globally from 2012 to 2013, the nature and spread of such incidents did alter. While the Americas region remains a prolific area for abductions, the historically high-risk Colombia saw a decrease in incidents, while Mexico recorded its highest number of kidnappings in 16 years. With the ongoing civil war in Syria, the country also saw