Cheltenham Festival Guide
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Grand National Guide 2017 Lap of The Odds Daniel Watkins Grand National Guide 2017 In Summary So, it’s still over 340 days til the next Cheltenham festival. I can’t spend all of that time pondering the likely make-up of the 2018 Champion Hurdle. Thankfully the racing calendar is the gift that keeps on giving, and here comes the blessing/curse for all tipsters, the Aintree Grand National. If you wanted to pick a race on which to be annually judged by the casual punter you might not pick a 40 runner cavalry charge over the biggest fences in racing. That said, despite the inherent elements of randomness, it is actually a decent betting opportunity. Remember to follow all our daily tips, for Aintree, racing, golf, football and all sports at Lap Of The Odds, at our website, Twitter and Facebook. Please note, that to allow for excitement to build, we compile and distribute this guide prior to the final field being declared. Historically the top 40 in the race are likely to hold their ground, but it is possible that a couple may withdraw. We have included assessments of those horses that might make the field who currently aren’t in, but if there are any changes then be sure to note the names of the horses below (which won’t change) and not the racecard numbers (which might). OK, so a select few readers might like to pile through the extended write-up that follows – but most will just want to know the answer. So here goes for a 1-2-3-4 for the 2017 Grand National: 1st: Thunder and Roses 40/1 2nd: Vieux Lion Rouge 11/1 3rd: Blaklion 12/1 4th: The Last Samuri 16/1 If you’d like to know why, then read on… Daniel Watkins www.lapoftheodds.com Twitter Facebook Page 2 Grand National Guide 2017 The Race Four and a half miles, 30 huge fences and 40 runners – there is no race quite like the Aintree Grand National. The race, the track, and the meeting has had a huge makeover since nearly folding in the mid-Seventies. I saw my first National in the flesh when West Tip won in 1985, by which time the fixture was 8 years into its recovery – you wouldn’t have known. The stands were wooden and ramshackle, attendance was low until the National itself – but I didn’t care, it was my first National and I had the winner, how easy was that – the innocence of youth. I last attended a few years ago when Neptune Collonges won. No winner for me that day – but what a meeting this now is. The facilities are superb, the racing is top notch, and the crowds are huge – a little startling on “Ladies Day”, and a little too numerous on National Day perhaps, but great fun. The biggest transformation though is to the race itself. Justly concerned by issues of animal welfare, there have been amendments to the course, with the flattening and raising of the landing area at Becher’s Brook being the most profound. The changes to the fences themselves have been the most impactful. These fences used to have solid wooden pole cores, dressed in birch, which allowed a small margin for brushing across the top, but get any lower and there would be no escape. Now the inner core is a hardened plastic. It still represents a jumping challenge, but the fences are much more merciful to a slightly low trajectory. Since 1990, 75% of all fallers in the race come to grief at one of the first 6 fences (mostly on the first circuit). The first fence and the sixth (Becher’s) claim the most with just over 20% each. This is due to the speed of the race in its early stages and the cluttered field of 40 runners. If you are clear over Becher’s on the first circuit, you can usually hope to cheer your horse all the way to the line. Daniel Watkins www.lapoftheodds.com Twitter Facebook Page 3 Grand National Guide 2017 The Trends This used to be a race with very well defined trends – the Goldilocks approach usually did the trick. The winner was not too old, not too young; not too much weight, not too little; not too long in the betting, not too short. In fact, anything around 14/1 to 25/1 aged 8-11, carrying 10st 5 to 11st would narrow down most National fields. You will still see trend followers clinging to historical norms, but the redesign of the course has been a real trend-buster, and taking only recent years into account you can pretty much draw a line through the value of trend analysis. Mon Mome’s 100/1 win in 2009 started a trend-busting run of results since course changes came into play. Did I back him? Of course I did…..the year before when he was 10th at 28/1…. Until 2009, only 2 of the previous 25 winners carried 11st or more, since then its 5 out of 8. You could argue that the handicapper’s tactics are seeing more runners carrying such weights and that the easier course makes for a more class-driven outcome. I’d simply say that the cumulative effect of the changes is to open the race up to any weight band. We’ve had dodgy jumpers like Aurora’s Encore and Pineau De Re prevail, and the average SP of the last 10 years has been 33/1 – it was 14/1 for the previous 10 years. That tells us the market is finding it harder to identify the winner – again a symptom of the breaking of old trends. There are no longer any hard and fast rules. Winners now come from anywhere. Daniel Watkins www.lapoftheodds.com Twitter Facebook Page 4 Grand National Guide 2017 The Runners 1. THE LAST SAMURI He ran a gallant race in 2nd last year and returns off a mark 12lbs higher. He showed his liking for the course when running a blinder off a mark just 2lbs lower than this in the Becher chase here in November. That run suggests he can be competitive off this lofty rating. He looks certain to give of his best again. For all of his Red-Rum like love of the track, top weight looks a little bit on the high side. He’s quite likely to finish in or near the frame, but a winner off this rating looks a bit too much to ask. 2. MORE OF THAT This horse promised to be a new superstar when he beat Annie Power in a World Hurdle. As is so often the case, injury led to loss of form, and he looked likely to be the horse who never was until something of a mini-revival this year, culminating in a good 6th in the Gold Cup. A mark of 157 look reasonable in light of that Cheltenham run. He is another who can be less than fluent over his obstacles. That may not be the problem it once was now that the fences are softer, although his recent unseat at the last at Leopardstown is obviously worrying. 3. SHANTOU FLYER This horse has been something of a revelation since joining Rebecca Curtis at the start of the season. He won a competitive Cheltenham handicap, and followed with a respectable 4th back there in January and a reasonable, if distant, runner-up to Cue Card in a grade 1 at Ascot. All those runs were at 2m4f. There used to a theory that a 2m4f horse was a good match for the National. I think that harked back to the good old days of “hunting around” for the first lap before racing properly in the second lap. Those tactics are more a thing of the past now the course redesign has reduced the challenge and allowed for a strong racing pace from the get-go. As such, a good horse, but one running 2 miles too far. 4. PERFECT CANDIDATE Whilst watching this fella win a New Year’s Day handicap at Cheltenham off a mark of 134, I would never have guessed he would be a National candidate off a 22lb higher mark just 15 months later. He has been progressive, clearly, but his win last time was in the relatively shallow waters of a veterans chase and his mark has suffered again as a result. He is a very sound jumper and I can see him taking well to this course and the nature of the race. I wouldn’t be surprised if he made the top 10, but like so many of us, he is probably a stone or more above a decent racing weight. Daniel Watkins www.lapoftheodds.com Twitter Facebook Page 5 Grand National Guide 2017 5. SAPHIR DU RHEU This is another horse who looked like early promise would give way to disappointment. This season, however, he has seemed much improved and that was highlighted by an excellent 5th in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. On that run alone, he beat More of That by over 3 lengths and is 1lb better off. Indeed, he was only 3 lengths behind Native River, which represents putting that horse in this race off around 11st 7lb – which would undoubtedly be a short priced favourite. There is something about Saphir that doesn’t catch the betting public – he was overpriced at Cheltenham and he could be over-priced here again. He won well at Aintree (regular fences) as a novice, and although he disappointed last year that was in the context of a poor year as a whole.