National Disaster Risk management Commission (NDRMC), Early Warning and Response Directorate Early Warning and Response Analysis June, 2016 This bulletin is prepared by the Early Warning and Response Directorate to coordinate and disseminate early warning and food security information. For any comments, questions or suggestions and/or to receive the bulletin on your email please write to [email protected] If you are planning to contribute to the response effort, please inform NDRMC by writing to [email protected] Released on June, 2016 2 Early Warning and Response Analysis June, 2016 Contents Acronyms .......................................................................................................................................................... 3 Early Warning and Response Summary for June, 2016 .................................................................................... 4 Weather Conditions ........................................................................................................................................... 5 Market Condition……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………….8 Nutrition ........................................................................................................................................................ …9 Appendix ........................................................................................................................................................ .10 Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC 3 Early Warning and Response Analysis June, 2016 ACRONYMS: CHD: Child Health Day CPI: Consumer Price Index CSA: Central Statistical Agency DRMFSS: Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector EGTE: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise EHNRI: Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research Institute ENCU: Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization FMOH: Federal Ministry of Health GAM: Global Acute Malnutrition HRF: Humanitarian Response Fund IMC: International Medical Corps ITCZ: Inter Tropical Convergent Zone MAM: Moderate Acute Malnutrition NDRMC: National Disaster Risk management Commission NMA: National Meteorological Agency OTP: Outpatient Therapeutic Program PLW: Pregnant and Lactating Women SAM: Severe Acute Malnutrition TFU: Therapeutic Feeding Unit TSF: Targeted Supplementary Food TSFP: Targeted Supplementary Feeding Program WFP: World Food Programme Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC 4 Early Warning and Response Analysis June, 2016 EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE SUMMARY In accordance with the National Meteorological Agency’s weather forecast Kiremt rain benefiting areas of the country will have normal rainfall as per normal condition. Better rainfall amount and distribution is expected particularly over northwestern, western and southwestern parts of the country with a chance of heavy falls at places. Thus the concerned personnel should take appropriate measures ahead of time in low-lying areas, near river banks and in areas where the soil type is clay(with low water percolation capacity) in order to minimize the effect of flood damage in the areas.. Generally during the coming month of June 2016, normal to above normal rainfall distribution is expected over Gambela, parts of Oromiya(West and East Wellega, Ilu Ababora, Jima, East and West Shewa), parts of SNNPR (Guragie, Hadiya, Sidama, North Omo, Keficho and Shekicho), Benishangul Gumuz, parts of Amhara (North and South Gonder, West Gojam and Awi Zone) and western Tigray. Therefore the expected favorable moisture condition would favor early season’s agricultural activities. Besides the rain would have a positive impact on the late sown long cycle crops to continuing their normal growth and development in the above mention areas. In addition to that it would have positive impact on the availability of pasture and drinking water in pastoral areas. Moreover near normal rainfall is anticipated over parts of Amhara (North and South Wello, North Shewa and Waghemra), parts of Tigray(East and South Tigray) and parts of Oromiya(West and East Harargie, Bale and Arsi). In most cases floods occur in the country as a result of prolonged heavy rainfall causing rivers to overflow and inundate areas along the river banks in lowland plains. Thus preparedness actions including dissemination of early warning information to population at risk, reinforcing flood protection structures in at-risk areas, and strengthening community mobilization and sensitization, communication between highland and downstream areas to prepare for likely runoffs, timely evacuation of communities at risk to higher grounds and provision of immediate emergency support is recommended. The ongoing massive relief supply in these drought affected areas continued to contribiute for stable market price trends. Similariy, in the dominantly maize consuming southern and eastern parts of the country market price for maize in May 2016 has remained stable compared to the preceeding month. Regionally, Afar recorded the highest decrease in TFP admissions by 34 percent from 2,901 (91.6% reporting rate) in March to 1,915 at 85.0 percent reporting rate in April. The decrease in TFP admission was linked with good belg/gu rains and different interventions that are going on during the reporting period. In Somali region, TFP admissions increased slightly by 3.5 percent in April compared to March. A total of 19 teams have been deployed across six regions in which different sectors were involved in each team .An orientation for the multi-agency team has been given on June 3, 2016. A total of 36 partners contributed for 2016 belg needs assessment. The contributions are above 100 percent in human resource, vehicle and financial support in contrast to the planned Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC 5 Early Warning and Response Analysis June, 2016 May 2016 weather conditions 87 124 57 130 69 3659 30 600 78 41 116 115 500 75 66 145 99 400 196 69 130 41 10 153 193 300 133 183 171 90 123 44 66 200 149 58 228 78 82 108 154 184 46 119 100 243 24 30 98 157 102 45 175 29 50 50 232 86 87 265 151 141 355 358 66 89 90 25 318 121 194 91 63 303 54 171 358 526 187 133127 55 129 475 60 125 223 275 165 50176177 186 274 257 256 95 454 325 142 109 127 44 253 235 166 111 272 226 210 432 287 136 113 78 325 129 123186 79 132 189 41 14 376 110 282 89 45 239 233 145 73 102 394 16 202 16746 128 70 57 94 Map 2: Percent of normal rainfall distribution for May 2016 Map 1: Rainfall distribution in mm for the month of May 2016 Source: NMA Source: NMA As can be seen from map 2, with the exception of northeastern Afar, south and southeastern Somali, During the month of May 2016, pocket areas of a few areas of central and eastern SNNPR western Oromiya exhibited falls greater than 400 including southwestern Oromiya the rest of the mm. Southeastern parts of Benishangul Gumuz, country experienced normal to above normal southeastern Gambella, parts of northwestern rainfall. SNNPR, parts of western and a few areas of southern Oromiya received falls ranging from 10 30 11 1011 8 9 300 - 400 mm. Most parts of Benishangul 7 7 14 4 25 Gumuz, parts of western and a few areas of 20 3 8 7 17 4 southern Oromiya, parts of central and eastern 15 11 20 8 10 2 16 19 16 1 15 Gambella, parts of northwestern SNNPR 17 10 8 4 2 11 5 25 17 7 10 6 23 4 16 10 experienced falls ranging from 200 – 300 mm. A 19 6 4 15 9 5 7 25 7 7 21 11 8 5 few areas of northern Tigray, most parts of 18 9 9 26 23 7 9 11 23 13 17 13 8 25 7 13 25 29 12 1316 Amhara, northern parts of Benishangul Gumuz, 9 7 19 9 13 24 24 16 8 6 10 14 22 20 27 8 most parts of central and western Oromiya, parts 29 25 17 11 17 4 21 19 11 12 26 20 7 20 24 of northern and central SNNPR experienced falls 17 11 19 20 14 15 23 13 6 ranging from 100 - 200 mm. Parts of Tigray and 13 10 3 22 9 12 13 3 21 18 15 12 eastern Amhara, most parts of northern, central 8 13 2 15 109 11 12 and southwestern Somali, southern and 5 northwestern parts Afar received falls ranging from 50 - 100 mm. The rest of the country 6 received falls less than 50 mm. Map 3: Number of Rainy day days for the month May 2016 Source: NMA Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC 6 Early Warning and Response Analysis June, 2016 Pocket areas of western Oromiya received falls in in order to minimize the effect of flood damage in greater than 25 rainy days. Southeastern the areas. Benishangul Gumuz, most parts of SNNPR, most parts of western and a few areas of southern Generally during the coming month of June 2016, Oromiya received falls in 20-25 rainy days. Most normal to above normal rainfall distribution is parts of western half of Amhara, a few areas of expected over Gambela, parts of Oromiya(West central and western margin of Oromiya and parts and East Wellega, Ilu Ababora, Jima, East and of northern and central SNNPR received falls in West Shewa), parts of SNNPR (Guragie, Hadiya, 15 -20 rainy days. Most parts of central and Sidama, North Omo, Keficho and Shekicho), western Tigray, central and northwestern Benishangul Gumuz, parts of Amhara (North and Amhara, central and southern Oromiya, central South Gonder, West Gojam and Awi Zone) and and western SNNPR received falls in 10 -15 western Tigray. Therefore the expected favorable rainy days. Southern and northern tip of Afar, moisture condition would favor early season’s most parts of eastern Tigray, most parts of agricultural activities. Besides it would have a northern and central Somali, parts of eastern and positive impact on the late sown long cycle crops southern Oromiya, southern and a few areas of to continuing their normal growth and eastern SNNPR received falls in 5 - 10 rainy days. development in the above mention areas. In Hence, the observed good distribution of rainfall addition to that it would have positive impact on could have positive impact on season’s the availability of pasture and drinking water in agricultural activities in the above-mentioned pastoral areas. Moreover near normal rainfall is areas. Besides, it could favor the availability of anticipated over parts of Amhara (North and pasture and drinking water over most parts of South Wello, North Shewa and Waghemra), parts pastoral areas of the country.