National Disaster Risk management Commission (NDRMC), Early Warning and Response Directorate

Early Warning and Response Analysis

June, 2016

This bulletin is prepared by the Early Warning and Response Directorate to coordinate and disseminate early warning and food security information.

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2 Early Warning and Response Analysis June, 2016

Contents

Acronyms ...... 3

Early Warning and Response Summary for June, 2016 ...... 4

Weather Conditions ...... 5

Market Condition……………………………………………………………………………………………………………………………….………….8

Nutrition ...... …9

Appendix ...... 10

Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC

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ACRONYMS:

CHD: Child Health Day

CPI: Consumer Price Index

CSA: Central Statistical Agency

DRMFSS: Disaster Risk Management and Food Security Sector

EGTE: Ethiopian Grain Trade Enterprise

EHNRI: Ethiopian Health and Nutrition Research Institute

ENCU: Emergency Nutrition Coordination Unit

FAO: Food and Agriculture Organization

FMOH: Federal Ministry of Health

GAM: Global Acute Malnutrition

HRF: Humanitarian Response Fund

IMC: International Medical Corps

ITCZ: Inter Tropical Convergent Zone

MAM: Moderate Acute Malnutrition

NDRMC: National Disaster Risk management Commission

NMA: National Meteorological Agency

OTP: Outpatient Therapeutic Program

PLW: Pregnant and Lactating Women

SAM: Severe Acute Malnutrition

TFU: Therapeutic Feeding Unit

TSF: Targeted Supplementary Food

TSFP: Targeted Supplementary Feeding Program

WFP: World Food Programme

Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC

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EARLY WARNING AND RESPONSE SUMMARY

 In accordance with the National Meteorological Agency’s weather forecast Kiremt rain benefiting areas of the country will have normal rainfall as per normal condition. Better rainfall amount and distribution is expected particularly over northwestern, western and southwestern parts of the country with a chance of heavy falls at places. Thus the concerned personnel should

take appropriate measures ahead of time in low-lying areas, near river banks and in areas where the soil type is clay(with low water percolation capacity) in order to minimize the effect of flood damage in the areas..

 Generally during the coming month of June 2016, normal to above normal rainfall distribution is expected over Gambela, parts of Oromiya(West and East Wellega, Ilu Ababora, Jima, East and West ), parts of SNNPR (Guragie, Hadiya, Sidama, North Omo, Keficho and Shekicho),

Benishangul Gumuz, parts of Amhara (North and South Gonder, West Gojam and Awi Zone) and western Tigray. Therefore the expected favorable moisture condition would favor early season’s agricultural activities.

 Besides the rain would have a positive impact on the late sown long cycle crops to continuing their normal growth and development in the above mention areas. In addition to that it would have positive impact on the availability of pasture and drinking water in pastoral areas. Moreover near normal rainfall is anticipated over parts of Amhara (North and South Wello, North Shewa and Waghemra), parts of Tigray(East and South Tigray) and parts of Oromiya(West and East Harargie, Bale and Arsi).

 In most cases floods occur in the country as a result of prolonged heavy rainfall causing rivers to overflow and inundate areas along the river banks in lowland plains. Thus preparedness actions including dissemination of early warning information to population at risk, reinforcing flood protection structures in at-risk areas, and strengthening community mobilization and sensitization, communication between highland and downstream areas to prepare for likely runoffs, timely evacuation of communities at risk to higher grounds and provision of immediate emergency support is recommended.

 The ongoing massive relief supply in these drought affected areas continued to contribiute for stable market price trends. Similariy, in the dominantly maize consuming southern and eastern parts of the country market price for maize in May 2016 has remained stable compared to the preceeding month.

 Regionally, Afar recorded the highest decrease in TFP admissions by 34 percent from 2,901 (91.6% reporting rate) in March to 1,915 at 85.0 percent reporting rate in April.

 The decrease in TFP admission was linked with good belg/gu rains and different interventions that are going on during the reporting period. In Somali region, TFP admissions increased slightly by 3.5 percent in April compared to March.

 A total of 19 teams have been deployed across six regions in which different sectors were involved in each team .An orientation for the multi-agency team has been given on June 3, 2016. A total of 36 partners contributed for 2016 belg needs assessment. The contributions are above 100 percent in human resource, vehicle and financial support in contrast to the planned Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC

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May 2016 weather conditions

87 124 57 130 69 3659 30 600 78 41 116 115 500 75 66 145 99 400 196 69 130 41 10 153 193 300 133 183 171 90 123 44 66 200 149 58 228 78 82 108 154 184 46 119 100 243 24 30 98 157 102 45 175 29 50 50 232 86 87 265 151 141 355 358 66 89 90 25 318 121 194 91 63 303 54 171 358 526 187 133127 55 129 475 60 125 223 275 165 50176177 186 274 257 256 95 454 325 142 109 127 44 253 235 166 111 272 226 210 432 287 136 113 78 325 129 123186 79 132 189 41 14 376 110 282 89 45 239 233 145 73 102 394 16 202 16746 128 70 57

94 Map 2: Percent of normal rainfall distribution for May 2016 Map 1: Rainfall distribution in mm for the month of May 2016 Source: NMA

Source: NMA As can be seen from map 2, with the exception of northeastern Afar, south and southeastern Somali, During the month of May 2016, pocket areas of a few areas of central and eastern SNNPR western Oromiya exhibited falls greater than 400 including southwestern Oromiya the rest of the mm. Southeastern parts of Benishangul Gumuz, country experienced normal to above normal southeastern Gambella, parts of northwestern rainfall. SNNPR, parts of western and a few areas of southern Oromiya received falls ranging from 10 30 11 1011 8 9 300 - 400 mm. Most parts of Benishangul 7 7 14 4 25 Gumuz, parts of western and a few areas of 20 3 8 7 17 4 southern Oromiya, parts of central and eastern 15 11 20 8 10 2 16 19 16 1 15 Gambella, parts of northwestern SNNPR 17 10 8 4 2 11 5 25 17 7 10 6 23 4 16 10 experienced falls ranging from 200 – 300 mm. A 19 6 4 15 9 5 7 25 7 7 21 11 8 5 few areas of northern Tigray, most parts of 18 9 9 26 23 7 9 11 23 13 17 13 8 25 7 13 25 29 12 1316 Amhara, northern parts of Benishangul Gumuz, 9 7 19 9 13 24 24 16 8 6 10 14 22 20 27 8 most parts of central and western Oromiya, parts 29 25 17 11 17 4 21 19 11 12 26 20 7 20 24 of northern and central SNNPR experienced falls 17 11 19 20 14 15 23 13 6 ranging from 100 - 200 mm. Parts of Tigray and 13 10 3 22 9 12 13 3 21 18 15 12 eastern Amhara, most parts of northern, central 8 13 2 15 109 11 12

and southwestern Somali, southern and 5 northwestern parts Afar received falls ranging from 50 - 100 mm. The rest of the country 6 received falls less than 50 mm. Map 3: Number of Rainy day days for the month May 2016

Source: NMA

Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC

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Pocket areas of western Oromiya received falls in in order to minimize the effect of flood damage in greater than 25 rainy days. Southeastern the areas. Benishangul Gumuz, most parts of SNNPR, most parts of western and a few areas of southern Generally during the coming month of June 2016, Oromiya received falls in 20-25 rainy days. Most normal to above normal rainfall distribution is parts of western half of Amhara, a few areas of expected over Gambela, parts of Oromiya(West central and western margin of Oromiya and parts and East Wellega, Ilu Ababora, Jima, East and of northern and central SNNPR received falls in West Shewa), parts of SNNPR (Guragie, Hadiya, 15 -20 rainy days. Most parts of central and Sidama, North Omo, Keficho and Shekicho), western Tigray, central and northwestern Benishangul Gumuz, parts of Amhara (North and Amhara, central and southern Oromiya, central South Gonder, West Gojam and Awi Zone) and and western SNNPR received falls in 10 -15 western Tigray. Therefore the expected favorable rainy days. Southern and northern tip of Afar, moisture condition would favor early season’s most parts of eastern Tigray, most parts of agricultural activities. Besides it would have a northern and central Somali, parts of eastern and positive impact on the late sown long cycle crops southern Oromiya, southern and a few areas of to continuing their normal growth and eastern SNNPR received falls in 5 - 10 rainy days. development in the above mention areas. In Hence, the observed good distribution of rainfall addition to that it would have positive impact on could have positive impact on season’s the availability of pasture and drinking water in agricultural activities in the above-mentioned pastoral areas. Moreover near normal rainfall is areas. Besides, it could favor the availability of anticipated over parts of Amhara (North and pasture and drinking water over most parts of South Wello, North Shewa and Waghemra), parts pastoral areas of the country. The rest of the of Tigray(East and South Tigray) and parts of country received falls in less than 5 rainy days. Oromiya(West and East Harargie, Bale and Arsi).

Weather outlook and possible impact for the FLOOD SITUATION coming month/June 1-30, 2016 In , flood usually takes place at the peak Under normal circumstance the period Kiremt of the kiremt rainy season (July and August) in season known from June – September and western flood-prone areas. half of the country stars to get Kiremt rain during In most cases floods occur in the country as a the month of June. Particularly western and result of prolonged heavy rainfall causing rivers to southwestern parts of the country suppose to get overflow and inundate areas along the river banks better rainfall throughout the month under review. in lowland plains. Among the major river flood- In accordance with the National Meteorological prone areas are parts of and Afar regions Agency’s weather forecast Kiremt rain benefiting lying along the upper, middle and downstream areas of the country will have normal rainfall as plains of the ; parts of Somali region per normal condition. Better rainfall amount and along the Wabe Shebelle, Genale and Dawa distribution is expected particularly over Rivers; low-lying areas of Gambella along the northwestern, western and southwestern parts of Baro, Gilo, Alwero and Akobo Rivers; down- the country with a chance of heavy falls at places. stream areas along the Omo and Bilate Rivers in Thus the concerned personnel should take SNNPR and the extensive floodplains surrounding appropriate measures ahead of time in low-lying Lake Tana and the banks of Gumera, Rib and areas, near river banks and in areas where the soil Megech Rivers in Amhara Flash flood is type is clay(with low water percolation capacity)

Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC

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characterized by sudden onset with little lead time and Abaya woredas in ; Girar Jarso, for early warning and often resulting in Yaya Gulele, and Kimbibit woredas in North considerable damage on lives, livelihoods and Shewa zone; Merti, Seru, and Chole woredas in property. ; Shala, Siraro and Shashemene Zuria woredas in ; and Hawi Gudina, FLOOD RISK AREAS:- Floods are anticipated Oda Bultum and Habro woredas in West Hararghe in many areas where normal to above-normal zone. rains are expected. Predicting the occurrence of flash floods in particular areas could be Tigray: South, Southwestern, Central and challenging hence areas other than the below Southeastern parts including Alamata, Raya listed woredas could be affected. Based on the Azebo, Adwa, Maichew, and Humera. NMA forecast for kiremt and considering information from historical data, analogue years Afar: , , , Ab’ala and and regional information, the following areas are woredas in Zone 2; , , identified as likely to be affected by river and and Aysayita woredas in Zone 1; flash floods during the upcoming kiremt season. , , , Awash SNNPR: Bonke, Boreda and Mirab-Abaya Fentale, and woredas in Zone 3 and woredas in ; , and Yallo woredas in Zone 4. Nyangatom, , Jinka Town, and Amhara: Fogera, Libo Kemkem, Simada, and in ; Loka Abaya and Dera woredas in South Gonder zone; Dembia, Awasa Zuria woredas in Sidama zone; , Gonder Zuria, and Chilga woredas in North Dugna Fango, Damot Woide, and Kindo Didaye Gonder zone; Semen Achefer, Debub Achefer, woredas in ; Shashego and Limu Zuria, and Dega Damot woredas in zones in ; Meskan, Mareko and West Gojjam; , Gidan, Guba Lafto, Habru, Butajira woredas in Gurage zone; Siltie, Sankura, Meket, and Kobo woredas in ; Lanfuro, and Dalocha woredas in Siltie zone; Kalu and Tehuledere woredas and Ambassel, , , and Dessie and Kombolcha Towns in South Wollo woredas in Kembata zone; zone; Kewet, and Antsokia Gemza woredas and Town and Alaba Special Woreda. Tarma Ber and Efratana Gidim Towns in North Somali: Kelafo, Mustahil, Ferfer, Gode, Shewa zone; Dewa Chefa, Artuma Fursi, and Jile Bera’ano, Adadile, and East Imy woredas in Timuga woredas and Kemissie Town in Oromia Shebelle zone; West Imy, Cherati, Dolo Bay, zone; woreda in Wag Hemra zone. Elkere, Hargele and Dolo Bay, woredas in Afder Gambella: Gambela Zuria, Itang, Jor, Gog, zone; Dolo Ado woreda in Liben zone; Erer, Dimma woredas in Agnuak zone; Lare, Jikawo, Mieso, Hadigala, Afdem and Shinile woredas in Akobo and Wantowa woredas in Nuer zone. Sitti zone; and Babile and Jigjiga woredas in Benishangul Gumuz: Asosa woreda. Pocket Fafan zone. areas in Dire Dawa Administrative Council, Harari region and Addis Ababa City Oromia: Liben woreda in ; and Legehida, Gassera, Agarfa and Gololcha woredas In line with the anticipated flood situation in the in ; Dodota, Zeway , and Hitosa above-mentioned areas immediate early warning, in Arsi zone; Boset, , Dugda, Lome, Wenji mitigation and preparedness measures including and Bora in ; , Sebeta scaling up water harvesting, water treatment, Awas and Illu in Southwest Shewa zone; Gelana sanitation and hygiene promotion, prevention and

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surveillance of communicable diseases, enhancing birr (2 percent) from April 2016. Most markets other health and nutrition interventions ought to are supplied with grains transported from the be conducted to minimize the likely impacts of surplus producing areas of western and north flood on lives and livelihoods. Similarly, western parts of the country. preparedness actions including dissemination of On the other hand, market price in May 2016 is early warning information to population at risk, significantly higher compared to prices in May reinforcing flood protection structures in at-risk 2015. In particular in markets in the severly areas, and strengthening community mobilization drought affected northeastern Ethiopia, the rate of and sensitization, communication between increase for the major locally grown sorghum is as highland and downstream areas to prepare for high as 100 percent in some markets. In Mehoni likely runoffs, timely evacuation of communities market in Southern Tigray, for example, the at risk to higher grounds and provision of current sorghum price of 1194 birr per quintal is immediate emergency support is recommended. It more than twice the price in May 2015 (566 birr is also advised that regional flood task forces are per quintal). Other markets in southern Ethiopia reactivated and multi-agency flood impact rapid showed significant increases in maize prices assessments are conducted and findings shared compared to a similar month last year. Maize timely relevant actors at regional and federal prices in May 2016 in Wenago and Shashemene level. Precedence should be given for pre- markets were higher by 22 and 15 percent from positioning of food and non-food items for May 2015, respectively. Prices in May 2016 were immediate response with particular emphasis to also higher compared to last three years average. areas that may become inaccessible. Wenago market, for instance May 2016 showed about 4 percent increase from the last three years MARKET SITUATION average (See Graph). The main reason for the Staple prices stable in most markets since last increase is the much below average crop month production due to severe drough trigerred by the Despite decline in the supply of locally grown staple cereals in the north eastern and eastern parts of the country, market prices of staple cereals in most markets remained stable or showed 0 to 5 percent increase in May 2016 compared April 2016. The ongoing massive relief supply in these drought affected areas continued to contribiute for stable market price trends. Similariy, in the dominantly maize consuming southern and eastern parts of the country market price for maize in May 2016 has remained stable compared to the preceeding occurrence of a strong El Ninoduring the last month. For instance, maize price in Wenago Meher season. Poor production last year has now market in SNNP Region in May 2016 (580 depressed market supply which in turn led to birr/100 kg) has only exhibited an increase of 10 substantial increaes in market prices.Sheep and

Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC

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goat prices in May 2016showed a slight to TSF beneficiaries: In the first quarter, the total significant decline compared to April 2016 after number of beneficiaries of MAM cases reached major holidays were over.. Goat prices in May 546,258 out of planned 665,067 (82 percent). 2016 in Shashemene of Oromia and Mehal Meda 473,576 (63.1 percent) deliveries were conformed of Amhara displayed a 5 and 23 percent decline (reached by SNFs) out of planned target of from April 2016 respectively. However, shoat 750,618 in the second quarter. So far 638,663 prices in May 2016 were either stable or showed beneficiaries have been allocated food but the an average of 5 to 10 percent increase compared uplift (dispatch and delivery) of commodities to last year (May 2015) (Table 1) by government transport from WFP warehouses in some of the regions has been slow. On another note, prices for cattle has continued to Amhara and Oromia regions are with very low exhibit an increaseing pattern again in May 2016 dispatch and delivery status while Afar is with following increased in demand due to extensive land preparation in most markets in the country very high status. however prices of cattle in particuar oxen is lower Belg needs assessment: ENCU involved in than the price in May 2015. logistic coordination, nutrition briefing materials preparation and presentation at the belg needs assessment briefing session. A total of 19 teams NUTRITION arrangements have been done across six regions in which different sectors were involved in each team, namely health and nutrition, water, Situation: Based on the TFP monthly reports education, agriculture, livestock, metrology, child from 8 regions, a total of 29,119 SAM cases were protection, etc… admitted in 15,870 TFP sites with 87.1 percent reporting rate in April. TFP admission trend at A total of 36 partners contributed for 2016 belg national level decreased in April 2016 by about 6 needs assessment. The contributions are above percent from March levels, however, the trend 100 percent in human resource, vehicle and from January – April is the highest (Fig. 1) financial support in contrast to the planned (Table compared to the previous years (2010 – 2015) of 2). the same months with a reporting rates above

80%. Regionally, Afar recorded the highest decrease in Planned Contributed % TFP admissions by 34 percent from 2,901 (91.6% Human Resource 152 201 132% reporting rate) in March to 1,915 at 85.0 percent Vehicle 95 142 149% reporting rate in April. In the month of April, TFP Financial 56,000 USD 60,000 USD 107% admissions decreased by 27 percent in Tigray Table 2: Planned and contributed in human region, by 6 percent in , by 1.2 resource, vehicle and financial percent in Oromia region, by 13 percent in SNNP region compared to the March admissions. The An orientation for the multi-agency team has been decrease was linked with good belg/gu rains and given on June 3, 2016 and all the teams have been different interventions that are going on during the deployed to the field. reporting period. In Somali region, TFP admissions increased slightly by 3.5 percent in April compared to March.

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Fig. 1: National

Fig. 1: National (Ethiopia) Trends in Severe Acute Malnutrition Admissions (2010 – 2016)

Table 1: Dispatch and delivery status by region

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Fig. 2: Hotspot, General Food Distribution and TFP woredas, June 2016

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Annex 1

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Annex 2

Early Warning and Response Directorate, NDRMC