The 2010 election has the mould of British politics finally cracked?

14 Journal of Liberal History 68 Autumn 2010 The 2010 election has the mould of British politics finally cracked?

Of one thing we espite disappoint- campaign, beginning with the ment on the night, budget unveiled by Alistair Dar- can be sure: the 2010 the overall outcome ling shortly before the election election will acquire was a hung parlia- date was formally announced. ment, and, following Even before the first leaders’ a large entry in the Dlargely unexpected concessions debate on 15 April there had been from the Conservatives on elec- some sign that the party might annals of Liberal toral reform, Liberal Democrat be managing to push its support Democrat history. The MPs found themselves sitting on above the 20 per cent mark, a level the Treasury front bench for the below which it had been stuck for campaign came alive first time since 1945. After more much of the previous five years. than sixty years in the political Even so, the impact of that first for the party when, wilderness, the party acquired a debate on the party’s poll rating following the first- role on the centre stage of British is clear. In the week following the politics. first debate, the party’s average ever televised prime Less certain, however, is what rating was nine points higher than that entry on the 2010 election it had been the week before. With ministerial debate in will eventually say about the sig- the party three points ahead of nificance of these events. Will it Labour and only two behind the the UK, the party’s state that the 2010 election was the Conservatives, it appeared that for poll rating reached decisive moment when the mould the first time ever in polling his- of Britain’s two-party political tory a UK general election was a the 30 per cent mark system was finally cracked? Or three-horse race. Inevitably there might it record, instead, that the was much talk of a Liberal Demo- for the first time election was but a brief moment of crat ‘breakthrough’. during the course of apparent success that ultimately, However, there were always much like the polls during the warning signs in the polls that this a general election. campaign, proved to be a mirage – sudden surge of support might or even a poisoned chalice? Which not be sustained through to poll- However, on polling of these entries comes to be writ- ing day. More than one poll found day itself the party’s ten will, of course, depend in part that those who said that they were on how the electorate reacts to the going to back the Liberal Demo- hopes were dashed, record of the coalition govern- crats were also more likely than Nick Clegg and ment and of the Liberal Democrat Conservative or Labour support- and, instead of making Vince Cable face ministers within it. Nevertheless, ers to indicate that they might a breakthrough, it the cameras in there is much that can already be change their mind by the time Bradford, 13 April revealed by taking a closer look at they came to vote. Liberal Demo- actually found itself 2010 – between the rollercoaster ride that the 2010 crat support also appeared to be them, David election proved to be for the party. relatively high amongst those who with slightly fewer Ward, who Let us begin with that ‘surge’ said they did not vote last time – seats then before. John went on to win in party support in the campaign including many younger people the Bradford opinion polls. Table 1 provides – and the strength of whose com- Curtice analyses the East seat details of the average rating of mitment to vote this time might (photo: Liberal the parties during each of the be doubted, Meanwhile fewer 2010 election. Democrats) key phases of the 2010 election voters said they thought that the

Journal of Liberal History 68 Autumn 2010 15 the 2010 election: has the mould of british politics finally cracked?

Table 1: Summary of opinion polls, 2010 election campaign There is certainly a degree of Con % Lab % LD % Others % evidence that some of the weight- ing of their samples undertaken Post-budget 37 30 19 14 by the polls to improve their NI/C4 debate 38 30 20 12 accuracy may have helped con- After Easter 39 30 19 12 tribute to their apparent over- estimating of Liberal Democrat Manifesto launches 37 31 21 11 support. However, it also seems Post 1st leaders’ debate 32 27 30 11 that a significant number of vot- Post 2nd leaders’ debate 34 27 29 10 ers who had told the pollsters that Post 3rd leaders’ debate 35 27 28 10 they did not know how they were going to vote eventually swal- Final polls 36 28 27 10 lowed their reservations and voted Labour anyway, thereby helping Chart based on all published polls, conducted wholly or mostly between the following dates: Post-budget, 25–29 March; NI/C4 debate, 29 March–2 April; after Easter, 4–10 April; manifesto launches, 10–15 April; post to open up the gap between the 1st leaders’ debate, 15–22 April; post 2nd leaders’ debate, 22–29 April; post 3rd leaders’ debate, 29 April–3 two parties. In any event, it seems May; final polls, 3–5 May. likely that the annals will have to record that, although during the 2010 campaign the Liberal Dem- ocrats mounted what at the time Table 2: How the Liberal Democrat performance varied appeared to be the most serious First party/second party 2005 Mean change in Liberal Democrat challenge yet to the dominance share of vote since 2005 of the Conservative and Labour parties, in reality that challenge Conservative/Labour +3.3 – built on the back of a just a sin- Labour/Conservative +0.6 gle television performance – was Conservative/Liberal Democrat +0.5 based on support that was too soft, Labour/Liberal Democrat +0.4 sudden and insubstantial. Yet there is also a danger that Liberal Democrat/Conservative –0.4 the high expectations gener- Liberal Democrat/Labour –0.9 ated by the opinion polls lead us ALL SEATS +0.8 to undervalue what the Liberal Democrats’ achieved in 2010. Set Seats where any party other than Conservative, Labour or Liberal Democrat was first or second in 2005 are against the longer-term histori- not shown separately, but are included in the calculation for ‘All Seats’. cal record, the performance still appears highly impressive. The party secured the second high- Liberal Democrats had the best of the vote cast across Great Brit- est share of the vote to be won by policies on any particular issue ain represented just a one-point the Liberal Democrats or any of than said they were going to vote increase on its tally at the last elec- its predecessor parties at any elec- for the party. In truth, the surge tion in 2005. Far from challenging tion since 1923 – only the Liberal/ appeared heavily dependent on for second place in votes, the party SDP Alliance vote of 26 per cent Nick Clegg’s newfound personal still trailed Labour by as much as in 1983 outranks it. Similarly, popularity and his apparent abil- six points. Meanwhile, with fifty- although the party’s tally of fifty- ity to tap into the disenchantment seven members, the parliamentary seven seats was five less than in with politics many people felt in party now contained five fewer 2005, it still represented the par- the wake of the MPs’ expenses members than it did immediately ty’s second highest total since 1929 scandal. These always looked after the 2005 contest. After the (when, leaving aside two univer- like potentially relatively fragile high expectations generated by sity seats, the Liberal Party also foundations on which to build a the campaign, the eventual out- won fifty-seven seats). In short the breakthrough come came as a bitter blow. party’s performance in 2010 was Certainly, as polling day Indeed, it was a blow more bit- one of its best since it lost its status approached it was becoming ter than might reasonably have as the principal competitor to the increasingly clear that the surge been expected even on a pessimis- Conservatives in the 1920s. was slowly receding: Nick Clegg tic reading of the opinion polls. That such a performance proved unable to outshine his Even if the trend of declining sup- should have been greeted with rivals in the second and third lead- port had continued further in the an air of disappointment is in ers’ debates, and after each one the final hours of the campaign, the truth an indication of the signifi- party’s support fell by a point or party might still have expected to cant longer-term progress that so. By the time that the final opin- win at least a quarter of the vote. the party has made and is now ion polls were published on poll- The extent of the discrepancy regarded as part of the country’s ing day, it appeared that the party between the eventual outcome political fabric. The party has now was at risk of losing the race for and the final polls clearly raises won over fifty seats at three gen- second place in votes. questions as to whether the opin- eral elections in a row. Between And so proved to be the case. ion polls exaggerated the scale of 1945 and 1992 it had never man- At 23.6 per cent, the party’s share the surge in the first place. aged to win as many as two dozen.

16 Journal of Liberal History 68 Autumn 2010 the 2010 election: has the mould of british politics finally cracked?

Although the first-past-the-post support quite substantially com- where it could profit most, Table electoral system may still make prised those who first captured 2 suggests there was another nota- life difficult for the party, the 2010 their seat in 2005 and were thus ble variation in the pattern of the result confirms not only that is defending it for the first time. On Liberal Democrat performance it able routinely to garner some- average their vote increased by 3.1 – that the party found it easier to where between a fifth and a quar- points – doubtless many of them gain ground in areas of Conserva- ter of the vote, but also that it is had managed to use their first tive strength than in those where better able than in the past to turn few years as the local MP to boost Labour was relatively strong. This those votes into seats. their local profile and thus their was indeed the case. Apart from Nevertheless, it might still be support. Only one such ‘new’ MP doing relatively poorly in those asked why the party ended up was defeated: Julia Goldsworthy seats where Labour were weak- with fewer seats than in 2005, in Camborne & Redruth, where est of all in 2005 (most of which even though it won slightly more a 1.6 point increase in her vote were places where the Liberal votes. After all, if the changes in proved insufficient to stem an Democrats are relatively strong) the shares of the vote won by the even stronger pro-Tory tide. the stronger Labour were in 2005, different parties had been uniform Equally, a glance at the eight Well-estab- the less likely it was that the Lib- across the country as a whole, the seats that the party gained in par- eral Democrat vote increased Liberal Democrats would have tial compensation for the thir- lished sit- between 2005 and 2010. Thus, in secured sixty-four seats, two more teen that it lost also indicates the seats where Labour won between than in 2005, so votes were cer- importance of personal local ting Liberal 20 and 40 per cent of the vote tainly not converted into seats popularity in achieving success. in 2005, the Liberal Democrat as effectively as five years ago. Two of these ’gains’ were in fact Democrat vote increased on average by Table 2 gives us an initial clue. It achieved by existing Liberal Dem- just under two and a half points, shows that the party’s vote typi- ocrat MPs – Lorely Burt in Soli- MPs whose while in seats where Labour won cally advanced most strongly in hull and Sarah Teather in Brent more than 40 per cent in 2005, seats where it was least likely to Central – who, on account of personal the increase in the Liberal Dem- bring the party a reward, that is boundary changes, found them- ocrat vote averaged just under in constituencies where it started selves fighting seats that it was vote was half a percent. The party per- off in third place. Meanwhile, estimated the party would not formed especially poorly in one the party’s vote actually fell back have won in 2005. Both secured first accrued traditional Labour stronghold in somewhat in those seats it was substantial increases in their sup- particular – Scotland. Here the attempting to defend. Such a pat- port of 3.5 and no less than 13.1 some time party’s vote actually fell back by tern is of course the very opposite points respectively. Meanwhile no less than 3.7 points, while, in of what is needed if votes are to be five of the six remaining gains ago were sharp contrast to the position in turned into seats. were secured by candidates who typically able England and Wales, Labour’s vote The party struggled above all had also stood locally in 2005 (if increased by 2.5 points. in those seats that were not being not also earlier) and who doubt- to do little This is the very reverse of what defended by an incumbent Lib- less had devoted considerable happened in the 2005 election. eral Democrat MP. In the ten seats time and effort to getting them- more than Then, the party advanced most where this was the case (including selves known locally. Strong per- strongly in areas of relative Labour York Outer, a new seat that it was formances by the party leader hold their strength, areas that had hitherto estimated would have been won on television may help create a often been relatively barren for by the Liberal Democrats if it had favourable backdrop for achiev- own – and the party and a pattern that helped been contested in 2005), the party’s ing electoral success, but it appears it make record gains at Labour’s vote fell on average by no less than that the party cannot afford to for- not always expense at that election. Voters in 4.7 points. Six of these seats were get the importance of sustained areas of Labour strength who were lost. In the remaining fifty-two local activity if votes are to be that – while disaffected with Labour demon- seats that the party was defend- turned into seats. strated an unprecedented will- ing, the party’s vote increased a In any event, it is now clear the party ingness to vote Liberal Democrat little on average, by 0.6 of a point. why the party ended up with – and especially so in seats with Only seven of these fifty-two seats fewer seats at Westminster. Well- often lost relatively large numbers of Mus- were lost, albeit including the most established sitting Liberal Demo- lims and students, as the issues of spectacular defeat of all, of Lembit crat MPs whose personal vote was ground Iraq and tuition fees in particular Opik in Montgomery, a seat that first accrued some time ago were took their toll on Labour support. the party had previously only lost typically able to do little more where the While not all the party’s relative once in 130 years. than hold their own – and not incumbent advance in Muslim and student This loss of support where the always that – while the party often seats in 2005 was reversed, most incumbent MP stood down sug- lost ground where the incumbent MP stood of the relative progress secured in gests that the personal local popu- MP stood down and his or her Labour territory was in fact lost in larity of individual candidates still personal vote was lost. Mean- down and his 2010. plays an important role in ena- while, scattered local successes As a result, although the bling the party to win and retain elsewhere proved insufficient to or her per- party made five gains at Labour’s seats. Other evidence points to compensate for the seats that were expense in 2010 – more than it the same conclusion. The one lost as a consequence. sonal vote had done in all elections between group of Liberal Democrat MPs However, apart from a ten- 1945 and 2001, though less than that did manage to increase their dency for the party to advance less was lost. the eleven secured in 2005 – the

Journal of Liberal History 68 Autumn 2010 17 the 2010 election: has the mould of british politics finally cracked?

party still finds itself fighting the Liberal Democrats between them ‘The more they Two key lessons for the party Conservatives locally in more potentially had just enough seats argue, the more can be drawn from this experi- places than it fights Labour. together with their allied parties in they sound the ence. The first is that its opportu- Whereas there are now forty seats Northern Ireland to be able to sus- same’ – Nick nity to exercise influence does not where the Liberal Democrats and tain a government. Between them Clegg in the first simply depend on how many MPs the Conservatives share first and these parties had 319 seats, only TV debate, 15 it has, but also on the balance of second place and are within 10 per four short of an effective majority April 2010; and its opponents’ forces. The party’s cent of each other, there are only given the failure of five Sinn Fein voters show their influence is at its maximum when twenty-six where Labour and the MPs to take their seats. True, such approval not only does no single party have Liberal Democrats are in the same a government would be reliant a majority, but Conservative and position – even though nationally on the support of the Scottish and Labour have roughly the same Labour performed poorly in 2010. Welsh nationalists, Caroline Lucas number of MPs such that a deal The party thus remains more vul- of the Greens and the Independent with either party would produce nerable to a Conservative than to MP, Lady Hermon, but all of them an overall majority. The out- a Labour advance in the polls. had good reason to prefer such a come of the 2010 election was far Yet it is with the Conservatives government to a Conservative one from perfect in that regard – the that the party now shares power, – and especially so if it were to be arithmetical foundations of any following the failure of any party committed to significant electoral Labour/Liberal Democrat gov- to secure an overall majority for reform. ernment would undoubtedly only the second time in the post- Faced with the danger of being have been fragile – but it was suf- war era. It was an outcome that few denied power, Mr Cameron ficiently close to give the party had anticipated. Whatever else the proved unexpectedly flexible on more leverage than it has ever had two parties had in common, there his attitude to the electoral sys- before in the post-war period. appeared to be one major obstacle tem. His opening offer to the Lib- Secondly, however, being able to the possibility of the two parties eral Democrats – of a commission to exercise such leverage implies doing a deal: the Conservatives’ on electoral reform – may have a willingness to strike a deal with apparently resolute defence of the been obviously too little to form either Labour or the Conservatives first-past-the-post electoral system the basis of an agreement, but it – and not to privilege a prior pref- that the Liberal Democrats have signalled an appreciation of the erence to do a deal with one rather long regarded as unfair. Labour, in importance of the issue to the Lib- than the other. In other words, contrast, had signalled a renewed eral Democrats. Eventually, after the party has to accept that it is a interest in electoral reform, with a long weekend of negotiations, ‘hinge’ party that sometimes does a a promise in its manifesto to hold the Conservatives signed up to deal with Labour, sometimes with a referendum on the introduction the Labour proposal that they had the Conservatives – and does not of the alternative vote. Mean- hitherto opposed: a referendum regard coalition as the first phase in while many a Labour and Liberal on the alternative vote, a refer- some form of realignment of either Democrat activist feels that the endum that has now been sched- the ‘right’ or the ‘left’. two parties have a natural affinity uled to take place at the beginning It is with this logic in mind that that some hope might eventually of May next year. In contrast, the value of the deal on electoral result in some kind of ‘realignment Labour’s divisions on the sub- reform with the Conservatives has of the left’, the first stage of which ject of electoral reform were laid to be judged. There is no doubt might be the formation of a coali- bare as a number of its prominent that, if implemented, the alterna- tion government between the two members, most notably David tive vote would produce far from parties. Blunkett and John Reid, indi- a proportional outcome, and still However, the parliamentary cated on the air waves that they leave the Liberal Democrats at arithmetic presented David Cam- felt doing a deal with the Liberal some considerable disadvantage eron with a dilemma. His party Democrats on electoral reform in turning votes into seats. Tak- might be the clear ‘winner’ of was a price not worth paying in ing into account the evidence the election, but Labour and the order to stay in power. on the second preferences of

18 Journal of Liberal History 68 Autumn 2010 the 2010 election: has the mould of british politics finally cracked? voters collected by ComRes for between twenty-eight and thirty. a number of reasons – the aver- The Independent shortly before So, together with the representa- age electorate in seats won by polling day, it can be estimated tion secured by the Liberal Demo- the Conservatives is higher than that if the system had been in crats, it has become the norm for in those won by Labour, as is the place in 2010, the party would still the Commons to contain some turnout, while the Conservatives only have won some seventy-nine eighty to ninety MPs belonging are also somewhat less success- seats, only twenty-two more than to parties other than Conservative ful than Labour at winning seats it secured under the current sys- or Labour. That in itself has made by small majorities. This bias may tem, and just 12 per cent of the hung parliaments more likely. be reduced somewhat at the next total seats in the Commons. However, the ability of first election if the new government is Even so, the potential impact of past the post to generate an overall successful in implementing its aim the alternative vote on the party’s majority for either Conservative of reducing the disparity in the bargaining power is considerable. or Labour also depends on there size of constituencies. But while If we look further at what might being a plentiful supply of seats such action may make it somewhat have happened if that system had that are marginal between those easier for the Conservatives to been in place in 2010, the Conserv- two parties. If a small lead for one win an overall majority in future, atives, with 281 seats, would not of those parties in votes is to be equally it will become more diffi- have been far ahead of Labour on transformed into a lead in seats cult for Labour to do so. The over- 262. On these figures the Liberal that is big enough to give it an all width of the range of results that Democrats would have been able overall majority, then many a seat would produce a hung parliament to form a majority government needs to change hands between is unlikely to be affected – and in collaboration with either of its those parties as a result of the would encompass more or less any two bigger rivals. So introduc- swing of the national pendulum. reasonably narrow Conservative or ing the alternative vote could well However, the number of such Labour lead in votes. have a bigger impact on the Liberal seats fell markedly in the 1970s, So the hung parliament in 2010 Democrats’ future prospects than primarily because the northern was not a one-off accident. It was immediately meets the eye. and more urban half of Britain the product of long-term and now This perhaps is even more became increasingly Labour and well-established changes in the clearly the case if we consider the southern and more rural half electoral geography of Britain. what the Liberal Democrats more Conservative, leaving fewer As a result, even if the alternative might do with such bargain- and fewer seats potentially repre- vote were not to be introduced, ing power. One obvious option sentative of the national mood. hung parliaments could well would be to press for yet further The trend was reversed some- still be quite common in future electoral reform to something what when New Labour had – potentially giving the Liberal more clearly proportional than some success in the 1990s in chas- Democrats new opportunities to the alternative vote. That suggests ing southern voters, but after the exercise leverage to have the sys- that switching to the alternative 2010 election the number of mar- tem changed even if the vote next vote may be no more than a stag- ginal seats has fallen once more to May is lost. ing post in a move towards a more So the hung around half the level it was in the The 2010 election undoubtedly proportional system. Viewed in 1950s and 1960s. contained its disappointments and that light the outcome of the ref- parliament The combination of fewer setbacks for the Liberal Demo- erendum vote next May would marginal seats and more third- crats. It was a salutary reminder certainly seem to be crucial. in 2010 was party MPs has profoundly under- of the limitations of what can Yet curiously this may not be mined the ability of first past the be achieved with a successful the case after all. For we also have not a one-off post to generate overall majori- national election campaign and to consider why first past the post ties. This can be seen by looking of the continued importance of failed to deliver David Cameron accident. at the range of results that would long-term activity by popular his majority in the first place. produce a hung parliament if we candidates and MPs in their con- Was it simply an accident that is It was the assume that support for the Liberal stituencies. The party still finds unlikely to be repeated any time Democrats and other smaller par- it harder to mount a challenge in soon? Or did it signal a more pro- product ties remains as it was in 2010, and Labour territory than in Conserv- found change in British politics, then investigate what the outcome ative seats. But at the same time it whereby hung parliaments are of long- in seats would be as a result of was an election that demonstrated likely to be more common even if various uniform national swings how the first-past-the-post system first past the post remains in place? term and from the 2010 result between has now become significantly less We have already noted the now well- Labour and the Conservatives. effective at denying the party lev- long-term growth in Liberal Such an exercise reveals that any erage. Meanwhile, limited though Democrat representation in the established outcome between an 11.2-point the reform might at first appear, House of Commons. The party lead for the Conservatives and a introducing the alternative vote is not alone in its challenge to the changes in 2.7-point lead for Labour would would increase that leverage yet Conservative and Labour domi- produce a hung parliament. further. There does indeed now nation of the Commons. Before the electoral This range is, of course, asym- seem to be a substantial crack in the 1970s, typically only two or metrical. It is currently harder the mould of British politics. three independent or minor party geography of for the Conservatives to secure a MPs were elected. At each of the majority than Labour. This reflects John Curtice is Professor of Politics at last four elections, there have been Britain. a ‘bias’ in the system that arises for Strathclyde University.

Journal of Liberal History 68 Autumn 2010 19