e 1995 International Monetary Fund

February 1995

IMF Staff Country Report No. 95/16

Trinidad and Tobago—Economic Developments and Selected Background Issues

This report on economic developments and selected background issues in Trinidad and Tobago was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with this member country. In releasing this document for public use, confidential material may have been removed at the request of the member.

Copies of this report are available to the public from International Monetary Fund • Publication Services 700 19th Street, N.W. • Washington, D.C. 20431 Telephone: (202) 623-7430 • Telefax: (202) 623-7201 Telex (RCA): 248331 IMF UR Internet: [email protected] Price: $15.00 a copy

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©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND

TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO

Economic Developments and Selected Background Issues

Prepared by a staff mission consisting of Samuel Itam, Paul Mathieu, Carlos Medeiros, Obert Nyawata, Jingping Yang, Michael Lewin (IBRD), and Jyoti Shukla (IBRD)

Approved by the Western Hemisphere Department

January 11, 1995

Contents Page

Basic Data v-vi

I. Introduction 1

II. Retrospective 1

III. Recent Economic Developments 3

1. Developments in 1992-93 3 2. Developments in 1994 6

IV. Economic Structure, Investment and Savings 10

1. Oil/gas sector 10 2. Agriculture 11 3. Nonpetroleum manufacturing sector 12 4. Nontradable sector 13 5. Investment 13 a. Public sector investment 13 b. Private investment 14 6. National savings and financing of investment activities 14 7. Labor productivity 15

V. Recent Developments and Policies in the Labor Market 21

1. Labor force and unemployment 21 2. Some explanations for the unemployment 22 3. Alleviation policies 24

VI. Social Safety Net Programs 35

1. Programs 35 2. Issues 37

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Contents Page

VII. Financial Liberalization 40

1. Financial controls and repression 40 2. Liberalization measures 43 3. Results of liberalization 44

Appendix--The Structure of the Financial System 49

VIII. The Demand for Currency and Broad Money 51

Appendix I--Cointegration, Error Correction Mechanisms and Money Demand Function 57

Appendix II--Time Series Properties and Diagnostic Tests 63

IX. An Assessment of the Sustainability of Public Sector Debt 65

1. A balance sheet approach 65 2. A fiscal sustainability approach 67 3. A debt capacity approach 68 4. Conclusions 69

X. Indicators of Competitiveness 73

1. Overall trends 73 2. Export production 73 3. Imports and import substitution 74

Text Tables

1. Selected Economic and Financial Indicators 9 2. Sectoral Contribution to Real Growth of Gross Domestic Product 16 3. Ratios of Gross Domestic Product by Sector of Origin 17 4. Manufacturing Production by Activity at 1985 Prices 18 5. Savings and Investment 19 6. Investment by Sector and Activity 20 7. Labor Force and Employment 28 8. Unemployed Persons Who Did Not Look For Work During the Survey Week by Reasons 29 9. Total Unemployed by Age Group and Occupational Group 30 10. Total Unemployed by Age Group and Administrative Area 31 11. Total Unemployment by Gender, Duration of Unemployment and Age Group 32 12. Central Government Expenditure Targeted at the Poor 39 13. Selected Indicators for the Financial Sector 45 14. Number of Financial Institutions 47 15. Monthly Real Interest Rates 48 16. Unit Root Test 61

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Contents Page

17. Tests of Cointegration 62 18. Indicators of Nonfinancial Public Sector Debt Sustainability 72 19. Indicators of Competitiveness 75 Statistical Appendix Tables 20. Gross Domestic Product by Sector of Origin at Constant 1985 Prices 76 21. Gross Domestic Product by Sector of Origin at Current Market Prices 77 22. Implicit GDP Deflators by Sectors 78 23. National Accounts by Final Expenditure at 1985 prices 79 24. National Accounts by Final Expenditure at Current Market Prices 80 25. Savings and Investment at Current Market Prices 81 26. Production and Utilization of Crude Oil and Refined Products 82 27. Retail Price Index 83 28. Index of Producer Prices by Industry 84 29. Domestic Prices of Selected Refined Petroleum Products 85 30. Labor Force and Employment 86 31. Employment in the Public Enterprises 87 32. Indices of Production, Earnings, Employment, and Costs in Manufacturing 88 33. Index of Minimum Wage Rates for Production and Ancillary Workers by Industry 89 34. Overall Nonfinancial Public Sector Operations 90 35. Summary of Central Government Budgetary Operations 91 36. Central Government Revenue 92 37. Ratios of Central Government Revenue 93 38. Central Government Expenditure 94 39. Ratios of Central Government Expenditure 95 40. Functional Classification of Central Government Expenditure 96 41. Central Government Transfers to Public Enterprises 97 42. Summary of Central Government Financing 98 43. Outstanding Central Government Domestic Debt 99 44. Summary of Nonfinancial Public Enterprises 100 45. Consolidated Financial Operations of Public Utilities 101 46. Operations of the Electricity Commission (T&TEC) 102 47. Operations of the Port Authority 103 48. Operations of the Public Transport Service Corporation (PTSC) 104 49. Operations of the Telecommunications Services (TSTT) 105 50. Operations of the Water and Sewerage Authority (WASA) 106 51. Consolidated Financial Operations of State Enterprises 107 52. Operations of Caroni Ltd. 108 53. Operations of BWIA International Airways Corporation 109 54. Operations of the Iron and Steel Company of Trinidad and Tobago (ISCOTT) 110 55. Consolidated Energy Sector Enterprises 111

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Contents Page 56. Operations of Trinidad and Tobago Petroleum Company (TRINTOPEC) 112 57. Operations of the National Gas Company 113 58. Operations of Trinidad and Tobago Methanol Company Ltd. 114 59. Consolidated Financial Operations of Enterprises Included in the Budget for Statutory Boards and Similar Bodies 115 60. Summary Operations of the National Insurance Board (NIB) 116 61. Summary Accounts of the Financial System 117 62. Origin, Destination, and Financing of Credit Extended by the Consolidated Financial System 118 63. Liabilities of the Financial System to the Private Sector 119 64. Summary Accounts of the Monetary System 120 65. Commercial Banks--Loans and Advances 122 66. Liquidity Position of Commercial Banks 123 67. Accounts of Nonbank Financial Institutions (NBFIs) 124 68. Reserve Position of Nonbank Financial Institutions (NBFIs) 127 69. Summary Accounts of Development Banks 128 70. Market Value of Trading in Securities on the Stock Exchange 129 71. Investments by Self-Administered Pension Plans 130 72. Insurance Companies Statutory Fund - Securities Held in Trust (Long-Term Business) 131 73. Interest Rates 132 74. International Reserves 133 75. Summary Balance of Payments, 1990-94 134 76. Summary of Current Income 135 77. Summary of Nonfactor Services 136 78. Summary of Capital Account 137 79. Summary of Exports, f.o.b. 138 80. Summary of Imports, c.i.f. 139 81. Trade with CARICOM Countries 140 82. Indices of the Terms of Trade 141 83. Indices of Volume, Value and Unit Value of Selected Exports 142 84. Outstanding External Public Debt by Borrower, Lender, and Maturity 143 85. Public Sector External Debt by Creditor 144 86. Public Sector External Debt by Currency Composition 146 87. Direction of Trade 147 88. Exchange Rates 148 Charts 1. Developments in the Oil/Gas Sector lOa 2. Distribution of Public Investment 14a 3. Domestic Savings 14b 4. Productivity and Wage Costs 16a 5. Financial Indicators 42a 6. Selected Interest Rates 42b

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Trinidad and Tobago - Basic Data

Social and demographic indicators Area 5.130 ka2 Arabia land (pareant of total) 1.308 km2 Agricultural land (pareant of total) 25 Population (mid-1992) 1.27 million Density (1992) Total 244 par km2 * Arabia 932 par km2 Bate of population increase (pareant par annum) 1.2 Life expectancy at birth (in years) 71 Infant mortality (par thousand) 10 Child daath rata (aga* 1-4, par thousand) 0.4 Population par physician 943 Population par hospital bad 196 Distribution of national income, hishast quintile 50 pareant lowest quintila 4 pareant Aeeass to aafa watar (pareant of diallings) Urban 100 Bora! 95 Aeeaas to alaetrieity (pareant of dwellings) Urban 92 Bnral Par capita ealoria intaka (par day) 2,853 Par capita protain intaka (gram* par day) 65 Adult litaracy rata 96 pareant Primary school anroUmant 97 pareant Secondary school enrollment 84 parent Illitaracy 4 pareant Unemployment rata (1994 estimate) 19.7 parcant

GDP at BMTtet prieas (1994) TTS28.390 Billion US$4.812 Billion I/

GDP at iTMirket prices par capita (1994) US$3.881 i/

Prel. Est. 1991 1992 1993 1294 Origin of GDP (percent) Agriculture 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 Oil/gas 26.2 23.6 22.6 25.5 Manufacturing 9.1 9.2 9.1 8.7 Construction 8.6 8.8 8.4 8.0 Covexnmant 11.1 11.8 11.1 10.1 Other 42.5 44.1 46.4 45.3

Ratios to GDP Exports of goods and nonfactor sarvicas 41.0 39.2 39.6 40.3 Imports of goods and nonfactor services 33.3 29.1 31.0 27.9 Currant account of the balance of payments -0.9 1.7 1.6 2.1 Central government revenues 29.9 26.3 27.1 26.9 Central government expenditures 30.2 29.1 26.9 27.2 Public sector overall surplus or deficit (-) 0.1 -2.1 1.1 -3.1 External public debt (end of year) 45.9 40.7 48.9 43.4 Gross national savings 15.2 14.0 14.7 15.5 Gross domestic investment 16.1 12.3 13.1 13.4 Money and quasi-money (and of year) 42.0 39.7 43.1 42.2

AlBtual _ch^p*ites in selected indicators Real GDP 2.7 -1.7 -1.7 4.0 GDP at current prices 4.7 -2.5 8.1 13.6 Domestic expenditures (at current prices) 16.0 -0.3 10.0 8.8 Gross capital formation 33.7 -21.5 15.0 20.0 Consumption 12.8 4.2 9.2 6.9

GDP deflator 2.0 4.2 9.9 9.2 Consumer prices (end of period) 2.3 8.5 13.5 5.9

Central government revenues 20.5 -9.9 11.2 13.0 Central government expenditures 15.6 -1.1 -0.2 14.8

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Frel. Est. 1991 1992 1993 1994 (percent) P4»i*»»f»4«i System 2/ Liabilities to private sector 6.6 1.0 11.5 7.8 Money end quasi-money 6.0 -3.0 17.3 6.3 Bet domestic assets of the financial system 14.0 2.7 -0.4 -2.6 Credit to public sector -1.0 3.0 -8.1 -5.3 Credit to private sector 12.8 1.6 3.3 -4.0 External Sector Merchandise exports (in U.S. dollars) -8.3 -5.7 -13.7 10.9 Merchandise imports (in U.S. dollars) 28.5 -16.5 -1.9 3.3 Texas of trade -8.6 -4.0 -6.9 2.4 Bominal effective exchange rate and of period (depreciation •) -3.9 3.9 -25.1 -5.8 3/ Baal affective exchange rate and of period (depreciation -) 1.0 9.0 -17.7 -5.2 3/

Central goverment finances tm»4 114 MM* of Trinidad __.« Y«h«»<% dollars) Revences 6,754.6 6,085.1 6,759.4 7.638.3 Expenditures 6,803.0 6,729.6 6,717.5 7.711.5 Current account surplus or deficit (-) 719.8 -196.5 400.0 442.3 Overall surplus or deficit (-) -48.4 -644.6 42.1 -73.2 External financing (net) 475.2 -235.9 -135.4 -208.3 Domestic financing (net) 523.6 888.5 93.8 281.5

Balance of Payments (mi 1l4nn« A? IT S H«11»TS) Merchandise exports 1,751.4 1,661.8 1,480.2 1,640.4 Merchandise imports -1,436.9 -1.199.5 -1.165.1 -1.204.0 Factor Im IBM (net) -438.2 -444.3 -318.5 -384.5 Other services and transfers (net) 77.7 72.9 77.1 52.6

Balance an current account -46.1 90.9 73.8 104.0

Direct investment 169.1 177.9 368.7 415.3 Public sector capital -317.7 -191.8 -42.7 -13.1 Private capital, including errors and missions -102.3 -179.3 -244.4 -356.2

Changes la reserves (increase -) 4/ 173.9 32.5 -155.4 -150.0 Debt rescheduling 123.1 69.8

£5tajrns£^cnaJ^jrejMtrve^pojiiJt£on> (•4 114Olfff of Splilfi end of Mr*«*> Central Bank (oat) -37.0 -59.0 51.8 150.5 Financial system (net) 2.6 -28.2 148.0 308.9 Gross official reserves 248.6 147.1 165.9 209.6

IMF data (as of November 30. 1994) Article VIII status Intervention currency and rate U.S. dollar at TT$5.94 • US$1.00 Quota SD£ 246.8 million Fond holdings of local currency SDR 310.0 Billion As percent of quota 125.6 percent Total Fund credit SBD €3.2 Billion CCFF purchases gpp — •4l14^wi Credit tranche purchases SDR 63.2 million Ordinary SDR 18.4 million Enlarged access SDR 44.8 million Special Drawing Bights Department Cumulative SPff allocation SDR 46.2 Billion Bat acquisition or utilisation (-) of SDRs SDR 46.1 Billion Holdings of SDBs SDR 0.1 Billion Share of profits from gold sales US$10.0 Billion

Sources: Data and information provided by the Trinidad and Tobago authorities; and Fond staff estimates.

I/ Calculated at TT$5.9 par U.S. dollar. 2/ As a percent of liabilities to the private sector at the beginning of the pariod of the financial system »»-l«wM»iB finance houses, thrift and development banks. 3/ From December 1993 to October 1994. 4/ Befers to the nat international reserves of the Monetary Authority.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution I. Introduction

The Republic of Trinidad and Tobago is comprised of two islands in the South East Caribbean, separated by a channel that is 31 kilometers vide. Trinidad--the larger island--is situated about 12 kilometers off the northeast coast of Venezuela and occupies an area that is approximately 4,820 square kilometers. The major cities, including the capital, Port-of- Spain, lie near the coastlines. The area of the island of Tobago is about 300 square kilometers, with numerous sandy beaches. The resident population of the country is about 1.27 million, with 1.20 million living in Trinidad and the remainder in Tobago. The resident population increased by about 4 percent between the census of 1985 and the most recent one in 1990. Per capita GDP is estimated at US$3,881 in 1994, significantly above that in the other Caribbean countries except Antigua and Barbuda and St. Kitts and Nevis. Trinidad and Tobago became independent in 1962 and has a parliamentary system of government; the present government came to power in 1991.

The economy is highly open, with exports and imports equivalent to about 34 percent of GDP and 23 percent of GDP, respectively. Trading is mainly with the United States, other member countries of the Caribbean Community (CARICOM), the United Kingdom, and Latin America. The economy depends largely on the production and export of crude oil, oil products and petrochemicals which together account for 25 percent of GDP and 70 percent of exports. Other exports include sugar (to the European Union) and manu- factured goods (to the CARICOM). Imports consist mainly of raw materials and intermediate and capital goods. Although both agriculture and tourism have considerable potential, together they account for less than 3 percent of GDP.

II. Retrospective

Since the discovery and development of significant oil and gas deposits in the 1950s, Trinidad and Tobago's economy has evolved into a dual character—a dominant oil/gas sector that is fairly capital intensive and a non-oil/gas sector with service industries as the main activity. Economic policy through early 1980s focused on public sector led industrialization as a catalyst for private sector development. The activities of the public sector--including large-scale investment in enterprises and the installation of an expansive domestic infrastructure--was financed mainly by revenues from the oil/gas sector. However, employment by the oil/gas sector is relatively small and reliance has been on the non-oil/gas sector to generate employment opportunities. As petroleum prices rose in the 1970s, public sector employment and investment in productive activities expanded rapidly. At the same time, government subsidies to public enterprises (both directly from the budget and indirectly through exemptions and government-arranged loans) increased to compensate for high wages and other inefficiencies in production. Foreign investment in domestic industries was promoted through generous tax holidays, extensive tariff concessions on imported inputs and

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restrictions on entry in affected industries. During this period, the trade regime became increasingly protectionist, featuring trade licensing with a growing negative list and quantitative restrictions on imports and the exchange system had fairly comprehensive controls on foreign exchange transactions. Inflation rose from about 4 percent in 1971 to an average of about 15 percent a year in 1972-81 and the real effective exchange rate for the Trinidad and Tobago dollar appreciated by 24 percent during this period. Largely because of oil/gas exports, the external current account registered significant surpluses and the level of international reserves was built up to US$3.3 billion by end-1981.

During 1982-91, Trinidad and Tobago experienced virtually uninterrupted declines in output and in the level of gross official international reserves. Real GDP fell by a cumulative 25 percent and per capita income declined by about 33 percent. Gross official international reserves fell from US$3.3 billion at the beginning of 1982 to about US$340 million at end- 1991. These declines resulted from the downturn in oil production and price--with a deterioration in the terms of trade of about 30 percent — as well as from insufficient policy responses because the authorities initially viewed the trends as temporary. Although inflation declined from an average of 15 percent a year in 1973-81 to 10 percent a year in 1982-91* mainly because of lower import prices, the real effective exchange rate for the Trinidad and Tobago dollar appreciated by more than 50 percent between end- 1981 and end-1984 before devaluations in 1985 and 1988 restored some of the loss in competitiveness. As the large external current account deficits were financed through drawdowns in international reserves as well as borrowing, external debt rose from only about 13 percent of GDP in 1981 to about 46 percent of GDP by 1991. Debt service rose from about 7 percent of exports of goods and nonfactor services in 1981 to 30 percent by 1991.

Reflecting the deterioration in the external terms of trade and the accompanying decline in income, national savings fell from 35 percent of GDP a year in 1980-81 to 15 percent of GDP in 1991 (falling as low as 8 percent of GDP in 1986). Public sector savings declined from 20 percent of GDP a year in 1980-81 to an average of 5 1/2 percent of GDP in 1982-91 owing to the sharp loss in government revenue from oil/gas taxes. At the same time, private sector savings fell gradually from about 15 percent of GDP a year to 11 percent of GDP a year in 1982-91, as attempts were made to maintain real consumption levels. The weak savings efforts in turn constrained investment which fell from 28 percent of GDP a year in 1980-81 to an average of 19 per- cent of GDP a year in 1982-91. \J During the same period, unemployment rose steadily from about 10 percent of the labor force in 1982 to about 19 percent in 1991, after peaking at 22 percent in 1987-89. The unemploy- ment trend reflected the economic downturn following the sharp fall in oil prices as well as a shift to more capital intensive industries and produc- tion, the downsizing of the public sector, and less construction of

I/ Section IV reviews savings and investment in the last decade, highlighting the main sources of savings and areas of investment.

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infrastructure. This situation was exacerbated by the 1985 legislation which provided for generous severance payments. \J

III. Recent Economic Developments

1. Developments in 1992-93

Beginning in 1992, the pace of structural adjustment was intensified with the revamping of taxation of the oil/gas sector to encourage increased exploration 2/; the liberalization of the exchange and trade systems through progressive reductions of import tariffs, the removal of exchange controls and quantitative trade restrictions, and a move to a market- determined exchange rate following a 26 percent devaluation of the currency (in foreign currency terms) in April 1993; and a further streamlining of the public sector through privatization of enterprises, improvements in the efficiency of the public utilities, and rationalization of public sector work force. In addition, the tariffs of public utilities and services were raised in 1992-93 to bring them closer to actual costs--with increases of 15 percent for electricity, 20 percent for public transport, and 35 percent for water and sewerage.

In the event, economic activity in 1992-93 was severely affected by a fall in output in the oil/gas sector, a sharp drop in the average oil export price, and persisting weakness in the nonpetroleum sector. As a result, real GDP declined further by a cumulative 3 1/2 percent in the two-year period and unemployment rose to over 20 percent (Table 1). Real domestic expenditure fell by 3 1/2 percent a year, with declines in both consumption and investment. National savings fell less sharply in relation to GDP from 15 percent in 1991 to about 14 1/2 percent in 1992-93, and the external current account shifted from a deficit of about 1 percent of GDP in 1991 to an average surplus of about 1 1/2 percent of GDP in 1992-93.

iPublic sector consumption declined by 1 1/2 percent a year in 1992-93, reflecting continued downsizing of the work force as well as cuts in the purchase of other goods and services. Private sector consumption fell by 3 percent a year in response to lower real incomes. Public investment fell from, 8 percent of GDP in 1991 to an average of 5 percent of GDP in 1992-93 partly because of ongoing privatization of public enterprises and partly because of project implementation difficulties. Private investment fell initially from 8 percent of GDP in 1991 to 7 percent of GDP in 1992, as uncertainties about the future course of economic policies caused some faltering, but picked up to 8 1/2 percent of GDP in 1993 as investment opportunities emerged in new areas. Mainly because of the adverse effect of the fall in oil prices on government revenue, public sector savings fell

\J Recent developments and policies in the labor market are examined in Section V. 2/ For more detail on the petroleum tax regime, see Appendix II of the 1993 report on recent economic developments (SM/93/249;11/3/93).

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from 7 1/2 percent of GDP in 1991 to 3 percent of GDP in 1992, but recovered to about 6 percent of GDP in 1993 as spending was curbed.

Reflecting the pass-through effects of higher indirect taxes in 1992, the increases in utility rates and the currency devaluation in 1993, the 12-month rate of inflation accelerated from about 2 percent at the beginning of 1992 to about 13 1/2 percent at end-1993. The prices of food and beverages rose by 18 percent and of household supplies by 16 percent mainly because of their import contents. Also, the reduction in subsidy for liquified petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, and gasoline led to higher energy and transportation costs;.the price index for transportation rose by 10 percent in 1993.

The consolidated public sector position shifted from an overall balance in 1991 to a deficit of 2 percent of GDP in 1992 before recording a surplus of 1 percent of GDP in 1993. The deficit in the operations of the Central Government widened to nearly 3 percent of GDP in 1992 but shifted to a small surplus of 0.2 percent of GDP in 1993 following improvement in non-oil/gas tax administration and cuts in current expenditures. I/ The operations of the nonfinancial public enterprises registered surpluses of about 1/2 per- cent of GDP in 1992 and 1 percent of GDP in 1993 mainly because investments by energy-related enterprises were postponed.

Total revenue of the Central Government declined from about 30 percent of GDP in 1991 to an average of 26 1/2 percent of GDP in 1992-93 mainly because of a 5 percentage points loss in oil tax receipts attributable to the lower corporate income taxes paid due mainly to the fall in oil prices and the restructuring of oil/gas taxation. This decline was partly offset in three main areas: by the full effect in 1992 of the value-added tax introduced in 1990; higher income tax revenues from the non-oil/gas sector because of a temporary increase in the top marginal rates for personal income taxes from 30 percent to 35 percent in 1992; and a significant improvement in the collection of excise duties following increases for petroleum products, alcoholic beverages and tobacco products. At the same time, Central Government expenditure was reduced from 30 percent of GDP in 1991 to an average of 28 percent of GDP a year in 1992-93. The bulk of the reduction was in capital expenditure and net lending, which fell from about 3 1/2 percent of GDP in 1991 to an average of about 1 1/2 percent of GDP a year in 1992-93. Current expenditure remained at about 26 1/2 percent of- GDP a year mainly because of significant increases in interest payments.

The financial operations of the public enterprises remained broadly unchanged with operating surpluses of about 2 1/2 percent of GDP a year in 1992-93. This reflected continued progress with restructuring of activities and reduction of the work force. Current and capital transfers from the

I/ Military expenditure is fully reflected in the fiscal, debt, and balance of payments data, although it is identified separately only in the fiscal data. The deficit of the Central Government excludes proceeds from the divestment of public enterprises.

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Central Government declined from 4 percent of GDP in 1991 to an average of 2 percent of GDP a year in 1992-93. Investment by public enterprises declined from 4 percent of GDP in 1991 to about 3 percent of GDP a year in 1992-93 mainly because of the postponement of energy related projects. The net domestic assets of the financial system increased by the equivalent of 3 percent of the liabilities to the private sector at the beginning of the year in 1992 and declined slightly in 1993. Slow growth in credit as the economy contracted and a significant net repayment by the Central Government in 1993 were the main factors behind this pattern. Overall bank credit expansion to the private sector slowed from about 13 percent in 1991 to about 2 1/2 percent a year in 1992-93. The tightening of credit policy, which included higher reserve requirements established at end-1991 and an increase in the Central Bank's rediscount rate in 19929 also contributed to slow down credit expansion. Growth in the financial system liabilities to the private sector decelerated from 6 1/2 percent in 1991 to 1 percent in 1992 as a result of a decline in narrow money as holdings were adjusted to reflect downturn in the economy. In 1993, liabilities to the private sector increased by 11 1/2 percent, with little change in money velocity despite the rise in inflation. The overall balance of payments recorded a deficit of US$100 million in 1992--about one-third of the deficit in the previous year--and a surplus of US$150 million in 1993. As indicated earlier, there was a marked turnaround in the external current account, with surpluses of about 1 1/2 percent of GDP a year in 1992-93, largely because of reductions in import volumes associated with the drop in investment outlays in 1992 and the devaluation in 1993. The decline in imports was especially pronounced in raw materials, and intermediate and capital goods*-as activity began to adapt to structural changes; imports of consumer goods also fell by about 16 percent in 1993 reflecting the effects of the devaluation as well as the continued economic downturn. Export receipts fell by 8 percent a year in 1992-93 mainly because of declines in both volume (3 percent a year) and unit value (6 percent a year). The declines were mainly in fuel and chemicals, as nontraditional exports increased somewhat. Net service payments increased in 1992 as a result of higher interest payments on public external debt and large repatriation of earnings, but dropped in 1993 reflecting lower international interest rates. The capital account (including errors and omissions) improved steadily from a deficit of US$250 million in 1991 to a surplus of US$80 million in 1993, owing mainly to a decline in scheduled amortization of public external debt in 1992, the placement of Eurodollar bonds in 1992-93, and the inflow of proceeds from the privatization of public enterprises which offset large foreign debt repayments and private capital outflows in 1993. The overall balance of payments outturns in 1992-93 were insufficient to cover repur- chases to the Fund of US$230 million (67 percent of quota), and gross official international reserves fell from US$340 million at end-1991 to US$220 million at end-1993--equivalent to two months of imports of goods and nonfactor services.

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Trinidad and Tobago's external public debt (Including debt to the Fund) declined from US$2,438 million (46 percent of GDP) at end-1991 to US$2,215 million (41 percent of GDP) at end-1992. It fell further to US$2,096 mil- lion in 1993 but as a proportion of GDP it rose to about 49 percent as a consequence of the devaluation in April 1993. The level of debt outstanding in terms of U.S. dollars remains sensitive to exchange rate movements among major currencies, as only about 60 percent of Trinidad and Tobago's debt in denominated in U.S. dollars.

2. Developments In 1994 In 1994, the economy started to respond favorably to the various policies and structural measures implemented in recent years. Real GDP is estimated to have grown by 4 percent mainly as a result of expansion in the oil/gas sector--reflecting higher production of natural gas, methanol and nitrogenous fertilizers. Growth in the non-oil/gas sector is estimated at about 2 percent with a recovery in commerce and agriculture. Inflation declined to less than 6 percent by end-1994 with the completion of the pass-through effects of the currency devaluation in the previous year. The price increases for most consumer goods and services decelerated, except for food, which increased by 11 percent due to domestic shortages of fresh produce at the beginning of the year. The unemployment rate fell to about 18 percent, as a result of the turnaround in economic activity. The consolidated public sector is estimated to have shown an overall deficit of about 3 percent of GDP in 1994--compared with zero balance envisaged at the beginning of the year--because investment by public enterprises in the oil/gas sector accelerated with the implementation of the projects that were postponed in the previous years. The operations of the Central Government are estimated to have been in an overall deficit of 0.3 percent of GDP in 1994. The financial position of the Central Government was weakened as a result of the fall in oil prices during the first quarter of 1994 which was more pronounced than had been envisaged at the time the budget was formulated, and by unanticipated expenditure-- mainly for transfers to the utilities and to the University of Vest Indies (to unlock approved foreign assistance). In these circumstances, there was an effort to contain current expenditure through a further reduction of the public sector work force, the application of stricter limits on the purchases of goods and services, and reductions in subsidies and transfers to other public entities. In addition, various fees and charges were raised.

Total revenue of the Central Government is estimated to have remained at about 27 percent of GDP in 1994, as one half of a percentage point fall in oil tax receipts was almost offset by an improvement in non-oil revenues. Income tax continued to show strong buoyancy and nontax receipts nearly doubled because of net profit transfers from the new lottery scheme, off- setting a shortfall in collections from import taxes and excise duties. Central government expenditures is estimated to have risen slightly to

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about 27 percent of GDP in 1994 as most cf the increase in capital expend- iture and net lending was offset by one half of a percentage point of GDP reduction in current expenditure stemming from the containment of the wage bill. Credit policy was tightened around mid-1994 in the face of the weaker fiscal position in an effort to help bring inflation down, contain private capital outflows, and ease the pressures on the exchange rate that had emerged. Bank reserve requirements were raised from 16 percent to 18 per- cent in April 1994 and to 20 percent in July. In addition, the financial system was liberalized with the removal of all selective credit and interest rate controls. I/ Interest rates firmed in the second half of the year with both lending and deposit rates rising by about 1 percentage point to 14 percent and 9 1/2 percent, respectively. Overall credit declined by about 10 percent. Credit to the private sector (in relation to liabilities to the private sector at the beginning of the year) is estimated to have dropped by 4 percent in 1994, and net credit to the public sector to have fallen by 5 percent; the financial system liabilities to the private sector are estimated to have increased by 8 percent, about in line with nominal GDP.

The balance of payments is estimated to have recorded an overall surplus of US$150 million in 1994, approximately the same as in the previous year. The external current account surplus -rose to 2 percent of GDP as a result of a strong increase in chemical and nontraditional exports and a decline in imports. The increase in chemical and nontraditional exports reflect to a large extent full capacity production of new petrochemical plants and the stimulus provided by the reforms of the trade and exchange systems. The surplus in the account capital (including errors and omis- sions) is estimated to have declined to US$46 million in 1994 as a result of large external debt repayments and sizable private capital outflows. The latter were a consequence of continued portfolio realignment by insurance companies and commercial banks, following the introduction of the floating exchange rate system and the removal of restrictions on their holding of foreign assets. After repurchases to the Fund, gross official international reserves rose to the equivalent of over 2 1/2 months of imports of goods and nonfactor services. External public debt is estimated to have declined slightly to US$2088 million in 1994 (43 percent of GDP); the currency composition remained largely unchanged.

The exchange and trade system of Trinidad and Tobago has been liberalized in several steps since 1989. 2/ The Trinidad and Tobago dollar was pegged to the U.S. dollar at the rate of TT$4.25 per U.S. dollar

I/ Section VII describes the financial liberalization in Trinidad and Tobago over the last decade and Section VIII examines the stability of the demand for currency and broad money. 2/ A detailed description of the exchange and trade system at the end of 1993 is contained in the IMF, Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions > 1994.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 8 - between August 17, 1988 and April 12, 1993. On April 13, 1993, the currency was devalued by 26 percent in foreign currency terns to TT$5.72 and was allowed to be market determined. Since then, the exchange rate has moved within a narrow range and the mid-point between buying and selling rates was TT$5.89 per U.S. dollar at end-December 1994. The real effective exchange rate at end-October 1994 was about 5 percent more depreciated than at end- 1993 and some 22 percent more depreciated than at end-1992. I/ The trade system is free of controls, except for restrictions on imports of a few items relating to health and security.

I/ Indicators of competitiveness are examined in Section X.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 9 -

Tab!* 1. Trinidad and Tobago: Selected Economic mod Financial Indicators

1993 1994 1991 1992 Prel. Est.

(Ai*T*tial percentage c**^ftffa qpi^«« otherwise specified)

National income and prices Real GDP 2.7 -1.7 -1.7 4.0 GDP deflator 2.0 4.2 9.9 9.2 Consuewr prices (end of year) 2.3 S.S 13.5 5.9 (period average) 3.8 6.5 10.8 8.3 External sector Exports, f.o.b. -8.3 -5.7 -13.7 10.9 Imports, c.i.f. 28.5 -16.5 -2.9 3.3 Export volume 1.3 -1.3 -5.3 6.7 Import volume 29.6 -16.2 -0.8 1.8 Term* of trade (deterioration -) -8.6 -4.0 -6.9 2.4 Rominal effective exchange rate; end of period (depreciation -) 3.9 3.9 -25.1 I/ -5.8 Eeal effective exchange rate; end of period (depreciation -) 1.0 9.0 -17.7 I/ -5.2 Central Goverment Revenue and grants 20.5 -9.9 11.2 13.0 Total expenditure 15.6 -1.1 -0.2 14.8 Fi^^eial svstfff* 2/ •at domestic assets 14.0 2.7 -0.4 -4.1 Of mhich: credit to public sector -1.0 3.0 -8.1 -5.3 credit to private sector 12.8 1.6 3.3 -4.0 Honey and qoasi-voney 6.0 -3.0 17.3 6.3 Liabilities to private sector (IPS) 6.6 1.0 11.5 7.8 Deposit rete (weighted) 7.1 8.3 8.8 9.5 Tending rate Prime 12.9 15.5 15.5 15.0 Weighted 11.9 12.5 12.7 14.0 Treasury bills 7.6 9.3 9.5 10.7 CIn nercent of GDP) Overall eantral gmranaiant. balanea 3/4/ -0.2 -2.8 0.2 -0.3 Overall public saetoz balance 4/ 0.1 -2.1 1.1 -3.1 Domestic financing 4.3 4.4 2.7 Foreign financing -4.2 -2.3 -1.1 0.4 Groas investment U.I 12.3 13.1 13.4 Grosa national saving* 15.2 14.0 14.7 15.5 External currant account bala&ea 4/ -0.9 1.7 1.6 2.1 Trada balance 4/ 5.9 8.5 6.8 9.0 Ket capital inflow 4/5/ -2.1 -2.3 1.8 0.9 External public dabt (end-period) 45.9 40.7 48.9 43.4 (T** pare ant of exports of Kttods fn**^ iiKTtif actor services) External public dabt service 29.5 34.4 34.8 30.4 Intaraat payments 10.€ 8.6 8.2 8.0 (In Millions of U.S. dollars)

Overall bala&ea of payment* 3/ -297.0 -102.3 155.7 150.5 Changa in nat official reserves (incraasa -) 173.9 32.5 -155.7 -150.5 Gross official, reserves, and-pariod 340.2 207.3 223.9 302.4 (in months of iaq?ortm) 6/ 2.5 1.7 1.9 2.5

Soorcaa: Data provided by taa Trinidad and Tobago authorities; and Fund staff astiaatas and projections. I/ From December 1993 to October 1994. y In relation to liabilities to the private sector at tbe beginning of the period. Tbe financial system excludes finance bouses, and thrift and developSMnt banks. I/ Before debt rescheduling. 4/ Deficit presented as negative. £/ Including errors and omissions. £/ Imports of goods and nonfactor services.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 10 -

IV. Economic Structure. Investment and Savings

Over the period 1970-94, the structure of output changed, reflecting the Government's industrialization policy as veil as the rate of exploit- ation of the crude oil reserves. The share of oil/gas in GDP declined from 22 percent in 1970 to 16 percent in 1973-81 when crude oil production was reduced. However, as oil/gas production was increased to offset decline in prices, the sector's share rose to 25 percent in 1982-89 and to about 26 percent in 1990-94. Non-oil/gas output base of the economy expanded rapidly in 1973-81 as a result of the Government's industrialization strategy to diversify output toward manufactured products with higher value added. The share of manufacturing in GDP increased from 10 percent in 1970 to about 11 percent in 1973-81 and the share of services increased from 60 percent in 1970 to 67 percent in 1973-81. However, these activities developed behind extensive protection and large government subsidies. With the fall in incomes stemming from the decline in oil and petrochemical prices in 1982-89, manufacturing, distribution and hotel and financial services experienced problems and contracted. In 1982-89 the share of manufacturing relative to GDP fell to 7 1/2 percent and that of services dropped to 65 percent. As the structural reforms were deepened, the decline in output was arrested in the subsequent years. In 1990-94 the share of manufacturing rose slightly to 8 percent of GDP but services further contracted to 62 percent.

1. Oil/gas sector

Proven oil reserves in Trinidad and Tobago are currently estimated at 490 million barrels of oil and 8.4 trillion cubic feet of natural gas, representing about ten years of current production. The largest oil and gas producers are foreign companies and state-owned enterprises. In 1994, the operation of Amoco--a foreign company--accounted for 41 percent of the oil production and for over 70 percent of the gas production. The state-owned Petrotrin and Trinmar are responsible for 28 percent of oil production; and the remaining 31 percent of oil production and 2 percent of gas production are undertaken by a number of small foreign companies. Oil and gas production declined by about 1 1/2 percent a year in 1973- 89 as existing wells matured and exploration remained low (Chart 1). At the same time, oil exports rose from US$5 million (2 percent of exports) in 1970 to an average of US$1,055 million (65 percent of exports) in 1973-81 before declining to an average of US$808 million (40 percent of exports) a year in 1982-89. Since then, receipts from oil exports have remained at about the same level as in 1982-89. To reverse the declining trend in oil and gas production, the Government introduced a new petroleum tax regime in 1992 aimed at strengthening the incentives for exploration and secondary recovery. I/ Encouraged by the new tax regime, deep drilling increased

I/ For a description of the new oil tax regime, see Appendix II of SM/93/249.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - lOa -

CHART 1 Trinidad & Tobago Developments in the Oil/Gas Sector

Sources: Central Statistical Office; and Fund staff estimates. 1/ In percent of oil/gas GDP. 2/ In UJS. dollars deflated by import prices.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution This page intentionally left blank

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 11 -

significantly, boosting both output and reserves. In 1994, oil production increased by 5 1/2 percent and gas production increased by 5 percent. In the late 1970s and early 1980s, the Government expanded the petrochemical industry with the construction of ammonia, urea and methanol plants. As a result, output of petrochemicals increased by an average of 17 percent a year in 1982-89 compared with 4 percent a year in 1973-81. However, because of the weakening of international prices and limited access to external markets, government transfers to petrochemical industries rose to an average of 0.2 percent of GDP a year in 1985-89. This situation improved significantly with the subsequent recovery of international prices for petrochemicals. As a result of the construction of the second methanol plant in 1992*93, the value-added of the petrochemical industries increased from 1 1/2 percent of GDP in 1973-89 to more than 3 percent in 1994. Export earnings from these products increased from an average of 16 percent of total exports in 1973-89 and to 26 percent by 1994. 2. Agriculture Agriculture accounts for about 12 percent of total employment with traditional outputs of sugar, rice, dairy, roots and starches. The share of the agricultural sector in real GDP has declined steadily from about 7 per- cent in 1970 to 3 percent in 1990-94. Among the major factors contributing to the relative decline of the sector are the loss of agricultural land that was diverted to other uses and increased losses in the cultivation of sugar - -the largest agricultural activity. The acreage under cultivation in the agriculture sector declined from 131,000 hectares in 1963 to 107,400 hectares in 1982 and to 83,800 hectares by 1991. The output base of agriculture is centered on sugar and rice produc- tion. Because sugar has been an important source of foreign exchange earnings and rice an important food input for domestic consumption, the two crops received government support in the form of guaranteed prices, discounted input supplies and protection from imported competing goods. In 1973-89 government transfers related to these crops were about 1 percent of GDP a year, accounting for almost 90 percent of total transfers to the agricultural sector. In recent years, the gradual withdrawal of government's price support and trade protection for these crops led some farmers to move from the production of sugar and rice to nontraditional crops such as citrus and aquaculture. Sugar production experienced increasing losses in recent years because unit production costs have increased relative to export prices. I/ For instance, in 1973-81 unit labor costs in the sector increased by an average of 22 percent a year while sugar price increased by an average of 14 percent

I/ The sugar operations are undertaken by a public enterprise--CARONI Ltd. The current quota in the U.K. market is 46,000 tons a year and the one in the U.S market is 9,000 tons a year. In 1993, the average sugar price was US$0.27 a pound in the ED market and US$0.22 a pound in the U.S. market.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 12 -

a year. In 1982-89 the unit labor costs increased by an average of 17 per- cent a year, exceeding by 15 percent the average increase in sugar prices during this period. However, the unit labor costs fell by an average of 14 percent a year in 1990-94 largely due to restructuring efforts, thereby reducing the loss in sugar operations. The Government initiated major structural adjustment efforts in the agriculture sector in 1992. I/ These efforts include restructuring the sugar sector to improve its operations, increasing acreage under cultiv- ation, identifying areas for agricultural diversification and reducing protection. At the same time, the Government's role is being limited to providing infrastructure, information on markets, technical assistance and other extension services. 3. Nonpetx**!mf P fHflT^ufacturing sector The nonpetroleum manufacturing sector accounts for about 10 percent of total employment and 8 percent of GDP. It consists of both capital- intensive heavy industries producing steel, cement and automobile assembly, and labor-intensive light industries producing food, beverages, electronic appliances, textiles and wood products (Table 4). Output grew by an average of 5 percent a year in 1973-81. As indicated earlier, this expansion was made possible by protection in the form of import restrictions, high tariff on competing imported goods and duty concessions on imported inputs. As domestic demand weakened after the fall of oil and petrochemical prices, manufacturing output contracted by an average of 3 percent a year in 1982-89 even as the Government increased subsidies to loss «aVi^g industries. Beginning in 1988, the Government shifted its development strategy towards increasing the role of the private sector and of outward-looking industries. In this context, several public enterprises have been divested- -particularly in 1992-94--including the cement and steel plants. The participation of foreign ownership in the divested enterprises has brought increased market access, new technology and improved management. The removal of duty exemptions from products for the local market, the reduction in the level of tariffs, the elimination of import restrictions and the realignment of relative prices through devaluation have all encouraged manu- facturers to move towards export-oriented activities. Export of cement as a percent of output increased from an average of less than 15 percent in 1982-89 to 55 percent in 1990-94, and exports of food products rose from less than 20 percent of total output in 1973-89 to about 40 percent in 1990-94. At the same time, the share of assembly products for the local market declined from an average of 20 percent in 1973-89 to an average of 14 percent in 1990-94.

i/ The Cabinet appointed a tripartite committee was appointed by Cabinet in April 1992 with the aims of restructuring CARONI's operations and setting up diversification strategy for the agricultural sector.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 13 -

4. Nontradable sector

The nontradable sector, mainly comprises the service activities including construction, provides about 84 percent of total employment. In 1973-81, the nontradable sector expanded at a rate of 8 percent a year due to increased domestic demand led by the rapid expansion of public sector spending. For instance, construction activity jumped from 6 percent of GDP in 1970 to 12 percent of GDP a year in 1973-81, and financial services expanded from 7 percent of GDP in 1970 to 13 percent of GDP a year in 1973-81. However, the growth of the nontradable sectors declined by 4 1/2 percent a year in 1982-89 largely as a result of the decline in the country's income and the drop in activity in the other sectors.

The nontradable sector also has experienced significant restructuring since early 1990s. Government services declined as a result of its adjust- ment to lower revenue. In contrast, following a large drop in 1982-89 to an average of 10 percent of GDP financial services sector recovered slightly in 1990-94. The financial restructuring and liberalization measures, such as removal of credit and foreign exchange controls explain in part the expansion of activity in the financial services sector.

5. Investment

Investment declined from an average of 28 percent of GDP a year in 1973-81 to 21 percent of GDP a year in 1982-89 and to 14 percent of GDP a year in 1990-94 (Table 5). This reflected to a large extent the behavior of public sector investment which declined from an average of 17 percent of GDP a year in 1973-81 to 13 percent of GDP a year in 1982-89 and to 6 percent in 1990-94.

a. Public sector investment

Public sector investment became dominant in 1973-81 as a result of the Government's acquisition of private enterprises and entry into capital- intensive heavy industries (Chart 2) made possible by oil-related windfalls to the Government. Over this period, the share of public sector investment in ?the oil/gas sector was 70 percent; in agriculture and manufacturing sector 65 percent; and in the nontradable sector, including utility and transportation, 50 percent (Table 6). With the fall in oil revenue, increased operating losses of the public enterprises and the shift in government development strategy led the public sector's share in total investment to decline to an average of 46 percent in 1990-94.

The focus of public sector investment has moved gradually away from the productive sectors. With privatization of most manufacturing activities, public investment in these activities decreased from 20 percent of total investment in 1973-89 to 3 percent in 1990-94, while its investment in utilities increased steadily from 7 percent of total investment in 1973-89 to 11 percent in 1990-94.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 14 -

b. Private investment

Private sector investment in 1973-89 was concentrated on heavily protected import substituting light industries, such as food processing, assembly, and textile activities and in the nontradable sector. With the increase in labor costs in 1973-81, these labor-intensive sectors lost competitiveness, and the private sector investment declined significantly. However, foreign investment rose from an average of 2 percent of GDP a year in 1973-89 to 4 percent a year in 1990-94, or from an average of 30 percent of total private sector investment in 1973-89 to about 60 percent in 1990- 94. Part of this increase came about from the Government's efforts to improve the environment for private investment. In addition to withdrawing from direct involvement in some activities, structural reforms and the reduction of domestic and external imbalances improved the attractiveness of Trinidad and Tobago as destination for investment.

In response to the liberalization and privatization measures, private sector investment has moved from nontradable sectors to tradable sectors and from import substituting industries to export-oriented ones. Private sector investment in nontradable sector fell from an average of 21 percent of total investment in 1973-89 to 15 percent in 1990-94, while the share of invest- ment in the tradable sectors increased from less than 20 percent in 1973-89 to about 40 percent in 1990-94. Private sector investment in the oil/gas sector increased from about 9 percent of total investment in 1973-89 to 30 percent in 1990-94 as a result of public sector divestment of the urea factory, establishment of the new methanol plant by the private sector and increased activity in oil exploration and secondary recovery. Private sector investment in the nontraditional export-oriented sectors also increased steadily from less than 9 percent of total investment in 1973-81 to 11 percent by 1990-94. The trade liberalization efforts and the removal of restrictions on the location of the free zones--a policy that aims at insulating manufacturing for export from protracted administrative proce- dures while granting tax holidays for imported inputs--encouraged both local and foreign investment in export-oriented sectors.

6. National savings and financing of investment activities

National savings has been affected to a large extent by changes in the terms of trade (Chart 3 and see Table 5). The increase in international oil prices caused national savings to rise from 12 percent of GDP in 1970 to an average of 33 percent of GDP in 1973-81. Being the major recipient of oil windfall gains, the public sector was able to generate large savings that averaged 22 percent of GDP a year. Private sector savings also increased from 7 percent of GDP in 1970 to an average of 11 percent of GDP a year in 1973-81. About 70 percent of the private sector savings was from the oil/gas sector. However, following the deterioration of international oil prices and the attendant drop in disposable income, national savings fell to an average of 14 1/2 percent of GDP a year in 1982-89, reflecting declines in public sector savings to 4 percentage of GDP a year and in private sector savings to 10 1/2 percent of GDP a year.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution CHART 2 Trinidad and Tobago Distribution of Public Sector Investment 1/ - I4 a

Source: Ministry of Finance 1/ For the period 1973-81. 21 Includes health, education and hotel. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution CHART 3 Trinidad & Tobago Domestic Savings (In percent of GDP) - 14 b *

Sourer. Control Stotlsfleol OHIct

(/ Domestic savings minus net factor Ineom* and transfers from abroad.

2/ Percentage change. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 15 -

During 1973-81 more than 20 percent of public sector savings was invested in the oil/gas sector and about 50 percent was used to purchase equity in private businesses. Fart of private savings in the petroleum sector was reinvested in the oil/gas sector and the remainder was repatri- ated. However, the sharp reduction in public sector savings in 1982-89 led to a rapid increase in public sector external borrowing from about 1 percent of GDP a year in 1973-81 to 6 percent of GDP a year in 1982-89; while domes- tic borrowing shifted from net repayment of 6 percent of GDP a year in 1973-81 to net borrowing of 3 percent of GDP in 1982-89. As public invest- ment remained at the relatively high level of 1973-81, total borrowing financed 70 percent of public sector investment in the period 1982-89, compared to net savings in the earlier period. National savings strengthened by 2 percentage points to an average of 16 percent of GDP in 1990-94. Public sector savings increased to an average of 5 1/2 percent of GDP a year owing to the authorities' efforts to contain public sector consumption. Savings of the private non-oil/gas sector rose in part as a result of lower subsidies and higher indirect taxes, which discouraged consumption. In contrast, savings in the oil/gas sector remained weak due to low international oil prices. 7. l/^bor productivity Productivity, in the non-oil/gas sector increased by 5 percent a year in 1973-81 mainly as a result of rapid industrialization and output expan- sion (Chart 4). Labor productivity dropped sharply by 4 percent a year in 1982-89 as output contracted and the Government attempted to maintain employment through special works program in the non-oil/gas sector. I/ However, over the same period, productivity in the manufacturing sector rose by 10 percent owing to increased investment in the more capital intensive petrochemical industry. In 1990-94, productivity in the non-oil/gas sector increased by an average of 3 percent a year largely because of reduction in labor in both public and private sectors. At the same time, the increase in average weekly earnings dropped from an average of 9 percent a year in 1982-89 to less than 2 percent in 1990-94.

I/ In early 1980s, a special works program spent an estimated TT110 million in employing 50,000 people. (See Richard Auty and Alan Gelb, "Oil Windfalls in a Small Parliamentary Democracy: Their Impact on Trinidad and Tobago*, World Development, Vol. 14, No. 9, pp. 1161-1175, 1986.)

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 16 -

Tabla 2. Trinidad aid Tobago: Sectoral Contribution to Baal Growth of Gross Doaastic Product

tin parcant)

Avarag* Avaraga Pral. Eat. 1970 1973-81 1982-89 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Oil/gas sactor -3.4 -1.3 -1.8 1.7 0.7 -4.0 -6.9 10.5

BoD-oil/gas sactor 8.4 8.0 -4.5 0.4 3.5 -0.7 0.2 1.9 Agriculture 5.0 -0.4 1.0 18.2 2.7 -2.7 -3.3 11.6 Manufacturing 11.1 4.9 -2.7 1.6 4.8 -0.2 -4.1 1.5 Bontradabla 8.2 8.0 -4.5 0.6 3.3 -0.8 0.9 1.5 Construetion 12.1 14.4 -11.7 0.1 11.1 0.9 -6.5 3.4 Distribution and hotal 5.3 6.8 -6.1 -10.2 4.1 -1.3 8.3 0.2 6.2 5.2 -0.7 4.6 -1.9 -2.9 -1.1 Financial sarricas -1.5 15.8 -8.2 -0.3 7.7 4.9 2.5 1.—6 Othar 2.0 7.6 0.8 0.2 2.9 -1.5 1.4 2.5 Total GDP 2*i LJ. -3.6 1.5 2.7 -1.7 -1.7 4.0

Sources: Cantxal Statistic*! OfCic*; and Fad Staff Mtiaatas.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution CHART 4 Trinidad & Tobago Productivity & Wage Costs (percentage changes) - 16 a

Source: Ctntrol Statistical Office I/ In non-oll/gos stetor. 2/ Output ptr man hour In manufacturing sector (Including petrochemicals). 3/ Output/employment. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution This page intentionally left blank

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 17 -

T*l. 3. Trinidad and Tobago: Batio. of Croa. D~*ic Prodact * Sector of Origi*

(In percent of GDP at 1985 pricen)

Avaraga Avarags Pral. Est. 1970 1973-81 1982-89 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Oil/gas aactor 22.3 16.1 24.7 27.1 26. 26.0 24.6 26.1 Crada oil 14. 11.4 18.0 20.8 19. 19.0 17.6 17.8 BtfinlTig 3. 1.6 2.5 0.4 0. 1.2 1.2 1.2 Sarvica and awrfcating 4. 3.0 2.8 3.3 3. 3.2 3.3 3.7 Pstrochaadcals 1. 1.2 1.4 2.5 2. 2.6 2.5 3.4 Bon-oil/gas aactor 79. 90.3 79.6 75.1 75. 76.5 78.0 76.4 Agrieoltaza 6. 5.6 2.4 3.4 3. 3.4 3.3 3.6 Export 0. 0.4 0.2 0.2 0. 0.1 0.2 0.2 Domwatie 2. 1.9 1.5 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 Sugar 3.7 3.2 0.7 1.1 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.4 Manufacturing 10.3 11.1 7.7 8.0 8.1 8.2 8.0 7.8 Conatruction 5.9 12.2 11.0 7.7 8.4 8.6 8.2 8.1 Dimtribxxtion and botal 17.2 17.0 12.8 9.9 10.0 10.0 11.1 10.7 Goverment 8.4 8.5 15.3 17.3 16.5 16.3 16.4 15.8 Financial aarvieaa 7.4 12.8 10.0 8.9 9.4 10.0 10.4 10.2 Otaar 23.1 22.5 20.0 19.5 19.6 19.6 20.2 19.9 Lass: Inputad aarvica ebarga -2.0 -6.4 -4.3 -2.2 -2.3 -2.5 -2.6 -2.5

SB* ioo.oiaaji aoo^a2ai»i22*oi2a4£iaa*£isa4£

Soorc-: CmXtml St«ti.tlc*L Ottie.; «d Fad Strft -tl«.tM

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 18 -

Tabla 4. Trinidad and Tobago: Manufacturing Production by Activity, at 1985 Fricaa

Avaraga Avaraga Pral. Eat. 1970 1973-81 1982-89 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

CTt* iparpapt o£ total HunM^^ctrn^*^**!^ valiia-addad)

|4^»^i»>e»nrf^P yaioa addad 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Pood and bavaragas 31.0 29.2 35.2 37.8 36.1 39.6 39.5 32.6 A»«a«bly 20.4 23.7 18.6 16.2 14.5 15.5. 13.0 12.3 Taztila 7.2 8.0 4.7 3.4 3.2 2.7 1.4 1.0 PatxoehaMeala 15.9 9.0 16.5 22.5 24.5 19.8 22.3 34.5 Qiatticala 11.3 12.5 12.6 8.5 9.7 10.5 10.1 8.8 Papar product* 6.5 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.1 6.9 7.9 5.6 Wood prodncta 3.9 4.0 2.8 2.1 2.2 1.8 1.6 1.3 Othar 3.8 4.3 2.6 4.3 3.2 3.3 4.2 3.8 {Exports at pareant of output)

Crnda oil 15.2 61.6 51.2 50.9 50.7 46.5 48.2 48.0 Food and bavaragas • • • • 19.7 16.4 38.5 35.0 32.5 44.1 41.0 Coment 13.2 53.7 52.4 52.3 56.4 59.0 Staal — — 32.7 44.8 37.8 35.5 36.9 35.7 — — Memorandom item Baal growth of manufacturing output 11.1 4.9 -2.7 1.6 4.8 -0.2 -4.1 1.5

Sources: Ca&tral Statistical Office; and Fund ataff aatiamtaa.

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1*1* 5. Trtold«i «nd Tob^o: S«vi»S» «d I»nr~t»»t 'T- IT—* B* mp •*••1W prie*^)

Avaraga Avarag e Fral. Eat. 1970 1973-81 1982-89 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Gross domestic investment 25.9 28.0 jgl.2 12.6 16.1 12.3 13.1 13.* Frivata aaetor 12.3 10.8 8.2 7.8 8.3 6.9 8.4 5.2 Oil/Gas 8.5 2.7 1.9 2.2 4.4 4.7 5.2 3.0 •on-Oil/Gas 3.8 8.1 6.3 5.6 3.9 2.2 3.2 2.2 Public aactor 13.6 17.2 13.0 4.8 7.7 5.4 4.7 8.3 CPOCK nAtional •«vinK* 18.8 33.1 li*5 2£L2 IS^l li*£ li*2 1L£ Private aaetor 6.8 n.o 10.5 15.3 7.4 10.7 8.9 10.3 Oil/Gas 4.9 8.0 6.7 6.9 3.3 3.7 3.8 4.5 Hoo-Oil/Ga* 1.9 3.0 3.8 8.4 4.1 7.0 5.1 5.8 Public aactor I/ 12.0 22.0 4.0 4.9 7.8 3.3 5.8 5.2

Public aactor borrowing raqoiraaant 3/ 7.1 -S.O 6.7 -7.6 0.9 -1.7 -1.6 •2.1 Public aactor borrowing raqoiraaant 3/ 1.6 -4.8 9.0 -0.1 -0.1 2.1 -1.1 3.1 Eztarnal 0.6 1.3 5.7 -7.8 -5.5 -3.1 -1.6 0.7 Denaatic 1.0 -6.1 3.3 7.7 5.4 5.2 0.5 2.4 Privata. aaetor nat borrowins 5.5 -0.2 -2.3 -7.5 1.0 -3.8 -0.5 -5.2 Oil/gM 3.6 -4.1 -4.8 -4.7 1.1 1.0 1.4 -1.5 Bon-oil/su 1.9 3.9 2.5 -2.8 -0.2 -4.8 -1.9 -3.7

Memorandom item Ranittancaa abroad 6.0 3.9 2.0 2.7 2.3 2.3 1.9 2.1

Sources: Cantral Statistical Offiea; and Fond ataff aatiaataa. I/ Xnclndaa tranafara Iron tha othar aactoza of tba •cono*y. 2/ Equivalant to invaraa of tha currant account of taa balanea of payaanta. 3/ Equivalant to public aactor cvarall balanea.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 20 -

Tab!* 6. Trinidad and Tobago: Invaatawnt by Sector end Activity

fin psrcant of tofc*i iTnrastpant)

Avaraga Avaraga Pr*l. Est. 1970 1973-81 1982-89 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Public sector S£*£ £l*i £0*5 38^2 48*2 *i*° 12*2 £!*£ Oil/ga* 14.8 18.6 16.7 14.0 18.1 23.8 21.6 32.2 Agriculture & Manufacturing 15.2 21.3 17.2 5.2 3.2 3.5 1.7 0.5 Utilities 10.8 S.2 8.7 9.6 12.5 7.4 4.8 16.7 Other 11.8 16.3 17.8 9.5 14.3 9.3 7.7 12.1

Privata aact*or i2*i 38,6 39^5 £L8 51*1 56^ ii*3 38,1 Oil/gas 22.2 9.6 9.0 17.5 27.4 38.2 39.7 22.4 BoB-oil/gaa tradabla 15.1 7.8 8.3 14.6 12.5 8.8 7.3 5.8 Hontxadabla 10.1 21.2 22.3 29.8 11.9 9.1 17.3 10.4

Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Oil/sas 36.9 28.2 25.7 31.4 45.5 62.0 61.3 54.5 Hon-oil/gaj tradabla 30.3 29.0 25.5 19.8 15.8 12.3 9.0 6.3 ffontradabl* 32.8 42.8 48.8 48.8 38.7 25.7 29.7 39.2

Sour CM: Cantral Statistical Offica; and Fund Staff aatimatas.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 21 -

V. Recent: Developments and Policies In the Labor Market

1. Irfrbor force and wiemplovment

Household surveys indicate that the labor force represented about 40 percent of the population in 1993 (Table 7). I/ The employed consti- tuted over 80 percent of the labor force. During 1981-93 the labor force grew by 17 percent, and the number of employed grew by less than 5 percent. The number of females in the labor force rose from 31 1/2 percent in 1981 to 37 percent in 1993.

Reflecting changes in the structure of the economy during 1981-93, the share of the employment in the services sector increased by more than 10 1/2 percentage points to some 62 percent in 1993. The share of those employed in the distribution and hotel services rose from 14 percent in 1981 to 17 percent in 1993, and those employed in the finance, insurance, and real estate sectors increased from 2 1/2 percent in 1981 to about 7 1/2 per- cent in 1993. In other services (professional services, domestic services and the self-employed), the share of the employment rose by 3 percentage points over this period to 20 percent in 1993. In contrast, the share of employment in the construction sector fell from 18 percent in 1981 to less than 11 percent in 1993, whereas the combined share of the employed in the agriculture, manufacturing, and petroleum sectors declined by more than 3 percentage points to 25 percent in 1993.

Unemployment rose markedly from 10 percent of the labor force in 1981 to almost 20 percent in 1993, reaching a peak of 22 percent in 1989. Simi- larly, the unemployment rate of those actively seeking employment rose from 6 percent in 1981 to nearly 14 percent in 1993; accordingly, those not actively searching for employment represented 30 percent of the total unem- ployed in 1993 (Table 8). Unemployment affected to a greater extent females, individuals in the younger age groups, and persons in mainly unskilled occupations. In 1993, about 23 percent of the females in the labor force were unemployed, and only 17 1/2 percent of the males were unemployed. However, because males made up a larger proportion of the labor force, they accounted for somewhat more than 55 percent of all the unemployed.

Persons in the age groups from 15 to 34 years accounted for 70 percent of the unemployed in 1993; when the age group 34-39 years is added, this ratio increases to some 80 percent. In contrast, persons in the age group 40-49 years represented about 12 percent of the unemployed, those in the age group 50-59 years accounted for some 5 1/2 percent of the unemployed, and few persons of 60 years or older were unemployed. Within the age groups of 15 to 39 years, unemployment did not differ much across gender lines in 1993. Males between the ages of 15 and 39 years represented about

I/ The labor force includes all persons of 15 years or older and who classify themselves as being in the labor force. The household surveys are conducted on a quarterly basis by the Central Statistical Office.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 22 -

80 percent of the unemployed males while females in the same age group accounted for some 82 percent of the unemployed females. The unemployed held diverse but mainly unskilled occupations before losing their jobs. In 1993, over 45 percent of the unemployed held previously positions that were classified as elementary occupations9 some 17 percent had crafts or related jobs, and close to 14 1/2 percent held service positions (Table 9). Prior to losing their jobs, about 10 percent of the unemployed had been clerks, somewhat more than 5 percent were plant and machine operators, and nearly 4 percent had been technicians. Among the unemployed, few were professionals, senior public officials or managers. When classified by age groups, the occupational groups of the unemployed reflected the same pattern as for the combined age groups. Unemployment in Trinidad and Tobago was highly concentrated in certain regions in 1993. Four regions (out of the total of 11 regions in the house- hold surveys) accounted for close to 80 percent of the unemployment. Nearly 40 percent of the unemployed lived in St. George (which covers two counties) that includes the largest urban areas outside the capital city and San Fernando (Table 10). About 16 percent of the unemployed lived in Victoria County, some 15 percent in Caroni County, and close to 10 1/2 percent in St. Patrick County. The unemployed in Port of Spain accounted for less than 5 percent of all the unemployed. 2. Some explanations for the unemployment The changes in economic activity and the variations in the size of the labor force represent the main reasons for the changes in unemployment in Trinidad and Tobago. However, other factors also help explain the changes in unemployment, particularly the changes in the structure of the economy-- including a mismatch of skills and rigidities in the labor market. As economic activity boomed following the sharp increase in interna- tional oil prices, the unemployment rate declined from a steady level of 15 percent in the mid 1970s to a low of 10 percent by the early 1980s. I/ As output began to decline in the mid 1980s, unemployment climbed steadily to 22 percent by 1989, but dropped to 18 1/2 percent in 1991 as a result of a temporary recovery in economic activity. However, unemployment rose again to almost 20 percent as real GDP contracted by almost 3 1/2 percent in 1992-93. The changes in the labor force participation, in part associated with output developments, have contributed to the variations in the unemployment. Labor force participation increased during 1981-93 without a commensurate increase in employment opportunities, prompting changes in the year-to-year unemployment. The decline in the labor force participation led to a drop in

I/ See Hilaire (1992) and Auty and Gelb (1986) for a description of the changes in the unemployment rate following the sharp increase in international oil prices in the early 1980s.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 23 -

the unemployment rate by 2 percentage points to 20 percent in 1990 and the greater participation of females in the labor force led to an increase in the unemployment rate in 1992. Temporary unemployment, owing to the time spent in-between jobs and the increased reliance on part-time employment, is an important factor in explaining some of the unemployment developments. I/ Temporary unemploy- ment arises as employers and employees do not commit to a long-term working relationship as a result of institutional barriers, uncertainties about the course of economic events, and structural changes that no longer require full-time employment. In recent years, the structural changes in Trinidad and Tobago also have reflected the liberalization of the trade regime and the greater ease in importing state-of-the-art technology that would seem to have shifted production towards technologies that are more capital inten- sive. In 1993, the duration of unemployment was up to three months for about 30 percent of the unemployed, and up to six months for about 45 per- cent of the unemployed (Table 11). This short duration indicates some flexibility in the labor market owing to the transferability of skills that allows some of the unemployed to alternate easily between periods of employment and unemployment. The increased reliance on part-time employees to perform certain tasks could be the result of the legislation relating to dismissals and severance payments. The legislation states that there may be consultation between employees and employers prior to the issuance of formal dismissal notices and specifies a minimum period for these notices to become effective. If disagreement ensues at any point in time, and no acceptable solution is found, the Minister of Labor could intervene at his own volition or if requested by one of the parties. The legislation specifies that wages must still be paid to employees during the period of consultation and the inter- vention by the Minister of Labor. Moreover, if separation indeed takes place, the legislation requires mini mm severance payments amounting to two weeks for each completed year of service for employees with unbroken service of one but less than five years, and three weeks for each completed year of service for employees with unbroken service of five years or more. The legislation states that the Minister of Labor may determine other relief payments. According to the household surveys, about 33 percent of the unemployed remained without a job for more than six months, and over 25 percent went without working for one year or longer in 1993. This long duration in unemployment could be explained by unemployment resulting from job search (search unemployment), which comes about from the decision to remain (or even become) unemployed in the hope of finding a job at a wage that at least

I/ Gregory (1994) describes the increasing reliance on part-time employees in Trinidad and Tobago.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 24 - compensates for the expenses incurred in the search period. I/ However, search unemployment would require the existence of a support system. In Trinidad and Tobago, this support would appear to come mainly from the extended family and, to a lesser extent, from activities in the informal sector. The long duration of unemployment also could reflect structural factors, including a mismatch of skills and rigidities in the labor market. As the structure of the economy has been changing, some of the unemployment could be explained by a mismatch between the skills possessed by potential employees and those required for employment. The mismatch of skills could indicate the existence of a group of hard core unemployed, particularly in the case of those who have been jobless for over one year or have stopped searching for employment, and thus could explain in part the persistence of unemployment. £/ In addition, the long duration of most unemployment in Trinidad and Tobago could point to the existence of rigidities in the labor market such as the minimum wages and trade unions as well as to the dismissal diffi- culties mentioned above. I/ However, there are indications that their importance is limited as suggested by the large number of persons working below the minimum wages and the likely diminished role of the trade unions in the context of higji unemployment.

3. Alleviation policies

The Government has established short- and long-term policies to alleviate the adverse effects of unemployment. 4/ In the short term, the Government is relying mainly on the Unemployment Relief Program (URP), the Youth Training and Employment Partnership (YTEPP), the National Apprenticeship Program and the Civilian Conservation Corps, and more recently also on the program called Retraining for Displaced Workers. The TJRP is the main unemployment program. It aims to place the 25-45 years old unemployed to work in the building or refurbishing of infrastructure and construction projects (roads, bridges, community centers,

i/ Search unemployment also can explain unemployment of short duration. Because temporary unemployment requires at least some search process, search unemployment and temporary unemployment might be undistinguishable in the short term, unless specifically differentiated in household surveys. See Summers (1990). 2J For instance, in the United States the longer persons remain unemployed the more difficult it becomes for them to be re-employed. As a result, these persons are more likely to join the ranks of the hard core unemployed. See Summers (1990). I/ As explained by Lindbeck, et al. (1988), labor market rigidities explain in part the high unemployment in some industrial countries. 4/ See Section VI for details on the various social safety net programs in Trinidad and Tobago.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 25 -

schools, police stations and sports complexes), community self-help pro- jects, and one-off projects (for example, flood controls). The program works on a rotational basis, and thus only 7 percent of the unemployed hold URP sponsored jobs at any one time. In light of the high unemployment and given that the URP finances 150,000 jobs a year with an average duration of five weeks, the demand has far outstripped the supply of jobs provided under this program. In 1993, the Government spent TT$124 million on the URP, or about 1/2 percent of GDP and 23 percent of all expenditures on the social programs. The YTEPP program was initiated in 1993, with December 1995 set as the ending date. The program, which is being financed in part by the World Bank, provides the unemployed youth (15-25 years old) with career enhance- ment abilities, vocational skills training (in some 14 areas) and post- training support. In 1993, some 5,100 youths completed the program and TT$25.6 million were allocated to the YTEPP program in 1993. The National Apprenticeship Program, which is administered by the Ministry of Education under the direction of the National Training Board, targets youths (15-25 years old) who are looking for their first jobs and are already out of school. Priority is given to YTEPP participants. The program's objective is to place participants in apprenticeship programs preferably in the private sector. The period of placement varies from six months to three years depending on the qualifications of the participants. One half of the wages paid to the participants is covered by the Central Government and the other half is paid by employers. The wages are based on the minimum wages, but may be higher in some cases. In 1993, some 5,700 participants in the program were placed with support from the Government being TT$8.5 million. The Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC), which is administered by the Defence Force, started in 1993. This program places persons 15-25 years old--with little education and skills--on conservation projects, including reforestation, establishment of nature trails, beautification of beaches, and restoration of historical sites. The experience provides these persons with practical training as well as motivational skills. In 1993, some 2,600 persons participated in this program in three cycles each lasting four months. The Retraining for Displaced Workers program, which is administered by the Ministry of Education, aims to cushion the impact of structural adjust- ment measures by enabling workers (25-45 years old) to re-enter the ranks of the employed as employees or self-employed. To participate in the program, the workers need to have been dismissed, retired on grounds of ill-health, or accepted voluntary separation. The program is based on on-the-job training for up to three months. Some 1,700 displaced workers are partici- pating in the program, but the Government intends to expand it to provide training for up to 6,000 persons a year. Some 56 areas for on-the-job training have been identified by the Hinistry of Education.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 26 -

As part of the long-term policies, the Government is strengthening the flow of information between potential employees and employers, and has introduced further fiscal incentives for the creation of employment oppor- tunities. The Government is expanding the National Employment Service through the opening of four new offices. This program relies on voluntary registration of the unemployed and efforts by Ministry of Labor to find appropriate placements. The Government is proceeding with the establishment of the National Human Resource Management Information System (NHRMIS) that would provide entrants into the labor force with needed information on employment opportunities in different economic sectors and occupational categories. Moreover, this program would allow public and private insti- tutions to be aware of the human resources available, to seek potential employees who possess the skills necessary to fill vacancies, and to help in shaping the training needed to enhance the skills of potential entrants into the labor force. The fiscal incentives being provided by the Government to encourage the creation of employment opportunities include exempting commercial banks from paying corporate income tax on up to 50 percent of the interest earned on loans to small businesses and agricultural enterprises that lead to the creation of employment opportunities. Moreover, local investment in the tourism sector is being encouraged by allowing investors to claim 25 percent of their equity investment as a tax deductible expense. Given the potential of creating more employment opportunities in.the construction sector, the Government has exempted from personal and corporate income taxes all rental incomes from properties constructed after January 1, 1993. In this regard, the Government has introduced procedures to speed up the implementation of major public and private sector construction projects.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 27 -

References

Auty, Richard, and Alan Gelb, "Oil Windfalls in a Small Parliamentary Democracy: Their Impact on Trinidad and Tobago," World Development. Vol. 14, No. 9 (London), 1986.

Central Statistical Office, "Labor Force Report 1991," Continuous Sample Survey of Population - Publication No. 75 (Port of Spain: Office of the Prime Minister, 1991).

Gregory, Peter, "Labor Market Issues in Trinidad and Tobago," mimeo, The World Bank, November 1994.

Hilaire, Alvin, "The Effects of Trinidad and Tobago's Oil Boom on Relative Prices, Wages and Labor Flows," Social and Economic Studies. Vol. 41, No. 2 (Kingston), June 1992.

Lindbeck, Assar, and Dennis J. Snover. The Insider •'Outsider Theory of Fmpinyment and Unemployment (Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press, 1988).

Summers, Lawrence H. Understanding Unemployment (Cambridge, Massachusetts: The MIT Press, 1990).

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 28 -

Table 7. Trinidad and Tobago: Labor Force and Employment

1981 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

( In thon sanor force 431 469 468 492 505 505 Male 295 312 308 315 318 318 Female 136 157 159 177 187 187 FTP! °yed 387 366 124 401 406 405 Kale 269 247 253 265 264 262 Female 118 119 121 136 142 143

Dnenroloved £5. 103 2& 11 99 100 Seeking work 26 70 63 65 69 70 Other unemployed 19 34 30 27 31 30 (A* nercent of total labor forced Male 68.4 66.4 65.9 64.0 62.9 63.0 Female 31.6 33.6 34.1 36.0 37.1 37.0 F""p] *yed 89.6 78.0 80.0 £L£ 80.4 80.2 Male 62.3 52.6 54.2 53.9 52.2 51.9 Female 27.3 25.3 25.8 27.5 28.2 28.3

Unenroloved 10.4 22.0 20.0 1L£ 1&J> 19.8 Seeking work 6.0 14.9 13.5 13.1 13.6 13.8 Other unemployed 4.4 7.2 6.5 5.4 6.0 6.0 ( Percentale share }

Total emolovment 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Petroleum industries 4.4 4.9 4.7 4.6 3.9 3.8 Nonpetroleum industries 95.6 95.1 95.3 95.4 96.1 96.2 Agriculture 12.0 13.9 12.4 11.7 11.5 11.3 Manufacturing 11.7 9.6 9.4 10.4 10.4 10.0 Electricity and water 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.2 1.9 2.0 Construction 18.0 10.5 10.7 11.4 10.8 10.8 Distribution and hotels 14.2 16.8 16.8 16.8 17.1 17.0 Transport and communications 7.0 7.5 7.5 7.0 7.2 7.4 Finance, insurance, and real estate 2.5 6.3 6.4 6.9 7.1 7.7 Government 11.3 9.9 10.6 10.0 10.0 10.0 Other services 16.8 18.6 19.3 19.0 20.1 20.0

Source: Central Statistical Office.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Table 8. Trinidad and Tobago: Unemployed Persons Who Did Not Look for Work During the Survey Week by Reasons

Reasons for Not Seekine Work Awaiting Knew Temporary Result of of no Year Total Illness Application Vacancy Discouraged Other

1991 26,700 700 5,900 18,300 1,200 600

1992 30,500 600 5,200 23,300 500 900 - 2 9 1993 30,300 700 5,200 22,300 1,300 800

Source: Central Statistical Office.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution TtbU 9. Trinidad tnd Tobago: Total Unanployad by Aga Group and Oooupational Group

Yaar Total 15 to 19 20 to 24 25 to 29 30 to 34 33 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 +

Total all oooupationa 1991 91,100 16,300 22,300 18,200 11,400 7,700 9,700 4.300 1,200 1992 99,100 15,400 23,300 19,300 13,800 10,200 11,300 4,700 1.100 1993 99,900 15,400 21,300 17,200 16,200 10,600 12,400 5,400 1,400 Lagialatora, atnior 1991 400 100 100 100 .- .. .„ 100 offioiala and 1992 SOO — 100 100 100 100 100 .- nanagara 1993 900 10—0 10—0 100 200 100 200 100 — Profaaaionali 1991 700 .. 100 200 100 .. 200 mmf 100 1992 500 200 200 100 .. -- 1993 400 — 200 100 — — 100 — — — — — Taehnieiana and 1991 3,200 600 1,100 600 400 200 200 .. 100 aaaooiatad 1992 2,900 300 800 700 300 200 400 100 100 profaaaionala 1993 3,900 700 1,100 700 400 400 400 200 — Clarka 1991 10,300 1,900 3,400 1,800 ,600 700 600 200 100 1992 11,300 2,200 3,700 2,000 ,700 900 300 200 100 1993 10,700 2,100 3,700 1,800 ,100 800 900 300 - 3 0 —__ Sarviea workara (including 1991 14,500 4,600 4,600 2,600 ,000 800 500 400 dtfanoa foroaa) and 1992 14,200 3,300 4,100 2,800 ,400 1,100 1,000 300 •hop aalaa workara 1993 14,400 4,000 4,000 2,300 ,500 1,000 1,300 200 10—0 -. Agricultural, 1991 400 -- 100 100 200 for ••try and 1992 400 100 10—0 200 — — •iV fiahary workara 1993 400 •• 100 100 10—0 — •—• •- -- 10—0 Crafta and ralatad 1991 15,200 2,000 3,100 3,400 2,200 1,200 2,200 900 200 workara 1992 15,700 1,600 3,000 3,300 2,500 1,600 2,300 1,000 400 1993 17,200 2,400 2,700 2.400 3,100 2.100 2,900 1,300 300 Plant and aiaohina 1991 4,300 500 900 600 700 400 800 200 200 oparatora and 1992 4, €00 400 600 700 600 700 ,000 400 200 aaaaoblara 1993 5,100 400 700 700 800 700 ,000 700 100 Elaoantary 1991 41,500 6,500 8,900 8,600 3,100 4,400 ,200 2,600 200 oeoupationa 1992 40,700 7,200 10,800 9,100 7,200 3,500 ,000 2,600 300 1993 46,500 5,700 8,700 8,900 8,800 5,400 ,700 2,700 600 .. -. .. Not atatad 1991 600 200 100 200 100 -- 1992 300 100 200 1993 400 •—• 100 20—0 10—0 —-- — — — — — Bouroc C«ntr«l 8tati«bie«l Offie*.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Tabla 10. Trinidad and Tobago: Total Unamployad by Aga Group and Adnlniatrativa Araa

Ajta Orouv Yaar Total 13 to 19 20 to 24 23 to 29 30 to 34 35 to 39 40 to 49 50 to 59 60 +

Total 1991 91,100 16,300 22,300 18,200 11,400 7,700 9,700 4,300 1,200 1992 99,100 15,400 23,300 19,300 13,600 10,200 11,300 4,700 1,100 1993 99,900 15,400 21,300 17,200 16,200 10,600 12,400 5,400 1,400 CltUa Pott of Spain 1991 4,000 600 800 800 400 400 600 200 200 1992 5,100 600 1,000 1,300 900 300 800 200 1993 4,000 800 1,000 600 700 800 600 200 10—0 San Parnando 1991 1,600 300 300 300 200 300 100 100 1992 2,000 300 300 400 300 200 300 — 1993 2,200 200 300 500 400 200 400 20—0 — porouitha — Arima Borough 1991 MOO 100 400 400 300 100 200 100 1992 1,500 200 300 400 400 200 — 1,900 300 200 400 300 200 300 200 1993 — — —-- Point Fortin 1991 1,900 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 1992 2,500 300 600 500 200 600 300 — 1993 2,500 300 400 600 300 400 500 — — gountiaa — — 1991 35,900 6,200 8,100 7,600 ,700 2,900 4,300 1 800 300

St. Oaorga - 3 1 1992 36,600 5,600 8,300 6,800 ,400 3,700 4,200 2,200 400 1993 31,100 5,600 8,300 6,000 ,200 4,000 5,3002,4001,000 Caroni 1991 12,300 2,100 2,800 2,500 ,600 1,000 1,400700200 1992 13,900 2,100 3,400 2,600 ,800 1,600 1,600600200 1993 14,600 2,800 2,800 2,200 2,600 1.700 1,700800—

Hariva/Mayaro 1991 2,000 400 700 300 300 200 100 1992 3,100 600 800 700 300 100 300200100 1993 2,000 200 400 700 300 100 100100100

St. Andraw/ 1991 4,700 1,100 1,400 700 500 400 400 200 -- ' St. David 1992 5,900 1,100 1,700 800 900 700 400 300 1993 4,000 600 1,200 600 700 300 500 100 —••

Victoria 1991 13,500 2,600 3,600 2,600 1,600 1,100 1,100 600 300 1992 13,800 2,400 3,600 2,600 1,600 1,100 1,700 400 400 1993 15,600 2,500 3,400 2,800 2,600 1,600 2,000 600 100

St. Patrick 1991 9,700 2,000 2,600 1,700 1,000 600 1.10.0 400 100 1992 10,800 1,500 2,200 2,300 1,600 1,500 1,100 600 1993 10,600 1,400 2,500 2,400 1,700 1,100 700 700 10—0

Tobano 1991 3,800 500 1,100 1,000 500 300 200 200 1992 3,700 700 900 900 400 300 400 100 — 1993 2,600 600 700 400 400 200 300 •• "• .. Othar 1991 100 100 1992 200 :: :: 100 — 100 :: -• •• 100 1993 300 100 100 ------Souro.: C.ntr.l St.U.tlo.l Offlc.. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Tabla 11. Trinidad and Tobagos Total Unamployntnt by Otndtr, Duration of Unaoploynant and Aga Group

Duration of ItaMmlovntnt Laaa than 1 to 3 4 to 6 7 to 11 1 Yaar Not Yaar Total 1 Month Monthi Montha Montha and Ovar Statad

Both Sanaa Total all agaa 1991 91,100 7,300 23,600 9,000 6,700 24,900 16,600 1992 99,100 6,300 31,700 12,900 8,200 23,600 14,200 1993 99,900 0,000 31,300 13,000 8,600 23,800 13,000 IS to If 1991 16,300 000 3,000 1,400 1,000 1,200 8,100 1992 13,400 000 4,400 1,300 1,000 1,200 6,700 1993 13,400 1,100 3,300 1,600 1,100 1,500 6,800 20 to 24 1991 22,300 ,200 6,000 2,600 1,700 5,100 5,700 1992 23,300 ,400 7,300 3,400 2,200 4,200 4,600 1993 21,300 ,300 3,900 3,600 2,000 4,800 3,500 - 3 2 23 to 29 1991 10,200 ,400 3.200 2,100 1,600 6,100 1,800 1992 19,300 ,400 3,300 2,800 2,200 5,700 1,700 1993 17,200 ,400 3,400 2,400 1,400 5,200 1,400

SO to 34 1991 11,400 1,400 3,300 1,200 800 4,000 700 1992 13,000 000 4,900 1,800 1,300 4,500 500 1993 It, 200 1,400 3,900 2,000 1,400 4,700 800 33 to 39 1991 7,700 1,100 2,100 900 800 2,600 200 1992 10,200 000 3,300 1,600 400 3,500 600 1993 10, €00 800 4,400 1,300 1,200 2,800 100

40 to 49 1991 9,700 900 3,300 1,000 300 3,900 100 1992 11,300 900 3,900 1,400 700 4,300 100 1993 12,400 000 4,300 1,400 1,200 4,300 200

30 to 39 1991 4,300 300 1,600 500 200 1,500 1992 4,700 300 1,900 300 300 1,700 1993 3,400 SOO 1,700 600 300 2,000 -.

60 *• 1991 1,200 200 300 100 100 500 1992 1,100 100 300 100 100 500 1993 1,400 200 400 100 500 200

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Tabla 11. Trinidad and Tobago: Total Unanploynant by Gandar, Duration of Unamploymant and Aga Oroup (Contlnuad)

Duration of Unamoloymant Laaa than 1 to 3 4 to 6 7 to 11 1 Yaar Not Yaar Total 1 Month Month! Montha Montha and Ovar Statad

Mailaa Total all agaa 1991 49,600 3,800 16,100 6,500 3,400 10,000 5,800 1992 34,200 3,000 22,400 7,600 4,300 9,300 5,400 1993 36,200 6,400 21,800 8,000 4,500 11,200 4,300

IS to 19 1991 8,000 600 2,600 1,000 500 700 3,400 1992 9,000 800 3,000 900 700 300 3,100 1993 8,300 900 2,300 800 700 800 3,000 20 to 24 1991 12,000 1,000 4,400 1,800 800 2,300 1,700 1992 12,800 900 5,200 2,000 1,100 2,100 1,500 1993 11,600 1,200 4,000 2,200 800 2,300 1,100 25 to 29 1991 10,000 1,200 3,700 1,400 900 2,300 500

1992 10,300 1,100 4,000 1,700 1,200 1,600 700 - 3 1993 10,100 1,200 3,900 1,600 800 2,400 200 30 to 94 1991 6,200 1,100 2,600 900 300 1,200 100 1992 7,100 600 3,200 1,000 700 1,500 100 1993 8,800 1,000 4,000 1,200 700 1,900 35 to 39 1991 3,600 800 1,100 400 600 700 1992 3,000 SOO 2,400 900 200 1,000 1993 3,800 600 2,600 800 700 900 --

40 to 49 1991 3,300 600 2,300 700 200 1,600 100 1992 6,300 800 2,900 700 300 1,600 1993 6,900 700 3,100 800 500 1,600

SO to 39 1991 2,800 400 1,100 300 1,000 1992 3,000 300 1,400 300. 1,000 1993 3,300 600 1,300 500 200 900 .-

60 + 1991 700 100 300 100 200 1992 700 300 100 100 200 1993 1,000 200 400 100 100 200 0

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Tabla 11. Trinidad and Tobtgoi Total Untoploymtnt by Oandar, Duration of Unaoploynant and A*a Group (Conoludad)

Duration of Unamolovnant Laaa than 1 to 3 4 to 6 7 to 11 1 Yaar Not Taar Total 1 Month Montht Nontha Monthi and Ovar Statad

Faaalaa Total all agaa 1991 41,300 1,700 7,300 3,300 3,300 14,900 10,800 1992 44,900 1,300 9,300 5,300 3,900 16,100 8,800 1993 43,700 1,600 9,700 3,000 4,100 14,600 8,700 15 to If 1991 7,300 200 1,200 400 300 500 4,700 1992 4,400 1,400 400 300 700 3,600 1993 t,900 20—0 1,000 000 400 700 3,800 20 to 24 1991 10,300 200 1,600 000 900 2,800 4,000 1992 10,300 300 2,300 1,400 1,100 2,100 3,100 1993 9,700 300 1,900 1,400 1,200 2,500 2,400

23 to 29 1991 •,200 200 1,300 700 700 3,800 1,300 - 3 4 1992 9,000 300 1,500 1,100 1,000 4,100 1,000 1993 7,100 200 1,300 000 600 2,800 1,200

30 to 34 1991 3,200 300 700 300 500 2,800 600 1992 4,700 200 1,700 800 600 3,000 400 1993 7,400 400 1,900 000 700 2,800 600

3S to 39 1991 4,100 300 1,000 300 200 1,900 200 1992 3,200 300 900 700 200 2,500 600 1993 4,800 200 1,600 300 500 1,900 100

40 to 49 1991 4,200 300 1,000 300 300 2,300 1992 3,000 100 1,000 700 400 2,700 10—0 1993 3,300 100 1,400 600 700 2,500 200

30 to 39 1991 1,300 100 500 200 200 500 1992 1,700 500 200 300 700 — 1993 1,900 20—0 400 100 100 1,100 —••

60 + 1991 300 100 100 300 _ — 1992 400 100 —w — 300 1993 400 "" — -10—0 300 20—0

Souro*: CmtraL Statistic*! Offlo*.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 35 -

VI. Social. Safety Net Prograf||s It is generally accepted that the level of poverty has been increasing in Trinidad and Tobago over the past decade of economic decline. Available data indicate households below the poverty threshold rose from 18.5 percent in 1988 to 22.5 percent in 1992. I/ Another analysis identified 12 per- cent of the population as "extremely poor" in 1992. £/ The Government has been committed to providing an effective safety net for its population. Transfers and subsidies to households and nonprofit organizations averaged 4.3 percent of GDP a year during 1982-91 and 4 percent of the GDP in 1994 (Table 12). I/ The cost of the core social safety net programs targeted towards the poor averaged about 2.4 percent of the GDP a year during 1982-94. In recent years, the Government has taken several steps to focus the social safety net programs on meeting the needs of persons displaced during the period of economic decline and structural adjustment.

1. yr°CT'*Tc The social safety net programs have focused traditionally on the provision of assistance to specific disadvantaged groups who may be unable to work--such as the old, disabled, and female heads of household with children. Three programs have provided the mainstay of the safety net: the National Insurance System, Old-Age Pensions, and the Public Assistance program. The National Insurance System (HIS) is contributory with mandatory participation for all employed persons: enrollment in the HIS was about 82 percent of all paid employees in 1994. The HIS provides for benefits at the time of retirement and in the eventuality of sickness, invalidity, maternity and employment injury of participants. It is run by the National Insurance Board (NIB), a statutory body, without transfers from the government revenues apart from the employer contribution for the civil servants. The Old-Afe Pensions Program (GAP) complements the NIS with a noncontributory pension scheme targeted specifically towards those with annual incomes of less than TT$5,000 a year. The OAP provides pensions as well as a food subsidy grant equivalent to TT$4,272 to 80 percent of its target age group of 65 years and older. The OAP, in the budgetary

I/ Henry and Melville Poverty Revisited: Trinidiad and Tobago in the late 1980. 1989; and as estimated by the IDB in An Overview of Social Sector Conditions in Trinidad and Tobago. 1993. 2J That is with insufficient incomes to purchase a minimum cost food basket that provides an average nutritional requirement of 2400 calories a day according to World Bank estimates based on a Survey of Living Conditions conducted by the Central Statistical Office of the Government of Trinidad and Tobago in May-June 1992. 37 Calculated from Trinidad and Tobago! Policy Agenda for Sustained Development, World Bank, June 1992.

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allocation of TT$211 million (0.7 percent of GDP) in 1994, has emerged as the largest social security program accounting for almost one third of government expenditures targeted to the poor. The Social Assistant Fr^g^^T (SAP) includes cash assistance and a food subsidy to persons with disabilities and to female headed households. Grants of TT$171 a month are provided for each adult and TT$158 a month for each child, up to a maximum of TT$632 per family a month. The level of benefits from this program is about 85 percent of the estimated income at the poverty line for an adult, falling lover for families with more than four children because of the ceiling on total family receipt. Budgetary allocation for the SAP was TT$54 million (0.2 percent of GDP) in 1994. The issues facing the social safety net have become more complex with the emergence of the "new poor "--persons displaced during the period of economic decline. Many of these persons and their households subsist below the poverty line, but for various reasons would not be eligible for assist- ance under any of the traditional programs. I/ The Government thus began to respond a few years ago to the needs of the "new poor" with new assist- ance programs. The needs of the "new poor" also are different from the traditional recipients of the safety net programs because many have long- term links to the labor force and are only temporarily displaced from their traditional work. In addition to short-term subsistence, they need rehabilitative assistance. The Government has expanded the existing Unemployment Relief Program 1BBE) which provides temporary employment of two-to-four fortnights a year on infrastructure and other community-based projects. The URP currently provides 7,741 jobs a fortnight; limiting employment under this program to two-to-four fortnights has allowed its coverage to benefit 58,572 workers or about half of the unemployed in the past year. Weekly payments under this program are TT$310, which are adequate to keep a household of four above the poverty line during the period of employment. £/ Budgetary allocation for this program was TT$130 million (0.5 percent of GDP) in 1994. The School Feeding Program is designed to supplement the resources of needy families with nutrition assistance targeted specifically to primary school children. In mid-1994, about 62,750 meals a day were provided through the program, each equivalent to one third of the daily nutritional requirement. The coverage of the program reaches about one third of the

I/ For example, male-headed households, where 65 percent of the poor live, do not receive assistance under the transfer programs described above unless the head of the household had a disability or was over 65 years of age. Nor does the National Insurance System offer any form of unemployment insurance or extend coverage to the self-employed, though one third of the poor live in households where the head is unemployed and another 15 percent of the poor live in households where the head is self-employed. 2/ For more details, see the section on developments and policies in the labor market.

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primary school population and is being extended to pre -primary and secondary schools through an IDB supported program. The SHARE program provides food baskets to needy families who are not eligible for assistance under the OAF or the SAP and presently covers about 6,500 households. The program also includes a rehabilitative component involving counselling, job search and limited retraining. The program is implemented by NGOs and is financed by the IDB. Programs also have been designed to target the unemployed, especially the unemployed youth, providing them training opportunities and enhancing their career prospects. These include the Youth Training ff<* fffplovment Partnership (YTEPP), the National Apprenticeship pT°gT^n> (NAP) and the Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC). i/ The Government has also undertaken to support the development of micro- enterprises. The {j^rfHi lUlfiLT^*8 Development Corporation, in particular, has been set up to assist small entrepreneurs with credit, equity capital and business support. Also, the Government helps retraining displaced workers and single heads of households through the Retraining for Displaced Workers ^ftgy*™ In addition to the programs described here, there are several smaller programs that address the needs of the vulnerable groups of society. 2J Moreover, significant social support is provided by the activities of almost 500 NGOs in the country, some with government financial assistance. 2. Issues Although the social safety net is extensive, it has been challenged in recent years by emerging new needs that have highlighted some weaknesses in its design and implementation. These relate to an absence of an overall policy framework and administrative structure that continuously prioritize and evaluate existing programs. Also, the system appears to have a bias towards amelioration rather than rehabilitation, and its effectiveness could be improved by better targeting. Eight different ministries deliver the various programs in the safety net with no effective agency to lead and coordinate their activities. I/ As a result, the overall social safety net has been slow to respond to changing economic circumstances. The social

I/ For detail description of these programs, see the section on developments and policies in die labor market. 2/ These include youth camps, free bus passes, burial assistance, child guidance clinics, legal aid and advice, homes for the aged, day care centers for the elderly, emergency grants, urgent temporary assistance grants, and education grants. 3/ Ministry of Social Development, Ministry of Community Development, Culture and Women's Affairs, Ministry of Education, Ministry of Works, Ministry of Sport and Youth Affairs, Ministry of National Security and the Ministry of Housing and Settlements.

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safety net also needs to be re-evaluated to provide incentives for people to move off public assistance as there is no tine limit to receipt of such assistance. While sustainable employment opportunities will ultimately depend on diversified economic growth, it is important that the safety net programs include adequate facilities for retraining, extension and technical support services. One of the most urgent issues in the social security system at present is the imbalance between the contributory and the noncontributory systems of retirement incomes. Over the years, the relative importance of the contri- butory pension system provided by the NIS has declined with an erosion in the real level of benefits provided. The last actuarial review of the NIB questioned the continuing relevance of the Board given the low level of actual benefits, and cautioned about financial unsustainability of the Board if the level of contributions to the NIS were not increased. I/ The legal and institutional framework governing the NIB has constrained its management effectiveness and contributed to the present problem. In contrast, the noncontributory, means tested Old-Age Pension Scheme has lost its targeting edge and has expanded to cover 80 percent of the population over 65 years of age, benefitting twice the number of pensioners covered by the NIS. It also provides benefits marginally higher than the highest pension paid by the NIS. The projected doubling of the population in the over 65 age group in the coming decade would raise further the imbalance that has emerged between the contributory and the noncontributory system of social security. This problem needs to be addressed without delay because it would not be financially sustainable to provide such coverage from the general revenues of the Government. One approach would be to restructure and strengthen the contributory social security system while targeting more efficiently the noncontributory system. Targeting mechanisms in most social safety net programs are largely informal, with few objective criteria defining eligibility. In many programs, the choice of beneficiaries is left to the delivering agency. While there is no indication of widespread leakage of program benefits to nontarget populations, there is little systematic information on the effectiveness of targeting. The absence of monitoring, coupled with the administrative fragmentation of the social safety net system, also has led to many duplications in service delivery (knowledgeable recipients often benefit from several different programs run by different ministries) with increased administrative costs. The problems of duplication of services and equity in access underscore the importance of the explicitness of eligibility criteria and effective monitoring systems.

i/ The highest pensions provided constitute only 21 percent of average earnings.

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Table 12: Trinidad and Tobago : Central Gorermtent Expenditure Targeted at the Poor (TT» «

Prel. Eat. 1*89 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Total Expenditure 317.8 437.9 507.5 433.0 537.5 674.6 Book and unifnra grant (primary) 5.7 12.9 29.6 28.9 School 1 ••ding program — 29.—2 — 22.—1 72.—3 Orphanages 8.3 9.9 13.3 11.8 15.7 Statutory boards 7.1 7.3 9.1 — 9.1 9.5 Nonprofit institution* 3.7 4.7 6.0 8.—6 21.4 32.8 Hadieal treatment of nationals 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.6 Grants to needy patients 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Social assistance 37.9 37.0 40.5 40.5 41.3 54.3 Old age pansions 141.7 160.1 171.5 178.3 184.1 211.3 Food subsidy 54,7 60.5 61.8 59.3 68.2 89.5 0.1 0.1 School crossing guard* — Echo f ••dins *or the needy 2.6 8.4 3.—5 3.—4 3.—5 Rational cauudssion salf help — 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 People oriantad prograsv (CASE) — 11.4 10.3 1.0 1.7 5.0 Rational service •— 1.2 3.3 1.0 0.6 1.0 Apprenticeship schenei — 1.9 2.3 8.5 22.0 Mt. Bone trust fond 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.5 — — ... Grants to friendly societies — 1.0 0.1 0.3 Urgent temporary assistance — 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.5 UneoploysMnt prograsi — — 51.—3 113.—2 148.6 114.9 124.7 130.0 TTEPP •• "*™ «M» 25.6 25.0

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

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VII. yjjTyrpgfral Liberalization Financial liberalization has been an integral part of Trinidad and Tobago's efforts to restructure the economy for sustained growth. The boom years of the mid-1970s had resulted in a rapid expansion of the financial system including a significant increase in the number of financial insti- tutions; some laxity in prudential considerations and the introduction of several controls to steer financial activities in certain directions. Subsequently, the general economic downturn that started in 1981 led to low profits and solvency problems for some financial institutions. Financial restructuring has entailed the introduction of reforms to promote a more competitive financial system and thus a more efficient allo- cation of financial resources. The reforms have concentrated on the elimination of distortions which may have led to financial repression with adverse effects on savings, investment and economic growth. !/ This section outlines the forms of financial repression that existed in Trinidad and Tobago and the measures taken to liberalize the financial system during 1985-94 following a period of rapid expansion, weak supervision and associated failures of financial institutions.

1. Financial controls and repression

Soon after independence in 1962 and up to 19849 instruments of monetary controls were directed toward the maintenance of internal and external equilibria in the absence of efficient mechanisms for indirect monetary management. These controls included principally high legal reserve requirements, prudential norms, and credit ceilings. There were two types of reserve requirements. The primary reserve requirement consisted of a specified proportion of deposit liabilities that had to be held in the form of vault cash and/or noninterest- bearing deposits at the Central Bank. The secondary reserve requirement was a specified proportion of deposit liabilities that had to be held in special interest bearing deposits at the Central Bank and/or in Treasury bills. The specified proportion in each case was higher for commercial banks than for nonbank financial institutions. These differences encouraged the rapid growth of nonbank financial institutions that took place during the late 1970s-early 1980s. The Central Bank adjusted the reserve requirements as and when necessary to accommodate macroeconomic policies in terms of liquidity management and borrowing requirement of the Government.

I/ See Vittas (ed.) (1992) Financial Regulation. Changing the Rules of the Game. EDI, World Bank, for a description of the types of financial sector controls that may generate distortions. The types of controls are not mutually exclusive since the actual measures deployed may service more than one type of control.

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Credit ceilings took the form of Central Bank guidelines in respect of installment credit, and consumer lending to regulated borrowers. I/ Guidelines on installment credit set maximum repayment periods While those on consumer credit established limits on loans by individual banks. The guidelines on selected borrowers, restrictions cm lending to nonresidents-- as part of an indigenization process-•included a prohibition of increases in credit to entities with majority foreign ownership and/or on aggregate ceiling on loans to such borrowers. Similarly, restrictions were placed from time to time on loans to public enterprises. For instance, in April 1989, a guideline was added with a view to limiting the expansion of outstanding loans and advances to state enterprises and statutory bodies without prior consultation with the Central Bank. Trinidad and Tobago's experience with interest rate management prior to the liberalization of the financial system can be subdivided into three periods; 1964-74, when membership in the sterling area required domestic interest rates to move closely with international sterling interest rates; 1975-85, when the exchange rate was pegged at TT$2.40 per U.S. dollar and the authorities attempted to influence levels of liquidity in the banking system by introducing a marginal reserve requirement; and 1986-88, when the Central Bank sought to limit any increase in lending rates and to minimize the size of the spread between deposit and loan rates through moral suasion. In addition, the Central Bank induced banks to grant preferential rates to selected sectors, e.g., agriculture. Nevertheless, lending rates charged by banks rose during times of tight liquidity and did not always move in the opposite direction to reflect easy money market conditions. Deposit rates were generally lowered when money market conditions were easy but did not increase significantly when condi- tions became tight. It was against this background that the Central Bank Act was amended in 1978 to include the provision that the President of the Republic could on the basis of the Central Bank's advice, fix interest rates for loans or deposits. Although interest rates were not fixed explicitly, the Central Bank used moral suasion to influence key interest rates. Interest rates on deposits were negative in real terms during 1981-90, possibly reflecting the lack of alternative abort term savings instruments, the depressed state of the economy and the impact of exchange controls (Table 13 and Chart 5). The Central Bank set the rediscount rate with a view to assisting banks experiencing serious liquidity problems. Other restrictions on nonbank financial institutions included the requirement in 1967 of foreign banks and insurance companies to become locally incorporated and sell 25 percent of their shares to nationals, the exhortation of foreign banks to divest at least 51 percent of their issued capital into local hands, and the constraint on these banks on opening new

I/ Regulated borrowers included public enterprises, statutory bodies and foreign entities.

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branches. These restrictions were part of a deliberate policy to indigenize financial institutions. I/ Allocative guidelines sought to direct financial resources toward selected projects and sectors reflecting the underdevelopment of capital markets and the lack of other sources of long-term finance. Policies included the subsidization of investments that the authorities considered may not have been undertaken at high interest rates but that had high social returns. The subsidy was controlled through a rediscount facility at the Central Bank for qualifying commercial bank loans. The Central Bank also established guidelines for the allocation of bank credit by economic activity. The Government created special institutions to extend subsidized credit to targeted activities; these included the Agricultural Development Bank, the Development Finance Company, the Unit Trust Corporation, and the Mortgage Finance Company. Structural controls governed the entry of new institutions in die market, established the range of activities that different institutions could pursue, and determined the size of individual institutions. In 1965 the Government established a Capital Issues Committee to oversee activities in the primary market while the Central Bank established an association of share dealers (the Call Exchange) to encourage activities in the secondary market. In this regard, the Financial Institutions Act required banks to give preference to short-term instruments originating in Trinidad and Tobago when placing liquid assets, and this constituted a form of asset prescription.

Some of the elements described above constituted distortions in the financial system. Interest rates were significantly negative in real terms throughout the period 1965*88, with possible constraining effects on economic growth (Chart 6). Low real returns on deposits may have contributed to low savings that resulted in an adverse selection of projects as those with low profitability and low risk were encouraged while those with higher risks but more profitable were rationed or discouraged. The legal reserve requirements became higher than what may be considered necessary for prudential considerations; about 10 percentage points higher than in countries at a similar stage of development. The distortions created by the financial controls--particularly the implied discrimination against banks--led to the number of nonbank financial institutions being increased rapidly either as subsidiaries of banks (to circumvent some of the controls) or as free-standing institutions (to benefit from the rent created by the distortions). In response to the incentives referred to above, the number of nonbank financial institutions increased from 7 in 1966 to about 32 by 1988 (Table 14). 2/ However, a

X/ Before independence in 1962 the banking system was dominated by branches of British and Canadian banks. 2/ The number of credit unions, thrift institutions and insurance companies rose to 484 by 1980.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 42a - CHABT 5 TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO FINANCIAL INDICATORS

Source IMF. International Financial Statistics.

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CHART 6 Trinidad & Tobago Selected Interest Rates, 1965-93

Source: IMF. Inlernotionoi Finonciol Stottstics.

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significant number of these nonbank institutions vere weak with substantial amount of nonperforming loans; by 1983, 5 finance houses experienced rims on deposits that led to their subsequent closure. Finally, the set of regula- tions created a captive market for financing public sector activities and supporting nonbank financial institutions experiencing solvency difficulties. Following the failure of some financial institutions, the Deposit Insurance Corporation (DIG) was established in 1986 with a view to restoring confidence in the banking system. The DIG was primarily funded by contributions from the Central Bank and it paid out TT$176 million in 1987 and TT$20 million in 1988 in deposit insurance claims on finance houses that were closed in 1986. After these payments, commercial banks were required to increase their provisions for losses and their contributions to the DIG in late 1988. In September 1993, three government owned financial institutions; the Cooperative Bank, the Workers' Bank and the National Commercial Bank were merged to form the First Citizen's Bank in order to strengthen their oper- ations and prepare the new bank for eventual privatization. In an effort to foster confidence in the financial sector, strengthen supervision and forestall liquidity problems, the Financial Institutions Act and the Central Bank Act were amended in 1993 and 1994, respectively. The amendments to the Central Bank Act contain provisions for capital adequacy ratios, and procedures for monitoring loan portfolios. 2. Liberalization measures It was in the above setting that the authorities decided in 1989 to undertake reforms to strengthen the financial system and to rely on market- determined interest rates, indirect instruments for monetary management and foster savings and investment for higher economic growth. I/ The liberal- ization of the financial system also was expected to increase the size of the financial system and improve competition among the institutions and thereby narrow the spread between deposit and lending interest rates. The liberalization was to benefit from and enhance the role of the Stock Exchange which was established in 1981 to replace the Capital Issues Committee and the Call Exchange. The authorities recognized that a stable macroeconomic environment and a strong supervisory and regulatory framework for financial institutions were necessary for a successful financial liberalization. To this end, they had adopted in 1988 the economic stabilization program referred to in Section II.

I/ The justification for financial liberalization is rooted in the classical view of savings determining the level of investment; HcKitmon (1973) and Shaw (1973). Extensive work has been done to extend this basic framework in the context of both open and closed economy models; Kapur (1976), Mathieson (1980) and Galbis (1977).

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The first area addressed was credit ceilings and controls. In October 1988, the guidelines on credit to regulated borrowers were relaxed and replaced by an overall ceiling of 10 percent on individual bank lending to foreign-owned enterprises. In addition, controls on the operations of foreign banks •-including those limiting their branches--were removed in 1990. All selective credit controls and guidelines were removed during the first quarter of 1994. The secondary reserve requirement was raised from 5 percent to 11 percent at the end of 1987 while the primary reserve requirement was reduced from 15 percent to 9 percent. I/ This created a captive market for treasury bills, as commercial banks had to increase their holdings of treasury bills. This policy was reversed in 1989 as the secondary reserve requirement was reduced from 11 percent to 9 percent in January 1989, to 7 percent in May and 5 percent in July in an effort to widen the market for treasury bills and at the same time help reduce the spread between commercial bank's deposit and lending rates. However, to prevent a possible surge in credit, the primary reserve requirement was increased from 9 percent to 12 percent in July 1989. As the market for treasury bills developed, the secondary reserve requirement was eliminated in January 1991. With a view to moving the banking system towards market determined interest rates and to discourage commercial bank borrowing from the Central Bank, the rediscount rate was raised to 9.5 percent in 1988 and the Central Bank adopted a policy of malnraiTiing the rediscount rate at a ml^ili*"^ of 2 percentage points above the weighted average interest rate on commercial bank time deposits. In addition, a timetable was set for commercial banks to reduce their outstanding advances from the Central Bank. Legislation allowing an increase in the amount of treasury bills and other government securities from TT$5 billion to TT$7 billion is expected to be enacted in the first quarter of 1995. 3. Results of liberalization

A principal result of financial liberalization, together with the liberalization of the trade and exchange systems has been to provide the basis for the establishment of mechanisms for indirect instruments of monetary management. Also, monthly interest rates on savings deposits, special deposits and term deposits have become significantly positive in real terms (Table 15). Section VIII below assesses whether there has been an outward shift in the demand for money function as market-determined interest rates begin to reflect more fully economic conditions, the riskiness of assets, and the emergence of new financial instruments.

I/ Treasury bill holdings were included in secondary reserves.

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Table 13. Trinidad and Tobago: Selected Indicators for the Financial Sector I/

Yaar SIR RDR RI* TR DR LR DCR/GDP CCG/GDP DCR/M2

1965 3.0 4.8 13.4 2.0 64.1 1966 0.8 4.9 17.3 4.5 72.9 1967 2.9 — — 5.1 16.4 2.5 69.1

1968 5.8 — 16.9 3.5 71.0 -2.2 — — — 1969 2.7 2.7 — — 5.2 — 20.1 75.5 1970 — 24.3 81.7 2.7 — — 5.3 — 4.2

— 26.8 6.4 1971 1.5 — — 5.1 — 78.3

1972 -5.1 — — 3.7 — 31.9 7.3 92.0 4.4 1973 -9.1 — — — — 31.8 8.6 99.2 1974 -13.5 — — . 5.6 — — 8.8 -7.3 34.4 1975 4.0 -3.7 -20.6 -14.2 -11.1 — — _— — _ 1976 -6.1 — — 4.0 — -5.6 -26.1 -18.1 .. 1977 -7.0 3.9 — -13.3 -36.8 -42.5 — — . — 1978 -6.0 .. 3.6 -10.8 -38.3 -31.4 1979 _ -10.1 — 3.2 — — -6.9 -31.8 -19.8 1980 -12.3 -6.4 — — 3.1 — 10.—0 -9.7 -32.2 -33.9 1981 -9.9 -6.— -2.6 3.1 6.6 11.4 -7.8 -34.0 -23.4 1982 -7.7 -4. -0.1 3.0 6.3 11.5 9.3 -18.2 24.0 1983 -10.5 -7. -3.0 3.1 6.4 11.7 25.1 -8.0 59.2 1984 -8.8 -5. -0.5 3.4 6.8 12.8 32.8 -3.2 73.3 1985 -3.9 -2. 4.7 3.5 5.3 12.7 34.9 -2.3 73.7 1986 -3.4 -1. 4.0 4.0 6.0 12.0 45.4 6.1 95.4 1987 -5.5 -4. 0.7 4.6 6.0 11.5 52.7 11.0 107.1 1988 -2.9 -1. 4.5 4.6 6.0 12.6 54.5 12.3 110.2 1989 -3.9 -4. 1.7 7.1 6.3 13.3 53.3 12.9 107.8 1990 -3.2 -4. 1.7 7.5 6.0 12.9 45.9 11.3 102.2 1991 3.7 1. 9.0 7.7 !5.8 13.2 48.8 10.4 110.4 1992 2.6 0.5 8.3 9.3 r.o 15.3 50.3 12.4 121.2 1993 -1.2 -3.4 4.3 9.4 1F.I 15.5 45.4 9.3 103.7

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TabU 13. Trinidad and Tobago: Selected Indicator* for the Financial Saetoz I/ (Concluded)

Year 006/M2 CPVT/K2 HZ/GDP GDP/M2 COBR/M2 DD/M2 SD/M2 TD/K2 SEZG- MQBASE 27

1965 9.6 54.5 20.9 4.8 13.7 34.7 43.0 13.0 1966 19.0 53.9 23.8 4.2 13.8 29.6 42.5 14.9 1.0 1967 10.6 58.5 23.8 4.2 13.4 30.1 42.2 16.7 1968 14.9 56.1 23.8 4.2 13.4 24.9 41.2 20.5 1.5 1969 10.0 65.5 26.6 3.8 12.2 21.1 41.3 25.1 -0.3 1970 14.0 67.6 29.7 3.4 11.6 20.2 38.8 30.2 0.6 1971 18.6 59.7 34.2 2. 11.3 18.3 39.0 31.8 1.6 1972 21.0 69.5 34.7 2. 11.2 18.0 41.1 29.7 0.6 1973 26.8 71.2 32.1 3. 9.7 16.0 34.4 39.8 0.8 1974 -28.5 62.1 25.6 3. 9.2 16.5 31.6 43.3 3.6 1975 -78.6 64.0 26.2 3. 10.0 19.1 34.0 37.7 3.3 1976 -85.5 67.0 30.6 3. 9.5 20.9 36.3 33.0 2.6 1977 -117.5 74.7 31.3 3. 9.8 21.2 34.1 35.2 0.3 1978 -111.4 79.6 34.4 2. 10.0 21.3 33.1 35.1 0.4 1979 -92.0 72.0 34.5 2. 10.8 20.7 31.1 38.8 4.8 1980 -112.1 77.0 28.7 3. 10.9 22.5 31.5 37.4 0.7 1981 -101.7 73.9 33.4 3. .7 25.9 29.2 37.0 1.8 1982 -47.2 66.2 38.6 2. .8 23.4 31.1 34.4 5.2 1983 -18.9 71.5 42.4 2. .6 19.0 30.5 38.8 -0.8 1984 -7.1 72.8 44.8 2. .5 14.7 29.0 43.5 -1.1 1985 -4.9 69.2 47.4 2. .1 15.1 29.2 44.1 0.9 1986 12.8 72.1 47.6 2. .8 13.4 32.0 42.6 -2.2 1987 22.4 72.1 49.2 2. .3 12.9 30.3 44.1 -2.6 1988 24.8 69.0 49.5 2. 7.9 U.I 28.0 50.1 0.2 1989 26.0 €8.0 49.5 2. 7.6 12.7 29.8 46.8 1.2 1990 25.2 46.5 44.9 2. 7.6 15.2 92.3 41.0 0.9 1991 23.5 76.8 44.3 2. 7.5 18.7 34.1 36.4 1.6 1992 29.9 83.6 41.5 2. 7.6 19.3 35.2 35.6 -1.1 1993 21.2 75.2 43.8 2. 6.7 19.5 34.5 36.0 -0.4

Source: ZFS Databasa and Monthly Statistical Digaats.

I/ ftaal rataa of intaraat are calculated by the following formula; [Cl+r)/(14p)-l)*100 «here r ia tha nominal rata of intaraat and p ia tha rata of inflation. IK ia tha Treasury bill rata; OR ia tha median dapoait rata; LR ia tha median landing rata; tha zaal versions of thaaa variables ara danotad by CE) at tha beginning of tha descriptor; BHL6 refers to tha real intaraat rate on six months time deposits; DCR refers to domestic credit; COG refers to net claims on tha Central Govaament; CP7T refers to claims on

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Table 14: Trinidad and Tobago: Humber of Financial Institutions

Institution 1966 1975 1978 1980 1985 1988

Cantral Bank 1 1 1 1 1 1 Commercial banks 7 9 9 9 8 8 Branch** 54 91 99 105 117 121 Finance companies and merchant banks 2 7 12 12 14 10 Trust and mortgage finance companies 3 5 7 7 8 8 Development banks I/ 2 3 3 3 3 3 Cradit unions 2/ 312 284 308 420 381 400 Insurance companies 57 62 60 57 56 Thrift institutions — 4 4 4 4 4 Rational Insurance Board — 1 1 1 1 1 Stock exchange — 1 1 1 Unit Trust Corporation — — — 1 1 Export credit insurance —1 —1 —1 —1 1 1 Reinsurance cuuipaiij 1 1 1 1 Deposit Insurance Corporation — — 1 Hone mortgage bank — — — — — 1 Total 32—8 37—2 40—9 52—0 48—1 497

Source: CBTT Research Department 1991, "Financial System in Trinidad and Tobago". I/ Includes Trinidad and Tobago Mortgage Finance Company. 2/ Refers to the number of registered societies, a large number is not active.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Tabia IS, Trinidad and Tobago: Monthly Raal Intartat Rataa

Jan. Pab. March April May Jun. July Aug. Sapt. Oct. Nov. Dae.

1987 8R 2.5 0.7 1.5 2.0 2.2 1.6 1.4 1.7 3.4 3.1 2.6 2.2 8POR S.S 3. 6 4.5 5.0 5.2 4.6 4.3 4.7 6.7 6.4 3.9 5.6 THREE (.1 4.2 5.1 6.0 6.2 5.5 5.3 3.3 7.1 6.8 5.9 3.4 SIX (.7 4.6 5.4 6.2 6.4 5.8 5.6 5.9 7.7 7.4 6.8 6.3 1988 SR 1.8 3.3 2.9 2.8 3.1 1.9 2.4 2.4 1.3 1.1 1.7 2.6 8SR 4.3 6.1 5.6 5.6 5.9 4.6 5.2 5.1 4.0 3.7 4.4 3.3 THREE 4.5 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.2 4.8 5.4 5.3 4.3 4.7 4.9 6.6 SIX 5.7 7.3 7.0 7.0 7.2 6.0 6.5 6.4 3.3 5.2 6.2 7.2 1989 SR 1.7 2.8 3.0 3.1 2.7 2.4 2.2 2.6 2.4 1.7 2.3 1.3 8SR 4.4 5.5 5.8 5.9 5.5 5.1 4.9 5.4 3.1 4.9 5.5 4.5 THREE 5.7 7.2 7.4 7.2 6.0 5.6 5.3 5.7 5.5 5.2 5.9 4.9 SIX 6.3 7.4 7.6 7.5 6.6 5.4 5.7 6.0 5.8 5.5 6.1 5.1

1990 - 4 8 SR -0.3 2.6 2.5 1.4 2.5 1.8 2.3 2.3 2.0 1.8 2.3 2.6 8SR 2.8 5.9 5.8 4.6 5.7 5.0 3.5 3.5 5.3 5.0 5.5 5.8 THREE 2.7 5.8 5.5 4.2 5.5 5.0 5.6 3.5 5.3 5.0 5.8 6.1 SIX 3.4 6.3 6.1 5.0 6.1 5.6 6.0 6.0 5.7 5.6 6.2 6.3 1991 SR 2.1 2.7 2.4 2.6 1.8 2.5 2.8 2.3 2.6 2.2 1.8 1.7 8SR 3.6 6.2 5.9 6.1 5.3 6.0 6.3 6.0 6.1 5.7 5.2 3.1 THREE 5.7 6.3 5.4 5.7 4.8 5.6 6.0 3.9 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.8 SIX (.2 6.6 5.9 6.1 5.3 6.0 6.2 6.1 6.3 6.3 6.4 6.9 1992 SR 1.6 1.7 2.8 1.2 2.0 1.0 2.2 2.4 2.8 2.1 1.4 1.3 8SR 5.2 3.3 6.4 4.9 3.8 4.7 5.9 6.1 6.6 3.9 5.2 5.0 THREE 6.5 (.7 7.9 6.4 7.4 6.0 7.3 7.3 7.9 7.4 6.7 6.5 SIX 7.1 7.2 8.3 6.9 7.7 6.8 7.9 8.0 8.5 7.8 7.0 6.8 1993 SR 2.8 2.1 2.9 0.5 0.2 2.2 2.0 2.2 0.7 2.4 2.1 8SR (.3 5.5 6.4 3.9 3.6 3.—4 3.7 3.5 5.6 4.2 5.9 5.6 6.9 3.7 6.5 TnprAEUVEipb 7.8 7.0 7.8 5.4 5.2 4.9 7.2 6.9 7.4 SIX 8.2 7.4 8.2 5.8 5.8 5.5 7.9 7.4 6.9 3.8 7.5 7.6

Souroa: Calculated from varioua laiuaa of tha Monthly Digttb of Statiatiea.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 49 - APPENDIX

The Structure of the Financial System The financial system comprises the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago, six deposit money banks (commercial banks), other banking institutions and nonbank financial institutions. Other banking institutions comprise twelve finance companies and merchant banks, eight trust companies and mortgage finance companies, four thrift institutions, two development banks, four hundred credit unions and the Post Office savings Bank. Nonbank financial institutions comprise sixty insurance companies, a unit trust, the Deposit Insurance Corporation (DIG) about two hundred pension funds and the Stock Exchange. The Central Bank has supervisory functions over the operations of commercial banks, finance companies and merchant banks; they are required to submit monthly reports to the Central Bank. The rest of the financial institutions fall outside the jurisdiction of the Central Bank and only report to the Central Bank on a voluntary basis. 1. Monetary Authority The Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago is the monetary authority and its role is to manage the country's official international reserves, to issue currency and coins, to be the banker and fiscal agent for government, and to hold the statutory reserves of the banking institutions. It is also responsible for the transactions with the Fund.

2. Commercial banks The number of commercial banks fell from eight to six on September 13, 1993, when the Trinidad Co-operative Bank, the Workers' Bank and the National Commercial Bank in September 1993, were merged to form the First Citizens' Bank (F£B). Commercial banks incur liabilities in the form of transferable deposits. Banks are required to report to the Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago through monthly statements of condition. The statements have to be submitted within 20 working days of the period which is being reported on. 3. Other banking institutions The Financial Institutions (Nonbanking) Act is the statute that governs the operations of other banking institutions. These entities include mer- chant banks, finance companies, credit unions, trust and mortgage companies. They incur liabilities in the form of nontransferable deposits such as fixed, time, and savings deposits and securities. Finance companies and merchant banks are required to report to the Central Bank on a monthly basis while thrift institutions are not required statutorily to report to the Central Bank but voluntarily do so on a quarterly basis. 4. Nonbank financial institutions

Nonbank financial institutions comprise insurance companies and various types of pension and mutual funds. Together these institutions are the largest group in terms of domestic savings mobilization, after commercial

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution • 50 - APPENDIX

banks. These institutions fall under the supervision of the Ministry of Finance and are not regulated by the Central Bank. 5. Licensing The licensing requirement is that a bank has capital of at least TT$500,000 of Which a minium of TT$300,000 must be subscribed. At least TT$200,000 or 30 percent of the authorized capital, whichever is greater, must be paid in cash. Apart from the requirement that they be registered under the provisions of the companies Ordinance and that they supply the Central Bank with certified copies of their memoranda, foreign banks face the same conditions as local banks. 6. Prudential requirements At the end of each financial year, each bank is required to transfer at least 10 percent of net profits into a Reserve Fund until this fund reaches the level of the paid up capital. Deposit liabilities of banks should not exceed 20 times the paid up capital plus the Reserve Fund. Licensed banks are required to maintain a Reserve Account with the Central Bank, in which they are required to deposit a certain ratio of total prescribed liabilities as determined by the Central Bank from time to time. At present, the reserve requirement ratio stands at 20 percent. The Financial Institutions Act requires banks to give preference to short-dated instruments originating in Trinidad and Tobago when placing their liquid assets. The Act provides for the appointment of an Inspector and the granting of the necessary powers for the carrying out of his func- tions. Each licensed bank is required to submit regularly statements of its assets and liabilities, loans and advances, earnings and expenses and other financial data as the Central bank may require.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 51 -

VIII. The Demand for Currency and Broad Money This section analyzes the demand for currency and broad money in Trinidad and Tobago through econometric models that incorporate cointe- gration and error correction mechanisms. Co integration requires finding long-term relationships between currency and broad money and other economic variables such as income and the interest rate. I/ Once found, these long-run relationships describe in effect the steady state. Moreover, if cointegration exists, general dynamic models may be specified with error correction mechanisms that show the process of adjustment of the economic variables from their short-run position to the steady state. 2/ Generally, it is expected that an increase in real income would lead to an increase in the demand for currency and broad money, and vice versa. An increase in the real interest rate would result in a decline in the demand for currency, but would have an ambiguous effect on the demand for broad money. The effect of an increase in the real interest rate on the demand for broad money would depend on the weight of currency and demand deposits and interest-earning deposits instruments in broad money. An increase in inflation--holding everything else constant--would result in a decline in the demand for currency and broad money. However, an increase in inflation that brings about an increase in nominal interest rates would not neces- sarily have an effect on broad money as the increase in the demand for interest earning assets could offset the decline in the demand for currency and demand deposits. In general dynamic models, the sign of the coefficient corresponding to the error correction mechanism must be negative to ensure that an adjustment indeed takes place from the short-run position to the steady state. In other words, the difference between the desired and actual demand for currency and broad money becomes smaller over time in order to eventually reach the steady state, or desired long-run relationships. The presence of the error correction term reflects in effect efforts to correct for errors from past decisions. The long-run relationships (or solutions) can be derived from fifth- order autoregressive-distributed lag representations for real currency and real broad money. For Trinidad and Tobago, the estimations of long-run relationships using quarterly data yielded 3/

I/ Currency refers to currency in circulation, and broad money stands for the broadest monetary aggregate or M2. 2/ Appendix I describes the economic framework that incorporates cointegration and error correction mechanisms in demand functions for currency and broad money. It also provides a test to analyze the stationary of the time series used in this chapter. The test shows that all the variables included in the demand functions for real currency and real broad money are stationary as required by cointegration. 3/ The econometric work was done in the statistical package PC-GIVE. See Hendry (1989) for details about this package.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 52 -

ct* - -0.046rt -i- 1.297yt - 4.788 (1) and

m2t* - -0.022rt + 1.68yt - 4.487 (2)

where ct* represents real currency, rt denotes the real interest rate, yt stands for real income as measured by the real GDP, and m2t is real broad money. I/ With the exception of the real interest rate, all other variables are in natural log terms. The signs of the coefficients for the long-run relationship for real currency are consistent with what is expected by economic theory. 2/ An increase in real income would result in an increase in the demand for real currency. The long-run elasticity of real income with respect to real currency is statistically not different from one, which implies that a 1 percent increase in real income would result in almost a 1 percent increase in real currency holdings. In other words, a long-run real income elasticity of one implies a constant income velocity. An increase in the real interest rate would bring about a decline in real currency holdings. This result is consistent with the notion that the real interest rate represents the opportunity cost of holding money. The results of the long-run relationship for real broad money are partly in line with what is predicted by economic theory. An increase in real income would lead to an increase in the demand for real broad money in the long-run. The long-run elasticity of .real income with respect to real broad money is statistically greater than one (i.e., an increase of 1 percent in real income would bring about a larger increase in real broad money), indicating a process of financial deepening in Trinidad and Tobago. An increase in the real interest rate would result in a decline in real broad money in the long-run. However, the opposite would be expected because currency plus demand deposits represent only 26 percent of broad money. The result then could reflect the effects of the financial

I/ Data on currency, broad money, prices, and nominal interest rates were obtained from the International Financial Statistics. Currency and broad money were deflated by the consumer price index to obtain real currency and real broad money. Real interest rates were calculated as nominal interest rates minus inflation. The quarterly real GDP was derived from the annual real GDP by a linear interpolation model. 2J Appendix I presents a test for cointegration for both equations (1) and (2). The test would suggest that real currency and real broad money are not cointegrated with real income and the real interest rate. However, cointegration also can be tested in general dynamic models that include error correction mechanisms. The significance of error correction mechanism in general dynamic models indicates the existence of cointegration.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 53 -

repression characterized in part by interest rate controls over the period of the estimation. I/

An ordinary least squares estimation (OLS) estimation of a general dynamic demand function for real currency yielded the following results:

Act « 0.1900Act_3 -0.9952Apt + 0.0446dc - 0.1623ecmct_i (2.24)** (-3.75)*** (4.55)*** (-4.61)*** (3) + 0.0221 (2.64)***

T - 1967.2 • 1994.1 LM1(1,92) (F-form) - 0.07 (3.96) R2 - 0.35 LM2(4,89) (F-form) - 2.45 (2.49) F(5,92) - 12.54 ARCH(4,84) (F-form) - 0.85 (2.49) a - 0.0412 HET(7,85) (F-form) - 0.95 (2.13) RSS - 0.1585 NORM(2) (CHI-form) - 0.71 (5.99) Forecast CHI(10/10) - 1.28

where A represents change, pt is the level of prices, and dct denotes a dummy variable that accounts for the seasonal increase in currency demand in the fourth quarter of every year, and ecmct.^ stands for the error correction mechanism (or the error disturbance term of the long-run relationship in equation (1)). Lagged variables are indicated by the suffix t-i, where i-l,...,n. The numbers in parenthesis represent t-statistics, with an asterisk implying significance at the 10 percent level, two asterisks at 5 percent level, and three asterisks at the 1 percent level. 2/ The diagnostic tests are followed in parenthesis by their 5 percent critical values. The residuals in this general dynamic demand function for real currency are not subject to serial autocorrelation nor heteroscedasticity, and are normally distributed because the values of the diagnostic tests do not exceed their critical values The acceptable parameter consistency test demonstrates the stability of the demand for real currency.

The results in equation (3) show that the demand for real currency in Trinidad and Tobago is consistent with some of the expected results, and indicate the importance of a persistence effect as well as the existence of co integration. A 10 percent increase in prices--holding everything else constant--would result in a decline of 9.9 percent of a percentage point in

i/ Section VII presents a description of the financial repression in Trinidad and Tobago. 2/ See Appendix II for a description of time series properties and diagnostic tests.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 54 -

the change of real currency in Trinidad and Tobago. I/ A 10 percent increase in real currency•-holding the change in prices constant--would lead to nearly a 2 percent of one percentage point increase in the change of real currency in three quarters. The coefficient of the error correction term has the expected sign, and is significant at the 1 percent level. However, the snail size of the coefficient associated with this term indicates a very slow adjustment from the short-run position to the steady state. The coefficient of the dummy variable is also significant at the 1 percent level. Changes in real income and the real interest rate are not signi- ficant in determining real currency demand in the short-run, and thus were excluded from the estimation of this general dynamic demand for real currency. An OLS estimation of a general dynamic demand for real broad money gave the following results:

Am2t « 0.2147Am2t_2 - 0.6772Apt + 0.4149 Ayt _x - 0.0633ecm2t_i (2.49)" (-3.93)*" (2.15)" (-3.23)*** (4) + 0.0216 (4.08)***

T - 1967.2 - 1994.1 1*1(1,92) (F-form) - 1.19 (3.96) R* - 0.41 1*2(4,89) (F-form) - 2.29 (2.49) F(5,93) - 16.33 ARCH(4,85) (F-form) - 0.47 (2.49) a - 0.0272 MET(8,84) (F-form) - 0.81 (2.06) RSS - 0.0689 NORM(2) (CHI-form) - 0.04 (5.99) Forecast CHI (10/10)- 1.05 where ecm2t.1 denotes the error correction term obtained from the static long-run solution for real broad money demand in equation (2). As with the estimated general dynamic demand for real currency, all the diagnostic tests are acceptable in this estimation of real broad money. Moreover, the acceptable parameter consistency test indicates the stability of the demand for real broad money.

The results in equation (4) show that the demand for real broad money in Trinidad and Tobago in general reflects what is predicted by economic theory, and demonstrate the importance of a persistence effect, and the existence of co integration. A 10 percent increase in prices--holding everything else constant--would result in a decline of almost 7 percent of a percentage point of the change in real broad money. A 10 percent increase in real income would bring about an increase of 4 percent of a percentage

I/ In other words, a 1 percent increase in prices would bring about a decline of 1 percent in real currency holdings in Trinidad and Tobago. See Barro (1981) for an interpretation of coefficients in equations estimated with first- and higher-order differences of variables in natural log terms.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 55 - point in the change in real broad money demand. A 10 percent increase in real broad money--holding everything else constant--would lead to an increase of somewhat more than 2 percent of a percentage point in the change in real broad money in two quarters. The coefficient of the error correction mechanism has the expected sign and is significant at the 1 percent level, indicating that agents in Trinidad and Tobago adjust their holdings of real broad money in the short- run with the objective of eventually attaining their desired holdings of real broad money. However, the coefficient related to this term is small, suggesting a slow adjustment process towards the steady state. Changes in the real interest rate do not have any effects on changes in the demand for real broad money, and thus were excluded from this estimation of changes in the demand for real broad money.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 56 -

References

Barro, Robert J., "Unanticipated Money Growth and Unemployment in the United States,* in Robert E. Lucas Jr. and Thomas J. Sargent (eds.), Rational Expectations and Econometric Practice (Minneapolis: The University of Minnesota Press, 1981).

Hendry, David F., "PC-GIVE: An Interactive Econometric Modeling System* (Oxford: Institute of Economics and Statistics and Nuffield College of University of Oxford, January 1989).

International Monetary Fund, International Financial Statistics, various issues, (Washington: International Monetary Fund).

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 57 - APPENDIX I

Cointegration, Error Correction Mechanisms and Monev Demand Fimctions The presence of error correction mechanisms in money demand functions implies the existence of cointegration, which describes the steady state or long-run relationships between economic variables. In other words, cointe- gration assures that economic variables do not drift far apart. Cointegra- tion, however, requires that economic variables be stationary, or have a unit root, to ensure that these variables have convergent trends in order to avoid estimating spurious statistical models. In summary, if yt and zt are nonstationary time series integrated to order one, or 1(1), requiring a differencing of one time to make them stationary, co integration exists if there is a 6 in a simple log-linear model described as yt + £zt - pt such that P£ is 1(0). In that case, yt and zt are said to be cointegrated. I/ For determining if time series are stationary, an Augmented Dickey- Fuller test (ADF) can be used. Tinder this test, the null hypothesis is that time series have a unit root, or are integrated to order one, 1(1), with the alternative hypothesis that the time series does not have a unit root, or are 1(0). The ADF test consists in running the following model using OLS for each of the variables

(3)

where Ayt represents the first difference of each of the variables being tested for stationarity, +± a constant, t a time variable, yt.^ the lagged level of the variable, Ayt.i (i - 1, . ..,n) lagged changes of each of the variables being tested, and p^ an error ten. The number of lags in the equation, n, is selected such that |it is white noise. The null hypothesis specifies that p^ - 1. Table 16 shows the results of the ADF tests using quarterly data for real currency in circulation (c), real broad money (m2), real GDP (y), real interest rates (r), and the price level (p). 2/ Other than real interest rates, all the variables are in natural log terms. The tests show that all the variables have a unit root. Moreover, because the tests indicate that the price level has a unit root, inflation also is a stationary variable.

I/ For additional details, see Campbell, et al. (1991), Cuthbertson, et. al. (1991) and Hendry, et al. (1991). 2J Data used to estimate equations (1) and (2) in Section VIII.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 58 - APPENDIX I

The economic framework for the demand functions for real currency and real broad money can be represented by an autoregressive-distributed lag relationship expressed as

(4)

where mt represents the natural log of either currency in circulation or broad money in real terms, pt the natural log of the price level, yt the natural log of real income (real GDP), rt the real interest rate, ot other an error 2 independent variables, /*t term distributed as (0, a ), a0 a constant term, and <*£, fa, 7^, and a± parameters. Lagged variables are indicated by the suffix t-i. This autoregressive distributed lag relationship can be reduced to a more parsimonious relation by eliminating the most insignificant lagged elements and imposing certain assumption. I/ From equation (2) or a simpler relationship, a long-run relation (or solution) can be derived. £/ Following Hendry, et al. (1991), the autoregressive-distributed lag model can be reparameterized to take into account short-run dynamics as

(3) where * is a constant, A^(L) (i - 0, . ..,5) represents a finite polynomial the error in the lag operator L, ecmt.^ - "t-1* * "^-l* correction mechanism defined as the lagged difference between desired currency or broad money holdings, Hfl*' and actual currency or broad money holdings, B^.I, derived from the long-run solution obtained from estimating an autoregressive- distributed lag model, and et an error term. This equation represents in effect a partial adjustment model that allows for the attainment of desired long-run real currency and real broad money holdings through an error correction mechanism. The parameterization (first- or higher-order differences) is arbitrary within lag polynomials, and sign restrictions need not .be imposed a priori. Moreover, insignificant terms can be excluded in the estimation of this equation.

I/ See Boughton (1991) for a discussion on autoregressive-distributed lag relationships and their reduction to parsimonious equations and derived static long-run solutions. 2/ For the coefficients obtained from estimating equation (2) or a simpler relationship, all the diagnostic tests (as described in Appendix 11) must be acceptable. See Cuthbertson, et al. (1992).

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 59 - APPENDIX I

Co integration exists when the error term of the long-run solution does not have a unit root, or is 1(0). To test for cointegration, equation (1) also can be used, although, the distribution of the critical values for this test differs from that to determine the validity of unit root tests. I/ Table 17 shows the co integration tests of the error term of the long-run solutions for real currency and real broad money presented in Section VIII. Both tests show that the t-statistic corresponding to the coefficient of the lagged error term in running equation (1) exceed the 5 percent MacKinnon critical value, £/ and thus would seem to imply that there is no co inte- gration between real currency or real broad money and real income and real interest rates. However, cointegration also can be tested within the framework of a model that includes an error correction mechanism, since cointegration is implied by the existence of an error correction represent- ation of the relevant variables by the Granger Representation Theorem. 3/ Since equations (3) and (4) in Section VIII show a significant error correction representation, it can be concluded that cointegration is present in both equations.

I/ See Banerjee, et al. (1993) for a discussion on cointegration tests and the distribution of critical values for these tests. 2/ See Kremers, et al. (1992) for a description of the cointegration test using MacKinnon critical values. I/ See Campbell, et al. (1991) and Hendry, et al. (1991) for a detailed description and the implications of the Granger Representation Theorem.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution • 60 - APPENDIX I

References

Banerjee, Anindya, Juan Dolado, John V. Galbraith and David F. Hendry. Co integration. Error "Correct ion, and tihe Econometric Analysis of Non- Stationary Data (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1993).

Boughton, Janes, "Long-Run Money Demand in Large Industrial Countries," IMF Staff Papers. Vol. 38, No. 1 (Washington), March 1991.

Campbell, John Y. and Pierre Perron, "Pitfalls and Opportunities: What Macroeconomists Should Know about Unit Roots,* in Olivier Jean Blanchard and Stanley Fisher (eds.), NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991 (Canbridge, MA: MIT Press, 1991).

Cuthbertson, Keith, Stephen 6. Hall and Mark P. Taylor. Applied Econometric Techniques (Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press, 1992).

Hendry, David F. Econometrics: Alchemy or Science (Oxford: Blackwell Publishers, 1993).

Hendry, David F. and Neil R. Ericcson, "An Econometric Analysis of U.K. Money Demand in Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom," American Economic Review. Vol. 81, No. 1 (Nashville), March 1991.

Kremers, Jeroen J.M., Neil R. Ericsson and Juan J. Dolado, "The Power of Co integration Tests," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. Vol. 54, No. 3 (Oxford), August 1992.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution APPENDIX I . 61 -

Table 16. Trinidad and Tobago: Unit Root Test (1967.Q2-1994.Q1)

Augmented Dickey-Fuller I/

Currency (c) -0.97 (4)

Real broad money (M-2) -0.40 (2)

Real GDP (y) -1.18 (1)

Real interest rate (r) -1.05 (3)

Prices (p) -2.36 (4)

Critical value at 5 percent level 2/ -3.45

I/ The numbers in parenthesis indicate the number of lags sufficient for the error-term to be vhite noie. 2/ Obtained from Banerjee, et al. (1993).

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution 62 APPENDIX I

Table 17. Trinidad and Tobago: Tests of Cointegration

Real currency (ecmc) -2.17 Real broad money (ecm2) -2.55 MacKinnon critical value of 5 percent I/ -5.18

I/ Obtained from Banerjee, et al. (1993).

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution . 63 - APPENDIX II

Time Series Properties and Diagnostic Tests In addition to veil known time series properties, PC-GIVE provides diagnostic tests, including for homoscedastic serial xmcorrelated errors (or white noise) and the distribution of residuals. I/ The time series properties are defined as follows: R2 - Squared coefficient of the multiple correlation F - F-statistic a - Standard error of the regression RSS - Residual sum of squares The diagnostic tests are defined as follows: IM1 - Lagrange multiplier for first order residual autocorrelation distributed as F-fonn IM2 - Lagrange multiplier for first through fourth order residual autocorrelation distributed as F-form ARCH - Test for first through fourth order autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity distributed as F-form NORM - CHI square distributed test of the normality of the error term based on the estimation of skewness and kurtosis of the residuals compared to their counterparts under a normal distribution MET - F-form test for heteroscedast£c errors CHI (N/N) - Index of numerical parameter constancy for N forecasts. It is calculated as CHI (N/N), which yields an approximate F- test; values greater than 2 imply poor ex-ante forecasts

I/ See Hendry (1989) for details on these tests.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 64 - APPENDIX II

Reference Hendry, David F., "PC-GIVE: An Interactive Econometric Modeling System" (Oxford: Institute of Economics and Statistics and Nuffield College of University of Oxford, January 1989).

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 65 -

IX. An Assessment of the Si*gtainabilitv of Public Sector Debt 2s/ Total public sector debt in Trinidad and Tobago, Which was kept at around 25 percent of GDP through the mid-1970s, grew rapidly through the late 1980s to reach more than 90 percent of GDP by 1989. The build-tip in both domestic and foreign debt initially reflected large borrowings by public enterprises to finance investment in the oil/gas sector, the petrochemical industry, and a steel plant. Subsequent borrowings following the collapse of petroleum prices in 1981-86 were to finance the governemnt deficit as attempts were made to maintain spending at the past high levels. The resulting increase in the debt burden was aggravated by the drop in real GDP in 1982-93. However, the debt burden has been reduced steadily since 1989 to an estimated 71 percent of GDP by the end of 1994. Nonetheless, the end-1994 level remains high and total debt service obligations totalled over 13 percent of GDP; external debt service represented 30 percent of exports of goods and nonfacto r services. Approximately two-thirds of the debt is external, which was about equally divided between fixed and floating interest rates. As Trinidad and Tobago is a middle-income country, the external debt is almost entirely nonconcessional. The Central Government portion amounts to about three-fourths of the outstanding public debt. This section examines the medium-term fiscal sustainability of the Central Government's debt from three analytical perspectives developed in the literature: a simplified balance sheet approach, a fiscal sustain- ability analysis, and an annuity or debt capacity approach. Each method brings to light a complementary view of the nature of the problem of fiscal and external viability. 1. A balance sheet approach 2/ The balance sheet approach f ocusses on the consolidated accounts of the public sector, which includes both current stocks of public assets and liabilities and the present value of future revenues and expenditures. 2/ The key feature differentiating this framework from conventional fiscal accounts is its forward-looking nature, which provides insights cm the fact that any increase in debt--by definition of the balance sheet—must be matched by an increase in public revenue or current assets or a decrease in expenditures. These adjustments to an increase in debt involve not only current operations but also the present value of future flows. This

I/ The analysis concerns the nonfinancial public sector only. 2/ The approach used in this analysis is based on the formulation developed in Guidotti Pablo E. and Manmohan S. Kumar, "Domestic Public Debt of Externally Indebted Countries," Occasional Paper No.80, International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., June 1991. This approach was developed by Buiter, Willem H., "Measurement of the Public Sector Deficit and Its Implications for Policy Evaluation and Design,* Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, Vol.30 (June 1983), pp. 306-49. £/ Privatization proceeds have not been included in fiscal revenues, contrasting with the GFS methodology, as they are transitory in nature.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution • 66 -

framework complements the use of medium-term scenarios by highlighting the equivalence between the stock and flow dimensions of fiscal policy, thereby providing insights into problems of policy sustainability and evaluation of the medium-term profile.

The framework is based on a basic identity that public assets must equal liabilities, where public sector net worth is the balancing item. To focus the analysis on key policy variables, a public sector balance sheet is confined to one asset--the present value of expected revenues (R)--and three liabilities*-the present value of expected non-interest expenditures and subsidies (G), and the stocks of domestic (D) and external (D*) debts. When net worth (K) is positive, the Government is solvent and is able to meet its obligations--i.e., the present value of expected revenues is equal to or greater than the present value of future expenditures and total public debt.

(1) R-G + D + eD* + K

or

(2) P - D + eD* + K;

where F is the present value of future primary balances and e denotes the exchange rate. The present value of future primary surpluses is estimated on the basis of the surpluses assumed in the. medium-term projections with a constant value of annual surpluses thereafter. The latter is consistent with an assumption of declining primary surpluses in terms of GDP. The nominal value of external debt would also normally need to be adjusted to comparable present value terms, to discount the concessional component of official development assistance (ODA) loans; in the present case the concessional component is marginal and has been ignored. In all eases an international risk-free interest rate is used as a discount factor. I/

Using end-1994 estimates, Trinidad and Tobago's non-financial public sector has a significantly positive net worth as the present value of the future stream of expected primary surpluses exceeds the total stock of debt by about 85 percent (about 60 percent of GDP) (Table 18). 2/ This esti- mate is based on the medium-term policy projections for the consolidated nonfinancial public sector finances in 1995-99 that are included in the staff report for the 1994 Article IV consultation (SM/94/313; 12/30/94); the

I/ No country risk premium is included as the purpose of the exercise is to analyze the level of such risk. 2/ The analysis could be extended to the financial public sector (largely the Central Bank). Following our simplified balance sheet analysis in this case, the NIR of the Central Bank, estimated at about 4.5 percent of GDP at end-1994, would be deducted from foreign debt. On the domestic side, data on the primary balance of Central Bank operations would be included in the total, while required banker's reserves of 20 percent of deposits (about 8 percent of GDP) would be added to domestic debt of the public sector and discounted advances to the private sector would be deducted.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 67 -

primary balance is held constant from the year 2000 onwards. The analysis assumes a discount rate of 8 percent. I/ While the estimated result appears to provide a high degree of comfort, it is quite sensitive to the discount rate used. Net worth would drop to about 60 percent (about 43 percent of GDP) with a discount rate of 9 percent and would be eliminated at a discount rate of 13.5 percent. Thus, from a simplified net-worth point-of-view, the medium-term fiscal position appears relatively sound. 2. A fiscal sugtainabilitv approach While there is no generally accepted view regarding the appropriate level of public sector debt for an economy, the key concern from a fiscal sustainability perspective is the impact of fiscal balances projected under a specific macroeconomic scenario cm the public debt to GDP ratio. Under such an approach, a fiscal plan is sustainable if it results in a declining or stable public debt to GDP ratio. 2J The fiscal sustainability approach is based on the definition of the change in public sector debt as a proportion of GDP (dD) defined as the primary balance as a proportion of GDP (P) plus the net effect on the debt stock (D) of the difference between the interest rate and the growth rate: (3) dD - (r - g)D - P where, r is the rate of interest and g denotes the rate of growth of GDP. i/ While equation (3) does not indicate whether the initial level of debt is the desirable one, it indicates the primary balance necessary to ensure the sustainability of the fiscal plan, given the rate of growth, the average actual rate of interest on government debt and the initial debt-GDP ratio. In the steady state, defined as the fiscal stance that keeps constant the debt to GDP ratio, the primary surplus must equal the initial

I/ Equal to the yield in late November 1994 on ten-year U.S. treasury note. This instrument was the base used for the latest Eurobond borrowing by Trinidad and Tobago in late 1994. 2/ This approach draws on a forward-looking indicator of fiscal policy sustainability developed by Olivier Blanchard, "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators,* Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 79, (Paris: OECD, April 1990). A similar approach applied to external debt was presented by Sweder van Wijnbergen, "External Debt, Inflation, and the Public Sector: Toward Fiscal Policy for Sustainable Growth,* The World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 3, No.3:297-320 (1990). See also calculations for the industrial countries in * Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the Major Industrial Countries," Supplementary Note 2, World Economic Outlook. International Monetary Fund, Washington D.C., October 1990. 2/ The analysis is valid in both nominal and real terms; we will use nominal values.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution • 68 -

debt times the difference between the average interest rate on government debt and the nominal rate of growth (equation 4a).

(4a) P - (r - g)D

The intertemporal budget constraint requires that the present value of primary surpluses, discounted at the rate of (r - g), be equal to or less than the initial debt/GDP ratio (4b).

(4b) D - P/(r - g)

This requirement only comes into play when the interest rate exceeds the growth rate.

For the purposes of our exercise, it is assumed that the interest rate on domestic debt is maintained at 14.5 percent (the estimated 1994 average) through 1997 and then declines to 13 percent by 1999. The interest rate on foreign debt, which averaged about 7.5 percent in 1994, is projected to rise to about 10 percent in 1995 owing to an increase in international US dollar rates and the effects of the Eurobond borrowings; it is assumed to remain at 10 percent through the year 1999.

The results show a continuous decline in the expected evolution of the debt ratio over the period. While the weighted interest rate on the debt is almost double the nominal growth rate of GDP (of about 6 percent) throughout the 1995*99 period, the rising primary surpluses (averaging 8.4 percent of GDP) dominate. However, in 1995, the projected decline in debt is small (2 percentage points of GDP) and the significant declines from 1996 are predicated on a sharp rise in the primary surplus to more than double its 1994 level. In this respect, it should be noted that in the 1993-97 period the actual debt to GDP ratios have fallen or are expected to fall by more than the analysis would project, as a result of the authorities' divestiture program, the proceeds of which are not included in the primary surpluses. The analysis is also sensitive to the interest rate assumption: if external rates were to rise to 11 percent from 1995 onward, the projected decline in debt would drop by about 0.5 percentage points of GDP a year in 1995-96 and by 0.2 percentage points of GDP a year in 1997-99.

3. A debt capacity approach

The viability of an external debt profile can be assessed relative to the country's theoretical maximum debt carrying capacity at any point in time. Under this approach, the maximum debt stock is the capitalized value of the primary surplus (the primary surplus divided by die rate of interest), or that amount which can be serviced indefinitely at a given interest rate. The indefinite stream of interest payments on the debt stock is essentially an annuity at the assumed interest rate. For the sake of simplicity and to concentrate on die external debt carrying capacity, the analysis under this approach will be limited to the Central Government and assume that the domestic debt stock is sustainable. Thus, the domestic

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 69 -

primary surplus (excluding only foreign interest from the overall balance) is the indicator of the resources available to service the external debt. Under this approach, and assuming the actual average interest rate prevailing on the existing stock, the external debt carrying capacity of the Central Government was at its limit in 1993 and was actually surpassed in 1994 at 32.1 percent of GDP (US$1.5 billion) versus a theoretical maximum of 27.2 percent of GDP (US$1.3 billion). I/ For the medium-term outlook the analysis has been done using three alternative assumptions about the external interest rate. The first scenario assumes a rate of 8.0 percent, which would approximately prevail if Trinidad and Tobago were to follow its stated policy intention of favoring external borrowing from multilateral agencies (largely the IDE and the World Bank). The second assumes a roughly unchanged borrowing mix from that prevailing in 1994, which is assumed to cost about 10 percent. Finally, a rate of 12 percent is used to approximate the charge associated with borrowing on commercial terms, as was the case with the Eurobond issue in late 1994, which retained a coupon rate of 11.85 percent. For all years except 1995, and under all three alternative assumptions, the projected carrying capacity of the Central Government exceeds the projected debt to GDP ratio, and by increasing margins, so that by 1999, the projected debt level (15.8 percent of GDP) is only one-third of the capacity under the highest interest rate assumption (43.1 percent of GDP). However, for 1995 the expected debt level exceeds the projected debt carrying capacity for all but the lowest interest rate assumption, again highlighting the role of the privatization proceeds.

4. Conclusions The generally satisfactory assessment of Trinidad and Tobago's medium- term fiscal sustainability is reassuring although it is not without risk. The analysis of the nonfinngT^j^l y^llc sector's net worth at end-1994, which includes as assets only projected revenues based on assumed GDP growth rates and fiscal measures, produces a significantly positive result under the authorities' medium-term fiscal profile. A sharp rise in the inter- national discount rate to about 13.5 percent from the 8 percent assumed would be required before the result would be reversed. However, the result is predicated on a significant fiscal effort yielding a major improvement in the primary balance over the medium-term. The analysis suggests that the medium-term fiscal profile is an appropriate one. The projections of the debt/GDP ratio of the sustainiibilitv approach also yield generally satisfactory results, with the ratio projected to decline continuously throughout the medium-term. This approach highlights the sensitivity of the results to the interest rate assumption and the growth rate of GDP, which under the authorities' medium-term program is expected to be lifted sustainably to higher real levels. However, for the

I/ This is made possible inter alia by the sale of public assets under the Government's ambitious divestiture program, which has provided about 2.1 percent of GDP in resource inflows in both 1993 and 1994.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution 70 -

initial years the margins of improvement are relatively small, with the major improvement occurring in the outlying years. As noted above, this approach underestimates the projected decline in the debt/GDP ratio on account of divestment program. The divestment program is projected to be largely completed in 1997 and contributes about 2 percentage points of GDP a year in resources to the Central Government in 1993-95. The ffirntl^-tv type ap^lvsis of the debt capacity approach provides an interesting glimpse into the ability of the Central Government to carry external debt. This analysis highlights the importance of the type of financing and underscores the appropriateness of the authorities' policy to maximize the use of multilateral financing options and de-emphasize Eurobond financing. The over-capacity debt burden in 1994-95, made possible by the divestment proceeds, again highlights the need to adhere to the medium-term fiscal profile of sharply increasing the primary surplus.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 71 -

References Blanchard, Olivier, "Suggestions for a New Set of Fiscal Indicators,* Department of Economics and Statistics Working Paper No. 79, (Paris: OECD, April 1990). Baiter, Willem H., "Measurement of the Public Sector Deficit and Its Implications for Policy Evaluation and Design," Staff Papers, International Monetary Fund, Vol.30 (June 1983), pp. 306-49. Guidotti Pablo E. and Manmohan S. Kumar, "Domestic Public Debt of Externally Indebted Countries," Occasional Paper Mo.80, IMF, Washington D.C., June 1991. Wijnbergen, Sweder van, "External Debt, Inflation, and the Public Sector; Toward Fiscal Policy for Sustainable Growth,* The World Bank Economic Review, Vol. 3, No.3:297-320 (1990). "Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in the Major Industrial Countries,* Supplementary Note 2, World Economic Outlook. IMF, Washington D.C., October 1990.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution TabU 18. Trinidad and Tobagot Indicators of Non-Financial Public Sector Dabt Susbainability

1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 Eat. Projeotiona (In percent of GDPs tmlaaa otherwise indicated) GDP growth rata (nominal) 0.2 8.3 17.2 8.7 2.3 8.1 13.8 8.3 3.9 3.9 6.8 7.2 Non-financial public sector dabt 89.3 91.3 82.4 79.9 76. 81.3 71.1 64. 57.1 48.9 45.7 38.4 External 39.9 80.3 33.9 36.2 37. 61.6 54.2 48. 44.0 37.2 35.2 29.7 Cantral govarnmant 38. € 33.8 30.4 28.9 27. 34.9 31.8 28. 23.4 20.1 17.9 15.8 Donostlo 29.4 31.0 28.8 23.7 19. 19.7 16.9 13. 13.1 11.8 10.5 8.7 Primary balanoa -0.2 •3.3 7.1 7.2 4. 8.5 3.9 5. 8.7 9.2 9.3 9.2 Cantral Government -2.7 0.8 3.3 4.6 2. 3.9 3.4 5. 7.3 7.4 7.6 7.1 2.0 (Primary domestic balanoa) -4.3 -1.7 1.1 2.3 2.3 2.5 4.4 4.8 5.5 5.2 Ifon-financial public aactor 2.3 2.7 3.8 2.6 2.4 2.5 -1.5 -0. 1.4 1.8 1.6 2.0 Dabt aarvioa obligations External (in millions of U8$) 318.0 384.3 872.8 530.0 529.1 422.4 471.8 411.9 483.7 589.2 386.7 392.2 (at g paroant of OOP) 11.3 13.3 13.3 10.0 9.7 9.0 9.7 8.1 9.0 10.4 6.4 6.0 (gg g parcant of exports and nonf actor aarvioaa) 30.8 33.3 30.4 29.3 34.4 34.8 30.4 22.9 22.6 24.2 14.4 13.3 Domaatio (Cantral govarnaant intaraat only) (aa a paroant of GDP) 1.7 2.2 2.3 2.3 3.3 3.6 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.1 2.0 - 7 2

Dabt aarvioa obligations Not worth (and-1994) Diaoount rata 8 paroant 60.0 9 paroont 43.5 Piaoal auatainabllitT approach (Chango in debt/GDP ratio, in paroant) \J (10 paroant axtarnal intaraat rata) -7.3 -6.3 -2.0 -5.3 -6.0 -7.3 -7.4 (11 parcant) -1.5 -4.9 -5.7 -7,0 -7.2

Domaatio (Cantral govarnaant intaraat only)

Intaraat rato assumption 8 paroant (all nultilataral) 23.5 31.8 55.5 60.6 69.0 64.6 10 parcant (currant mix) 34.3 20.4 26.1 44.4 48.5 55.2 51.7 12 paroant (eonneroial borrowing) 17.0 21.2 37.0 40.4 46.0 43.1

I/ Paroantago changoa fro* this indicator will not naotaaarily bo idantieal with tho projected actual ohango in tha dabt to OOP ratio, owing to othar forma of domestic financing baaidaa dabt, namely privatisation proceeds, which aro significant in tho 1993-97 period. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 73 -

X. Indicators of Competitiveness With the collapse of oil prices since 1982 and the sharp decline in the external prices for petrochemicals that followed, Trinidad and Tobago experienced a deterioration in its terms of trade of 22 percent in 1982-85 and a further 40 percent in 1986-93. At the same time, export earnings fell from about US$2.6 billion in 1981 to US$1.4 billion in 1986 and remained around that level through 1993. In an effort to adjust the economy to the lover level of external income and to stimulate non-oil/gas exports, the authorities started in 1988 to implement measures to strengthen the competi- tiveness of the economy, including a devaluation of the Trinidad and Tobago currency, structural reforms comprising the liberalization of the exchange and trade systems and privatization of public enterprises, wage restraint, and financial policies to help limit the macroeconomic imbalances that had emerged. This section examines the trends of various indicators of competitiveness, mainly related to domestic costs. I/ 1. Overall trends Labor costs--measured by the index of average earnings per man hour-- increased by about 6 percent a year in nominal terms during 1986-93 compared with an average increase of 21 percent a year during 1981-85 (Table 19). Over the period 1986-93 average earnings declined by 32 percent in U.S. dollar terms and by 21 percent in real terms* This decline together with improvements in productivity, contributed importantly to consolidating the gains achieved with the devaluations of the domestic currency in 1985, 1988 and 1993; die Trinidad and Tobago dollar depreciated in real effective terms by about 36 percent during 1986-93. Unit labor costs fell fairly steadily in terms of the U.S. dollar, and by 1993 they were 40 percent below the levels in 1985. The index of rela- tive unit labor cost declined by 67 percent during the same period. Also, producer prices strengthened somewhat during 1986-93, although relative to consumer prices they declined. This pattern, to a large extent, reflected the relatively rapid rise in the prices for services during the period. 2. Export production A number of ratios have been calculated in order to examine the movement in relative price incentives for export production. These ratios express nonpetroleum export prices relative to wages, to indices of home goods prices, and to indices of production costs (with producer prices and nonpetroleum GDP deflator as proxies). These indices reveal that incentives to nonpetroleum exports increased after the devaluations in 1985 and 1988, but the gains tended to dissipate fairly quickly by further declines in the terms of trade and the increases in domestic costs. For instance, after improving by about 17 percent in 1989 following the devaluation of August

I/ While the underlying data have deficiencies, the results provide indicators about recent trends in the competitiveness of the economy.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 74 -

1988, by end-1992 nonpetroleum export prices had fallen by about 26 percent relative to average earnings, by about 27 percent relative to home goods prices, and by about 14 percent relative to producer prices. This perform- ance suggests that the devaluations were insufficient to offset the relative worsening in export prices and were not supported with enough structural measures aimed at reducing production costs and, thereby, help preserve the favorable impact on exports. The improvement in competitiveness following die 1993 devaluation is expected to be more lasting as financial policies were tightened and structural reforms deepened. Preliminary indications are that the profit- ability of nonpetroleum exportable* has increased significantly in 1993-94, and the large foreign direct investment that is taking place suggests that the competitiveness of die economy has improved significantly.

3. Imports ami import prostitution

Indicators of incentives for consumption of imported goods show that import prices rose faster than domestic goods prices during 1986-93. This suggests that in the product categories in which domestic and foreign goods are close substitutes, there was a strong disincentive to consume imports. Moreover, the profitability of import substitution seems to have streng- thened, as both import prices and domestic retail prices appear to have increased at much faster rates than labor costs. Therefore, there appears to have been some factors that inhibited a more intensive drive in efficient import substitution. Since the indicators of profitability are broadly appropriate, then there may have been structural impediments that offset the substantial incentive provided by relative prices. It is in this regard that measures to improve the incentive framework for private investment and simplify further investment regulations--including a revision of the Foreign Investment Act and the licensing and approval procedures for foreign investment--would contribute considerably.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution Tabla 19. Trinidad and Tobago: Indioatora of Compatitivanaaa

(Indiaaa. with 1980-1001

1981 1982 1903 1984 1905 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 Oanaral •cottony Extarnal tatma of trada 97.6 98.1 81.4 00.0 77.9 55.0 51.2 43.9 40.1 57.1 49.0 47.6 46.8 Excluding oil/gaa \J 84.1 130.5 134.1 142.7 145.6 117.6 93.2 90.5 97.2 102.8 87.6 80.8 62.4 Avaraga aarninga (H) TT$ taima 124.4 148.2 177.8 217.8 265.0 278.0 302.6 330.2 349.5 377.4 369.6 413.8 426.4 US$ taraa 124.4 148.2 ' 177.8 217.6 259.6 165.3 201.7 206.3 197.3 213.1 220.0 233.6 175.9 Constant 1980 pricaa 108.8 116.1 120.0 130.7 147.8 144.0 141.5 143.3 136.1 132.4 131.9 129.2 117.3 Unit labor ooata (ULC) TT$ tarma 135.7 155.1 159.9 186.6 206.8 173.7 175.8 185. 186.9 193.3 173.3 165.0 176.9 U8$ taraa 135, 6 155.0 159.9 186.5 204.5 114.5 117.2 116. 105.5 109.2 97.8 102.5 80.4 Produoar prioaa (Pp) IK. 8 133.0 149.6 157.3 164.7 175.5 182.7 193. 210.9 214.2 214.2 215.9 227.3 Agrieultura (PPIa) 115.7 126.0 141.8 110.6 92.3 99.6 96.1 98. 88.8 89.9 96.7 97.5 106.9 Manufacture (PPIm) 118.3 133.1 150.9 159.8 228.3 233.2 263.3 288. 320.1 322.6 336.1 340.4 346.9 Pp/Ratail prioa indax (RPI) 102.2 104.2 101.8 94.3 91.9 90.9 85.5 84. 82.2 75.2 72.5 70.8 68.7 Raal affaotiva axohanga rata (REER) 109.2 122.0 141.5 165.8 137.9 115.3 99.9 90. 98.8 95.9 96.8 105.5 87.6 Ralativa unit labor ooat (RULC) I/ 129.2 143.1 130.1 176.9 189.8 102.9 103.0 101. 89.6 88.4 76.7 79.5 63.2 - 7 5 Export production I/ Px/H 76.5 112.7 97.2 84.6 70.3 73.4 61.2 60.3 70.4 69.6 57.9 52.1 58.0 Px/Ph 90.6 101.2 90.7 86.4 63.6 79.3 60.9 79. 107.4 101.1 81.6 78.0 89.4 Px/Pp 81.5 125. 115.5 117.1 113.0 116.3 101.2 102. 116.7 122.6 105.3 99.8 108.7 Px/np-ODP 79.3 123. 112.8 114.0 109.3 114.6 102.7 103. 123.5 124.7 103.9 92.3 97.6 Conaumption 4/ RPI/Pm 101.3 99. 114.2 129.2 140.5 111.2 107.7 104. 101.5 111.7 114.6 121.0 109.6 RPIf/Pm 100.0 100. 123.1 135.1 147.9 120.4 125.6 126. 136.1 157.0 166.3 177.7 159.8 RPI0/Pm 100.0 93. 101.7 111.1 116.3 09.3 02.2 73. 67.2 72.3 72.2 77.2 69.4 Import aubatitution Pm/ULC 83.3 82. 00.6 69.1 61.2 99. 113.0 110. 135.4 132.2 140.6 155.5 178.7 fm/Pp 96. 96. 06.1 02.0 77.5 99. 100.7 113. 120.0 119.5 120.2 110.0 139.0 Pm/PPIa 97. 101. 90.9 116.6 130.3 174. 199.3 224. 204.0 204.1 266.4 263.3 295.0 Pm/PPIm 95. 96. 05.4 00.7 55.9 173. 74.0 76. 79.0 79.2 76.1 75.3 91.0 RPIf/ULC 100. 99. 119.0 112.1 100.7 144. 170.4 102. 221.3 250.7 296.6 293.1 321.8 RPIo/ULC 100. 95. 90.5 92.1 05.4 107. 111.5 107. 109.2 114.5 120.0 111.7 112.9

Souroaa: IMP fntarnational Financial Bfratiatioa. flnfomation Hotioa Bvataq. and World Economic Outlookt Cantral Bank of Trinidad and Tobago Ouartar 1* * Economic Bulletin! and varioua IMP, Staff Rannrta and Raoant Economic Davalopmanta. I/ Darivad aa non-oil/gat axport prloaa dividad by import pricaa. 2/ Darivad aa tha unit labor ooat (axpraaaad in terma of tha U.S. dollara) davidad by tba unit labor ooat of major trading partnara (indax from 3/ Non-oil/gaa axport prioaa (Px)j indax for homa good prioaa (Ph)j and indax for non-oil/gaa aaotor OOP daflator (np-dDP). I/ Indax of import prioaa (Pm)s indax of food prioaa in tha RPI baakat (RPIf)j and indax 9 clothing prioaa in tha RPI basket (RPI0). ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 76 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 20. Trinidad end Tobago: Gross Domestic Product by Sector of Origin at Constant 1985 Prices

Pral. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

fin m4lliTc of Trinidad iifiH Tofeajco dollars) Oil/gas sector 4,303 4.376 4.407 4,229 3,936 4.348 Crude oil 3,344 3.364 3,253 3,090 2,812 2.967 B»f4T»

I«ss: imputed service charge -475 -355 -381 -399 -409 -416

GDP at cflnift^mt prices 15.895 16.134 16.568 16.288 16.016 16.660 (Percent**, eh „%

Oil/gas sector -0.6 1.7 0.7 -4.0 -6.9 10.5 Crude oil -1.2 0.6 -3.3 -5.0 -9.0 5.5 Refining -13.8 20.7 102.6 51.5 -3.9 1.7 Sarvica and markating 0.9 7.3 9.3 -11.8 3.2 15.3 Petrochemicals 5.3 1.3 5.8 -3.3 -5.6 43.7

Bon-oil/gas sector -1.0 0.4 3.5 -0.7 0.2 1.9 Agriculture 5.8 18.2 2.7 -2.7 -3.3 11.6 Export 4.0 23.2 -31.1 -22.0 66.0 7.7 Domestic 5.8 16.6 -1.3 -1.8 -0.5 2.9 Sugar 6.3 20.5 17.0 -1.9 -14.2 28.5 HanuTar t in 1 iif. 6.1 1.6 4.8 -0.2 -4.1 1.5 Construction -9.3 0.1 11.1 0.9 -6.5 3.4 Distribution, restaurant, and hotel -6.9 -10.2 4.1 -1.3 8.3 0.2 Government -0.2 4.6 -1.9 -2.9 -1.1 .. Financial services -4.6 -0.3 7.7 4.9 2.5 1.6 Othar 3.8 0.2 2.9 -1.5 1.4 2.5 Lass: imputad sarvice charge -6.4 -25.3 7.4 4.9 2.5 1.6 GPP at eonatant nrieas ^2 1*£ 2*2 il*Z IL2 **£

Sources: Caatral Statistical Office; and Fond staff estimates.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 77 - STATISTICAL APPEHDDC

Table 21. Trinidad and Tobago: Gross Domestic Product by Sector of Origin at Currant Market Prices

Pral. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

(In wi i Hens of Trinidad and Tobafto dollars )

Oil/gas sector 4,999 6,369 5,903 5,464 5,638 7,248 Crude oil 3,539 4,541 3,818 3,510 3,549 4,097 Refineries 158 312 472 387 439 476 Service and marketing 838 993 1.033 1,034 1.100 1,377 Petrochemicals 464 523 580 534 551 1,299

Hon-oil/gas sector 14.053 14,808 16,269 17,384 18,896 20,726 Agriculture 450 547 559 586 603 690 Export 33 37 28 21 39 43 Domestic 275 320 327 350 353 370 Sugar 142 190 204 215 210 277 Manufacturing 1,761 1,860 2,062 2,125 2,273 2,461 Construction 1,634 1,731' 1,933 2,030 2,093 2,272 Distribution, restaurant 2,698 2716.1 2954.2 3104.2 3720.3 4058 Hotels and guest bouses 74 95 106 114 138 161 VOVtJCUIMUlL 2,194 2,298 2.500 2,735 2,765 2.866 Financial services 2,073 2,526 2.695 3,171 3,315 3,583 Other services 3,170 3.035 3,460 3,519 3,989 4.636

Less: imputed service charge •680 -564 -668 -699 -725 -889 Pins: VAT 927 1.055 969 1,177 1.305 — m GDP *- •*arlret vricas 18.373 21.539 22.559 23.118 24.987 28.390

Clf* percent of GDP at if^rket TOT!

Oil/gas sector 27.2 29. 26.2 23.6 22.6 25.5 Crude oil 19.3 21. 16.9 15.2 14.2 14.4 Refineries 0.9 1. 2.1 1.7 1.8 1.7 Service and marketing 4.6 4. 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.8 Petrochemicals 2.5 2. 2.6 2.3 2.2 4.6

Bon-oil/gas sector 76.5 68.7 72.1 75.2 75.6 73.0 Agriculture 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.4 Export .2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 Domestic .5 1.5 1. 1.5 1.4 1.3 Sugar .8 0.9 0. 0.9 0.8 1.0 Manufacturing .6 8.6 9. 9.2 9.1 8.7 Construction .9 8.0 8. 8.8 8.4 8.0 Distribution and restaurant 14.7 12.6 13. 13.4 14.9 14.3 Hotels 0.4 0.4 0. 0.5 0.6 0.6 Government 11.9 10.7 11.1 11.8 11.1 10.1 Financial services 11.3 11.7 11.9 13.7 13.3 12.6 Other 17.3 14.1 15.3 15.2 16.0 16.3

Lass: imputed service charge 3.7 -2.6 -3.0 -3.0 -3.3 -3.2 Fins: VAT ~ 4.3 4.7 4.2 4.7 4.6 GPP at iMiriket nrices loo 100 122 loo 100 12S

Sources: Central Statistical Offie*; and Fond staff »sti»»t«s.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 78 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 22. Trinidad and Tobago: Implicit GDP Deflators by Sectors

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

(1985-100)

Oil/gas sector 116.2 145.5 134.0 129.2 143.3 166.7 Crude oil 105.8 135.0 117.4 113.6 126.2 138.1 Refineries 292.1 477.2 356.5 192.5 227.6 242.5 Service and marketing 167.0 184.3 175.5 199.2 205.3 222.9 Petrochemicals 115.0 128.1 134.1 127.6 139.5 228.8 Hon-oil/gas sector 116.5 122.2 129.7 139.5 151.3 162.8 Agri culture 96.2 98.9 98.3 106.0 112.7 115.5 Export 116.9 106.0 116.2 112.8 126.3 127.1 Domestic 94.5 94.4 97.6 106.3 107.9 109.9 Sugar 95.4 106.0 97.2 104.9 119.1 122.2 **-M*'*^g 139.5 145.0 153.4 158.5 176.8 188.6 Construction 130.9 138.5 139.3 145.1 160.0 168.0 Distribution, restaurant, and hotel 98.7 171.5 179.4 191.2 211.6 230.8 Government 82.2 82.3 91.3 102.9 105.2 109.1 Other 100.8 176.4 189.8 209.5 225.6 247.5

Less: imputed service charge 143.2 159.0 165.1 175.0 202.2 217.5

GDP deflator 115.6 133.5 136.2 141.9 156.0 170.4 <4tansT oar cent a Oil/gas sector 20.5 25.3 -8.0 -3.5 10.9 16.4 Grade oil 34.0 27.5 -13.1 -3.2 11.1 9.4 p^r4-P*4»ng 13.8 63.4 -25.3 -46.0 18.2 6.5 Service sad marketing 7.4 10.4 -4.8 13.5 3.0 8.6 Petrochemicals -22.1 11.3 4.7 -4.9 9.3 64.1

Bon-oil/gas sector 3.2 5.0 6.1 7.6 8.4 7.6 Agri ml tvrf -9.4 2.8 -0.6 7.8 6.4 2.5 Export 2.3 -9.3 9.6 -2.9 12.0 0.6 Domestic -11.6 -0.2 3.5 6.8 1.6 1.8 Sugar -7.4 11.2 -8.3 7.9 13.6 2.6 ffUlHTlfftrWri fig 10.3 3.9 5.8 3.3 11.6 6.7 Construction 11.9 s.e 0.6 4.2 10.3 5.0 Distribution, restaurant, sad hotel 39.2 13.0 4.6 6.6 10.7 9.1 Government -10.0 0.1 10.99 12.7 2.2 3.7 Other -3.9 5.8 7.6 10.4 7.7 9.7

Lass: imputed service charge 11.4 11.0 3.9 6.0 15.6 7.5

GDP deflator LI 1L1 2*° 4^2 9*2 2*2

Sources: Central Statistical Office; and Fund staff estimates.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 79 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 4. Trinidad and Tobago: Rational Accounts by Final Expenditure at 1985 Prices

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

fT* Hellions of Trinidad and Tobago dollars)

Domestic expenditure 13.572 13,273 14,536 13,860 13,553 13.541 Consumption 11,727 11,871 12,631 12,407 12,140 11.975 Private sector 3,666 3,673 3,964 3,995 3,745 4.053 Public sector 8,061 8,198 8,607 8,412 8,395 7,922 Gross capital formation 1,845 1.402 1,905 1.453 1,413 1.566 Private sector 1,159 785 1,003 865 928 974 Public sector 686 617 901 588 485 592

Exports of goods and nonfactor services 6,637 7,134 7,115 7,693 7.547 8,364 Inports of goods and nonfactor services 4,018 3,784 4,558 4.276 4.037 4.114

Statistical discrepancies -296 -489 -525 -989 -1.048 -1.131

GDP at market prices 15.895 16.134 16.568 16.288 16.016 16.660

Terms of trade effect 683 945 -428 -374 -677 166

GDP adjusted for terms of trade 16.578 17.080 16.139 15.913 15.338 16.826

CPercentaite charute}

Domestic expenditure 0.1 -2.2 9.5 -4. -2.2 -0.1 Consumption -3.9 1.2 6.4 -1. -2.1 -1.4 Private sector 10.5 0.2 7.9 0. -6.3 8.2 Public sector -7.1 1.7 5.7 -3. -0.2 -5.6 Gross capital formation 18.4 -24.0 35.9 -23. -2.7 10.8 Private sector 15.5 -32.3 27.9 -13. 7.2 5.0 Public sector 23.6 -10.0 46.0 -34. -17.4 22.0

Exports of goods and nonfactor sarvices 8.5 7.5 -0.3 8.1 -1.9 10.8 Imports of goods and nonfactor sarvices 11.8 -5.8 20.4 -6.2 -5.6 1.9

GPP at ***Tlcet prices 12-2 1*5 2*2 iL2 -1*2 i*£ flpp adjusted for tattffff of trade 1*0 i*i ^5 :**£ 1*2

Sources: Central Statistical Office; and Fund staff estimates.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 80 - JSTATTJSTTff AT. AyffF.piLi I if

Table 24. Trinidad and Tobago: National Accounts by Final Expenditure at Current Market Prices

Frel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Cln T«* ** i •« c»nff of Trinidad and Tob*ffo doll**"*?

Domestic expenditure 16,954 17.967 20,834 20,775 22,851 25,417 Consumption I/ 13,909 15,253 17,206 17,926 19,575 21,605 Private sector 4,890 5,182 6,519 7,485 8,030 10,619 Public sector 9,019 1,007 10.687 10.441 11,545 10,986 Gross capital formation 3,045 2,713 3.628 2,849 3.276 3,812 Private sector 2,249 1,676 2,208 1,596 2,105 1,486 Public sector 796 1,037 1.420 1.253 1,171 2,345 Exports of goods and nonfactor services 7,789 9,729 9,231 9.068 9,889 11,439 iBports of goods and nonfactor services 6,370 6,157 7,506 6,725 7,753 8,466

GQP »»-

Ret factor payments -1,597 -1,678 -1,867 -1,888 -1.704 -2.249 Ret transfers -105 -108 -58 -68 -35 -112

GUP «t market prices 16.672 19.754 20.633 21.162 23.247 26.029 (As percent of GDP)

Domestic expenditure 92.3 83.4 92.4 89.9 91.5 89.5 Consumption 75.7 70.8 76.3 77.5 78.3 76.1 Private sector 26. 24.1 28.9 32.4 32.1 37.4 Public sector 49. 46.8 47.4 45.2 46.2 38.7 Gross capital formation 16. 12.6 16.1 12.3 13.1 13.5 Private sector 12. 7.8 9.8 6.9 8.4 5.2 Public sector 4. 4.8 6.3 5.4 4.7 8.3

Experts of goods and nonfactor services 42.4 45.2 40.9 39.2 39.6 40.3 Imports of goods and nonfactor services 34.7 28.6 33.3 29.1 31.0 29.8

GDP et market prices 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Ret factor payments -8.7 -7.8 -8.3 -8.2 -6.8 -7.9 Ret transfers -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.4 GRP at market prices 2L2 £LZ 2L1 91.5 93.1 2LZ

Sources: Central Statiscal Office; and Fund staff estimates. I/ Includes statistical discrepancies.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 81 - STATISTICAL APPEHDDC

Table 25. Trinidad and Tobago: Savings and Investment at Currant Market Prieas

Pral. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

CIn "rllions of Trinidad and Tobago dollars)

Gross domestic savings 4.464 6.286 5.353 5.192 5.412 6.780 Private sector 3,738 4,801 2,887 3,888 3,369 4.557 Petroleum 1.015 1,301 1,253 1,378 1.422 1,894 Honpetroleum 2,723 3,500 1,634 2,510 1,946 2,663 Public sector 726 1,485 2,466 1,304 2.043 2.223

Hat factor payments -1.786 -1,678 -1,867 -1.888 -1.704 -2,249 Hat transfers -105 -108 -58 -68 -35 -112

Gross national savings 2.573 4.351 3.431 3.236 3.672 4.420 Private sector 2,665 3,640 1,733 2,533 2,278 3.058 Petroleum 735 1,486 743 855 950 1,286 HonpetLuleun 1,930 2,154 991 1,677 1,328 1,772 Public sector -92 710 1,698 703 1,394 1,362

Gross national investment 3.045 2.713 3.628 2.849 3.276 3.812 Private sector 2,249 1,676 1,881 1,596 2.105 1.468 Petroleum 514 474 993 1,087 1,299 852 ponpetroleum 1,734 1,202 889 509 806 616 Public sector 796 1,037 1,747 1,253 1,171 2,345

Invesment-savings gsp 472 -1.637 197 ^387 ^396 -608

dp percept of GPP at iMrlcet prices)

Gross domestic savings 24*3 21^ 23*7 22*s 2L2 23*9 Private sector 20.3 22.3 12.8 16.8 13.5 16.0 PetroleuB 5.5 6.0 5.6 6.0 5.7 6. Honpetroleum 14.8 16.2 7.2 10.9 7.8 9. Public sector 3.9 6.9 10.9 5.6 8.2 7.

Met factor payments -9.7 -7.8 -8.3 -8.2 -6.8 -7. let transfers -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 -0.1 -0.

Cross national savi^in* 12*2 2SL2 11*2 li*£ 14*7 IS*! Private sector 14.4 16.9 7.7 11.0 9.1 10.7 Petroleum 4.0 6.9 3.3 3.7 3.8 4.5 loopetroleum 10.4 10.0 4.4 7.3 5.3 6.2 Public sector -0.5 3.3 7.5 3.0 5.6 4.8 Gross domestic savings 16*6 12*£ 16*1 12,3 12*1 13*4 Private sector 12.2 7.8 8.3 6.9 8.4 5.2 Petroleum 2.8 2.2 4.4 4.7 5.2 3.0 Honpetroleum 9.4 5.6 3.9 2.2 3.2 2.2 Public sector 4.3 4.8 7.7 5.4 4.7 8.3

Investment-savinns »ap 2*2 zLl 0*9 -1.7 ^i 12*1

Sources: Central Statistical Office; and Fund staff estis»tes.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 82 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 26. Trinidad and Tobago: Production and Utilization of Crude Oil and Refined Products tin thousands of barrels)

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Crude oil **»H vt*fcnv»*i sas liouid Production 48,929 55,186 53,861 56,871 52.599 55,414 Crude oil 48,929 55,186 53,085 53,439 49,039 51,633 AMOCO 23,957 27,406 25,527 23.500 20,116 21,353 Other 24,972 27,780 27,558 29.939 28,923 30,280 Haturml gas liquid 776 3,432 3,560 3,781 Hatural gasoline — — 279 1,069 1,090 1,126 Other — — 497 2,363 2,470 2,655 Imports-crude oil 1,021— 6.415— 15,229 16.843 13,797 14,300 Under Processing Arrangement 1,021 6.415 14,797 16,843 10,110 9,300 Other 432 3,687 5,000 Exports 27,20—0 30.56—9 26,245 23,38—0 20,504 25,008 Crude oil 27,200 30.569 26,245 23,380 20,504 21.353 •atural gas liquid 3.655 Refinery input I/ 23,13—3 35,16—1 41,43—6 42,27—7 38.50—0 38.000 Supply to stocks -383 -978 271 1,082 719 -1.237 (Opening stocks) 3.263 3.143 2,165 2,436 3.518 4.237 Re£**»od products Refinery output 26,953 32,239 39,546 39,834 36.323 36,818 LPG 708 767 479 786 796 625 Hogas 4,731 6.779 6,076 5,740 6.388 7.697 Avgas 103 33 33 25 10 52 Av turbine/kerosene 2,777 3.271 4,304 2,913 2.916 4,433 Gas/diesel oil 4,289 4,977 5,672 6,792 6.218 7,034 Fuel oil 14,423 16,349 21.492 22,952 19.656 17,667 Lubes/greases 251 448 239 586 Bituflten 24—6 13—8 183 95 125 198 Petrochemicals 136 79 13 -11 2 -1 n»>*^4 «>*t^ -357 -224 1.960 1,338 1.092 -371

Imports 1,008 1,013 1.385 7.150 2,009 1.752

Exports 23.196 27,504 33,421 40,065 29,081 31.196 Under Processing Arrangement 2.496 6.717 11,344 16,273 1,106 639 Other 20.700 20,787 22,077 23,792 27,975 30.557

Dean • tic consumption - 5,072 5,012 5.465 5,219 5,051 5.157 LPG 544 557 570 582 572 587 Mogas 3,076 2,973 3.046 2,862 2,627 2,466 Avgas 3 3 5 5 3 5 Av turbine 257 144 345 532 459 444 Kerosene 61 56 56 56 50 55 Gas oil 962 1,107 1.244 1,002 1,187 1,416 Diesel oil 4 11 12 8 Fuel oil 41 42 49 45 40 38 Labas/gxsases 83 89 96 93 83 91 Bitumen 41 29 42 34 30 55 Supply to stocks 130 862 1.009 -506 -436 -143 (Opening stocks) 4,288 3,708 4.570 6,199 5,579 5,143

Discrepancies, losses (-) 27 437 126 -1.036 -2,205 -4,636 -2.360 Memorandum items Installed rafinaxy capacity (in thousands of barrels pax day) . 305.0 305.0 305.0 245.0 245.0 245.0 Capacity utilisation (in percent) 24.2 31.6 37.2 47.1 43.1 42.5 Production of fuel oils (in percent of total refined products) 53.5 50.7 54.3 57.6 54.1 48.0 Motor gasolines 17.6 21.0 15.4 14.4 17.6 20.9 Gas/diesel oil 15.9 15.4 14.3 17.1 17.1 19.1 Meters drilled (in thousands) 136.2 153.5 149.3 77.2 69.1

Sources: Ministry of Energy; Central Statistical Office; and Fund staff estimates. i/ Supply (production pins imports) minus use (exports plus changes in stock). 2/ Product use (supply to stock plus exports pins domestic consumption) minus product supply (rafinaxy output pins imports).

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 83 - STATISTICAL APPEHDIX

Table 27. Trinidad mad Tobago: Retail Price Index

Frel. Est. Heights I/ 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

(September 1982 - 100)

A. Period Average

Overall index 1.000.0 201.2 223.4 232.0 247.0 273.7 296.4 Food, drink and tobacco 255.0 251.8 292.5 310.1 339.8 403.0 445.7 Boosing and household supplies 359.0 169.7 177.1 178.8 181.4 210.0 223.2 Clothing and footwear 104.0 136.9 148.4 149.6 148.9 158.8 163.6 Transportation 152.0 210.3 219.3 220.7 241.4 259.0 279.7 Other services 130.0 174.1 182.9 191.9 199.6 221.0 241.9

B. *frM* «f Pofiod

Overall index 210.2 230.2 235.6 255.6 290.0 307.1 Food, drink and tobacco 273.0 307.3 318.8 360.7 424.7 470.0 Boosing and household sopplie 170.2 178.1 178.9 180.3 209.0 221.0 Clothing and footwear 136.8 149.7 149.4 148.3 160.8 165.0 Transportation 210.8 220.3 219.8 244.9 269.8 279.8 Other services 175.3 185.4 193.2 200.6 226.8 239.2

fAnnual. iMFGentaae chances i

A. Peript^AverjMtt

Overall index 11.4 U.O 3.8 6.5 10.8 8.3 Food, drink and tobacco 20.0 16.2 6.0 9.6 18.6 10.6 Boosing and household supplies 2.6 4.4 1.0 1.4 15.7 6.3 (nothing and footwear 2.1 8.4 0.8 -0.5 6.6 3.0 Transportation 5.2 4.3 0.6 9.4 7.3 8.0 Other services 7.5 5.0 4.9 4.0 10.7 9.5

B. End of Period

Overall index 9.3 9.5 2.3 8.5 13.5 5.9 Food, drink and tobacco 19.4 12.6 3.7 13.1 17.7 10.7 Boosing and household supplies 1.8 4.6 0.4 0.8 15.9 5.7 Clot.hlTH and footwear 0.4 9.4 -0.2 -0.7 8.4 2.6 Transportation 2.5 4.5 -0.2 11.4 10.2 3.7 Other services 6.1 5.8 4.2 3.9 13.0 5.5

Sources: Central Statistical Office; and Fond staff estiemtes.

i/ Heights were revised in Septenber 1993 based on 1988 Household Budgetary Survey.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 84 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 28. Trinidad and Tobago: Zndaz of Producer Prices by Industry

Pr el. Jan. — June Weights 1969 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

(Pariod averages)

Producer pries* 1.000.0 279.4 283.3 283.9 286.1 301.3 316.3 Food processing 191.0 281.0 296.0 301.3 303.8 333.0 361.8 Drink and tobacco 121.0 328.5 328.0 328.5 334.5 356.6 385.4 Cham, and nonaatallic product* 148.0 303.5 311.0 311.1 312.0 336.6 368.6 Assesfely type and ralatad ind. 257.0 268.1 268.5 263.0 264.8 269.8 278.2 Otbar 283.0 255.0 254.7 257.8 259.2 266.5 305.5

(Annual precentage changes)

Producer prices 8.9 1.4 0.2 0.8 5.3 8.9 i/ Food processing 11.5 5.3 1.8 0.8 9.6 16.6 Drink and tobacco 1.5 -0.2 0.2 1.8 6.6 12.0 OMB. and nonMtallic products 6.7 2.5 — 0.3 7.9 9.5 Asseafcly type and ralatad ind. 7.3 0.1 -2.0 0.7 1.9 5.6 Othar 14.4 -0.1 1.2 0.5 2.8 5.0

Soorcas: Cantral Statistical Office; and Fond staff astiMtas.

i/ Over corresponding pariod 1993.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 85 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 29. Trinidad and Tobago: Domestic Prices of Selected Refined Petrolew Products

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

(In Trinidad "pd Tobnj?o dollar? ner liter)

Saner Botor gasoline Wholesale 1.22 1.22 1.22 1.79 1.82 2.19 Retail 1.30 1.50 1.50 1.94 1.96 2.35

ReR*Om T inntor gasoline Wholesale 1.18 1.18 1.18 1.74 1.77 2.11 Retail 1.25 1.44 1.44 1.86 1.88 2.24

Gas oil Wholesale 0.72 0.82 0.82 0.90 0.96 1.15 Retail 0.78 0.90 0.90 0.98 1.05 1.25

Diesel oil 0.73 0.84 0.84 0.85 0.92

Kerosene Wholesale 0.71 0.71 0.71 0.82 0.97 1.07 Retail 0.77 0.89 0.89 0.91 1.05 1.15

(In Trinidad end TotMiRo dollar? ner _nowvi )

Liquified gas Wholesale 0.51 0.51 0.51 0.53 0.66 0.66 Retail 0.75 0.8* 0.86 0.88 1.00 1.00

Sources: Rational Potrolmsa Marketing Company; Central Statistical Office; and Fund staff estimates.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 86 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 30. Trinidad and Tobago: Labor Force and Employment

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

fin thousands of persons)

Population JL/ 1,213.3 1,227.4 1,237.4 1,248.2 1,252.1 1.257.1 Of which: 15 years and over 833.0 835.7 837.2 841.0 847.9 851.3

Labor force 469.1 467.7 492.2 505.2 504.6 504.9 Male 311.7 308.4 315.1 318.0 318.1 318.0 Female 157.4 159.3 177.1 187.2 186.5 186.9

Employed 365.7 374.1 401.0 406.0 404.6 405.3 Male 246.9 253.4 265.4 263.7 261.8 262.8 Female 118.8 120.7 135.6 142.3 142.8 142.5

Unemployed 103.4 93^6 93*2 32*2 99^9 99,6 Seeking work 69.7 63.2 64.5 68.7 69.6 69.2 Other unemployed 33.8 30.4 26.7 30.5 30.3 30.4

(As percent of total labor force)

Unemployed 2L£ 20.0 18^5 22*i lit* 1L2 Seeking work 14.9 13.5 13.1 13.6 13.8 13.7 Other unemployed 7.2 6.5 5.4 6.0 6.0 6.0

Agriculture and fishing

*»_ •f-'fi jm» ••• «1 • g*{ \\^«~ • finm \

Total 365.7 374.1 401.0 405.7 404.6 405.3 Agriculture and fishing 50.6 46.1 47.0 46.8 45.8 46.3 Mining and menufactttring 53.8 54.1 61.4 57.8 55.4 56.6 r**nTtTHfrtiffn (including utilities) 45.3 47.5 53.8 51.6 51.4 51.5 Commerce 61.3 62.6 67.4 69.4 71.1 70.2 Transport and coanunieation 27.0 27.3 27.3 29.4 30.0 29.7 Other services y 127.7 136.3 144.1 150.7 150.9 150.9 (As percentage of employed)

Agriculture and fishing 13.8 12.3 11.7 11.5 11.3 11.4 Mining and manufacturing 14.7 14.5 15.3 14.2 13.7 13.9 CMn«+.f^«Lfan (•fTtr»1^M^Ttg utilities) 12.4 12.7 13.4 12.7 12.7 12.7 Commerce 16.8 16.8 16.8 17.1 17.6 17.3 Transport and communication 7.4 7.3 6.8 7.2 7.4 7.3 Other services 34.9 36.4 35.9 37.1 37.3 37.2

Sources: Central Statistical Office; and Fund staff estimates.

I/ Midyear estimates. 2/ Includes persons with unstated activity.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 87 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Tabl* 31. Trinidad and Tobago: Eaployaant in tha Public Entarprisas (Member of employees)

Pral. Sapt. 1909 1990 1991 1992 1993 199*4

Intal employees 41.957 43.912 43.645 42.607 38.766 37.386

National Insurance Board 225 !/ 7J5 897 2/ 904 885 HI

Public uitilities 12.997 12.403 11.378 10.969 « 249 8.046 ff^V^ 2.963 2. 923 2.865 2.861 2.808 2.800 tOSA 5.052 4.817 4,505 4.222 3.227 3.050 RSC 3,082 3.068 2,367 2.278 1.500 1.482 Port Authority 1.900 1.595 1.641 1.608 714 714

International Commiestions 21.914 25.047 25.231 24.602 22.664 21.514 Caroni (1975) Ltd. 3/ 9.361 9.493 9.132 9.000 ft, 828 8,396 TBinCC 4/ 5.341 4.984 5,192 5.079 Bstioaal Potgoloo* Mszkatiag Co. Ltd. 53« 634 562 553 59—8 56—8 nXRCBEC 4/ 1.710 1.640 1,694 1.646 — . Bstioaal Gas Co. Ltd. 214 271 903 320 336 92—4 ISTXfll 9 9 5 5 5 5 Bstioaal barer Corp. 55 29 31 -3/ Bationsl. Broadcasting Sarvicos 118 105 103 102 17—2 ..—. Trinidad sad Tobago Talovision Co. Ltd. 197 171 171 170 150 Trinidad sad Tobago Printing and — Packaging Co. Ltd. 6/ 261 303 263 «. Loka Asphalt Ltd. 240 201 201 206 20—2 24—7 SHXA 2.522 2.671 2.729 2,805 2.945 2,290 7/ International Commiestions Batsjozk Liaitod ~ 203 Loka Asphalt Ltd. 1<8 15—4 25—1 25—1 22—5 200 Batioaal Floor Mills Ltd. 430 509 509- 509 988 981 tcasa! BotsitiOB Co. Ltd. f/ 6 5 5 5 Trinidad and Tobago Ova* Co. Ltd. £/ 40 26 30 — — Trinidad and Tobago Mathanol Co. Ltd. 21—8 231 264 242 25—6 27—0 Trinidad and Tobago Forost fcodaots Co. Ltd. 140 161 271 252 277 297 Bstioaal Poultry Co. Ltd. f/ 44 43 44 98 90 Farxall Iowa C1973) Ltd. y 97 99 52 — Trinidad and Tobago Solid tiacta — — — Management Co. Ltd. 108 209 224 92 229 2S9 Trinidad and Tobago Import Cradit Management Co. Ltd. 7 9 9 9 20 n •ational Ooarrias Co. Ltd. 49 49 62 62 62 61 Bon-Parail Istatas I/ IS 18 28 28 Bat 1 nail Pxait Pvocaasoss Ltd. 4/ 11 21 25 9 — — Batianal Faad mils Ltd. B6 49 44 45 4—5 4—2 Shipping e^Ty*t*4n* of Trlitlfirt and Tobago Ltd. 78 82 79 78 69 • «. Batianal Balicoptar Sozvioos Ltd. 42 42 46 47 49 and Tobago Ltd. •- 5,904 I/ —• 5.475 Trinidad and Tobago Fraa Isaot Co. Ltd. 2 —2 5 —4 4 4 I UUP 995 2.294 2.294 1.294 2.220 — Bstioaal barer Corp. < «^ &J67 U2* UB 6^2f8 £,281 Pt. Lisas Industrial Port Development Co. Ltd. 212 259 277 282 282 295 TrinHaii Bitrogan Co. Ltd. 9 9 3 9 3 3 Bctioaal Fisbariaa Co. Ltd. 1S6 42 52 32 32 32 Fartilisars of Trinidad sad Tobago Ltd. 6/ 379 999 9S2 979 -- Pint Citissas Bank "^ — . 1.271 1.21—2 Trinidad sad Tobago Ir^^rrnil Commissions Co. Ltd. 536 492 -I/ Talacoaasaiostioas Socvicoa of Trinidad — — — sad TiiaiB Ltd. Cfozaarly TZLDO) 2.943 2.290 2.921 2.9S4 2.896 2.890 BstioBsl Msiatoasaca ^****»j*^ ^^i Sacnrity Co. Ltd. 2.191 1.803 2.072 2.020 2.956 2.956 rirlalism Botal Davalopaant Co. Ltd. f/ 5 5 5 5 5 Trim it art sad Tobago Hortgaga — Finaaea Co. Ltd. 29 37 40 40 45 45 Agricultural ParrilopasBt Bank 202 202 217 225 242 226 Morkars* Bank (19t9) Ltd. ^O/ 158 200 296 293 *^**~t^fffrf^ Coapany of '^^Tii**^** — — sad Tobafo Ltd. 97 95 35 99 96 96

Sourcai: Ministry of Finsnca; Cantral Poiioaaal Qffica; sad Faad staff astiaatas.

i/ farrlada* paxsaaa hirad to provida ls«va zoUaf. y lacladot parsons hirad to avovida loovo ralial. bat ozclados parsons hirad for spaeisl projacts. I/ Inrladot Oraasa Cxtrr* Bstioaol Co. *orkars. */ laoozpocatad in *""*n»,TF in 1993. II Incorporated in Bational Cos Co. Ltd. in 1992. i/ Bi^aBtod. 2/ Bapraaants oaployaant at iiigiMt. 1994 sad inclanot 401 Tff*^r*^1 staff. i/ CorranUy aot in operation. 2/ Incorporatad in Trinidad sad Tobago Talaphona Co. Ltd., in 1991. 10/ Incorporated in First Cit4sans Bank. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 88 - STATISTICAL APPEHDDC

Table 32. Trinidad and Tobago: Indices of Production, Earnings, Employment, and Costs in Manufacturing JL/

(Period Average: 1977 - 100)

Prel. QZ. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

All industry Production 129.6 132.7 148.1 162.3 151.8 170.7 Weekly earnings 397.9 421.2 421.5 433.8 440.6 427.4 Productivity pax man/hour 196.5 205.1 221.8 247.4 237.8 265.9 Employment 66.5 64.6 65.2 64.4 62.8 63.1 Boors worked 66.0 64.7 67.7 65.6 63.8 64.2 Earnings par awn/hour 602.9 651.0 631.0 670.2 690.6 665.4 Unit labor cost 306.8 317.4 284.5 270.9 290.4 250.4 iiajiM^^^fr-gMM «%|> (axcludi*tft Ail and sugar) Production 205.0 210.3 240.1 262.0 245.0 273.3 Weakly earnings 400.0 412.7 410.4 421.8 431.1 419.3 Productivity per awn/hour 292.1 299.6 335.5 375.4 364.6 410.4 Employment 70.0 70.2 71.5 70.3 68.0 67.0 Boors worked 70.2 70.2 72.8 69.8 67.2 66.6 Earning* par Ban/hour 569.8 587.9 574.0 615.3 641.5 629.6 Unit labor cost 195.1 196.2 171.1 163.9 175.9 153.4

Oil refiner Production 33.1 32.9 30.0 34.5 32.4 32.9 Weakly earnings 395.1 479.1 493.6 501.0 501.0 501.0 Productivity par Ban/boor 57.5 64.8 53.4 61.0 57.3 58.1 fiaployment 56.9 47.6 "46.7 47.0 47.0 47.0 Boors worked 57.9 50.9 56.5 56.6 56.6 56.6 Earnings par sun/boor 690.2 941.3 873.6 885.1 885.1 885.1 Unit labor coat 1,200.3 1.452.6 1,636.0 1.451.0 1,766.7 1,523.4

S<*IC*T rofiftiTMt Production 34.0 38.8 33.1 38.0 34.8 88.5 Weakly earnings 385.1 381.5 375.7 405.7 404.4 351.5 Productivity par awn/boor 65.8 69.1 60.4 67.1 62.3 140.0 Employment 60.4 62.7 60.8 61.8 61.9 45.6 Boors worked 48.5 51.7 50.2 51.4 51.5 63.2 Earnings par sun/boor 794.0 737.9 748.4 789.3 785.2 556.2 Unit labor cost 1,206.7 1,067.1 1,239.1 1,176.3 1,260.4 397.3

Sources: Central Statistical Office; and Fond staff estimates,

i/ All employees.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 89 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 33. Trinidad and Tobago: Index of MiBiaun Hag* Rates for Production and Ancillary Workers by Industry (November 1976 - 100)

PreJL. May Weights 1989 1990 1991 1992 199:5 1994

Tfti l i^^ustrr 10.000 446.6 450.9 463.8 488.8 501.11 506.3 Manufacture of foodstuff 415 654.7 655.2 668.9 675.5 658.3L 678.4 Manufacture of textiles 420 524.6 532.5 532.5 523.6 491.9 492.1 Other •>**>MT* *^-*itri Tig 548 554.5 564.2 561.9 556.1 568.9 569.2 Assembly type industries 557 560.8 563.3 558.0 511.1 522.8 527.4 Electricity and water 415 386.0 398.1 453.6 475.2 497.7 503.4 Building and construction 496 422.1 4U.6 419.0 424.4 419.8 452.8 Distribution 1,298 557.1 567.9 570.4 615.0 618.8 625.1 Service* 822 489.0 487.6 452.0 457.4 469.0 472.7 Transport and cosounication 425 434.1 436.0 455.5 499.1 500.1 499.4 Govemnent 3,121 324.2 324.2 356.8 408.1 438.6 438.6 Petroleun industries 1.133 445.3 457.2 472.2 496.6 514.8 513.8 Sugar refining 350 480.2 480.2 480.2 480.2 489. 10) 491.9

Sources: Central Statistical Office; and Fund staff estimates.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 90 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Tabla 34. Trinidad and Tobago: Overall Honfinaneial Public Sector Operations

Pral. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

(Tr* Billions of Trinidad ^nd Tobago dollars)

Tottftl rayjm.ua mrtft «v»mt.s 5.437.7 6.600.6 7.799.5 7.049.5 7.800.3 8.601.8 Currant ravanua 5,227.6 6,249.3 7.731.6 6,983.1 7.753.2 8.487.6 Cantral Govaroant 4.837.4 5.537.9 6.753.7 6,083.5 6.755.2 7.568.4 Curant surplus of BOHFP 390.2 711.4 977.9 899.6 998.0 919.2 Capital ravanua and grants 210.1 351.3 67.9 66.4 47.1 114.2

TO*Ml -L-Tir-M-ijrliitr"*** 8&d Bat lading 6.116.0 6.575.9 7.780.7 7.532.9 7.530.1 9.470.6 Currant azpanditura 5.319.8 5,538.9 6.033.9 6.280.0 6.359.3 7.126.1 Cantral Govaroant 5,319.8 5.538.9 6.033.9 6.280.0 6.359.3 7.126.1 Capital axpanditur* 796.2 1.037.0 1.746.8 1,252.9 1,170.8 2.344.5 Cantral Govaanant 362.4 344.8 769.1 449.6 358.0 585.4 Bast of nonlinaneial public aaetor 433.8 692.2 977.7 803.3 812.8 1.759.1

Current balance -92.2 710.4 1.697.7 703.1 1.393.9 1.361.5

Qy»ra3J haiMiM -678.3 2**Z 18,8 -483.4 270.2 -868.8

Financing Cnat) 678.3 22±2 •18.8 483.4 -270.2 868.8 Extamal (not) -496.8 -967.3 -955.4 -541.9 -269.7 119.3 Cantral Govamant -237.2 -391.0 -475.2 -235.9 -135.4 -208.3 RGKFP -259.7 -576.3 -480.3 -306.0 -134.3 327.6 Domestic 1,175.2 942.8 936.6 1.025.4 -1.0 749.5 Cantral Govazmant 1,058.5 670.4 523.6 888.5 93.8 281.5 •ORFP 116.7 272.4 413.1 136.9 -94.8 468.0

(TT> t^rc^nt of CDP)

Currant balanea -0.5 3.3 7.5 3.0 5.6 4.8

Chrarall balanea -3.7 0.1 0.1 -2.1 1.1 -3.1 Extamal (nat) -2.7 -4.5 -4.2 -2.3 -1.1 0.4 Cantral Govarnvant -1.3 -1.8 -2.1 -1.0 -0.5 -0.7 BOHFP -1.4 -2.7 -2.1 -1.3 -0.5 1.2 DOMStiC 6.4 4.4 4.2 4.4 2.6 Cantral GorarnMnt 5.8 3.1 2.3 3.8 0.4 1.0 UWIf 0.6 1.3 1,8 0.6 -0.44 1.6

Sonrcas: Ministry of Financa; and Fund staff astimatas.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 91 - STATISTICAL APPEHDIX

Table 35. Trinidad and Tobago: Suonary of Cantral Govaz at Budgetary Operations I/

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

(Tr> •HTMntiic pf Trinidad wd Tobago dollars)

Total raven*1* **& grants 4.860.9 5.604.5 6.754.6 6.085.1 6.759.4 7.638.3 Current 4,837.4 5.537.9 6,753.7 6,083.5 6,755.2 7,568.4 Oil 1.715.2 2,038.4 2,504.8 1,458.6 1,289.4 1,324.4 Ion-oil 3,122.2 3,499.5 4,248.9 4,624.9 5,465.8 6,244.0 Capital and grant* 23.5 66.6 0.9 1.6 4.2 69.9

Expenditures 5.682.2 5.883.7 6.803.0 6.729.6 6.717.3 7.711.5 Currant 5,319.8 5,538.9 6,033.9 6,280.0 6,359.3 7,126.1 Wages and salaries 2/ 1,987.2 1,982.8 2,293.2 2,501.7 2.561.4 2,789.8 Other goods and services 447.9 588.2 574.5 465.3 516.4 713.1 Interest payments 939.7 997.0 1,082.0 1,235.9 1,437.1 1,597.7 Transfer and subsidies 1.945.0 1.970.9 2,084.2 2,077.1 1,844.4 2,025.5 Capital expenditure and net lending 3/ 362.4 344.8 769.1 449.6 358.0 585.4

Current account b*lfmce -482.4 •1.0 719.8 -196.5 395.9 442.3

Overallbelance -821.3 -279.2 -48.4 -644.5 42JL '73.2

Foreign financing -237,1 -391.0 -475.2 -235.9 -135.4 -208.3 Domestic *4«»m»H^g 1,058.5 670.4 523.6 888.5 93.8 281.5 Financial system 442.9 39.2 -56.1 571.3 -753.4 -521.5 Other 47 615.6 631.2 579.7 317.2 847.2 803.0

tin percent of GDP at market prices) Total revenue and arants 2L£ 26,0 22*9 2L2 2LJL 26^9 Oil 9.3 9.5 u.i 6.3 5.2 4.7 Ion-oil 17.2 16.5 18.8 20.0 21.9 22.2

TA^A! Aw^Mtfil frn^A 2S+i 2L1 30.2 22*1 2i,9 27,2 Current 29.0 25.7 26.7 27.2 25.5 25.1 Capital expenditure and net lending 2.0 1.6 3.4 1.9 1.4 2.1

Current balance -2.6 3.2 -0.8 1.6 1.6 — Overall balance -4.5 -1.3 -0.2 -2.8 0.2 -0.3

External financing -1.3 -1.8 -2.1 -1.0 •0.5 -0.7 Domestic financing 5.8 3.1 2.3 3.8 0.4 1.0

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

i/ Includes accounts of the Consolidated Fund, Special Funds for long-term projects, and the Pnamplujmeut Fund. y Includes contributions to HZB. 3/ The 1991 figure includes TTS327 Billion in capital transfers to TRUTTOC to pay back taxes. 4/ Including proceeds from divestment and use of balances with the Crown Agents.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 92 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 36. Trinidad and Tobago: Central Goverwnt Bevenoe

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

(In •i|r|JLflf^Bi_a^_ y^|n^Amd an** Tj*t%»y» d^|^»*%

•_£_« ___.-— _ 4.860.9 5.604.5 6.754.6 6.085.1 6.759.4 7.638.3

Petrolem revenue 1.715.2 2.038.4 2.504.8 1.458.6 1.289.4 1.324.4 Corporation taxi/ . 1.237.0 1,439.2 1.852.7 957.6 713.1 834.7 Withholding tax 3.2 9.2 41.3 29.6 24.1 20:2 Oil royalties 418.4 483.9 510.6 384.1 506.6 386.2 Oil iapost 15.5 16 7.3 13.6 15.3 16.1 Unemployment levy 26.1 56.4 58.1 53.5 28.8 67.0 •stiooal recovery impost IS 33.7 34.8 20.2 1.5 0.2

Petrolem revenue T m,y 3.499.5 4.248.9 4.624.9 5.465.8 6.244.0 Tax revenue 2.742.2 3,264.9 3.719.8 4,224.7 4.992.6 5,317.4 Taxas on income 1.335.9 1.113.5 1.476.2 1.807.1 2.093.9 2.382.5 Companies 337.0 383.4 414.1 426.1 509.7 638.5 Individuals 727.8 570.8 901.9 1,228.7 1,353.1 1.492.8 Unemployment levy 36.9 0.5 1.2 2.7 6.1 2.5 BatioBal health surcharge 92.1 92.1 96.1 85.4 107.9 105.1 •ational recovery i^ost 23.0 0.3 •"••••^••BoeiAes^s lanr~^WJv 1.5 51.0 87.0 BatioBal health surcharge 35.6 0.1 0.2 1.2 4 **ithnl^ **g »*^ 76.8 CO .3 58.4 59.1 58.2 47.2 •ational recovery i^ost 5.2 6.0 •4.5 4.9 7.9 8.2 Social security contributions 6.8 6.7 8.3 8.2 7.7 7.1 Taxes an property 37.2 40.6 43.9 39.7 72.4 100.5 Tax** OB goods and »«rricas 9S6.2 1.584.8 1,601.0 1.768.0 2,111.8 2,132.4 Purchases taxes 376.9 53.6 5.5 1.9 1.2 1.2 W^t^mm, jjgtjJTt 388.5 473 415.9 668.6 802.2 670.0 Patrol 264.1 278.6 212.2 363.5 519.4 396.0 Otter 124.4 194.4 203.7 305.1 282.8 274.0 BettiBg and eatertaiiBMBt 9.0 3.8 4.9 1.8 14.5 4.6 Social security contributions W^t^mm, jjgtjJTt 5.5 5.2 5.6 7.7 6.6 7.3 Motox vehicle taxes 97.6 76.1 86.1 93.6 83.6 114.1 HI 926.6 1.054.5 968.6 1,176.6 1,905.0 Tarns an international ^mJT 8.4 U.I 9.6 8.9 9.2 StampOtter Jdoty/ 78.7 38.6 17.4 16.2 18.2 21.0 Tarns an international ^mJT 371.4 469.8 562.6 573.7 674.4 6S2.7 Tapnrt doties 189.7 260.4 289.4 289.7 321.5 405.0 Stamp doty 155.2 200.2 251.8 235.7 295.4 175.0 Tarns an international ^mJT qpaeial lavy 8.3 2.1 6.2 43.5 41.5 40.4 Airport dapaztoxa tax 18.2 6.9 15.0 4.6 15.8 32.1 Otbar I/ 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Staap dotios 31.7 49.5 27.7 28.0 32.6 42.2 Montax revenue 383.0 »4-6 22*** 400.2 473.0 £g£ii 7aas aarriea ehazgas iBdMctalg 4/ 221.4 99.6 147.1 122.6 105.4 205.6 fzupaitj iaoaoja 261.6 235.0 982.0 277.6 367.6 721.0 Itofitg from wmfinancial enterprices 27.8 13.8 109.8 108.7 201.2 487.5 IntarMt 4/ 85.5 59.4 176.5 82.8 86.3 106.3 Profits £roai public fiauBeial i&stitotioos 148.3 61.8 95.7 •6.1 80,1 127.2 CaBtralbask profits 148.3 61.8 94.2 86.1 77.4 92.4 Profits from other *flo«^>|Ml 4^Mf|^|ff»^^»t 1.5 2.7 2.5

Capital xrfanu** aad grants 23.5 66.66 0.9 1.6 4.2 69.9

Sources: Hinistry of Fiaaaca; and Fond staff estimates.

I/ InclBdas pajMt by IRiMlUL of TIS327 million in tax arrears. £/ Includes all other taxes OB goods aad services included tmder revenue bead 03-06 except for port and airport departure taxes. 2/ TPClodes export tax and BisceUaneoos trade taxes. 4/ Errlnrtes oil iapost bat includes post offiee profits end other nontax zoiam. £/ Tnrlndot interest paid to the toads for laog-tazB deveiopsent aad unemployment, end interest on the the Baticmal Boosiag Anthority (HHa) loos. ©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 93 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 37. Trinidad and Tobago: Ratios of Central Government Revenue

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

(In percent of GDP)

Total Revenue and grants 2L£ 26^ 29^9 26^3 22L1 26^9 Tax Revenue 24.2 24.6 27.5 24.5 25.1 23.3 Oil 9.3 9.5 -11.1 6.3 5.2 4.7 Corporation tax 6.7 6.7 8.2 4.1 2.9 2.9 Royalties 2.3 2.2 2.3 1.7 2.0 1.4 Unemployment levy 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 Rational recovery 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 LDpo,t 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Withholding tax 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2

Ron-oil 17.2 16.5 18.8 20.0 21.9 22.2 Taxes 14.9 15.2 16.5 18.3 20.0 18.7 Income 7.3 5.2 6.5 7.8 8.4 8.4 Goods and services 5.2 7.4 7.1 7.6 8.5 7.5 VAT 4.3 4.7 4.2 4.7 4.6 Other 5.2 3.1 2.4 3.5 3.7 2.9 International trade 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.3 Imports duties 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.2 Other 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 Property 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 Other 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Hontaxes 2.1 1.1 2.3 1.7 1.9 3.3 Fees, charges and rentals 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.7 PEs profit 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.8 CB profit 0.8 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 Interest receipts 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.4

Capital revenue and grants 0.1 0.3 0.2

fin percent of total t^or revenue)

T•_*_ fK» •••••11w v euu1 e 100.0 100.00 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Oil 35.3 36.44 37.1 24.0 19.1 17.3 Corporation tax 25.4 25.77 27.4 15.7 10.5 10.9 Royalties 8.6 8.6 7.6 6.3 7.5 5.1 Unemployment levy 0.5 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.4 0.9 Rational recovery 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 Impost 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 mtMuiirffng t^r 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Bon-oil taxes 56.4 58.3 55.1 69.4 73.9 69.6 Income 27.5 19.9 21.9 29.7 31.0 31.2 Goods and services 19.7 28.3 23.7 29.1 31.2 27.9 VAT 16.5 15.6 15.9 17.3 17.1 Other 19.7— 11.7 8.1 TT 13.1 13.8 10.8 ***rn«tiontl tndir 7.6 8.4 8.3 9.4 10.0 8.5 Imports duties 7.3 8.3 8.1 9.4 9.7 8.1 Other 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 Property 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 1.1 1.3 Other 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 Rontaxes 7.9 4.2 7.8 6.6 7.0 12.1 Capital revenue and grants 0.5 1.2 •• 0.1 0.9 — Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 94 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 38. Trinidad and Tobago: Contra! Government Expenditures

CIn millions of Trinidad ***d Tobago dollar*)

Fral. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Total arpandituras 5.682.2 5.883.7 6.803.0 6.729.6 6,717.3 7,711.5

Currant exDenditures 5.319.8 5.538.9 6.033.9 6.279.9 6.359.2 7.126.1 Wages and salaries I/ 1.987.2 1.982.8 2.293.2 2.501.7 2.561.4 2.789.8 Otbar goods and services 447.9 588.2 574.5 465.3 516.4 713.1 Interest payments 939.7 997.0 1.082.0 1.235.9 1.437.1 1.597.7 Domestic 410.6 491.2 517.2 773.9 901.9 945.2 External 529.1 505.8 564.8 461.9 535.1 652.5 Currant transfers and Subsidies 1.945.0 1.970.9 2.084.2 2.077.1 1.844.4 2.025.5 Hottsebolds 655.3 721.7 683.4 699.4 727.7 892.9 Public sector bodies 1,087.0 957.3 1.034.9 1.094.4 870.2 840.2 Local governments 475.1 436.8 490.9 547.5 522.2 545.6 Statutory authorities 59.1 47.1 56.8 66.8 56.3 58.7 State enterprises 366.4 473.4 274.1 191.7 156.1 135.7 Public utilities 186.4 172 213.1 288.4 135.6 100.2 nonprofit organizations 132.8 186.5 239.7 179.4 168.7 228.7 Abroad 34.2 35.6 44.0 35.3 29.7 63.7 Other 35.7 69.8 82.2 68.7 32.1 Capitel expenditure and net lending 362.4 344.8 769.1 449.6 358.0 585.— 4 Cipl t a 1 TnrM 1 1 tm 448.9 402.7 342.8 447.9 370.0 640.7 Capital transfers 47.5 71.8 448.1 108.6 95.3 Vat landing -134.0 -129.7 -21.8 -106.9 -107.3 -55.—3

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fond staff estiawtes. I/ Includes contribution* to the Batiemal Insurance Board.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 95 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 39. Trinidad and Tobago: Ratios of Central Government Expenditure

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

CIn T>ercent of GDP)

Current •nenditures 29,0 2L2 26*7 2Z*2 25*5 25*1 Wages and salaries I/ 10.8 9.2 10.2 10.8 10.3 9.8 Othar goods & aervices 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.5 Interest payments 5.1 4.6 4.8 5.3 5.8 5.6 Domestic 2.2 2.3 2.3 3.3 3.6 3.3 External 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.0 2.1 2.2 Trana£er« 6 subsidies 10.6 9.2 9.2 9.0 7.4 7.1 Public sector 2/ 5.9 4.4 4.6 4.7 3.5 3.0 Households 3.6 3.4 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.5 Othar 3/ 1.1 1.4 1.6 1.2 0.9 1.7

Capital expenditures 2*2 2*2 2*5 2.4 1.9 2.3 Capital formation 2.4 1.9 1.5 1.9 1.5 2.3 Capital transfers 0.3 0.3 2.0 0.5 0.4 — Bat lending -0.7 -0.6 -0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2

Total 30.9 27.3 30.2 29.1 26.9 27.2

(Xn Dorcvnt of tot a1 MWIMM0I4 +*

T^ _-_. 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Currant expenditure. 93*6 *L1 S§*7 93*3 2i*2 9£*6 Wages and salaries I/ 35.0 33.7 33.7 37.2 38.1 35.3 Other goods and aervices 7.9 10.0 8.4 6.9 7.7 9.0 Interest payments 16.5 16.9 15.9 18.4 21.3 20.2 Domestic 7.2 8.3 7.6 11.5 13.4 12.0 External 9.3 8.6 8.3 6.9 8.0 8.3 Transfers and subsidies 34.2 33.5 30.6 30.9 27.5 28.0 Subsidies _- 0.16 0.2 0.3 Current transfers 34.—2 33.5 30.—6 30.7 27.2 25.6 Household* 11.5 12.3 10.0 10.4 10. 11.3 Public sector bodies 19.1 16.3 15.2 16.3 13. 10.6 Local governments 8.4 7.4 7.2 8.1 7. 6.9 Statutory authorities 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 0. 0.7 State enterprises 6.4 8.0 4.0 2.8 2. 1.7 Public utilities 3.3 2.9 3.1 4.3 2.0 1.3 Booprofit organizations 2.3 3.2 3.5 2.7 2.5 2.9 Abroad 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.8 Other 0.6 1.2 1.2 1.0 0.5 — Capital oxDejnditur*!* anH net I*n4ine 6 4 5.9 11.3 6.9 &A5.3& •BM7.4W Capital formation 7.9 6.8 5.0 6.6 5.5 8.1 Capital transfers 0.8 1.2 6.6 1.6 1.4 Vat landing -2.4 -2.2 -0.3 -1.6 -1.6 -0.—7

Sources: Data provided by the Trinidad and Tobago authorities; and Fond staff estimates and projections.

I/ Including contributions to the Rational Insurance Board. 2/ Statutory bodies, state enterprises (including public utilities), and local govarnmants. 3/ Including nonprofit organizations.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 96 - STATISTICAL APPEHDIX

Table 40. Trinidad and Tobago: Functional Classification of Central Government Expenditure (Tn tMTMons of Trinidad und Tobaro dollars)

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Total expenditure 5.682.2 5.883. 7 6.803.0 6.729.5 6.717.2 7.711.5 General public services 558.6 602.7 622.2 640.8 687.3 790.4 Military 54.3 60.6 69.2 72.1 81.8 96.4 Public order I/ 520.8 428.7 500.7 547.7 522.4 595.5 Friinritrl^n 796.3 843.0 984.9 965.3 1,006.5 1,207.8 Primary and secondary 616.2 598.7 688.3 718.0 759.3 903.6 Tertiary 113.9 158.8 197.8 147.9 136.2 160.7 Other 66.2 85.5 98.8 99.4 111.0 143.8 Health 552.0 447.2 488.9 656.0 554.0 758.2 Hospitals 292.4 299.5 321.0 454.9 389.9 555.6 Clinics, medical and paramedical practitioners 29.1 27.3 31.6 34.9 44.1 52.9 Dross 6 equipment 202.4 92.9 101.5 130.3 85.1 106.4 Other 28.1 27.5 34.8 35.9 34.9 43.3 Social Security and Welfare 667.1 741.3 715.1 710.6 744.5 892.9 Social Security 594.5 656.8 615.2 620.1 646.7 776.0 Welfare 72.3 82.1 96.0 90.2 97.5 116.6 Other 0.3 2.4 3.9 0.3 0.3 0.3 ffc*iiw^**ff m**A community amenities 153.2 171.0 200.1 258.2 177.3 225.2 BwWIBg VIM* 6^^B^^^BX^7 development 78.6 85.3 106.8 105.6 119.2 141.8 Bousing 62.1 58.3 64.9 82.7 94.5 109.6 Other 74.6 85.7 93.3 152.6 58.1 83.4 Cultural and religious affairs 41.4 56.5 48.6 57.3 49.3 61.6 Economic services 1.165.8 1,178.6 1,596.7 1,483.6 1,147.9 1,130.5 «mVMAx! •m•wilil envcsML*! •y• 14.4 16.9 13.7 280.4 95.3 119.1 Agriculture, forestry; *|«K4«%fl jffHJ frimfc.f^n 353.1 379.3 392.9 388.6 338.6 304.7 Transport* and communication 469.1 491.8 434.4 460.6 341.1 330.4 load transport 234.6 230.4 265.2 285.4 216.2 200.2 Water transport 93.2 97.4 81.5 105.5 48.3 51.1 Railway, air and other 97.7 120.1 40.4 16.6 22.3 20.0 Communication 43.6 43.9 47.3 53.1 54.3 61.9 Other economic services 329.2 290.6 755.7 354.0 372.9 376.3 Other 1,272.7 1.354.1 1,576.6 1,337.9 1,743.2 1,953.0

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fond staff estimates. I/ Including the Coast Guard.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 97 - STATISTICAL ArrrnuDC

Table 41. Trinidad and Tobago: Central Government Transfers to Public Enterprises

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

(In •iii.jgM «f Trinidad *^d Tobago dollars)

Tofcal

Current ti-™«*«~ 686.8 473.4 487.2 480.1 367.6 235.9 Public utilities 186.4 172.0 213.1 288.5 211.5 100.2 Port Authority 36.5 28.5 45.8 51.7 22.4 17.4 Public Transport Service Company 106.4 100.0 107.8 108.2 74.0 47.7 Hater and Sewerage Authority 43.5 43.5 59.5 128.6 115.1 35.1 Other enterprises 742.4 301.4 274.1 191.6 156.1 135.7 BWIA — — 37.7 0.7 CAKORX Ltd. 121.0 126.3 100.0 95.0 71.4 60.0 Central Marketing Agency 5.0 4.5 4.7 — — — Coastal Steamers 22.0 22.8 22.8 20.0 17.8 14.1 Iron and Steel Company of Trinidad and Tobago 86.6 18.7 11.9 3.0 Industrial Development Corporation 9.3 9.9 10.9 11.8 10.5 3.6 Rational Bousing Authority 27.9 22.4 27.0 * 24.8 22.7 22.9 Solid Haste Management Co. Ltd. 10.8 9.7 9.7 8.0 8.0 8.0 Trinidad and Tobago Air Services 10.0 37.2 10.0 2.0 Other 449.8 50.0 39.5 26.3 25.7 27.1

•rTPM^fellffrf*~ 47.5" 99.2 448.1 108.5 104.4 82.8 Public utilities 23.7 27.4 22.0 8.8 9.1 12.8 Port Authority 0.7 — — 0.1 — Public Transport Service Company — — 0.1 Trinidad and Tobago Electricity Coapany 3.6 5.5 3.0 1.0 — Hater and Sewerage Authority 19.4 21.9 18.9 7.7 9.1 Other enterprises 23.8 71.8 426.1 99.7 95.3 70.0 Arawak Cement Co. 17.3 — 13.3 9.0 8.5 9.6 CAMRI Ltd. __-... 0.6 1.1 Iron and Steel Company of Trinidad and Tobago — — 27.1 24.6 67.2 Rational Energy Corporation — — 16.5 — 16.5 4.1 Methanol plant — — — 16.5 4.1 Trinidad and Tobago Oil Company — — 326.6 — worker's Bank — — 5.0 — — — Other 6.5 71.8 37.6 66.1 2.5 55.2

CIn percent of GDP)

Total transfers 4.0 2.7 4.2 2.6 1.9 1.1

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 98 - STATISTICAL APPEHDIX

Table 42. Trinidad and Tobago: Summary of Central Government Financing (In •'fill«ft* of Trinidad •"d Tobaito dolliriQ

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Total 788.2 279.4 **ti 644.5 -*24 23*2

Forign financing -?37.E -391.0 -475.2 -235.9 -135.4 -208.3 Hat borrowing -864.5 -1115.6 -785.0 -502.4 -135.4 -208.3 Disbursements 112.2 248.6 102.9 646.4 1,148.9 1,398.2 Commercial loans I/ 425.0 802.7 1,170.0 Amortization £/ -976.7 -1364.3 -887.8 -1,148.8 -1,284.3 -1.606.4 Debt rescheduled 627.3 724.6 309.8 266.5

Domestic financing 1.025.4 670.4 547.0 884.2 -425.5 -300.4 Financial system 442.9 39.2 -56.1 571.3 -753.4 -521.5 Central bank 488.0 -61.6 273.9 516.9 -1.197.5 -694.9 Commercial banks -157.9 54.6 -359.2 30.4 178.6 88.7 Trust and mortgage financing 112.8 46.2 29.2 24.0 265.5 84.7 Otber 3/ 582.5 627.4 603.1 321.0 328.4 311.3 Outside financial system 4/ 357.0 483.8 811.0 296.7 394.7 109.2 Float j/ 225.5 143.6 -207.9 24.3 -66.3 202.1 O»>^y y|*>«|p<»inft 33^ 2*§ -?3.4 :**£ 518.8 581.9 Divestment 518.8 581.9 Proceeds from abroad 489.6 523.3 Domestic 29.2 58.5 Loan repayments 6/ 33.1 3.8 -23.4 -3.8

Sources: Data provided by the Trinidad and Tobago authorities; and Fund staff estimates. I/ Drawings. V Tnclttdlng amortisation of commercial loans to the Government. 2/ Tnrlndlng unidentified items and float. I/ Holdings of securities outside the financial system. i/ Including errors and omissions. i/ Including changes in accounts bald abroad.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 99 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 43. Trinidad and Tobago: Outstanding Cantral Government Domestic Debt I/ CIn millions of Trinidad %pd Tobago dollars)

Pral. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Treasfffy i^ti* 975.0 975.0 975.0 975.0 975.0 975.0 Financial system 928.1 917.7 945.1 920.4 808.7 611.2 Central Bank 530.9 536.9 929.0 786.2 363.1 183.0 Commercial banks 397.2 380.8 16.1 134.2 445.6 428.2 Other institutions 2/ 46.9 57.3 29.9 54.6 166.3 363.8

Goverment banks 2.413.3 2.978.5 3.744.3 4.048.2 4.386.0 4.574.6

Fingicial system 490.2 582.0 509.4 541.3 596.1 873.0 Central Bask 159.3 119.3 28.5 20.0 0.2 Commercial banks 265.5 345.1 336.1 225.9 167.0 367.0 Trust and mortgage finance company 65.4 117.6 144.8 295.4 428.9 506.0

Nonfinancial system 1.923.1 2.396.5 3.234.9 3.506.9 3.789.9 3.701.6 Finance companies 17.9 8.0 14.5 9.5 9.7 10.0 Trustee fads 3/ 853.3 1.116.7 1.529.5 1.679.6 1,766.4 1.857.0 Other 1,051.9 1.271.8 1.690.9 1.817.8 2.013.8 1,834.6

Total domestic debt 3.388.3 3.953.5 4.719.3 5.023.2 5.361.0 5.549.6

Financial system 1,418.3 1,499.7 1,454.5 1.461.7 1.404.8 1.484.2 Ronfinancial system 1.970.0 2.453.8 3.264.8 3.561.5 3.956.2 4.065.4 Change £/ 357.0 483.8 811.0 296.7 394.7 109.2

Sources: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; and Fund staff estimates.

i/ Data for 1990-93 exclude* central Bank advances to government while data for 1994 includes changes in the level of Central Bank advances to the Government. y Assumes outside the financial system. 3/ Under the edministaration of Trust Companies. 4/ Including float and errors and omissions.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 100 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 44. Trinidad and Tobago: Stannary of Honfinancial Public Enterprises

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

fin f»iTH«f« «f Trinidad and Tobago dollars)

Operating revenues 7.929.7 9.212.7 9.698.7 9.045.2 10.180.5 9.216.2 Other i/ 19.5 22.1 14.1 46 26.4 30.6 Less: Government current transfers 361.6 332.6 425.3 391.7 358.0 163.0 Government capital transfers 186.6 262.6 52.9 18.8 16.5 13.7

Total expenditM*>a>* 8.354.4 9.526.1 10.123.8 9.340.6 10.353.3 10.219.1

Current expenditure 7.920.6 8.833.9 9.146.1 8.537.3 9.540.5 8.460.0 Wages and salaries 2/ 1.625.8 1.661.7 1.682.3 1.885.6 2.021.7 1.740.5 Other goods and services 4.957.9 5.838.7 6.137.3 5.587.9 6,445.1 5.742.7 Interest payments 676.5 517.3 513.9 384.3 408.9 364.5 Other 3/ 8.4 10.2 2.3 5.1 9.6 Taxes and dividends 652.0 806.0 812.6 %677.2 659.6 602.7

Capital expenditures 433.8 692.2 977.7 803.3 812.8 1.759.1

Current balr**^* 370.7 711.4 977.9 899.6 998.0 919.2 Overall balance 143.0 304.0 SLi 161.1 a»t» -795.6 Hat external financing -259.7 -576.3 -480.3 -306.0 -134.3 327.6 Disbursements 433.1 150.5 115.2 191.3 192.6 646.4 Amortisation -692.8 -726.8 -595.4 -497.3 -327.0 -318.8 Het domestic financing 82.2 268.5 435.1 144.9 -93.8 468.0 Financial system -377.1 -225.0 -93.0 -150.0 -123.0 -65.0 Other 4/ 493.8 497.3 506.0 294.9 29.3 533.0 CIn percent of GOP)

Current balance 2.3 3.3 4.3 3.9 4.0 3.2

Overall balance 0.8 1.4 0.3 °-7 0.9 -2.8

Bet external *«*«™H»»g -1.3 -2.7 -2.2 -1.3 -0.5 1.2 Bet domestic financing 0.5 1.2 1.9 0.6 -0.4 1.6 Other 4/ 2.7 -1.0 -0.4 -0.6 -0.5 -0.2

Sources: Ministry of Finance and Fund staff estimates. I/ Including other income and capital contributions and revenues. 2/ Including contributions to UB. pensions and gratuities, and severance payments. I/ Including other current expenditure. 4/ Mainly placements of long-term bonds outside the financial system.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 101 - STATISTICAL APPEHDPC

Table 45. Trinidad and Tobaso: Consolidated Financial Operations of Public Utilities

(In millions of Trinidad and Tobago dollars)

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Qpers-fc**»K revenues 1.047.8 1.151.7 1.392.2 1.566.3 1.727.6 1.994.0

OnAPAfeinv •niMtdt fe.u^AS 1.254.0 1.149.9 1.403.5 1.522.8 1.617.3 1.804.6 Wages and salaries 575.6 551.2 625 786.3 684 641.6 Contributions to national Insurance Board 9.8 9.2 7.1 10.0 9.3 10.4 Pensions and gratuities 19.6 17.0 18.4 18.8 17.7 18.1 Severance 27.6 25.4 27.8 3.8 81.3 9.0 Interest payments 187.9 179.9 138.4 138.8 161.9 166.4 Other goods and services 433.5 367.2 586.8 565.1 663.1 736.7

Operating balance -206.2 1.79 -175.86 -131.9 -133.7 169.4 Current transfers from Central Administration 186.4 172.0 208.8 216.3 205.7 78.8 Taxes and dividends 164.6 175.4 244.0 222.4

Current account- t>»i«*ge -*»•• 173.8 32^9 *i*i 72,0 268.2 Capital transfers from Central Administration 23.7 27.5 21.6 10.4 9.1 Capital contributions 2.9 5.4 3.9 2.8 6.3 9.0 Capital expenditures 50.6 72.4 141.9 129.8 157.1 335.9

Overall balance -*»••• 134.3 -»3.S 32*2. ^69,2 "58.7

Foreign Financing (net) 309.6 -58.3 -42.4 -120.6 -41.3 53.7 Disbursements, loans/credits 327.4 40.0 50.3 Repayments -17.8 -98.3 -41.4 -136.4 -36.9 -74.7 Domestic financing (net) -265.8 -76.0 125.9 152.8 111.0 5.0 Bank 1 Tig system (net) -82.4 -214.5 5.1 136.8 375.5 37.1 Other -183.4 138.5 120.8 16.0 -264.5 -32.1

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates. I/ Hater and Sewerage Authority, Electricity Commission, Public Transport Service Corporation. Port Authority, and Telecommunications Services of Trinidad and Tobago.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 102 - STATISTICAL'- APPKHDTX

Table 46. Trinidad and Tobago: Operations of the Electricity Commission (T&TEC) fin •t^iUffn* of Trinidad *™d Tobago dollars)

Fral. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

OnAPAfeiVIV 1'MlfMtitU.B. 372.0 385.4 387.0 503. S 660.0 717.4 Osperating receipt* 367.4 373.0 373.3 490.1 637.8 702.9 Other receipt* 4.6 12.4 13.7 13.4 22.2 14.5

ZEaSS8tiiH8B*BBSBE5sSlafiB&ODeretln* •xBendltenre5 375.8 363.7 479.7 556.6 650.9 705.4 Uagas and salaries i/ 165.9 175.4 179.1 179.8 185.1 185.0 Contributions to Rational Insurance Board 2.2 2.3 1.8 2.2 2.1 2.3 Interest payments 28.7 24.4 34.7 42.1 71.0 60.4 Other goods and services 179.0 161.6 264.1 332.5 392.7 457.7

Operating balance -3.8 21.7 -92.7 -53.1 9.1 12.0 Current account balance ^3*8 2L2 -92.7 =53*1 ia 12^0 Capital transfers from Central _ Administration 3.6 5.5 3.0 1.0 ,,^ Capital contributions 1.5 2.9 1.0 1.9 2.6 3.0 Capital expenditure 23.9 23.7 6.9 38.1 30.5 60.0

CXrer^il *»¥l*nce :3JL£ £** -*S.6 2ffiL3 -I«r» XiL.0

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates. I/ Wages and salaries for 1989 include arrears and eaployee benefits of $14.6 million for 1985-1987.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 103 - STATISTICAL APFEHDIX

Table 47. Trinidad and Tobago: Operations of the Port Authority ftrt mi 11 inns of Trinidad and Tobago dollars)

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Operating revenues 46.1 SS*L 62*0 63^9 65^1 n*i OoeratiTut eacpendit^r* 157.1 98,2 110.6 137.0 96^2 104.6 Wages and aalariaa 76.2 58.3 68.6 83.8 54.5 48.2 Contributions to Rational Insurance Board 1.4 1.0 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.6 Pensions and gratuities 14.7 16.0 16.5 18.0 12.1 14.1 Severance I/ 25.5 5.2 2.6 0.6 0.2 Interest payments 4.6 6.1 9.2 16.5 15.2 18.—1 Other goods and services 34.7 11.6 12.7 16.9 13.4 23.6

Operating balance -111.0 -47.5 -48.6 -73.1 -31.1 -33.2 Current transfers from Central Administration 36.5 28.5 45.8 51.7 22.4 16.0

Current account balance -74.5 -19.0 I2L* =SL± dL2 "17.2 Capital transfers from Central Administration 0.7 0.1 0.1 Capital expenditure 6.3 0.5 4.—9 9.4 2.—1 0.—7

Overall balance -»o.i -l»i« zLI -30,7 -10.* ^Ll

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates. I/ The balance of the severance funds was mainly used to finance the deficiency in the pension fund (TTS5.4 million) and to Met retroactive COLA for the period 1984-87 vhich was approximately TT$6 Billion.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 104 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 48. Trinidad and Tobago: Operations of the Public Transport Service Corporation (FTSC)

rj

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

QH^ • • i i >*• gavMMti^a 1Z*S 13^0 li*S 18^6 26,1 37.0 ODeF*t.4 «• ejiuBiidl tnre 123.8 126.6 134.4 133.3 104.6 8JL2 Mages and salaries 86.5 74.2 80.8 85.4 66.1 46.9 Contributions to Hational Insurance Board 1.9 1.51 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.0 Pensions and gratuities ~ 1.2 0.3 1.7 1.4 Severance payaents 15.—9 6.5 1.3 2.1 0.4 Interest payments 0.—1 4.9 5.8 5.1 9.3 8.8 Other goods and services 35.3 30.1 38.4 39.7 24.2 26.2

Operating balance -106.6 -113.6 -119.9 -114.7 -77.7 -47.7 Current transfers Iron Central Administration 106.4 100.0 107.8 108.2 68.2 47.7

Cn^*r*nt- account bilvpce •0.2 -13.6 -12.1 -6.5 -9.5 ^_

Capital expenditure £/ 1.8 36.5 — Ov*i»tt|i balance —— 1JL2 Z£5j& -*«-* dLS 21*1 ™ ••

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates. I/ Include a long-tern loan of TT$40 sdllion. An additional TTS1.8 Billion was paid to retrenched workers during April-June 1990.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 105 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 49. Trinidad and Tobago: Operations of the Telecoononications Services (TSTT)

(In millions of Trinidad *nd Tobago dollars)

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Operating revenues 490.7 570.2 784.6 816.5 760.8 930.6

Operating ejin emU^tre 399.5 352.2 378.4 480.1 439.9 649.4 Mages and salaries 116.1 123.0 163.4 280.4 243.8 242.4 Contributions to NIB 2.2 1.8 1.5 4.4 3.7 4.0 Severance 2.1 0.8 0.5 2.5 8.6 Interest payments 154.2 144.3 83.—4 59.4 50.6 47.1 Other goods and services 124.9 82.3 130.1 135.4 139.3 18.1

Operating balance 91.2 218.0 406.2 336.4 320.9 281.2 Government Tax ... 118.0 72.4 95.3 108.1 Dividend 64.—0 46.0 103.0 148.7 114.3 M C rreiit acco**mt balance 91^2 154.0 242.2 161.0 76,9 281.2

Capital expenditure 7.2 14.0 68.5 71.2 105.4 269.2

Overall balance 84JD 140.0 173.7 89.8 -28.5 12.0

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fond staff estimates.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 106 - STAT1 ^TT ^n - AFPERDIX

Table SO. Trinidad and Tobago: Operations of the Water and Sewerage Authority (WASA) fin Dillon* of Trft**idad ***** Tobago dollars)

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Operating receipts 121.» 132.4 144.1 163.8 214.8 237.6 Operating receipts 121.8 123.6 125.0 144.0 159.3 237.6 Other receipts 8.8 19.1 19.8 55.5

Ouejatf^ff expendit**!*^ 197.8 209.2 300.3 286.9 325.7 260.5 Mages and salaries 130.9 120.3 133.1 156.9 134.5 119.1 Contributions to Rational Insurance Board 2.1 2.6 1.1 0.7 1.5 2.5 Pensions and gratuities 4.9 1.0 0.7 0.5 3.9 2.6 Severance 3.5 18.6 1.4 76.5 Interest payments 0.3 0.2 5.3 15.7 15.8 32.0 Other goods and services 59.6 81.6 141.5 111.7 93.5 104.3

Operating balance -76 -76.8 -156.2 -123.1 -110.9 -22.9 Current transfers from Central Administration 43.5 43.5 59.5 128.6 115.1 15.1 Central Administration :*2i5 -?3T3 ISLZ 5*5 1*2 :2J5 Capital transfers from Central Administration 19.6 23.7 18.6 7.7 9.1 Capital contributions and grants 1.4 2.5 2.9 0.9 3.7 6.0 Capital expenditure 13.2 32.4 25.1 8.7 19.1 6.0

Overall balunc* ;2itZ ^39,5 -100.3 1> 3Li :2*»

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 107 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 51. Trinidad and Tobago: Consolidated Financial Operations of State Enterprises JL/ (In will ions of Trinidad er^ Tobago dollars)

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Operating revenues 6.881.9 8.060.9 8.306.5 7.183.9 8.419.6 7.177.3

Operating expenditures 6.006.2 6.803.7 6.930.0 6.103.6 7.201.2 6.204.5 Wages and salaries and contributions to HIS 988.7 984.6 1,002.0 1,010.1 1,151.7 1,016.8 Interest payments 488.5 337.3 375.5 237.5 246.8 198.1 Severance 4.5 74.2 0.2 0.12 33.8 Other goods and services 4,524.4 5.407.5 5,550.5 4,844.0 5,768.7 4,989.6

Operational balance 875.7 1.257.2 1.376.5 1.080.3 1.218.4 972.7 Current transfers from Central Government 175.2 160.6 216.5 146.7 127.8 0.6 Other income 19.4 22.1 14.1 0.17 26.4 30.6 Other current expenditure 8.4 10.2 0.4 Taxes 2/ 651.9 806.0 648.0 658.5 659.6 602.7

Ct>rrent bal^r*ce 410.0 623.7 959.1 585.5 709.0 460.6 Capital transfers from Central Government 68.1 37.6 24.9 8.4 7.4 3.5 Capital contributions and revenues 91.3 190.3 2.5 184.6 272.3 1.2 Capital expenditures 383.2 619.8 835.8 673.5 655.7 1,423.2

Overall balance 186.2 231.7 150.7 105.0 333.0 -957.8

Foreign Financing (Het) -569.1 -592.7 -439.0 -169.6 -97.5 351.8 Disbursements, loans/credits 105.8 37.6 115.2 191.3 192.6 596.5 Bapayments -674.9 -630.3 -554.2 -360.9 -290.1 -244.7 Domestic Financing (Vet) 382.8 360.9 288.2 64.6 -235.5 606.0 Banking System. Het 18.2 -f8.3 -35.2 77.7 -392.9 -41.7 Other 364.6 459.2 35tt 4 -13.1 157.3 564.3

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

I/ Comprises CAJtOHI Ltd.. Trinidad and Tobago Oil Company CTBIBTOC), Trinidad and Tobago (BWIA International) Airways Corporation, Trinidad and Tobago Petroleum Company (TRCTTOPEC), Iron and Steel Company of Trinidad and Tobago CISCOTT), Rational Fisheries, Bational Gas Company, Trinidad and Tobago Methanol Company, Trinidad and Tobago Urea Company, Fertilisers of Trinidad and Tobago CFEBHUR). TRIHGEN, Trinidad and Tobago Rational Petroleum Marketing Company, Shipping Corporation of Trinidad and Tobago (SOOTT), Trinidad and Tobago Marine Petroleum Company (TRIHTOMAR), lAHTEAT, national Energy Corporation, and PLIPDBCO. £/ Includes duties, treasury surplus and VAT.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 108 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 52. Trinidad and Tobago: Operations of Caroni Ltd.

(Tn tMTMrm* of Tri^dad *•*«! TobaJCO do'll*1fNg>

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Operational expenditures 468.7 317.5 323.6 341.5 361.1 407.6 Operational expenditures 616.8 459.4 467.1 496.8 527.7 515.3 tiages and salaries 270.1 235.9 219.2 246.7 272 273.1 Interest psTBents 167.5 34.3 32.4 38.7 7.2 9.0 Goods and services 179.2 189.2 215.5 200.4 214.7 233.2 Severance pagnaents 11.0 33.8

Operational acco^pt balf*^ce -148.1 -141.9 -143.5 -155.3 -166.6 -108.0 Current transfers from Central Administration 155.0 109.9 118.8 119.1 71.5 60.0

1 ^iTrent account bal* ?**^* 6*2 -32.0 -a*-7 -36.2 l*L± i£LZ Capital revenues 1.9 Capital expenditures 5.4

Qy^yaiy fcMla»e> -32 0 ~24 7 '36-2 It* T t -*sri ^LJ.

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 109 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 53. Trinidad and Tobago: Operations of BWIA International Airways Corporation (In *"4llicms of Trl^^dad and Tobajto «j«-»n«*-s)

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Q—- „ . a 1 i f Mlf .an . . ^ *. 636.6 828.1 911.4 1.067.4 1.165.6 1.205.5

Oporetinx ejn>eudit^ft*es 745.9 987.9 1.010.5 1.075.6 1.269.4 1.250.0 tlages and salaries 164.1 175.3 200.3 206.6 226.7 190.5 Interest payments 31.1 25.4 31.3 20.3 49 34.1 Other goods and services 550.7 787.2 778.9 848.7 993.7 1,025.4 ODerat-ionai balance -107.3 -159.8 -** 1 z£*2 -103.8 •44.5 Current transfers from Central Governsent 20.2 40.8 47.7

Current acecmnt balance "87.1 -119.0 -SM ^2 -103.8 •44.5 Capital revenue (sale of equipment) 89.4 48.2 1.4 0.3 1.2 Capital expenditures 28.6 26.5 16.4 42.9 37.1 35.9 Overall balance ^97,3 ^2L1 -**-* ^1 -140^6 -79 T2

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 110 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 54. Trinidad and Tobago: Operations of the Iron and Steal Company of Trinidad and Tobaso (ISCOTT) 1/2/ (In T»11 lions of Trf»>fldad **d Tobajto dollars)

Prel. Proj 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Operating revenues 148.0 108.1 72,3 43,3 SUL 74.4 Operation*! exuenditvyes 236.7 48^2 82> 62JL 125.2 57,2 Cost of sales 171.3 0.8 32.3 8.3 7.2 1.5 Mages and salaries 25.2 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 Other 146.1 0.2 31.9 7.9 6.7 1.1 Freight, insurance and coanissions 4.8 Interest payments 37.3 43.—3 47.—7 19.—9 18.—0 8.—5 Other expenditures 23.3 4.1 2.4 34.5 100.0 47.2

Operational bailee "88.7 59^9 •10.1 -19.4 *43.8 17.2 Current transfers from government 41.9 27.6 56.4 — — — Current account balance ;*LZ 59*9 31,8 JL2 12JL 1L£ Capital transfers 51.7 37.6 Capital expenditure — 4.—8 10.—9 — — — — Overall balffliMr* ^LO 2Z*s 2U 1> 1*2 1Z*2

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fond staff estimates. I/ Severance payments in 1989 is estimated st TTS6.2 million. 27 Data for 1989 reflects ISCOTT separation from ISPATT in May 1989.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - Ill - STATISTICAL APPEHDIX

Table 55. Trinidad and Tobago: Consolidated Energy Sector Enterprises I/ CIn millions of Trinidad •»•<* Tobago doH****)

Prel. Est. 2/ 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Operating revenue 3.816.2 4.416.9 4.094.4 4.098.1 4.074.3 1.748.2

Operational expenditures 2,883.1 3.421.0 3,041.8 3,245.5 3,209.8 1,348.7 Wages and salaries 466.8 462.3 476.4 492.2 414.7 55.3 Goods anad services 2,325.6 2.818.7 2.495.1 2,656.6 2,705.6 1,261.5 Severance 4.5 74.2 2.0 1.0 Interest payments 86.2 65.8 68.3 95.7 89.5 31.9

Ooerational b*i*T»'»e 933.1 995.9 1.052.6 852.6 864.5 399.5

Taxes 368.2 399.9 366.3 162.6 169.7 114.9

C*MTent acco*ip*- balvnce 564. 9 596.0 686.3 690.0 690.8 ?**T* Capital transfers from Central Govement 8.2 -6.3 Capital revenues 62.5 184.6 272.0 Capital expenditures 339.4 359.4 654.3 580.4 495.4 204.5

Overall t^H^pce 233.7 236.6 32.0 103.3 195.4 80.1

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fond staff sstiMtas. I/ Comprises TRCTTOEEC, Bational Gas Coapany and tne Netnanol Company. 2/ The 1994 figures do not include TRIHTOPEC.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 112 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 56. Trinidad and Tobago: Operations of Trinidad and Tobago Petroleum Company (TRINTOPEC)

fin millions of Trinidad and Tobago dollars)

Prel. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

Operating revenues 792.0 735.1 613.7 625.3 527.1

Operating expenditures 436.8 329 245.3 329.7 290.8 Wages and salaries 125.2 110.3 122.8 122.4 94.2 Interest payments 13.7 7.1 9.7 17.8 31.6 Severance 4.5 3.3 2.0 1.0 Other goods and services 293.4 208.3 110.8 188.5 165.0

Operational balance 355.2 406.1 368.4 295.6 236.3

Taxes and dividends 151.6 132.3 121.6 22.8 -24.6 Interest income 8.0 6.2 3.6 1.4 2.8

Current account balance 211.6 280.0 250.4 274.2 263.7

Capital expenditures I/ 124.8 160.6 246.6 206.1 126.4

Overall balance 86.8 119.4 2*1 68.1 137.3

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

I/ Capital expenditures in 1989 include TT$48.5 million on TRINTOMAR, taxes lover because of losses brought forward and lover special petroleum tax revenues.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 113 - STATISTICAL AFPEHDIX

Table 57. Trinidad and Tobago: Operations of the National Gas Company

(In pillions of Trinidad ^pd Tobaito dollars)

Pral. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Op^yafc.4*»n revenues 670.7 714.1 784.1 799.6 1.112.4 1.342.7

Operational expenditures 459.2 477.6 591.5 569.5 796.3 1.094.7 Cost of males 404.0 439.9 535.2 515.3 752.3 1.012.8 Hages and salaries 14.1 16.8 20.5 25.9 33.1 28.6 Other 389.8 423.1 514.7 489.4 719.2 984.2 Other operational costs 18.1 17.4 34.2 42.1 33.3 56.4 Interest payments 37.1 20.3 22.1 12.1 10.7 25.5

Operational *njl***ce 211.5 236.5 192.6 230.1 316.1 248.0

Interest earnings 11.5 15.9 10.5 15.6 21.5 24.7 Irrecoverable gas shortfall/exceptional loss 4.0 Taxes 69.9 71.5 55.9 72.2 128.1 97.8 1 PrTrent accoff^t balu* *** 153.1 180.9 147.2 173.5 205.5 174.9

Sale of fixed assets 1.1 Capital expenditures 6.9 5.2 8.1 19.3 21.1 130.6

Over aX ? ^* 1 •**«^^ 146.2 175.7 140.2 154.2 184.4 £1*3

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fad staff estimates.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 114 - STATISTICAL APPEHDIX

Table 58. Trinidad and Tobago: Operations of Trinidad and Tobago Methanol Company Limited (In millions of Trinidad ««d Tobago dollars)

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Operat-i**» Twenties 141.2 261.7 375.8 263.8 347.8 380.8

Qparational exwHnditf?7*es 21*2 216.0 263.5 183.6 253.7 254.0 Hages and aalaries 6.4 18.8 20.2 24.2 26.1 26.7 Intarast payments 9.2 17.3 10.7 9.6 1.7 6.4 Othar 71.6 179.9 232.6 149.8 225.9 220.9 Operational balance 54,0 15*2 112.3 £L2 24*1 126.8 Taxes 3.1 11.6 21.6 17.1 CnTrent acco*witr b*l«"ce 50^9 45^7 112.3 68.6 72,5 109.7 Capital transfers from Central Administration 8.2 -6.3 Capital expenditure 21.4 27.5 28.3 14.3 9.0 73.9 Overall l»*1ffnce 3L2 1L2 2fL& 48^ &»5 22*8

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Paid staff estimates.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 115 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 59. Trinidad and Tobago: Consolidated Financial Operations of Enterprises Included in the Budget for Statutory Boards and Similar Bodies I/ CIn Millions of Trinidad and Tobago dollars)

Prel. £st. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

QiMrefciikc r»v*iui* 112,1 124.5 137.1 137.1 33,2 44,9

Operatim? eitHeiidttures 113.7 129.6 144.8 142.9 21*2 61^0 Mages and salaries 40.1 37.7 42.8 39.8 42.9 43.6 Contributions to the HIS 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.9 Interest payments 0.2 Other goods and services 72.5 90.8 101.6 102.2 13.2 16.4

-48.0 Operational balance ^9 lU: ^*Z ^8 ->*.! Currant transfers from Central Government 35.0 30.3 35.8 29.8 24.3 24.4 Other current expenditure 0.9 1.2 1.9 0.6 1.1 9.6

Current balance 22JL 24.0 2Z*i 23*1 :£** 2lt*

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates. I/ Comprises national Housing Authority, lational Lotteries, Ch agueramst Development Authority, Central Marketing Agency, the Cocoa and Coffee Industry Board, and the Trinidad and Tobago Racing Authority.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 116 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 60. Trinidad and Tobago: Smary Operations of tha national Insurance Board (NIB) I/ CIn fill ions of Tr****dad *"d Tobago doll firs)

Pral. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Total revenues 349.7 356.4 400.5 408.6 468.0 503.6 Contributions 211.5 202.3 218.1 205.2 239.4 233.2 Investswnt income 138.2 154.1 182.4 203.4 228.6 270.4

Total m^n-wndit"y^ «MJ T>et landing 364.5 329.4 SOS. 7 412.0 443.2 S24.8 Currant expenditure 68.0 67.2 86.1 132.5 128.5 93.1 Capital expenditure 0.5 6.3 4.5 2.9 1.2 6.9 •at landing £/ 152.5 97.2 247.8 95.0 128.4 217.9 Benefits payments 143.5 158.7 167.3 181.6 185.0 206.9

Over**! halaiiga Il±* 27.0 -105.2 I*± 24.8 -21.2

Sources: national Insurance Board; and Fond staff estimates.

I/ For years ended Jane. £/ Includes net increases in investment, bat not investswnt in subsidiary.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 117 - STATISTICAL ^APPEHDIX

Table 61. Trinidad and Tobago: Stannary Accounts of the Financial System I/ (In millions of Trinidadflui dTobag o dollars)

Pral. June 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Nat foreim assats 1.686.2 2.117.6 1.464.4 1.182.1 3.560.5 3.032.1

Met domestic assats 8.616.0 9:046.8 10.379.6 10.812.9 10.038.8 11.088.8 Hat claims on public sector 3,412.8 3,149.7 3,048.8 3,381.6 2.460.9 3,259.7 Central Government 2,904.1 2,945.3 2,887.2 3,525.2 2,705.5 3,423.6 Local governments -58.1 -77.9 -83.6 -63.4 -46.2 -62.2 Statutory bodies -95.7 -90.3 -142.8 -70.7 -90.5 -119.8 Public enterprises 1,031.7 819.6 786.4 477.9 423.6 637.0 Rational Insurance Board 2/ -369.2 -447.0 -398.4 -487.4 -531.5 -618.9 Credit to private sector 7,306.1 7,557.1 8,906.3 9,081.4 9.454.8 8,885.3 Ret inter-financial claims -1,181.8 -742.3 -1,135.6 -720.4 -839.6 -611.1 Capital and surplus of Central Bank -1,488.2 -1.649.2 -1,295.6 -1,376.5 -2.636.5 -2,636.9 Other assets (net) 567.1 731.5 855.7 446.8 1,599.2 2,191.8 Central Bank 191.7 306.1 220.0 233.1 1,007.6 1,121.7 Commercial banks 267.4 261.4 531.3 106.8 465.1 886.3 Trust and mortgage finance companies 108.0 164.0 104.4 106.9 126.5 183.8

A SPR 4ill cation 258.2 279.5 281.1 270.2 378.3 378.3

M~*

Liabilities to nrivmte sector 9.810.5 10.580.6 11.275.8 11.392.0 12.698.4 13.359.1 Honey and quasi-money 8,098.3 8,922.7 9,454.8 9,183.1 10,138.0 10,773.9 Money 1.644.0 1,899.6 2,316.6 2,134.7 2,349.7 2,446.0 Time deposits 3,866.9 4,027.3 3,867.6 3.901.6 4,240.2 4,423.7 Savings and other deposits 2,694.1 3,110.4 3,365.9 3,233.6 3,647.6 3,998.4 Less: nonresidents* deposits -106.7 -114.6 -97.3 -86. 6 -99.5 -96.2 Other liabilities 103.3 111.5 154.6 438.2 634.5 698.8 Private capital and surplus 1,608.9 1,546.4 1,666.4 1,770.7 1,925.9 1,886.4

Sources: Statistical Appendix Tables 45. 48, and SO.

I/ Comprised of monetary authorities (Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago and balances of Crown Agents), commercial banks, and trust and mortgage companies. 2/ In the disaggregated accounts of the financial system, the accounts of the Rational Insurance Board ar« classified with other public financial institutions.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 118 - gTATTJSTTffAT. APPEHDJX

Table 62. Trinidad and Tobago: Origin, Destination, and Financing of Credit Extended by the Consolidated Financial System

Frel. •June 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

(Flows 4r> "Hi? lions of Trinidad *™d Tobago dollars) Total net credit 346.1 430.8 1.332.8 433.3 -340.7 709.2 Origin 346.1 430.8 1.332.8 433.3 -340.7 709.2 Monetary authorities 23.2 -201.3 994.7 227.1 -1,617.8 -604.2 Coauieicial banks 155.8 151.9 866.8 -590.8 282.2 140.0 Trust and aortgage finance ccopanies -323.6 78.6 208.3 265.2 667.4 825.5 Float 490.7 401.6 -737.0 531.8 327.5 347.9

Destination 346.1 430.8 1.332.8 433.3 -340.7 709.2 Public sector 64.1 -263.1 -100.9 332.8 -587.9 210.9 Central Government 442.9 41.2 -58.1 638.0 -181.7 536.4 Local goveronents -14.5 -19.8 -5.7 20.2 37.4 21.4 Statutory bodies -238.5 5.4 -52.5 72.1 52.3 23.0 Public enterprises -102.7 -212.1 -33.2 -308.5 -362.8 -149.4 •ational Insurance Board -23.1 -77.8 48.6 -89.0 -133.1 -220.5 Private sector -52.6 251.0 1,349.2 175.1 548.5 -21.0 •et inter-financiml claim 293.1 439.5 -393.3 415.2 296.0 524.5 Other (including official capital and surplus) 41.5 3.4 477.8 -498.8 -597.3 -5.2 Financinit 346.1 430.8 1.332.8 433.3 -340.7 709.2 Liabilities to private sector 638.2 770.1 695.2 116.2 1,422.6 2,083.3 SPR allocation -6.2 21.3 1.6 -10.9 97.2 97.2 Mediun and long-tea foreign liabilities 195.6 70.8 -17.2 45.7 235.5 96.4 •et international reserves (increase -) -481.5 -431.4 653.2 282.3 -2.096.0 -1,567.7 CXn percent of GPP)

Total net credit 1*2 2*£ 1*2 1*2 ^Lui 2*£ Public sector (net) 0.3 -1.2 -0.4 1.4 -2.4 0.7 Private sector (net) -0.3 1.2 6.0 0.8 2.2 -0.1 CPerceptait* d^fnite) Bet credit to private sector rate of change, in real teats -9.2 -5.6 15.2 -6.0 -8.2 -8.6

Sources: Statistical Appendix Tables 42. 45. and 50.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 119 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 63. Trinidad and Tobago: Liabilities of the Financial System to the Private Sector

Prel. June 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

(In f»*iT*"ns ofTripidad_ggd Tobago dollar*)

Totril li *M If ties to private sector 9.810.5 10.580.6 11.275. 11.392.0 12.698.4 13.359.1 Monetary and quasi-monetary 8,098.3 8,922.7 9,454. 9,183.1 10,138.0 10.773.9 Monetary 1.644.0 1,899.6 2,318. 2,134.7 2.349.7 2.448.0 Currency in circulation 693.3 735.3 747. 698.6 707.4 710.9 Demand deposits 950.7 1,164.3 1,570. 1,435.9 1,642.3 1,737.1 Quasi-monetary 6,454.3 7,023.1 7.136.2 7,048.6 7.788.3 8.325.9 Other liabilities 103.3 111.5 154.6 438.2 634.5 698.8 Private capital and surplus 1.608.9 1,546.4 1,666.4 1,770.7 1,925.9 1.886.4 (Annual t>erc« R*s>

To+^1 liabilities to nrivate sector 2*fi 7.8 6.6 1.0 11,5 18^5 Monetary 11.6 15.5 22.1 -7.9 1.3 5.6 Currency in circulation 3.2 6.1 1.7 -6.6 -5.4 -4.9 Demand deposits 18.7 22.5 34.9 -8.6 4.6 10.6 Quasi-monetary 5.9 8.8 1.6 -1.2 9.1 16.7 Other 6.5 -3.2 9.8 21.3 40.6 42.0

(As percent of GDP)

Total liabilities to private sector £3** *2*i 50.0 il*3 £0*8 ilal Monetary and quasi-monetary 44.1 41.4 41.9 39.7 40.6 37.9 Monetary 8.9 8.8 10.3 9.2 9.4 8.6 Currency in circulation 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.5 Demand deposits 5.2 5.4 7.0 6.2 6.6 6.1 Quasi-monetary 35.1 32.6 31.6 30.5 31.2 29.3 Other 9.3 7.7 8.1 9.6 10.2 9.1 (Struc^ire of private sector deposits by mittni*tty. JT* percent of total deposits) I/

Pea and deposits 12.7 14.0 17.8 16.8 17.2 17.1 Savings deposits 51.5 48.5 43.9 45.5 44.5 43.5 Time deposits 35.9 37.5 38.2 37.7 38.3 39.4 Memorandom item Liabilities to the private sector in real terms £/ 4,667.2 4.596.3 4.786.0 4.457.0 4.378.8 4.481.4

Sources: Central Bank of Trinidad mod Tobago; and Statistical Appendix Tables 42, 45, and 50.

I/ Includes deposits of nonresidents. y Deflated by the ratal! price index (1982-100), and of period.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 120 - STATISTICAL APPEHDIX

Table 64. Trinidad mod Tobago: Suonary Accounts of tbe Monetary System

(In «ftjT*•*<**»« of Trinidad and Tobago dollars: end of period)

Pral. July 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

I. Consolidateid Monetary Svst^n

Hat foreim assets 1.686.2 2.117.6 1.464.4 1.182.1 3.560.5 3.330.9 Cantral Bank 1.353.4 1.845.4 1.233.9 999.0 2,801.0 2.162.0 r r •!•!!• i cial banks 332.8 272.2 230.5 183.1 759.5 1.168.9

Hat domestic asaeta 9.191.5 9.243.5 10.526.9 10.352.7 9.590.1 9.855.5 •at claistt on public aaetor 3,694.3 3.423.5 3.229.1 3,701.2 2,537.9 3.069.9 Cantral Govemaent (net) 2.833.5 2.828.5 2.741.2 3.355.2 2,270.0 3,016.6 Treasury bills 928.1 917.7 945.1 1,049.8 764.11 720.4 Otbar government securities 376.5 371.1 353.9 230.9 174.88 141.5 Otbar cradit 1,183.7 1.180.5 1.188.1 1,205.6 1,186.5 1,184.9 Daposits 345.2 359.2 254.1 868.9 144.66 971.88 Local governments (nat) -58.1 -77.99 -83.6 -63.44 -46.2 •68.5 Statutory bodies (nat) -95.7 -90.3 -142.8 -70.77 -90.5 -165.2 Public enterprises (nat) 1,014.6 763.2 714.33 480.1 404.6 285.0 Official capital and surplus -1.488.2 -1.649.2 -1,295.66 -1.376.5 -2,636.5 -2,636.9 Cradit to privata aaetor 221.88 222.8 281.2 299.1 377.7 159.7 Cradit to privata aaetor 5.995.5 6,226.5 7,385.5 7.437.4 7,673.5 7,246.7 Zntarbank float 309.0 452.4 175.4 -48.4 164.8 256.7 •at otbar assats 459.1 567.5 751.3 339.9 1,472.7 1,759.4

SDR allocation 2SL2 279.5 281.1 270.2 378.3 378.3 Ms*?1npf*~ •"** long-term liabilities 233.5 304.3 ••••MM. «•«••&•287.&1 332.8

Liabilitias to rast of f|«^peial svstem 1.515.6 1.235.5 1.462.8 1.329.2 1.799.7 1.420.8

Liabilities to vrivate aaetor 8.870.4 9.541.8 9.960.3 9.602.6 10.450.0 11.018.4 Monay and quasi-anney 7.411.5 8,168.4 8.495.2 8,077.0 8,780.6 9,405.4 noftWjMTQIMB 1.644.0 1,899.6 2.318.6 2,134.5 2,349.7 2,445.9 Currancy in circulation 693.3 735.3 747.8 698.6 707.4 736.0 .Dan and deposits 950.7 1.164.3 1.570.8 1.435.9 1,642.3 1.709.9 Quasi-money 5.767.5 6.268.8 6.176.6 5.942.5 6,430.9 6.959.5 Tis» deposits 3.180.1 3.273.0 2.908.0 2.795.5 2.882.8 3,014.7 Savings deposits 2.694.1 3.110.4 3.365.9 3.233.6 3.647.6 4,034.3 Lass: nonresidents' deposits -106.7 -114.6 -97.3 -86.6 -99.5 -89.5 Otbar liabilities 15.0 15.0 15.00 Private capital sad surplus 1,443.9 1.358.4 1.450.1 1,525.—6 1,669.—4 1,613.0

ZZ. Monetarr Authorit i.es

••fc. fwp^ipi assets 1.353.4 1.845.4 1.233.9 999.0 2.801.0 2.162.0 •et international reserves 100.9 524.3 -215.5 -352.6 422.3 -2124.5 Otbar foreign assets 1.252.5 1.321.1 1.449.4 1,351.6 2.378.7 2,386.4

•at domestic assets 1.007.8 806.5 1.B01.2 2.028.3 183.3 1.155.7 •at claims on public sector 2,030.2 2.024.2 2,201.6 2.815.2 1.540.5 2,268.2 Cantral Government (nat) 2.161.1 2.101.5 2,373.4 2,957.0 1,692.8 2,488.9 Treasury bills 530.9 536.9 929.0 915.66 363.2 345.2 Otbar government securities 111.0 26.0 17.8 5.0 7.8 5.8 Loans to Government 1.153.0 1.153.0 1,153.0 1,153.0 1.153.0 1,153.0 Deposits 366.2 385.6 273.6 883.4 168.8 984.9 Statutory bodies (nat) -134.4 -81.5 -176.0 -146.0 -158.0 -226.4 Public enterprises advances 3.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 5.7 5.7 Official capital and surplus -1.488.2 -1.649.2 -1.295.6 -1,376.5 -2.636.5 -2,636.9 Cradit to rmmncial banks 258.2 109.5 651.7 333.0 250.0 560.0 Cradit to otbar financial institutions 15.9 15.9 23.5 23.5 21.7 1B-7

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 121 - STATISTICAL APPEHDDC

Table 64. Trinidad and Tobago: Summary Accounts of tb« Monetary System (Concluded) (!TI millions of Trinidad and Tobago dollars: and of period)

Pral. July 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Honsonetary international organizations 61.6 64.8 73.5 79.0 8.3 79.4 Hat unclassified assets 130.1 241.3 146.5 154.1 999.3 866.3

SDR allocation 258.2 279. S 281.1 270.2 378.3 378.3

Medium- and long-tarn foreign liabilities 233.5 304.3 287.1 332.8 522.6 368.9

Liabilities to rest of financial system 1.064.0 1.195.8 1.586.0 1.586.8 1.221.2 1.678.2 Currency 159.2 224.9 218.7 200.7 150.4 106.3 Demand deposits 904.8 970.9 1.367.3 1.386.1 1,070.8 1,571.9

Liabilities to rest of financial system 112.2 137.0 133.1 138.9 154.8 156.3 Of which: RBFI demand deposits 100.1 108.4 113.4 122.7 137.2 142.2

Liabilities to private sector 693.3 735.3 747.8 698.6 707.4 736.0 Currency in circulation 693.3 735.3 747.8 698.6 707.4 736.0

III. Comercial Banks

Hat foreign assets 332.8 272.2 230.5 183.1 759.5 1.168.9

Medium- and long-tarn foreign liabilities 1.06S.1 1.195.8 1.540.1 1.348.8 1.221.2 1.698.1 Cash in hand 159.2 224.9 218.7 200.7 150.4 106.3 Deposits with Central Bank 905.9 970.9 1.321.4 1.148.1 1.070.8 1,591.8

Hat interbank float 8.394.6 8.546.5 9.413.3 8.822.5 9.695.5 9.246.5 •at claims on public sector 1.664.1 1.399.3 1.027.5 886.0 997.4 801.7 Contra! Government (net) 672.4 727.0 367.8 398.2 577.2 S29.7 Treasury bills 397.2 380.8 16.1 134.2 400.9 375.2 Loans and advances 30.7 27.5 35.1 52.6 33.5 31.9 Other government securities 265.5 345.1 336.1 225.9 167.0 135.7 Deposits -21.0 -26.4 -19.5 -14.5 -24.2 -13.1 Local governments (net) -58.1 -77.9 -83.6 -63.4 -46.2 -68.5 Statutory bodies (net) 38.7 -8.8 33.2 75.3 67.5 61.2 Public enterprises (net) 1,011.1 759.0 710.1 475.9 398.9 279.3 Credit to rest of financial system 205.9 206.9 257.7 275.6 356.0 141.0 Private financial institutions 190.4 188.6 234.5 260.5 326.5 125.4 Public financial institutions 15.5 18.3 23.2 15.1 29.5 15.6 Credit to private sector 5,995.5 6,226.5 7,385.5 7,437.4 7.673.5 7,246.7 Ret unclassified assets 267.4 261.6 531.3 106.8 465.1 813.7 Hat interbank float 261.7 452.4 211.3 116.7 203.5 243.4

Liabilities to Central Bank 212.0 109.5 641.7 260.1 288.7 566.6

T4aA»4lities to rest of financial system 1.403.4 1.098.5 1.329.7 1.190.3 1.644.9 1.264.5 Private financial institutions 1.161.0 800.6 792.5 710.8 1.120.3 867.2 Public financial institutions 242.4 297.9 537.2 479.5 524.6 397.3

Liabilities to private sector 8.177.1 8.806.5 9.212.5 8.904.0 9.742.6 10.282.4 Deposit liabilities 6,733.2 7.448.1 7.762.4 7,378.4 8.073.2 8.669.4 Don and deposits 950.7 1.164.3 1.570.8 1,435.9 1.642.3 1,709.9 Savins* deposits 2,694.1 3,110.4 3.365.9 3,233.6 3.647.6 4,034.3 Time deposits 3,180.1 3.273.0 2,908.0 2,795.5 2.882.8 3,014.7 Other borrowing 15.0 15.0 15.0 Loss: nonresidents' deposits -106.7 -114.6 -97.3 -86.6 -99.5 -89.5 Private capital and surplus 1.443.9 1,356.4 1.450.1 1,525.6 1.669.4 1,613.0

Sources: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; and Fund staff estimates.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 122 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 65. Trinidad and Tobago: Commercial Banks—Loans and Advances

Prel. July 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

(In millions of Trinidad and Tobago dollarii>

Total loans and advances •MIMBMMMl6.484.2B 6.298.2 6.981.6 6.780.0 6.805.7 5.974.4

Public sector 1.419.6 1.227.7 1.186.6 925.3 977.6 799.6 Central Government 30.7 27.5 35.1 52.6 33.5 31.9 Local governments 0.7 4.9 Public financial institution* 15.—5 18.—3 23.—2 15.—1 29.5 15.6 Statutory beards 148.8 166.6 176.1 188.5 179.1 146.5 Bonfinancial state enterprises 1.224.6 1.015.3 952.2 669.1 734.8 600.7

Private sector 5.064.6 5.070. 5 5. 795.0 5.854.7 5.831.1 5.174.8 Financial institutions 190.4 188.6 234.5 260.5 326.0 125.4 Businesses 3,119.1 3.078.1 3.517.7 3.609.4 3.467.1 3,128.9 Consumers 1.755.1 1.803.8 2.042.8 1.984.8 2.038.0 1.920.5

(In nereent of total T nflns AT>fi advances)

Public sector 2^9 11*5 1LJD 12*i lit* 13** Of which: Statutory boards 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.5 Bonfinancial state enterprises 18.9 16.1 13.6 9.9 10.8 10.1 Private sector 78J, 80,5. 83^0 £L4 Jlti J&*£ Of which: business 48.1 48.9 50.4 53.2 51.0 52.4 personal loans 27.1 28.6 29.3 29.3 29.9 32.2

Sources: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; and Fund staff estimates.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 123 -

Table 66. Trinidad and Tobago: Liquidity Position of Coonercial Banks (In percent of total deposit liabilities: and of period)

Prel. July 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

20 Reouired liquidity position I/ l?i° 17.0 16rO ^6T0 U,i° 1°

Actual. liouiditY DOS it ion 17.-? 18I|T3 ;5n3 13.8 «*,• 19 r 3 Deposits 11.4 11.2 15.3 13.8 12.8 19.3 Special deposits y 0.5 0.3 Treasury bills y 6.5 6.6 0.2 1.6 4.8 2.7

Credit to the private sector 0,9 1.3 12-2 ^2 3*i 12.7 Monthly average excess liquidity position 1.8 2.1 -1.6 -3.3 -0.8 — Memorandom itens Credit to the private sector 77.1 76.3 85.3 91.2 95.6 90.4 Total deposit liabilities 3/ (in siillion* of ITS) 7.956.7 8.389.2 8.656.3 8.154.4 8.366.3 8.248.5

Sources: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; and Fund staff estimates.

I/ As a percentage of total deposit liabilities. The requirement originally consisted of a cosh reserve requirement and a secondary reserve requirement. The secondary reserve requirement was removed on January 1. 1991. The cash reserve requirement was raised from 12 to 16 percent on August 22. 1991, from 16 to 18 percent in April 1994 and to 20 percent in July 1994. 2/ Does mot count toward the reserve requirement after 1990. £/ Adjusted for inter-bank and intra-bank checks and other items credited by the Central Bank to commercial hanks.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 124 - CTATTgTTffAT. AFPEHDIX

Table 67. Trinidad and Tobago: Account* of Honbank Financial Institutions (HBFIs)

fin millions of Trinidad and Tobago dollars: and of nariod)

Prel. June 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

I Consolidated Accotoats

Hat foreign assets 33^8 100.88 11,2 32^0- 76^0 86^5

ttaMtarr r.*.rv.m and eurrmer heldincs 104.9 114.88 119.3 128.7 143.7 147.1

lUt A^tic ....t. 2.493.0 2.7S9.S 2.973.7 3.333.4 3.719.5 4.042.4 •at claim on public sactor 51.1 93.9 170.2 122.5 318.0 €50.0 Sacuritias 67.4 120.6 161.8 171.7 437.2 508.5 Cantral Goverxnent -81.4 -103.5 -110.0 -113.7 -159.2 -117.9 Public enterprises 65.1 76;8 118.4 64.5 40.0 259.4 Cradit to privata sactor 1.764.9 1.927.5 2.212.8 2.380.1 2,586.9 2,287.9 Investments 25.1 138.1 323.5 396.1 409.2 206.8 Loans 1,739.6 1.789.4 1.889.3 1.984.0 2.177.7 2,081.1 Claim em coonareial banks 342.9 253.4 261.2 391.3 392.0 419.4 Claim on othar financial institutions 31.11 30.9 19.8 108.1 70.7 30.8 Otbar assats 303.0 453.8 309.7 331.4 351.8 654.2 Liabilities to Commercial banks 139.8 267.4 210.1 181.0 188.0 346.8

Liabilitias to Cantral Bank «• ^^ ^ ^^ ^^ ^^ Liabilities to othar financial

institutions 1.011.8 •••BHMM1.121.8V ••MMMI882.9V •Bfifiw685.5A 668.1 592.5 Liabilitias to nrivata sactor 1.478.1 1.585.9 2,019.2 2.617.6 3.083.0 3.336.6 Deposit liabilitias 941.9 981.5 1.187.2 1,530.9 1,822.0 1,880.6 Tim daposits 925.6 965.3 1,171.2 1,515.0 1,806.3 1.865.0 Savings daposits 16.3 16.2 16.0 15.9 15.7 15.6 Othar liabilitias 195.8 223.1 416.7 638.5 807.7 *67.5 Privata capital and surplus 340.4 381.3 415.3 448.2 453.3 488.5 **• JIMmea Bouses Hat for aim assats 24.6 93.6 ^ESM12.0& «&••&•14.8» S3UA68.8 •Mik79.3& Balances abroad 26.3 95.3 12.4 15.1 69.1 79.6 Banresident tim daposits -1.7 -1.7 -0.4 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 Honatp^rv Tesarvp* *it*A cur ran er holdinss 27.1 32.0 29.5 ••Buy36.9* ••BM41.2K •SfiA43.3S Currency 0.3 1.0 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.8 Baserva daposits 26.8 31.0 29.1 36.5 40.5 42.5 Net domestic Assets 695.6 886.0 892.6 1.012.5 996.3 1.159.4 Cradit to public sactor -38.6 -82.3 -53.6 -47.0 -138.2 -112.5 Government -86.6 -102.7 -99.9 -113.7 -159.2 -118.4 Credit 22.8 21.5 30.9 17.9 18.9 81.8 Deposits -109.4 -124.2 -130.8 -131.6 -178.1 -200.2 Public enterprises 48.0 20.4 46.3 66.7 21.0 5.9 Credit 71.0 68.7 110.0 102.0 50.8 35.9 Deposits -23.0 -48.3 -63.7 -35.3 -29.8 -30.0 Credit to privata sector 382.1 526.3 623.9 688.5 757.9 667.0 Investaants 8.6 42.0 75.6 59.9 112.5 132.3 Loans 373.5 484.3 548.3 628.6 645.4 534.7 Claim on coanercial banks 161.4 151.4 118.1 122.3 130.7 125.9 ri^t^ nf» *«t>*r ?inaji«ria.l iPT^i^«*ti"n* 4.3 7.9 (.9 32.3 285 W . 7f Fixed assats 133.9 135.8 133.77 133.6 138.1 146.1 Other assats 52.5 146.9 63.6 82.8 79.1 349.5 Liabilities to Commercial banks 2L1 184.9 12L2 139.2 112.3 220.8 Liabilities to Cantral Bank

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 125 - STATISTICAL APPEHDDC

Table 67. Trinidad and Tobago: Accounts of Nonbank Financial Institutions (RBFIs) (Continued)

(In pillions of Trinidad and Tobano dollars: end of period)

Prel. June 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Liabilities to private financial institutions 232.9 381.8 208.1 172.1 234.7 168.6

Liabilities to public financial institutions

Liabilities to private sector 433.3 444.9 602.3 752.9 759.3 892.6 Tine deposits 234.1 207.4 207.8 405.5 445.6 458.9 Other Liabilities 199.2 237.5 394.5 347.4 313.7 433.7 Capital and reserves 132.3 149.4 158.1 165.9 159.9 185.1 Other liabilities 66.9 88.1 236.4 181.5 153.8 248.6

in. Trust and Mortgage Finance Companies

Monetory reserves and currency holdings 72,0 2Z*£ 84*° 86,0 S&tZ £LO

Net domestic Assets 1.705.7 1.784.3 1.992.6 2.257.8 2.660.0 2.818.1 Credit to public sector 87.7 173.2 218.1 167.8 454.5 760.8 Central Government 70.6 116.8 146.0 170.0 435.5 507.3 Credit 7.3 2.7 0.1 0.5 Securities 65.4 117.6 156.1 170.0 435.5 506.8 Deposits -2.1 -3.5 -10.2 Other 17.1 56.4 72.1 -2.2 19.0 253.5 Credit 27.1 35.2- 64.3 48.4 31.8 29.6 Securities 2.5 22.6 8.3 33.4 53.4 289.7 Deposits -12.5 -1.4 -0.5 -84.0 -66.2 -65.8 Credit to private sector 1,310.6 1.330.6 1.520.8 1.644.0 1.781.3 1.572.3 Investments 16.0 95.6 247.4 332.9 293.4 71.2 Loans 1,294.6 1,235.0 1.273.4 1.311.1 1.487.9 1.501.1 Claisv OB commercial banks 174.7 93.5 136.4 263.3 255.5 287.1 Credit to private financial institutions 24.7 20.5 3.3 73.4 20.5 11.9 Credit to public financial institutions 2.5 9.6 2.4 21.7 2.2 Fixed assets 19.1 18.4 18.1 20.1 28.9 28.0 Other assets 88.9 145.6 86.3 86.8 97.6 155.9

Liabilities to Commercial banks 82^5 5L2 86,3 *I*0 2£u* »*.* Liabilities to C«*AMI m«fr

Liabilities to private financial institutions 575.2 490.4 405.2 328.6 283.9 278.1

Liabilities to public financial institutions 203.7 249.6 269.6 184.8 149,5 145.8

Liabilities to private sector 940.1 1.038.8 1.315.5 1.789.4 2.248.4 2.367.1 Tin* deposits 686.8 754.3 959.6 1.106.1 1.357.4 1.402.5 Other liabilities 88.3 96.5 139.6 438.2 634.5 698.8 Capital and reserves 165.0 188.0 216.3 245.1 25 A 5 265.8

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 126 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Tabla 67. Trinidad and Tobago: Accounts of Honbank Financial Institutions CHBFXs) (Conclndad)

(Tn miln«ns of Trinidad and Tobago dollars: and of period)

Pral. Juna 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

IV. Th^igt. Institutions

Hat foreign assets 2*2 2*2 2*2 2*2 2*2 2*2 Currency holdings lal £*£ lil i»£ £*£ £*£ Hat domestic assats 1L2 89^2 88,5 63,1 62*2 «*2 •at claim on Cantral Govaanant 2.0 3.0 5.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 Cradit to privata aactor 72.2 70.6 68.1 47.6 47.7 48.6 Mortgages 71.5 69.9 67.4 44.0 44.2 45.1 Tidoans and advances 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 Securities 0.5 0.5 0.5 3.3 3.3 3.3 daiav on eoanareial banks 6.8 8.5 6.7 5.7 5.8 6.4 Daaand dapoaits 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.4 0.2 Tisw daposits 4.9 8.2 5.8 4.7 5.2 6.0 Otbar daposits 1.4 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 Claisv on otbax privata financial institutions 2.1 Othar assats 8.6 7.1 8.0 8.1 7.6 7.8

Liabilities to Commercial banks SLJL £*£ JL£ £*£ Liabilitias to privata aaetor 104.7 102.2 101.4 2L1 22*2 2**2 Daposit UabiUtias 21.0 19.8 19.8 19.3 19.0 19.2 TiM daposits 4.7 3.6 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.6 Savings daposits 16.3 16.2 16.0 15.9 15.7 15.6 Othar UabiUtias 83.7 82.4 81.6 56.0 56.3 57.7 Shares 43.1 43.9 40.9 37.2 36.9 37.6 Otbar UabiUtias ««M»I«*««IE reserves 40.6 38.5 40.7 18.8 19.4 20.1

Sources: Cantral Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; and Fund staff astiMtss.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 127 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 68. Trinidad and Tobago: Reserve Position of Nonbank Financial Institutions (NBFls) I/

Prel. June 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

(In millions of Trinidad and Tobago dollars: end of period*)

Legal reserve position Required reserves 98.1 103.6 112.0 122.6 136.2 139.8 Actual reserves 98.6 106.0 111.9 122.7 137.2 140.4 Excess reserves 0.5 2.4 -0.1 0.1 1.0 0.6 Deposit liabilities 1,962.0 2,072.0 2,240.0 2,451.5 2,786.3 2,855.0

(In percent of deposit liabilities^ Legal reserve position Required reserves 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 Actual reserves 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 4.9 .. Excess reserves - - 0.1 - • -- --

Sources: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; and Fund staff estimates. I/ Finance houses, trust companies, and mortgage finance companies.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 128 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Tabla 69. Trinidad and Tobago: Summary Accounts of Davalopmant Banks i/

tip Billions of Trinidad and Tobaito dollars; and of period)

Fral. Juna 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Nat foraicn assats "89.6 -124.6 -1SO.S -243.0 •314.9 •351.3

Cash £** fi-1 Hat domestic assats £9,6 123.7 ISO.O 243.0 314.9 351.3 •at claim on pubUc sactor -601.5 -429.7 -415.5 -405.5 -398.8 -524.1 Local balancas doa to Cantral Govaranant •482.3 -292.9 -300.5 -294.1 -289.8 -283.5 Local balancac daa to othar public bodias -119.2 -136.8 -115.0 -111.4 -109.0 -240.6 Othax liabilitias -96.3 -112.1 -118.9 -197.6 -212.0 -87.6 Cradit to privata sactor 896.9 947.0 987.2 1,133.1 1.175.9 1,167.7 Sacuritias 10.0 13.9 28.5 71.1 S4.4 82.8 Loans and advancas 886.9 933.1 958.7 1,062.0 1,091.5 1,084.9 Rat claims on ceasttrcial banks 24.0 42.3 11.2 53.8 63.1 109.6 Othar assats 43.7 36.9 32.2 54.0 77.0 82.22 Official capital and rasarvas -177.2 -360.6 -346.2 -394.8 -390.3 -396.5

Sourcas: Cantral Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; and Fond staff astiaatas. I/ Xncladas tha Agricultural Davalop»ant Bank (ADB); Davalopvant Financa Uatttad (DFL); and tha Trinidad and Tobago Mortgaga Financa Coopany (TTMFC).

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 129 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 70. Trinidad and Tobago: Market Value of Trading in Securities on the Stock Exchange

(Values in millions of Trinidad and Tobago dollars)

Public I/ Composite 3_/ Company Government 2J Total Price Shares Securities Value Index

( Average)

1989 146.7 139.6 286.3 48.7 1990 235.3 278.7 514.0 83.1 1991 338.7 74.1 412.8 81.8 1992 85.8 27.5 113.0 60.2 1993

1989 I 9.5 21.1 30.6 32.8 II 4.2 24.1 28.3 37.1 III 49.2 20.1 69.3 50.1 IV 83.8 74.3 158.1 48.7

1990 I 18.1 66.3 84.4 54.9 II 33.7 30.2 63.9 63.9 III 108.5 63.1 171.6 64.4 IV 75.0 119.1 - 194.1 83.1 1991 I 27.2 27.2 54.4 75.7 II 111.2 9.8 121.0 84.8 III 73.8 10.1 83.9 85.4 IV 126.5 27.0 153.5 81.8 1992 I 11.9 10.4 22.3 68.1 II 15.7 9.3 25.0 64.9 III 42.3 3.9 46.2 63.8 IV 15.6 3.9 19.5 60.2 1993 I 14.7 0.4 15.1 59.1 II 35.6 8.7 44.3 72.5 III 24.3 2.7 27.0 78.3 IV 226.4 3.0 229.4 82.5 1994 I 119.6 0.5 120.1 89.6 II 61.7 13.1 74.8 86.6

Sources: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; and Fund staff estimates,

I/ Public companies1 data have been revised to reflect sales only. 2/ Excludes treasury bills. I/ End of period; October 1981-100.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 130 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 71. Trinidad and Tobago: Investments By Self-Administered Pension Flans

fin millions of Trinidad end Tobago dollars: end of period)

Frel. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

Total investment 1.646.7 2.034.5 2.867.8 3.755.2 4.055.6

Local assets 1.639.5 2.024.3 2.828.7 3.533.2 3.815.9 Trinidad and Tobago government securities 308.3 590.9 989.2 1,083.7 1,170.4 Mortgages 288.4 275.2 321.7 390.1 421.3 Reel estate 1.5 12.2 12.2 18.8 20.3 Trinidad and Tobago •quities 151.1 229.6 316.4 319.4 344.9 Time deposits and other local assets 890.2 916.4 1,189.2 1.721.2 1,858.9 Of which: fixed deposits 570.9 533.6 711.5 579.4 625.8

Foreign assets 7.2 10.2 39.1 222.0 239.8 Foreign government securities 4.9 6.6 14.2 0.3 0.3 Other foreign assets 2.3 3.6 24.9 221.7 239.5

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estimates.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 131 - STATISTICAL APPEHDDC

Table 72. Trinidad and Tobago: Insurance Companies Statutory Fund - Securities Hald in Trust (Long-Term Business) fin millions of Trinidad and Tobago dollars: and of period)

Pral. 1986 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993

Total investments 2.229.3 2.523.9 2.873.8 3.207.7 3.346.7 3.715.9

Local assets 2.073.6 2.261.3 2.627.7 2.756.1 2.772.4 2.845.6 Trinidad and Tobago government securities 364.0 455.4 453.1 694.3 695.4 696.5 Mortgages 850.3 778.7 820.4 719.0 718.7 690.9 leal estate 195.7 225.3 251.5 346.0 351.7 409.7 Trinidad and Tobago equities 146.8 288.2 427.4 421.9 399.9 379.0 Fixed deposits 265.6 223.7 197.4 274.5 271.5 278.5 Other local assets 225.8 272.0 459.7 275.2 329.3 386.1 CABICQM assets 25.4 18.0 18.2 25.2 5.9 4.9

Foreixn assets 155.7 262.6 246.1 451.6 574.3 870.3 Foreign government securities 44.4 89.4 26.1 28.0 68.3 99.3 Other foreign assets 111.3 173.2 220.0 423.6 506.0 771.0

Sources: Ministry of Finance; and Fund staff estiisstes.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 132 - STATISTICAL APPEHDDC

Tabla 73. Trinidad and Tobago: Interest Kates \/

fin pareant par aroMi": and of period)

Prel. June 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Commercial banks Savings deposits Ordinary 3.25 2.75 2.50 2.50 2.75 2.75 Special 6.00 6.00 6.00 6.25 6.25 6.25 Tie* deposits 0-3 Months 6.46 6.00 5.70 7.79 7.74 7.18 3-6 Maths 6.75 6.54 6.26 8.28 8.10 6.00 6 snnthft*! yaar 7.07 7.00 6.71 8.44 8.37 8.31 Pris* landing rate Basic prisw rata 13.50 12.68 12.68 15.50 15.50 15.50 Tea 12.66 12.23 12.75 15.00 15.25 15.75 Daaand 13.50 13.25 12.68 15.50 15.50 15.50 Overdraft 13.50 13.25 12.68 15.50 15.50 15.50 Baal astata awrtgage 13.90 13.25 13.40 15.75 16.25 16.00 Weighted averege daposit rata y 5.90 5.53 5.50 6.34 6.53 6.66 ticighted average landing rata £/ 12.04 11.73 11.77 12.75 13.08 13.62

Thrift institutions Savings deposits 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00 Tis» deposits (1-3 years) 7.25 7.00 7.00 8.00 6.00 6.00 Mortgage loans, residential 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 13.00 Weighted averege daposit rata y Tisw deposits 1-3 years 8.11 8.26 8.44 9.90 10.25 13.25 Over 3 years 8.50 8.50 8.63 • • . • • • • • • Mortgage loans Basidential 11.75 11.75 11.38 11.25 12.25 13.25 Commercial 13.50 13.50 13.38 14.32 15.00 15.00

FinMnc*A tftflncA^ •fftff nM T f Vi ant ttanV* Tis» deposits (1-3 years) 9.32 9.00 8.79 10.79 10.75 10.25 Tnstallaent loans 12.22 12.63 11.25 12.25 13.25 12.50 Eurodollar in London (three smiths) Weighted average deposit rata g/ 9.02 8.69 6.74 10.34 11.11 Ueighted average lending rate g/ 12.60 12.42 12.02 12.20 12.51 — Central Bank Bank rate 9.50 9.50 11.50 13.00 13.00 13.00 Sacurit-* •« ***!*•*+ Treasury bills I/ 7.19 7.51 7.55 9.26 9.46 10.14 Goveraaant bonds ±/ 1-10 years 10.00 10.12 10.07 11.94 10.63 ... Over 10 years 10.79 10.77 10.79 13.29 10.08 • • . MeBorandua itaas S/ Treasury bills United Kingdom 13.05 14.08 10.96 8.94 5.23 4.64 United States 6.11 7.51 5.41 3.46 3.02 3.54 Barbados 4.90 7.07 9.34 10.68 5.44 8.01 Javaica 19.10 26.21 ... 34.36 28.85 45.97 Eurodollar in London (three smiths) 9.10 8.21 5.89 3.77 3.25 4.58 Sources: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; and IMF, International Financial Statistics. i/ Median rates, unless otherwise specified. 2/ Methodology revised in 1966 to better reflect weighting and. in the case of loans, the practice of discounting from stated interest rates. Period averages. 2/ Ueighted average discount rate for the year. 4/ Average yield. £/ Period averages.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 133 - STATISTICAL APPERDIX

Table 74. Trinidad and Tobago: International Reserves

(In millions of U.S. dollars: end of period)

Prel. Aug. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Total net international reserves 102.0 187. S 3*6 -36-* 207.2 173.6

Total net official reserves 22*2 123,4 ^50*7 -83.0 75*2 £*I

Central Government 2*1 2*2 3*2 4*0 2*i 2*1 Central Bank 20*8 120. S 'S3.9 -87.0 22*8 2*i •Foreign assets 244.6 463.1 337.1 203.2 229.2 125.0 Foreign currency 1.5 2.4 2.2 7.5 0.4 0.6 Balances with banks abroad 132.1 451.8 330.3 192.0 189.8 120.9 Adjustment for valuation of gold -0.4 Securities 102.4 7.9 2.6 3.4 38.7 3.2 SDR Hoi ^iTig? 9.0 1.1 2.0 0.3 0.3 0.3 Reserve position in the Fund Foreign liabilities -223.8 -342.6 -391.0 -290.2 -156.4 -122.4 Of which: use of Fund credit -204.7 -329.4 -384.8 -282.3 -154.9 -114.7

Commercial banks 78*3 64*1 21*2 4£*6 132.0 168.5 Foreign assets 126.5 115.8 99.6 108.4 214.2 230.8 Foreign liabilities -48.2 -51.7 -45.3 •61.8 -82.2 -62.3

Sources: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; and Fund staff estimates.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 13* - STATISTICAL APPEHDDC

Table 75. Trinidad and Tobago: Suanary Balnea of Payments, 1990-94

tin •jiiiiaps of U.S. dollars; unless otherwise indicated)

Eat. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Currant account balanea -117.2 385. 2 -46.1 aa,! 73JT 104.0

Trad* balance 326.2 816.9 314.4 462.3 315.2 436.0 Exports, f.o.b. 1.534.6 1.935.2 1.751.4 1.661.8 1.480.3 1.640.4 Ftiela 8*6.0 1.039.4 985.3 908.5 767.1 691.8 Chaadcala 291.3 286.4 352.6 286.2 277.8 422.3 Otbar 35S.2 609.4 413.5 467.1 435.4 526.3 laporta, c.i.f. -1,208.4 -1,118.3 -1.436.9 -1.199.5 -1.165.1 -1.204.0 Consumer gfftMi* -397.4 -380.3 -237.2 -283.1 -239.1 -236.9 Pt»* antTrtM* *•** intermediate goods -404.7 -426.0 -727.8 -561.2 -535.3 -445.0 Capital goods -406.3 -312.1 -471.9 -355.2 -390.7 -427.3

Services (not) -418.8 -406.4 -346.8 -355.4 -234.6 -312.9 ••onfactor aazviea 1.5 23.7 91.4 88.9 83.9 71.6 Factor aarvica -420.3 -430.1 -438.2 -444.3 -318.5 -384.5

Transfers (net) -24.6 -25.3 -13.7 -16.0 •6.8 -19.0 Canital (net) -200.0 -503.5 -228.2 -139.1 22U 153.0 Public aactor capital -242.4 -371.1 -317.7 . -191.8 -42.7 -13.1 Private aactor capital 65.0 146.7 79.7 41.5 358.8 266.1 Direct investment 148.9 109.4 169.1 177.9 368.7 415.3 of which: divestment 169.0 208.0 Commercial ^*Tnify -22.—6 14.—3 9.—8 11.—2 -92.0 -100.0 !!•£. •••^•» MV%H cvn4 4t^4 >wt* 139.0 22*1 ;£L2 :±Li -142.5 -107.7 Ovarall balanea -178.2 -175.4 -297.0 -102.3 155.4 150.0 rvmge in n«t official rasazvaa (incraaaa -) 2£*i ~**i* 173.9 22.5 -155.4 -150.0 Of which: 2MT 81.3 132.6 54.4 -100.7 -127.4 -72.0

Dabt raaehadulinx 243.8 275.3 l?3tl £!£ = ^ Memorandom items Groaa official raaarvas 247.1 466.0 340.1 207.2 231.6 309.6 (In Booths of goods and nonfactor aarvicaa) 2.5 4.1 2.5 1.7 2.0 2.7

CXn varcant of GDP)

Trada balnea 7.5 16.1 5.9 8.5 6.8 10.9 Currant account balanea -2.7 7.6 -0.9 1.7 1.6 2.1

Sourcaa: Cantral Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; Central Statistical Office; and Fund staff estimates.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 135 - STATISTICAL-APPENDIX

Table 76. Trinidad and Tobago: Summary of Currant Income (In millions of U.S. dollars; unless otherwise indicated)

Frel. fist. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Currant Income (net) -444.9 -455.4 -451.9 -460.3 -325.3 -403.6

Factor services -420.3 -430.1 -438.2 -444.3 -318.5 -384.5 Credits 32.5 39.6 48.6 29.8 40.3 31.8 Public interest receipts 14.0 27.6 41.4 25.2 32.7 23.5 Private 18.5 12.0 7.2 4.6 7.6 8.4 Debits -452.8 -469.7 -486.8 -474.1 -358.8 -416.3 Interest payments on public debt -210.7 -214.3 -217.0 -172.5 -145.3 -156.9 Government -124.5 -119.0 -132.9 -108.7 -102.2 -105.1 Honfinancial public sector -67.9 -63.3 -47.9 -32.6 -19.1 -42.2 Financial institutions -18.3 -32.0 -36.2 -31.2 -24.0 -9.6 Reinvested earnings -91.3 -74.6 -117.1 -136.1 -91.5 -110.2 Remitted profits -86.8 -124.7 -120.9 -115.5 -68.6 -96.2 Dividends -10.8 -14.6 -20.6 -35.4 -29.4 -35.0 Interest payments on private debt -53.2 -41.5 -11.2 -14.6 -24.0 -18.0

Current transfers (net) -24.6 -25.3 -13.7 -16.0 -6.8 -19.1 Government -5.2 -4.0 2.6 -0.1 0.5 -6.1 Private -19.4 -21.3 -16.3 -15.9 -7.3 -13.0 Memorandom items Currant income (net) (in percent of GDP) -10.3 -9.0 -8.5 -8.5 -7.0 -8.3 Services -418.8 -406.4 -346.8 -355.4 -234.6 -312.9 (in percent of GDP) -9.7 -8.0 -6.5 -6.5 -5.0 -6.4 Services and transfers -443.4 -431.7 -360.5 -371.4 -241.4 -332.0

Sources: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; and Fund staff estimate*.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 136 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Tabla 77. Trinidad and Tobago: Suaoary of Honfactor Sarvieas

CIn milling** af U.S. dollars? tmlMsotjhgrwlMiTidicatad)

Pral. Eat. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Honfactor aarvicas 1.5 23.7 91.4 88.9 83.9 71.6 Transportation 36.6 66.6 75.8 100.6 115.3 95.8 Cradit 134.4 178.2 187.1 226.3 211.5 213.6 Dabit -97.8 -111.6 -111.3 -125.7 -96.2 -117.8 Traval -34.2 -27.6 -9.2 -3.7 -25.5 -7.2 Cradit 84.5 94.7 103.6 111.2 81.1 89.2 Dabit -118.7 -122.3 -112.8 -114.9 -106.6 -96.4 Otaar aarvicas -0.9 -15.3 24.8 -8.0 -5.9 -17.0 UPA f aas 0.9 5.6 11.5 10.2 8.0 12.0 Otaar -1.8 -20.9 13.3 -18.2 -13.9 -29.0 Memorandom items Exports of nonfaetor aarvicas 219.8 278.5 302.2 347.7 300.6 314.8 (in pareant of GDP) 5.1 5.5 5.7 6.4 6.4 6.5 Zsports of nonfaetor aarvicas -218.3 -254.8 -210.8 -258.8 -216.7 -243.2 (in pareant of GDP) -5.0 -5.0 -4.0 -4.8 -4.6 -5.0

Sooreaa: Cantral Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; and Fund staff astiaatas.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 137 - STATISTICAL APPEHDIX

Tabla 78. Trinidad and Tobago: Suonary of tha Capital Account (In millions of U.S. dollars: unlass otharwis* indicated)

Pral. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Capital account (nat) -200.0 -503.5 -228.2 -139.1 224.1 153.0

Public aactor capital (nat) -242.4 -371.1 -317.7 -191.8 -42.7 -13.3 Gowsraaant borrowing -196.1 -260.8 -184.9 -118.7 -25.0 -35.6 Piabursaaants 32.2 58.5 24.2 152.1 215.0 239.0 Of which: Project loans 32.2 58.5 24.2 52.1 14.1 39.0 Ccanarcial borrowing 100.0 150.0 200.0 Aaortisation du« -228.—3 -319.—3 -209.—1 -270.8 -240.0 -274.6 Govarnaant landing (nat) I/ 8.1 0.9 -5.2 Public antarpris* sactor -61.3 -135.6 -113.0 -72.—0 -25.—1 60.—6 Disbursanants 102.3 35.4 27.1 45.0 36.0 110.5 Amortisation du« -163.6 -171.0 -140.1 -117.0 -61.1 -49.9 Financial public sactor 48.9 31.3 -8.0 24.9 7.4 -38.1 Disbursements 60.0 59.6 31.0 55.2 54.0 4.2 Aaortization -11.1 -28.3 -39.0 -30.3 -46.6 -42.3 Otbar long tarn -42.0 -6.9 -6.6 -26.0 — — Pzivata sactor capital (nat) 65.0 -146.7 79.7 41.5 358.8 270.3 Diract ivrastasnt 148.9 109.4 169.1 177.9 368.7 415.3 Pivastaant 169.0 208.0 -- ftainvastad •arnlngt 91.—3 74.—6 117.1 136.—1 110.9 110.2 Otbar 57.6 34.8 52.0 41.8 88.8 97.1 Dabt (nat) -83.9 -256.1 -89.4 -136.4 -9.9 -145.0 Long-tan (nat) -27.7 -18.7 -26.8 -30.2 Short-tazB (nat) -56.2 -237.4 -62.6 -106.2 -9.—9 -145.—0 Of which: trad* cradits 8.9 -93.5 -51.0 -31.8 58.8 ... Cooaarcial banks (nat) -22.6 14.3 9.8 11.2 -92.0 -100.0 Memorandom items _ _ AaorUzation raschadulad 244.0 274.0 123.0 70.0 Govarmant 147.0 169.0 73.0 63.0 .. Public antazprisas 97.0 106.0 50.0 7.0 — — — Foraign diract imrastaant/GDP 3.4 2.2 3.2 3.3 7.9 8.6 (azcluding divastaant) 3.4 2.2 3.2 3.3 4.3 4.3

Sourcas: Cantral Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; and Fund staff astiaatas.

i/ Govaroant loans and rapayaants to foraign govarnaants (mainly Guyana).

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 138 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Tabla 79. Trinidad and Tobago: Sunmary of Exports, f.o.b.

Bral. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

(In millions of U.S. dollars: unless otharwisa indicated) Total axporta 1.534.6 1.93S.2 1.751.4 1.661.8 1.480.3 1.640.4 &a—axports 24.0 50.0 22.5 31.0 73.4 80.0 Pomastie amorts 1.510.6 1.885.2 1.728.9 1.630.8 1.406.9 1.560.4

Foals 888.0 1.039.4 985.3 908.5 767.1 691.8 Cruda patrolaun Volava (million barrals) 27.2 24.0 26.6 23.1 20.5 20.0 Valaa 511.1 593.5 561.8 464.3 367.4 330.0 Quit valaa 18.8 24.7 21.2 20.1 17.9 16.5 •atural gas liquids Volana (million barrals) 1.0 2.3 2.3 1.6 Valaa 17.2 37.4 36.8 17.2 Unit vslaa 17.7 16.4 16.0 10.7 Kafinad patrolaun products Volaaa (Billion barrals) 20.7 20.7 24.6 23.8 27.0 25.5 Valaa 376.9 445.9 406.3 406.8 362.9 344.7 Unit valaa 18.2 21.5 16.5 17.1 13.4 13.5

i^«^^« 291.3 2SL4 352.6 286.2 277.8 422.3 Anhydrous aamnia Vela** (thousand swtric tons) 1.625.9 1.542.0 1.639.3 1.659.5 1.423.8 1.700.0 Valaa 156.1 151.3 172.5 144.4 160.0 207.4 Unit valaa 96.0 98.1 105.2 87.0 112.4 122.0 Oraa Volaw* (thousand aatric tons) 504.8 468.8 462.6 429.8 522.2 530.0 Valaa 56.8 58.1 71.7 59.6 €5.9 73.1 Unit vslaa 111.0 123.9 154.9 138.6 126.2 138.0 Matbanol Volts** (thousand awtric tons) 409.3 395.3 460.1 467.8 456.4 960.0 Valaa 58.1 53.8 82.4 47.9 41.3 126.7 Unit valaa 142.0 136.0 179.0 102.3 90.4 132.0 Othar chaaicals 21.1 23.3 26.1 34.4 10.6 15.0 Othar Products asLi 559.4 391.0 436.1 362.0 446.3 Staal products Volav* (thousand aatric tons) 507.1 591.5 550.5 584.0 597.4 650.0 Valaa 116.3 125.2 110.8 122.5 124.9 131.2 Unit valaa 229.3 211.7 201.3 209.8 209.0 201.9 Sugar Volama (thousand s»tric tons) 56.9 62.3 56.5 59.2 51.4 48.9 Valaa 29.8 30.4 31.1 32.9 30.5 25.4 Unit valaa 523.7 488.0 550.4 555.7 S92.8 530.0 Othar 185.2 403.7 249.1 280.7 206.7 289.6 Othar food products (axel, sugar) 48.2 55.1 59.1 55.1 63.4 58.8 Bavaragas & Tobacco 24.3 24.6 23.5 25.3 31.9 27.0 Othar Bsnafacturas (axel, staal) 98.1 144.1 99.1 138.8 59.4 65.9 Othar axports 14.6 180.0 47.4 61.5 52.0 137.9 Memorandom items Fuals and chaaicals 1.179.4 1.325.8 1.337.9 1.194.7 1.044.9 1.114.1 (parcantaga of total) (78.1) (70.3) (77.4) (73.3) (74.3) (71.4) •onfuals 622.6 S45.8 743.6 722.3 639.8 868.5 Cruda oil axports/production (in parcant) 55.6 43.5 49.3 40.6 39.0 96.1 Bonfual axport pricas (parcantaga changa) -3.4 2.5 9.9 -13.5 2.1 36.3 (In parcant of GDP)

Exports 35.5 38.2 33.0 30.6 31.7 33.8 Kon-oil axports 15.0 17.7 14.4 13.8 15.3 19.5

Sonrcas: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; Cantral Statistical Offica; and Fund staff astisuitas.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 139 - STATISTICAL AFPEHDIX

Tabla 80. Trinidad end Tobago: Sunnary of Import*, c.i.f.

Pral. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

(In millions of U.S. dollars)

Total 1.208.4 1.118.3 1.436.9 1.199.5 1.165.1 1.204.0

Consunar goods 397.4 3S0.3 237.2 283.1 198.4 236.9 nondurable. 269.8 287.6 183.3 225.7 166.4 Food 190.9 180.5 145.3 146.3 113.7 Othsr 78.9 107.0 38.0 79.4 47.7 Durablas 127.6 92.7 53.8 57.4 37.0 Raw Mtarials and intazawdiata goods 404.7 426.0 727.8 561.2 503.3 445.0 Foals 69.5 32.8 51.6 186.6 275.6 106.7 Construction Mtarials 100.2 78.2 79.7 60.5 47.2 48.1 Othar 235.0 314.9 596.5 314.1 180.5 290.2 Capital goods 406.3 312.1 471.9 355.2 463.4 522.1 Transport aqoipnant 113.2 46.7 70.9 62.2 30.2 Oil and aUnins machinery 2.2 3.2 25.3 20.6 58.2 Otbar 290.8 262.2 375.7 272.4 375.0 Memorandom items Bon-fuals 1,138.9 1,085.5 1,385.4 1,012.9 889.5 1,002.5 Raw materials 335.2 393.1 676.3 374.6 227.7 338.3 {Parcantaga chanisa) Total 20.4 -7.5 28.5 -16.5 -2.9 3.3 Cooswsar goods 19.0 -4.3 -37.6 19.4 -29.9 19.4 Raw Baterials and intermediate goods 45.0 5.2 70.9 -22.9 -10.3 -11.6 Capital goods 3.9 -23.2 51.2 -24.7 30.5 12.7 (In par cant of total) Consi»sr goods 32.9 34.0 16.5 23.6 17.0 19.7 Raw materials and intermediate goods 33.5 38.1 50.7 46.8 43.2 96.9 Capital goods 33.6 27.9 32.8 29.6 39.7 43.4 (In percent of GDP) Constaaar goods 9.2 7.5 4.5 5.2 4.2 4.9 Raw materials and intermediate goods 9.4 8.4 13.7 10.3 10.8 9.2 Capital goods 9.4 6.2 8.9 6.5 9.9 10.8 Isiport unit values (percentage changa) 2.5 3.0 -1.1 0.1 -4.6 0.8

Soorcas: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; Central Statistical Off lea; and Fund staff astimatas.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 140 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 81. Trinidad and Tobago: Trad* with CARICQM Countries

fin millions of U.S. dollars)

Fral. Eat. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 I/

Exports, f.o.b. By country 244.2 272.0 253.0 257.4 328.2 187.7 Antigua 17.8 18.7 8. 15.6 14.5 9.9 Barbados 60.8 74.0 65. 64.1 72.2 35.1 Dominica 6.9 9.1 9. 10.5 9.9 5.3 Granada 15.3 20.2 21. 21.2 28.4 12.2 Guyana 58.5 27.3 30. 42.3 59.2 25.9 Jamaica 24.4 56.6 41. 30.5 71.3 56.3 St. Lucia 24.6 25.5 28. 29.6 30.5 14.4 St. Vincent 12.0 15.7 18.2 18.1 20.7 11.8 Other g/ 23.9 24.9 28.7 25.1 21.5 16.8

By Product (SITC code) 3/ 244.2 272.0 253.0 257.4 328.2 Food, beverages, and tobacco €0. 1) 47.0 49.9 45. 46.9 60.1 Mineral fuels, lubricants (3) 91.3 101.6 88. 80.3 119.8 Chemicals (5) 19.1 23.2 26. 25.6 33.2 Manufactures (6) 51.7 S6.8 59. 64.4 70.0 Machinery and transport equipment (7) 8.9 10.6 11. 12.7 14.0 Miscellaneous manufactures (8) 13.2 25.2 18. 24.0 24.8 Other (2. 4, 9) 13.0 4.7 3. 3.5 6.3 Imports c.i.f.

By country 76.3 78.5 81.5 76.0 53. 24.8 A&tigna 0.3 1.3 1.4 2.8 0. — Barbados 20.1 17.7 25.5 20.5 18. 9.7 Domimica 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.9 . 0.9 Granada 2.8 4.5 1.5 0.8 . 0.1 Guyana 2.5 3.6 6.0 7.0 . 2.5 Jamaica 33.7 33.7 34.4 31.0 1 . 9.5 St. Lucia 3.0 3.6 2.4 1.6 .7 0.6 St. Vincent 7.4 8.4 4.8 5.4 .6 0.4 Other I/ 5.4 4.0 3.7 5.0 2.2 1.2 By product (SZTC coda) 76.3 78.5 81.5 76.0 53.1 Food, beverages, and Tobacco (0. 1) 16.1 16.0 19.2 23.6 13.3 Mineral fuels, lubricants (3) 4.2 1.2 2.2 1.8 1.0 Chemicals (5) 18.1 21.1 20.0 18.7 14.4 Manufactures (6) 21.7 20.5 17.2 17.3 14.3 Machinery and transport equipment (7) 3.4 4.5 5.8 6.7 3.3 Miscellaneous manufactures (8) 10.6 13.3 14.0 7.6 4.3 Other (2, 4. 9) 2.2 1.9 3.1 0.3 2.5

Sources: Central Statistical Office; Cantral Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; and Fund staff estimates.

I/ Refers to tha first half of 1994. 2/ Anguilla. Bahamas. Belize, Monsarrat. and St. Kitts and Hevis. 2/ Tha SZTC codas ara shown in parenthesis.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution STATISTICAL APPENDIX - 141 -

Table 82. Trinidad and Tobago: Indicas of tba Tarns of Trada i/

(1988-100)

Pral. E»t. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Donas tie axports VoloBa 104.1 115.8 117.3 115.7 109.7 117.0 (parcantaga ebansa) 4.1 11.2 1.3 -1.3 -5.3 6.7 VaJLaa 111.2 138.8 127.3 120.1 103.6 114.9 (pareantaga ebansa) 11.2 24.8 -8.3 -5.7 -13.7 10.9 Unit Valua 107.1 121.7 110.0 105.2 96.3 100.3 (pareantaga ehanga) 7.1 13.6 -9.6 -4.3 -8.5 4.2

Of vhieh: Foals VoliaM 94.3 85.9 96.9 90.5 90.4 88.8 (pareantaga ehanga) -5.7 -8.9 12.7 -6.5 -0.2 -1.7 ?«!»• 107.7 126.1 119.5 110.2 93.0 83.9 (parcantas* ehanga) 7.7 17.0 -5.2 -7.8 -15.6 -9.8 Unit Vain. 113.4 142.8 117.2 115.7 97.9 90.0 (parcantaga ehanga) 13.4 25.9 -17.9 -1.3 -15.4 -8.1

Total imports VolM 117.9 105.6 136.8 114.7 113.9 116.1 (parcantaga ehanga) 17.9 -10.5 29.6 -16.2 -0.8 1.9 *«la« 120.4 111.4 143.1 119.5 116.0 119.8 (pareantaga ehanga) 20.4 -7.5 28.5 -16.5 -2.9 3.3 Unit Valna 102.5 105.5 104.3 104.0 101.8 103.2 (pareantaga ehanga) 2.5 3.0 -1.1 -0.4 -2.1 1.4

Terms of trade 101.2 104.5 115.3 105.4 94.6 97.2 (pareantaga ehanga) 4.5 10.3 -8.6 -4.0 -6.5 2.7

Sources: central Bank of Trinied and Tobago; Central Statical office; and Fund staff estimates. 1/ Expressed in U.S, dollsr terms.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 142 - STATISTICAL APPEHDIX

Tabl* 83. Trinidad and Tobago: Xndicas of Volume, Valua and Unit Vain* of Salactad Exports

(1988-100)

Pral. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Cruda oil VoluM 103.8 91.6 101.3 88.2 78.2 76.3 Valna 124.2 144.3 136.6 112.9 89.3 80.2 Quit Vain* 119.7 157.5 134.8 128.0 114.1 105.1

Batural gas liquid* (1992 - 100) VolxsM — — 100.0 101.0 70.0 Valna — — — 100.0 98.5 45.7 Unit Valua — — — 100.0 97.5 65.3

Bafiaad patrolaun products VoluM 87.0 87.0 103.5 100.1 113.4 115.9 Valna 91.2 107.9 98.3 98.5 87.8 83.4 Unit Valua 104.9 124.1 95.0 98.4 77.4 72.0

Ammonia VoltBM 118.2 112.1 119.1 120.6 114.4 123.5 Valna 114.0 110.5 126.0 105.5 112.0 149.0 Unit Valna 96.5 98.6 105.7 87.4 97.9 120.6

Una Volaaa 91.4 84.9 83.8 77.9 92.8 96.9 Valtw 78.1 80.9 99.9 83.0 88.5 100.6 Unit Valaa 85.4 95.3 119.2 106.6 95.4 103.8

Mathanol Voliaa 108.4 104.7 121.8 123.9 120.9 254.2 Valtw 83.2 77.0 117.9 68.5 59.1 175.9 Unit Vain* 76.8 73.5 96.8 55.3 48.9 69.2 Bugar Volun* 111.4 121.9 110.6 115.9 100.6 93.9 V«ln* 113.3 115.6 118.3 125.1 115.9 96.7 ttoitValaa 101.8 94.8 106.9 108.0 115.2 103.0

Staal products VoliM 121.9 142.2 132.3 140.4 143.6 156.2 Valu* 129.0 138.9 122.9 135.9 138.5 145.5 UnitVala* 105.8 97.7 92.9 96.8 96.4 93.2

Memorandom items Avara** spot prica fox thraa ezudas (US$/barral) I/ 17.2 22.1 18.3 18.2 16.1 15.2 Rayyl^y unl^lfi^ll g**ol ifl^ (U.S. cants/U.S. gallon) g/ 55.8 71.1 63.5 57.5 S0.9 49.1

Soorcas: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; Cantral Statistical OCfica; and Fund staff astiaatas.

I/ Avwraga spot prica of U.K. iorth Saa Brant. Dubai Fatah Light, and Alaska Horth Slopa. 2/ Spot prica. U.S. Gulf Coast.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 143 - STATISTICAL APPEHDDC

Table 84. Trinidad and Tobago: Outstanding External Public Debt by Borrower, Lender, and Maturity

(In millions of U.S. dollars)

Prel. June 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

Public sector 2,401.1 2,519.9 2.438.0 2,215.2 2,096.0 2,017.0

Central Government 1,452.2 1,539.5 1,536.6 1,470.7 1,494.7 1,452.7 By leader Bilateral agencies 217.2 361.0 373.0 377.6 359.6 367.6 Multilateral agencies 37.7 64.2 79.4 105.4 166.4 173.4 World Bank 13.0 29.0 26.1 29.4 51.4 50.4 IADB 25.0 34.1 52.2 75.4 114.4 122.4 EZB 1.1 1.1 Financial institutions 657.3 670.4 672.4 635.—1 576.—1 557.—1 Bonds 540.0 443.9 411.8 352.6 392.6 354.6 By maturity Medial-term I/ 766.0 677.0 558.0 484.0 526.0 481.0 Long-term £/ 685.0 862.0 978.0 987.0 969.0 972.0

Bonfinancial public sector 672.4 549.4 419.4 352.5 327.2 344.2 By lander Bilateral agencies 185.0 140.0 114.3 87.3 80.3 80.3 Multilateral agencies 51.0 46.0 66.9 95.9 115.9 131.9 World Bank 4.0 0.3 2.0 2.0 IADB 25.0 56.0 81.—0 100.—0 COB 4.—0 4.—0 4.0 6.0 6.0 6.0 CXB 13.0 14.0 12.0 13.0 11.0 11.0 Other 30.0 29.7 23.9 18.9 17.9 14.9 Financial institutions 373.3 314.3 217.3 164.0 131.0 123.0 Other 63.1 47.1 20.9 5.3 9.0 By Mturity — Medium-term y 283.0 181.0 101.0 48.0 28.0 29.0 Long-tan g/ 389.0 369.0 318.0 304.0 299.0 315.0

Financial public sector 276.5 431.0 482.0 392.0 274.0 220.0 Of which: Central Bank 260.4 401.8 454.8 359.8 241.8 187.8 By leader Multilateral agencies 221.6 359.2 415.2 318.6 190.6 156.6 IMF 204.8 329.5 384.9 282.3 154.9 116.5 CDB 3.0 10.6 12.0 13.0 12.0 12.0 EZB 14.0 21.5 19.0 22.0 22.0 22.0 Other -0.1 -2.4 -0.7 1.3 1.7 6.2 Financial institutions 54.9 71.8 66.8 72.8 82.8 62.8 By aaturity Short-tea Medium-term £/ 260.—0 399.—0 452.—0 357.—0 239.—0 185.—0 Long-term 2/ 17.0 33.0 31.0 35.0 35.0 35.0

Sources: Ministry of Finance; Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; and Fund staff estimates. I/ Original maturity periods of 3-10 years. 2/ Original maturity periods of over 10 years.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution -144 - STATTSTTCAL APPERDTX

Table 85. Trinidad and Tobago: Public Sector External Debt by Creditor

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

CIn millions of U S dollars outstanding at end-i>eriod: unless otherwise indicated)

Total nubile sector Drawing. 285.5 252.7 133.3 252.3 305.0 353.7 Amortisation due 403.0 518.6 388.2 518.8 475.1 438.4 Rescheduling 244.0 275.0 123.0 70.0 — Valuation adjustment -120.6 109.8 50.0 -26.3 50.9 77.0 Debt outstanding (end of period) 2,401.1 2,519.9 2.438.0 2.215.2 2.096.0 2.088.3

Central Goverment Drawings 32.2 58.5 24.2 152.1 215.0 239.0 Amortization due 228.3 319.3 209.1 270.8 240.0 274.6 Rescheduling 147.0 169.0 73.0 63.0 — — Valuation adjustment 10.8 179.2 109.0 -10.2 49.0 69.0 Debt outstanding 1.452.2 1.539.5 1.536.6 1.470.7 1.494.7 1.528.1 Bilateral agencies — Drawings 19.0 27.8 1.0 30.6 — — Amortisation 46.0 58.0 17.0 11.4 19.0 17.7 Rescheduling 46.0 58.0 3.0 — — — Valuation adjustment 112.2 116.0 25.0 -14.6 1.0 16.0 Debt outstanding 217.2 361.0 373.0 377.6 359.6 357.9 MnltilattTil acmries Drawings 8.0 29.0 19.2 20.8 65.0 39.0 Amortisation 5.0 5.9 6.0 6.2 5.0 5.0 Valuation adjustment — 3.4 2.0 11.4 1.0 1.0 Debt outstanding 37.7 64.2 79.4 105.4 166.4 201.4 Financial institutions Drawings 5.2 1.7 4.0 0.9 25.0 — Amortisation 126.0 125.0 134.0 103.2 128.0 116.4 Rescheduling 101.0 111.0 70.0 63.0 — — Valuation adjustment -38.7 25.4 62.0 2.0 44.0 38.0 Debt outstanding 657.3 670.4 672.4 635.1 576.1 4f7.7 Bonds

Drawings — — ~ 99.8 125.0 200.0 Amortisation 51.3 130.4 52.1 150.0 88.0 135.5 Valuation adjustment -62.7 34.4 20.0 -9.0 3.0 14.0 Debt outstanding 540.0 443.9 411.8 352.6 392.6 471.1

Public enterprises Cnonfinaneial) Drawings 102.3 35.4 27.1 45.0 36.0 110.5 Amortization 163.6 171.0 140.1 117.0 61.1 49.9 Rescheduling 97.0 106.0 50.0 7.0 — — Valuation adjustment -129.4 -93.4 -67.0 -1.9 -0.1 2.0 Debt outstanding 672.4 549.4 419.4 352.5 327.2 389.6 Bilateral agencies — Drawings 6.0 — — — 10.0 12.0 Amortisation 59.0 70.0 30.7 34.5 16.0 14.5 Rescheduling 56.0 64.0 9.0 — — — Valuation adjustment -39.8 -39.0 -4.0 7.5 -1.0 1.0 Debt outstanding 185.0 140.0 114.3 87.3 80.3 78.8 Hiil ti lateral agencies Drawings 1.6 0.4 25.3 44.0 26.0 89.5 Amortisation 4.6 5.0 5.4 5.6 6.0 10.1 Valuation adjustment — 1.6 -1.0 -9.4 — — Debt outstanding 51.0 48.0 66.9 95.9 115.9 195.1 Financial institutions — Drawings 93.2 35.0 — 1.0 — Amortisation 90.0 95.0 92.0 61.3 36.0 24.5 BasrhadnliTig 41.0 42.0 41.0 7.0 — — Valuation adjustment -55.9 -41.0 -46.0 — 3.0 1.0 Debt outstanding 373.3 314.3 217.3 164.0 131.0 107.5

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution -145 - STATISTICAL APPEHDIX

Table 85. Trinidad and Tobago: Public Sector External Debt by Creditor (Concluded)

Prel. Est. 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

(In Billions of U S dollars outstanding at end-period* unless otherwise indicated)

Suppliers9 credits Drawings 1.5 — 1.8 — — — Amortization 10.0 1.0 12.0 15.6 3.1 0.3 Valuation adjustment -33.7 -15.0 -16.0 — -2.1 — Debt outstanding 63.1 47.1 20.9 5.3 — -0.3 tin-PMIi IMjj_P «•• Drawings — — ~- •• •• °.0 Amortization — — ' — — — 0.3 Valuation adjustment — — — — — — Debt outstanding — — •• — — 8.7

Financial wMic sector Drawings 151.0 158.8 82.0 55.2 54.0 4.2 Amortization 11.1 28.3 39.0 131.0 174.0 113.9 Valuation adjustment -2.0 24.0 8.0 -14.2 2.0 6.0 Debt outstanding 276.5 431.0 482.0 392.0 274.0 170.3 Multilateral agencies — .Drawings 97.0 117.0 51.0 7.9 3.0 2.1 Amortization 3.1 3.4 4.0 90.0 133.0 71.3 Valuation adjustment -2.0 24.0 9.0 -14.5 2.0 6.0 Debt outstanding 221.6 359.2 415.2 318.6 190.6 127.4 Financial institutions — Drawings 54.0 41.8 31.0 47.3 51.0 2.1 Amortization 8.0 24.9 35.0 41.0 41.0 42.6 Valuation adjustment — — -1.0 0.3 — — Debt outstanding 54.9 71.8 66.8 73.4 83.4 42.9

Of which: Central Bank — Drawings 145.5 143.5 80.0 47.3 51.0 1.0 Amortization 8.0 24.9 35.0 128.0 170.0 113.9 Valuation adjustment — 22.8 8.0 -14.3 1.0 4.0 Debt outstanding 260.4 401.8 454.8 359.8 241.8 132.9 Multilateral agencies — Drawings 91.5 101.7 49.0 — — — Amortization — — g7.0 129.0 71.3 Valuation adjustment — 22.8 9.0 -14.0 1.0 4.0 Debt outstanding 205.5 330.0 388.0 287.0 159.0 91.7 Financial institutions — Drawings 54.0 41.8 31.0 47.3 51.0 1.0 Amortization 8.0 24.9 35.0 41.0 41.0 42.6 Valuation adjustment — — -1.0 -0.3 Debt outstanding 54.9 71.8 66.8 72.8 82.8 41.2

(In nercent of total external debt outstanding) Memorandom items Total public sector Bilateral agencies 16.8 19.9 20.0 21.0 21.0 20.9 Multilateral agencies 12.9 18.7 23.0 23.5 22 6 25 1 Financial institutions 45.2 41.9 39.2 39.4 37.7 31.0 Bonds 22.5 17.6 16.9 15.9 18.7 23.0 Other 2.6 1.9 0.9 0.2 —

Sources: Ministry of Finance; Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; and Fund staff estimates.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 146 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Tabla 86. Trinidad and Tobago: Public Sector External Dabt by Currency Composition

Pral. Juna 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

fin millions of U.S. dollars) Total 2.401 2.520 2.438 2.215 2.096 2.017 U.S. Dollar 1,111 1,166 1.101 1,112 1,268 1,240 Japanasa Ys& 767 747 705 608 484 459 Canadian Dollar 777665 Swiss Franc 75 2 — 2 2 3 Prancb Franc 65 72 61 52 46 49 Dratscha Mark 97 103 87 68 54 56 Found Starlins 57 68 65 55 54 54 SDR 205 327 385 284 156 123 Otter 17 28 27 28 26 28 CIn vereant of total) Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 U.S. Dollar 46.3 46.3 45.2 50.2 60.5 61.5 Japan*** Yan 31.9 29.6 28.9 27.4 23.1 22.8 Canadian Dollar 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 Swiss Franc 3.1 0.1 — 0.1 0.1 0.1 Francb Franc 2.7 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.4 Dmtscha Mack 4.0 4.1 3.6 3.1 2.6 2.8 Pound Starling 2.4 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.6 2.7 SDR 8.5 13.0 15.8 12.8 7.4 6.1 Othsr 0.7 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.4

Soorcss: Central Bank of Trinidad sod Tobago; and Fund staff astiaat«s.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 147 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 87. Trinidad and Tobago: Direction of Trade

(In millions of U.S. dollars)

Prel. Est. y 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994

I TiBimrts c i f

Total 1.208.4 1.118.3 1.436.9 1.199.5 1.165.1 451.1

United States 603.8 501.3 647.9 594.4 546.2 232.8 Canada 60.7 73.5 81.7 73. 69.4 30.0 CASXCOM countries 76.3 78.5 81.5 76. 53.1 24.8 Barbados 20.1 17.7 25.5 20. 18.4 9.7 Jaawica 33.7 33.7 34.4 31. 19. 9.5 Guyana 2.5 3.6 6.0 7. 6. 2.5 Other 20.0 23.5 15.7 17.5 8. 3.1 Other Caribbean £/ 39.2 24.8 22.6 15.7 14. European Onion and ETTA g/ 192.1 192.6 250.4 203.0 201. 80.5 United Kingdom 93.1 94.1 122.9 112.2 113. 44.6 France 16.2 17.5 18.1 14.7 19. 5.6 Nest Germany 24.6 30.6 32.1 31.8 27. 9.0 Other 58.3 50.4 77.3 44.3 40. 21.3 Latin America 93.6 182.3 204.0 135.2 187. 41.5 Japan 26.1 44.1 93.2 83.6 53. 28.7 lest of world 116.6 21.2 55.6 17.8 38. 12.8

11. Exports, f.o.b.

Total 1.534.6 1.935.2 1.751.4 1.661.8 1.480.3 834.1

United States 853.4 1.144.1 966.3 879.0 742.2 425. Canada 16.4 28.5 34.8 34.5 3,3.5 49. CARICCH countries 244.2 272.0 253.0 257.4 328.2 187. Barbados 60.8 74.0 65.5 64.1 72.2 35. Jamaica 24.4 56. 41.9 30.9 71.3 56. Guyana 58.5 27. 30.5 42.3 59.2 25. Other 100.6 114. 115.1 120.1 125.5 70.4 Other Caribbean £/ 200.5 203. 104.2 209.7 133.5 European Union and ETTA £/ 135.4 169. 184.1 98.8 75.8 66.8 Latin America 43.1 63. 153.1 132.9 118.2 85.2 <)•*•& 11.6 16. 25.3 19.3 18.2 4.3 Best of world J/ 29.9 37,1 30.6 30.2 30.7 14.4

Sources: Central Statistical Office; Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; and Fund staff estimates.

I/ First half of the year. 2/ Caribbean territories and possessions of European countries are included under other Caribbean. 3/ Includes bunkers and stores.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution - 148 - STATISTICAL APPENDIX

Table 88. Trinidad and Tobago: Exchange Rates I/

Nominal Real End Period Period Average Effective Effective TT$ Per TT$ Per TT$ Per TT$ Per Exchange Exchange US$ SDR US$ SDR Rate Rate £/

(1980 - 100) 1988 4.250 5.719 3.844 5.166 64.9 100.8 1989 4.250 5.585 4.250 5.448 60.2 99.4 1990 4.250 6.046 4.250 5.766 60.2 99.4 1991 4.250 6.079 4.250 5.814 59.3 101.0 1992 4.250 5.844 4.250 5.986 59.7 103.5 1993 5.834 7.986 5.351 7.472 50.4 93.5 1991 I 4.250 5.722 4.250 6.012 57.2 98.4 II 4.250 5.587 4.250 5.687 59.9 102.9 III 4.250 5.814 4.250 5.682 60.3 102.4 IV 4.250 6.079 4.250 5.885 59.6 100.3 19921 4.250 5.830 4.250 5.901 60.0 101.9 II 4.250 6.083 4.250 5.908 60.0 102.5 III 4.250 6.260 4.250 6.174 58.2 101.3 IV 4.250 5.844 4.250 5.965 60.9 106.8 19931 4.250 5.940 4.250 5.850 62.1 109.9 II 5.691 8.042 5.764 8.143 47.0 86.5 III 5.737 8.159 5.708 8.009 46.2 87.8 IV 5.834 7.986 5.800 8.080 46.1 89.6 1994 I 5.822 8.303 5.865 8,139 45.3 88.4 II 5.896 8.580 5.956 8.430 44.3 86.4 III 5.891 8.645 5.883 8.580 43.6 85.3

Sources: Central Bank of Trinidad and Tobago; IMF, International Financial Statistics; and Fund staff estimates. I/ Mid-point rates. 2J Adjusted by relative inflation rates (as measured by consumer price indices) in Trinidad and Tobago and its major trading partners; an increase is an appreciation.

©International Monetary Fund. Not for Redistribution