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Report on the Bioeconomic Modelling of Kapenta Fisheries on Lake Kariba

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Report on the Bioeconomic Modelling of Kapenta Fisheries on Lake Kariba Publication 22 REPORT ON THE BIOECONOMIC MODELLING OF KAPENTA FISHERIES ON LAKE KARIBA Kinadjian Lionel - Mwula Charles Nyikahadzoi Kefasi - Songore Newman REPORT/RAPPORT: SF-FAO/2014/22 Report on the Bioeconomic Modelling of Kapenta Fisheries on Lake Kariba GCP/RAF/466/EC SmartFish Project Kinadjian Lionel, Mwula Charles, Nyikahadzoi Kefasi & Songore Newman. 2014. Report on the Bioeconomic Modelling of Kapenta Fisheries on Lake Kariba. Report/Rapport: SF-FAO/2014/22 March 2014/Mars 2014. SmartFish Programme of the Indian Ocean Commission, FAO Fisheries Management component, Ebene, Mauritius. The designations employed and the presentation of material in this information product do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) concerning the legal or development status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. The mention of specific companies or products of manufacturers, whether or not these have been patented, does not imply that these have been endorsed or recommended by FAO in preference to others of a similar nature that are not mentioned. The views expressed in this information product are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of FAO. The contents of this publication are the sole responsibility of the author(s) and can in no way be taken to reflect the views of the European Union © FAO 2014 FAO encourages the use, reproduction and dissemination of material in this information product. Except where otherwise indicated, material may be copied, downloaded and printed for private study, research and teaching purposes, or for use in non-commercial products or services, provided that appropriate acknowledgement of FAO as the source and copyright holder is given and that FAO’s endorsement of users’ views, products or services is not implied in any way. All requests for translation and adaptation rights, and for resale and other commercial use rights should be made via www.fao.org/contact- us/licence-request or addressed to [email protected]. FAO information products are available on the FAO website (www.fao.org/publications) and can be purchased through publications- [email protected]. For more information, please contact [email protected]. 3 Acknowledgments A lot of people contributed in this work. The authors would like to especially express their thanks to all the Kapenta producers who were extremely courteous in their responses to many probing questions and many of whom provided detailed information about their business as part of the economic survey. Many other people in Zambia and Zimbabwe, including staff from the FAO-SmartFish Project and FAO Representatives in Zimbabwe and Zambia helped with the preparation of this study and we are most grateful. 4 Executive summary This work on the bioeconomic modelling of the Kapenta fishery on Lake Kariba was conducted as part of a process of joint fisheries management of the fishery between the Governments of Zimbabwe and Zambia, and was supported by the IOC-SmartFish Project under its Fisheries management component (UNFAO). The first part of the report provides an overview of the Kapenta fishery: information about the bioecology of this resource; harvesting systems in operation on the Lake; management systems in both countries; as well as some elements of processing and marketing. The second part concerns the biological modelling. A summary of the work that has already been done is provided, together with an assessment of available data. Based on the information available, the dynamic population model was chosen and used (surplus production model of Fox 1970). Thereafter, the results of the biological modelling are presented and discussed. The third section of the report concerns the development of the economic part of the model. Previous economic assessments of Kapenta fisheries have been summarized. The results of the Economic Survey, carried out in 2013 to support the bioeconomic modelling exercise, are put forward. Assumptions and analyses to develop the economic part of the model (modelling demand and costs) are also presented in detail. Finally, the fourth section of the document details the bioeconomic model: the way it works and its results. This bioeconomic modelling exercise shows that in 2011, the Kapenta resource was overexploited with an excess of fishing effort of about 40 percent. Fisheries were operating almost at a situation of open-access equilibrium where the rent of the resource is fully dissipated. As a consequence, the fishing industry is achieving very poor economic returns and faced with numerous challenges, is also demonstrating a low level of sustainability. Other main findings of this report concern the overall performance of the Kapenta fishery: the potential of wealth for economic growth, in terms of rent (estimated at approximately US $24 million per year), is completely lost for the economy of both countries; Kapenta resource productivity and thus fisheries production is negatively affected due to overexploitation, in turn leading to a negative impact on the food security status of those consumers who strongly depend on Kapenta in their diet. The fisheries generate a substantial amount of ‘on-board’ work (crew), however, remuneration for this type of labour tends to be very low compared to national wage standards. Furthermore, lower levels of production have no doubt had a negative impact on employment in Kapenta processing activities that take place along the lakeshore. This situation requires further study, during the Bioeconomic Working Group, and should be based on information provided by the industry on processing activities. In addition to the diagnosis of the Kapenta fisheries and the economic situation of the industry in 2011, this report illustrates the potential of the model in terms of simulation for management purposes and its prospects for development. 5 The main recommendations of this study concern how to improve the bioeconomic model that has been developed. Thus these recommendations are mainly focused on the need to improve the information necessary feed and to develop the model. Recommended approaches will require strengthening partnerships with the industry. 6 Résumé exécutif Ce travail de modélisation bio économique de la pêcherie de Kapenta sur le Lac Kariba a été réalisé dans le cadre d'un processus de gestion conjoint de cette pêcherie entre le Gouvernement du Zimbabwe et celui de la Zambie. Il a été appuyé par le Projet COI- SmartFish, sous la composante FAO Gestion des Pêches. Une première partie du rapport décrit succinctement la pêcherie : les connaissances sur la bio écologie de cette ressource, les systèmes d'exploitation mis en œuvre sur le Lac, le système de gestion dans les deux Pays, ainsi que des éléments sur la commercialisation et les marchés du Kapenta. La deuxième partie concerne la modélisation biologique. Un résumé des travaux qui ont déjà été faites est donné, ainsi que l'évaluation des données disponibles. Selon les informations disponibles un modèle dynamique des populations a été choisi et utilisé (modèle global de Fox – 1970). Les résultats de la modélisation biologique sont présentés et discutés. Le troisième chapitre du rapport concerne le développement de la partie économique du modèle. Les évaluations économiques antérieures de la pêcherie de Kapenta ont été résumées. Les résultats de l’enquête économique réalisée en 2013 en appui à cet exercice de modélisation bioéconomiques sont restitués. Les hypothèses et les analyses pour développer la partie économique du modèle (modélisation de la demande et des coûts) sont présentées de façon détaillée. La quatrième partie détaille enfin le modèle bio économique, son fonctionnement et ses résultats. Cet exercice de modélisation bio économique montre qu'en 2011, la ressource de Kapenta est surexploitée avec un excès d’'effort de pêche de 40% environ. La pêcherie se trouve presque à la situation d'équilibre de libre accès où la rente de la ressource est entièrement dissipée. En conséquence, l'industrie de la pêche atteint des performances économiques très faibles et se trouve dans une situation de difficultés fortes et de faible durabilité. Les autres principales conclusions concernent les performances de la pêcherie de Kapenta dans son ensemble: le potentiel de richesse pour la croissance économique en termes de rente (estimé à environ 24 $ US millions par an) est complètement perdu pour l'économie des deux pays, la productivité de la ressource Kapenta et donc la production de la pêche sont affectée négativement en raison de la surexploitation, cela semble évidemment avoir un impact négatif sur la sécurité alimentaire des consommateurs qui dépendent fortement du Kapenta pour leur alimentation. La pêche génère bien sûr des emplois à bord (équipage des bateaux), mais la rémunération de ces emplois a tendance à être très faible comparativement par rapport aux normes nationales de salaires dans les deux pays. En outre, la baisse de la production a eu probablement un impact négatif sur l'emploi dans les activités de transformation du Kapenta qui ont lieu sur la rive du lac. Cela reste toutefois à évaluer plus précisément lors du Groupe de travail bioéconomique, selon notamment les informations à fournir par l'industrie sur les activités de transformation. 7 En plus du diagnostic de la pêcherie de Kapenta et de la situation économique de l'industrie en 2011,
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