Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 23, 1409–1429, 2019 https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-23-1409-2019 © Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License. Attributing the 2017 Bangladesh floods from meteorological and hydrological perspectives Sjoukje Philip1, Sarah Sparrow2, Sarah F. Kew1, Karin van der Wiel1, Niko Wanders3,4, Roop Singh5, Ahmadul Hassan5, Khaled Mohammed2, Hammad Javid2,6, Karsten Haustein6, Friederike E. L. Otto6, Feyera Hirpa7, Ruksana H. Rimi6, A. K. M. Saiful Islam8, David C. H. Wallom2, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh1 1Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute (KNMI), De Bilt, the Netherlands 2Oxford e-Research Centre, Department of Engineering Science, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK 3Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands 4Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA 5Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, The Hague, the Netherlands 6Environmental Change Institute, Oxford University Centre for the Environment, Oxford, UK 7School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK 8Institute of Water and Flood Management, Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka, Bangladesh Correspondence: Sjoukje Philip (
[email protected]) and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh (
[email protected]) Received: 10 July 2018 – Discussion started: 23 July 2018 Revised: 14 February 2019 – Accepted: 14 February 2019 – Published: 13 March 2019 Abstract. In August 2017 Bangladesh faced one of its worst change in discharge towards higher values is somewhat less river flooding events in recent history. This paper presents, uncertain than in precipitation, but the 95 % confidence inter- for the first time, an attribution of this precipitation-induced vals still encompass no change in risk.