AGGREGATE DEMAND and SUPPLY Also by B

Total Page:16

File Type:pdf, Size:1020Kb

AGGREGATE DEMAND and SUPPLY Also by B AGGREGATE DEMAND AND SUPPLY Also by B. Bhaskara Rao COINTEGRATION FOR THE APPLIED ECONOMIST (editor) THE ECONOMETRICS OF DISEQUILIBRIUM MODELS (co-author) Aggregate Demand and Supply A Critique of Orthodox Macroeconomic Modelling Edited by B. Bhaskara Rao Associate Professor and Director of Postgraduate Studies School ofEconomics University ofNew South Wales First published in Oreat Britain 1998 by MACMILLAN PRESS LTD Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire R021 6XS and London Companies and representatives throughout the world A catalogue record for this book is available from the British Library. ISBN 978-1-349-26295-3 ISBN 978-1-349-26293-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-349-26293-9 First published in the Uni ted States of America 1998 by ST. MARTIN'S PRESS, INC .. Scholarly and Reference Division, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, N.Y. 10010 ISBN 978-1-349-26295-3 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data Aggregate demand and supply : a critique of orthodox macroeconomic modelling I edited by B. Bhaskara Rao. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-349-26295-3 1. Demand (Economic theory) 2. Supply and demand. I. Bhaskara Rao, B., 1939- . HB842.E85 1998 338.5'21-DC21 97-18334 CIP Selection, editorial matter and Chapters I and 4 © B. Bhaskara Rao 1998 Chapters 2, 3, 5-11 inclusive © Macmillan Press Ltd 1998 Softcover reprintofthe hardcover Ist edition 1998 978-0-333-69147-2 All rights reserved. No reproduction, copy or transmission of this publication may be made without written permission. No paragraph of this publication may be reproduced, copied or transmitted save with written permission or in accordance with the provisions of the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988, or under the terms of any licence permitting limited copying issued by the Copyright Licensing Agency, 90 Tottenham Court Road, London W I P 9HE. Any person who does any unauthorised act in relation to this publication may be liable to criminal prosecution and civil claims for damages. The authors have asserted their rights to be identified as the authors of this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988. This book is printed on paper suitable for recycling and made from fully managed and sustained forest sources. 10987654 3 2 I 07 06 05 04 03 02 01 00 99 98 Contents Preface xi Notes on the Contributors xiii 1. Introduction 1 B. Bhaskara Rao 2. Aggregate Demand in Principles Textbooks Ken McCormick and Janet M. Rives 2.1 Introduction 11 2.2 Current Textbook Presentations 11 2.3 Other Effects of Price Changes 17 2.4 Additional Considerations 19 2.5 The Need for Alternatives 21 3. Aggregate Demand Curves: A Guide to Use and Abuse Revisited Peter H. Hall and Malcolm L. Treadgold 3.1 Introduction 25 3.2 The Conventional Curve 26 3.3 Problems with the Conventional Approach 28 3.3.1 The Volume of Real Aggregate Demand 28 3.3.2 The Measurement of Excess Demand/Supply 30 3.3.3 Interdependence of Aggregate Demand and Supply 31 vi Contents 3.4 Two Alternatives 33 3.4.1 Rowan's Curve 33 3.4.2 Corden's Constant-MV Curve 39 3.5 Conclusion 42 4. What is the Matter with Aggregate Demand and Supply? B. Bhaskara Rao 4.1 Introduction 45 4.2 Aggregate Demand, Supply and the ISLM Model 46 4.3 The Neo Classical Version 56 4.4 The Keynesian Approach 60 4.5 Conclusions 65 5. Walrasian, Non-Walrasian and Post-Walrasian Perspectives on the ADAS Model: Theoretical and Pedagogical Implications Ralph C. Allen and Jack H. Stone 5.1 Introduction 67 5.2 Institutional Environment 68 5.3 Institutional Environment Behind ISLM 70 5.4 Inconsistencies in ADAS and Proposed Alternatives 72 5.5 Post-Walrasian Coordination in ADAS 76 5.6 Conclusion 80 Contents vii 6. The ADAS Model: Two into One Won't Go Roy H. Grieve 6.1 Introduction 83 6.2 The Textbook Model 84 6.3 Two Theories, One Model: No Go 88 6.4 The Root of the Problem 90 6.5 Conclusion 93 6.6 Postscript 94 7. Defending ADAS: A Perspective on the ADAS Controversy Peter Kennedy 7.1 Introduction 95 7.2 The Rise of ADAS 95 7.3 No Internal Inconsistency 97 7.4 ADAS Can be Confusing 99 7.5 Dynamics 102 7.6 Conclusion 104 Appendix to Chapter 7: Survey Instrument 105 8. Theoretical Inconsistencies in the ADAS Model: Can the Model be Rehabilitated? T. Windsor Fields and William R. Hart 8.1 Introduction 107 8.2 The Textbook ADAS Model 110 8.3 The Aggregate Demand Curve 112 8.4 A Theoretically Consistent ADAS Model 116 8.5 Short Run Aggregate Demand 126 viii Contents 8.6 Price Level and Interest Rate Determination in ADAS Model 128 8.7 Conclusion 135 9. Acceptable and Unacceptable Dirty Pedagogy: The Case of ADAS David Colander and Peter Sephton 9.1 Introduction 137 9.2 What the ADAS Model is Supposed to Accomplish 138 9.3 Problems with ADAS Analysis 138 9.4 Macro Policy Model 142 9.4.1 The Renaming of the AED Curve 143 9.4.2 Using an Aggregate Supply Path Rather than a Supply Curve 144 9.5 The Aggregate Supply Path Alternative 151 9.6 The More Limited Applicability of the Macro Policy Model 152 9.7 Summary 153 10 Aggregate Demand and Supply Analysis: A Story in the Wrong Language John W. Nevile 10.1 Introduction 155 10.2 Language of General Equilibrium Comparative Statics 157 10.3 Marshallian Analysis versus General Equilibrium 162 10.4 Not only the Wrong Language but an Unfamiliar Dialect 166 10.5 A Possible Alternative 168 10.6 Conclusion 174 Contents ix 11 A Simple Analysis of Price and Output Determination: A Model with Imperfect Competition Corrado Benassi, Alessandra Chirco and Caterina Colombo 11.1 Introduction 177 11.2 Aggregate Demand and Supply Under Imperfect Competition 180 11.3 The Role of Wage Rigidities 182 11.4 A Macromodel of Imperfect Competition 185 11.4.1 Firm's Behaviour 185 11.4.2 Union's Behaviour 187 11.5 Aggregate Behaviour of Firms and Unions 189 11.6 Equilibrium Under Full Nominal Flexibility 191 11.6.1 Determination and Properties of Equilibrium 191 11.6.2 Aggregate Demand and Aggregate Supply Under Full Flexibility 195 11.7 Equilibrium Under Nominal Rigidities 195 11.7.1 Equilibrium Under Nominal Wage Rigidity 297 11.7.2 Aggregate Demand and Supply Under Nominal Wage Rigidity 198 11.7.3 Equilibrium Under Nominal Price Rigidity 200 11.8 Concluding Remarks 202 Appendix to Chapter 11 205 Bibliography 209 Index 223 Preface The aggregate demand and supply model is extensively used in the current macroeconomics textbooks to explain the working of the economy, to evaluate rival macroeconomic paradigms and to illustrate the effects and policy implica­ tions of changes in the exogenous variables. However, many teachers are becoming uncomfortable with its logical foun­ dations and the claim that it is general and encompasses al­ ternative macroeconomic paradigms. Although there have been severe criticisms of this model, textbook writers were reluctant to develop more convincing alternative expository models. That the textbook aggregate demand and supply model has logical pitfalls was pointed out by Rowan (1975), Hall and Treadgold (1982), Hansen, McCormick and Rives (1985) and Rao (1991). Subsequently several important papers have been published in various issues of the A us­ tralian Economic Papers and the Southern Economic Jour­ nal. None of this had any significant effect on the textbook model and the way we teach macroeconomics. However, more recently three important papers by Colander (1995), Nevile and Rao (1996) and Grieve (1996) have once again raised doubts about the logical soundness of the derivation of the aggregate demand and supply model. These recent publications have encouraged me to bring out this collec­ tion of essays by requesting others, with similar concerns about the logical foundations of the basic macro model, to explore for some logically consistent alternative models for Xli Preface use in the textbooks and classrooms. It is hoped that this collection of essays will encourage many other teachers to extend our efforts. I am grateful to all the contributors to this volume for readily accepting my request to elaborate their earlier criticisms and suggest alternative models that may even­ tually replace the current unsatisfactory textbook macro model. I thank Tim Farmiloe, Publishing Director of the Macmillan Press, for his appreciation and timely approval of this project; Sunder Katwala, Commissioning Editor, and Karen Brazier, Editorial Services Controller of the Macmil­ lan Press for their help in preparing the final version of this book and Laser Campus, Madras, and Teresa Attfield, Au­ dio Visual Unit, University of New South Wales, for help with the diagrams and my son, Pankaj, for proof reading parts of the book. My final thanks go to John Nevile and John Lodewijks for helpful discussions on some method­ ological issues; to Roy Grieve and Malcolm Treadgold for valuable suggestions and corrections; to Kevin Fox for his timely help at a crucial stage in the production of this book; to my graduate students, Debarshi Nandy and Tania Dutta, for help with the preparation of the final version of this book and the index, and to the editors and publishers of the A us­ tralian Economic Papers for permission to use previously published material in Chapters 3 and 4. B.B.Rao Sydney Notes on the Contributors Ralph C. Allen is Professor of Economics and currently Head of the Department of Economics and Marketing at Valdosta State University, Valdosta, Georgia, USA.
Recommended publications
  • Unemployment, Aggregate Demand, and the Distribution of Liquidity
    Unemployment, Aggregate Demand, and the Distribution of Liquidity Zach Bethune Guillaume Rocheteau University of Virginia University of California, Irvine Tsz-Nga Wong Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond February 13, 2017 Abstract We develop a New-Monetarist model of unemployment in which distributional considerations matter. Households who lack commitment are subject to both employment and expenditure risk. They self- insure by accumulating real balances and, possibly, claims on firms profits. The distribution of liquidity is endogenous and responds to idiosyncratic risks and monetary policy. Despite the ex-post heterogeneity our model can be solved in closed form in a variety of cases. We show the existence of an aggregate demand channel according to which the distribution of workers across employment states, and their incomes in those states, affects the distribution of liquid wealth and firms’ profits. An increase in unemployment benefits or wages has a positive effect on aggregate demand and can lead to higher employment. Moreover, an increase in productivity has a multiplier effect on firms’ revenue. JEL Classification Numbers: D83 Keywords: unemployment, money, distribution. 1 Introduction We develop a New-Monetarist model of unemployment in which liquidity and distributional considerations matter. Our approach is motivated by the strong empirical evidence that household heterogeneity in terms of income and wealth, together with liquidity constraints, affect aggregate consumption and unemployment (e.g., Mian and Sufi, 2010?; Carroll et al., 2015). There is a recent literature that formalizes search frictions and liquidity constraints in goods markets that reduce the ability of firms to sell their output, their incentives to hire, and ultimately the level of unemployment (e.g., Berentsen, Menzio, and Wright, 2010; Michaillat and Saez, 2015).
    [Show full text]
  • AS-AD and the Business Cycle
    Chapter AS-AD and the Business Cycle CHAPTER OUTLINE 1. Provide a technical definition of recession and describe the history of the U.S. business cycle and the global business cycle. A. Dating Business-Cycle Turning Points B. U.S. Business-Cycle History C. Recent Cycles 2. Explain the influences on aggregate supply. A. Aggregate Supply Basics 1. Why the AS Curve Slopes Upward a. Business Failure and Startup b. Temporary Shutdowns and Restarts c. Changes in Output Rate 2. Production at a Pepsi Plant B. Changes in Aggregate Supply 1. Changes in Potential GDP 2. Changes in Money Wage Rate and Other Resource Prices 3. Explain the influences on aggregate demand. A. Aggregate Demand Basics 1. The Buying Power of Money 2. The Real Interest Rate 3. The Real Prices of Exports and Imports B. Changes in Aggregate Demand 1. Expectations 2. Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy 3. The World Economy C. The Aggregate Demand Multiplier 4. Explain how fluctuations in aggregate demand and aggregate supply create the business cycle. A. Aggregate Demand Fluctuations B. Aggregate Supply Fluctuations C. Adjustment Toward Full Employment 710 Part 10 . ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS CHAPTER ROADMAP What’s New in this Edition? Chapter 29 is now the first chapter in which the students en‐ counter the AS‐AD model. This chapter now uses some of the material from the second edition’s Chapter 23 introduc‐ tion to AS‐AD to explain the beginning about aggregate supply and aggregate demand. The connection between the AS‐AD model and business cycle has been rewritten and made even more straightforward for the students.
    [Show full text]
  • Some Answers FE312 Fall 2010 Rahman 1) Suppose the Fed
    Problem Set 7 – Some Answers FE312 Fall 2010 Rahman 1) Suppose the Fed reduces the money supply by 5 percent. a) What happens to the aggregate demand curve? If the Fed reduces the money supply, the aggregate demand curve shifts down. This result is based on the quantity equation MV = PY, which tells us that a decrease in money M leads to a proportionate decrease in nominal output PY (assuming of course that velocity V is fixed). For any given price level P, the level of output Y is lower, and for any given Y, P is lower. b) What happens to the level of output and the price level in the short run and in the long run? In the short run, we assume that the price level is fixed and that the aggregate supply curve is flat. In the short run, output falls but the price level doesn’t change. In the long-run, prices are flexible, and as prices fall over time, the economy returns to full employment. If we assume that velocity is constant, we can quantify the effect of the 5% reduction in the money supply. Recall from Chapter 4 that we can express the quantity equation in terms of percent changes: ΔM/M + ΔV/V = ΔP/P + ΔY/Y We know that in the short run, the price level is fixed. This implies that the percentage change in prices is zero and thus ΔM/M = ΔY/Y. Thus in the short run a 5 percent reduction in the money supply leads to a 5 percent reduction in output.
    [Show full text]
  • Aggregate Demand and the Dynamics of Unemployment
    Aggregate Demand and the Dynamics of Unemployment Edouard Schaal Mathieu Taschereau-Dumouchel New York University The Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania June 3, 2016 Abstract We introduce an aggregate demand externality into the Mortensen-Pissarides model of equi- librium unemployment. Because firms care about the demand for their products, an increase in unemployment lowers the incentives to post vacancies which further increases unemploy- ment. This positive feedback creates a coordination problem among firms and leads to multiple equilibria. We show, however, that the multiplicity disappears when enough heterogeneity is introduced in the model. In this case, the unique equilibrium still exhibits interesting dynamic properties. In particular, the importance of the aggregate demand channel grows with the size and duration of shocks, and multiple stationary points in the dynamics of unemployment can exist. We calibrate the model to the U.S. economy and show that the mechanism generates ad- ditional volatility and persistence in labor market variables, in line with the data. In particular, the model can generate deep, long-lasting unemployment crises. JEL Classifications: E24, D83 1 1 Introduction The slow recovery that followed the Great Recession of 2007-2009 has revived interest in the long-held view in macroeconomics that episodes of high unemployment can persist for extended periods of time because of depressed aggregate demand. The mechanism seems intuitive: when firms expect lower demand for their products, they refrain from hiring and unemployment increases. In turn, as unemployment rises, aggregate income and spending decline, effectively confirming the low aggregate demand. In this paper, we propose a theory of unemployment and aggregate demand to investigate this mechanism.
    [Show full text]
  • Aggregate Supply and Unemployment
    Aggregate Supply Explain why the elasticity of the aggregate supply curve for an economy varies between infinity and zero (12) Are supply-side policies likely to be more effective than demand-side policies in reducing unemployment? (13) Aggregate supply (AS) measures the output of goods and services than an economy can supply at a given price level in a given time period. The output potential of the economy depends on (a) the stock of factor inputs available (b) the productivity of factor inputs (c) the pace of technological progress. The elasticity of aggregate supply is a measure of how responsive output is to changes in demand. Supply elasticity normally depends on (a) the degree of spare capacity in the economy (b) the time period involved (c) the amount of stocks that can be used to meet changes in demand There is a continuing debate about the elasticity of aggregate supply. Standard Keynesian theory assumes a perfectly elastic aggregate supply curve. Changes in aggregate demand lead to changes in the equilibrium level of national output - prices are assumed to be constant in the injections and withdrawals framework. Neo- classical economists argue that aggregate supply in independent of the price level. The AS curve is assumed to be vertical in the long run - and can shift following increases in the stock and productivity of factors of production. A synthesis view shows the elasticity of aggregate supply changing at different levels of output. These views are shown in the diagrams below. Price Level (P) SRAS1 AD1 AD2 Y1 Y2 Real National Output (Y) In the diagram above the short run aggregate supply curve is drawn as perfectly elastic.
    [Show full text]
  • Aggregate Demand by RENEE HALTOM
    JARGONALERT Aggregate Demand BY RENEE HALTOM hat determines how much the economy pro- cycles but as a workable prescription for how policymakers duces in any given period? One way to think should respond to them. This backfired when attempts to Wabout it is through the concept of aggregate continually boost aggregate demand worked a little too well, demand, along with a partner concept, aggregate supply. resulting in inflation. The lesson was that the economy can’t An aggregate demand curve displays the quantity of goods be pushed beyond its sustainable level of supply for long. and services that are demanded at every possible price level in But many economists continue to argue that economists the economy. The aggregate quantity of goods and services should counteract demand shortfalls in recessions. This is demanded generally is high when prices are low and low when what the 2009 fiscal stimulus law tried to do. And in the prices are high (the opposite being true for aggregate supply, aftermath of the Great Recession, Christina Romer, then which slopes upward). Where the two intersect is, in theory, head of the President’s Council of Economic Advisers, at the current level of gross domestic product (GDP). noted the presence of factors that Keynes might have agreed This theoretical framework can help economists think would be harmful to aggregate demand: a fall in wealth fol- through the causes of business cycles. For example, four com- lowing the 2007-2008 financial crisis, disruptions of credit, ponents of aggregate demand cause the aggregate demand shrinking government spending, and cautious spending from curve to shift outward when they increase: the amounts nervous consumers.
    [Show full text]
  • Macro-Economics of Balance-Sheet Problems and the Liquidity Trap
    Contents Summary ........................................................................................................................................................................ 4 1 Introduction ..................................................................................................................................................... 7 2 The IS/MP–AD/AS model ........................................................................................................................ 9 2.1 The IS/MP model ............................................................................................................................................ 9 2.2 Aggregate demand: the AD-curve ........................................................................................................ 13 2.3 Aggregate supply: the AS-curve ............................................................................................................ 16 2.4 The AD/AS model ........................................................................................................................................ 17 3 Economic recovery after a demand shock with balance-sheet problems and at the zero lower bound .................................................................................................................................................. 18 3.1 A demand shock under normal conditions without balance-sheet problems ................... 18 3.2 A demand shock under normal conditions, with balance-sheet problems ......................... 19 3.3
    [Show full text]
  • Deflation: Economic Significance, Current Risk, and Policy Responses
    Deflation: Economic Significance, Current Risk, and Policy Responses Craig K. Elwell Specialist in Macroeconomic Policy August 30, 2010 Congressional Research Service 7-5700 www.crs.gov R40512 CRS Report for Congress Prepared for Members and Committees of Congress Deflation: Economic Significance, Current Risk, and Policy Responses Summary Despite the severity of the recent financial crisis and recession, the U.S. economy has so far avoided falling into a deflationary spiral. Since mid-2009, the economy has been on a path of economic recovery. However, the pace of economic growth during the recovery has been relatively slow, and major economic weaknesses persist. In this economic environment, the risk of deflation remains significant and could delay sustained economic recovery. Deflation is a persistent decline in the overall level of prices. It is not unusual for prices to fall in a particular sector because of rising productivity, falling costs, or weak demand relative to the wider economy. In contrast, deflation occurs when price declines are so widespread and sustained that they cause a broad-based price index, such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI), to decline for several quarters. Such a continuous decline in the price level is more troublesome, because in a weak or contracting economy it can lead to a damaging self-reinforcing downward spiral of prices and economic activity. However, there are also examples of relatively benign deflations when economic activity expanded despite a falling price level. For instance, from 1880 through 1896, the U.S. price level fell about 30%, but this coincided with a period of strong economic growth.
    [Show full text]
  • AGGREGATE DEMAND and ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS Principles of Economics in Context (Goodwin, Et Al.), 2Nd Edition
    Chapter 24 AGGREGATE DEMAND AND ECONOMIC FLUCTUATIONS Principles of Economics in Context (Goodwin, et al.), 2nd Edition Chapter Overview This chapter first introduces the analysis of business cycles, and introduces you to the two stylized facts of the business cycle. The chapter then presents the Classical theory of savings-investment balance through the market for loanable funds. Next, the Keynesian aggregate demand analysis in the form of the traditional "Keynesian Cross" diagram is developed. You will learn what happens when there’s an unexpected fall in spending, and the role of the multiplier in moving to a new equilibrium. Chapter Objectives After reading and reviewing this chapter, you should be able to: 1. Describe how unemployment and inflation are thought to normally behave over the business cycle. 2. Model consumption and investment, the components of aggregate demand in the simple model. 3. Describe the problem that “leakages” present for maintaining aggregate demand, and the classical and Keynesian approaches to leakages. 4. Understand how the equilibrium levels of income, consumption, investment, and savings are determined in the Keynesian model, as presented in equations and graphs. 5. Explain how, in the Keynesian model, the macroeconomy can equilibrate at a less-than-full-employment output level. 6. Describe the workings of “the multiplier,” in words and equations. Key Terms Okun’s “law” behavioral equation “full-employment output” (Y*) marginal propensity to consume aggregate expenditure (AE) marginal propensity to save accounting identity paradox of thrift Chapter 24 – Aggregate Demand and Economic Fluctuations 1 Active Review Fill in the Blank 1. The macroeconomic goal that involves keeping the rate of unemployment and inflation at acceptable levels over the business cycle is the goal of .
    [Show full text]
  • Keynesian Economics by Alan S. Blinder Keynesian Economics Is A
    Keynesian Economics by Alan S. Blinder Keynesian economics is a theory of total spending in the economy (called aggregate demand) and of its effects on output and inflation. Although the term is used (and abused) to describe many things, six principal tenets seem central to Keynesianism. The first three describe how the economy works. 1. A Keynesian believes that aggregate demand is influenced by a host of economic decisions—both public and private—and sometimes behaves erratically. The public decisions include, most prominently, those on monetary and fiscal (i.e., spending and tax) policy. Some decades ago, economists heatedly debated the relative strengths of monetary and fiscal policy, with some Keynesians arguing that monetary policy is powerless, and some monetarists arguing that fiscal policy is powerless. Both of these are essentially dead issues today. Nearly all Keynesians and monetarists now believe that both fiscal and monetary policy affect aggregate demand. A few economists, however, believe in what is called debt neutrality—the doctrine that substitutions of government borrowing for taxes have no effects on total demand (more on this below). 2. According to Keynesian theory, changes in aggregate demand, whether anticipated or unanticipated, have their greatest short-run impact on real output and employment, not on prices. This idea is portrayed, for example, in Phillips curves that show inflation changing only slowly when unemployment changes. Keynesians believe the short run lasts long enough to matter. They often quote Keynes's famous statement "In the long run, we are all dead" to make the point. Anticipated monetary policy (that is, policies that people expect in advance) can produce real effects on output and employment only if some prices are rigid—if nominal wages (wages in dollars, not in real purchasing power), for example, do not adjust instantly.
    [Show full text]
  • The Aggregate Demand Effects of Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates
    The Aggregate Demand Effects of Short- and Long-Term Interest Rates∗ Michael T. Kiley Federal Reserve Board I develop empirical models of the U.S. economy that dis- tinguish between the aggregate demand effects of short- and long-term interest rates—one with clear “microfoundations” and one more loosely motivated. These models are estimated using government and private long-term bond yields. Estima- tion results suggest that both short- and long-term interest rates influence aggregate spending. The results indicate that the short-term interest rate has a larger influence on eco- nomic activity, through its impact on the entire term struc- ture, than term and risk premiums (for equal-sized movements in long-term interest rates). Potential policy implications are discussed. JEL Codes: E43, E44, E50. 1. Introduction The dominant modeling paradigm in macroeconomic models used for monetary policy analysis within the academic community ascribes a central role in aggregate demand determination to the expected path of short-term interest rates, with essentially no direct role for long-term interest rates (e.g., Woodford 2003). Dynamic stochas- tic general equilibrium (DSGE) models employed by many central banks around the world build on this structure and also often fail to distinguish between expected short-term interest rates and long- term interest rates (e.g., the discussion in Boivin, Kiley, and Mishkin ∗This research benefited from comments from colleagues in the Federal Reserve System. The views expressed herein are those of the author and should not be attributed to the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System or other mem- bers of its staff.
    [Show full text]
  • Keynes and Marx by Claudio Sardoni University of Rome “La Sapienza”
    Keynes and Marx by Claudio Sardoni University of Rome “La Sapienza” I. Introduction Soon after the publication of The General Theory, Keynes manifested his dissatisfaction with the ‘final product’ of the intellectual process which had started in 1931-32 and he stated an intention to re-cast his ideas in a clearer and more satisfactory way. Joan Robinson thought that starting from Marx, rather than orthodox economics, would have saved Keynes ‘a lot of trouble’ (1964: 96). The object of this chapter is to inquire into the possibility that Keynes could have re-written The General Theory by giving Marx more attention and more credit than he did in the 1936 edition of the book. The interest in this issue does not derive, however, from any evidence that Keynes changed his opinion of Marx after 1936: it remained highly critical. Such interest rather derives from the fact that, in the quest for a clearer formulation of his fundamental ideas, Keynes, in my opinion, could have chosen to go, at least partly, ‘back’ to the approach that he had followed earlier on in the process which led to the publication of The General Theory. In fact, at a relatively early stage (1933) of this process, Keynes’s analysis of a capitalist economy and his critique of the orthodox view had come close to Marx’s approach. Keynes soon abandoned his 1933 approach and, in The General Theory, he formulated the critique of orthodox economics in a different way from Marx. In the chapter, I argue that the reason for the change may be found in the fact that the economic theory criticised by Keynes was significantly different from the Ricardian theory to which Marx referred.
    [Show full text]