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Home , Allegiance Council, Day of Rage (Bahrain), Diriyah, Jeddah Economic Forum, Manama incident, Saudization

PROGRAM OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES SUMMER 2011

MIDDLE EAST PROGRAM SUMMER OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES 2011

Saudi Arabia in the Shadow of the Arab Revolt

My dissident feat so extraordinary in itself that Arab and David B. Ottaway, Saudi driver foreign commentators alike regard it as a Senior Scholar, asked a startling watershed in Arab history. Lasting change Woodrow Wilson International question: “What has yet to take place, however, in the ruling Center for Scholars and former Bureau do you think? Arab elite, and the fate of democracy remains Chief, Washington Post, Cairo Will it be reform uncertain. Still, the emergence of the vox or revolution populi in Arab politics has been so earth-shak- here?” I avoided ing in its ramifications that the term “revolu- an answer by asking him the same question in tion” seems justified in the eyes of hundreds return. He, too, demurred, saying only that he of millions of whose voices have never thought Saudis were better off than the people counted for anything. in and where, unexpectedly, Signs of even slight unrest in uprisings had toppled autocratic leaders in have become enough to send international oil lightning speed earlier in 2011. and stock markets into a tizzy and for good The term “revolution” has quickly taken reason. Beneath the vast desert of its Eastern hold in the Arab imagination to describe the Province lies a gigantic reservoir holding one exercise of a new-found people’s power in quarter of the world’s known oil reserves. imitation of the various “color revolutions” Saudi production capacity of 12.5 million that shook Eastern Europe after the collapse barrels a day is the largest of any producer, of the Soviet Union. So far, the main paral- giving it the moniker of the “central bank” of lel has been the ousting of unpopular leaders the oil world. Even after making up for much propped up by ubiquitous security services—a of the loss of strife-torn Libya’s output, the 1 MIDDLE EAST PROGRAM OCCASIONAL PAPER SERIES SUMMER 2011

About the Middle East Program

Director The Middle East Program was launched in February 1998 in light of Dr. Haleh Esfandiari increased U.S. engagement in the region and the profound changes sweeping across many Middle Eastern states. In addition to spotlighting Assistants day-to-day issues, the Program concentrates on long-term economic, social, Kendra Heideman and political developments, as well as relations with the . Mona Youssef The Middle East Program draws on domestic and foreign regional experts for its meetings, conferences, and occasional papers. Conferences and Special thanks meetings assess the policy implications of all aspects of developments Special thanks to Kendra within the region and individual states; the Middle East’s role in the interna- Heideman and Mona tional arena; American interests in the region; the threat of terrorism; arms Youssef for coordinating this proliferation; and strategic threats to and from the regional states. publication; Rachel Peterson and Laura Rostad of the The Program pays special attention to the role of women, youth, civil Middle East Program for society institutions, , and democratic and autocratic tendencies. In their editing assistance; the addition, the Middle East Program hosts meetings on cultural issues, includ- Design staff for designing the ing contemporary art and literature in the region. Occasional Paper Series; and • Current Affairs: The Middle East Program emphasizes analysis of cur- David Hawxhurst for taking rent issues and their implications for long-term developments in the region, the photograph. including: the events surrounding the uprisings of 2011 in the Middle East and its effect on economic, political, and social life in countries in the David Ottaway would like to region; the increased use of social media; the role of youth; Palestinian- thank his research assistant Israeli diplomacy; ’s political and nuclear ambitions; the drawdown Alice Bosley. of American troops in and and their effect on the region; violations; globalization; economic and political partnerships; and U.S. foreign policy in the region. • Gender Issues: The Middle East Program devotes considerable atten- tion to the role of women in advancing civil society and to the attitudes of governments and the clerical community toward women’s rights in the family and society at large. The Program examines employment patterns, education, legal rights, and political participation of women in the region. The Program also has a keen interest in exploring women’s increasing roles in conflict prevention and post-conflict reconstruction activities. • Islam, Democracy and Civil Society: The Middle East Program monitors the growing demand of people in the region for the transition to democ- ratization, political participation, accountable government, the rule of law, and adherence by their governments to international conventions, human rights, and women’s rights. It continues to examine the role of Islamic movements and the role of Islamic parties in shaping political and social developments and the variety of factors that favor or obstruct the expansion of civil society.

The following paper is part of a Middle East Program Occasional Paper Series featuring the work of our scholars and fellows. The opinions expressed herein are those of the author and do not reflect those of the Woodrow Wilson Center. 2 kingdom had spare capacity of three to four million barrels. Abdullah demanding elections and other reforms leading to a Oil speculators and traders ponder daily whether Saudi oil powerless constitutional monarchy. The more militant liber- will continue to be available and, if so, at what price. Former als had called for a “” in the streets on March 11 Saudi oil minister, Zaki Yamani, opined in early to increase popular pressure on the Saudi royal family. The April 2011 that serious unrest in the kingdom could see the king, now 87, had returned on February 24 from a three- price of a barrel of oil skyrocket to $300, crippling the world month stay in New York, where he had undergone a back economy. When the reported from Cairo operation for a herniated disc. His fitness to continue on the one day in early March that Saudi police had fired “on” Shiite throne was very much on the public mind, and hopes ran protesters in the Eastern Province city of , the price of high that he would announce a new government and at least oil jumped $3 within 12 minutes. partial elections for the appoint- A correspondent living in ed consultative Shura Council. filed a more cautious report Enjoying arguably the highest stating Saudi police had fired “over popularity ratings of any Arab the heads” of protesters to disperse Saudi liberals and leader, Abdullah had received a them. Even that version was so Islamists alike, inspired truly warm welcome aided by a disturbing to Saudi authorities that massive government public rela- they expelled the correspondent. by events in Cairo and tions campaign aimed at his glo- No wonder so many eyes remain rification. Immediately upon his fixed on the state of the kingdom’s Tunis, had delivered return, the king had offered $36 political health. billion in additional government petition after petition spending to relieve some of the to King Abdullah stress on the financially struggling * * * * * * middle class. demanding reforms The much ballyhooed “Day of In mid-March 2011, I visited the Rage” proved a bust. Organizers kingdom to make my own assess- leading to a powerless said they had signed up 17,000 ment of its stability in the midst of Saudis, on their page the political turmoil churning the constitutional monarchy. promoting the event, to partici- and lapping at Saudi pate. Only one protester turned borders. It was my fourth trip since out in Riyadh on March 11, the horrific 9/11 events and prob- though several hundred Shia had ably the 20th since I first started visiting there in 1976. This demonstrated the day before in Qatif. The government had time was my first, however, to visit the kingdom while hun- won hands down the test of loyalty to the king, after using dreds of thousands of pro-democracy protesters were in the every asset at its command to make sure it would. Not only streets in neighboring countries. In to the west, two had authorities made clear through the state-controlled media months of almost daily protests to force President Ali Saleh that participation was a ticket straight to jail, they had also from power had reduced his writ to the gates of the presiden- mobilized the powerful Wahhabi religious establishment to tial residence. To the east, the Shiite majority in had issue a fatwa, or Islamic decree, declaring public protests to gone from pressing for reforms to calling for the end of the be socially divisive, Western-inspired, religiously deviant, two-century old Sunni rule of the Al-Khalifa family. and thus haram, or strictly forbidden. Failure of the “Day Trouble was also brewing inside the kingdom, where I of Rage” reinforced the official conviction that Saudi Arabia found signs of social and political unrest similar to what remains fundamentally different from other Arab countries, Egypt and Tunisia had witnessed prior to their “revolutions.” enjoying a special immunity from the contagious pro-democ- Saudi liberals and Islamists alike, inspired by events in Cairo racy bug skipping from one country to another. and Tunis, had delivered petition after petition to King

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The Saudi royal outlook on the kingdom’s place in the In the Saudi mind, both religion and oil have made the Arab firmament begins with a belief in its exceptionalism, kingdom exceptional. just as many American historians and politicians hold about There are other elements to the al-Saud notion of excep- the United States. Both point to their countries’ special tionalism, namely the fact that the kingdom was never history, geography, and enormous natural resources that colonized by a European power as other Arab countries were. have combined to forge unique characteristics. The Saudi Modern-day Saudi Arabia was not an invention of Western case relies heavily on the kingdom’s religious roots as the powers fighting over the spoils of their Arab conquests, but the birthplace of Islam and the loca- result of conquests by an indigenous tion of its two holiest sites, as tribal leader, Abdulaziz bin Saud. well as the monarchy’s Islamic This special history allowed the foundation. The first Saudi state kingdom to escape the penetration under the al-Saud was The Saudi royal family of Western culture and values and founded in 1744. Right from the is convinced that if preserve its Arab and Islamic purity. beginning, it was based on an Not only did Western influences fail alliance between a tribal leader, it holds steadfast, to penetrate, but so did all secular Mohammed bin Saud, and a reli- ideologies roiling the Arab world gious leader, Sheikh Mohammed the monarchy can since the 1952 Egyptian Revolution bin Abdulwahab, after whom the of Gamal Abdel Nasser, includ- strict Saudi fundamentalist brand withstand the current ing Arab nationalism and Arab of Salafism known as socialism. Subsequently, the Saudis is named. The Saudi argument gale-force democratic defeated multiple attempts by Iran’s runs that no other Arab nation winds blowing across Shiite religious clerics to export enjoys such Islamic legitimacy or their 1979 Islamic Revolution into uses the Koran as its constitution. the Arab world. the kingdom. More recently, they The most recent iteration of this crushed Al-Qaeda’s terrorist cam- Saudi narrative came while I was paign to topple the monarchy. So, visiting the kingdom in March in the Saudi royal family is convinced a speech given by Prince Salman, that if it holds steadfast, the monar- the governor of Riyadh. Speaking at Islamic University in the chy can withstand as well the current gale-force democratic holy city of , Salman made the claim that the 18th winds blowing across the Arab world. century Saudi kingdom was basically a revival of the original Islamic state founded by the Prophet Mohammed. The pres- ent Saudi state was thus a direct descendant of the Prophet’s. Visit to —Middle Class Discontent The elements of Saudi exceptionalism do not stop with its special religious heritage but extend to its amazing natural Sprawled out along the Red Sea coast, Jeddah is the kingdom’s resources. has blessed the kingdom with the world’s second largest metropolis and the most Westernized, with a largest oil reservoir, one quarter of the world total, with population of at least three million. A relaxed resort-like proven reserves of 260 billion barrels, even after four decades atmosphere softens the strict social dictates of Wahhabism. of exploiting them at levels reaching ten million barrels a The city boasts palm-shaded parks for recreation and restau- day. Thanks to its God-given oil wealth, Saudi Arabia has rants and cafes that stay open most of the night. Modernistic become the Arab financial powerhouse—the only Arab state sculptures of sea life and abstract figures dot the parks, circles, included in the elite Group of Twenty nations formulating and boulevards. A visitor at times is hard put to remember international financial reforms today. Its foreign reserves that the most prudish brand of Islam rules Saudi society. in March stood at more than $500 billion, the world’s Among the advertisements on lighted signs along one main fourth largest hoard after those of China, Japan, and .

4 boulevard was one posting the address and phone number for poverty. While no official “poverty line” exists, Saudis living a “Laser Vaginal Rejuvenation Clinic.” on less than $530 per month are considered to be living at or Jeddah has recently been at the center of national contro- below this level. Various press reports put their number any- versy, its reputation for progressive governance besmirched where from two million to more than three million out of the by two 100-year rains that flooded its poorer districts, left estimated 18 million to 20 million Saudi nationals in a total 10,000 homeless, and resulted in 133 deaths. The floods in population of around 27 million. The government provides November 2009 and again in January 2011 saw a spontane- a monthly cash payment of $240 to the poorest 1.5 million. ous mobilization of Saudi youth and women volunteering Officially, the unemployment rate is 10.5 percent, but among to deliver emergency aid—a phe- women it stands at 28 percent, nomenon the kingdom had never according to a recent Saudi study. seen before. The slow response of At the same time, the govern- Jeddah authorities to the two crises Today, signs of ment distributes generous stipends provoked wide-scale media criti- to all 7,000 to 8,000 Saudi princes cism and even a few street protests. discontent are coming and their families. The extensive Making matters worse was the dis- royal welfare system was detailed covery of serious corruption and mostly from the hard- in U.S. embassy cables from the shoddy work in projects launched mid-1990s that Reuters news after the first flood to build a storm- pressed middle class agency obtained in February 2011 water drainage system for the city. over its own declining from the anti-secrecy website As many as 200 local officials WikiLeaks. Cash subsidies were and businessmen now face charges fortunes rather than reported to range from $270,000 of corruption and embezzlement of each month for surviving sons public funds. Suddenly the issue of royal corruption. of King Abdulaziz to $8,000 for corruption has become very public, his great-great-grandchildren. The and one projected onto the national embassy estimated the total royal scene with implications for the royal payout at $2 billion a year. In family as well. The Jeddah floods may well mark a turning addition, some princes received bonus payments for mar- point in the Saudi public’s willingness to put up silently any riages and building palaces. Others were allowed to expropri- longer either with government corruption or poor gover- ate land from commoners or to obtain state land and then nance, perhaps a sign of things to come. resell it at exorbitant prices. King Abdullah, upon ascending The economic and social challenges to the Saudi notion of to the throne in 2005, had curbed some of these practices. exceptionalism were on full display during the annual Jeddah Still, the U.S. embassy had concluded that “getting a grip on Economic Forum, a Saudi version of the World Economic royal family excesses is at the top” of priorities facing the gov- Forum held in Davos, . This year, the focus ernment. The king himself was rated by Forbes as the world’s fell on the Saudi private sector’s likely inability to generate third wealthiest monarch in 2010, with an estimated fortune enough jobs to stave off the social unrest bubbling within the of $18 billion. middle class. Recent media stories have depicted this class as Today, signs of discontent are coming mostly from the “shrinking” or even “slowly disappearing” as inflation and the hard-pressed middle class over its own declining fortunes rising cost of living push more Saudis into dire straits. rather than royal corruption. Its sons and daughters are pour- Saudis have been learning a lot recently about the social ing forth in ever greater numbers from Saudi and foreign and economic ills afflicting a kingdom that once prided itself universities, filled with high expectations but low prospects on a cradle-to-grave welfare system supposedly assuring the for finding a job, building a house, or getting married. Each well-being of all its subjects. The media has been highlight- year, the 24 Saudi state universities alone churn out 80,000 ing not only the high frequency of child obesity, diabetes, to 90,000 graduates—not counting the graduates of myriad and abuse of women but the shockingly high level of serious private colleges and training centers. Women comprise 58

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percent of Saudi graduates today. There are another 100,000 grown steadily from six million in the 1990s to 8.4 million Saudis studying abroad, nearly 40,000 of them in the United today, while the official figure of Saudi job seekers in 2010 States. Unemployed university grads make up close to one- stood at only 448,547. Ever since I have been coming to third of the 43 percent of all youth aged 20 to 24 whom the the kingdom, the government has highlighted the need for Central Department of Statistics reported jobless in 2009. “” of the economy, periodically pressuring private For the first time, the kingdom has begun witnessing companies to meet new quotas for hiring Saudi nationals. demonstrations by jobless male university grads, teachers in Prince Turki al-Faisal, the former Saudi intelligence chief particular. They have not taken to the streets in any sizeable and ambassador to Washington, voiced incomprehension at number yet, but they are venting their unhappiness on blogs, the government’s chronic inability to solve a seemingly simple Facebook, and the like—the same way pro-democracy activ- problem of replacing a small fraction of foreign workers with ists started their movement in jobless Saudis. Despite multiple five- Egypt. Two economists from the year Saudization campaigns, “we still U.S. consulting firm McKinsey don’t have the right answer. I can- & Company warned the Jeddah not understand this.” In June, the Economic Forum that the king- For the first time, government launched yet another dom’s bulging youth popula- effort to force companies to hire tion—55 percent of Saudis are the kingdom has more Saudis, limiting foreign worker under 25 years of age—was about visa to six years for those that failed to produce a “tsunami of job begun witnessing to meet government-dictated quotas. seekers.” One of them, Gassan The root cause for the failure of al-Kibsi, calculated that the king- demonstrations by jobless all these campaigns has remained the dom would have to cope with six male university grads, same. Saudi business tycoons, royal million more job seekers over the and non-royal alike, have a common next 20 years, arguing that the teachers in particular. interest in maintaining the flow of private sector would be called foreign workers because they cost upon to absorb most of them. less, are far more industrious and The prospect for this sector disciplined, and are easily replace- ever generating a prosperous able if they complain. Saudis simply middle class was slim, according to al-Kibsi’s calculations. refuse to work ten hours a day, six days a week as millions Jobs in private companies, on average, paid far lower wages of Pakistanis, Indians, Bangladeshis, Filipinos, and Yemenis than those in the public sector—$410 compared to $1,040 do. Making Saudi workers even less competitive is the fact per month. Al-Kibsi predicted that three-fifths of Saudis that most Saudis graduate with a Bachelor of Arts rather than going into the private sector would earn less than public sec- a Bachelor of Science degree, or worse yet steeped only in tor employees. (King Abdullah had just decreed an $800 min- Wahhabi religious education. imum monthly wage for public sector employees.) Al-Kibsi’s It also matters that the private sector, which accounted grim prediction: by 2030, the average middle class Saudi for 67 percent of non-oil gross domestic product in 2010, is family would see its standard of living cut in half, compared dominated by powerful construction and financial conglom- to that of today. Meanwhile, the growth of the private sector erates in the hands of a score of non-royal billionaires, includ- had slowed to below four percent over the past three years, ing the bin Laden and Olayan families, Nasser Al-Rashid, while it had to reach 6.5 percent to generate enough jobs for Sulaiman Al-Rajhi, and Mohammed Al Amoudi. They all Saudi youth, according to the Banque Saudi Fransi’s latest have partners within the royal family, which counts a few “Saudi Arabia Economics” report. business billionaires of its own. The best known by far is Saudi and foreign economists alike point to the increasing Prince Alwaleed bin Talal, who was ranked by Forbes in 2010 flow of foreign workers onto the Saudi labor market as one of as the world’s 19th richest person, having a net worth just the main causes of Saudi unemployment. Their number has under $20 billion. Some princes profit handsomely from the

6 traffic in foreign labor. The WikiLeaks cables published by a result, family drivers cannot be Saudis, and an estimated Reuters said princes were among those making a fortune by 800,000 to one million foreign chauffeurs “mingle” on a acting as sponsors and importing “a hundred or more” foreign daily basis with Saudi women. In the workplace, Wahhabi workers at a time. Once in the kingdom, these workers were hardliners have convinced the government to reverse a decree then required to pay back to their sponsors a monthly fee of allowing Saudi women to serve as check-out clerks and put an $30 to $150. end to Saudi women working even in lingerie stores, leaving speakers seemed to concur that foreign males to serve Saudi women. The clerics have also the answer to the job crisis for Saudi nationals lay in launch- blocked public transportation in major cities for fear of men ing thousands of small and medi- and women mingling. The absur- um-sized enterprises (SMEs). But dity of the no-mingling policy with the private sector dominated was brought home to foreigners by huge conglomerates, launching attending the Jeddah Economic an SME is no easy task. The gov- The Wahhabi religious Forum. Women attendees were ernment has, however, started to establishment is also cordoned off from men on one work on it. In 2004, the king estab- side of the Hilton Hotel confer- lished the Centennial Fund that is partly responsible for ence hall by a reflecting glass parti- providing loans and advice to new tion. They were separated as well entrepreneurs. The latest available the kingdom’s massive for meals. But men and women figures indicated that as of 2008 were free to mix at coffee breaks the fund had given loans to 1,500 dependence on foreign in the lobby of both the hotel and out of the 21,000 Saudis who had conference center. applied. Saudi and U.S. business- labor. It has long fought Debate over women driving has men report that the pressure on tooth and nail all raged on for decades within the fledgling enterprises to keep down government, royal family, media, labor costs by hiring foreigners is “mingling” of unrelated and consultative Shura Council even greater than for the big con- alike. The absurdity of the con- glomerates. Ironically, the king has men and women in troversy is made even clearer when made it even more difficult for Saudi Arabia is compared to its SMEs by decreeing a minimum public or the work place. neighboring gulf monarchies, all monthly wage of $800 for state of which have long since allowed employees, while SMEs commonly women to drive. One council offer half that amount. Within days member, Mohammed al-Zulfa, has of the royal decrees, Saudis were put together a 1,000-page book abandoning the private sector by the hundreds in search of chronicling what Saudis on all sides of the issue have argued. higher paying jobs in the government and state sector. His was a labor for posterity, he said, to remind Saudis what an incredibly divisive issue women driving had been in their history. Samar Fatany, who runs two English-language shows Women’s Travails in the Workplace and Car on Jeddah state radio called “Generation Next” and “Islam and Current Challenges” cannot understand why women The Wahhabi religious establishment is also partly respon- behind the wheel should be so controversial. “Just allow sible for the kingdom’s massive dependence on foreign labor. it. Those who don’t want to drive, okay. There’s nothing It has long fought tooth and nail all “mingling” of unrelated anti-Islamic about it.” She noted that on the campus of the men and women in public or the work place. The mutaween, new King Abdullah University for Science and Technology, the special religious police, enforce this rigidly, located north of Jeddah, women are permitted not only to particularly most recently to prevent women from driving. As attend classes with men but to drive cars as well.

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Fatany reported that the Shura Council has already debat- Not all Saudi women favor driving. A Saudi woman blog- ed ways to introduce the practice slowly to reduce opposition. ger, Eman al-Nafjan, pointed out that 1,000 women had sent Only women above the age of 30 would be licensed, and they a petition to the Shura Council declaring “we don’t want to would have a 10 p.m. curfew. There would be special police drive.” More women had signed that petition than another in stations staffed by women only and a hot line they could favor of driving. The English-language aired the use if their cars broke down or they were being harassed by views of women opposed to driving in its April 13 edition. male drivers. However, she said that religious conservatives They argued having a driver relieved them of the hassle of had so far succeeded in blocking a vote on the proposal. parking while shopping as well from harassment from male Fatany had been hoping King Abdullah would issue a decree drivers and zealous mutaween. One housewife resigned to authorizing female driving in his March 18 speech. To her seeing women drive eventually predicted a lot of resistance. chagrin, he said not a word. She also revealed that a move “When that happens, people will not accept it, and fathers was underway among feminists to will forbid their daughters from challenge the ban openly. Shortly driving.” After the driving campaign after I left, they launched a “wom- fizzled, some women interviewed en2drive” campaign calling for a One woman was in the local press did indeed blame mass show of defiance on June 17, their fathers and husbands for stop- attracting 12,000 supporters on arrested while driving ping them from participating on the the Facebook page. One woman, pretext that it was not safe. Manal al-Sharif, had decided to in the Eastern Province So Saudis continue to employ jump the gun. She was arrest- one million foreigners to drive their ed May 22 while driving in the city of after wives about town. Eastern Province city of Khobar after she posted a video of herself she posted a video behind the wheel on YouTube. of herself behind the Visit to Riyadh—The King The government sought to and his Critics quell the campaign by locking up wheel on YouTube. al-Sharif for 10 days. It may have The kingdom’s capital lies in the worked, at least in the short term. austere desert heartland not far Only 40 to 50 women took to from the ruins of Diriyah, where in the wheel on June 17. None was 1744 the al-Saud royals sealed their arrested that day, but the ever-vigilant mutaween arrested enduring alliance with the religious ascetic Abdul Wahhab, five in Jeddah later that month. Still, the campaign quickly whose descendants in the al-Sheikh family still dominate gained international attention. U.S. Secretary of State Hillary the powerful religious establishment. From a dusty desert Clinton raised the issue with her Saudi counterpart, Prince backwater, Riyadh has grown into a sprawling, modern- Saud al-Faisal, and let it be known publicly through her day metropolis of five to six million people, endless super spokeswoman that “what these women are doing is brave highways, and myriad American-style shopping malls. Two and what they are seeking is right.” Catherine Ashton, the competing skyscrapers dominate the skyline, the Kingdom European Union’s foreign minister, made a similar pro- Center, owned by billionaire Prince Al-Waleed, and the nouncement, noting that Saudi women were only demand- al-Faisaliah Center belonging to the politically influential ing equal treatment “wherever they are.” In late June, Saudi al-Faisal family. (Among its most distinguished members women turned their ire on Subaru, the Japanese manufacturer are the late King Faisal, the present-day Foreign Minister that markets its cars as being particularly female friendly. Saud al-Faisal, and the former ambassador to and They demanded Subaru pull out of the Saudi market until Washington, Prince .) These days, women were given the right to drive. pictures of King Abdullah adorn in profusion the buildings

8 and streets of the city, part of a government campaign to fete $80,000 to $130,000. He also acknowledged the bona fides his recovery from back surgery in the United States. of public outrage at both government and royal misbehavior, Riyadh is where the religious rule of the humorless establishing a national commission to investigate corruption mutaween is most strictly enforced, except strikingly on and promising “no exceptions for anybody.” At the same Tahliya Street at the city’s dead center. Only a few blocks in time, he went to great lengths to appease the Wahhabi estab- length, Tahliya looks and feels out of place. It is lined from lishment by ordering the media to stop criticizing its leaders one end to the other with cafes, restaurants and boutiques and and doling out hundreds of millions for new and boasts the only broad, tree-dotted sidewalks for strolling in various other religious activities. The one group conspicuous- the city. On weekend nights, Saudi teenagers perform endless ly ignored in his extraordinary display of largesse: reformers. wheelies on their motorcycles down Mohammed al-Qahtani, a the street packed with cars filled 44-year-old American-educated with gawking men only. The youth economics professor at the also drive ATVs recklessly down the Institute for Diplomatic Studies sidewalks filled with pedestrians, Viewed as a liberal in Riyadh, summed up the gen- while both civilian and religious within the fractious eral liberal disappointment with policemen stand by watching disap- the king’s speech. He heads the provingly but making no attempt to royal family, King Saudi Civil and Political Rights curb the mayhem. Association, which has no offi- Riyadh is where King has cial license to operate but has both reigns and rules from, though so far escaped closure anyway. this down-to-earth monarch clearly managed to remain “He could have announced at prefers his desert Janadriyah Arabian least partial elections for the Shura horse farm an hour’s drive outside both popular with Council,” he vented, sitting in the city. This is where he spends reformers and respected his downtown office overlooking more and more of his time, and King Fahd Street in a building where he entertains world figures by fundamentalist adorned on the outside with a like Presidents Bush and Obama. bigger-than-life picture of King Viewed as a liberal within the frac- Wahhabi clerics. Abdullah. “Instead, he empow- tious royal family, King Abdullah ered the religious establishment has managed to remain both popu- more. This is the era of Islamic lar with reformers and respected rule 2.0.” Al-Qahtani saw the by fundamentalist Wahhabi clerics. Still, Saudi liberals were speech as a wake-up call for reformers to the need for adopt- deeply disappointed by his much-awaited March 18 “speech ing new tactics other than endless petitions to the king. to the kingdom” in which he promulgated 21 royal decrees What might these “new tactics” entail? Al-Qahtani began outlining plans for $100 billion in new government outlay talking about political prisoners. Their plight, he argued, had aimed primarily at heading off social unrest. They included a the potential to mobilize tens of thousands of Saudis, Sunni monthly $533 payment to unemployed Saudis, a two-month and Shia alike. Suggesting that a figure of 30,000 prisoners bonus for all government employees and Saudi students was “an under-estimate,” he nonetheless used it to calculate a abroad, and a monthly $800 minimum salary in the public possible turnout of 150,000 to 180,000 protesters just from sector. He ordered the promotion by one rank of all “deserv- their extended families. (The Ministry of Interior stated in ing” military and security personnel and the hiring of 60,000 April that the government had arrested nearly 11,000 people more Saudis by the Interior Ministry. since the start of its anti-terrorism campaign in 2003 and was Addressing the problems of the suffering middle class, the holding 5,080 on terrorism-related crimes. The U.S. State king announced the construction of 500,000 housing units Department’s 2010 Human Right Report cited a 2008 U.N. and an increase in bank loan limits for home building from figure of “approximately 29,000 prisoners and detainees.”)

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Al-Qahtani was already directing his efforts toward orga- the names of others there with him. The first time he regis- nizing prisoner families. He said his Civil and Political Rights tered 146 people. He then used SMS to contact others who Association represented 246 families, and that its recent peti- might be willing to sign on. On March 20, he finally sent the tion calling upon the government to free all political prisoners petition by express mail to the king—no address needed, just had been signed by 1,450 people. The association had also “The King.” He had received a receipt back, convincing him established a Facebook page, “Prisoners Until When.” The it had at least gotten as far as the royal court. By the end of families they were helping to defend were “mostly Sunnis, but March, they had gathered 2,300 names for another petition. we are ready to add Shia members, too.” The government finally closed down their Facebook page Al-Qahtani took me to a weekly meeting of prisoner fami- featuring the petition after it had attracted 4,000 supporters. lies held on the distant outskirts The meeting turned to a new of Riyadh inside a cinderblock idea, setting up another page listing and brick shed decorated inside to the names of all known political pris- resemble a tent. Twenty oners and details of their arrest. In relatives, all men, listened intently Unrest was also rising the end, the group decided to form to the testimony of a former pris- a 20-person permanent committee oner. They then discussed how in the middle class, to register and track all imprisoned best to cope with intense police protesters and then publicize their interrogation methods, even tor- particularly over the plight at home and abroad. Within ture, which the former prisoner housing shortage, with half an hour, they had signed up ten had just described. Was it better volunteers, including two women to confess and apologize in order only 22 percent of contacted by telephone. to get out quickly or hold out for Al-Qahtani shared the widely- as long as possible? One old-time Saudis currently able to held liberal Saudi view that political activist advised them not to declare pressures are building up steadily on the regime illegitimate so as not to own their own homes. the royal family from social groups antagonize their jailers needless- that had not previously been a fac- ly. Other participants described tor in Saudi politics. He pointed their efforts during February and to the youth bulge that he said was March protests to meet Assistant generating hundreds of thousands Interior Minister Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, spending of young unemployed and alienated Saudis. Unrest was also entire days waiting in front of, or inside, his ministry. On rising in the middle class, particularly over the housing short- one Sunday, 250 family members had assembled outside the age, with only 22 percent of Saudis currently able to own ministry and been promised a meeting, only to be duped their own homes. This was largely because of high land costs, into getting on buses and taken to jail. “We should go every a problem al-Qahtani attributed to the practice of royal fam- Sunday until all the prisoners are released,” shouted one. “We ily members obtaining vast tracts from the government and should send people with a clean record to try to see Prince then selling plots off at exorbitant prices. The average cost of Nayef or Prince Mohammed,” interjected another, referring buying a plot and building a home in the outskirts of Riyadh, to the interior minister and his son. where the meeting of prisoner families had taken place, stood One 26-year-old university student, Saleh al-Ashwan, at around $270,000. The king had increased the limit on recounted how family members had organized the petition home bank loans, but, he argued, “the land ownership issue to the king with 1,450 signatures. His mother had gone to has not been addressed.” the Interior Ministry first, and then he had followed her. An increasing number of labor strikes was another indica- His brother had been in prison for six years, he said, and his tor of mounting social unrest, according to al-Qahtani. They brother-in-law for six and a half years. While he was waiting had taken place at the state water company, the King Fahd inside the ministry on one occasion, he had begun collecting Printing Company in Medina and on the construction site

10 for the new King Abdullah Financial Center outside Riyadh. and liberals to join in the cyberspace chatter to defend “Banks are now factoring in strikes as a risk of doing business the government. here,” he claimed. Bloggers say they realize there are “red lines” as to what Typical of Saudi reformers, al-Qahtani argued that the they can post and discuss but are never quite sure where Saudi ruling family could extricate itself from its present pre- the government has drawn them. In December, Saudi dicament by offering a new vision for the kingdom’s future. security agents arrested university professor Mohammed al- “It could declare that in five or ten years, we will have a Abdulkarim after he posted an article discussing the succession constitutional monarchy,” he said. issue within the royal family. (He “Why wait until the last moment was released in April.) The same when it turns out to be not enough. month it blocked the London- They should reform before the pres- based news website Elaph when it sure gets too great.” He applauded The number of Saudis published a WikiLeaks document the example of Oman’s ruler, Sultan embarrassing to the government. Qaboos, whom he felt was respond- using Facebook has There are about a dozen English- ing to public protests by introduc- language Saudi blogs with names ing meaningful reforms that would exploded, growing from like “Saudijanes,” “Saudiwoman,” eventually usher in a constitutional 150,000 in 2008 to two and “Susiesbigadventure.” The monarchy there. English-language ones seem to million in 2011. Sunni enjoy more freedom, presumably because Saudi authorities believe The Explosion in Social Islamists, Shiite activists, their audience is limited. Still, Networking these bloggers, too, now face new and Western-educated regulations that could land them One of the most striking develop- behind bars. As of January 1, blog- ments in Saudi Arabia as in other liberals have all become gers and electronic news sites have Arab countries today is the explo- extremely tech-savvy. been told to apply for a license sion in social networking to air and and provide the names of the host- share grievances as well as to try to ing company and editor who will mobilize for protests like the March be held accountable for all con- 11 “Day of Rage.” The number of tent. Basically, the government is Saudis using Facebook has exploded, growing from 150,000 imposing the same laws and regulations already applicable to in 2008 to two million in 2011. Sunni Islamists, Shiite activ- the rest of the tightly state-controlled media. ists, and Western-educated liberals have all become extremely One of the most audacious bloggers is Eman al-Nafjan, tech-savvy. Several well-known radical Wahhabi clerics, like an English-language teacher working on her Ph.D. thesis in Sheikh Salman al-Oudah, have long operated their own web- linguistics at Riyadh’s King Saud University. The mother of sites, like his “Islamtoday.net.” The Islamists relied heavily on three young children, Nafjan still finds time to publish a fiery social networking to trounce liberals in the 2005 municipal blog on Wordpress called “Saudiwoman.” Prior to the March elections. The Royal Court has also taken to using Facebook. 11 would-be “Day of Rage,” she was predicting the kingdom In February, the court’s chief, Khaled al-Tuwaijri, set up a was “on the train heading to revolution town.” Subsequent page to take complaints, suggestions, and requests from the to the abortive protest, Nafjan explained to readers of the public, promising to pass them on to the relevant government London Guardian newspaper the reasons for its failure. offices. Meanwhile, Saudi security services monitor blogs and Not only had the government mobilized all its resources to Facebook for other reasons—to track down terrorists, gauge head off the street demonstration. Liberals themselves had public opinion and gain intelligence on forthcoming pro- begun questioning who was behind the campaign after a tests. They also have tech-savvy agents who pose as Islamists Saudi Islamic exile in London, Saad al-Faqih, had begun

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calling the “Day of Rage” instead the “Hunain Revolution” The Kingdom Strikes Back after a famous battle at the birth of Islam in the 7th century. What had started as a call for freedom, respect for human In mid-March, as the Saudi government was cracking down rights, and a constitutional monarchy had become a religious on dissent at home, it adopted an equally aggressive line in in the hands of Islamic militants. Liberals were not at its normally cautious foreign policy to pre-empt the king- all interested. dom’s chief regional enemy, Iran. The Saudis rushed troops Nafjan talked about her life as a Saudi blogger over coffee to the neighboring island of Bahrain to save the ruling Sunni in the lobby of the al-Khozama Hotel, a foreign media water- al-Khalifa family there from falling to what they viewed as ing hole in downtown Riyadh the an Iranian-instigated uprising by mutaween generally leave alone. its Shiite majority. As the decision She was dressed in a traditional marked a major turning point in all-black abaya and scarf, but did Saudi muscle-flexing, it was not not wear a niqab face veil. Three In the mind of both taken lightly. For the first time years ago, she had started by com- Bahraini and Saudi since its inception in 2006, the menting on women’s issues in a National Security Council was con- way that caught the attention of royals, the uprising voked by King Abdullah with much the mutaween, who pressured her fanfare. The council had languished to desist. Otherwise, they warned, was being manipulated under the hawkish Prince Bandar when Judgment Day comes, “you bin Sultan, the former long-serving will be in big trouble.” Nafjan by Tehran using its Saudi ambassador to Washington. had not only persevered, she Suddenly, it was being revived had turned to politics because agents and Alalam to bring together all senior Saudi she found a lot of Saudis were -language state princes dealing with security issues debating the kingdom’s political to forge a family consensus. and social problems online. Two television to egg on the The island kingdom of Bahrain, unexpected discoveries: more con- connected to the Saudi mainland by servatives than liberals were using protesters in ’s a 16-mile, four-lane causeway, had the Internet, and a lot of women become the scene of escalating street opposed feminism. Instead, Pearl Square. demonstrations by mostly Shia, who women wanted the government constitute 65 to 70 percent of its to pay them for staying at home native population of only half a mil- and having children. They wanted lion. Protesters had gone from call- public buses for women but only because drivers were becom- ing for democratic reforms to swarming the financial district ing too expensive. of the capital and then marching on the palace to demand an Saudi bloggers had no network among themselves to com- end to the al-Khalifa monarchy. In the mind of both Bahraini municate and promote their causes partly, Nafjan explained, and Saudi royals, the uprising was being manipulated by because they were all suspicious about who was authentic and Tehran using its agents and Alalam Arabic-language state who was a government agent seeking to infiltrate their blogs. television to egg on the protesters in Manama’s Pearl Square “People don’t trust each other,” she said. Bloggers rarely met to take an ever more radical stand. one another, though they did sometimes talk on the phone On Monday morning, March 14, at least 1,000 Saudi once they had figured out who they thought they could trust. troops poured across the causeway into Manama to take up She believed those participating in online debates were pretty positions around the al-Khalifa palace and other key govern- representative of the variety of views found throughout Saudi ment facilities. Two other members of the Saudi-dominated society. She had also come to the conclusion that “liberals are club of six Arab monarchs bonded by the Gulf Cooperation more liberal online than the way they live their own lives.” Council joined in the rescue operation. The United Arab

12 Emirates added 500 policemen, and sent ships to But the al-Khalifa family, now beholden to the Saudis, patrol Bahraini waters. For the first time in Saudi foreign was no longer taking Feltman’s phone calls, figuratively and policy, the had drawn a “red line” against even literally. Nor were either the Saudis or the Bahrainis Iranian encroachment on the Arab side of the interested in Secretary of State ’s comment in and made manifest its determination to use force to defend it. reaction to the Saudi intervention that “there is no security The mood in Riyadh in the wake of the Bahrain decision answer to the aspirations and demands of the demonstrators.” was one of righteous self-assertion not only against Iran, a The chill in U.S.-Saudi relations had set in after Obama had sworn enemy, but even against the United States, the king- ignored Abdullah’s entreaties and sided with hundreds of dom’s main protector. This was because of Washington’s per- thousands of protesters in Cairo’s Tahrir Square demand- ceived support for the Bahraini pro- ing that President testers’ reform demands. Uncertain leave “now.” King Abdullah had of American fidelity any longer, made clear his displeasure by the Saudis were buckling down and The U.S.-Saudi falling refusing to see either Secretary of bulking up militarily for a long-haul State Clinton or Defense Secretary struggle. They had become fed up out over Bahrain Gates. (Gates finally saw the king with what they regarded as U.S. on April 6.) coddling of pro-democracy activists exposed as never before The U.S.-Saudi falling out over across the Arab world and American Bahrain exposed as never before naiveté about Iranian machinations. the sharply differing the sharply differing assessment in From the Saudi perspective, the Riyadh and Washington over how main outcome of the 2003 U.S. assessment in Riyadh to deal with the democratic winds invasion of Iraq to topple Saddam and Washington over set loose by the and Hussein had been the establishment Iran’s attempts to expand its influ- of a pro-Iranian Shiite government how to deal with the ence. Obama, like his predeces- in Baghdad, provoking a major shift sor George W. Bush, believed the in the balance of power in the democratic winds set monarchies’ salvation lay in more Gulf in favor of Tehran. Now the democracy at home and in inte- Americans were urging democratic loose by the Arab Spring. gration of their respective defense reforms in Bahrain, which risked forces to establish a more cred- ending in another pro-Iranian Shiite ible deterrent to Iran. The mon- government, this time just off the archs, however, viewed democratic shore from the kingdom’s oil heart- reform as the principal threat to land in the Eastern Province where the vast majority of Saudi their power, even survival, at only Iran’s gain. They were Shia lived. pursuing closer cooperation not so much among their military Between March 12 and 15, a U.S.-Saudi diplomatic forces as their security and intelligence services convinced that tug-of-war took place that few outsiders were aware of. The Iranian subversion constituted the most immediate threat. Obama administration had been pressing Bahrain rulers to Saudi Arabia and Bahrain in particular held this view because take more than “baby steps” toward reform, the public advice they both had large Shiite populations Iran might use as a delivered by Secretary of Defense Robert Gates while visiting fifth column. Clearly, the Arab Spring was not a good time to Bahrain just two days before the Saudi troop deployment. be a Bahraini or Saudi Shiite. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Jeffrey Feltman had made several trips to push for talks between Bahraini royals and Shiite opposition leaders; he was still at his mission even as Saudi forces began taking up positions around Manama.

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Qatif — The Shiite Heartland oil prices did indeed witness a sudden spike. The demonstra- tors also demanded the release of Shiite prisoners, among Qatif, with a population of 475,000, is the Shiite core of them the nine implicated in the al-Khobar bombing 15 years the Sunni kingdom. Rich in history stretching back 3,500 ago but never put on trial. years, the port city in the Eastern Province also serves as the The chairman of Qatif’s partially-elected municipal coun- crucible of Shiite political ferment and protests. Saudi Shia cil is Jafar Mohammad al-Shayeb, whose son commutes number around two million, half of them living in this prov- to work daily across the 16-mile causeway to Manama—a ince, where, if foreign workers are included, they make up 30 reminder of the close ties between the Shia communi- percent of the total. What goes on here is of riveting concern ties in the Eastern Province and Bahrain. Al-Shayeb said to Riyadh because the kingdom’s vast oil fields are all locat- there are many Shia on both sides of the waterway making ed nearby. Just to the north of the daily commute like his son. Qatif lies the heavily-guarded Ras Al-Shayeb holds a B.S. degree in Tanura terminal complex—by far engineering from the University of the world’s biggest—handling the Southern Colorado and an M.S. in export of six million barrels of oil a Many foreign oil and economics from Middle Tennessee day. Qatif and neighboring villag- State University. He makes his es have witnessed periodic Shiite political analysts look views known on his own website uprisings ever since the 1979 (www.alshayeb.org) and is a fre- , in protest upon the Eastern quent commentator on Shiite affairs against restrictions on job oppor- Province as something for the BBC and Arab radio and tunities, Shiite religious practices, television stations. and the building of mosques and of a ticking time bomb The soft-spoken, fluent English social centers. speaker was elected to the Qatif Many foreign oil and political capable of shattering council in 2005, the first such elec- analysts look upon the Eastern tions in the kingdom ever. Al-Shayeb Province as something of a ticking the kingdom’s stability said he plans to run again when the time bomb capable of shattering next round of elections take place the kingdom’s stability if it goes if it goes off. this September. He acknowledged off. Several attempts have been that municipal council elections made to do just that. In 1996, had been discredited kingdom-wide a group of local Shia terrorists because real power remained in the bombed a housing complex in hands of the government-appointed al-Khobar, south of Qatif, where U.S. Air Force personnel mayor and also because the councils are dependent on fund- were living, killing 19 Americans and wounding 372 others ing from Riyadh. Still, al-Shayeb believes Saudi authorities of various nationalities. Both U.S. and Saudi security officials intend soon to expand their powers, holding out the prospect concluded the terrorists had been sent by Iran after being for Shia to have a greater say in local affairs. trained in by the Iranian-backed Hizbollah fac- On a weekend morning in late March, al-Shayeb took sev- tion. Al-Qaeda also tried to attack facilities here to provoke eral American visitors to the Horizon Cultural and Research chaos in the international oil market. The Saudi government Center in downtown Qatif to meet other Shiite dignitaries, has harbored a longstanding fear that any Shiite uprising in including Tawfiq Alsaif, a leading scholar. He has been pro- Bahrain could spread to the Shia community here, result- moting the idea that the Saudi royal family needs to abandon ing in the possible disruption of oil exports and immediate the Wahhabi religion as the basis for its legitimacy, separate skyrocketing of oil prices. These fears were only heightened and state, and establish the monarchy as a “civil when, in March, Shia here began holding weekly demonstra- state.” In the Shiite lexicon, “civil” is a code word for “non- tions to show their support for their brethren in Bahrain, and religious,” what Westerners would call “secular.” In such a

14 state, the Shiites believe they could gain equal rights with in the consultative Shura Council. (Only five of its 150 Sunnis and a bigger stake in the kingdom’s politics. The main members are currently Shia.) Conditions for religious worship advantage to the royal family of a civil state, Alsaif argued, had improved somewhat, but Shia still remained sidelined in would be the widening of its base of legitimacy, since the Shia Saudi society. In 2003, they had produced a document signed would support the monarchy too. “More elements of Saudi by 450 Shiite dignitaries entitled “Partners in One Nation” society will become engaged.” calling for equal treatment in the offer of jobs in the govern- Both al-Shayeb and Alsaif vehemently rejected the gov- ment, public sector, and security forces. Alsaif described the ernment’s view of the Shia community as an Iranian fifth government response as “very slow, very little,” adding, “it’s column. They said the vast majority of Saudi Shia looked not relieving the tension.” to Iraq’s Shiite religious leaders in Najaf and Karbala for Then in February 2009, an ugly incident occurred in spiritual guidance. Many Saudi Shiite leaders once belonged, Medina involving Shiite pilgrims and the mutaween religious or still did, to the Dawa Party led police. The pilgrims had been vis- by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al- iting a cemetery where Shiite holy Maliki. They also pointed out that men were buried when the police the kingdom’s Shia were first and had videotaped their ceremony foremost Arabs, not as are Clearly the government and tried to break it up, attacking most Iranians, providing another women and children. Al-Shayeb barrier to Iranian penetration of remains anxious to considered the incident a turn- their community. Still, hundreds of ing point in Shia relations with Saudi Shiite protesters have made avoid any violence the government. Sheikh Nimr clear their solidarity with Bahraini that might result in Baqir al-Nimr, a religious lead- Shiites, whose uprising had been er in al-Awamiya, outside Qatif, brutally crushed with Saudi military Shia victims serving as went so far as to call for Shia help. “With what’s happening in secession. “If we don’t get our the Arab world, the tensions are grist to the mill of the dignity, then we will have to con- greater,” explained al-Shayeb. “We sider seceding from this country,” feel the discrimination more.” more militant Shia. he warned. The strong Saudi backing for the So far, firebrands like Sheikh crackdown in Bahrain had clearly Nimr have not been the predomi- been taken by al-Shayeb and his nate influence over the Shia com- colleagues as a warning of things munity. Still, moderates like al- to come if their own protests persisted. Prince Mohammed Shayeb and Alsaif are clearly having trouble maintaining any bin Fahd, the Eastern Province governor, had been meeting clout with the younger generation, as I witnessed during my regularly with them “to plead for calm.” But al-Shayeb and his visit. One day after recounting that they had reached an agree- friends were not happy because Prince Mohammed had “not ment to stop the protests, the youth in Qatif nonetheless took offered anything in return to the Shia” for their cooperation. to the streets calling the release of prisoners and solidarity with Meanwhile, the Shia youth were criticizing their elders as sell- the . Saudi police stayed away, and the protest outs. “The moderates are being challenged by those who say went off peacefully. protests in the street work better,” al-Shayeb remarked. Clearly the government remains anxious to avoid any vio- Qatif’s more moderate Shiite leaders felt that after several lence that might result in Shia victims serving as grist to the decades of negotiations to establish better relations with the mill of the more militant Shia. In late April, 51 leading Shiite Saudi government, they had little to show for their efforts. clerics and other opinion makers formally called for a halt to In 1993, they had reached an agreement with the late King two months of protests, “to calm the streets for the sake of Fahd, ending their open rebellion in return for the govern- brotherly cooperation that will help achieve our demands.” ment allowing exiled Shia to come back home and participate The same day, dozens of youth again displayed their defiance

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and took to the streets here in Qatif anyway. As of late April, a people’s coup—not a military coup.” Sager mentioned no Saudi security was reported to be holding 140 Shiite activ- monarchy by name, but he didn’t exclude any either. ists, including two bloggers, and to have established a pat- One of the monarchy’s non-royal defenders fired back tern of continuing arrests and releases to contain simmering in an op-ed piece published May 8 in the English-language Shiite discontent. Saudi Arab News. Hassan bin Youssef Yassin, a longtime aide to Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal, wrote caustically that the Arab world’s republics had all failed miserably to Revolution, Reform or Status Quo deliver either democracy or economic well-being. Its mon- archies from Morocco to Saudi Arabia, by contrast, had On Sunday, April 24, published an proven adept in handling change and improving the lot of unusually outspoken op-ed piece by a non-royal Saudi their peoples. “The dream of a republic has more often than businessman, the only one bold not ended in a painful awakening, enough to finance an indepen- while Arab monarchies in compari- dent think tank called the Gulf son have provided greater stability Research Center. The institute and prosperity.” Whatever criticism was recently expelled from the The turmoil in Libya might be leveled against the Saudi because had given many Saudis monarchy, it had achieved “an effec- of its occasional critiques of the tive form of government that had Gulf Arab monarchies such as that pause to reconsider. They been more successful than Arab appearing in the Post. Its director, republics in addressing the needs of Abdulaziz Sager warned all Arab now had two contrasting our people.” gulf monarchies that time was fast Which argument struck closer running out on their regimes. He “models” of emerging to the truth? While the Arab Spring applauded their ruling families for was sweeping aside one republican successfully leading their coun- democracies before dictator after another, the House tries through tumultuous social them, one in Egypt and of Saud seemed far from danger changes from Bedouin to mod- of a “people’s coup.” The first ever ern societies. Then he put on his the other in Libya. “Day of Rage” in the kingdom had Cassandra hat. fizzled. The rage, such as it was, had It would be folly, Sager bluntly been confined to cyberspace and wrote, for these monarchies to never made it down to the ground. believe they could remain immune Even protests among the most dis- from the Arab Spring. “The social contract that has long contented elements in the Shia community had remained defined the relationship between rulers and citizens—the relatively small. An old Saudi lawyer friend noted that while unspoken trade-off of economic wealth for political power— there might be signs of “disgruntlement” among Saudis, the is coming to an end,” he opined. “If the ruling families of vast majority still felt there was more to lose than to gain the gulf want to maintain their legitimacy, they need to right now by taking to the streets. The turmoil in Libya, adapt quickly to the changing times and enact substantive he felt, had given many Saudis pause to reconsider. They political reform.” Otherwise, “their rule cannot be assured.” now had two contrasting “models” of emerging democracies They could no longer presume they enjoyed “a permanent before them, one in Egypt and the other in Libya. “If Egypt American insurance policy” against popular demand for becomes a stable democratic country with a good economy, greater participation. They had to undertake more than we’re going to go for it.” Even if the Egyptian economy was cosmetic reforms and stop thinking economic handouts just “okay,” but the military stayed on to assure stability, could serve as a substitute. “The fact is, the threat now is of “that would be a good model for Saudi Arabia.” He feared, however, that the “Libyan model” was more applicable to

16 the kingdom, by which he meant civil war and division of nationwide protest movement against the 40-year reign of the the country. “We could have a sectarian war and Al-Qaeda al-Assad family. He was worried that the al-Saud family was could get involved,” he said. “Libya makes us think there is proving equally unresponsive to reform demands. This was not just one model.” He was the second liberal Saudi I had because it had resisted U.S. pressure for reform over 50 years, interviewed who had raised the specter of the kingdom’s dis- “so they think they can ride this out, too.” Could they? “For integration, a prospect I had never before considered in any now, maybe so,” he said. “It’s not a critical mass yet, or at the likely scenario for its future. tipping point.” He admitted he had no clear idea where the My lawyer friend readily admitted “something qualitative- tipping point was. ly different” was happening in the Arab world that inevitably The tactic of using political prisoners as a rallying point held implications for Saudi Arabia, even if the kingdom had seems questionable, or at least highly problematical. Most are escaped for now being bitten by the democracy “bug.” The Sunni Islamic extremists who have been discredited in Saudi royal family could not depend forever on financial handouts society as “religious deviants.” There are few signs so far that alone to solve the social and eco- their mistreatment has upset Saudi nomic problems afflicting 20 mil- society beyond their immediate lion Saudis. Even the kingdom’s families. A second obstacle resides coffers had a bottom. He pointed to in the intense religious animosity the vagaries of the oil market. “A big The Sunni-Shia between any Wahhabi extremists dip in the oil prices as happened in sectarian divide in and the Shia, since the former the 1980s and 1990s could trigger regard the latter as apostates wor- something.” He predicted another Saudi society remains thy of the death sentence. So far, crash would come within the next families of Shiite and Sunni pris- five years, and then, he said, “all a barrier to forging a oners have shown little inclination bets are off.” to work together. The Sunni-Shia What might possibly trigger an common cause around sectarian divide in Saudi society uprising other than an oil crash? remains a barrier to forging a com- Might the plight of political pris- political prisoners and mon cause around political pris- oners serve to mobilize protest- human rights abuses. oners and human rights abuses. ers beyond the Shia? The State So what other lessons might Department’s 2010 Human Rights be applicable from the uprisings Report on Saudi Arabia noted the in Egypt, Tunisia, Yemen, Libya, following “significant” issues: tor- and ? The clearest was that ture, physical abuse, poor prison conditions, arbitrary arrest, autocrats who stay in power too long become lightning rods secret detention, denial of fair and public trials, and the for protest. Another lesson has been that dependence on elab- lack of due process. “Discrimination on the basis of gender, orate security services is not sufficient. The House of Saud’s religion, sect and ethnicity were common,” and the lack core vulnerability in these regards seems different in nature, of workers’ rights remained “a severe problem.” There had though it is indeed buttressed by a massive security network. been no reports of politically motivated killings of Saudi Its main weakness, however, remains its ailing gerontocracy nationals, however. reminiscent of the Soviet Union’s last years. My Saudi lawyer friend conceded many prisoners held Five senior princes—two of them in line to become legitimate complaints. The government, he suggested, would king—are 75 years old or older and afflicted with various be wise to release as many as possible to diffuse mounting illnesses. King Abdullah, 87, is still recovering from his opera- public anger. “If they don’t handle the prisoner issue care- tion last fall. Crown Prince Sultan, 86, had gone for cancer fully, this could be the detonator.” He noted that in Syria a treatment in New York in late 2008. He was away for two minor incident involving police abuse of children, who had years struggling to recover and remains on part-time duty. written anti-government graffiti on public walls, triggered a More and more in charge of the kingdom’s daily affairs is

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Interior Minister Prince Nayef, 78, who is currently expected Interior Minister Prince Nayef is famously reported to have to follow Sultan to the throne. Nayef suffers from crippling told a group of liberals agitating for constitutional monarchy osteoporosis, and some reports say diabetes as well. Another in 2004: “We came to power by the sword. If we have to, we prince with good prospects of becoming king is Riyadh gov- intend to stay in power by the sword.” ernor Prince Salman, who is 75 years old. He, too, went to The Saudi government has to worry about three main New York last year for a back operation. Finally, Prince Saud potential sources of revolt: jobless youth, the Shia, and al-Faisal, 70, the world’s longest serving foreign minister after hard-line Wahhabi clerics. The most serious may well be the 36 years, suffers badly from Parkinson’s disease. first. Shortly, there will be a mass of unemployed university Saudi royal succession moves graduates who are also “netizens” by tradition from brother to connected through the Internet, brother, rather than from father to Facebook, and . Just what son, and has been restricted so far kind of incident might drive job- to the living sons of the late King Shortly, there will be less Saudi university graduates into Abdulaziz bin Saud, founder of protest en masse remains murky. the present-day kingdom in 1932. a mass of unemployed Might the accidental killing by Abdullah established in 2006 an police of a protesting jobless univer- , composed of university graduates sity grad do it, like the mistreatment 35 sons and grandsons of King of a single, poor fruit vendor in Abdulaziz, as a potential alter- who are also “netizens” Tunisia, Mohammed Bouazizi, had native mechanism for choosing touched off an uprising in Tunisia? future kings, but it has never been connected through the Or might a confrontation between tested. There is just as good a pros- Internet, Facebook, the mutaween and Saudi teenagers pect that aging and ailing princes recklessly driving their souped-up could end up ruling the kingdom and Twitter. motorcycles and off-track vehicles for another decade before a some- down Riyadh’s fashionable Tahliya what younger generation of al- Street ignite the flames of rebellion? Sauds comes to the fore. The sav- The pretext for revolt is difficult to ing grace for the Saudi monarchy determine, as Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, is that it enjoys a deep bench of and Syria have shown. qualified kingly aspirants among King Abdulaziz’s grandchil- The Shiites constitute the most rebellious element of dren. Its possibly fatal flaw: old men born before World War Saudi society and have been so ever since the 1979 Iranian II will be dealing with the problems of an Internet-driven 21st Revolution. They have shown themselves ready and willing to century world moving at Twitter speed. take their complaints into the street in defiance of Saudi secu- Might political grievances with royal rule be sufficient rity forces. They remain, however, a small minority, and the to trigger a revolt? Hundreds of Saudis have signed peti- kingdom’s Wahhabi-influenced majority has little sympathy tions—online and in letter format—demanding elections for for their causes. So far, periodic attempts by the Shia to build the national Shura Council, an expansion of its powers, the bridges to pro-democracy Sunnis have made little headway. separation of the government from the ruling family, and The threat of a Shiite takeover in Bahrain seems likely to a constitutional monarchy. The aborted March 11 “Day of continue impeding bridge-building. Rage” illustrates, however, that few Saudis are ready to brave The constituency the government has been most con- the combined pressure of the royal family, security forces, cerned to keep happy is the Wahhabi establishment—the Wahhabi religious establishment, and their own families to House of Saud’s central pillar of support after its own 7,000 take to the street. Besides, there are no pro-democracy civil to 8,000 families. The most serious challenge to al-Saud society groups as there were in Egypt to help organize dem- authority has always come from Wahhabi extremists and onstrations, nor labor union activists as there were in Tunisia. militants, from the seizure of the Grand Mosque in in

18 1979 to Al-Qaeda’s terrorist attacks in the 2003-05 period. an ailing gerontocracy. So contentious has the succession Currently, the religious establishment feels threatened by issue become that King Abdullah was unable to name a rising domestic criticism of its mutaween, demands from new cabinet after his return in February because of squab- Saudi women for greater independence, pressures to reduce bling among senior princes, and their competing sons, over religious education in the school curriculum, and the secular control of key ministries. As of early July, there had been no uprisings in Egypt and Tunisia. King Abdullah sought to announcement, a sign that the succession issue has become appease the Wahhabi clerics in his March 18 speech, clamp- truly contentious. The status quo promised another decade ing down on media criticism of them and showering their of kings as concerned about their own health as that of the venerable institutions with hundreds of millions of dollars kingdom’s well-being—hardly a reassuring prospect. for their various activities. The king The paralysis at the top seems was clearly anxious to buttress the to have affected even the mak- House of Saud’s keystone alliance ing of modest political reforms, with the House of Wahhab, the like partial elections for the Shura better to deal with liberal reform- Saudi youth, women, Council or the right of women to ers at home and the pro-democracy vote, leaving the Saudi kingdom far upheavals abroad. and university behind its neighboring Arab gulf So how safe is the Saudi royal monarchies. Nor has it found family? Ironically, the “Libyan graduates, agitating ways to address successfully the model” of democratic transition has from the bottom, have issue most likely to detonate a helped to silence Saudi liberals and social explosion within the House strengthen the Saudi monarchy—at taken over as the prime of Saud—the coming tsunami least in the short term. So has the of jobless youth. The frustra- threat of sectarian warfare in Syria agents for change. tions of hundreds of thousands of as well as the uncertainties hanging university graduates could well over the aspiring new democracies shortly become the wellspring of in Egypt and Tunisia. Nor has more social and political unrest the political chaos generated by the than the House of Saud has ever pro-democracy uprisings in next-door Yemen and Bahrain witnessed. Perhaps the most profound trans- done anything to make reform more appealing to the general formation that has already taken place in public. Saudi rulers are counting on the chaos and confusion the kingdom is that in the dynamics for change. The royal in all these countries to dampen the Saudi ardor for change. argument that the initiative for reform has always come from Still, the Saudi royal family has yet to illustrate it can the top is no longer valid. Instead, Saudi youth, women, and successfully handle the challenges threatening its mid- and university graduates, agitating from the bottom, have taken long-term stability, starting with the transfer of power from over as the prime agents for change.

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