A Monthly Newsletter on Food Security and Vulnerability in .

Number 06/2001 15 June, 2001

Summary

· Civil security remains unpredictable in Kapelebyong County, District, where about 12,000 internally displaced persons (IDPs) are in camps as Karimojong warriors maintain intermittent attacks on communities there. This has resulted in loss of livestock and other property as well as low cultivation this season, raising concerns for a low harvest and likely increased need for food assistance. Farmers in other counties cultivated cereals, oil crops and root crops, some of which are ready to harvest, including early-planted millet. The main harvest is expected by end of June. After a slowdown in its distribution of cassava stem cuttings in May, the NGO Concern Worldwide is now providing stem cuttings for farmers to plant so they can take advantage of ongoing rains. However, the current high cost of the stems limits the ability of the NGO to buy stems for supplying to farmers. The NGO also reports an increasing incidence of malaria and sexually transmitted diseases.

· Overall, the supply of staple foods has increased as crop harvests begin in many districts, improving households’ access to food and food security. IDPs in civil insecure areas of Bundibugyo, Gulu and Kitgum Districts have adequate access to their own food, augmented by rations from the World Food Program through its normal feeding programs. The start of the harvest, for which prospects are bright in most districts, will boost national food security.

· Timely onset of the rainy season, characterized by well-distributed rainfall, and availability of agricultural inputs as well timely planting and use of recommended agronomic practices are expected to enhance crop yields, raising expectations of normal to above normal production. FEWS NET and the IDEA Project estimate that as much as 70,000 MT and nearly 20,000 MT of maize and beans, respectively, will be produced this season. Banana production for household consumption in and other major producing districts remains normal and supplies are good to major urban markets in and Jinja. Other staple crops, such as millet and sorghum, are available in northern and eastern districts and supplies will increase once the harvest begins.

· Rainfall in the pastoral districts has been adequate for ensuring livestock access to pastures and water. No new outbreak of livestock disease or increase in incidence has been observed over the last forty-five days and Foot and Mouth Disease no longer threatens Mbarara District.

· Commodity prices in major markets have followed normal seasonal trends, as reported since April, and market supply remains adequate except in areas experiencing civil insecurity. continued to record low maize prices during May as traders sold long-stored, low-quality maize stocks. A reduction was recorded in Appreciation for Contributions from: bean prices in some markets. · Various District Agriculture and Veterinary Officials · Market Information Service, IITA- weekly district market data · Concern Worldwide, Katakwi · Lutheran World Federation · And other NGOs - activity reports

A USAID Project Managed by Chemonics International, Inc. ¨ P.O. Box 7856, Kampala, Uganda Telephone 256-41-231140 ¨ Fax: 256-41-231139 ¨ Email: [email protected] A Monthly FEWS Newsletter on Food Security and Number 06/2001 2 Vulnerability in Uganda 15 June, 2001

1. Review of Continuing Humanitarian and Food Crises

1.1 Continuing Humanitarian and Food Crises

Civil insecurity continues in Kapelebyong County, , where at least 12,000 people are displaced due to continued attacks by Karimojong warriors. Many of the displaced were unable to cultivate crops this season, reducing their prospects for production and raising concern for likely increased food insecurity in the future. In other parts of the district, farmers cultivated crops, including early planted millet that is ready to harvest although the main harvest will not begin until the end of June. After May when it slowed its cassava distribution in Kapelebyong County, the NGO Concern Worldwide is now providing cassava cuttings for farmers to plant to utilize ongoing rains. However, the current unaffordable cost of the stems limits the NGO access to them. Concern also notes increasing incidence of malaria and sexually transmitted diseases in the Internally Displaced Persons’ (IDPs) settlements, which need medical intervention.

No significant reduction in civil insecurity has been observed in Kapelebyong County of Katakwi District on the border with , as Karimojong warriors attack communities there from time to time. This has kept many households in settlements and causing the continued loss of livestock and other property. An estimated 12,000 people, approximately 5 percent of the estimated mid-2001 district population, are still displaced. The Katakwi District Agriculture Officer (DAO) informed FEWS NET that intermittent civil security has limited Kapelebyong households’ access to fields for cultivating crops this season, despite the Army’s presence in the area. The DAO expects a negligible harvest, increasing the likelihood that affected households will require food assistance in the next three to six months. The exact needs will have to be determined by an assessment, security permitting. Farmers in other counties of Katakwi District were able to cultivate crops, including cassava, groundnuts, millet and sorghum. The harvest of February dry sowed millet has begun in isolated areas, although the main harvest is expected by end of June.

Concern Worldwide, a Non-Government Organization (NGO) operating in Kapelebyong County, concurs with the DAO and reports that some households are still experiencing moderate food insecurity in Kapelebyong County, which is most affected by the civil insecurity. Following a hiatus in May 2001 when the NGO reduced its cassava distribution activities to households in Kapelebyong County. Due to the limited capacity of households to clear new land, the NGO is now providing cassava cuttings for farmers to plant so that they can take advantage of ongoing rains. However, current high cost of the stems, ranging between UShs 12,000 and 15,000 per bag, is prohibitively expensive and limits the NGOs access to the planting materials for distribution. Concern Worldwide also reports increasing incidence of diseases, such as malaria due to conditions and sexually transmitted diseases in the Internally Displaced Persons’ (IDPs) settlements, necessitating medical intervention for to the IDPs.

2. Food Security Conditions and Prospects

2.1. Current Food Security Status and Outlook for the Next Three Months

Staple food supplies are increasing as crop harvests begin in many districts, improving households’ access to food and their food security. National food security will improve with the A Monthly FEWS Newsletter on Food Security and Number 06/2001 3 Vulnerability in Uganda 15 June, 2001 harvest. IDPs in civil insecure districts of western and northern Uganda have adequate access to food.

District officials and NGOs, indicate an overall increase in staple food supply as crop harvests begin in many , improving households’ access to food and their food security status. Despite sporadic civil insecurity in , western Uganda bordering the Democratic Republic of Congo, and in Gulu and Kitgum Districts in northern Uganda, household access to food is adequate for all, including IDPs in government protected settlements who were able to cultivate and are now harvesting their crops. WFP continues to provide food assistance to the IDPs through its normal feeding programs.

The start of the harvest will boost national food security, which remains favorable for most districts except for households in Kapelebyong County, Katakwi District, where moderate food insecurity continues to be experienced.

3. National Trends: Hazard Information

Well distributed rainfall, stable soil conditions and proper agronomic practices provide optimal crop conditions for good yields, from which Uganda expects normal to above normal production in the first season. Production is estimated at about 70,000 MT of maize and just under 20,000 MT for beans. Banana production is normal in Mbarara District and other major producing areas; while good millet and sorghum harvests are projected in eastern and northern Uganda, adding to current supply.

Adequate rainfall received in pastoral districts has benefited vegetation sprouting, maintaining pastures as well as replenishing water supplies. No new outbreak of livestock disease or increase in incidence has been reported over the last forty-five days.

Generally, commodity prices in major markets have followed normal seasonal trends as reported since April and market supply remains adequate except in areas experiencing civil insecurity. Relatively low maize price levels continued to be recorded in Iganga Districts during most of May as traders sold off long stored low quality maize in advance of the harvest. Some markets recorded a reduction in the price of beans. Further normal price decreases are expected within the next two to three months as the main harvest begins.

3.1. Rainfall and Vegetation Conditions

The timely onset of the first rainy season in March that has been characterized by predominantly near normal to normal rainfall in most districts coupled with good soil conditions have provided optimal crop conditions throughout the season, now nearing its conclusion. Only isolated areas, including parts of , northern Uganda, and , eastern Uganda, reported noticeable, below normal rainfall. Nonetheless, crop conditions remained promising in the two districts with minimal concern for adverse crop losses as the harvests begin.

Meteosat imagery (Figure 1) illustrates the progression of seasonal rainfall, its estimated volume and spatial distribution across Uganda. The imagery correlates well with ground station data and reports by extension personnel and NGOs, confirming normal to above normal rainfall since March. A comparison of the current (1st column) to the normal (2nd column), shows minimal A Monthly FEWS Newsletter on Food Security and Number 06/2001 4 Vulnerability in Uganda 15 June, 2001 deviation for the most part from normal (3rd Figure 1: First Season Rainfall Estimates Based on Meteosat Images column), signaling a Current: February 2001 Normal: February Current compared to good season and Normal: February expected crop output.

Overall, adequate rainfall received in the central, western to southwestern Uganda “cattle corridor,” mainly comprised of Mbarara, Ntungamo, Sembabule Districts. Current: March 2001 Normal: March Current compared to This has regenerated Normal: March vegetation, and is maintaining pastures as well water supply. Livestock access to pastures and water in Kotido and Moroto Districts, northeastern Uganda, is good.

3.2. Crop Current: April 2001 Normal: April Current compared to Conditions Normal: April

A combination of timely onset and predominantly well distributed rainfall, adequate soil conditions and availability of agricultural inputs as well timely planting Current: May 2001 Normal: May Current compared to and use of Normal: May recommended practices is expected to enhance crop yields and result in normal to above normal production.

Utilizing data from their activities and anecdotal from districts agricultural officials in sample No Rainfall Low Rainfall districts, FEWS NET Moderate Rainfall Heavy Rainfall FEWS NET/Uganda, June 2001 Source of data: NASA A Monthly FEWS Newsletter on Food Security and Number 06/2001 5 Vulnerability in Uganda 15 June, 2001 and the IDEA Project estimate that as much as 70,000 MT of maize will be produced this season while just under 20,000 MT of beans will be realized. These brighter prospects imply more supply to market for increased farm household income, lower prices for consumers and enhanced food security. Continued rainfall in some districts may affect bean quality, although no significant reduction to production is expected. Bananas, a staple crop in Mbarara District, are available in adequate quantity for household consumption there and for market supplies to major urban markets, including Kampala and as far as Jinja. Other staple crops, such as millet and sorghum, are available in northern and eastern districts and supply will increase once the harvest begins. Figure 2 emphasizes areas of high and low production. Note the red zone in

Figure 2: Qualitative Highlights of Crop Production

MOYO

KOTIDO ARUA ADJUMANI KITGUM

GULU

NEBBI

LIRA MOROTO APAC KATAKWI MASINDI Lake Kyoga HOIMA KUMI Lake Albert NAKASONGOLA KAPCHORWA PALLISA KAMULI MBALE KIBOGA LUWERO BUNDIBUGYO KIBALE MUKONO IGANGA TORORO

BUGIRI JINJA MUBENDE KABAROLE BUSIA KAMPALA KASESE MPIGI Estimates of Crop Production Lake George SEMBABULE Normal to Above Normal Maize, Beans Lake Edward MASAKA MBARARA KALANGALA Below Normal Maize, Beans BUSHENYI RAKAI Low Cultivation, Low Harvests RUKUNGIRI Lake Victoria NTUNGAMO Civil Insecurity, Adequate Cultivation

KISORO KABALE Normal Banana Production

Source: District Depts. of Crop Production, FEWS NET and IDEA Projects, June 2001

Katakwi District where civil insurgency has limited household crop production.

3.3. Livestock Conditions: There has been no outbreak of livestock disease or increase in incidence reported over the last forty-five days. Foot and Mouth Disease, which posed a significant threat to pastoral household food security in Mbarara District in March and part of April, is under control, according to the Department of Veterinary Services. Livestock health is reportedly good in the predominantly pastoralist Kotido and Moroto Districts. A Monthly FEWS Newsletter on Food Security and Number 06/2001 6 Vulnerability in Uganda 15 June, 2001

3.4. Trade and Market Trends

Generally, commodity prices in major markets have followed normal seasonal trends, as reported since April, and market supply remains adequate except in areas experiencing civil insecurity, particularly eastern Katakwi District where production was low last year and is not expected to improve. Iganga District continued to record low maize prices during May as traders sold long-stored, low-quality maize stocks. A reduction was recorded in bean prices in some markets.

Dry maize prices averaged UShs 21,000 per 100-kilogram bag in Iganga and other eastern markets during May, not much change from levels observed in April. Beans sold for approximately UShs 62,000 or about 8 percent lower than in April per 100-kilogram bag, implying increasing availability from the first season harvest. Further price decreases are expected within the next two to three months as the peak harvest begins.