REDUCING THE IMPACTS OF ENVIRONMENTAL EMERGENCIES THROUGH EARLY WARNING AND PREPAREDNESS
The Case of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
– THE FIJI CASE STUDY –
Atunaisa Kaloumaira SOPAC Secretariat
SOPAC Technical Report 344
December 2001
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SOUTH PACIFIC DISASTER REDUCTION PROGRAM (SPDRP) REPORT
NOTE
This report is one of a collection carried forward from the transfer of the UN Department of Humanitarian Affairs (UNDHA), South Pacific Disaster Reduction Programme (SPDRP) into the Disaster Mangement Unit of the South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC). For ease of reference and retrieval this report is logged into the SOPAC publication system as SOPAC Technical Report 344.
UNDP is acknowledged as the major funding agency for the publication of the results borne out of the SPDRP project; and the British, Australia and New Zealand governments are acknowledged for their continuing support of disaster reduction/management activities in the Pacific region that have been transferred into the Disaster Management Unit of SOPAC.
While SOPAC takes responsibility for ensuring that all elements that make a bonafide report are present in this SPDRP publication, the opinions expressed and the quality of reporting are the sole responsibility of the author(s)/consultants(s) within the framework of their terms of reference with the SPDRP.
SOPAC accepts these products as a basis for moving on and forward in carrying out its disaster management responsibilities.
Library Catalogue details:
Kaloumaira, A., 2002. Reducing the impacts of environmental emergencies through early warning and preparedness. The case of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). – The Fiji Case Study – (SOPAC Technical Report 344).
59p. ISSN: 1605–4377
1. Disaster Preparedness – Fiji 2. Emergency Management – Fiji 3. El Niño phenomena – Fiji
I South Pacific Disaster Reduction Programme (SPDRP) II Title III Series
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TABLE OF CONTENT
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT...... 5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – FIJI CASE STUDY A. Conclusions ...... 6 B. Policy Implications ...... 6 C. Country Background...... 8 D. Response to the 1997/98 ENSO ...... 13
THE FIJI SETTING Background to the Study ...... 15 Geophysical, Social and Political Setting ...... 16
NATURAL HAZARDS IN FIJI ...... 19 Disaster Management Structure in Fiji...... 19
LEVEL OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH...... 21 The Fiji Meteorology Services (FMS) ...... 21 Concurrent El Niño Impact Studies in Fiji...... 23 Mention of El Niño in the Print Media ...... 24
TELECONNECTIONS ...... 24 General Statements of ENSO Effects in the Region around Fiji ...... 24 Scientific Views about the Existence and Strength of El Niño Teleconnections to the Fiji Region .... 25 Climate-related Anomalies and Impacts of the 1982-83 Event ...... 27 1997-98 Climate-related Physical and Social Impacts of El Niño ...... 28 Reliability of Attributions ...... 47
RESPONSES Government Response or Statement issued before the Impact of the 1997-98 El Niño Appeared ... 47 Statement Issued after the Impact ...... 48 Major Responses to the Event ...... 48 Level of National Research in the Last 20 Years ...... 49 National Plan to Respond to a Disaster ...... 49 The Level of International Research about the Impacts of El Niño in Fiji ...... 49
FORECASTING BY ANALOGY ...... 50 FMS Forecasting Systems ...... 50 Responses to 1997/98 Forecasts ...... 51
POLICY IMPLICATIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSIONS ...... 51 Understanding El Niño, Definitions, Indicators and Impacts of Past ENSO Events ...... 51 Recommendations...... 55 Conclusion ...... 56
REFERENCES...... 59
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LIST OF FIGURES & TABLES
Figure 1 Map of the Fiji Group of Islands ...... 17 2 Agriculture share of the national GDP ...... 18 3 Disaster management structure in Fiji ...... 21 4 Sea Temperature difference during normal and El Niño conditions ...... 23 5 Yearly rainfall anomalies for Fiji...... 26 6 Delay phase between SOI and Rainfall Impact...... 26 7 Monthly rainfall totals for the Western Division vs monthly SOI 8 Rainfall anomaly 1987. ENSO 87/88 – Monthly rainfall totals for the Western Division vs monthly SOI...... 27 9 ENSO 97/98 – Monthly rainfall totals for Western Division vs monthly SOI ...... 29 10 Difference in sugarcane grower income between 1996 and 1998 ...... 33 11 Cropping pattern by province ...... 38 12 Source of water by province...... 40 13 Birth weights at Ba Hospital ...... 44 14 Pregnant women with anaemia at Ba Hospital...... 45
Table 1 Gross domestic product by sector 1993-1998 (constant 1989 factor cost, F$ million) ...... 19 2 Pacific island countries – estimated level of vulnerability to specific natural hazards ...... 20 3 Sugarcane district/sectors > 30% Area Losses ...... 32 4 Absorption of goods & services by sugar industry ...... 35 5 Effects on other traditional means of water sources supply – 1997 ...... 40 6 Main types of rations distributed ...... 43
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ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
The decade 1990-2000 will be well remembered as the UN declared International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR). This was the initiative that prompted Pacific Island Countries (PICs) to formulate and implement the South Pacific Disaster Reduction Programme. Driven from UNDP funding, the programme is largely responsible for heightening awareness in the region for better preparedness and mitigation planning. Hence with the on-set of the 1997/98 El Niño drought, the Fiji government was ready and keen to assess impacts and to define mitigation measures. The two drought studies funded by UNDP (“UNDAC Fiji Drought Study” and the “Regional El Niño Social and Economic Drought Impact Assessment and Mitigation Study”) did the ground-breaking work and created a logical association with this study.
There have been many valued contributions from participants to this study which are too many to thank individually. This study is indebted to them all, very senior people from within and outside government as well as friends from regional and international institutions. They have been responsible for maintaining interest at a very high level and willingly spared their time and efforts in forging the link between all three studies.
The National Disaster Management Office was a pillar of strength and smoothly co-ordinated all in-country activities and national workshops despite the hardships and political climate befalling the country over the duration of this study. Pacific island colleagues and participants to the regional workshop on ENSO Impacts on Water Resources gave valuable regional overview in their assessment and exchanges, providing useful practical information of forecasting capabilities and needs. Other study leaders from various countries around the world through sharing experiences and knowledge of El Niño gave the needed central direction as to how this study was implemented.
Without detracting anyone’s contribution, mention needs to be made of the following resource people and institutions who provided specialist support: Dr Mike Hamnett and Ms Cheryl Henderson of the Social Science Research Institute, University of Hawaii; Dr Chip Guard of the Water and Environmental Research Institute, University of Guam; Ms Nazmin Bi of the Fiji Meteorological Service; Mr W.R. Kininmonth, of the Bureau of Meteorology, Australia; Kaliopate Tavola the Team Leader of UNDP Fiji drought studies and Chris Lightfoot the UNDP consultant; and all Team Members of this study.
I am much indebted to three people who carried the most workload but at different levels. Mr Sakenasa Varea , the Deputy Study Team Leader who collated all departmental reports and organised the national workshop, Mr. Michael Glantz the Principal Research Officer and D. Jan Stewart the administrator for this study.
Finally this will not have been possible without the people who provided funds and resources – UNEP, UNFIP NCAR WMO IDNDR and UNU.
To all of you thank you very much for the support and the encouragement to see this through even beyond this study unto realisation of the vision you have defined.
Atunaisa Kaloumaira Study Team Leader Republic of the Fiji Islands
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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY – FIJI CASE STUDY
A. CONCLUSIONS
Disaster impacts of the 1997/98 ENSO-related drought in Fiji were on the verge of snowballing before its end.
The sugarcane crop rehabilitation program that was instigated by government was highly effective in aiding rapid economic recovery.
The drought highlighted the need for active cooperation between disaster managers, water users and meteorologists to develop effective and timely forecasting and warning systems. At least a 6- 12 month lead-time is required by communities to prepare. Good linkages with media organisations are required to achieve this.
All key agencies need to develop drought response strategies in the form of timely alleviation plans to act upon forecasts.
Information supply needs to be increased with the establishment of drought indexes and key monitoring strategies to assess impacts on all sectors. Health information was particularly difficult to interpret in the 1997/98 events.
Awareness and education programs are required to assist communities in drought preparedness and response.
For water management there needs to be (1) an improvement in household self reliance, (2) better management of reticulated systems, (3) identification and sustainable exploitation of groundwater resources, (4) more active management of catchment systems, including changes induced by production forestry, and (5) assessment of the vulnerability of water sources.
To protect income and production there needs to be (1) and improved understanding of drought tolerant crops and how to manage them, and (2) procedures for either moving affected stock from affected areas or providing supplementary feed.
B. POLICY IMPLICATIONS
1) Understanding ENSO · There is a general lack of understanding of the effects and indicators of ENSO and other climate effects on community vulnerability. The appropriateness of rainfall data to indicate drought was particularly unsuited to Fiji. A more appropriate method would be to define classes of drought, e.g. · Meteorological drought – based on rainfall parameters, but not useful in itself to water users. · Hydrological drought – based on river levels, in the Fiji ENSO-hydrology study this provides a better indicator of available water resources. · Agricultural drought – based on crop yield and production, provides a direct indicator on agricultural impacts. · Socio-environmental drought – based on parameters such as increase in social crimes, deterioration in health and living standards.
For these measures to be useful, there needs to be much background research into their values during past ENSO-related droughts.
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An additional area of research required in Fiji involves characterising major and minor ENSO teleconnections with local climate anomalies.
2) Individual Sector level implications
Commonalties in policy needs for all sectors include: a) Public education and awareness programs b) Organisational drought plans c) Legislative review d) Strengthening of Information Management Systems
Water Resources and the environment · A concerted effort to develop a national water resource plan, including sources and sinks, to link with drought management plans and irrigation schemes. · Remote sensing tools need to be applied to produce vulnerability maps and monitor use and conservation of water resources. · Rainfall data needs to be converted into other indicators of drought that are more meaningful to key agencies and the public. · The policy of supplying emergency water on demand needs to be reviewed to avoid developing a culture of dependence.
Food and Nutrition · Background levels of malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies exist in many areas of the country and these issues need to be addressed if drought impacts are to be alleviated. · Policies to alleviate these issues need to be based at the community level and coordinate partnerships between agencies such as agriculture, community health and nutrition, district developments, and community organisations. · Government supplied rations should be changed to more effectively alleviate malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies, particularly when long-term supplementation is planned. · Given that forecasts are available, promotion of traditional food preservation practices should be carried out, and possibly supplemented by income generation promotion from these. · A long-term measure could be the investigation of micronutrient supplementation of food, as is being carried out with Iron in flour.
Agriculture · More strategic planning ahead of droughts can alleviate impacts on agriculture, using existing policies. · Since the largest impact was on the sugar industry, and this in turn caused the greatest human suffering, acceleration of the crop diversification program for Fiji is required. · Land zonation policies should also be developed and enforced to encourage suitable uses of land marginal for sugar production. · An infrastructure and policies need to be developed to support small-livestock holdings with supplementary feed supplies, perhaps involving molasses from local sugar mills.
Meteorology, planning and other services · To improve the value of forecasting more dialogue is needed with information end-users to review terminology in use. · Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) should be proactive in improving the predictability of ENSO events and their impacts.
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· Research into local ENSO teleconnections and other climatic reactions needs to be encouraged within internal agencies (FMS, University of the South Pacific), and in requests to external bodies and regional organisations. · Drought vulnerability and risk maps should be prepared as planning tools. · Education of ENSO and its effects need to be strengthened. · Policies on school placement, transport, water and food supplies need review. · Minimum housing standards require review focussing on self-sufficiency and integrity of water supplies. · Provision of micro-finance in rural areas needs to be investigated.
3) National Policy Considerations
Drought monitoring indicators need to be established and researched, particularly in areas of health, education and social issues. These indicators need to better quantify long-term impacts. Economic mitigation and alleviation strategies for droughts should be emplaced rapidly, considering the major negative impacts the 1997/98 events had on the economy.
Working definitions of drought need to be established, to define medium and long-term impacts plus the cost/benefits of mitigation strategies.
C. COUNTRY BACKGROUND
The Republic of Fiji, located in the southwest Pacific Ocean, consists of more than 300 islands (97 inhabited) with a land area of around 18 000 km2. The two major islands (Viti Levu and Vanua Levu), contain over 93% of the c. 800 000 population, with the remainder widely dispersed to outer islands. Fiji is subject many types of hazard with arguably the most frequent and severe being tropical cyclones.
The tropical climate of Fiji has a distinct wet and dry season, and rainfall is strongly affected by predominant south-easterly trade winds, which generally keep the south-eastern portions of the main islands cool and wet, while the western regions are normally much drier.
Since independence the economy of Fiji was traditionally based upon export of sugar, with additional income from tourism, other forms of agriculture and mining. Diversification of the economy now means that tourism and light industry (including garment manufacture) are making up significant portions of GDP. Despite this however, the sugar industry and subsistence agriculture support the majority of the Fijian population. The sugar industry is concentrated in the driest western portions of the islands.
1) Research into ENSO impacts in Fiji
The primary agency for meteorological monitoring forecasting and research in Fiji is the Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS). This organisation has strong professional linkages with equivalent groups in New Zealand, Australia and the Pacific ENSO Application Centre in Hawaii. Despite having a strong competency in forecasting and monitoring, the FMS does not have the capacity for sophisticated research into ENSO phenomena or impacts in the country. Some statistical comparative studies are made with cyclone occurrences in relation to ENSO events, but no other detailed studies are carried out.
Due to the disastrous impacts of the 1997/98 El Niño event in Fiji, the government requested the UN Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) Team to assess the effects of the drought and advise on mitigation measures. Following from this UNDP and NZ Overseas Development Assistance sponsored a study into the socio-economic impacts of the 1997/98 El Niño in Fiji and
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Tonga. In addition to these two studies a national and a regional workshop were held in Fiji to disseminate the study findings and to bring together the various diverse agencies involved in managing ENSO impacts (particularly droughts).
2) National planning for disaster response
A National Disaster Management structure within Fiji has been established over the last seven years with the assistance of the South Pacific Disaster Reduction Program (a UNDP initiative in response to the International Decade for Disaster Reduction). This structure involves both government and NGO groups, with aims of coordinating and improving all aspects of risk management in the country.
3) Forecasting capacity
The Fiji Meteorological Service has the equipment, skills and contacts to enable forecasting of El Niño conditions up to 12 months before their onset. Forecasting is made via (1) general monthly rainfall pattern analysis, (2) analysis of past ENSO events, (3) rain forecast models (both locally- and foreign-developed), and (4) regional prediction models from foreign agencies.
4) ENSO effects in the Fiji Region
Fiji is a country normally affected by frequent tropical cyclones. ENSO events tend to push normal areas of cyclone generation eastward, hence during ENSO years, many cyclones tracked to the east of Fiji.
The most serious effect of strong ENSO events in the Fiji region is that of reduction in rainfall and eventual drought. However, since Fiji lies within the transition zone of the Southern Oscillation, the effects of ENSO events are not always distinct. Often there is a significant (4-6 month) delay between ENSO indicators and the onset of damaging drought in Fiji (eg. in 1982 and 1997), although ENSO events beginning in the dry season may show up earlier in reduced rainfall (eg. 1987). Once begun in the western parts of the main islands, ENSO droughts spread firstly along the northern coasts and eventually to the islands in the southeast of the Fiji group over 6-12 months. Recent ENSO drought conditions have lasted for between 12 months (1982/83 and 1987) and 18 months (1997/98) and have been the worst droughts recorded in the country.
5) 1997/1998 ENSO Event Physical impacts
Two months after the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) dropped below zero, rainfall began to decrease from normal levels in Fiji (May 97), the depression in rainfall lasted for 18 months. Islands in the western part of Fiji were first affected by drought conditions in September 1997. The drought then proceeded eastwards. Total rainfalls in northern, central and western areas of Fiji were 22-42% of normal values between February-October 1998. Many sites recorded monthly rainfalls less than 10% of normal values during the middle of 1998. Interior areas of the main Fijian island began to show drought impacts toward the end of 1998, before the drought broke in October.
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6) 1997/1998 ENSO Event Socio-economic impacts
A string of six preceding natural disasters since 1992 in Fiji had, through a cumulative effect, stretched the natural coping mechanisms of the Fijian informal sector (extended family and village support systems), and checked the overall economy. The 1997/98 drought is now known to be the most damaging ever in Fiji, and one of the worst disasters to have ever hit the nation.
Primary Industries
Sugar industry Sugarcane areas, concentrated in the western and northern parts of the main islands of Fiji roughly correspond to the most drought-prone areas of the nation. The labour-intensive industry is well organised and regulated through a series of districts and sectors, managed by the Fiji Sugar Cooperation. Within the sectors, are 17 500 growers on various scales, mostly family- based small units, many which have other families that depend on the grower for employment and income. The entire industry supports around 25% of Fiji’s population, around 200 000 people.
The 1997/98 drought caused a 5% drop in the planted area of sugar cane, but more importantly, of the crop that was left, 25% was wiped out. National production loss was around 50% (c. F$104 million), far greater than had ever occurred in any of the previous six natural disasters (droughts and cyclones). Worst production losses were from marginal lands, closest to the sea and on steep slopes.
Impacts on 1998 grower income were buffered by pricing protection at three times the market price on sugar exports (under the Lomé Convention), however, 77% of farmers still received less income or even none (33%) during the drought. Average farm-dependent family incomes dropped from F$3500 to F$1500 and below. Food gardens, normally supplementary to the lives of these families were also destroyed in the drought.
Responses in sugar-cane areas included provision of supplementary rations, by the government, Red Cross and community organisations. These were targeted to either worst-affected areas or to specific worst-affected farms. NGO’s targeted special needs groups that had been overlooked, including children and lactating mothers. Additional response included a major government- funded crop rehabilitation program, through which most resources went into replanting sugar cane stocks. Little benefit from this program reached small-holders and farm-labourers.
Needs identified in sugarcane areas included: · Review relief food criteria and policy · Discontinue sugarcane planting on marginal land, instead encourage other tree crops · Introduce irrigation to intensify some suitable areas of production · Provide grants for drainage maintenance · Supply vegetable seeds and rations on a food for labour basis · Provide access to credit and micro-finance
Long-term impacts on the sugar industry were avoided because the government provided a large capital boost with the crop rehabilitation program. This enabled a rapid return to production and improved plant stock and fertilisation that was already well overdue in many areas.
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Other agriculture and forestry
Rural subsistence, although estimated at only 3.8% of GDP, plays a role in the support of 80% of Fiji’s population. To increase the economic robustness of communities, in 1995 the government instigated a program to commercially develop selected (but existing) high value crops. Despite these programs, impacts on subsistence food supply were severe.
Agricultural drought development followed that of the meteorological drought, from NW -SE through the main islands and Fiji Group. At all times production was relatively unaffected in the central and southern windward coastal belt of Viti Levu. Only minor areas of irrigated agriculture exist in the drought-affected zones.
Food security issues as a result of the drought were monitored from March 1998, although the absence of drought rating classifications and indicator monitoring systems made it difficult to substantiate the large losses thought to exist. In the sugarcane belt, food crops were completely devastated. Export vegetables and root crops were reduced to 50%, and in the peak production months of June-July no plantings were possible and planting materials were often wiped out. The secondary hazard of wildfires, particularly in the north of Fiji damage up to 40% of cultivated crops and up to 10% of native forest – removing an additional source of supplementary food. Livestock fatalities within the nations 28 000 cattle and 190 000 small ruminants had begun by the end of the drought. Around 55% of these animals are kept on small-holdings in drought- affected areas. Pastures were destroyed and supplementary feed was unavailable. During the drought, the instances and extent of forest fire were greater than normal and forest crops in several areas of thin topsoil were severely damaged. In addition, the fisheries sector noted an increase in lower-value species in catch composition during the ENSO event, although this recovered following its end.
Responses in this sector included a rehabilitation program begun in May 1998, targeting food security. This involved establishing “stock” farms of planting material in strategic areas both within and outside of drought-prone locations. FAO provided seed material and project funds following its own assessment, the Foundation of the Peoples of the South Pacific (FSP Fiji) targeted boarding school plantations with their assistance.
The needs identified in this sector included:
· To meet food and planting material shortages through low-technology means. · To address long-term food supply issues of malnutrition and anaemia. · Re-develop education and awareness programs targeted at food security. · To establish a drought-rating classification and identify reliable monitors. · To establish databases and disaster management plans for this sector.
Medium to long-term impacts have been slight, and long-term impacts were mostly confined to the tree-crop sector (Pine, Cocoa and Coconuts). Despite these impacts, aspects of the drought proved of positive benefit to the production forest industry, enabling improved access to logging areas. Other medium-term impacts were that improved grazing pastures in many areas needed re-establishment.
Water supply and hygiene
Metered water in Fiji is derived entirely from surface sources and supplied to urban areas, covering up to 70% of the population. Rural supplies are derived from surface sources, in addition to local wells and roof-rainfall-catchment systems. There tends to be very little storage capacity in rural systems, because rainfall is generally high and well distributed throughout the year.
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Water supply shortage affected both urban and rural systems in drought areas, schools were particularly badly affected. This resulted from both inadequacies in rural storage systems and poor maintenance and networking of metered systems. Groundwater was more extensively utilised in some areas where operational boreholes were located.
Over 33% of all drinking water samples collected during the drought by UNDAC were biologically unsafe for consumption, and there was little follow-up remedial action from these results. Hygiene standards dropped further where flush-toilet systems could not be operated and greater use was made of pit-latrines and communal facilities. In addition, due to a greater consumption of packaged food, a sharp increase in litter was noted.
Response to water shortages were government funded water deliveries (by truck or boat) to all affected areas, beginning in some areas in October 1997. This cost up to F$190 000 per month. The Ministry of Health initiated the construction of pit latrines in schools along with other measures promoted during an awareness and education campaign.
Needs identified in the water sector included: · A nation-wide education and awareness program targeted at improving and maintaining roof-fed water-supply and storage systems. · Provision of assistance to sustainably develop further groundwater resources. · Rapid implementation of urban water-supply master plans. · Development and enforcement of guidelines for biological water monitoring and remediation. · Development of alternative sources, eg. solar-distillation plants, for some areas.
There were no significant long-term impacts from the drought, although it was considered that the government supply of water during the events exacerbates dependency in the community, and encourages indifference in the improvement and maintenance of local water supply systems.
Health and Nutrition
The Ministry of Health identified the onset of a potentially dangerous situation toward the end of the drought, indicated through sporadic increases in health and social problems. Remote and poorer rural areas experienced the greatest impacts. Malnutrition increased in the poorer rural areas due to the failure of domestic gardens, and the drought exacerbated existing chronic malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies. These included a high rate of anaemia that was observed in lactating mothers. Sanitary standards decreased due to lack of water, forcing the relocation of some households and increasing social discomfort in most others.
The sugarcane belt encompassed the worst-affected areas, with babies, lactating mothers and the elderly being most strongly impacted by infantile diarrhoea, malnutrition and dietary deficiency. Major contributing factors were the poor quality of delivered drinking water, loss of domestic gardens and insufficient income to purchase alternative food.
Response included government emergency food and water provision to affected families, supplemented by NGO, donor and international agency contributions of food, planting materials and cash. Around 250,000 people were provided with various rations, although in many cases, the rations were nutritionally deficient (particularly in Iron), being designed for the short period of relief required following cyclones. There were no health strategies on a national scale. Since health interventions are normally made on a case-by-case basis through doctor consultations, many cases probably went undiagnosed and untreated.
Short-term needs identified in the Health and Nutrition sector included: · A national awareness program to target micronutrient deficiencies, particularly for women at childbearing age. · Multisectoral support to the Fiji Plan of Action for Nutrition, targeted at food security.
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· Strengthening aspects of food security and feeding practices in Agriculture and Health extension programs respectively. · Consideration and development of standards for nutritional requirements within future drought rations.
There were no apparent long-term impacts on infectious disease or low birth weight, although it is considered that these would have shown up if the drought lasted any longer.
Education
Most schools suffered water-supply problems, this resulted in unsanitary conditions where flush- toilet systems failed. In addition, many boarding schools suffered from loss of food gardens, and some were closed due to poor preparation for the drought. Some school absenteeism increased because parents could not provide bus fare or food for lunch.
Response in this sector was spearheaded by a number of NGO’s, supplying food, bus fares and other assistance.
The main needs identified in the education sector were to: · Develop adequate water supply and storage systems. · Develop strategies to maintain school gardens in drought conditions.
Long-term impacts were difficult to quantify, including whether absenteeism will affect future performance and whether antisocial habits were developed during periods of absenteeism.
National Economy
The 1997/98 drought was classed as the most catastrophic natural disaster to hit Fiji this century. Negative impacts on the sugar sector were not made up for by growth in other sectors during this time. The economy was driven into recession, reducing GDP in 1997 by 3%, and in 1998 by a further 5% (against a background of 3% average annual growth over the previous five years). The rapid recovery of the sugar industry helped minimise the long-term impact, which should be insignificant in 3-4 years.
Prices remained stable throughout the drought, lack of disposable income and government food rations in affected sectors subdued demand. Interest rates were also not affected, with a major devaluation masking any drought impacts. Short-term impacts occurred on wages and employment, but levels of these quickly returned to normal following a bumper crop in 1999. Income was worst affected within around 17 000 households, directly reliant on sugar, with a further 93 000 households that were able to supplement income from other sources. Subsistence agriculture was also affected, mostly impacting on the poorest sectors of the community.
D. RESPONSE TO THE 1997/98 ENSO
Statements
Before impact of the 1997/98 ENSO, FMS suggested a possible El Niño condition within its April 1997 monthly weather summary, acting on advice from the Bureau of Meteorology of Australia. By June 1997, FMS indicated the possibility of a significant drought. No further response from key agencies were made to these warnings, due to a general state of unpreparedness and a lack of understanding of meteorological terminology.
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During and after impact several drought-specific reports were released by FMS to key government agencies. The government declared a state of emergency and dispatched senior administrators to assess and coordinate response needs. Assistance in assessment was requested from UNDP when damage exceeded the capacity of the nation to cope.
Major activities · Coordination of relevant scientific organisations in Fiji to provide more information to the public and government. · Declaration of a State of Emergency. · Provision of emergency food and water rations by government, with additional assistance from donors, international organisations and NGO’s. Food was supplied to c. 250 000 people at a cost of F$3.3 Million/month, and water supplied to >50% of the population, costing a further F$0.5 Million. · NGO and community based organisations were active in food and cash assistance to school children as well as setting up public appeals. · The Public Works Department established further groundwater supplies.
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1. THE FIJI SETTING
1.1 BACKGROUND TO THE STUDY In 1997/98 the greatest ever-recorded El Niño occurred. It prompted the four agencies supporting this study to sponsor the global documentation of El Niño societal impacts. This is to be derived from 16 country case-studies in those countries worst affected within the regions impacted by the 1997/98 event. The case studies are also aimed at determining how countries affected can be better assisted through improved El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) forecasting.
Fiji is very fortunate and grateful to be selected along with Papua New Guinea (PNG) as one of the two countries to represent the Pacific Island Countries (PICs). In September 1999 UNEP concluded a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) agreement with the South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) to undertake the Fiji case study. Immediately following this, the Fiji government endorsed the Fiji case study project. This facilitated access to government information and the release of civil servants to be Team members.
1.1.1 The Early El Niño
El Niño, in its first usage by the fishermen along the coasts of Ecuador and Peru, referred to the times when warm ocean current periodically appeared, typically around Christmas times, and flowed southward along the coast of Ecuador and Northern Peru. It is a Spanish word meaning ‘the Christ child’ or ‘the boy child’ describing these warm ocean intervals which may last several months and extend into May and June in very severs cases. The southward flowing current is in reverse direction to the much cooler, normal northward flowing current. Generally fish were less abundant so fishermen used these breaks to repair equipment and spend more time with their families1. It was noted that heavy rainstorms and floods often accompanied this phenomena causing acute disruptions to their normal lives and livelihoods. Today some argue that following El Niño, when cold currents revert back to normal, there is upswelling that brings up fish nutrients, resulting in bumper fish catches in the season that follows.
1.1.2 El Niño and Teleconnections Today
Science today links El Niño to the heating up of the Pacific Ocean along the equator and its eastward-progression. This heating up of the ocean raises sea surface temperatures. The heating progresses eastward forcing dislocations in convection and air circulation along its path. Concurrent major shifts are induced with the ocean currents flowing along the equator from the West to the East Pacific coast and southward down the Southern American coast. The combined effects of these anomalies cause remarkable and variable changes in climate pattern, in the first instance, for all countries draining into the Pacific. With increasing scientific research over the last three decades, direct links or teleconnections were also established with climate changes in regions that drain into the Indian and Atlantic Oceans. Following El Niño is a cooling period or La Niña with associated, generally reverse impact on climate changes. The severity of climate changes, primarily drought and/or extreme rainfall, is dependent on the intensity of the forcing heat processes interplaying along the equator.
The heat processes along the equator cause temperatures to oscillate between hot and cold, and force air pressures to oscillate between low and high between the West Pacific Coast and the East Pacific Coast. This is a cyclic process called Southern Oscillation and its measure is the Southern Oscillation Index – SOI. The direct link between El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and disastrous climate changes became well established within the last three decades. It owes
1 Current of Change – M. Glantz noted that in old traditional fishing, fisherman coming across pockets of cold upsurges always caught fish in abundance.
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Fiji is located within the transition zone of the Southern Oscillation. This is a reason why distinct impacts are realised only with high-intensity El Niños.
1.2 GEOPHYSICAL, SOCIAL AND POLITICAL SETTING
Fiji is a small island nation in the South Pacific. In common with other small Pacific Island states it receives much support from regional inter-governmental organisations.
1.2.1 Regional Management Support
The Pacific Ocean is the single biggest feature of the world. It is more than 70 000 000 square miles in area and more than 10 000 miles from North to South and East to West. It is currently home to 21 developing PICs. The PIC leaders have over the years established regional organisations that bond them together to serve the direct interests of the countries. The regional organisations provide applied management support in many sectors and are prominent in providing direct educational, scientific, technical, policies and good governance support. The Forum Council of Government Leaders directs the programmes of all regional organisations. The evolving regional co-operation has grown to be one of the strongest and resilient management features among PICs.
The South Pacific Applied Geoscience Commission (SOPAC) is one such independent, inter- governmental technical regional organisation. One of its mandates is to improve and strengthen national capacities of PICs to better manage natural disasters. Disaster management structures are being established in the PICs similar to that described here for Fiji.
For technical hazard information on climate and environmental affairs, the responsibility is placed with the South Pacific Regional Environment Programme (SPREP). Recently the World Meteorological Office (WMO) established a regional office in the region co-located with SPREP. This is bringing WMO focus much better on the PIC national meteorological needs. There are three other regional organisations that respectively look at tourism, fisheries and shipping.
1.2.2 Geo-Physical Features
The Fiji group of islands lies between 15-18 degrees South and 175 degrees East to 177 degrees West. It consists of over 300 islands of which about 97 are inhabited. Island types range from small atoll limestone islands, very vulnerable to drought and storm surges to larger volcanic origin islands with well-established drainage and river systems. They rise to altitudes of 1000 meters or more and have clearly demarcated wet and dry zones.
The total landmass of Fiji is about 18 272 km2. There are two main islands, Viti Levu (10.4K km2) and Vanua Levu (5.5K km2) that comprise 88% of the total landmass.
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [17]
Projection: Longitude / Latitude 12°S 178°E 179°E 180°E 179°W 178°W 177°W Date: 18/12/2000
Author:
Uea Island Scale: 1:4,000,000 ROTUMA ISLAND (FIJI) 0 40.0 80.0
km 13°S Fiji Islands
14°S (c) SOPAC Regional Data Centre 1998 (FM) ILE FUTUNA Ile Alofi
15°S
Thikombia Island (FIJI) 16°S Vetauua Island (FIJI) Kia Mali RINGOLD ISLES YANGGANGA YASAWA Yandua NGGAMEA MATATHAWA LEVU 17°S NAVITI Namenalala Naitamba Kaimbu LAU GROUP WAYA KORO Vatu Vara Wakaya Tuvutha Malolo Thithia VITI LEVU Nairai 18°S NGAU Nayau LAKEMBA Vanua VatuAiwa MBENGGA Oneata VATU LELE MOALA Mothe Namuka Llau KANDAVU TOTOYA 19°S Kambara Matuku Fulanga
Vatoa 20°S
Ona Llau
21°S
Figure 1 : Map of the Fiji Group of Islands
The terrain of Fiji’s main island is very rugged and steep with less than 18% of the land arable (mostly around coastal areas). The prevailing Southeast Trade Wind brings rains to heavily rain- forested eastern zones, leaving dry the Western leeward zone. With very heavy and high intensity rainfall, soil erosion continually remains a very big concern. Cumulative erosion over the years has resulted in raised riverbeds leading to increasing incidences of flooding.
1.2.3 Socio Economic Features
Fiji is an independent island nation having a two- house parliament, the Lower House being elected every five years. The Senate or Upper House is by nomination. The population of Fiji was 775 077 at the 1996 census2. There are two predominant races Fijians and Indians. The Indians are traditionally successful traders, professionals, business entrepreneurs and sugarcane farmers whereas Fijians have historically opted for the service industries and subsistence farming. Fijians own about 85% of the land and derive subsistence livelihood from it. Of the total population, over 75% live on the main island of Viti Levu and 18% in Vanua Levu. The remaining 7% are distributed over 95 other islands in a scatter that makes it difficult for planning.
2 Bureau Of Statistic 1996 Census of Population and Housing. Current population is closer to 800,000.
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [18]
Fiji has historically been heavily reliant on export revenue earnings from its sugar sales with lesser support from mining and other agricultural production. With a large populace reliant on subsistence farming, agriculture is fundamental to the livelihood of about three-quarters of Fiji’s population. This heavy reliance on agriculture and its attendant high risk from natural hazards (particularly cyclones), has prompted a policy shift which in the last two decades saw the economy actively promoting tourism and a garment industry.
Suburban development in Fiji has established along the coastal belt and flood plains. In past cyclone and flood disasters the sectors that have been hit hardest were housing, water supplies, infrastructures and agriculture. Drought has also adversely impacted water sources and agriculture. Understanding the social and economic impact of the drought is important since Fiji relies heavily on agriculture and tourism for employment and foreign revenue. It has been estimated that natural disasters cut up to 50 percent from the economic growth rate of Fiji.3 (Benson, 1996).
Figure 2: Agriculture Share of the National GDP. Ref: Development Strategy for Fiji 1997; Ministry of National Planning
Sugar cane comprises the major agriculture activity and is the economic backbone for the country. It is planted as rain-fed production on the dry leeward side for higher sugar quality content. This however leaves it highly vulnerable to El Niño-induced drought and its associated community social problems as the industry is very farm-labour intensive, with the majority of workers living on income bordering on the poverty threshold for Fiji.
The contribution of other sectors to GDP is presented in Table 1.
3 Benson, C. (1996). The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters, Case Study Fiji. This study done by the British Government and includes case studies in Asia as well.
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [19]
Table 1: Gross Domestic Product by Sector 1993-1998 (constant 1989 factor cost, F$ million).
1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 Sector (F$m) (F$m) (F$m) (F$m) (F$m) (F$m)
Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing 337.8 374.8 362.8 369.7 323.6 289.8 of which - Sugarcane 147.8 172.5 153.1 152.1 116.3 72.1 - Subsistence 104.0 105.0 106.1 107.5 108.4 109.3 Mining and Quarrying 50.9 46.2 46.7 61.2 62.7 49.8 Manufacturing 249.7 267.2 267.7 276.9 267.5 258.7
Construction 78.0 77.3 81.4 83.1 82.3 80.7
Trade, Hotels, Cafes, etc. 258.7 273.1 299.4 307.9 310.2 286.0 Transport and Communications 192.7 202.9 222.7 236.3 245.3 252.1
Finance, Insurance, Real Estate 242.3 252.0 257.0 255.5 249.1 249.0
GDP at Factor Cost 1,707.5 1,794.3 1,840.1 1,902.3 1,868.5 1,795.3 Memorandum Items
GDP at Market Prices 2,521 2,672 2,799 2,976 3,033 3,129
Sugar Production ('000 tons) 442 517 454 454 347 215 Visitor Arrivals ('000) 287 319 318 340 359 373
Source: Government of the Fiji Islands: Supplement to the 1999 Budget Address
Reference : Regional El Niño Social and Economic Drought Impact Assessment and Mitigation Study (C. Lightfoot)
1.2.4 Political Setting
The beginning period of the study, in late 1998, coincided with intense political campaigning in the Fiji Islands culminating in the 1999 May general election that saw a new government voted in. There were strong racial undercurrents and tension as campaigns were run on racial divides, propelled from a public lack of understanding of the new Constitution emplaced during the height of the 1997 drought. The new government was just a year in office when armed civilians in May 2000 stormed Parliament in staging a coup. To date Fiji is under martial law with the Constitution abrogated. Rebels in the Parliament Complex held the former Prime Minister and colleagues hostage until their release on July 12th. These events created challenges to the study team to remain focussed on the task at hand, particularly in the latter compilation stages when tension was high in the country.
2. NATURAL HAZARDS IN FIJI
Fiji has a wet and hot season from November to April and a cold and dry season from May to October. When El Niño forms in the late and early part of the year, dry conditions are accentuated. Similarly, La Niña can cause heavier floods in the wet season. Cyclones are most likely to occur between October and May, known as the cyclone season. Other climate-related hazards affecting Fiji include: floods, drought, storm surges, landslides and forest fires.
2.1 DISASTER MANAGEMENT STRUCTURE IN FIJI
The Pacific Island countries are vulnerable to a number of natural disasters as indicated in the Table 2.
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [20]
Table 2: Pacific island countries -Estimated level of vulnerability to specific natural hazards [South Pacific Disaster Reduction Programme “Final Report for International Decade For Natural Disaster Reduction” – Dr.Jack Rynn) ]
Country Population Land Area Tropical Storm Flood Flood Earthquake Drought Tsunami Landslide Volcano km2 Cyclone Surge Coast River
240 Cook Islands 19 500 H H M M L H M L - Federated 701 States 114 800 M M H - L H H L - of Micronesia 18 272 Fiji 752 700 H H H H H H H H L 725 Kiribati 76 000 L M H - L H H L -
181 Marshall 50 000 H H H - L H H L - Islands
Nauru 10 500 21 L L L - L H L L -
258 Niue 2300 H H L - M H M L -
494 Palau 21 600 H H M - L H M L -
462 243 Papua New 4 056 000 H H H H H H H H H Guinea 2935 Samoa 163 000 H H H H M L H H M
Solomon 28 370 Islands 337 000 H H H H H H H H H
12 Tokelau 1600 H H H - L H H L -
720 Tonga 97 400 H H H M H H H L H
24 Tuvalu 9100 H M H - L M H L -
12 200 Vanuatu 156 500 H H H H H H H H H
In 1994 with the assistance of UNDP the PICs started implementation of the current regional programme “South Pacific Disaster Reduction Programme” aimed to strengthen national capacities and institutional building in disaster management.
Fiji now has a National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) which is secretariat to a National Disaster Management Council (NDMC) that reports directly to Cabinet. The NDMC has subcommittees for mitigation; emergency operations; education and preparedness. The NDMO coordinates operations at national level, for which it has set up cross-sectoral Working Groups. The structure is taken down through national administrative structures to divisional, district and village levels. The non-government sector is drawn-in and included at all levels.
Disaster Management is supported by Fiji’s National Disaster Management Plan and the 1999 Fiji Natural Disaster Act that gave the plan legislative powers.
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [21]
National Disaster Management Structure
Cabinet
National Disaster Management Council
National Disaster Management Committees Secretariatt National Disaster Management Office
Emergency and Response Committee Mitigation Committee Preparedness and Education Committee Didivisonal Disaster Management Committees
Work Groups Work Groups Work Groups District Disster Management Committees as and when needed as and when needed as and when needed
Task Force Task Force Task Force as required as required as required
Figure 3. Disaster Management structure in Fiji.
Under the guidance of SPDRP other PICs are developing similarly as Fiji in establishing their disaster management structures. All are supported by training, education and awareness programmes, development of manuals and implementation of pilot mitigation projects.
3. LEVEL OF SCIENTIFIC RESEARCH
In Fiji, not much is known to people outside research circles of the level of scientific research relating to El Niño. The Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) has undertaken studies on the relationships between ENSO and Fiji’s climate, particularly on rainfall and tropical cyclones (running statistical analysis of the frequency and severity of tropical cyclones during past ENSO and normal years, since 1840). But their research does not include sophisticated studies such as interaction of Sea Surface Temperature (SST), Fiji’s climate and the behavior of the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ).
3.1 THE FIJI METEOROLOGY SERVICES (FMS)
FMS is responsible for weather research and forecasting and is the sole agency with interest in weather research in Fiji. Prior to the 1992 El Niño drought, there has been little El Niño research in Fiji. However since the Fiji Meteorology Services has a long-term close association with the national meteorological services of New Zealand and Australia, it is recipient to their research findings and analysis. Establishing the Pacific ENSO Application Centre (PEAC) in Hawaii has added another support agency to Fiji. Recently the FMS Nadi Centre has been designated a Regional World Meteorology Office increasing the number of supporting agencies to Fiji and the region.
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [22]
3.1.2 Fiji ENSO Phenomenon
The FMS acknowledged in its country report presented at “The Regional Workshop on ENSO Impacts On Water Resources in the Pacific” that it is important to gauge the level of scientific research relating to El Niño in Fiji. It provided the following description of the El Niño phenomena in relation to the region surrounding Fiji.
El Niño is the term used for the oceanographic phenomenon that is an extensive warming of the upper ocean in the tropical eastern Pacific, lasting three or more seasons. In normal conditions, known as the Walker Circulation, the relatively cold water of the Humboldt Currents flows northward along the coast of Peru and Ecuador to the Equator when it turns westward and flows into the central Pacific along the Equator. As it flows West the water is heated by tropical sun. During these normal conditions, equatorial western Pacific is about three to eight degrees centigrade warmer than the Eastern water. Typically, the trade winds collect moisture from these warm seas and carry it towards Indonesia. Moving over normally warm waters, moist air rises to high altitudes and is associated with regions of low air pressure that produces cumulonimbus clouds and rain. At high altitudes the air circulates back towards the east before sinking over the eastern Pacific Ocean bringing with it high pressure systems and dry conditions. This pressure gradient draws the moist trade winds towards the Australian/Indonesian region. This climatic system is illustrated in Figure 4. The intensity of this system varies between years and consequent shift back and forth of the atmospheric mass and pressure patterns along the equator is known as Southern Oscillation (SO). The oscillation is irregular, but normally occurs every two to seven years.
Since EL Niño events are closely linked with SO, they are collectively known as El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The magnitude and the phase of ENSO events are measured by calculating the difference in atmospheric pressure at surface between Tahiti and Darwin. The relationship is known as the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI).
During ENSO years the Walker Circulation weakens. An early sign of an approaching El Niño event is the appearance of anomalously warm surface waters in the eastern tropical Pacific off the coast of Peru. As the event develops, the trade winds weaken and may even turn westerly. The area of warm water usually found in the western Pacific cools with the warmest water being displaced eastward to the central and eastern Pacific. Sustained warming in excess of one degree centigrade above normal is observed in this NIÑO3 region (the expanse of ocean from 150ºW to 90ºW between 5ºN to 5ºS). Lower than normal pressure is observed in the eastern tropical Pacific and higher than normal pressure is observed over Indonesia and northern Australia. The region of high pressure develops over the western Pacific, whereas regions of low pressure develop over central and eastern Pacific, hence the SOI is strongly negative. Abnormally dry conditions are observed in the western Pacific with the eastward shift of the thunderstorm activities to the central and eastern Pacific.
Also, during an ENSO event, the zone of cloud and rain known as South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ), which normally extends from the Solomon Islands across to beyond Samoa, broadens and shifts northeast to merge with another rainfall zone (Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ)) that lies north of the equator. This dramatically increases rainfall in the normally dry areas along the equator and generally decreases rainfalls in the southwest of this merged zone. Since these anomalies tend to persist for several months, accurate long-range forecasts (one to three seasons) are possible.
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [23]
Figure 4: Sea Temperature Difference During Normal and El Niño Conditions
Reference : FMS Paper: 97/98 Drought Assessment and Forecasting Systems Used by Fiji Meteorological Service; Nazmin Bi, Fiji Meteorological Service.
3.2 CONCURRENT EL NIÑO IMPACT STUDIES IN FIJI
Owing to the unprecedented damaging impacts of the 1997/98 El Niño event, the Fiji government asked the United Nations in August 1998 to undertake an independent assessment of the impact of the El Niño induced drought and advise on measures that could be used to alleviate its effects. The UN Disaster Assessment and Coordination (UNDAC) Team identified emergency measures required to alleviate immediate the situation and its findings were used by the Government to help in planning the relief effort. It undertook damage and needs impact assessment of the worst hit areas and sectors. In addition to the initial UNDAC study, UNDP and New Zealand Overseas Development Assistance (NZODA) jointly sponsored a regional initiative titled “The 1997/98 EL Niño Socio-Economic Regional Study”. This regional study was piloted in Fiji and Tonga. It assessed the long-term impacts; identified vulnerable groups; estimated the likely extent and timing of the impacts; and recommended medium and long term measures that could be used to mitigate the impact of future events.
There were two further important drought study-related events in 1999.
· In June 1999 a Fiji national Workshop was convened to discuss the findings of the UNDP/NZODA study. This was run in association with the University of Hawaii. They provided
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [24]
two resource persons who had earlier completed drought-response-mitigation research work in the North Pacific countries during the 1997/98 El Niño event.
With additional funding support from UNEP and the British High Commission, Fiji in October 1999 hosted the Pacific Regional ENSO Water Resource Impacts Workshop. The Workshop, convened by SOPAC, was aimed at upgrading forecasting, assessment, planning and adaptation skills. It brought together water resource planners, water supply managers and disaster managers and gave them access to the necessary information and tools to benefit from new forecasting capabilities and understanding of the ENSO phenomenon. There were eighty participants from Pacific Island Countries together with representative of international and regional organisations. As SOPAC was co-ordinating these activities, the opportunity was taken to extend the Fiji case study questionnaire survey to other Pacific countries. An exciting discussion ensued in the regional workshop on forecasting needs. Recommendations from this regional meeting to improve forecasting and warning system are included in this report.
3.3 MENTION OF EL NIÑO IN THE PRINT MEDIA
Neither the local media nor the general public were significantly aware of ENSO until the 1992 drought event. It is probable the local media first reported on El Niño in 1987 but it is not certain that El Niño details were publicly reported along with the earlier events. However scientific journals and overseas newspapers are accessible in the country from which interested groups and individuals keep up with international news and events. In 1997, the FMS had forecasted in April the development of an El Niño condition; however this was only first reported in the local media in October.
4. TELECONNECTIONS
Teleconnection is difficult to explain explicitly to a non-meteorological audience. Mr W. W. R. Kininmonth (Bureau of Meteorology, Australia) explains that teleconnection patterns are a consistent climatological response of large-scale features of the atmosphere to systematic forcing (by ENSO). Empirical teleconnection patterns derived from identifying characteristic climate responses during past El Niño events (systematic forcing of the equatorial Pacific Ocean) have been used to describe large-scale features of the variability of the atmosphere circulation, as well as tropical and extra-tropical precipitation and temperature relationships.
4.1. GENERAL STATEMENTS OF ENSO EFFECTS IN THE REGION AROUND FIJI
The islands of the South Pacific have small land masses with rapid response to climatological changes. During a typical El Niño event the easterly Trade Winds across the tropical Pacific Ocean weaken or even reverse and the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) shifts eastward. As a result of the eastward shift in convection, islands of the South West Pacific, including Fiji, experience reduced rainfall, while those near the International Date Line and farther east receive enhanced rainfall.
4.1.1 Cyclones and ENSO In the normal non El Niño years, Fiji cyclones are generated from equatorial heat and climatic low pressures in the region of Solomon Islands and Vanuatu.4 These track away to cooler regions
4 Dr. Basher and Dr. Zheng of NIWA researched 20 years of past data calculating the average chance of a cyclone affecting each place in the region.
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [25] mostly in a southerly to easterly direction. Tropical cyclones of the South Pacific form where there is active surface convergence of the wind field over very warm waters, normally in the active SPCZ that lies in the vicinity of the Solomon Islands and Vanuatu. After formation, many tropical cyclones intensify over the very warm waters as they move southeastward with the middle-level airflow and affect the Fiji and Tonga groups.
During the 1997/98 El Niño, the eastward shift of the SPCZ to the central Pacific manifested itself as equatorial ocean heating. For the regions south of the equator, it meant that tropical cyclones were also generated farther eastward and to the north of Fiji. Tropical Cyclones (TC) Wes, Martin, Ron and Alan typified these. The TCs built up intensity as they moved southeastward and brought wind and rain damage to Samoa and the Northern Cooks to the east of Fiji. The eastward shift of the weather patterns meant that Fiji and Tonga did not receive their normal seasonal rainfall.
4.1.2 Drought and ENSO
Many islands of the southwest Pacific suffered drought during the 1997/98 El Niño event. Drought first affected Papua New Guinea in the west, then Solomon Islands about four months later. It then was felt in Fiji about six months later again and Tonga three months after Fiji as the equatorial convection and SPCZ shifted eastward. The typical climate anomaly for Fiji during an El Niño event is for drier and hotter conditions during the wet and hot season, particularly from December to February and drier and cooler conditions in the cool and dry season, particularly between June to August.
4.2 SCIENTIFIC VIEWS ABOUT THE EXISTENCE AND STRENGTH OF EL NIÑO TELECONNECTIONS TO THE FIJI REGION
From its current research into ENSO, the FMS has provided the following information.
Correlation between the SOI and the rainfall in Fiji is not clearly defined but it is most pronounced during ENSO events. To some extent, it does indicate how much rainfall Fiji may receive in coming months, and therefore, there is more confidence in forecasts of Fiji rainfall during strong ENSO events.
El Niño is recognised as the major cause of drought in Fiji. However, since Fiji is in the transition zone of the SPCZ the timing and duration can vary. There may be a delay between the onset of an ENSO event and the impact on the climate of Fiji, depending on when the SPCZ begins to shift eastward.
There have been frequent occurrences of ENSO events in the last three decades. The effect of ENSO on rainfall is clearly evident in Fiji (Figure 5). Note that La Niña (the cold phase of ENSO and positive SOI) has a positive affect on Fiji’s rainfall, i.e. above-normal rainfall may be expected during a La Niña event. There is also a delay between the SOI phases and the impact on rainfall in Fiji. This delay was quite evident during past events, like the 1997 event (Figure 6). The phase delay provides the opportunity of four to six months lead-time for the nation to prepare for a period of dry weather and possibly drought.
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [26]
Yearly Rainfall Total Anomalies for Fiji
15000
10000
5000
0 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997
millimetres -5000
-10000
-15000
-20000 year Figure 5: Yearly Rainfall Anomalies for Fiji. Note the El Niño and the La Niña years in the above two figures. El Niño: 1957; 1965; 1969; 1977; 1982; 1987; 1991-1995; 1997. La Niña: 1971; 1973; 1975; 1989; 1996.
[Reference : FMS Paper: 97/98 Drought Assessment and Forecasting Systems Used by Fiji Meteorological Service; Nazmin Bi, Fiji Meteorological Service.]
FIGURE 2 Lag Phase Jan 1997 - Apr 1999 Monthly SOI vs 5 Month Running Mean
3 Monthly SOI 5 months running mean 2
1
0 jul jul jan feb apr jun oct jan apr jun oct feb apr mar may aug sep nov dec feb mar may aug sep nov dec jan mar
Index Value -1
-2
-3
-4 month Western Division - Jan 1997- Apr 1999 Monthly Total Rainfall vs Monthly Average Rainfall
4000 Monthly Total Rainfall Monthly Average Rainfall 3500 FIGURE 3
3000
2500
2000 millimetres 1500
1000
500
0 jul jul jan jun oct jan jun jan feb aug sep dec feb apr aug sep oct dec apr mar apr nov mar nov feb mar may month may
Figure 6: Delay Phase Between SOI and Rainfall Impact.
[Reference: FMS Paper: 97/98 Drought Assessment and Forecasting Systems Used by Fiji Meteorological Service; Nazmin Bi, Fiji Meteorological Service.]
4.2.1 Local Observation on the Progression of 1997/98 El Niño
The impacts of the 1997/98 drought on water reserves and agriculture were first felt in the north- western Yasawa Island Group in about November 1997. By April 1998 agricultural drought had
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [27]
progressed to the North coastal belt of Viti Levu and by August the effects were being felt in the north-western coast of Vanua Levu. By October, the agriculture impacts were felt in the smaller islands of the Lau group to the southeast of Fiji.
In October 1998 the south-eastern coastal belt of Viti Levu began experiencing low stream flows and surface water shortages (hydraulic drought). However the windward foothills continued to receive rainfall without any apparent impacts of the El Niño. The local topography and prevailing south-easterly Trade Winds provided sufficient low-level convergence to generate convection and rainfall despite the regional Teleconnection Pattern that was unfavourable to rainfall. Such connections and interactions at the local or micro level are poorly understood and require more scientific study.
4.3 CLIMATE-RELATED ANOMALIES AND IMPACTS OF THE 1982-83 EVENT
In the analysis of 1982 El Niño, the SOI started dipping negatively from end of March 1982 and reached its lowest (–35) about a year later in February 1983. There was a lag of about five months to the start of the year-long drought extending September 1982 to September 1983. However since Fiji in September was coming into its wet season, there was still enough rainfall to support agriculture. Impact on the rainfall and agriculture was acutely felt March 1983 through to September 1983 overrunning the dry and cold season with drier than normal conditions. In many areas it was the worst ever recorded drought up to then. Figure 7 shows the 1982/83 six station- monthly rainfall totals in the leeward Western Division of Viti Levu island where the bulk of Fiji’s sugar-cane is grown.
ENSO 82/83 - Monthly Rainfall Totals for Western Division vs Monthly SOI Six station average ((Nacocolevu, Nadi, Lautoka, Rarawai, Penang and Yasawas) I 4000 15 Monthly Rainfall Total 10 3500 Monthly Rainfall Normal Monthly SOI 5 3000 mil 0 lim etr 2500 -5 es SO -10 I 2000 -15
1500 -20
-25 1000 -30 500 -35
0 -40 Jan- feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec Jan- feb mar apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec 82 83 month Figure 7: Monthly rainfall totals for Western Division vs monthly SOI.
Reference: “97/98 Drought Assessment and Forecasting Systems Used by Fiji Meteorological Service”; Ms Nazmin Bi, Fiji Meteorological Service
4.3.1 Drought 1987
The 1986 El Niño was certain from about October, but before then were a series of fluctuations in the SOI. It reached its lowest value of –25 in April 1988. The effect on Fiji’s rainfall was more immediate because the El Niño established over the dry and cool season of 1987. Areas in the north-western Viti Levu were the most severely affected. For the six-month period from
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [28]
November 1986 to April 1987 it received less than 1000 mm of rainfall which is less than half of the period’s normal value. In the next six months, from May to October 1987, rainfall was less than 150 mm, compared to the 500 mm average normal rainfall for that period. The hydrological drought continued through to the whole of 1988 though rainfall had approached nearer to normal. Again there was a deficit rainfall track progressing across Fiji from west to east. Figure 8 depicts the rainfall anomaly for the Western Division.
Although in global terms, the 1982 El Niño event was more severe, the 1987 event had more impact on Fiji’s rainfall and caused the worse drought in at least 100 years.
ENSO87/88 - Monthly Rainfall Totals for Western Division vs Monthly SOI
3500 25 Monthly Rainfall Total Monthly Rainfall Normal 20 3000 Monthly SOI 15
2500 10
5
2000 0 SOI -5 1500 millimetres -10
1000 -15
-20 500 -25
0 -30 jul jul jul feb apr jun oct feb apr jun oct feb apr jun oct aug sep nov dec aug sep nov dec aug sep nov dec may may may mar mar mar Jan-86 Jan-87 Jan-88 month
Figure 8: Rainfall Anomaly 1987. ENSO 87/88 - Monthly Rainfall Totals for the Western Division vs Monthly SOI.
Reference: “97/98 Drought Assessment and Forecasting Systems Used by Fiji Meteorological Service”; Ms Nazmin Bi, Fiji Meteorological Service.
4.4 1997-98 CLIMATE-RELATED PHYSICAL AND SOCIAL IMPACTS OF EL NIÑO
Of all El Niño induced droughts, the 1997/98 event was significant from a disaster management perspective in that it brought together meteorologists, the users of rainfall information and disaster managers.
4.4.1 The Physical Impacts of the 1997-98 El Niño Event
From March 1997 the SOI dipped sharply below zero and in its April (1997) Monthly Weather Summary, Fiji Meteorological Services stated the possibility of an El Niño drought condition later in the year. This it confirmed in the May Monthly Weather Summary. The SOI reached a low of - 28 in March 1998 before it started recovering to rise above zero from May 1998.
There was a two-month lag to when the El Niño-drought developed in Fiji around May 1997 heralding an 18-month drought that continued into November 1998. In socio-economic terms, this is now known to be the worst drought on record. The 1997/98 climatic events are represented in Figure 9.
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [29]
ENSO97/98 - Monthly Rainfall Totals for Western Division vs Monthly SOI
4000 3
Monthly Rainfall Total 3500 Monthly Rainfall Normal 2 Monthly SOI 3000 1
2500 0
2000 SOI -1 millimetres 1500
-2 1000
-3 500
0 -4 jul jul feb jun oct jun oct feb apr apr apr mar aug sep nov dec feb mar aug sep nov dec mar may may may Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 month
Figure 9: ENSO 97/98 – Monthly rainfall totals for Western Division vs monthly SOI. Ref: 97/98 Drought Assessment and Forecasting Systems Used by Fiji Meteorological Service: Ms Nazmin Bi, Fiji Meteorological Service
4.4.1.1 Hydrological Drought 97/98
The effect of ENSO97 was not evident till September 1997 when most parts of Fiji recorded 20 to 50 percent below normal rainfall. The drought hit Yasawa Groups and Western Viti Levu first and then progressed eastwards to Vanua Levu. The island groups of Lomaiviti and Lau to the south- east were the last to be impacted.
The Western and North-western parts of Fiji were the most severely affected by the drought. Monthly rainfall in the Western parts of Fiji was generally far below normal until October 1998. All sites in the Northern, Central and Western parts of Fiji recorded the lowest ever rainfall totals for nine consecutive months from February to October 1998. Total rainfall amounted to between 22 percent and 42 percent of normal.
4.4.1.2 Illustrative Rainfall Monthly Anomalies
In November 1997 the western parts of Viti Levu received less than 10 mm of rainfall, which amounted to less than seven percent of normal values. Nadi recorded only 4 mm (three percent of average), which was by far the worst on record, the previous lowest monthly rainfall being 7 mm in 1953. By June and July 1998, the drought had intensified in northwestern Viti Levu. The Yasawas received less than 7mm of rainfall for the entire month of June and in July, Nadi and Ba received a total of around 1mm of rain. Other sites in western Viti Levu recorded less than 10
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [30] percent of the normal rainfall. In August the situation worsened as stations in Viti Levu, Mamanuca and Yasawa received almost nil rainfall.
The rainfall deficit for Vanua Levu appeared in March 1998 when Labasa received only 15mm of rain (four percent of normal); the previous lowest rainfall was 76 mm in 1959. The Labasa July rainfall dropped to 1 mm. However other rainfall sites in Vanua Levu lagged behind, still receiving between six percent and 19 percent of the normal rainfall in August 1998. The impacts were starting to be felt also in inland areas of Viti Levu from the third quarter of 1998.
4.4.2 The Socio-Economic Impact of the 1997/98 ENSO Event
In six years preceding 1997/98, Fiji has faced six major natural disasters; a drought in 1992, Tropical Cyclone (TC) Joni and TC Kina 1992/93, TC Gavin and TC June 1996 and the 1997/98 drought. Cumulatively the socio-economic impacts have worsened and further magnified in this very severe (record) drought. The safety checks provided by the resilient informal sector (particularly the extended family system support), were stretched leaving it exposed and vulnerable. The informal sector was the worst hit in this drought.
The 1997/98 drought is known as Fiji’s most damaging drought. And since Fiji is fundamentally agriculturally based, the adverse drought impacts on food security and water supply created increases in social stresses and deterioration in health conditions. The impacts of the drought are well documented in an UNDAC Mission Fiji Drought Report (Kaloumaira et al., 1998). When the drought broke, the quick recovery of the agriculture sector substantially limited impacts to the short-term as determined by the second UNDP study5 that looked at the long term impacts of the 1997/98 ENSO induced drought.
The high number of natural disasters creates challenging debate on how to segregate the socio- economic impacts due to each so to reach a clear conclusion on socio-economic impacts of the 1997/98 drought. However some impacts such as income figures are clearly definable.
4.4.2.1 Impacts on Primary Industries
Agriculture in Fiji has four major sub-sectors as depicted in Figure 2: · Sugar-cane · Agricultural crops and Natural Forests · Commercial Forests. · Fisheries
Damage to Fisheries was negligible but this sub sector is very important as a resource base for supplementing food and income during disasters.
4.4.2.1.1 Sugarcane
The Fiji Sugar Corporation (FSC) manages the sugar industry of Fiji. Sugarcane areas are well defined in Fiji, located on the drought vulnerable leeward West-northern halves of the two main islands of Viti Levu and Vanua Levu. There are four sugar mills; three on North- Western Viti Levu and one in Western Vanua Levu. It is a highly labour intensive crop; from planting and fertilisation through to harvesting. The only two mechanised activities are
5 Chris Lightfoot is the author of this UNDP study “Regional El Niño Social and Economic Drought Impact Assesment and Mitigation Study”. The report is with the Fiji Government and a copy is logged at the SOPAC Secretariat as SOPAC Technical Report 303. It looked at identification of the medium - to long-term impact of the 1997/98 drought; recommendation on appropriate strategies to mitigate the impact of future droughts, and development of a generalised approach to estimating the medium to long term impact of drought on small island economies.
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [31] ploughing for planting new cane seeds and cartage of harvested sugar cane to the mills. New planting is infrequent since cane is grown from ratoons with new planting only required after about five to fifteen years.
The sugar industry is very well structured. It is organised into cane districts (10) divided into sectors (40). A grower includes his own family labour and some may have up to four or five other farm-dependent families totally reliant on the success of the grower. A family averages four to 5 people. There are about 17 500 growers and 20 000 farm dependent families. In Viti Levu generally more growers’ sons and daughters move on to non-farm occupation. As a result there is a relatively larger number of farm dependent families replacing family labour. For Vanua Levu, family labour is stronger, and farm dependent families are less in number. During the harvest season, that runs at least 10 months, more labour is hired as harvesting gangs of which many come from outside the cane belts. These figures indicate why the industry is very important to Fiji generally and to disaster managers especially for logistic relief planning during the drought or other natural disaster. Inclusive of direct FSC employees, the industry is providing direct support to around 25% of the national population.
· Production Losses In the natural disasters of the past four years [the drought of 1992, Tropical Cyclone (TC) Joni and TC Kina 1992/93, TC Gavin and TC June 1996], the total area cultivated under cane has varied between 73 300 to 74 300 hectare. Cane production varied between 3.3 Million tonnes to 4.4 Million tonnes. By comparison, the 1998 dry conditions reduced planted area to 70 400 Hectare and of this 17 300 Hectares of crop (25%) were wiped out. Of the harvested crop, there were further yield losses from drought conditions as sugar cane is grown throughout as a rain-fed crop. National production loss was around 50% or 2 million tonnes representing a loss in revenue to the industry of F$104 Million.
4.4.2.1.1.1 Short term Impacts on Sugar Sub-Sector
· Marginal Lands Within the sugarcane belt the worst production losses (Table 3) were from the marginal lands closest to the sea and those planted on slopes twelve degrees and greater. These high sloping lands are actually classed as not suitable for fine tillage cultivation. These areas are also where sugarcane cropping is known to be most vulnerable to the weather. Normal average yields from these marginal lands are much less than the national average. Fiji must ask itself whether to accept these losses year in and out. These farmers face chronic indebtedness, which has been made worse by the drought.
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [32]
Table 3. Sugarcane District / Sectors > 30% Area Losses.
Source FSC. Reference: UNDAC Fiji Drought Report.
Lautoka Mill Sector Area Loss Area Loss % of Total District Ha Sector Area Lautoka (total six sectors) Drasa 850 35 Saweni 320 30 Nadi (total 7 sectors) Yako 702 44 Malolo 1122 56 Nawaicoba 1168 58 Sigatoka (total three sectors) Lomawai 690 35 Cuvu 1000 58 Olosara 715 66
Rarawai Mill District ( Ba) Rarawai (total eight sectors) Veisaru 800 37 Varavu 1380 69 Tavua (total 3 sectors) Tagitagi 1220 63 Drumasi 1455 61 Yalodro 630 39
Penang Mill (Rakiraki) Penang (total 4 sectors) Nanuku 896 62
Labasa Mill Labasa (eight sectors) FSC
· Farm Incomes The UNDP study (C. Lightfoot) determined that the impact on 1998 income was buffered by pricing protection to the European Union (under the Lomé Convention) which virtually bought the entire 1998 production of sugar at around three times the prevailing world price. The sugarcane growers receive a weighted average of the price received from all buyers, hence despite export income falling by 30 percent, payments for sugarcane rose by close to 50 percent per tonne. The graph of differences in grower’s income between 1996 & 1998 is presented in Figure 10.
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [33]
1,600 1,365
1,400 1,324 1,261 1,253 17,928 (76.7%) earned less 1,230 1,217
1,200 1,165 4,391 (18.8%) earned more 1,068
1,016 1,068 (4.6%) earned the same 1,000 909 795 800 672
600
Number of growers n.b. the 7,774 (33.2%) growers who had 447 430 no income are not shown on the graph
400 334 243 184
200 147 120 88 70 54 49 30 32 31 22 17 16 15 Source: FSC production data 9 - 10% 30% 50% 70% 90% More 110% 130% 150% 170% 190% 210% 230% 250% 270% 290% Difference in income between 1996 & 1998
Figure 10. Difference In Sugarcane Grower Income Between 1996 & 1998.
[Source: UNDP Report: Regional El Niño Social and Economic Drought Impact Assesment and Mitigation Study (C. Lightfoot)]
The graph shows that 18% of farmers received a windfall due to favourable prices. However the majority (77%) received less or nothing whilst the drought made no difference to the earning capacity of about 5% of the farmers.
The Fiji UNDAC report indicated that in normal years farm dependent families and cane cutters average F$3500 per annum, per farm labourer, but families have access to a house and a small piece of land for home gardening. Even with access to these other benefits, they border on the poverty threshold for Fiji pegged at an equivalent F$5000 annual income. During the drought, income was drastically reduced to F$1500 and below. The prolonged drought of 1997/98 made this sector even more vulnerable because home gardens withered. It increased acute poverty with more people going into the poverty bracket. For the very poor people, not only were they more exposed, they were also less able to cope.
· Fire Risk Burning is a common farm practice. Most fires lit in this drought burnt out of control due to ignorance of higher fire risks with organic fuel material during drought. There is no “fire risk indexing ” system. Higher risks were associated with:
· sugarcane farms adjoining pine forest plantations. · cane fields bordering very close onto residential houses.
Stipulating non-cane border strips of 30 to 50 metres wide around the house is a good idea to reduce fi re risks. This will also allow more room for vegetable gardening and fruit tress.
4.4.2.1.1.2 Response Within Sugarcane Sector Most food supplied were as supplementary rations through community organisations, Red Cross and government. Whilst NGOs had target groups, the government had mixed policies. Whilst in Viti Levu deliveries were to everyone in defined worst affected areas, in Vanua Levu rations were given to worst affected farms. This being defined as those producing < 30 tonnes of cane. The UNDAC report raised the question with Fiji government of how to define the appropriate criteria for food assistance and ration policies. It also made a suggestion for families to be supplied with seeds and vegetable planting material to supplement the ration.
Non-government organisations were the first to mobilise and targeted special needs groups in
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [34] affected communities such as children and lactating mothers.
With the importance of the sugar industry to Fiji’s economy, the government channelled funds to the FSC for a Crop Rehabilitation Programme (CRP). This catered mostly for the purchase of farm inputs. The benefit that did reach the vulnerable group as farm wages was just a trickle at 6% of total assistance. The rest went to land preparation 26%; seed cane purchase 37%; fertiliser purchase 27% and weedicide 4%. Well-to-do farmers with capacity to access additional enabling funds and resources were better able to exploit the CRP.
4.4.2.1.1.3 Needs in Sugarcane Areas · To review food relief criteria and policies · To discontinue sugar-cane planting on steep land and change to other tree crops in line with good land use recommendation and practices. · To introduce irrigation, intensify production on flat land and diversify other uses on sloping land as perennial fruit orchards and or pastures. · To provide grants for drainage maintenance in sugar cane areas. Currently drainage maintenance is funded from levies to farmers. · Supply of seeds with supply of rations on a food for labour basis. · Access to credit and micro-financing.
4.4.2.1.1.4 Long term Impacts on Sugar Cane Sub-Sector The UNDP study into long-term drought impacts could not quantify definite long-term impacts within the sugar cane sector. Fiji was very fortunate the drought broke early and the sugar industry recovered very quickly with the assistance of the government funded Crop Rehabilitation Programme.
· Beneficial Farm Investment Most farms are leaseholds, since 85% of the land in Fiji is owned and held communally in trust and cannot be sold. The terms for lease are currently under review with many landowners wanting changes to leasing conditions or the return of leased land to native owners. Consequently many farmers, prior to the drought, were cutting back on soil fertilisation and other farm investment on approaching the expiration of their leases. The CRP enabled farm investment in soil fertilisation and the well-overdue replacement of old ratoons with new cane seed planting.
Other impacts of the sugar industry on the Fiji economy were viewed by the UNDP study from two perspective’s: · businesses and people whose goods and services help produce sugar, and · those that purchase the output for their own use or to help in the production of other goods and services.
The sugar industry contributes 22% of the national profit and taxes and absorbs 5% of national wage and salary. Thus any disruption to sugar production has implications on the supply of goods and services to other sectors of the economy.
The values in Table 4 show the proportions of business activity absorbed by the sugar industry. It provides a guide to the importance of the sugar industry to each sector.”
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [35]
Table 4. Absorption of goods & services by sugar industry.
Share of national Item expenditure
Wages Professional 0.32% Sub-professional 0.43% Skilled 1.86% Unskilled 2.61% Total 5.21%
Surplus Unincorporated 17.7% Public sector 4.6% Total 22.3%
Goods & Services Services & Utilities 0.6% Transport & Fuel 3.9% Fertilizer 82.6% Manufactured Goods 2.5% Share of Total 7.3% Source: Sturton Input Output Table (Reference: UNDP Report: Regional El Niño Social and Economic Drought Impact Assesment and Mitigation Study (C. Lightfoot).
4.4.2.1.2 Agriculture (Non-sugar) And Natural Forests
Rural subsistence farming plays a very significant and vibrant role in supporting 80% of Fiji’s population. It contributes 3.8 % to national GDP and within the agriculture sector it is ranked second in the sector’s contribution to national GDP.
Two years prior to the drought, the Fiji government initiated a special program to commercially develop a number of selected high value crops – kava, dalo (taro), coconut and pineapple. Called the Commodity Development Framework (CDF), it was aimed to reduce vulnerability of the subsistence rural community by increasing their economic robustness.
Both the food security and CDF agricultural programs were aimed at addressing the rural subsistence farmers and their needs. The drought of 1997/98 hit hardest over the rural areas. Impacts on the agriculture sector were not apparent until early 1998. Awareness then increased quickly as the impacts on food supply became widespread. In many affected areas it totally destroyed existing farm garden crops and stalled any new plantings until the rains came in November 1998.
· Area Affected The agricultural drought first hit northwest Fiji and generally spread north and south easterly as it impacted over the Fiji Group in the 18 months of below normal rainfall. Cakaudrove Province and wetter zones of Bua were experiencing the beginnings of agricultural drought when rain started again in late September. The Lomaiviti and Lau groups to the east of Fiji were similarly just starting to experience the drought but not to the same severity as the longer affected western and northern regions. Central Viti Levu and the Southern coastal belt, on the windward side of Viti Levu remained relatively unaffected. Produce from these least affected areas was supplying local food to markets and households in drought stricken areas.
Irrigated agriculture is not very significant but does exist. These comprise:
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [36]
· Some small pumped borehole sprinkler systems in Sigatoka, Viti Levu for irrigation of vegetable crops managed jointly with government. · A major commercial pumped micro-jet irrigation system for citrus in Batiri (Vanua Levu) · A small number of major gravity fed rice irrigation schemes of Navua in Viti Levu and those adjoining the Bua-Macuata borders in Vanua Levu, managed jointly with the Agriculture department. · Two privately managed hydroponic establishments in Nadi, Viti Levu.
4.4.2.1.2.1 Short Term Impacts on Agricultural Crops The agriculture department started monitoring the drought impacts for food security purposes from March of 1998. The Director for Agriculture Extension estimated a national crop revenue loss of $15.0 Million. Most of the crop area/revenue losses in Vanua Levu were from new planting. The absence of drought rating classifications and of indicator monitoring systems is a major lesson to be learnt from this drought.
· Vegetables Assorted vegetables and herbs, some kumala (sweet potato) and rain fed rice are normally the only crops grown for food within the sugarcane belt. These were completely devastated where affected by the long drought. Export vegetables and root crop yields were reduced to only 50%.
Normally the peak maturity season for domestic crops is between June to July. As these months passed and still no new plantings were possible, food self sufficiency dropped rapidly. Planting material was very badly affected and completely wiped out in some areas.
· Fires Fire was more a secondary hazard. Damage to agricultural crop were confined mostly to Cakaudrove in Vanua Levu. In these areas fire contributed to 40% of the damage on cultivated crops. Badly affected were the localities of Tunuloa, Navatu and Natewa. Along Natewa Bay, wildfire burning damaged close to 10% of the natural forest. A vicious circle ensued as the fire damaged traditional food sourced naturally from the forests; yams and other root crops, leafy vegetables, fruit and nuts. These events affected the food supply, income and recovery capacity of rural people.
· Animal Stock Agriculture reported that of the majority of the nations 28,221 cattle, 55.4% are located in the drought affected areas of Ba, Ra, Nadroga and Navosa. These areas also rear 56% of the nation small ruminant total of 194,235 goats and sheep. These are mostly in small-holdings. These animals are a very important household source of milk and protein to majority of the drought victims. The drought demolished green feed and threatened stock population. Fatalities were beginning when rain came. Total loss in milk production and stock loss was estimated at F$10 million. 6
This situation exposed the need to explore introduction of supplementary stock feed provision to small holders.
· Natural and Commercial Forests Fires on commercial plantations frequently occur over the years. However during the drought the instances and extent of fire were much greater than before, triggered by increased drought-induced fuel material and dryness (absence of moisture) in the air. Young pine forests of eight years old in Rakiraki, growing on thin topsoil above rocks, have died in this period. The Fiji Pine Commission has undertaken it’s own inventory of damages but could not release information.
A survey of hardwood mahogany forests found incidences of mortality in plantations in this draught period. Most of the plants affected were believed still weakened and stressed from the past cyclone and droughts.
6 Sourced from Agriculture report “Proposal for Drought Assistance for Ruminant Livestock” provided by the Animal Health and Production Division, 1998
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [37]
There was reported damage also on natural forests grown on thin soil overlying volcanic rock. And along the foreshore of affected districts, coconut trees withered and toppled over in many areas.
4.4.2.1.2.2 National Response to Agricultural Damage From May of 1998 the agriculture department approved a rehabilitation programme targeted at re-establishing food security. This was extended in October to also rehabilitate commercial crops established under the Commodity Development Framework. The rehabilitation strategy included stocking planting material on “stock” farms both within drought affected areas and also in other safe localities outside of drought affected areas.
· Non-government Assistance The FAO did it’s own impact assessment. This it followed up with provision of seed material and project funds to improve information systems. More specifically, food gardens for over 137 boarding and day schools were severely damaged. Affected schools were being assisted by the Fiji branch of the non-government organisation “Foundation for the Peoples of the South Pacific” (FSP Fiji) to re-establish the food gardens. Red Cross and another NGO “Save the Children Fund” provided food rations and bus fares.
4.4.2.1.2.3 Needs in Agriculture Sector Most needs in the agriculture sector were those to meet food and planting material shortages. There was concern that closer links with National Food and Nutrition Committee and the Ministry of Health are required to address the long-term preventive measures for malnutrition and anaemia. The impact on loss of planting material has raised discussions on tissue culture. However it was felt that tissue culture involves too-advanced technology, and that farmers can avert a lot of hardships more easily by being better prepared. Departments too need to have disaster management plans complete with response, preparation and mitigation plans. This calls for establishment of databases to better monitor and plan preventive measures.
Further lessons learnt from the drought, include that more research is needed in drought rating classification and identification of reliable indicators for monitoring. The Agriculture department needs to re-evaluate its public education awareness program in line with available forecasts from FMS.
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [38]
Central Province Western Province
Other Crops Yam 10% 1% Sweet Potato Other Crops Cassava 4% 31% 34% Maize Cassava 3% 39%
Yaqona 5% Yam 2% Dalo 20% Sweet Potato Rice 6% 8% Rice Maize Yaqona Dalo 18% 11% 3% 5% Source: 1991 Agricultural Census
Northern Province Eastern Province
Yam Other Crops Other Crops Sweet Potato 3% 5% Yam 6% 1% 1% Cassava Sweet Potato 16% 6% Yaqona 11% Dalo Yaqona Cassava 3% 21% 46%
Rice 61% Dalo 20%
Figure 11. Cropping Pattern By Province.
4.4.2.1.2.4 Long Term Impacts In Agriculture Sector
· Vegetables and Root Crops Since the breaking of the drought in October 1998 the vegetable and root crops have been replanted and production has returned to normal, the medium to long-term impact is slight.
· Tree Crops Several tree crops have suffered longer-term damage and are likely to be the most seriously impacted crop in the medium-long term. If replanted the crops will take years to return to pre- drought levels of production. Cocoa tree growth was set back by the drought and they became susceptible to fungal attack following the rains that broke the drought in late 1998. Coconut palms also suffered severely with many dropping their fronds and failing to set nuts. Again it is too early to be sure of the long-term impact but it appears that many will be forced into premature senility. Yaqona production will recover more quickly than the tree crops and should be back to pre-drought levels within three to four years.
· Beef and dairy farmers The improved pastures that commercial beef and dairy farmers rely on also suffered severely. Most of the pastures in the western areas of the main islands were killed or at best degraded
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [39]
to such an extent that they will need re-establishment.
· Logging The drought benefited the forestry sector. The dry conditions improved access to the forests thereby enabling an increased rate of logging and better plantation management. The dry conditions restricted the planting of trees but this short-term effect can easily be made up and will have little if any impact on the long term viability of the industry.
· Fisheries The El Niño event that caused the drought had a serious impact on the commercial fishing industry. The catch composition of the long line fleet changed markedly with few of the higher value yellowfin and bigeye tuna being caught in 1998, while the catch of the lower value albacore increased dramatically. Most of the established operators were able to survive the change but all suffered significant drops in profitability. By early 1999 the composition of the catch had returned to “normal” with a significant increase in the catch of yellowfin and bigeye. In the medium to long term it is likely that future events will trigger similar changes in catch composition.
4.4.2.2 Impacts on Water Supply Systems
Water supply for human health and hygiene was the key concern across all sectors. In Fiji water supply is categorised under two headings; metered and non-metered or urban and rural respectively. Metered supply is responsibility of Ministry of Works whilst the development of non- metered rural supply is the responsibility of the Ministry of Rural Development. All metered supplies are from surface sources, the largest being Vaturu Dam water storage reservoir. About 70% of Fiji’s population have clean piped water multi-sourced. In rural areas 27% of villages and 40% of non-village settlement have this amenity7.
In the Western Division, master plans are in place for the larger urban communities. These maximise usage of surface water for Sigatoka, Nadi/Lautoka, Ba, Tavua and Rakiraki. There also exists an extensive collection of hydrogeological information available in the form of reports and studies kept by the Mineral Resources Division (MRD).
In respect of the outer island groups, MRD’s own investigations are on file for more than 55 islands. In addition, MRD investigations often leave protected test boreholes in place.
Water supply shortage affected both urban and rural systems in drought-affected areas. Areas affected included nearly all of the Western Division, Northern Vanua Levu in the Northern Division and many of the islands of the Yasawa, Mamanuca, Lau, Macuata and Lomaiviti Groups.
4.4.2.2.1 Short Term Impact
Rural development policy entices communities to contribute a third of development costs. The capacity of the Public Works Department and of the beneficiary community to pay its requirement to implement water supply schemes was found clearly lagging.
· Impact on Water Quantity Roof catchment systems with a communal standpipe are very popular in rural Fiji. So high is the country’s annual rainfall that installed storage tanks are normally small without thoughts for long periods of zero rainfall. A lot more guttering exists only to channel rainwater to waste. A large number of rural people were thus affected with inadequate water-tank storage in the 18-month drought of 1997/98. Particularly schools in drought affected areas were badly impacted with shortage of essential water for health and hygiene.
7 An Atlas of Fiji, Dept. of Geography, USP (Editors: Rajesh Chandra, Keith Mason)1998
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [40]
70,000
60,000 Other River or creek Well 50,000 Roof tank Communal Standpipe 40,000 Metered
30,000
20,000
10,000
- Western Central Northern Eastern
Figure 12. Source of Water by Province.
[Source: UNDP Report: Regional El Niño Social and Economic Drought Impact Assesment and Mitigation Study (C. Lightfoot).]
Groundwater was a proven a valuable resource, especially in the Western Viti Levu and Northern Vanua Levu areas where the vast majority of all Fiji’s operational boreholes are found. Though some bores failed, a lot more bores provided adequate water resource in rural communities. These fresh water aquifers, through individual and communal pumped- systems, supplied scattered rural households, farms and communities.
With metered supply there were reports of water shortages due to maintenance and operational problems, inadequate piping and networking capacity. In its report to this study, PWD estimated that the number of people receiving continuous and adequate supplies of piped water had fallen from 60% in the first quarter to approximately 23% in the third quarter. They also reported on the impact on other sources of water.
Table 5: Effects on Other Traditional Means Of Water Sources Supply –1997.
Percentage (%) In Operation Type of Supply Jan-Mar Apr-May Jun-Aug Sept-Dec Communal 29 18 12.8 10.2 Well /Borehole 13 8 3.5 2.9 Rainwater (Roof) 4 1.5 0 1.2 Surface Water 3.5 2.2 0.5 1.3
Sourced from PWD Report to the Fiji study on “Reducing the Impacts on Environmental Vulnerabilities through Early Warning and Preparedness: the Case of the El Niño Southern Oscillation”
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [41]
· Impact on Water Quality The UNDAC report noted that in Western Division where both the drought impact and monitoring were greatest, more than a third of drinking water samples collected proved bacteriologically unsafe for consumption. Thirty percent of those were in fact from PWD treated, piped water supplies. It also noted that follow-up on unsatisfactory results were generally lacking and that there was little co-ordination among the funding and authorising agency (MRD), the supplier (PWD) and the quality monitoring agency (MOH). For example, chlorination is a key safeguard for piped water and has a special role in emergency carted water, yet chlorine monitoring is not widely practised.
· Impact on Hygiene The UNDAC report noted that use of toilets of cistern or pour-flush design decreased substantially in the Western Division while the use of pit latrines almost doubled and shared use also increased. Widespread littering of solid waste (mainly plastic and tin containers) emerged as a problem reflecting a sharp increase in supermarket shopping. These created major health hazards as breeding places for mosquitoes, especially around villages, settlements and schools.
4.4.2.2.2 National Response to Water Shortage
The Government response to water shortage was to fund delivery of water to all those in need. Countrywide more than F$1m was spent to deliver emergency supplies to rural individuals, schools and communities. Delivery started in October 1997, with hauling or ‘carting’ of water by truck and by sea at costs of more than F$188 000 per month. In some urban areas, the Nadi-Lautoka corridor in particular, water was carted due to under- development of the water supply delivery infrastructure. Rationing was practised effectively by recipients of emergency supplies. In less frequented outer islands as Viwa, Vatulele, Dravuni and the Lau Group water was rationed according to circumstances from as little as 2 buckets (16 litres) per family per week. Individual homes recycled water using poor quality water for general washing and toilet flushing. In schools, however, new pit latrines were constructed. Much of this response was initiated through the Ministry of Health with its public education and awareness programme in rural areas.
4.4.2.2.3 Needs in Water Sector 8
A countrywide, strongly supported public education and awareness program needs to be run for schools and rural dwellers to uplift roof and gutter maintenance and make other improvements to their rain water catchment systems. The groundwater aquifers fared well in the drought. The nation needs to focus on packaging proper technical and financial assistance to ensure sustainable development of groundwater aquifers in outer locations. For urban dwellers government needs to quickly implement its urban water supply master plans.
Guidelines for water quality monitoring, rectification and chlorination are needed for respective sectors to follow. Particularly, improvement is needed in health authority procedures for bacteriological monitoring and alleviating the source of the contamination.
Trials and research are needed on solar distillation plants (evaporation and condensation of seawater) as an option to desalination plants. The latter require a high level of technical expertise to operate and maintain. Trials should be considered on remote islands where minimal quantities of drinking water (e.g. 150 litres per day for a community) could save costly fresh water deliveries.
8 UNDAC Report on 1997/98 El Niño Fiji Drought
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [42]
4.4.2.2.4 Long Term Impacts
All the studies concurred that there were no significant long term impacts of the drought on water sources themselves. Fiji’s problems are two-fold. Firstly the general indifference of the public to take proper care and maintenance on water supply systems.9 An underlying reason perhaps is that Fiji has rainfall distributed throughout the year. The second problem arises from the consistent readiness of government to supply water in just about any emergency. This creates dependency and may have actually deterred the public in investing into their water supply systems. It has become increasingly common for individuals and communities to rely on water deliveries rather than improve maintenance and conservation of their own water supplies.
4.4.2.3 Impacts on Health and Nutrition
The Ministry of Health10 in analysing the drought impacts summarised that when the drought broke, a potentially dangerous situation was emerging, indicated by the increasing but sporadic instances of a wide variety of health and social problems. Fortunately from a health perspective, the drought broke early and situation did not worsen. The disruptions to community food and income sources mostly affected the poorer rural communities and their daily living standards. As a result there was a high rate of sporadic cases of dysentery, diarrhoea and skin infection recorded in remote areas.
Owing to the decrease in domestic farm production, an increase was observed in malnutrition particularly amongst the poorer sections of the community (cane cutters, the unemployed and small subsistence farmers). In addition a high incidence of anaemia was observed in pregnant mothers. Although food rations reached drought victims, it was nutritionally unbalanced.
Health and sanitary standards were affected also due to poor water supply or the unavailability of water for basic sanitary and night soil disposals. The rural communities were particularly affected. In worse scenarios, a few households were relocated as sources of water dried up. This adverse environment was an unfamiliar experience to those affected. It was the catalyst to greater human misery and frustration that manifested into increased, but sporadic, social and domestic problems and violence.
There were no lives lost directly due to the effects of drought, although several people have lost their lives in indirectly related events (carbon monoxide poisoning while digging wells). However generally speaking, the drought seemed to have exacerbated the effects of previously existing malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies.
The drought reduced available household food supply, manifesting itself with adverse health impacts. These were analysed against known differences in culture and dietary habits of the two predominant races Fijians and Indians.
· Areas Affected The impact on health was spread sporadically throughout drought affected areas. However more severe impacts were more prominent within the sugarcane growing areas, involving the community most vulnerable to drought. In all areas, babies, lactating mothers and elderly citizens were worst affected from dietary deficiencies.
9 The UNDAC report noted many instances of damaged and neglected water supply systems. 10 The section has combined both the health report to the Study Team and the findings of the UNDAC study.
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [43]
4.4.2.3.1 Short Term Impacts
In its report to this study, the Ministry of Health concurred with the UNDAC Report and stated an observed increase in infantile diarrohoea, malnutrition (especially in children) and nutritional deficiencies in pregnant and lactating mothers. Major contributing factors were the poor quality of delivered water, the loss of up to 90% of home gardens and the poverty level restricting low income households from buying correct food which was widely available in municipal supermarkets 11.
4.4.2.3.2 National Response
The Fiji Government assisted the worst affected families by providing emergency water and food rations. These were supplemented with donations supplied through NGOs, donors and international agencies in the form of cash, food, planting materials and other essentials.
For the impacts on health there were no strategies on a national scale. However health intervention to correct iron deficiencies and anaemia is prescribed individually after examination by doctors. It is certain that the medical authority is unaware of many more victims. The findings of the drought impact have supported the call from nutritional agencies to provide iron-fortified food (as flour) to foster preventive health practices.
A total of around 250 000 people were given various rations from sources detailed in Table 6.
Table 6: Main types of rations distributed. Ration type Target group Distribution Distributor/ Donor Quantity/VALUE Mechanism Rice, Flour, Sugar and 1.cane farmers Affected Government of Fiji 1. Round Total: Canned Fish 2. non-cane farmers Households 18 912 bags of rice in cane belt identified in 17 020 bags flour (monthly adult 3.subsistence farmers government of 17 730 cartons tin fish supplementary ration = in non cane belt, Fiji (GoF) 8510 bags of sugar 4 kg rice, 4 kg flour, including islands surveys 2 kg sugar, 4 tin fish) Areas: Western Division, Northern Division Humanitarian Daily School children in Schools in need Red Cross / USA 200 000 Units, (0.5 Mio. Ration (HDR) Packs * Western Division of assistance US$) Rice, flour, dhal, oil, Most affected Households Red Cross / F$ 124 000 milk and where Households in identified in GoF Government of feasible fresh fruit and Western Division surveys Japan vegetables Breakfast crackers, School children Schools Save the Children F$ 180 000 coconut biscuits, whole Western Division responding to Fund/ Navtarang / milk powder Northern Division appeal Donations
Source: UNDAC Fiji Drought Report
4.4.2.3.3 Short Term Needs On Health And Nutrition Due to ignorance of the causes and effects of micro-nutritional deficiencies, greater effort is needed to run a national awareness program targeted at women of child-bearing age. The two leading agencies, the National Food and Nutrition Committee (NFNC) and the National
11 The UNDAC report described medical data from surveys of a total of 1800 children under 5 years of age (U5) that showed a shift towards the lower limits of the recommended weights for age. This meant children, especially those under 18
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Centre for Health Promotion, require financial support from central government to run this program.
The Fiji Plan of Action for Nutrition, which was endorsed by cabinet in early 1998, provides a multi-sectoral instrument to promote food security in Fiji. Given the extent of nutritional problems in Fiji, it is recommended that its implementation under the guidance of the NFNC be given high priority by all ministries concerned in 1999.
It was also noted a need to strengthen the concept of household food security within the overall framework of the ministry of agriculture. Moreover, the integration of nutritional aspects, in particular educational feeding practices, needed strengthening within the policy of the ministry of education.
There should be special nutritional considerations in issue of drought rations for consumption by children and young mothers. Items to include dhal, milk-biscuits or milk powder. Should it be deemed necessary by regional health officials, feeding centres could be set up to target malnourished children.
4.4.2.3.4 Long Term Impacts The UNDP study12 examined long-term trends in hospital data which did not suggest abnormal increases in infectious diseases and low birth weights due to the drought. Data from the Ba, Lautoka and Nadi hospitals show no significant difference between the frequency of low birth weight of infants during 1998 and the incidence in previous years. The trend for Ba Hospital on low birth weights is shown on Figure 13 and the trend for anaemia in pregnant women is presented in Figure 14. It is likely that the relief interventions in supply of good drinking water arrested the problems of infectious diseases observed in the beginning of the drought.
100.0%
90.0%
80.0%
70.0%
60.0%
50.0% Drought Impact Period (=> 2.5 kgs) 40.0% Unexplained anomaly 30.0%
20.0%
10.0% Proportion of Infants Born with Normal Birth Weight Source: Statistics Office, Ministry of Health 0.0% Jan-96 Mar-96 May-96 Jul-96 Sep-96 Nov-96 Jan-97 Mar-97 May-97 Jul-97 Sep-97 Nov-97 Jan-98 Mar-98 May-98 Jul-98 Sep-98 Nov-98 Jan-99
Figure 13: Birth Weights at Ba Hospital. [Source: UNDP Report: Regional El Niño Social and Economic Drought Impact Assesment and Mitigation Study (C. Lightfoot)]
12 The UNDP report by Chris Lightfoot, citing that anaemia is a chronic problem in Fiji, is supported by reports of the study team.
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45.0%
40.0%
35.0%
30.0% Drought Impact Period 25.0%
20.0%
15.0%
10.0%
Proportion of Pregnant Women with Aneamia 5.0%
Source: Statistics Office, Ministry of Health 0.0% Jan-95 Mar-95 May-95 Jul-95 Sep-95 Nov-95 Jan-96 Mar-96 May-96 Jul-96 Sep-96 Nov-96 Jan-97 Mar-97 May-97 Jul-97 Sep-97 Nov-97 Jan-98 Mar-98 May-98 Jul-98 Sep-98 Nov-98
Figure 14: Pregnant Women with Anaemia at Ba Hospital.
[Source: UNDP Report: Regional El Niño Social and Economic Drought Impact Assesment and Mitigation Study (C. Lightfoot)]
Fiji was very fortunate that the drought did not continue and that government and non- government organisations responded effectively.
4.4.2.4 Impacts in the Education Sector
Most schools had interruptions in their water supplies during the drought. This applied to both metered and non-metered sources, and were supplied through water delivery trucks.
4.4.2.4.1 Short Term Impacts At times schools were closed through concerns about the health risks children faced due to the unsanitary conditions. Other schools were closed because they were poorly prepared for the drought. Not only did they run out of potable water, but those that had installed flush toilets and water closets found it difficult to maintain basic sanitary arrangements. Some schools reverted to using pit latrines.
School absenteeism increased as parents either did not have cash for bus fare, nor food for school lunches so they kept their children at home. However most children continued to attend school throughout the drought period and, at worst, those that missed some school may have their schooling set back by a year.
4.4.2.4.2 National Response The non-government organisations were much more responsive to addressing the financial difficulties of school children. Notably the Fiji Red Cross Society, the Foundation for the Peoples of the South Pacific and the Save the Children put in considerable efforts to ease
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the range of difficulties children had in making it to school.
4.4.2.4.3 Needs in Education Sector The main need was to have adequate water and school gardens. All short term needs have been addresses by other intervening measures.
4.4.2.4.4 Long Term Impacts It is very difficult to draw conclusions and find links between short absenteeism and children’s subsequent academic/employment performance. Also whether social non- curriculum habits developed during these periods of absenteeism have long-term impacts. But it is clear that lower levels of education or delayed completion of schooling will ultimately retard the development of a country.
4.4.2.5 Impacts on National Economy
4.4.2.5.1 Macroeconomic Impacts
The 1997/98 drought was classed as the most catastrophic natural disaster to hit Fiji this century. Fiji has a narrow economic base that is driven primarily by the sugar industry with contribution from tourism. The 1997/98 growth in other sectors was not strong enough to offset the retarded growth due to the drought in the sugar industry and in the export crops dalo and kava. The drought drove the economy into recession, reducing 1997 GDP by three percent 13 and 1998 GDP by a further five per cent. In comparison, Fiji had achieved an average growth of 3.0 percent per annum over the last five years. The effect on national GDP reflects the aggregate impacts on domestic production, employment and prices.
The rapid recovery of the agricultural sector from late November 1998 has helped minimise the long-term impact of the drought and is likely to be insignificant within 3 to 4 years. However the compounding affects of all droughts and other natural disasters on the economic growth of Fiji are significant. It has been estimated that natural disasters have cut up to 50 percent from the economic growth rate of Fiji (Benson, 1996).
The UNDP Report did not find any lasting impact of the drought on prices. Non-affected areas from Central Division were able to replenish Western Division markets but the reduction of the disposable income of drought victims and the provision of rations kept buying demands low and prices stable.
The UNDP study stated also that the drought did not have any impact on the interest rate. It believed that the January 1998 Fiji currency devaluation of 20 % might have masked any deflationary effects of a general reduction in demand. As for wages and employment, the short-term impact was severe mos tly because of the damage in the sugar sector but this quickly returned to normal with the bumper crop of 1999 forestalling any long-term impacts on wages and employment.
4.4.2.5.2 Household Income
Impact on household income was felt mostly within the drought-affected sugar producing districts with hardly any felt impact external to these areas. Within these areas the worst affected totaled about 17 000 households who had no other alternative to sugar production and 93 000 households less affected as they were normally supplementing income from other sources. In addition, there are many landless labourers who rely on casual work to support their families.
13 UNDP Report Chris Lightfoot
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Subsistence agriculture, which accounts for 3 % of GDP and supports 85 % of the population, was also adversely impacted. As the figures suggest, most of this group are amongst the poorest in the country with very little savings. The loss of their household gardens and cash crops in the drought, their primary source of food and income, were life- threatening if not for the food ration distribution which addressed the immediate problem of food. At the best of times the bulk of those reliant on subsistence agriculture struggle to maintain a decent standard of living. As the UNDP report noted the loss of a year’s income is major setback for these families; a setback some can never recover from, particularly those with few reserves.
4.5 RELIABILITY OF ATTRIBUTIONS
The Fiji Meteorological Service has a very close professional relationship with equivalent bodies in Australia and New Zealand. For 1997/98 the ENSO warning was initially sent from the Darwin Territory Regional Office, Bureau of Meteorology in Australia. These Weekly Tropical Climate Notes are sent to FMS via email. Relevant web sites such NOAA, UKMO, IRI, ECMWF and WMO were accessed for the updates.
The Fiji Meteorological Service since 1991 continually studies the relationships between ENSO and Fiji’s climate, particularly on rainfall and tropical cyclones (running statistical analysis of the frequency and severity of tropical cyclones during past ENSO and normal years, since 1840).
The more sophisticated studies such as interaction of SST and Fiji’s climate and the behaviour of SPCZ are left with foreign scientific organisations, who share their findings with Fiji. Foremost amongst these is NIWA, which has carried out studies on ENSO and climate-related hazards as tropical cyclones. One of its publications is currently a very valuable reference text in the region "El-Niño – likely Impacts on the South Pacific Island Countries” (Dr Reid Basher, New Zealand National Institute of Water and National And Atmospheric Research Limited – NIWA ).
The 1997/98 ENSO impacts have been well documented because of the scale of disaster that arose and government interest to address the problem. However the socio-economic impacts of the earlier ENSO droughts of 1982-83 and 1987 were not as well recorded. The 1982/83 event was not as severe in Fiji as that in 1987. However, the fact that Fiji went through two military coups in 1987 restricted normal functions and recording of drought impacts.
5. RESPONSES
5.1 GOVERNMENT RESPONSE OR STATEMENT ISSUED BEFORE THE IMPACT OF THE 1997-98 EL NIÑO APPEARED
The Fiji Meteorological Service routinely issues Monthly Weather Summary. Acting on the early warning sent from the Bureau of Meteorology Australia (Darwin Territory Regional Office) and checking with its own models, the FMS stated in its April (1997) Monthly Weather Summary the possibility of the return of an El Niño condition later in the year. It confirmed this in its May issue and in June indicated the possibility of a significant drought.
Even though the circulation reached all key agencies, for some reason there was no response generated. This was possibly due both to a general state of unpreparedness and to a lesser extent the difficulty with identifying with meteorological terminology. The country was hit hard as it was not prepared for the disastrous event.
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5.2 STATEMENT ISSUED AFTER THE IMPACT
FMS released several reports on the drought including the forecast of the subsequent season: May 98, August 98, October 98. These reports were distributed to the NDMO and relevant Government Departments and Ministries.
The Fiji Meteorological Services was approached to advise on the severity of the drought and its duration during the event by the Government and the Sugar Cane Industry.
The impacts eventually proved so devastating that government declared a state of emergency. Senior administrators from affected areas monitored the situation and regularly compiled progressive damage reports, which were submitted to the National Disaster Management Office. This formed the basis for the response decisions from government. The damage soon reached a scale beyond Fiji’s capacity to cope, such that it sought UNDP assistance (UNDAC Report) to help assess damage, relief and response requirements. Fiji also requested UNDP to assess and report on the medium to long-term impacts.
In addition, national workshops were convened by the Sugar Cane Growers Council as well as by UNDP that addressed the drought, its impacts and possible mitigation measures. Additionally SOPAC conducted a regional workshop in October 98 that brought together water managers, weather scientists and disaster managers from PICs that have all been affected by the drought. Foreign scientific organisations, particularly the Pacific ENSO Application Center continued to monitor the event and regularly published a newsletter on physical impacts around the Pacific.
5.3 MAJOR RESPONSES TO THE EVENT
More information on the response on worst hit sectors is provided in Section 4.4.2. (The Socio- Economic Impacts). An overview of the major responses is as follows.
The magnitude of the drought generated consultations between relevant scientific organisations based in Fiji and these turned over more ENSO-drought information to the public. The government declared a national disaster and was justified eventually, as the drought was the worst of all natural disasters that impacted Fiji this century.
The Fiji Government assisted the worst affected families by providing emergency water and food rations. While essential, this relief went only part way towards addressing the immediate needs of those most severely affected. NGOs, donors and international agencies provided further assistance in the form of cash, food, planting materials and other essentials. The Fiji government provided food rations to about 250 000 people (33% population) at a monthly cost of $3.3 million. Over half the population was supplied limited water, which cost government $0.5 million. This ration though is insufficient to address the requirements of special attention group as babies and elderly people.
NGOs as Red Cross, Save the Children Fund, Church groups and social/charitable organisations were very active assisting with food and cash to school children and organising public appeal. Another NGO, FSP (Foundation for the People of the South Pacific) worked with schools on upgrading water systems and establishing food gardens.
The Fiji Meteorological Service, as earlier mentioned, had issued Drought warnings in its Monthly Weather Summaries to the news media and its other recipients.
Emergency water supplies were provided to the rural areas and outer islands badly affected by the drought. Additionally more bore holes were quickly established at designated areas. Due to the prolonged nature of the drought, the Public Works Department took precautionary measures enforcing temporary water cuts and activating legal water restrictions.
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5.4 LEVEL OF NATIONAL RESEARCH IN THE LAST 20 YEARS
Fiji does not have specific meteorological research institutions. The Department of Meteorology does limited studies on historical and statistical relationship between ENSO and Fiji’s climate. It looks particularly at the interrelationship between rainfall, tropical cyclones, Southern Oscillation Index and seasonal variation. This is strengthened with research results availed from more sophisticated research run by foreign scientific organisations. Recently the WMO has upgraded the Department facilities and status as a South Pacific regional meteorological office. Coincident with this is a raised level in rainfall-drought prediction skills. However for pure scientific research, island countries rely on initiatives of their richer and more resourced development partners.
Small island countries have limited water resources, particularly surface water, which is in great user demand. The regional scientific organisations of SPREP and SOPAC also have applied researches on the relationship between climate and ocean impacts with development planning.
In Fiji there are currently some studies to determine relationship between catchment conditions, stream flows and ENSO following similar studies that had been done in New Zealand and Australia. It is being run jointly by the University of the South Pacific and the Hydrology Unit housed within the Public Works Department. In reporting on this work, PWD states14 “analysis of hydrometeorological data for two stream catchments on Viti Levu island shows how persistent negative ENSO conditions caused failure of two successive dry season rainfalls and more significantly, failure of the normally reliable wet season rainfall in-between. This produced the lowest stream baseflows on record and led to serious water shortages for rural areas. Surplus rainfall brought by tropical cyclones in early 1997 did little to offset the drought, because this moisture was lost from the hydrological system as rapid runoff and failed to sustain streamflows later on. Overall, the evidence suggested that water resources on high islands in the humid tropics are influenced both by climatic parameters and stream hydrological responses to the pattern of rainfall through the year.”
5.5 NATIONAL PLAN TO RESPOND TO A DISASTER
The decade 1991-1999 was declared International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction. In response to this the regional island leaders under the guidance and sponsorship of UNDP designed and implemented the quite successful South Pacific Disaster Reduction Programme (SPDRP). As a region beset with many disasters, the focus of SPDRP was on risk reduction, preparedness and mitigation measures. It has promoted the establishment in Fiji of a national infrastructure for the management of natural hazards supported by a National Disaster Management Plan with relevant legislation (see Section 2.1).
5.6 THE LEVEL OF INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH ABOUT THE IMPACTS OF EL NIÑO IN FIJI
Many studies are done by foreign scientific organisations on ENSO impacts in the Pacific which implicate Fiji directly. Notable amongst this is the work by the Honolulu-based Pacific ENSO Application Center, which regularly updates the Pacific Island Countries through newsletters. Similarly, the New Zealand National Institute of Water and National and Atmospheric Research Limited (NIWA) is one of several foreign scientific organisations carrying out studies on ENSO and climate-related hazards such as tropical cyclones and SPCZ displacement in Fiji. The Bureau of Meteorology, Australia and the Natural Hazards Research Centre, Macquarie University in Sydney are other institutions well known in the region for scientific research works on El Niño as well as other climatic disasters.
14 Sourced from PWD Report to the study
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6. FORECASTING BY ANALOGY
In its report to the Fiji Workshops the FMS stated it now has modern sophisticated weather forecasting equipment, which is highly responsive to sudden weather changes. Together with its in-house skills, the Fiji Meteorology Services can now with some authority forecast the development of an El Niño condition as early as 12 months before its onset.
6.1 FMS FORECASTING SYSTEMS15
The FMS combines four ways to forecast rainfall in Fiji.
(a) General Monthly Rainfall Pattern
Based on the analysis of historical records, this has defined Fiji’s wet season (Nov-Mar), dry season (May-Sept) and transition months (April and October). It provides also the base rainfall figures for analysing probabilities.
(b) Analysis of Past ENSO Events
Studies on the characteristics of past ENSO events has given guidance for forecasting of up- coming events. A significant proportion of rainfall variability is associated with strong ENSO events where drier and hotter than normal conditions can be expected from December to February, and drier and cooler conditions can be expected from June to August. These studies have also indicated the presence of the lag phase, which is put to good use in forecasting rainfall for upcoming months. The good correlation seen between SOI and strong ENSO event allowed FMS to successfully forecast in May 1998 the end of the 97/98 drought in November 1998.
(c) Rain Forecast Models
The FMS has since 1991 routinely published rainfall forecast advice “Outlook For The Following Two Months” using 30 year normals as reference point with three classes of advice – below normal, normal and above normal. This system was strengthened with implementation in 1999 of both a Fiji Rainfall Prediction Model and the Australian Rainman. The two models are so far in consensus and are being used together with the Regional Climate Model that provides the larger scale picture.
(d) Regional Prediction Model
The FMS receives SOI values from Darwin. In addition it has other models and web sites to assist it put together a regional forecast. The eight main models FMS uses are:
BMRC – Intermediate Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model CCA – Statistical Model COLA – Coupled General Circulation Model ECMWF – Coupled General Circulation Model LDEO (3) – Intermediate Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Model NCEP – Coupled General Circulation Model NOAA (LINEAR INVERSE) – Statistical Model SCRIPPS/MPI – Hybrid Coupled Ocean Atmospheric Model (Statistical Atmosphere; Ocean General Circulation)
15 Sourced from FMS report 97/98 Drought Assessment and Forecasting Systems Used by Fiji Meteorological Services, Ms Nazim Bi, Fiji Meteorological Services
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6.2 RESPONSES TO 1997/98 FORECASTS
In 1997 FMS had forecasted in April the development of an El Niño condition but the response capacity and support mechanisms from within the country had not yet been developed to utilise drought forecast skills.
To strengthen response capacity, the two workshops conducted in Fiji included sessions and exercises on drought forecasting. The finding was interesting in that relief actions taken during the drought were the correct relief actions but were very costly to Fiji as they were taken too late. Forecast information will definitely allow better preparedness by disaster managers as well as drought victims. The Workshop also noted that no new technology is warranted to support preparedness but that a lot more effort is needed for public education and awareness programs. People would then be more responsive.
A telling case study was given of the country of the Federated States of Micronesia where a concerted public education awareness program was driven with new drought forecast information given for 1997/98 by the Pacific ENSO Application Center. Conservative usage and repair of line losses reduced drought water consumption up to 90% without any adverse impacts on the population.
7. POLICY IMPLICATIONS, RECOMMENDATIONS AND CONCLUSION
The 1997/98 El Niño drought has great significance to disaster management in Fiji. There was a determination by the government to understand and assess the full socio-economic impacts. There were two studies initiated by government with one focussing at assessing drought relief needs and the other specifically to identify long-term impacts and mitigation measures. The UNEP project supplements these other studies in merging the local study with its own and onto the global level. As a component of these studies, two national workshops and a regional workshop were run in Fiji focussing on greater understanding of El Niño and its impacts and to derive recommendations for government and all other affected agencies on measures to mitigate against such future events.
7.1 UNDERSTANDING EL NIÑO, DEFINITIONS, INDICATORS AND IMPACTS OF PAST ENSO EVENTS
There is a great need to educate the public on ENSO (and climate affairs) and their impacts on society to reduce community vulnerability through better understanding of this phenomenon. As well as through national institutions, some proactive role for the media to do this consciously and constantly has to be generated, since it has the widest reach into the community. The study in Fiji questioned a lot the appropriateness of using rainfall to indicate “drought”. It embraced the growing desires to better define drought through drought classes according to meteorological drought, hydrological drought, agricultural drought and environmental drought. Within each class there is a need to define an appropriate drought indicator. For example:
For meteorological drought a lot of users could not translate directly the rainfall parameters to their different needs. A second transformation process is needed to convert rainfall to water depth in rivers, or volume in storage tanks, or depth of ground infiltration, or intrusion of salt water into groundwater aquifer. Some more work is needed in uses of appropriate terminology to meet users needs.
For water resources in drought times, the Fiji El Niño-hydrology study finds that stream flow is a better indicator than rainfall amount on the availability of water resources.
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For agricultural drought, crop yield and production are logical parameters or indicators. In socio-environmental drought, parameters could be defined from increase of social crimes or deterioration in health and living standards.
These are good parameters to use in future impact forecast. However to realise this, much more analysis on impacts of the past ENSO events needs to be made. The Fiji study also indicated the complicity in assessment due to compounding effect of other recent natural disasters. Even the 1992 drought was a small ENSO event but had telling impacts. So for water practitioners and drought victims, the impacts of small ENSO events need also to be included in the equation for consideration of long-term mitigation plans. The support of bilateral donors, international and regional funding organisations are needed to see such a programme materialise.
7.1.2 Policy Considerations at Sectoral Levels
Water is a basic commodity essential and fundamental to all things natural and in the creation of things on earth. Its shortage will impact all sectors. There are a number of grounds common and equally important to all sectors to enable them prepare better against hardship accruing from future El Niño drought:
Public Education and Awareness Programs – national policies need to be established to support and pro-actively promote public education awareness programs in health care and sanitary issues; community and household water management and food and nutrition.
Organisational Drought Plans – now that forecasting skills are quite advanced, each agency needs to develop drought plans that are guided from a national drought plan. Such a plan will alleviate most relief needs, which have always put a major demand on national resources.
Legislative review – of regulations to cater for needs and control during droughts.
Strengthening Information Management Systems – the studies reveal the difficulty to obtain data, since there is no recognised information infrastructure within ministries. A key requirement in all planning is a well-managed information system. This needs to be driven in all sectors and from a national level.
The pertinent policy implications specific to each sector, obtained as lessons learnt, are listed as follows.
7.1.2.1 Water Resources and the Environment
A concerted effort has to be put in place by government to establish a national water resources plan that maps the major sources as well as the major consumptive users including commercial forestry plantations. The plan needs to link with drought management planning and include appropriate structural and non-structural mitigation measures to ensure efficient usage of water to minimise losses at all times as pertaining to each different system of water supply. There need to be provisions to promote small-scale irrigation schemes of low-capital investment.
Due to the extensive areas affected by drought and that it extended into land with little infrastructure, the use of information technology, such as remote sensing needs to be encouraged to produced broad based vulnerability maps for water use and conservation purposes. Much assistance and input needs to be sourced from donors and developed countries as this technological tool, though known and appreciated, is currently beyond fiscal capacity of developing PICs to own and use. For the Pacific, support can be very effective when directed through the regional organisations, who will build capacity in individual countries as is appropriate. SOAPC is the secretariat of the regional organisations responsible for co-ordinating remote sensing development programmes in the region.
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The lack of user response to drought forecast in Fiji reflects that the message is not directly meaningful and that users do not have the ready knowledge to convert rainfall figures to other useful parameters. Particularly with forecasting water availability, more research support is needed to study the relationship between water catchment, streamflow, roof catchment and ENSO events.
Some concerns have been raised in Fiji questioning the current expensive policy to supply water on demand. The concern is that this practice is counter-productive to promoting people to be more self-reliant. Particularly when all drought impact studies have pointed to human negligence, lack of foresight, failure of institutional planning and general public indifference as the real causes for bulk of Fiji’s water problem, and not water source shortage. A strong stand is advocated to develop the people to fend more for themselves.
7.1.2.2 Food and Nutrition
It is recognised that problems of food and nutrition are chronic issues. The 1997/98 drought revealed around 30% of the population was on the threshold of dietary deficiency and malnutrition. The fear is now there exists a potential for accelerated national disaster, given Fiji’s vulnerability to natural disasters, especially if government does not formulate ground actions now to improve food sufficiency and food security. These issues must be addressed at the grassroots or community level. Ground-level development agencies must recognise nutrition and malnutrition problems exist. They need to take a co-ordinated and integrated community development approach, changing current individual development approaches, to co-ordinate in partnership uses of their resources in agreed field programs. The main community agencies are agriculture, community health and nutrition, district developments, community organisations and church groups.
During the drought, although government supplied food rations, these were not meeting the nutritional needs of drought victims. The rations were based on food supplied during cyclone disasters when people could still supplement their food from foraging partly damaged garden crops and that the disaster phase is normally a week or two in duration. In the drought, home gardens were destroyed completely and the impacts lasted up to 18 months in worst affected areas. The government needs to examine closely the cost implications of supplying nutritionally balanced food rations.
Given that up to 12-month forecasts are now available, the nation needs to promote food preservation, particularly traditional methods in the less accessible rural areas and outer islands. This will have many beneficial spin-offs through monetary savings to government and ready availability of nutritious food for disaster victims. The inventory of traditional technologies needs to be accompanied with an objective to attain a commercial final product in the preserved food, to offer villagers an alternative for income as a means of sustaining the knowledge.
A long-term measure, which government has approved after the drought, is flour fortification with iron to combat iron deficiency in the general population. However a lot more food vehicles can be used to make other needed micronutrients widely available to the public. This issue of food fortification needs more public discussions and public support for government to make appropriate regulations.
7.1.2.3 Agriculture
Existing policies are adequate to fortify the agricultural sector against future drought, but the risk has not been considered great enough. The 1997/98 drought has quantified the cost and studies revealed that mitigation measures need not be expensive nor require bringing in high level technology. The practical approach formulated from the national workshop is to adopt a more
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [54] strategic planning mode of preparing ahead of the drought, given that FMS can provide good forecasts.
The drought impact on the sugar sector involved the greatest human misery (17,000 families) and the crop failure placed the biggest burden on the nation (– 5% GDP). Fiji needs to seriously accelerate and intensify its crop diversification programme in the sugar sector. Proper criteria need to be established in the selection of commercial crops and where to grow them. Land zoning falls in place logically and easily if government is strong-willed enough to enforce provisions in the land conservation laws pertaining to proper land use.
The loss of farm animals illustrated the important contribution these small stockholders provide to national-level food supply (milk and protein). The Agriculture Department has proposed a formula for supplementary food using molasses from the sugar mills. Government needs to establish a mechanism to involve farmers and the sugar industry with the objective of developing this venture into a commercial entity for the farmers.
7.1.2.4 Meteorology, Planning and Other Services
For forecasting to be really an effective and useful disaster mitigation tool, more dialogue and exchange needs to be arranged between the meteorological services and end users to review the terminology in use. The government must take the lead role in allocating the required resources to determine this critical issue in collaboration with the non-government sector.
Now that Fiji has recognised the high cost when ill prepared for a less-frequent hazard, such as drought, developing drought vulnerability and risk maps will assist everyone plan better for future events. The drought vulnerability and risk maps are the lead tools to review zoning and planning policies.
More than anything the drought demonstrated general lack of knowledge of El Niño and its impact. WMO and other international research organisations need to promote strategies and materials to meet needs of educational institutions, operational agencies, community trainers, national scientists and researchers.
For Fiji schools, hardships faced by school children have highlighted many issues and contributing factors. Currently there are no controls on school choices. Perhaps a measure to reduce financial burden on parents is to introduce residentially based control on school placement. This may reduce burden of long-distance bus fares faced by many students today. It will also encourage greater local community attention to improving school water and sanitation facilities and participation in drought response plans.
To complement the drives for water resource planning, the conservative use of water and self- sufficiency in water supply, government needs to review minimum housing standards to include adequate conduit and storage structures. This is a critical requirement in ensuring essential water is harvested and is a move to reduce uncontrolled water losses and wastage from individual households, community buildings, schools and rural institutions.
Some of the problem at rural level is driven by their difficulty to access finance, as requirements of commercial banks are too stringent on security demands. The studies have pointed to government the need to develop and support micro-financing.
7.1.3 Policy Considerations – National Activities
The national workshops in Fiji desegregated the drought impacts and came to the following conclusion.
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Social and Health Impacts – The studies into drought impacts in Fiji were unable to conclusively determine precisely the medium to long term social and health impacts of the drought. This was due to paucity of data, although observations during the drought tended to indicate increases in key health and social indicator ailments. This shows the need for better record keeping and analysis. Additionally questions were asked of the long lasting impacts on drought-induced absenteeism from schools and the various family distresses as well as short-term health intervention strategies. More research is needed on the social and health aspects of the drought.
Economic Impact – the economic impacts were the most pronounced including: greater environmental and soil erosion losses from rains after the drought (which subsequently caused flooding from silted waterways); loss of income to many farmers; and the adverse national impact in reduced growth rate of about 5%. This indicates that the nation needs to put in place both mitigation and alleviation measures.
Generalised Approach to Assessing Medium to Long Term Social and Economic Impacts – the study in Fiji perhaps was the first in the region to try and separate the relief needs from longer term needs by clearly determining the medium to long-term impacts. An approach was conceptualised using sugar cane as an indicator crop to establish a realistic drought intensity index derived from correlation analysis of long term records between production and rainfall. This was not realised because of the restricted accessibility of long-term data. The industry destroys data over year old. Every attempt should be given to securing a working definition of drought; one that can be usefully applied in domestic situations. The refining of methods for estimating the impact of drought should lead to estimating costs of drought, costs of mitigating the impact of drought, cost benefit analysis of mitigation, and costs of mitigation as against alleviation. Such methods to incorporate remote sensing into estimation of drought impact studies.
Forecasting – FMS should be proactively supported towards refining the science of the ENSO and climate system in order to improve its degree of predicability. Every attempt should be given to securing a working definition of drought; one that can be usefully applied in domestic situations.
7.2 RECOMMENDATIONS
The impact of the three studies in Fiji were timely as the nation grappled to understand El Niño drought and to define measures to reduce personal and national damages. Involving very senior operational people, the studies had generated very practical recommendations. A good number of these have threading through them common needs for good public education and awareness programs, upgrading data collection and analysis, improving information management systems and finally developing organisational drought preparedness plans to fit in with an overarching national drought support plans.
The specific areas of need are further detailed in Section 4.4.2 Socio-Economic Impacts and Needs.
7.2.1 General Statements on Applied Research Needs
The study has identified a need for more applied El Niño impact research particularly on relations between rainfall-roof catchment-storage; El Niño-stream flows-catchment conditions; and water planning based on total catchment consumptive uses. In dissemination of scientific results, user- friendlier format is needed. Pacific countries currently not provided with El Niño forecasting urge the establishment of network services such as provided by the Pacific ENSO Application Centre (PEAC) to USA-affiliated countries. The suggestion is even raised with PEAC if it could explore with the USA government an extension of the Centre’s services to provide country-specific information to other Pacific island independent states.
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Any strategies for mitigating the medium to long term social and economic impact of the drought is to be composed within a National Drought Support Plan. Organisational drought contingency plans are to be generated in conformity with this national drought plan. The plans will need to clearly define extension of disaster management organisational structures down to village levels. The Plan itself needs to in-build an early warning system that spells out clearly the required response, preparedness and/or preventive actions.
The Fiji study has suggested a five-stage drought-alerting sequence similar to the cyclone warning procedure: a) general preparedness, involves planning and public education. b) Nine-month indicative warning, an early warning and advice to households and farmers on how to start preparing for a possible drought. c) Six-month firm warning, confirmed that drought is imminent d) Three-month severity warning, advise the severity and provide specific warning to districts likely to be worst affected e) alleviation, initiate alleviation measures f) breaking of the drought: declare the drought over
For household water supplies, a concerted effort is required to promote plain “house keeping” matters and have these placed within a development framework.
The extent of damages in the agriculture and environment has given rise to recommendations that drought risk mapping is required to assist better national planning. The use of remote sensing images has been highly recommended to government. However due to the lack of the right technical resources in individual countries, promotion in the application of remote sensing images need to be coordinated through SOPAC which has the mandate.
Livestock holdings within potentially drought-affected areas contain a high proportion of Fiji’s total ruminant and small animal population. Much of the land was rendered devoid of pastures for grazing and this was recognised as a continuing problem requiring supplementary feeding to alleviate hardships. Supplementary feeding is in its early stages in Fiji and will require management support to make this commercially viable for farmers.
7.2.2 Forecasting Needs Identified from the Regional Workshop
The Regional Workshop noted that effective planning requires accurate, relevant and reliable forecast and proper recording and documentation of impacts. In recognising that forecasting will allow timely application of response measures, the workshop noted that response plans need to re-visit past events and impacts to further improve effective planning. It also concluded that from the onset and into early El Niño phases there is a need to target specific vulnerable groups and boost public education and awareness programmes since some difficulties were experienced with interpreting available forecast information.
7.3 CONCLUSION
The study was timely since it enabled the compilation, analysis and dissemination of many lessons learnt (in many different sectors) on how Fiji responded to the drought. The disaster impacts in the socio-economic, agriculture and health sectors were on the verge of snowballing before its end. Government and NGO agencies responded to the drought impacts across many sectors, but most of these responses were late, or sometimes unsuitable (eg. nutritional balance of emergency rations) and all were reaction-oriented. As it was, the measures taken by the whole nation were sufficient to moderate the economic and social distress caused by the drought. In particular, the Sugarcane Crop Rehabilitation Programme was most effective in aiding economic
[SOPAC Technical Report 344 – SPDRP] [57] recovery of the nation. However, the need is clear that more timely and better-planned drought responses are required, starting from monitoring and research, through to warnings, operation plans, and community self reliance.
Applied Research
The 1997/98 drought was an important wake-up call to disaster managers and water users in the country to work together with meteorologists and develop drought forecasting, such as it is done for cyclones. Better warnings including developing appropriate drought terminology and indicators are required. Damage could be minimised if drought victims and disaster managers had timely and accurate drought forecast information to guide preparedness and relief response. Despite the fact that Fiji Meteorological services provided a drought forecast in May 1997, the information users hardly responded, most probably because of the difficulties to utilise the information provided in meteorological terms. The present level of forecasting skill is quite high, but it is the further use of this information in its present delivered form that is lacking.
Other areas of research are required to establish base-lines and indices for drought damage in different categories (eg. agricultural drought, socio-economic drought). These indices need to be sourced from studies of past events, but will provide valuable data for assessing future losses and needs in future drought response. In addition, more research is required to demonstrate tele- connection links in Fiji and to investigate fine-scale climatic processes that appear to impact on different parts of the group.
Information Management
The paucity of data is a major problem in assessing impacts of past El Niño disasters. This in turn is required to assist in making cost-benefit economic analysis of long-term mitigation measures. A good example is with health statistics that showed increases in skin and nutritional diseases during the drought. However these effects were hard to segregate according to contributions of individual hazards that hit Fiji in the last six years. The solution to this data shortage is to establish indices of drought impacts and use these for future events.
In summary, some of the key lessons to be learned from the 1997/98 drought are the need for: a) Planning i. An effective overall drought response strategy. ii. Better dissemination of forecasts. iii. Education of the community in appropriate responses to drought. iv. Appropriate and timely multi-sectoral alleviation plans. v. Well-directed and nutritionally-balanced food assistance. b) Water and Environment i. Improved household self reliance for drinking water. ii. Better management of the reticulated water system. iii. Identification and mapping of ground water resources. iv. Clearer understanding of the impact of pine plantations on stream flows. v. More active management of the various watersheds. c) Income and Production i. Improved understanding of drought tolerant crops. ii. Acceleration of agricultural diversification programs.
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iii. Better understanding of where and when to plant. iv. Procedures for moving stock out of drought affected areas.
d) Forecasting and Early Warning Systems i. Simple house-keeping chores are still the best response actions and basic first mitigation response. ii. Strengthen work relationships between meteorologists, water managers and disaster managers. iii. Undertake assessment of vulnerability to drought of water sources – wells, streams and roof catchments. iv. Aim to provide users with at least 6 to 12 months lead-time to purchase material and make other preparations. v. Establish good linkage with media.
The most effective mitigation strategy is to prepare and publicise timely forecasts, along with providing good public education. If properly warned, most people will take action to minimise the impact of a drought disaster.
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REFERENCES
Animal Health and Production Division, 1998: Proposal for Drought Assistance for Ruminant Livestock. Animal Health and Production Division, Ministry of Agriculture Forestry and Fisheries, Fiji. Basher, R 1997: El-Niño – likely Impacts on the South Pacific Island Countries. New Zealand National Institute of Water and National Atmospheric Research Limited (NIWA), Wellington, New Zealand. Benson, C., 1996: The Economic Impact of Natural Disasters, Case Study Fiji. Development Strategy for Fiji 1997, Ministry of National Planning. Bi, N., 2000: Fiji Meteorological Services (FMS) report on 97/98 Drought Assessment and Forecasting Systems Used by Fiji Meteorological Services. Fiji, Bureau of Statistics, 1998: 1996 Census of Population and Housing, General Tables. 1998 Parliamentary Paper 43, Fiji Government. Chandra, R., Mason, K. (eds) 1998: An atlas of Fiji. Department of Geography, University of the South Pacific, Suva, Fiji. Glantz, M.H: 1996: Currents of change: El Niño’s impact on climate and society. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge. Kaloumaira et al., 1998: United Nations Disaster Assessment and Coordination Team (UNDAC) Fiji 1997/1998 Drought Study. Lightfoot, C., 1999: United Nations Development Program (UNDP – South Pacific Project Office) Report: Regional El Niño Social and Economic Drought Impact Assessment and Mitigation Study. [logged at SOPAC as SOPAC Technical Report 303]. Public Works Department (PWD) 2000: Report to the Fiji study on “Reducing the Impacts on Environmental Vulnerabilities through Early Warning and Preparedness: the Case of the El Niño Southern Oscillation”. Rynn, J., 2000: South Pacific Disaster Reduction Programme “Final Report for International Decade For Natural Disaster Reduction”.
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