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The Threat of Ballistic Missile Attack Is Growing Much Faster Than Had Been Missile Anticipated by US Intelligence Agencies

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The Threat of Ballistic Missile Attack Is Growing Much Faster Than Had Been Missile Anticipated by US Intelligence Agencies The threat of ballistic missile attack is growing much faster than had been Missile anticipated by US intelligence agencies. Threats By Bill Gertz and Defenses he threat of long-range missile T attack against the United States continues to grow, and Washington now is moving quickly to prepare to field defenses against such systems. This campaign comes on top of the exist- ing efforts to deal with theater range missile threats to deployed American military forces. The threat was highlighted recently by three flight tests of new medium- range missiles—in Iran, North Korea, and Pakistan—and development of new intercontinental-range weapons in China and Russia. A new report prepared by a blue-ribbon congressional panel presents an alarming picture of a “no warning” missile threat emerging around the world, created by states that see missiles as premier weapons for power projection and war. For the Pentagon, the bottom line is this: The threat of short-range missile attack on deployed US forces is here now. The even more dangerous threat of long-range missile strikes against 18 AIR FORCE Magazine / October 1998 The use of an actual Scud missile launcher, shown here in New Mexico, adds a touch of realism to military exercises. Counteracting such theater missiles is still the Pentagon’s first priority despite evidence that the long-range missile threat is escalating. US territory will emerge in the not too secret material, the panel concluded these systems are not yet spreading at distant future. that nations like Iran and North Korea the same rate, many nations will field The Pentagon’s Ballistic Missile are much closer to fielding long-range them in the next decade. Defense Organization will be spend- missiles than US intelligence agencies For many nations, missiles are at- ing billions over the next few years had previously estimated. tractive weapons, inasmuch as they on theater missile defense programs provide effective attacks against nations to thwart short- and medium-range Little or No Warning with formidable air defenses or where missiles fired in terror attacks or during “We see an environment of little or aircraft strikes are impractical or costly. major regional warfare. no warning of ballistic missile threats to While Russia and China are building BMDO this spring took a major stride the United States from several emerging new strategic systems, North Korea toward building a National Missile De- powers,” Rumsfeld said. He noted that and Iran are working on missiles with fense system with its award of a $1.6 missile development is getting a boost ranges of more than 1,000 miles. The billion contract to Boeing as the “lead from technology sold by established expectation is that these latter systems systems integrator” for a three-year missile powers like Russia and China. will be fitted with Weapons of Mass program to put together all the pieces The Air Force’s National Air Intel- Destruction, the center states. of a complex NMD system. ligence Center, which specializes in In April, Pakistan test fired its new The most alarming news from Wash- tracking worldwide ballistic missile Ghauri missile, an 800-mile-range weap- ington was the July report of the developments, made much the same on that US intelligence officials say Commission to Assess the Ballistic point. In a report issued in May, the appears identical to North Korea’s No Missile Threat to the United States, a center asserted that more than 25 na- Dong. “It looked like they took a No Dong bipartisan, congressionally appointed tions have ballistic missiles and that and painted it green,” said one official. panel of experts headed by former De- future conflicts involving US forces Then in July, Iran sent shock waves fense Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld. likely will involve missile exchanges. throughout the Middle East with its Members had unlimited access to all The center also issued a warning about first test firing of the new Shahab 3 US intelligence data on emerging mis- the proliferation of ground-hugging medium-range ballistic missile. Only DoD photo by PH1 (NAC) Stephen Batiz sile threats. After reviewing this top cruise missiles. It said that, though days earlier, the Rumsfeld commission AIR FORCE Magazine / October 1998 19 warned that a Shahab 3 test was im- minent and that its deployment would National Missile Defense Elements follow soon thereafter. The Shahab Ground-based interceptor. State-of-the-art, cost-effective, lightweight, non-nuclear, 3 can strike nations and US forces hit-to-kill system. Has two major elements—Exoatmospheric Kill Vehicle and fixed, land-based EKV booster. throughout the Mideast. Ground-based radar. X-band, phased array sensor for target tracking and dis- From the Far East came a warning crimination. from a US commander of forces in Upgrades to early warning radars. Modification of existing forward-based attack warning system to complement operation of an NMD system. Northeast Asia. He claimed North Korea Battle management/C3. Integration of interceptor and sensor operations com- has completed development of the No munications architecture. Dong missile, with its 800-mile range, Space sensor. Long wavelength, infrared early warning satellite such as Space and that the system is now fielded. The Based Infrared System. missile now threatens US troops based will go on mobile launchers. The cen- Theater Missile Defense Programs ter’s report states that Russia continues Patriot Advanced Capability 3 (PAC 3). Army system for low-altitude interception to invest heavily in its strategic missile of short- and medium-range warheads fired at troops and fixed assets. force, and most of its ICBMs are still on Navy Area BMD Program. Low-altitude interception system based on Navy alert, capable of being launched within AEGIS cruisers and destroyers, using AN/SPY-1 radar and AEGIS Combat System computers and Standard Missile 2 Block IV. Defense against short- and medium- minutes of receiving a launch order. Rus- range missile attacks. sia, despite severe economic problems, Theater High Altitude Area Defense. Ground-based Army system for intercep- expects to maintain the largest force tion of longer-range missiles at high altitude. Exo- and endoatmospheric hit-to-kill engagements. of land-based strategic missiles in the Navy Theater Wide BMD Program. Sea-based system using Navy AEGIS system world, according to the center. and improved, longer-range interceptor missile for exoatmospheric engagement of Air Force Lt. Gen. Lester L. Lyles, the missiles. Airborne Laser. Air Force program to integrate a high-power laser on a wide-body BMDO director, spoke recently to Air aircraft to attack ballistic missiles in boost phase. Force Magazine about emerging threats and planned responses. The general said the recent medium-range missile tests and the Rumsfeld commission assessment in Japan and Okinawa, he said. North difficult to counterattack at any stage of emerging threats have not altered the Korea made a successful launch Aug. 31 of its operation. They predict the DF- Clin ton Administration’s current “3+3” of a new, 1,000-mile range Taepo Dong 1. 31 will pose a significant threat to US National Missile Defense program. No Patriot anti-missile systems have forces deployed in the Pacific theater, The program called for spending three been deployed at Japanese sites to portions of the continental United years developing technical capabilities defend against the new threats, though States, and many US allies. The missile for a nationwide American defense Patriots are based in South Korea as will be extremely hard to detect because system and then, in 2000, making a deci- shields against shorter range Scud of its mobility and will be able to hit sion about whether the threat warrants missiles. “No Dong is now a viable portions of the western United States. a three-year drive to actually deploy a system,” the officer said. A Pentagon official also noted recently limited system (by 2003). This initial The CIA reported in May that 13 of that DoD had detected a surge in Chinese system could handle attacks from only China’s 18 long-range missiles are targeted production of its CSS-4 Mod 2 ICBM. a few missiles; it could not withstand an on US cities. The report, circulated within In the first four months of the year, Bei- all-out missile assault of the kind that government, contrasted sharply with jing produced six new ICBMs and will could be generated by Russia. statements by President Clinton that no produce two more before temporarily missiles are pointed at the United States. closing operations as part of a two-year The Hedge Program As if to highlight its growing missile defense industry restructuring. “In some respects, 3+3 was always capabilities, China conducted a rocket China also is building a second new devised as sort of a hedge program,” motor test of its new DF-31 ICBM on ICBM called the DF-41 with an esti- Lyles said, when asked how recent July 1 as the President visited China. US mated range of more than 7,000 miles developments have affected his work. intelligence agencies detected the ground that is expected to be deployed, on “We’ve always considered that a threat test of the motor that will power China’s mobile launchers as well, soon after the may materialize very quickly. So the new mobile ICBM, which is expected DF-31 is fielded. The threat from China first three years of our program of to be deployed in the next two years. was revealed in a new defensive strategy development and testing really is not report released by Beijing in July. impacted. We don’t think we can go “Significant Threat” Russia, too, is modernizing its ICBM any quicker.
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