NeMia Northeast MichigaN iNtegrated assessMeNt Final Report MICHU-09-207 NeMia Northeast MichigaN Integrated assessMeNt Final report Citation: Michigan Sea Grant (2009). Northeast Michigan Integrated Assessment Final Report. [MICHU-09-207] Available at: www.miseagrant.umich.edu Acknowledgements Michigan Sea Grant would like to thank the many Northeast Michigan stakeholders who voluntarily participated in this process. Whether helping decide the focal question, commenting on a technical assessment, or voicing an opinion on potential actions, the enthusiasm, commitment, and knowledge of the stakeholders were integral to the success of this integrated assessment. We would also like to thank all of the peer reviewers for their time and expertise in reviewing these assessments. Their comments and advice certainly improved the final product, which we hope will improve regional efforts at developing sustainable coastal tourism in Northeast Michigan. The following Michigan Sea Grant staff members deserve recognition for their contributions to this integrated assessment: Brandon Schroeder coordinated stakeholder engagement; Jen Read managed the technical assessments; Keely Dinse led the peer review process and compiled the final document; and Todd Marsee designed the cover and chapter title pages. Finally, we appreciate the following organizations for providing important resources – meeting space, funding, and personnel – in support of this project: American Institute of Architects Community Foundation for Northeast Michigan Michigan Coastal Zone Management Program Thunder Bay Marine Sanctuary For more information Brandon Schroeder Michigan Sea Grant Extension Educator (989) 984-1056 [email protected] MICHU-09-207 NORTHEAST MICHIGAN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ..................................................................................................iv Chapter 1: Introduction .............................................................................................6 Chapter 2: Socioeconomic Assessment .....................................................................22 Chapter 3: Ecological Assessment .............................................................................91 Chapter 4: Cultural Assessment ................................................................................135 Chapter 5: Planning and Zoning Assessment .............................................................161 Chapter 6: Sustainable Design Assessment ...............................................................229 Chapter 7: Policy Actions and Implementation Guidance ............................................271 List of Participants ....................................................................................................337 iii EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Northeast Michigan Integrated Assessment (NEMIA) was conducted for the three-county region of Presque Isle, Alpena, and Alcona Counties in Northeast Michigan. The goal of this integrated assessment was to address the following question, as selected by NEMIA stakeholders: How can coastal access be designed, in a regional context for sustainable tourism that stimulates economic development while maintaining the integrity of natural and cultural resources and quality of life? To address this question, assessment teams were assembled to conduct value-independent descriptions of the status and trends of environmental, social, and economic conditions related to the question, as well as consider the causes and consequences of those conditions. This report documents the work of the assessment teams, as well as an introductory chapter outlining the project process, and a concluding chapter that provides guidance for implementing the actions identified through the process. The introductory chapter (Chapter 1) provides a history of the project, detailed background on the method and process, the Northeast Michigan region, the stakeholder meetings, and the policy context surrounding the topic of this assessment. The socioeconomic assessment (Chapter 2) uses demographic, economic, recreation, and travel data to create Geographic Information System (GIS) layers, a traffic flow model, and a tourism economic input model that estimates total visitor spending in the area and associated economic effects. The ecological inventory (Chapter 3) compiled existing digital spatial data layers and developed maps to highlight the ecologically valuable features throughout the region. The goal was to illustrate the ecological features that policy makers should focus on protecting and promoting for their ecological value as well as their value in developing regional ecotourism. Similarly the cultural assessment team used data from existing documents, databases, and initiatives to inventory, describe, and chart (e.g. underwater shipwrecks) coastal cultural assets of the region, both on coastal lands and in Lake Huron waters (Chapter 4). Assets are organized by county (Alcona, Alpena, and Presque Isle) and by themes (lighthouses, shipwrecks, etc.). The goal of this assessment was to organize existing data into formats that can be used to support and inform coastal access-related actions. The planning and zoning assessment team conducted content analyses of local comprehensive plans and zoning ordinances, interviewed local elected officials and decision-makers to examine the extent to which local governments appear to be taking steps to advance sustainability goals through their current planning and development management efforts. They also analyzed potential build-out scenarios illustrating the various land development patterns the region might experience in the foreseeable future based on current zoning. The findings from the planning and zoning assessment (Chapter 5) set the stage for the analysis and recommendations made by the Sustainable Design Assessment Team (SDAT) report (Chapter 6). Northeast Michigan was chosen by the American Institute of Architects to receive a Sustainability Design Assessment Team grant. The program included an intensive 3-day site visit iv by a multidisciplinary team of professionals with experience in sustainability principles. This chapter emphasizes the need to think regionally about Northeast Michigan’s future. The team provided input on five issues relevant to the future of northeast Michigan: sustainable vision, economic prosperity, sense of place, environmental resources, and land use. The final chapter is Policy Actions and Implementation Guidance (Chapter 7), which concludes the integrated assessment by providing approaches and activities for implementing preferred policy options as selected by the NEMIA stakeholders The Ecological and Planning and Zoning Assessments and Implementation Guidance were peer- reviewed by at least two experts with extensive experience and knowledge about the subject matter. The Sociological Assessment was reviewed by one expert. The authors took the reviewers’ comments into consideration when preparing their final reports. Peer review comments and authors’ responses are available upon request. v NortHEAST MICHIGAN Integrated ASSESSMENT CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION NEMIA - Introduction 6 1. INTRODUCTION Erica Powell, School of Natural Resources and Environment, University of Michigan 1.1 WHAT IS AN INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT? An integrated assessment (IA) brings together policy makers, scientists, and key stakeholders to address a common issue of concern through collaboration and a formal analysis process. An IA is an approach to synthesizing and delivering relevant, independent scientific input to decision making through a comprehensive analysis of existing natural and social scientific information in the context of a policy or management question (Michigan Sea Grant [MSG], 2005a). The goal of an IA is to link existing natural and social scientific knowledge about a problem with policy options in order to help decision makers evaluate possible actions. Integrated assessment is formally defined as an interdisciplinary process of combining, interpreting and communicating knowledge from diverse scientific disciplines, in such a way that the whole set of cause-effect interactions of a problem can be evaluated from a synoptic perspective with two characteristics: (1) it should have added value compared to single disciplinary assessment; and (2) it should provide useful information to decision makers (Rotmans & Dowlatabadi, 1997). Integrated assessments are useful for ensuring that both economic and environmental interests are represented in management decisions by including representatives of both the natural and social sciences. Additionally, by not recommending one specific option, policy makers can select the best option of many. Independent peer review of scientific information also adds credibility to the process. This process has been used to evaluate long-term and complex issues such as global climate change and hypoxia. 1.2 INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT EXAMPLES The U.S. National Assessment of the Potential Consequences of Climate Variability and Change, conducted from 1997 to 2000, was based on IA methodology. The goal of the assessment was to analyze and evaluate what was known about the potential consequences of climate variability and change for the United States in the context of other pressures on the public, the environment, and the nation's resources. The assessment was mandated by the Global Change Research Act of 1990 (P.L. 101-606) and was directed by the Committee on Environment and Natural Resources (CENR)