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Black Hills NOV 25 2014 Leidos PAGS Report.Pdf Final Report Pueblo Airport Generation Site Risk Analysis Black Hills Electric Corporation Colorado PUC E-Filings System November 25, 2014 P:\\012094\311070\PAGS Site Risk Analysis Final Report Pueblo Airport Generation Site Risk Analysis Black Hills Electric Corporation November 25, 2014 This report has been prepared for the use of the client for the specific purposes identified in the report. The conclusions, observations and recommendations contained herein attributed to Leidos constitute the opinions of Leidos. To the extent that statements, information and opinions provided by the client or others have been used in the preparation of this report, Leidos has relied upon the same to be accurate, and for which no assurances are intended and no representations or warranties are made. Leidos makes no certification and gives no assurances except as explicitly set forth in this report. © 2014 Leidos, Inc. All rights reserved. Pueblo Airport Generation Site Risk Analysis Black Hills Corporation Table of Contents Letter of Transmittal Table of Contents List of Tables List of Figures Section 1 INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE ....................................................... 1-1 Section 2 PAGS POWER PLANT FACILITIES ................................................... 2-1 2.1 Existing PAGS Power Plant..................................................................... 2-1 2.2 Approved PUC Expansion – Future Generation ...................................... 2-1 2.3 Future Generation .................................................................................... 2-1 Section 3 LOCATION RISK .................................................................................... 3-1 3.1 Extreme Seismic and Weather Events ..................................................... 3-1 3.1.1 Earthquake (Seismic) ................................................................... 3-1 3.1.2 Tornado ........................................................................................ 3-1 3.1.3 Ice Storm ...................................................................................... 3-1 3.1.4 Flooding ....................................................................................... 3-2 3.2 Substation Interconnection ....................................................................... 3-2 3.3 Generation Planning Constructability Review ......................................... 3-3 3.4 Environmental and Regulatory Risks ...................................................... 3-3 3.5 Gas Supply ............................................................................................... 3-5 3.5.1 Gas Supply Characteristics .......................................................... 3-6 3.5.2 Future Expansion ......................................................................... 3-6 3.6 Water Supply ........................................................................................... 3-7 Section 4 TRANSMISSION SYSTEM INTEGRATION & STABILITY ........... 4-1 4.1.1 Transmission System Reliability ................................................. 4-1 4.1.2 100 MW Generation Deployment Scenarios ............................... 4-1 4.1.3 Interconnection Studies ................................................................ 4-1 4.1.4 Regional Transmission System Issues ......................................... 4-2 4.1.5 Existing Site Substation and Expansion ...................................... 4-3 Section 5 CONCLUSIONS ....................................................................................... 5-1 5.1 Weather .................................................................................................... 5-1 5.2 Natural Gas Supply .................................................................................. 5-1 5.3 Transmission and Interconnection ........................................................... 5-1 5.4 Environmental .......................................................................................... 5-2 5.5 Water Supply ........................................................................................... 5-3 File: P:\\012094\311070\PAGS Gen Site Risk Table of Contents List of Appendices A Earthquakes and Extreme Weather ii Leidos, Inc. Generation Site Risk Analysis_11-25-14 - Final.docx Table of Contents List of Tables Table A-1 Other Extreme Weather Events .............................................................. A-23 Table A-2 Historical Tornado Events ...................................................................... A-24 File: P:\\012094\311070\Pags Gen Site Risk Leidos, Inc. iii Table of Contents List of Figures Figure 2-1: Pueblo Airport Generating Station Vicinity Map .................................... 2-2 Figure 2-2: Pueblo Airport Generating Station Property Boundary ........................... 2-3 Figure 2-3: PAGS Site Plan ........................................................................................ 2-4 Figure 2-4: Pueblo Airport Generating Station Google Image ................................... 2-5 Figure 3-1: Pipeline Future Expansion ....................................................................... 3-7 Figure A.2: Colorado Seismic History Map .............................................................. A-1 Figure A.3: U.S. Seismic Hazard Chart ..................................................................... A-1 Figure A.4: Isoeismal Map ........................................................................................ A-3 Figure A.5: States with the Most Quakes .................................................................. A-4 Figure A.6: Magnitude Scale and Designation ........................................................ A-16 Figure A.7: Average Annual Number of Tornadoes 1991-2010 ............................. A-20 Figure A.8: Annual Tornado Map 1955 .................................................................. A-21 Figure A.9: Annual Tornado Map 1993 .................................................................. A-21 Figure A.10: Annual Tornado Map 2003 ................................................................ A-22 Figure A.11: Maximum Ice Severity Levels for the Western Part of the United States .................................................................................................. A-25 Figure A.12: Ice Event Map for the Western Part of the United States ................... A-26 Figure A.13: Arkansas River at Avondale ............................................................... A-29 Figure A.14: Arkansas River Floodplain ................................................................. A-29 iv Leidos, Inc. Generation Site Risk Analysis_11-25-14 - Final.docx Section 1 INTRODUCTION AND PURPOSE Black Hills/Colorado Electric Utility Company L.P. ( “Black Hills”) contracted with Leidos Engineering LLC (“Consultant”) to prepare a “Risk Assessment” associated with Black Hills proposed expansion of the Pueblo Airport Generating Station (“PAGS”). The PAGS facility is operated by Black Hills Corporation and serves the load serving entity of Black Hills Energy in the Pueblo, Colorado community. PAGS is currently a nominal 380 MW power plant located one mile and a quarter west of the runway at the Pueblo, Colorado Airport. The purpose of this report is to address the Colorado Public Utilities Commission’s (“PUC”) direction in Docket 0445E, 0446E and 0447E, Stipulation and Settlement Agreement, November 7, 2013, that Black Hills shall “study and address the issue of location risk and mitigation of any such risk” in conjunction with a proposal to expand the generation at PAGS beyond the previously approved plan to install a new LM6000 at the PAGS site. File: P:\\012094\311070\Pags Gen Site Risk Section 2 PAGS POWER PLANT FACILITIES 2.1 Existing PAGS Power Plant The existing PAGS facility is situated on a 240 acre site located near Pueblo, Colorado as shown in Figure 2-1. PAGS consists of two simple cycle and two combined cycle generating units with a total nominal capacity of approximately 380 MW that began commercial operation on January 1, 2012. Units 1 and 2 are General Electric (GE) model LMS100 units each rated at 90 MW at ambient temperature of 95°F. Units 3 and 4 are GE model LM6000 combined cycle units in a 2x1 configuration, each with a capacity of 100 MW, at ambient temperature of 95°F. Figures 2-2 and 2-3 illustrate the layout of the PAGS generating facility in relation to the existing 240 acre site. Figure 2-4 is Google Map photo of the site and facilities. Gas supply to the PAGS site is delivered via two 12-inch gas lines which connect to CIG. Water supply to the PAGS site is delivered via two 16-inch water lines that feed the site from two different City of Pueblo (“City”) pressure zones to provide additional water system reliability. PAGS is electrically interconnected to the region grid via the existing on-site Baculite Mesa 115 kV Substation which is shown in Figure 2-3. This substation is a breaker and one-half configuration with two normally energized buses. The configuration includes one open bay that can accommodate additional new generation. The substation has five 115 kV transmission lines terminating at that site. 2.2 Approved PUC Expansion – Future Generation Black Hills has filed and received approval from the PUC to add an additional LM6000 combustion turbine to the PAGS site. This new unit is currently planned to be installed on the south side of the two existing combined cycle units, as shown on Figure 2-3. 2.3 Future Generation In response to its All Source Resource
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