23. Extracts from Arun Transport Study for Strategic Development
ARUN TRANSPORT STUDY FOR STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT Options and Sustainable Transport Measures
06/03/2013 Revised:
Quality Management
Issue/revision Issue 1 Revision 1 Revision 2 Revision 3 Remarks Draft Rev 1 Date March 2013 April 2013 Prepared by E Butler/ L Walton E Butler Signature Checked by A Cowan A Cowan Signature Authorised by P Day P Day Signature Project number 50400570 50400570 Report number File reference N:\50400570 - Arun DC Transport Study\C Documents\Reports\Working\Final Report\Arun Transport Study - report 29042013.docx
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ARUN TRANSPORT STUDY FOR STRATEGIC DEVELOPMENT Options and Sustainable Transport Measures
06/03/2013
Client Arun District Council
Consultant WSP UK Limited Mountbatten House Basingstoke RG21 4HJ UK
Tel: +44 (0)12 5631 8831 Fax: +44 1256 318 700 www.wspgroup.co.uk
Registered Address WSP UK Limited 01383511 WSP House, 70 Chancery Lane, London, WC2A 1AF
WSP Contacts Alan Cowan Associate Tel: +44 (0)12 5631 8831
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Table of Contents 1 Introduction ...... 6 2 Model Scenarios and Development Schemes ...... 7 3 Trip Rates ...... 15 4 Do Something Scenario ...... 18 5 Network Wide Results ...... 22 6 Detailed Model Results ...... 30 7 Individual Junction Assessment ...... 37 8 Impacts of Schemes and Developments ...... 66 9 Summary ...... 95 Appendix A – Zone Names ...... 97 Appendix B – 2031 Do Minimum Difference Plots ...... 99 Appendix C – 2031 Do Something Difference Plots ...... 100 Appendix D – 2031 Option 2 Do Minimum Strategic Development Trip Distribution Plots ...... 101 Appendix E – 2031 Option 3 Do Minimum Strategic Development Trip Distribution Plots ...... 102 Appendix F – 2031 Option 2 Do Something Strategic Development Trip Distribution Plots ...... 103 Appendix G – 2031 Option 3 Do Something Strategic Development Trip Distribution Plots ...... 104 Appendix H – 2020 V/C Plots ...... 105 Appendix I – 2031 V/C Plots ...... 106 Appendix J – 2031 Do Something Junction Improvements ...... 107
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Executive Summary This report sets out the findings of the Arun Transport Study for Strategic Development and explains the methodology underpinning the results. This is a result of close liaison between WSP and Arun District Council (ADC), West Sussex County Council (WSCC) and the Highways Agency (HA). The West Sussex County Transport Model (WSCTM) has been used to assess three different growth options in a forecast year of 2031. These growth options assume a constant level of employment across all options, but a varying level of new residential development based on the inclusion of different potential Strategic Development Locations (SDLs). The impact of “soft” measures such as personal travel planning or enforced parking standards, as set out in the DfT’s Smarter Choices initiative, have been taken into account, with more rigorous schemes recommended for SDLs as part of a mitigation package. Scenarios have been modelled that include the SDLs and new infrastructure schemes supplied by ADC, WSCC and the HA. These have been supplemented with additional scheme improvements recommended by WSP where relevant, and include improvements at: Ŷ A259 Corridor Ŷ Angmering Link Ŷ A259 Realignment Ŷ Lyminster Bypass Ŷ A27 Crossbush Ŷ A27 Fontwell Ŷ A27 Ford Improvements to the A259 corridor offer a high level of benefit, and this scheme, more than any other, can be tied directly into the impact of strategic development traffic. The Angmering Link is complementary to this scheme, as it relieves pressures on the A259 and provides an alternative point of access for existing local traffic. The A29 Realignment is beneficial to SDL traffic, as well as attracting a high volume of existing strategic traffic, which would benefit residents along the existing A29 corridor at Woodgate and Westergate. The completion of the Lyminster Bypass results in traffic switching to the new route, generating benefits for the residents of Lyminster. However, this is not strongly linked to any of the SDLs. Improvements to the A27 junction at Crossbush offer clear tangible benefits to road users, principally those undertaking through-movements on the A27. A significant improvement has been suggested to the operation of the A27 / A29 roundabout at Fontwell, facilitating movements for new SDL traffic and existing road users. An improvement to the western roundabout exit at the A27 Ford roundabout has been recommended, although land constraints in this area prevent any substantial improvement to the design. Consequently, targeted personal travel planning in the Arundel area has been recommended as a means of reducing local demand at this junction.
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1 Introduction 1.1.1 WSP has been appointed by Arun District Council to undertake an assessment of Strategic Development Locations (SDLs) within the district. The Consultancy Brief for the study sets out the aims of the project which are to: Ŷ Inform the consideration of strategic development options for the Local Plan Ŷ Identify the impact of development options on existing transport infrastructure and public transport services Ŷ Propose appropriate mitigation measures, taking into account existing plans and proposals – established or emerging - from the local and strategic highway and planning authorities alongside any new suggestions Ŷ Provide “ball park” estimates of the costs of provision and maintenance of any new infrastructure required. Ŷ Inform consideration of the sustainable transport options and assumptions to be incorporated into the Local Plan evidence base and infrastructure planning that will inform the development of a Community Infrastructure Levy. Ŷ Address the requirements of both West Sussex County Council as Highway Authority and the Highways Agency, both of which aim for a sustainable approach to transport with a common objective of managing travel demand to minimise congestion, delays and adverse environmental / safety impacts. 1.1.2 Our approach to the study is set out in our fee proposal issued 24 September 2012. The project uses the West Sussex County Transport Model (WSCTM), which is validated to match 2008 base year traffic conditions, to assess the impact of a range of possible development locations on the highway network, with subsequent formulation of a mitigation strategy for the preferred option. 1.1.3 The methodology adopted in this study considers network stress in a number of scenarios and the impact a number of schemes have on mitigating network stress. The study is not intended to provide a detailed review of the benefits of each scheme. As such, it does not consider design issues, economic benefits, environmental impacts or safety issues. 1.1.4 An inception meeting was held on 8 October 2012 where a number of assumptions were discussed but some further information was required from additional sources before all assumptions could be agreed. This is set out in the study Scoping Report issued 15 November 2012. The initial model strategic modelling results using the WSCTM were set out in the Identification of Key Junctions report issued January 2013. 1.1.5 This document sets out the final study results of the strategic modelling using the WSCTM. It identifies the impacts of each modelled scenario on the network and provides detailed junction modelling and recommendations for key junctions across the district. The report is set out as follows: Ŷ Section 2 - Model Scenarios and Development Details Ŷ Section 3 – Trip Generation Ŷ Section 4 – Do Something Scenario Ŷ Section 5 – Network Wide Results Ŷ Section 6 – Detailed Model Results Ŷ Section 7 – Individual Junction Assessment Ŷ Section 8 – Impacts of Schemes and Developments Ŷ Section 9 - Summary
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2 Model Scenarios and Development Schemes
2.1 Introduction 2.1.1 The methodology adopted for the study follows a two-tier approach. Firstly, the West Sussex County Transport Model (WSCTM) is used to provide an overall strategic assessment of the performance of the future year network. This is a strategic modelling tool that represents key movements across the county, and is validated to match observed conditions on strategic routes, rather than at an individual junction level. As such, it is a useful tool to identify likely congestion pressures and provide a comparative assessment of different scenarios, but it is not a suitable tool to provide detailed analysis of individual junctions. Instead, the results of the strategic analysis are used to inform the more detailed assessment. 2.1.2 The second tier of the assessment involves analysis using detailed junction models for a series of key junctions. These detailed models take into account the individual geometric characteristics of a particular junction, so are an appropriate tool for assessing forecast congestion and testing potential mitigation measures.
2.2 Model Scenarios 2.2.1 The study required three different growth scenarios to be modelled for 2031, these are: Ŷ Option 1: Low housing target – 400 homes/year Ŷ Option 2: Medium housing target – 565 homes/year Ŷ Option 3: High housing target – 900 homes/year 2.2.2 The assessment was initially intended to be undertaken for 2028, as that represented the end of the 15-year plan period. However, following discussions with ADC, it was agreed that this should be revised to 2031, to tie in the results with other studies. 2.2.3 The model scenarios developed in the WSCTM to date are shown below. All models have been run for the AM peak hour only. 2.2.4 Forecasts are based on information obtained from the National Trip End Model (NTEM), obtained using the TEMPRO database. This is compliant with guidance set out in WebTAG (Web-based Transport Assessment Guidance, published by the Department for Transport).
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Table 2.1 - Model Scenarios
ID Name Year Assumptions
M1 Baseline 2020 Consistent with NTEM 6.2, with growth distributed across area
M2 Baseline 2031 Consistent with NTEM 6.2, with growth distributed across area
Apply Alternate Assumptions to remove strategic growth, equivalent M3 Reference Case 2020 to totals set out in Option 2 Apply Alternate Assumptions to remove strategic growth, equivalent M4 Reference Case 2031 to totals set out in Option 2
M5 DM Option 1 2031 M4 + Strategic Developments Option 1 (Low – 400 homes/year)
M4 + Strategic Developments Option 2 (Medium – 565 M6 DM Option 2 2031 homes/year)
M7 DM Option 3 2031 M4 + Strategic Developments Option 3 (High – 900 homes/year)
M10 DS Option 2 2031 M6 + Mitigation schemes
M11 DS Option 3 2031 M7 + Mitigation schemes
2.2.5 The total volume of strategic development to remove from NTEM when developing the Reference Case scenario is the same as that set for Option 2 as this is consistent with the South East Plan. 2.2.6 The existing WSCTM forecast years are 2016 and 2026. Consequently we have based the 2020 forecasts for this study on the existing forecasts for 2016, and the 2031 forecasts on the existing 2026 forecasts, with appropriate account taken for the changes in forecast year. The 2020 forecasts provide an interim point between the present day and the end of the plan period, thus providing an indication of the trend in background traffic growth.
2.3 Committed Developments 2.3.1 The committed developments and improvement schemes within Arun and neighbouring districts have been reviewed. Information has been provided by Adur District Council, Worthing Borough Council, Chichester District Council and Horsham District Council. 2.3.2 The committed strategic developments in Table 2.2 are within the study area and have already been included in the WSCTM forecasts. It has been confirmed by WSCC and the relevant districts that these details are still relevant, and therefore no further changes have been made to the model in relation to these developments.
Table 2.2 – Unchanged Existing Committed Developments
ID Authority Development Size Highway Public Transport Complete New junction with A24, new D2AP link to A264, junction E1 Horsham West of Horsham 2000 dwellings New bus service 2023 improvements at Farthings Hill, Great Daux, Robin Hood New junction on A264, signal Extension of Fastway + E2 Horsham West of Bewbush 2500 dwellings improvements at A23/A2220, 2023 new bus service M23 J11, A264/A2220
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2.3.3 The committed strategic developments in Table 2.3 have been included in the WSCTM forecasts previously but the scope of these developments has changed in the intervening period. Table 2.3 – Updated Existing Committed Developments
Assumed ID Authority Development Size Highway Public Transport Complete Site 6 North E3 Arun 650 dwellings Bognor Regis Relief Road New bus service 2020 Bersted
E4 Arun Site Six Felpham 700 dwellings Bognor Regis Relief Road New bus service 2026
E5 Chichester Graylingwell 750 homes N/A New bus service 2020 2021 – 615 homes Shoreham 2028 – 1352 E6 Adur Harbour (excl. homes No proposals No proposals 2031 Brighton & Hove) 2031 – 1530 homes + 666 additional jobs Capacity improvement at E7 Worthing West Durrington 700 homes New bus service 2020 Titnore Lane
2.3.4 These sites are included in the existing forecasts, but associated trips are only included in overall background growth. The model has been modified to ensure that appropriate site specific travel demand is modelled. The WSCTM Trip Generation tool was used to calculate appropriate demand for these sites. 2.3.5 In addition to the above, the following schemes within the study area have been identified as new commitments since the production of the WSCTM forecasts. Table 2.4 - New Committed Developments
Assumed ID Authority Development Size Highway Public Transport Complete 600 dwellings, Bus access via Courtwick 4000sqm B1 + New signalised junction on N1 Arun Courtwick Farm Lane. Divert existing No. 2020 235 sqm A259 opposite Eldon Way 12 service A1/2/3 New signalised junction at Mill 1260 Lane/A284; new link from site, dwellings, Toddington across railway connecting to New bus routes as per Fig N2 Arun 13000 sqm B1 2020 Nurseries A259 with new roundabout; 3.3 of TA plus ancillary completion of Fitzalan Link uses from A259 to East St 6336 sqm Widen current egress to site to Stagecoach Route 9 and retail area accommodate buses, coaches Coastliner 700 directly N3 Arun Asda, Ferring (2800 sqm and delivery vehicles. New car 2020 access site with bus stop food 3535 park of 485 spaces and 82 at entrance non-food) space overflow 4744sqm GIA Morrisons, foodstore, Existing junctions able to Existing services already N4 Arun 2020 Littlehampton 3368sqm B1a handle future traffic growth in place office 360sqm A1, Haskins Garden 1071sqm B8 No changes to existing access Existing bus stop at site to N5 Arun 2020 Centre, Angmering (net loss of points be retained 293sqm) Existing loop road stopped up. 9163sqm Access onto A29 retained as Sainsbury’s, GFA, for Clock Park and Green Existing bus services N6 Arun 2020 Bognor Regis 5618sqm Topper site. Access from accessible from A29 sales area Shripney Road will be via a new signalised junction.
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Assumed ID Authority Development Size Highway Public Transport Complete Spur road access roundabout Increase to and A529 New Road / Spur Already a dedicated bus Sainsbury’s, N7 Arun sales area of Road signalised junction can service with stop in car 2020 Rustington 2206sqm accommodate increase in park traffic adequately 260 apartments; New signalised junction on 2,780 sqm Teville Road. Access to upper office, 4,380 level car park via one way sqm Already close to rail system involving Railway superstore, station and bus services. Teville Gate Approach & Oxford Road. Adur & 88-bed hotel. Proposed general N8 (Worthing Hertford Road changing to one 2020 Worthing 3,520 sqm improvements to Gateway) way southbound. Linked cinema, 4,000 interchange and bus stop signals between A24/Teville sqm infrastructure. Road/Chapel Road junction restaurant and and A24 Newland Road 1,385 sqm junction. private fitness club by 2020 120 dwellings; 1,000 sqm A1 Adur & N9 Aquarena retail & A3 No proposal No proposal 2020 Worthing food and drink units 146 flats; Existing access via Field Place 2,038 sqm Adur & Parade to be close to general Already close to rail N10 The Causeway food retail & 2020 Worthing traffic. New access from The station and bus services. 775 sqm B1a Causeway proposed. employment Single priority access into Adur & Worthing Sixth Already close to rail N11 265 dwellings development from Bolsover 2020 Worthing Form College station and bus services. Road Adur & N12 Sea Place 117 dwellings No proposal No proposal 2020 Worthing 117 dwellings; New priority access onto 50-odd Littlehampton Road. Staff and Adur & Northbrook employee car N13 service entrance for care No proposal 2020 Worthing College showroom & home via new access from 84-room care Yeoman Way. home Adur & N14 Graton Site 100 dwellings No proposal No proposal 2020 Worthing Rousillon N15 Chichester Barracks, Broyle 252 dwellings No proposal No proposal 2020 Road
2.3.6 It should be noted that the WSCTM only includes bus routes between settlement areas, local changes to routes within settlements as listed above have not been modelled. 2.3.7 The initial distributions for the committed development sites have been derived using existing zone distributions. Representative model zones have been chosen based on location and comparative land use. These distributions are used only to inform the initial trip distribution, as the WSCTM incorporates an incremental trip distribution model that adjusts the distribution based on relative travel cost between zones. 2.3.8 Committed development zone information is shown in Table 2.5.
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Table 2.5 - Committed Development Site Zone Distribution
ID Development Model Zone Distribution Zones
399 30,31,34,321,322, E3 Site 6 North Bersted 400 30,31,34,321,322,
401 36,37,325,326 E4 Site Six Felpham 402 36,37,325,326
403 14,16,17,315 E5 Graylingwell 404 14,16,17,315
E6 Shoreham Waterside 405 132,133,134,135,360,361
E7 West Durrington 406 114,115,353,356
N1 Courtwick Farm 407 127,128,129,130,357
408 129,130,131,358 N2 Toddington Nurseries 409 129,130,131,358
N3 Asda, Ferring 410 112,113,114,117,118
N4 Morrisons, Littlehampton 411 127,128,129,130,357
N5 Haskins Garden Centre, Angmering 412 117,119,120,345
N6 Sainsbury’s, Bognor Regis 413 36,37,325,326
N7 Sainsbury’s, Rustington 414 119,122,123,124,125,126
N8 Teville Gate (Worthing Gateway) 415 105,109,116,354
N9 Aquarena 416 105,109,116,354
N10 The Causeway 417 112,113,114,353,355
N11 Worthing Sixth Form College 418 112,113,114,353,355
N12 Sea Place 419 109,111,112,113,354
420 113,114,115,117 N13 Northbrook College 421 113,114,115,117
N14 Graton Site 422 105,109,116,354
N15 Rousillon Barracks, Broyle Road 423 14,16,17,315 2.3.9 A list of the above zones showing the relevant zone name is included in Appendix A. 2.3.10 In addition to the changes to the committed developments listed above, there has also been a change in the status of some of the previously committed highway improvement schemes. The schemes that were updated are as follows: Table 2.6 – Updated Highway Schemes
WSCTM Scheme Status Action ID A27 Chichester Bypass A1 No commitment Remove from forecasts Improvements A29 Bury to Whiteways Lodge – G2 Scheme complete, but not to full extent Revise to match completed scheme 60mph > 50mph New scheme - updated design from pinch- XX Ford Roundabout Code new scheme point funding A286 Chichester to Cocking XX Fully committed Code new scheme Route Safety Scheme
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2.4 Strategic Developments 2.4.1 The following strategic housing developments have been incorporated into the options assessed. The Angmering SHLAA sites in Option 2 have been scaled according to their relative proportions in Option 3 to meet the proposed total of 490 homes. Table 2.7 - Strategic Housing Sites
ID Allocation Site Access Opt 1 Opt 2 Opt 3 Northern access – Barnham Road via existing nursery access. Western access Eastergate / – Westergate Street, opposite Meadow H1 Westergate / Three Villages 0 2000 2500 Way. Southern access – A29, north of Barnham waste water treatment works, south of Headhone Barns Angmering Total 0 490 1185
Assume access onto Arundel Road and H2 Angmering SHLAA Site 109 0 0 175 Dapper’s Lane
H3 Angmering SHLAA Site 82 Assume access onto Dapper’s Lane 0 0 380
H4 Angmering SHLAA Site 80 Access onto Roundstone Lane 0 226 290
H5 Angmering SHLAA Site 48 Access onto Roundstone Lane 0 264 340 Extension of Bognor Regis Relief Road with two links to development – creating Bognor Regis junctions with A259 and Chalcraft Lane H6 0 0 2500 Eco-Quarter and another junction north of the A259 / North Bersted development junction. Access will be off these links Existing access via Ferry Road, H7 Westbank River Arun proposed raised access to the site from 1000 1000 1000 A259
2.4.2 The following strategic employment sites have been tested in all strategic testing scenarios:
Table 2.8 - Strategic Employment Sites
ID Allocation Site Access Site (ha) GFA (sqm) Use Existing access via 20 (entire size Ferry Road, proposed W1 Westbank River Arun including 5,574 A1/B8 raised access to the site residential) from A259 Bognor Regis Access onto A29 / W2 Salt Box 11.8 19,600 B1c/B2 Enterprise Zone Northern Relief Road Bognor Regis Rowan Park Upgraded site access W3 3.3 8,000 B1a Enterprise Zone Caravan Club on Rowan Way Bognor Regis New access onto A259 / W4 Oldlands Farm 23.8 33,900 B1c/B2 Enterprise Zone Northern Relief Road New link road Bognor Regis connecting A259 W5 Former LEC Airfield 30.5 9,400 B1 Enterprise Zone Felpham Way and BRRR W6 Angmering Land at Water Lane Spur from A280 8.9 3,500 B1
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2.4.3 No network improvements have been included for the strategic employment development sites beyond the site access works for the Do Minimum scenarios. Any proposed mitigation measures will be included in the Do Something scenarios. 2.4.4 As with the committed developments, the initial distribution for the strategic developments has been based on suitable existing model zones. These are shown in Table 2.9. Table 2.9 - Strategic Development Site Zone Distribution
ID Development Model Zone Distribution Zones
H1 Three Villages 424 35, 44, 330
H2 Angmering Site 109 425 116, 120, 121
H3 Angmering Site 82 426 114, 116, 117, 120
H4 Angmering Site 80 427 120, 121, 122, 125, 345
H5 Angmering Site 48 428 120, 121, 122, 125, 345
H6 Bognor Regis Eco-Quarter 429 29, 30, 34, 321, 322
H7 Westbank 430 127, 128, 130, 357, 129
W1 Westbank 431 127, 128, 130, 357, 129
W2 Salt Box (BREZ) 432 324, 323, 34, 325, 33
W3 Rowan Park Caravan Club (BREZ) 433 323, 324, 33, 30, 34, 325
W4 Oldlands Farm (BREZ) 434 324, 323, 325, 33, 40
W5 Former LEC Airfield (BREZ) 435 325, 36, 40, 324, 33, 37
W6 Angmering 436 116, 120, 121
2.4.5 In addition to the large strategic sites, a total of 1,350 new houses have been allocated to small scale parish sites within the study area. These have been modelled by including them as specific sites in the WSCTM Trip Generation tool. Where parishes comprise more than one zone, allocations have been split pro rata based on the existing spread of housing within the parishes. These sites are common to all option tests, and are not in themselves the subject of the assessment. 2.4.6 The smaller strategic sites are allocated as shown in Table 2.10.
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Table 2.10 - Smaller Strategic Housing Sites
ID Town/Parish Residential Units Zones
A1 Aldingbourne 30 44
A2 Aldwick 30 28, 341
A3 Angmering 100 121, 122
A4 Arundel 50 88
A5 Barnham 100 348
A6 Bersted 50 30, 33, 34, 343
A7 Bognor Regis 300 31, 32
A8 Eastergate 100 350
A9 East Preston 30 119, 123
A10 Ferring 50 118
A11 Littlehampton 200 128, 127, 129, 377
A12 Middleton-on-Sea 30 38, 346
A13 Pagham 100 27, 340
A14 Rustington 30 124, 125, 126
A15 Walberton 50 42
A16 Yapton 100 40
1,350
2.5 TEMPRO Adjustment 2.5.1 In total, an allocation of 4,840 households is modelled explicitly in the 2031 Option 2 scenario, so this total is deducted from the TEMPRO total to produce the Reference Case matrix. It is assumed that the strategic developments will be built at a linear rate, so with a 15-year plan period, strategic development will be 7/15 complete in 2020. This equates to a total of 2,259 houses deducted from the 2020 TEMPRO forecast total to generate the 2020 Reference Case.
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