United States Office of Research and EPA/600/R-00/098 Environmental Protection Development September 2000 Agency Washington DC 20460 www.epa.gov Projecting Land-Use Change A Summary of Models for Assessing the Effects of Community Growth and Change on Land-Use Patterns EPA/600/R-00/098 September 2000 www.epa.gov Projecting Land-Use Change: A Summary of Models for Assessing the Effects of Community Growth and Change on Land-Use Patterns Science Applications International Corporation 11251 Roger Bacon Drive Reston, VA 20190-5201 Contract #68-C7-0011 Project Officer Susan Schock U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Cincinnati, OH 45268 National Exposure Research Laboratory National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory National Risk Management Research Laboratory Office of Research and Development U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Washington, DC 20460 Notice The summaries of land-use change models contained within this report do not reflect the actual use of these products. Information presented on the function and capabilities of each model was collected largely through independent research of published materials such as users’ manuals and Internet sites. The model developers have reviewed and verified the information compiled for their specific products, ensuring the accuracy of the material presented in this report. Significant efforts were made to explore and incorporate all land-use models currently available for public use during the project period. However, the population of such models is continually changing and it is recognized that any compilation will ultimately exclude one or more relevant models. Preparation of this document has been funded wholly or in part by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. It has been subjected to the Agency’s review process, and has been approved for publication as NHEERL draft number OD-01-001. Mention of trade names or commercial products does not constitute endorsement or recommendation for use. This report should be cited as follows: U.S. EPA, 2000. Projecting Land-Use Change: A Summary of Models for Assessing the Effects of Community Growth and Change on Land-Use Patterns. EPA/600/R-00/098. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Research and Development, Cincinnati, OH. 260 pp. ii Acknowledgments This report reflects an uncommon degree of collaboration among the three laboratories of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Office of Research and Development (ORD), as well as selected program and regional offices across the Agency. Funding was provided by the Administrator’s Office of Congressional and Intergovernmental Relations (OCIR) and ORD’s National Exposure Research Laboratory (NERL), National Health and Environmental Effects Research Laboratory (NHEERL), and National Risk Management Research Laboratory (NRMRL). Laura Jackson of NHEERL directed the development of this report, with support from Jim Kreissl of NRMRL. Many thanks go to Linda Rimer for lead sponsorship through OCIR’s Sustainable Urban Environments Task Force. Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC), under contract to ORD, provided key technical support. Led by Cary Gaunt, SAIC’s staff included Kellie DuBay, Christine Garrow, Jana Lynott, Mary O’Kicki, Michael Palace, Daniel Sklarew, and Elizabeth Smeda. In addition, the following people made essential contributions to this report: Technical Workgroup (Laura Jackson, U.S. EPA National Health & Environmental Effects Research Laboratory) (Jim Kreissl, U.S. EPA National Risk Management Research Laboratory) Ron Matheny, U.S. EPA National Exposure Research Laboratory Peter Washburn, U.S. EPA Office of Congressional and Intergovernmental Relations (formerly) Mark Flory, U.S. EPA Office of Congressional and Intergovernmental Relations Geoff Anderson, U.S. EPA Office of Policy and Reinvention John Thomas, U.S. EPA Office of Policy (formerly) Victor McMahan, U.S. EPA Office of Air Vicki Sandiford, U.S. EPA Office of Air Mark Wolcott, U.S. EPA Office of Air Sumner Crosby, U.S. EPA Region III (formerly) Tom Brody, U.S. EPA Region V Steve Goranson, U.S. EPA Region V Michael Culp, U.S. Dept. of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration Tom Gunther, U.S. Dept. of Interior, Office of Water and Science Joe Tassone, Maryland Department of Planning Bernie Engel, Purdue University Dick Klosterman, University of Akron Bob Johnston, University of California-Davis Bryan Pijanowski, Michigan State University Eliot Allen, Criterion Planners/Engineers, Inc. iii Peer Reviewers Chris Bird, Alachua County, Florida Angela Harper, County of Henrico, Virginia Robert Holm, City of Indianapolis, Indiana John Schlegel, Clark County, Nevada Ellen Walkowiak, City of De Moines, Iowa Morgan Grove, USDA Forest Service Tracie Jackson, U.S. EPA Office of Air Model Developers Finally, grateful recognition goes to the model developers for their patience and helpfulness in providing two reviews and final approval of all model information. The name of each model developer is featured at the top of the respective model fact sheet in Section Five. iv Abstract Many potential clients for land-use change models, such as city and county planners, community groups, and environmental agencies, need better information on the features, strengths, and limitations of various model packages. Because of this growing need, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed a selective summary of 22 leading land- use change models currently in use or under development. Partners in scoping this effort include the U.S. Departments of Transportation and Interior, the academic and consulting communities, and multiple program and regional offices across EPA. EPA’s Office of Research and Development (ORD) initiated the land-use change models summary in order to improve its ability to assess and mitigate future risk to ecological systems, human health, and quality of life. Target user groups for this publication are: Community planners, citizens, and decision makers who are seeking tools to analyze future land-use scenarios; EPA program office and regional staff who support communities with planning tools and information for sustainable development; and ORD modelers and research planners who are currently assessing land-use models and gaps in the state of the science. v vi Contents Page Notice.................................................................... ii Acknowledgments.......................................................... iii Abstract...................................................................v 1.0 Using This Guide.......................................................1 1.1 What Does this Guide Cover? .......................................1 1.2 Who Should Use this Guide? ........................................2 1.3 How Should I Use this Guide? .......................................3 2.0 Background ...........................................................5 2.1 Defining Community...............................................5 2.2 Growing Pains ...................................................5 2.3 Asking the Right Questions .........................................6 2.4 Using the Right Tools..............................................8 3.0 Decision-Making Tools for a New Planning Approach ..........................11 3.1 Models: An Overview .............................................11 Land-Use Models ................................................11 Transportation Models............................................12 Economic Models ................................................12 Environmental Impact Models ......................................12 3.2 Geographic Information Systems (GISs) ..............................13 3.3 Integrated Planning and Decision-Making Systems ......................14 4.0 Selecting the Best Land-Use Model ........................................15 4.1 Step 1. Understanding the Proposal .................................16 4.2 Step 2. Asking the Right Questions..................................16 4.3 Step 3. Identifying Information Needs................................19 4.4 Step 4. Assessing Internal Capabilities ...............................20 4.5 Step 5. Choosing the Right Model (Using Selection Criteria) ...............20 5.0 Summarizing the Land-Use Models........................................27 5.1 Developing This Summary.........................................27 5.2 Land Use Models: Identified by Key Selection Criteria ...................31 5.3 Land Use Models: General Fact Sheets ..............................35 vii Appendix A Land Use Models: Comparative Matrices ........................... A-1 Appendix B Land Use Models: Technical Fact Sheets ........................... B-1 Appendix C Current Trends in Community Growth and Planning ...................C-1 1.0 Suburbanization: A Snapshot ..............................C-1 2.0 Changing Trends........................................C-2 3.0 Initiatives ..............................................C-3 3.1 State and Local Initiatives ............................C-4 3.2 Regional Initiatives .................................C-5 3.3 National Initiatives..................................C-6 4.0 The Future of Community Planning ..........................C-9 Appendix D Key Terms and Definitions .......................................D-1 Appendix E References .................................................. E-1 viii Exhibits Exhibit 1-1. Descriptive Outline of Guide Sections and Appendices ...................3 Exhibit 2-1. Questions Facing Growing