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Senate ‘Tossup’ Matthews, Yang Survey Has Lugar Leading Mourdock 42-35%, Tied Among GOP Voters GOP

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Senate ‘Tossup’ Matthews, Yang Survey Has Lugar Leading Mourdock 42-35%, Tied Among GOP Voters GOP V17, N29 Thursday, April 5, 2012 Howey/DePauw Poll: Senate ‘tossup’ Matthews, Yang survey has Lugar leading Mourdock 42-35%, tied among GOP voters GOP. It has prompted HPI to move By BRIAN A. HOWEY this race into “tossup” from “Leans INDIANAPOLIS - U.S. Lugar.” Sen. Dick Lugar is in the most The poll by Republican pollster precarious position of his political Christine Matthews of Bellwether career since autumn 1974 when Research and Democrat pollster Fred he unsuccessfully challenged Yang of Garin-Hart-Yang Research Democratic incumbent Birch Bayh. Group, was conducted March 26-28 A Howey/DePauw Indiana Battle- of 503 likely Republican primary vot- ground Poll released today reveals U.S. Sen. Dick Lugar answers questions from the ers and March 26 -27 of 503 likely Lugar with a 42-35% lead over press about his residency in February, while at Indiana general election voters. It Indiana Treasurer Richard Mour- right, a couple dozen supporters of challenger has a +/-4.5% margin of error. dock, with the two evenly split- Richard Mourdock rallied in the candidate’s home- The polling came after Lugar had ting the vote among the 72% of town of Evansville last weekend. (Photos by Brian primary voters identifying with the A. Howey and Tamara Keith of NPR). Continued on page 4 Primary composition key By CHRISTINE MATTHEWS Bellwether Research WASHINGTON – Our March 26-28 poll shows what everyone knows: Richard Lugar is in a tough battle to win ‘‘It wasn’t all of those groups the May 8 Republican primary. He leads Tea Party challenger Richard who were making the phone Mourdock by 7 points, but at 42%, his ballot support is far enough below calls in 2010 and 2011 asking me the 50% mark to be of significant concern. The make-or-break propo- to do this. It was the grassroots sition for Senator Lugar is going to of the Republican Party here in be the composition of the primary electorate. Indiana.” The fact that Indiana has - Treasurer Richard Mourdock HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 2 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 5, 2012 an open primary makes this narra- As to which candidate “shares tive different from Delaware, where in my values,” Lugar leads Mourdock by 2010 U.S. Sen. Mike Castle lost to Tea 8 points and has a 10-point advantage Party candidate Christine O’Donnell on “will get things done.” Mourdock in a closed Republican primary, or in is seen as running the more negative www.HoweyPolitics.com Utah, where U.S. Sen. Bob Bennett’s campaign by a nine-point margin. We fate was decided by fewer than 4,000 will track these attributes again on our GOP convention del- pre-primary poll. Howey Politics egates. Indiana The Repub- is a non-partisan newsletter lican Senate candi- based in Indianapolis. It was dates are tied among founded in 1994 in Fort Wayne. self-identified Repub- licans and among pri- mary faithful – those Brian A. Howey, Publisher who voted in both the Mark Schoeff Jr., Washington May 2008 and 2010 Jack E. Howey, editor Republican primaries. Beverly K. Phillips, associate However, among the 28% of the sample editor who identified as independent or as Subscriptions leaning Republican, $350 annually HPI Weekly Richard Lugar has a Republican pollster Christine Matthews speaks at DePauw 26 point advantage University on Super Tuesday. (DePauw Photo by Marilyn Culler) $550 annually HPI Weekly and (52%-26%). HPI Daily Wire. We were 'Call 317.627.6746 cautious in this survey and did not The fact that Richard Mour- ask self-identified Democrats the dock is not well known (40% have primary intention screen and thus no opinion of him and 17% have Contact HPI included none in this sample. How- never heard of him) can play out two Howey Politics Indiana ever, it is reasonable to believe that ways. One is that he has room to 6255 Evanston Ave. with nothing going on for them, some grow as voters get to know him and Indianapolis, IN 46220 Democrats will vote in the Republican that his poll numbers will get better www.howeypolitics.com primary. In Wisconsin this week, 11% as he becomes better known. The of GOP primary voters were Demo- other scenario is that Mourdock’s lack [email protected] crats and 30% independents; Illinois of identity is useful in serving as the 'Howey’s cell: 317.506.0883 had 6% who identified as Democrats “anti-Lugar” in that he can generi- 'Washington: 703.248.0909 and 26% as independents, and in cally represent change or people can 'Business Office: 317.627.6746 Ohio, 5% were Democrats and 26% project onto him ideal qualities. The independents. April 11 debate is an opportunity for Make no mistake though, our Mourdock to show himself as more © 2012, Howey Politics Indiana. poll shows that Indiana Republican than the “anti-Lugar” candidate and All rights reserved. Photocopy- primary voters are a conservative voters can judge him in a side-by-side ing, Internet forwarding, fax- bunch. Compared with other states comparison with the incumbent. ing or reproducing in any form, that have held Republican primaries Another factor to consider is whole or part, is a violation of this year, Indiana is more conserva- how active a role popular Gov. Mitch tive than any other non-Southern Daniels will yet play in the primary. federal law without permission state with 36% saying they are “very He has endorsed Senator Lugar, but from the publisher. v conservative.” And, outside of Iowa, there has been no TV ad. Usually Indiana has more evangelical Chris- endorsements are not that interesting; tians than any other non-Southern however, the governor is a rock star state. among Republicans. HOWEY Politics Indiana Page 3 Weekly Briefing on Indiana Politics Thursday, April 5, 2012 General Election Survey Lugar in the primary. It’s been working for Romney, but in With a 63% job approval rating among all voters, general, Republican primary voters aren’t responsive to this Mitch Daniels is among the most popular governors in the message. country (along with New Mexico’s Susana Martinez and New York Governor Andrew Cuomo). The majority (53%) Presidential GOP Primary of all voters think the state is heading in the right direction, At the time we were in the field (March 26-28) with compared with 26% who think the country is. Just 39% our Republican primary poll, the narrative was beginning approve of the job Barack Obama is doing as President, to shift from Santorum-Romney to Romney as nominee. which is worse than in private polling we conducted last It’s not surprising that during this consolidation period, summer. Independents give Obama a 41% approval rat- more than one-third of primary voters said they were ing, compared with 62% for unsure whom they plan Governor Daniels. to support for president If Mitt Romney is in Indiana’s May pri- the Republican nominee, mary contest. Santorum he would lead the president supporters slightly edge by nine points (49%-40%) Romney supporters among Hoosier voters, (27%-26%) and more whereas it’s a closer race might be unsure if their with Santorum (46%-41%). guy would still be alive Independent men lean and kicking by the time toward Romney 46%-42%, May 8 rolls around. The but independent women Gingrich (6%) and Paul back Obama 51%-34%. (6%) support has already In the gubernatorial dropped. What is most race, Democratic candidate interesting is that Rom- John Gregg and his mous- ney is the candidate of tache have yet to make an choice for Indianapolis imprint on voters: 71% and its suburbs, while have never heard of him, Santorum holds his which is little changed from own in the rest of the where he was a year ago. Mike Pence is better known and state. All the traditional constituency patterns are in place: leads Gregg by a 44%-31% margin. This early, our poll Santorum wins evangelicals (but not overwhelmingly) and simply lays the marker for this race as the candidates begin Romney wins college grads while Santorum leads among to campaign in earnest following the May primary. How- the less educated. ever, Pence starts out with a solid advantage. More interesting is how an active presidential In the U.S. Senate general election contest, former contest would play in the U.S. Senate primary. Romney Democratic congressman Joe Donnelly also begins as a supporters line up with Lugar, while Santorum’s are in relative unknown: 53% have never heard of him and sync with Mourdock. NBC’s Chuck Todd said a competitive another 24% have no opinion. He trails Richard Lugar by GOP presidential primary would be a nightmare for Sena- a 29%-50% margin (perennial Libertarian candidate Andy tor Lugar, but I disagree. The Santorum/Mourdock voters Horning nets 7%). Lugar wins independent voters by a are going to turn out anyway – because they are the base 20-point margin and soundly beats Donnelly in Indianapo- and because the NRA, FreedomWorks, and Club for Growth lis, an area Democrats must carry. Donnelly only performs will make sure of it. What benefits Lugar is for the Romney well in the northwest quadrant of the state which includes micro-targeting and turn-out machine to be in full force. If Lake, St. Joseph and Porter counties. Romney is cruising, they may take a less active role in turn- Against Richard Mourdock, however, Donnelly ties ing out their supporters and these people are more likely with 35% of the vote (7% for Horning). Donnelly has a to stay home if they think Romney has the nomination 20-point advantage in Indianapolis and increases his mar- wrapped up.
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