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National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S This PDF is available from The National Academies Press at http://www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12914 National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces ISBN Committee on National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. 978-0-309-15425-3 Naval Forces; National Research Council 226 pages 6 x 9 PAPERBACK (2011) Visit the National Academies Press online and register for... Instant access to free PDF downloads of titles from the NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING INSTITUTE OF MEDICINE NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL 10% off print titles Custom notification of new releases in your field of interest Special offers and discounts Distribution, posting, or copying of this PDF is strictly prohibited without written permission of the National Academies Press. Unless otherwise indicated, all materials in this PDF are copyrighted by the National Academy of Sciences. Request reprint permission for this book Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces Committee on National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces Naval Studies Board Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Contract No. N00014-05-G-0288, DO #25 between the National Academy of Sciences and the Department of the Navy. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-15425-3 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-15425-1 Copies of this report are available from: Naval Studies Board, National Research Council, The Keck Center of the National Acad- emies, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Room WS904, Washington, DC 20001; and The National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu. Copyright 2011 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Charles M. Vest is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibil- ity given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scien- tific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. Charles M. Vest are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces COMMITTEE ON NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE FOR U.S. NAVAL FORCES FRANK L. BOWMAN, Strategic Decisions, LLC, Co-Chair ANTONIO J. BUSALACCHI, JR., University of Maryland, Co-Chair ARTHUR B. BAGGEROER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology CECILIA M. BITZ, University of Washington SHARON E. BURKE, Center for a New American Security (through June 22, 2010) RONALD FILADELFO, Center for Naval Analyses JEFFREY M. GARRETT, Mercer Island, Washington HARRY W. JENKINS, JR., Gainesville, Virginia CATHERINE M. KELLEHER, University of Maryland and Brown University MAHLON C. KENNICUTT II, Texas A&M University RONALD R. LUMAN, Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University W. BERRY LYONS, Ohio State University JAMES J. McCARTHY, Harvard University MICHAEL J. McPHADEN, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration JOHN H. MOXLEY III, Solvang, California DAVID J. NASH, Dave Nash & Associates, LLC HEIDI C. PERRY, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Inc. J. MARSHALL SHEPHERD, University of Georgia CHARLES F. WALD, Deloitte Services, LLP DAVID A. WHELAN, The Boeing Company CARL WUNSCH, Massachusetts Institute of Technology Staff CHARLES F. DRAPER, Director, Naval Studies Board BILLY M. WILLIAMS, Study Director RAYMOND S. WIDMAYER, Senior Program Officer MARTA V. HERNANDEZ, Associate Program Officer SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Coordinator MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer SEKOU O. JACKSON, Senior Program Assistant SIDNEY G. REED, JR., Consultant iv Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces NAVAL STUDIES BOARD MIRIAM E. JOHN, Livermore, California, Chair DAVID A. WHELAN, The Boeing Company, Vice Chair CHARLES R. CUSHING, C.R. Cushing & Co., Inc. SUSAN HACKWOOD, California Council on Science and Technology LEE M. HAMMARSTROM, Applied Research Laboratory, Pennsylvania State University JAMES L. HERDT, Chelsea, Alabama KERRIE L. HOLLEY, IBM Global Services BARRY M. HOROWITZ, University of Virginia JAMES D. HULL, Annapolis, Maryland LEON A. JOHNSON, Irving, Texas EDWARD H. KAPLAN, Yale University CATHERINE M. KELLEHER, University of Maryland and Brown University JERRY A. KRILL, Applied Physics Laboratory, Johns Hopkins University THOMAS V. McNAMARA, Textron Systems Corporation JOSEPH PEDLOSKY, Woods Hole, Massachusetts HEIDI C. PERRY, Charles Stark Draper Laboratory, Inc. GENE H. PORTER, Nashua, New Hampshire JOHN S. QUILTY, Oakton, Virginia J. PAUL REASON, Washington, D.C. JOHN E. RHODES, Balboa, California JOHN P. STENBIT, Oakton, Virginia TIMOTHY M. SWAGER, Massachusetts Institute of Technology JAMES WARD, Lincoln Laboratory, Massachusetts Institute of Technology ELIHU ZIMET, Gaithersburg, Maryland Navy Liaison Representatives RADM BRIAN C. PRINDLE, USN, Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N81 RADM NEVIN P. CARR, JR., Chief of Naval Research/Office of the Chief of Naval Operations, N091 Marine Corps Liaison Representative LTGEN GEORGE J. FLYNN, USMC, Commanding General, Marine Corps Combat Development Command v Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces Staff CHARLES F. DRAPER, Director RAYMOND S. WIDMAYER, Senior Program Officer BILLY M. WILLIAMS, Senior Program Officer MARTA V. HERNANDEZ, Associate Program Officer SUSAN G. CAMPBELL, Administrative Coordinator MARY G. GORDON, Information Officer SEKOU O. JACKSON, Senior Program Assistant SIDNEY G. REED, JR., Consultant vi Copyright © National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. National Security Implications of Climate Change for U.S. Naval Forces Preface A 2007 report by the CNA Corporation, based on a study conducted by for- mer flag and general officers, concluded that worldwide climate effects could have major consequences for the military.1 In testimony provided before the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations in May 2007, it was noted that “projected climate change poses a serious threat to America’s national
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